Long Game 54: Cognitive Diversions

[Lumgol]

Although I see the reasoning against Lopen, for now, I still think he's village. And I disagree with the statement that he's been staying "under the radar", since several people have analyzed his posts and paid attention to them. Being consistently read as village in people's analysis is quite different from not being analyzed in the first place. 

@TheMightyLopen, I think that it would greatly help if you shared some more reasoning for your trusts and suspicions, just focus in on some more specific people instead of generally listing everyone and saying that you think they're village/elim. A lot of why I trust you comes from your detailed analysis D1 and although I've seen a lot of activity from you after that, it seems to mostly skim through your reads rather than really explaining them, and that can read as elim, since elims can't genuinely suspect people. Your tone, to me, reads very village, but the change in your style from detailed analysis to listing a few gut reads does follow the same pattern as what would be expected from a convert.

I'm not sure who to vote for at this point, but, let's not lynch an active player who has, in fact, been contributing. I'd definitely like to hear more about your reads. When you say "village read" or "elim read", what led you to come to that conclusion? 

[TheMightyLopen]

3 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Cause those were what I had, fire and oil.

And I knew for sure they would do that, as it was in the rules as an example.

Also, I was pretty tired and didn't know what else to do.

Ok thanks, I was just curious.

2 hours ago, Lumgol said:

Although I see the reasoning against Lopen, for now, I still think he's village. And I disagree with the statement that he's been staying "under the radar", since several people have analyzed his posts and paid attention to them. Being consistently read as village in people's analysis is quite different from not being analyzed in the first place. 

@TheMightyLopen, I think that it would greatly help if you shared some more reasoning for your trusts and suspicions, just focus in on some more specific people instead of generally listing everyone and saying that you think they're village/elim. A lot of why I trust you comes from your detailed analysis D1 and although I've seen a lot of activity from you after that, it seems to mostly skim through your reads rather than really explaining them, and that can read as elim, since elims can't genuinely suspect people. Your tone, to me, reads very village, but the change in your style from detailed analysis to listing a few gut reads does follow the same pattern as what would be expected from a convert.

I'm not sure who to vote for at this point, but, let's not lynch an active player who has, in fact, been contributing. I'd definitely like to hear more about your reads. When you say "village read" or "elim read", what led you to come to that conclusion? 

My previous list wasn't a traditional village/elim list though. It was a "potential Sja-Anat/not Sja-Anat" list. Any of the players on the "not Sja-Anat" side could be elims at this point, I was just saying I didn't think they were Sja-Anat for the various reasons I posted. I guess I could try to post a village/elim read list, but I won't have time until late tonight(like, 10 hours from now or something) because I'm going to work right now. In the mean time, I'm hoping some other people will actually vote! And not on me...

[Furamirionind]

I know I said I was going to take a harder look at Lopen, but when I started to look at him, I just started feeling like he was village again.  So I decided to look at Rath.

Now, Rath has done 2 big analysis posts as of this moment.

D1:

Lopen had a lengthy response to this post, which dramatically shaped my opinion of Lopen, and slightly modified my opinion of Rath:

Going through Rath's analysis from previous games, when talking about meta stuff, Rath often times uses words like "i think" or "believe" or "opinion".  However when doing player analysis, he is very fact focused, and rarely uses those words.  When I first read Lopen's post, I kind of dismissed it as that is just how people naturally speak in Seattle.  However, looking at Rath's history, it seems out of place.

This is Rath's response to Elandera saying that his vote has little substance.  It is also written much more like how I would expect Rath to talk.  Rath also seems to have a history (at least in the games I have played with him) of doubling down on his vote when it is questioned, so this is also very like him.  However, I am not fond of the language, "Fifth's criticism of Lum is slowly swaying my thoughts that way...".  It sounds almost as if when he cast the vote he didn't think Lum was elim.

N2:

These sort of summaries are something that I have seen Rath do a couple times now.  However, the conclusions that Rath comes to after the summary does not directly correlate to what is said in the post.  The post goes through what everyone does and summarizes that, however, few conclusions and little analysis is actually shared.  At the end of the post, Rath says what his alignment leanings are on the various players, but doesn't say why.  None of these (except possibly Devotary), have clear reasons described in the post.

