Mid-Range Game 34: Death by Lantern Light

[Sart]

Kally died full of regrets. She had signed up with some misguided notion of patriotism. Now, at the end of it all, she could only laugh. "Seventeen days," she thought. "Seventeen days, and I could have been free from this all." She didn't condemn anyone, and died with a smile on her face. Perhaps, in the Master's warm embrace, she would finally find some rest.

Elsewhere, Ol' Huld had to relieve himself. He wasn't concerned about going by himself. He had his trusty gun with him. Course, the snow storm was still blowing, but it seemed like the worst of it had died out. He hurriedly finished his business, and turned around. Someone was watching him, and their eyes glowed white. "Y'all must be pretty darn stupid to be comin' after me. After all, I got this!" He reached down to grab the gun and shoot the Forgotten, only to discover it wasn't by his side. "What in tarnation!" he managed to get out, before a swarm of wild chalklings enveloped him. The Forgotten tilted their head, as if considering something, before turning around, and letting its minions do the rest of the work.

Vote Count:
Arraenae (2): A Joe in the Bush, Elandera

Arraenae was lynched. They were a Soldier.
STINK was killed. They were a Soldier.

Camp Supply:

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2 Pieces of Chalk
3 Bribes
1 Spring-Powered Crab

Player List:

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1. Elandera: Tahree Fields
2. Furamirionind: Loren Menza Soldier
3. A Joe in the Bush: Joel Tawson
4. Cadmium Compounder: Sonofa Gun Forgotten
5. Mailliw772 (Logmul): Lumgol Forgotten
6. xinoehp512: Rogiv
7. xxGaea: Iria Byrd
8. STINK: Ol' Huld Soldier
9. Kidpen: Snapizar
10. Devotary of Spontaneity: Caccoo Moreau
11. Arraenae: Kally Soldier
12. Steeldancer: Steel Kid the Science Squid
13. Snipexe: Snip

This cycle will end on April 12th, at 9:00PM EST. Here's a timer

Edited April 11, 2019 by Sart
Typo

[A Joe in the Bush]

 

 

"So ah was wrong about Kally. Ah want to vote for Steel Kid next, but my evidence against him was the same as my evidence against her. Nonexistant, based only on our conversation, and on the fact that ah trusted everyone else." Joel scratched his chin, and looked around the group. "Ah'm gonna go through everything again. Ah'll deliver regular reports as ah go, but please, someone else say something. It cannot be jus' me and Tahree speaking up." And with that, Joel went back to his tent.

---

He started with the easiest one first: Iria Byrd

@xxGaea

"Well, at the very least, ah know she is neither the thief, nor ol'Huld's killer. She weren't around in the past two days. Everyone else were."

Tahrie @Elandera

No matter how he squinted, she was perfectly innocent. She solidified  a lynch on the second Forgotten, and was in a position to save either but didn't. Joel trusted her.

What about Caccoo? @Devotary of Spontaneity

Caccoo had been pretty helpful in the first days, helping rid the camp of Lumgol, even using up a precious item to stop her from attacking anyone. Easily the most trustworthy member of the camp.

Actually, looking back at the first days, both Lumgol and Sonofa had voted on soldiers who weren't around; Snip and Rogiv. Was that good or bad? Had they both voted on the same one, Lumgol could have survived. Had they been forced to make a tie between two Forgotten? Or had Sonofa just been busy elsewhere at that time? Questions for layer. For now he needed to get back to work.

[Elandera]

Tahree flipped through the pages of scrawled notes of what happened in the last two days. Nothing at Armedius had prepared her for what they were facing.

Luck had been in their favor, but that was starting to wain. There was at least one lurking out there, somewhere. People were starting to become reclusive, Tahree included. She feared trust would be something of the past. Especially after what happened to Ol' Huld. 

From the evidence she'd gathered, it appeared not only had Huld been killed, but he'd been the victim of a thief, preventing him from defending himself. 

But what she could do about it, she didn't know. Other than to study her notes and try to find some conclusion. And soon.

---

This is kind of the deadline cycle. If we don't catch either the elim or the thief, we will likely lose. I should have some time tonight to dig through past cycles, but for now, I'm most suspicious of Steel being the thief.

