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Mid-Range Game 34: Death by Lantern Light


Sart

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2 minutes ago, Sart said:

To clarify. When there is a struggle over the gun, no one gets the gun. Only one player is lucky enough to survive the encounter, and the ammunition is wasted in the struggle.

Oh yeah! :P I should have realized that in the PM. That's what happens when I just glance at it.

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So Elandera went for the gun, while Snipexe is claiming to have used either a lantern or a crab. Steeldancer somehow knew that Xinoehp had taken a bribe, suggesting that Steel used a lantern on the same cycle that the lone elim submitted a kill. I don't know how Steel could have known what Xino did if a lantern wasn't used. Elandera was the decisive vote on CadCom, and evidently went for the gun last cycle which would be a terrible idea for an elim. I still don't see why CadCom would have voted for Snipexe instead of Kidpen if Snipexe was evil though.

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I've been thinking about the numbers, and I don't think the lack of elim kill was a coincidence. They may have expected a few people to use lanterns or crabs this turn, and maybe hoped only one person would go for the gun (or an odd number of people at least). If there are two deaths for the rest of the game, including last turn, it would end in a lynch-off.

At this point, I keep going back and forth between Devotary and Snipexe for my top suspects, leaning toward the former.

Devotary could have been doing a bus vote on Lumgol C1, with a 50% chance of Lum living, and a 50% chance of becoming more trusted. She didn't vote with C2 when CadCom was up for the lynch. She did claim to have scanned and confirmed he went for the crab, but that was the only confirmation. If she were elim, she could easily have claimed to use a lantern, when it was just revealed in the doc.

As for Snipexe, CadCom's vote on him could have been distancing. If one or the other died and flipped elim, the other would likely seem more cleared. That seems a bit more of a stretch, though, especially since the delayed cycle end hadn't been announced and I still had my vote on Kidpen.

For now, I'll be voting Devotary.

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The previous camp supply:

Quote

3 Pieces of Chalk
4 Buckets of Acid
6 Bribes
4 Spring-Powered Crabs
2 Lanterns
1 Gun

The current camp supply:

Quote

3 Pieces of Chalk
4 Buckets of Acid
5 Bribes
4 Spring-Powered Crabs
2 Lanterns

So beside the gun, the only other thing take was a bribe. Anyone want to own up to that? (Or point me to a post last cycle where someone said they were getting a bribe) Otherwise that is likely the last elim, which means that any votes should have a margin of two people between them.

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6 hours ago, Elandera said:

Devotary could have been doing a bus vote on Lumgol C1, with a 50% chance of Lum living, and a 50% chance of becoming more trusted. She didn't vote with C2 when CadCom was up for the lynch. She did claim to have scanned and confirmed he went for the crab, but that was the only confirmation. If she were elim, she could easily have claimed to use a lantern, when it was just revealed in the doc.

Especially after last game, I would not have risked having a teammate needlessly die C1. Bussing teammates early to gain trust also isn't fun for the player killed. I also confirmed that Kidpen was the second player to go for the crab that C2, which I stated in thread C4.

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My apologies for the interjection, but to avoid your thread getting buried after I locked up ten games, I’ve pinned the main game thread, and this thread (which will be unpinned after this comment). If you want to look back at past posts in the next day or so, that’s where to find them. Once this cycle ends, I’ll unpin the main thread if the game isn’t over. Thanks for your patience :) 

Oh, and since I might as well say it while I’m here: you have a little under 24 hours to finalise your actions ;) 

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13 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I also confirmed that Kidpen was the second player to go for the crab that C2, which I stated in thread C4.

I missed that the first time around, my apologies. However, I'm not sure how much I can put stock in that claim specifically. I can understand not revealing the full results of the scan right away, but by the time you said that in the thread, Kidpen had claimed to me that he'd scanned Joe with a crab. It's possible he made a similar claim about getting the crab to you. And unfortunately, without him around, I can't confirm one way or the other. At this point, I just have to go with my strongest suspicion.