Looking at some previous times Rath has done something similar:

LG51:

This was a bit more specialized than what we see in this game.  It also describes fewer events in more detail.  While similar, this is still a very different post, so I won't emphasis it too much.

LG50:

This post is basically the same kind, a summary of the past (couple) turn's events. The difference here is that the summary at the end goes into more detail about Rath's opinions, and why he has those opinions. Not a ton, bust still more than just saying "village lean on playerX"

---

Not all of what I say here is substantial, but all of this together (and the sudden lynch discussion on Lopen instead of Rath, who I think should be being discussed instead), will direct me to put my vote on him.

Shqueeves

Rathmaskal

 

[Rathmaskal]

-Elandera
--Notes that Sart was able to prove vote manipulation - OK, this is...interesting.  The fact that there was vote manipulation that Sart said would be there only proves that Sart had knowledge of vote manipulation.  I'm sure most of you see where I'm going here, but since we were told that it wasn't guaranteed that Sja-Anat was the only elim to start the game, it's possible that there was another elim with vote manipulation.  There is a possibility this was Sart...and there's a possibility that Sart is Sja-Anat and had a sidekick Inkspren mess with the votes.

-Randuir
--Following up with Elandera saying that it just proves Sart is not Sja-Anat - again, not true.

-CadCom
--Catches that Sart could be Sja-Anat as well. - OK, so my points were addressed.  Thanks everyone.

-Dr. Dapper
--More RP

-TheMightyLopen
--Notes that he doesn't like the lynch on Coop, but does understand it.  Also wants to hear more from people who didn't vote - Well, I don't really like the lynch on Coop either now...haha, but I agree that inactives always make games more difficult.

-Lumgol
--Notes that Xino and Ark didn't post D1 but Snipexe did - Info

-Snipexe
--Apologizes for inactivity and notes that he's suspicious of Sart's long post - I think this is in reference to the post that complains about CadCom's lack of vote.  If so, I agree

Aaaaaaaaand, night cycles are a lot quicker to analyze.

So, not much to talk about here.  Obviously we know that Elandera flipped village, so nothing to read into the faulty logic there, but the responses from Randuir and CadCom make the same points I was going to bring up (I had a slightly longer analysis of this typed up before I read their responses and saw that they had already hit my points)  Lopen's post is tough.  Looking back at the rules, there's nothing that says that the Sja-Anat conversion couldn't happen as a day action, so it's possible that whoever Sja-Anat is could have identified Lopen as the move village-sounding person and converted immediately.  Anyway, for now, I'm going to place a vote on Sart as I continue my next read through the thread.  (With the extended rollover, I should be able to get through everything so assuming this vote stays, it will be based on more information than just C1.)

As for @Furamirionind's (Tagged since I'm not going to directly quote the post...just creates too much clutter to clean up) vote on me.there are two things I'd like to follow up on.

• Quote

  It sounds almost as if when he cast the vote he didn't think Lum was elim.

   
  • I mean, it's D1.  If I'm 30% convinced someone is an elim and no more than 20% convinced of anyone else, I'll probably vote for the 30% person at that point.  But that still leaves me thinking that person is more likely to be village than elim.

• Quote

  These sort of summaries are something that I have seen Rath do a couple times now.  However, the conclusions that Rath comes to after the summary does not directly correlate to what is said in the post.  The post goes through what everyone does and summarizes that, however, few conclusions and little analysis is actually shared.  At the end of the post, Rath says what his alignment leanings are on the various players, but doesn't say why.  None of these (except possibly Devotary), have clear reasons described in the post.

   
  • Anything I thought worthy of analysis I gave analysis when I posted.  Basically, anything after ' - ' is my commentary.  And I'm not sure what summary doesn't match up with my analysis.  I guess I could have been a bit more harsh on Dr. Dapper in my summary?

Edit 2: I think people realize, but I just realized I didn't specify that this was specifically a N1 analysis

Edited April 25, 2019 by Rathmaskal
Forgot a dash

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I'm not quite sure how Ark would have missed Snipexe claiming Cryptic, but it is possible that was the case. Admitting to being the one to burn Snipexe instead of letting suspicion remain on those with Division seems village though, and claiming Stonespren after what happened to the Fifth makes me inclined to believe Ark is telling the truth about his spren type. While Stonespren was used as a false claim because of how difficult it is to prove, there's a chance Ark will be able to prove his role with Cohesion or Tension.