Aside from Joe's analysis from yesterday, Stink apparently having the gun stolen from him after Joe asked for Steel to be killed makes it a bit coincidental. After the order of actions being released yesterday showing theft comes before kill, it's possible Steel stole the gun to stay alive hopefully until he could accomplish his win-con.

However, there's also the issue of Steel having claimed to be the victim of the thief. I also think it's possible Stink worked with someone at the beginning to basically be a decoy for who really picked up the gun, and the write-up would just be GM flavor. If that's the case, please claim so we don't accidentally kill someone for mis-placed suspicions.

All of this aside, though, I think it's more important to find the elim. A co-win with the thief would be better than giving the elim more cycles to make a come-back. My brain is currently blanking on elim suspicions (rushing to get this done before heading to work), but like I said, I'll be doing some analysis hopefully tonight. I'll wait until then to actually place a vote.

[Steeldancer]

I'm not the thief. I used a lantern I took last night, to watch the bribes. Xinoehp took a bribe. 

[xxGaea]

Sorry guys, I am here-ish. This is likely going to be my last game that I paly in for a long while, because I just mentally can't keep up with everything I am currently trying to juggle, heh.

@xinoehp512 Did you claim a bribe last night? 

[A Joe in the Bush]

"More importantly than Rogiv taking a bribe, did anyone else take a bribe? If so, either thw new claimant is an elim, or both Rogiv and Steel are elims. If not, then neither Steel nor Rogiv is the thief. The could still be a forgotten, if there are 4. Doubtful that."

[Steeldancer]

I will note, Joe, that there were 4 bribes last turn. No one else could have taken one. One was taken, and it was Xino. And if I was an eliminator, I would have submitted the kill, and I wouldn't know Xino took a bribe. 
Plus, I think Joe is the thief. 

[Elandera]

Alright. I had some time to do some real analysis again. Luckily, it didn't take long because activity has been meh.

First, @A Joe in the Bush

Spoiler

C1

First to advocate sharing publicly what items we plan to take. More likely thief than elim stance, as knowing where items go narrows down who to attempt to steal from.

Points out Lum’s post regarding CadCom and places first vote on Lum. Highly unlikely elim behavior.

C2

Asks CadCom about what Lum said in her PM to him after Lum flipped elim.

Asks Snipe which item he ended up taken after not taking the gun. Possible thief fishing for information on unique items?

Says Lum’s post was probably not distancing. Could be Thief attempt at slowing village progress. Maybe didn’t get item C1?

Ends up voting on CadCom anyway, partially due to low activity

Semi-clears Snipexe, not pushing his forgetting to get an item further. Says activity is higher priority

C3

Expresses suspicion of Steel, Kidpen, Rea, and Xino, as well as mild suspicion of me. Says even a villager wouldn’t likely admit to offering a bribe when the person flipped elim.

Reveals what he PMed to his top suspicions, deciding Rae was the top suspicion and places his vote

Calls out all the people who didn’t post.

Generally, I actually have to agree with Steel here. It does seem his views seem to align pretty well with what a thief would be doing, though he's been subtle about it. In regards to his messages to his top suspicions. He did message me first, saying he was planning something like that. Steel is actually the second person to say they suspect Joe of being the thief. I think it's a plausible conclusion, and worth keeping in mind if we don't get an elim suspect.

@Steeldancer

Spoiler

C1

Follows Joe’s suggestion, stating he plans to take a lantern. In the next post he agrees with the idea, saying it helped village last game. Also suggests more likely thief than elim.

C2

Commented it was fast elims were caught quickly, but said he still needed to catch up more.

Post about general activity.

Suggests Devotary and Joe to be relatively cleared based on voting.

C3

Says he forgot to take an action, but planned to take bribe. Followed by saying an item was stolen. This suggests he started with an item, and picked one up C1.

Responds to Joe’s callout, saying he super busy.

Low on activity, but seems decently honest about his posts. Though, I would like confirmation from Xino that he did take the bribe. I lean toward trusting the claim, simply because the likelihood of them both being elims working together is extremely low.

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Spoiler

C1

Kind of goes back and forth on her stance of sharing what items to take. Agrees with Steel that it helped last time, but points out the mechanical difference that changes how well the plan would work. Eventually says C1 is an okay time to do it, and claims chalk. Would be safe move for elim.

Says later game means more people will be using items rather than grabbing items. Agrees with CadCom’s conclusion about the thief’s order of actions with claiming, but points out four cycles is a long time for the thief in a small game.