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10 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Well, it looks like I'm the only cleared player. This is a problem. If the eliminator uses their kill... well idk. I'm going to do a bit of analysis, I'll probably just edit that and my vote into this post. 

How are you cleared again? I missed it.

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6 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

How are you cleared again? I missed it.

I'm cleared because I read Xinoehp as picking up a bribe on a turn when a kill was submitted. 
Turn 2, if Elandera were elim, she would have totally voted on Snipexe, not Cadmium Compounder, a fellow eliminator, when there was a tie. So that leaves me between Devotary and Snipexe. Of the two, Devotary voted on an eliminator. Meanwhile, Snipexe... well he defended Cadmium Compounder, and there's no evidence of clearance whatsoever. In other words, Snipexe. 
@Devotary of Spontaneity @Elandera I highly recommend you don't get all paranoid, and instead vote on the most suspicious person, who right now is very much Snipexe. 
Also, speaking of the vote from Cadmium Compounder onto Snipexe, there is a distinct possibility that that was a ploy, so that whoever survived would be more trusted. Mind you, I'm just not 100% on this. This is simply my best guess in terms of what the heck is going on, a fresh perspective who hasn't been paying much attention to the game beforehand. 
@Snipexe could you please elaborate on what action you took this last turn? 

Edited by Steeldancer
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49 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Also, speaking of the vote from Cadmium Compounder onto Snipexe, there is a distinct possibility that that was a ploy, so that whoever survived would be more trusted. Mind you, I'm just not 100% on this. This is simply my best guess in terms of what the heck is going on, a fresh perspective who hasn't been paying much attention to the game beforehand. 

I'm still reasonably sure that it was the elims who used the bribe C2. That would mean a team of CadCom+Snipexe would have been pretty sure of killing Snipexe and leaving CadCom alive. A team of CadCom+Elandera would give a 50% chance of a teammate dying, with Elandera becoming more trusted if CadCom survived and then later died.  @Snipexe and @Elandera, what actions did you take C2?

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1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm actually pretty sure Elandera is lying. I used my lantern C2 as I've said, and it showed that Kidpen and CadCom attempted to grab crabs. @Sart, would my scan have shown that CadCom attempted to take a crab if he'd been roleblocked?

It would have shown up yes. The lantern reveals who attempted to go for the item. If they failed due to Acid, or not having enough items in the supply, they would still show up.

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1 minute ago, Sart said:

It would have shown up yes. The lantern reveals who attempted to go for the item. If they failed due to Acid, or not having enough items in the supply, they would still show up.

Oh. Hmm. That makes things a bit different. I'm still hesitant of the claim though, but the same hesitancy I had before.

The trouble is it seems everyone here has some reason to be cleared. Steel probably the most of the three of you. CadCom's vote on Snipexe doesn't really make sense for him to be elim, unless it was just a really risky distancing vote. That leaves me, still, on Devotary. I'm probably tunneling at this point, but I haven't been given sufficient proof to not vote on you.

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Hm. Snipexe. Devotary of Spotaneity. Fact of the matter is that it's either between Snipexe and Devotary for me, and Devotary PMed me and told me that he grabbed the bribe last night. While I consider him more cleared than Snipexe, that move is exactly what I would do as an eliminator. It's a smart move, to grab it. I'm just... hesitant about all this. I'm likely to die this turn, and I don't have any chalk. If anyone has any acid or something, use it on eithe snipexe or devotary, would be my suggestion. Granted, that's mainly targeted at Elandera. 

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So who took the three lanterns C2? I remember Gaea claiming one, Arraenae the second, and Snipexe a third. Was there a fourth person who claimed a lantern? We might be able to determine guilt from that

I'm not thinking that elim!Elandera would force me to vote for her by setting up a direct conflict with me, though it would have been helpful if she'd claimed acid back during C3. I'll put my vote on Snipexe for now.

Edit: If there was a fourth lantern claimant, then Snipexe is probably evil. If there was not a fourth lantern claimant, then either Elandera is evil or Joe was bribed by a villager.

Edited by Devotary of Spontaneity
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