Lopen hasn't had a lot of strong opinions about who is guilty, but he has been defending people who were under suspicion, disagreeing with the lynches on Lumgol, Coop, and Fifth. The attempted vote for Levitaph D2 was likely a bond vote given that Lopen listed him as neutral-village the following turn, but does indicate that Lopen didn't support the bandwagon on Fifth that turn. Lopen supposedly used both his actions C1(unless it's possible to start with three essences) to create liquid metal from fire, oil, and metal. While someone would either need to use transformation or acquire and fuse essences to test this combination, I feel that an eliminator would rather take the confirmed cycle roleblock and stormlight drain of fire+oil than spend extra time and resources experimenting.

I get what Sart said about reviewing being overrated. Reading and rereading everyone's posts for the whole game rarely gives me any new insight; instead it just confuses me and overwhelms what evidence is to be found with extraneous data. It's why Rath's procedure of looking at and attempting to analyse every single post one by one doesn't work for me. If I'm not looking for anything in particular, I generally won't find anything to change my pre-existing opinions. With that in mind, I will be trying to change my current opinions of the people Fifth listed as possibly being Sja-Anat.

[Lumgol]

I believe there's only 4 votes so far.

Lopen (2) - Ark, Sart

Sart (1) - Rath

Rath (1) - Fura

[+Ark1002]

I think that's true yes.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I might as well do my zero-research observations/opinions of Fifth's nine Sja-Anat suspects as a baseline. From what I can tell, inclusion on this list was purely a matter of not having a believable roleclaim, and those who didn't roleclaim at all tended to be near the bottom of the list. CadCom has proven his role, the chances of Sja-Anat starting the game with an Inkspren ally are low enough to be discarded here, and Fura's chances of being Sja-Anat are nearly as low. Additional information from PMs will not be present in this preliminary review.

9. Snipexe(Cryptic)- With Ark claiming to have burned Snipexe, Fura's elim-elim theory looks less likely. Snipexe was not under any particular suspicion at the time he claimed(though it was enough for Ark), so claiming Cryptic would be a poor move for Sja-Anat!Snipexe if he couldn't prove it, and a premature one if he could fake it. Likely a real Cryptic.
8. xinoehp512- Has so many non-SE posts that it will be difficult to isolate the relevant ones. Hasn't done too much from what I can remember other than asking people to reveal their starting essences. More content would be appreciated.
7. Ark1002(Stonespren)- Though Stonespren is a difficult role to prove, I do still believe that owning up to being the one to burn Snipexe is a village move. While I didn't like his D2 voting patterns, I'm not sure Sja-Anat would be that pliable.
6. Levitaph- Went strongly after Lumgol days 1 and 2 for what largely appears to be disagreements with Lumgol's tone and overly *helpful* attitude in the beginning of the game. Switched to Fifth at the end of D2, as lying was apparently the greater misdeed. Continued a crusade against Lumgol last night, but hasn't brought the topic up today. Suspicious of role swaps, which is the main reason Levitaph ended up on this list. Continued focus on one player isn't necessarily bad, but taking alternatives into account is beneficial, even if those alternatives are rejected and the ultimate conclusion remains the same. 
5. Lopen- I believe Lopen started out as a Truespren, mostly based on my previous statements.
4. Shqueeves- Inactivity caused by wisdom tooth removal. Claimed to be quite determined to bond a Radiant, but there's no indication on whether that was successful, and a 55% chance of failure even with full activity, it would be easy for Sja-Anat to hide the fact that she is incapable of using surges for a few cycles.
3. Rath- Refused to role swap with Fifth, and ended up very low on this list as a result. Had a bit of a shift from supporting Fifth's opinions during the early part of D1, to retracting that support and eventually turning on Fifth during D2. Has been hesitant to commit to any particular vote, though of course that could be said for many players, including myself. I'm not convinced that going through every post for each turn is helpful.
2. Dr. Dapper- Nobody has taken responsibility for being the one to burn Dr. Dapper. CadCom mentioned that he didn't want to burn anyone so far, so there's a decent chance someone else was involved. If he is evil, the elims presumably don't have anyone with Progression. Was interested in sharing the results of item creation. I cannot recall any significant suspicions from Dapper other than countervoting Ark D2.
1. Lumgol- Aside from early statements about mechanics and general strategy, Lumgol has spent most of the game defending herself and being very willing to vote for counter bandwagons for self-preservation. As there are currently no votes for Lumgol, it's time for her to express more opinions about other players.

That leaves my new list, with the same ordering scheme, as 9. Snipexe 8. Lopen 7. Ark 6. Levitaph 5. Xinoehp 4. Shqueeves 3. Dapper 2. Lumgol 1. Rath Everything from 1-6 is pretty arbitrary and will likely change upon review and hopefully contributions from the less active members of this list.

[TheMightyLopen]

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

I believe there's only 4 votes so far.

Lopen (2) - Ark, Sart

Sart (1) - Rath

Rath (1) - Fura

Thanks for the vote tally(you forgot my vote though!), but don't forget to add your vote somewhere!  There's probably been a conversion or 2 so far, so this is the best time for us to try and draw out the elims by putting pressure on them with the lynch. Updated vote tally, and keep in mind that Sart has vote manipulation:

Lopen (2 or 3) - Ark, Sart
Sart (1) - Rath
Rath (2) - Fura, Lopen
No vote (9) - Lumgol, Xino, Snipexe, Devotary, Levitaph, Shqueeves, Cadcom, Dr Dapper

I bolded Xino and Shqueeves because they haven't posted yet, but everyone else, please vote!

Personally, my guesses for conversions would be Sart and/or Fura, with Devotary as another option(if I'm remembering correctly, he pretty much always gets converted in conversion games ). Sart for his role and Fura for his influence in the thread and general trustedness. What's worrisome about Sart to me is that he's gone after very active villagers the past 2 lynches. First was Fifth, who was imo acting as a sort of village leader, and now he's going after me. That's not to mention that the elims just killed Rand, another very active villager. If we only have half of the players participating in the voting, the elims could very easily control the lynches with Sart's vote manipulation.

Ninja'd by Devotary...I mostly agree with the order of suspicion, although I think I'd switch Levitaph and Xino, simply because Xino really hasn't been around much, and I'd expect the main eliminator to at least have a semblance of activity. Anyways, with all of this in mind, I think I will remove my vote from Ark, and I'll move over to Rath. I was considering moving to Sart, for the reasons I mentioned up above, but similarly to Fura, Sart just feels too obvious to actually be an eliminator. Also, I'd have to vote alongside Rath who I'm obviously not very trusting of. I thought it was good of Rath that he was posting a bunch of analysis, but I could see it being a sort of front. Like, he wants to post to seem helpful, so he decides to just go post by post as a sort of "safe" option(rather than having to post a village/elim reads list for example). I know that I sometimes have trouble finding things to post about as an elim, so having something to fall back on(such as a post-by-post analysis) could be useful to make me seem more active than I actually am. I'm not sure how much I'd hold it against him that he didn't role swap, because role swapping in a conversion game is extra dangerous, but it doesn't help his case any.

[+Ark1002]

So when is rollover again?

[Rathmaskal]

Since a couple people in a row are questioning my post-by-post analysis...  The reason I'm going so deliberately through everything is because this is a conversion game.  Yes, I could read through and just provide summaries of everything, but having a detailed record of everything seems a bit more likely to catch a change in tone from someone.  But, if you think it's getting too cumbersome to read through, I can pivot to another form of analysis and keep the more granular notes I'm putting together to myself.

[Steeldancer]

So, rollover is going to be at 7 EDT, same as rollover was previously. However, this might change some turns, depending on my work schedule and Mailliws availability. So that means you have about 8 hours to lynch someone and submit any actions. 

[xinoehp512]

Sorry for being inactive. Trying to analyze always makes my brain hurt, so I don't do it nearly as much as I should (i.e. at all). 

[Steeldancer]

Oh, wait, I'm an idiot. No, 7 EDT is not the same as 9 MDT. Ignore that part. It's still ending at 7 EDT. so, 7 hours and 50 minutes. Get voting. And submit more actions. 

[+Ark1002]

So... 

4:00 PST?

[Snipexe]

11 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

So... 

4:00 PST?

Yup

[Rathmaskal]

Wait, I didn't RP my last couple posts?  It is all planned child.  There is RP in not RPing.

---

OK, so here's another type of analysis to think about:

The Fifth lynch.  Wth just over an hour left, the vote was something like this (Note, I may have missed a vote movement or two, but I'm starting with the votecount posted at the top of page 9 of the full thread):

• Lum (3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark
• Dapper (0): Lum (Had already moved vote to Ark)
• Fifth (1): Sart
• Ark (2): Dapper, Lum
• Levitaph (1): CadCom
• Rath (1): Devotary

The final round of votes:

• Dapper - Fifth (66 minutes remaining in cycle)
• Rath - Fifth (60 minutes)
• Lum - Fifth (58 minutes)
• Fura - Fifth (57 minutes)
• Levitaph - Fifth (13 minutes)
• Lopen - Levitaph (after cycle, so wasn't counted)

So, this was D2, so even if Sja-Anat was riding along to start the game, we could have 3 elims. 

Point 1: I know that my strategy as elim would be to make sure there isn't an obvious connection between votes, so I think that among me, Lum, Dapper, and Fura, there will be a maximum of 2 elims...  (Yes, I know I sometimes get into trouble focusing on small groups...but I think I'm doing this slightly more intelligently)

Point 2: I feel like Lum is the tipping point of a decent amount of information in this game.  There was a lot of back and forth between Fifth and Lum D1.  Eventually Fifth was lynched but Lum is still around.  Lum was the vote leader coming into the last ~hour of the cycle and has been involved in influencing a lot of the conversation so far.

So, Sart, Lum

Updated Vote Count:

• Ark (1) - Lopen
• Lopen (2) - Sart, Ark
• Shqueeves () - Fura
• Rath (2) - Fura, Lopen
• Sart () - Rath
• Lum (1) - Rath

[Lumgol]

So there's 3 ways that I see the lynch going: Lopen, Rath, and Sart.
(Ninja'd by Rath voting on me. Now Sart doesn't have any votes, so he's out.)

All I've gotten from Rath lately are village reads. I see no problem with his day-by-day analysis - people have pointed out that there's little actual analysis at the end, but most of Rath's thoughts are commentary on the posts themselves. Furthermore, Rath has provided a different style of analysis after people expressed their dissatisfaction with it. Rath's vote on me does seem to be based largely on the fact that I've been driving conversation, which I don't like, but I'd say the reasoning there is not wrong.

As much as I dislike rapidly changing opinions and going back on what I've said before, upon thinking, Lopen seems like a good candidate for a convert and the only person whose behavior at this point would warrant a lynch. It would make sense for an early convert to go from strong, detailed analysis and all-around village reads D1 to quietly hiding out and posting vague reads afterward. Players with village reads at the beginning are good candidates for conversion in general, too.

[Rathmaskal]

10 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Rath's vote on me does seem to be based largely on the fact that I've been driving conversation, which I don't like, but I'd say the reasoning there is not wrong.

Yeah, sorry, I didn't articulate myself very well there.  There are three points (two rather related) that I think are driving my vote here (And I'm going to refer to you by 'Lum' rather than 'you' for clarity purposes in case someone decides to quote this later).  In order:

1. The Fifth/Lum D1 back and forth partly resulted in a villager being lynched.
2. Lum has been the leading lynch candidate for D1 and D2 with a large swing near the end of the cycle resulting in a different lynch.
3. Lum has been influencing a decent amount of the conversation and who should be focused on.  We can garner some decent information on these people based on how Lum flips.

As I re-read this, point 3 provides a much less compelling argument to me...and I didn't even barely mention point 2 in my previous post.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Rathmaskal
correction (left original wording in strikethrough)

[+Ark1002]

Lum (1): Rath

Lopen (3): Sart, Ark, Lum

Rath (2): Fura, Lopen

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

Rath's vote on me does seem to be based largely on the fact that I've been driving conversation, which I don't like, but I'd say the reasoning there is not wrong.

I struggle with lines like this. Your first sentence is basically saying that Rath's argument for your lynch is insubstantial, yet your second sentence is saying that it is?

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

As much as I dislike rapidly changing opinions and going back on what I've said before, upon thinking, Lopen seems like a good candidate for a convert and the only person whose behavior at this point would warrant a lynch. It would make sense for an early convert to go from strong, detailed analysis and all-around village reads D1 to quietly hiding out and posting vague reads afterward.

I hesitate to defend Lopen more than I already have, as I risk getting myself into a mindset that I *should* defend him, even when there is little evidence.  However, Lopen is not sitting quietly in the background.  He is still contributing and voting early in cycles.  While he hasn't posted another post analyzing a specific post from someone, he is still posting analysis.  In his most recent post, he talked about voting (how people should do it more), who may have been converted, and then reflects on Devotary's analysis on who may be Sja-Anat.  I agree Lopen would be a good convert target, but right now, I would go after people who seem suspicious or have a higher chance of being Sja-Anat (we may still be able to hit an extra life).

 

My first thought when reading Lum's post was that this seems to be two elims (Lum and Rath) distancing in the wake of a likely lynch on one or both of them, as there has been a lot of suspicion on Lum and Rath, and in Devotary's post, she still lists them (if I understand her list) as Rath being most likely to be Sja-Anat, followed by Lumgol.  This sort of thing would be scary for the elim team to see, especially if one of them actually is Sja-Anat. 
My immediate response to my thinking this could be distancing, is Rath's analysis and vote on Lum seems rather convincing to me.  This gives us several possible scenarios:

1. Village!Rath || Village!Lum - Unfortunate circumstance... Bad reads by everyone on everyone basically. Bandwagon on Fifth likely then had nothing to do with Lum. I personally think this is unlikely though given Lum's response to Rath… The more I look at Lum, the more I think she may be evil.
2. Village!Rath || Elim!Lum - Rath doing good analysis and catching Lum.  I think Lum would likely have been the C1 convert due to using her village playstyle at the start of the game. Once it was pointed out she acts more enthusiastic as a villager though, her playstyle this game becomes a big IKYK, as she knows we are looking for her to seem "enthusiastic", and can deliver that.  That alone is no longer a good reason to keep her alive in my opinion.
3. Elim!Rath || Village!Lum - Rath sees a bandwagon on himself and is probably trying to divert it onto Lum.  This could work, however once Lum flips village, eyes will turn back to Rath. This only helps short term, where a bus at this point may help more long term assuming he is not Sja-Anat
4. Elim!Rath || Elim!Lum - This is the most exciting option, and likely has Rath as Sja-Anat as he and Lum are trying to keep him alive so hard.  Pushing the lynch on Lopen due to being a likely convert, is an easy way to create mislynches on good villagers. (I would know, as I did something similar in MR32 where I suspected people for "not dying the turn it would have made the most sense")

---

All this being said, nothing I say here is conclusive.  In fact most of it is speculation.  But Lum's post feels *really* out of place to me, and this is the best I could do to describe why.  I will definitely be voting for either Rath or Lum this cycle, but am a bit conflicted about which one.  Out of the two, I think Rath has a significantly greater chance for being Sja-Anat, but I think Lum's death will provide us more information about the elims (whether or not she is one).

Edited April 26, 2019 by Furamirionind
removed the last line of my post as no one is in the thread. And said something I probably shouldn't have as a general rule.

[CadCom]

So unfortunately I havent had time to do any analysis of my own this cycle. I had a final presentation, a large final paper, at least one other final project and multiple large tests this week. To top it off, I'm also still studying for my finals. So I'm going most purely off the analyses posted in thread. And I'll admit that I am questioning Lopen's for various reasons. But it is just questioning. I believe the rath/lum discussion has more potential to provide us more valuable information, while still potentially catching an elim.

For now I'm going to vote lumgol  because that provides a close situation, where the leader doesnt change, but puts both lum and rath in a hotspot, to hopefully be decided by someone who has done more analysis than me. 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder
Vote formatting was originally done wrong.

[Lumgol]

48 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

My first thought when reading Lum's post was that this seems to be two elims (Lum and Rath) distancing in the wake of a likely lynch on one or both of them, as there has been a lot of suspicion on Lum and Rath, and in Devotary's post, she still lists them (if I understand her list) as Rath being most likely to be Sja-Anat, followed by Lumgol. 

How is it distancing if all throughout the game, I've been defending Rath? I get that Rath might be distancing by suspecting me. However, Rath has been suspecting me since D1. Sja-anat!Rath would then be framing me (by voting on me, etc) and then converting me. That seems like a strange move for an elim, and not something that I would expect. People who are chosen as converts are generally under little to no suspicion, and even though the lynch ended up swinging away from me D1, multiple people expressed their ongoing suspicion of me afterward.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

• The Fifth/Lum D1 back and forth partly resulted in a villager being lynched.
• Lum has been the leading lynch candidate for D1 and D2 with a large swing near the end of the cycle resulting in a different lynch.
• Lum has been influencing a decent amount of the conversation and who should be focused on.  We can garner some decent information on these people based on how Lum flips.

I would assume at most two players started out as evil, Sja-Anat and an initial convert or Sja-Anat alone, which means that if Lumgol is evil there couldn't have been very many fellow eliminators. Since Randuir and Elandera were villagers, we know that the two main D1 swings to Coop and Sart wasn't started by an eliminator. Your vote and mine cemented Coop as a leading lynchee, while CadCom and Dapper hopped aboard the Sart train. I highly doubt that Sja-Anat started out with a Highspren ally with access to Division, so that lynch looks to have had clean origins, which means that the D1 swings are pretty much only an attempt to save a teammate if Rath and Lumgol started out evil together. The D2 swing had Sart suggest that Fifth wasn't a Stonespren, with not totally solid evidence, and four people jumping on that lynch before Fifth or I could confirm that he wasn't a Stonespren(I don't think my confirming that helped particularly much). I don't believe elim!Sart would have tried that if he wasn't sure that Fifth was lying about being a Stonespren, and if he was sure he would have provided more convincing evidence, so I'd lean towards the people who jumped on that train with little provocation of being evil assuming elim!Lum. I know I told Fura about Fifth's lie before Fura placed a vote, so that leaves us with Dapper and Rath as possible suspects. Ultimately, if there was an attempt to save elim!Lumgol from lynches, the highest probability teammate is Rath.

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

My first thought when reading Lum's post was that this seems to be two elims (Lum and Rath) distancing in the wake of a likely lynch on one or both of them, as there has been a lot of suspicion on Lum and Rath, and in Devotary's post, she still lists them (if I understand her list) as Rath being most likely to be Sja-Anat, followed by Lumgol.  This sort of thing would be scary for the elim team to see, especially if one of them actually is Sja-Anat. 
My immediate response to my thinking this could be distancing, is Rath's analysis and vote on Lum seems rather convincing to me.  This gives us several possible scenarios:

My list was not quite as ordered as it appeared; it had mostly trusted in the 9-7 positions, Levitaph thrown in there, the inactives all in a row, and the most suspicious players at 1 and 2. We do have some interesting interactions between Rath and Lum, which appears to be 'Rath votes on Lum for not very sturdy reasons, and Lum supports him for it.' If that is distancing, it's one-way, and would suggest that Rath is the more valuable elim. (I wrote this before I wrote my earlier part, and now it seems that while Rath has voted for Lum, he has also been instrumental in swinging lynches away from Lum.) Lum's latest vote for Lopen seems like a case where she wanted to vote for Sart, then realised that the only people with votes were Lopen and Rath and had to backtrack on her earlier support for Lopen. I'd be willing to vote for either Rath or Lum, but for now, given that Rath could easily switch to Lopen, I feel more comfortable voting for Rath.

 

 

[TheMightyLopen]

3 hours ago, Lumgol said:

So there's 3 ways that I see the lynch going: Lopen, Rath, and Sart.
(Ninja'd by Rath voting on me. Now Sart doesn't have any votes, so he's out.)

All I've gotten from Rath lately are village reads. I see no problem with his day-by-day analysis - people have pointed out that there's little actual analysis at the end, but most of Rath's thoughts are commentary on the posts themselves. Furthermore, Rath has provided a different style of analysis after people expressed their dissatisfaction with it. Rath's vote on me does seem to be based largely on the fact that I've been driving conversation, which I don't like, but I'd say the reasoning there is not wrong.

As much as I dislike rapidly changing opinions and going back on what I've said before, upon thinking, Lopen seems like a good candidate for a convert and the only person whose behavior at this point would warrant a lynch. It would make sense for an early convert to go from strong, detailed analysis and all-around village reads D1 to quietly hiding out and posting vague reads afterward. Players with village reads at the beginning are good candidates for conversion in general, too.

I haven't been hiding out!? What are you talking about? Vague reads are all anyone has, and I feel like I've laid out my thoughts as clear as I can and as often as I can.

Anyways, I'm at work, still sick, so I'm not gonna be posting any long posts for the rest of the Day.