Votes on Lum in the last bit of the cycle, agreeing with Joe that her post to CadCom was suspicious, but also says it means xino will be evil, which seems an odd statement.

C2

Questions if Lum actually went for chalk, says it would only protect against the gun, then says gun likely didn’t end with the Forgotten. Points out how many items were left.

Counters my suggestion taking chalk might have been WGG because of thief countdown. Also expresses hesitancy over CadCom lynch, based on him not actually taking the crab.

C3

Says she scanned CadCom, and that he went for the crab. Says third elim not automatically inactive

Says the bribe likely came from elims based on lack of kill. Also soft-clears Snipexe 

After reviewing her posts, she's actually my top suspect for elim at the moment. She seemed hesitant about speaking out too much about item claiming until some others had expressed opinions, and has some possible distancing with CadCom. Also, I can't fully clear her because of her vote. Elims could have agreed that giving someone a chance at being cleared for the vote would be just as useful as keeping a third elim around a little longer.

@xxGaea

Spoiler

C1

RP and saying she plans to be busy the next few days.

C2

Says she will still be busy. Votes on Snipexe because of his comment disagreeing with a CadCom lynch. A bit odd she’d point out Snipexe, when others had also expressed doubt. Possible attempt at counter-wagon?

Removes vote from Snipexe, saying the post still has problems, but not lynchable. Not likely the last elim, otherwise probably would have left vote in place

I'm pretty neutral about Gaea. There's been a relative lack of activity to get any real reads, though I am slightly suspicious about her votes on Snipexe. The first one seemed a bit rash, and taking it off seemed a bit rushed. Granted, keeping it on likely would have saved CadCom. I'm slightly inclined to trust her.

@Kidpen

Spoiler

C1

Says he will be busy as well

C2

Glad for changed rollover time, says he’ll share more later

C3

Says Snipexe lynch was weird, doesn’t plan to vote on him. Also says activity should increase

NAI. Nothing here to really give information. I would like to see a bit more activity and contribution, though.

@xinoehp512

Spoiler

C1

(CadCom)

Xino pinged because he and Snipexe hadn’t shown up yet

Responds to Rae’s vote, saying he probably won’t be very active

C2

RP only post

C3

Also responds to Joe’s call-out, saying he’s super busy

Again, activity is a bit of a hindrance. I'm inclined to suspect Xino, if it weren't for Steel's claim of him grabbing a bribe. However, we haven't considered the (admittedly unlikely) possibility of 4 elims. Solid neutral for now.

@Snipexe

Spoiler

C1

(CadCom)

Not quite pinged because he and Xino hadn’t shown up yet

(CadCom)

CadCom poke-votes Snipexe, who responds about 30 minutes later that he plans to to take the gun

C2

Decided to not go for gun because of the risk, said they’ll pick up lantern. Right after, Joe asks if he grabbed anything else, to which he replies no.

Responds to Stink’s question of why he was interested in the gun. Says it was the same reasoning as Stink, but he moved on.

Expresses hesitancy over CadCom lynch, says it probably wasn’t distancing

Responds to Gaea’s vote, says that just because Joe might be village doesn’t mean CadCom is elim.

Once CadCom showed up, Snipexe asked what Lum PM’d him about.

Responds to Gaea’s vote removal, saying he’ll also be watching her

(CadCom)

Votes on Snipexe for self preservation

Calls out bad logic in CadCom’s vote post, then says it’s likely meant to set him up for being the next elim

C3

Says he’s screwed. Related to his last post of C2

Has an idea for use of a crab, asks to get contacted for it

Counters my question of why elims would go for team save, saying saving one would mean the ability to make actions and keep making kills

Responds to Rae about his first post of the day, saying CadCom appeared to be trying to distance from him.

I'm mostly inclined to trust Snipexe. He has had a lot of interactions with CadCom, but the counter-wagon attempt on him to save CadCom suggests it was all an attempt to set him up for a future mislynch.

Based on what I've gathered, I'm going to place a vote on Devotary.

[xinoehp512]

I did claim a bribe this turn.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Unless anyone else claims a bribe, neither Steel nor Xino can be the elim or the thief. Joe helped lynch both Lumgol and CadCom, while Elandera ensured that even a bribe wouldn't be enough to save CadCom. Snipexe was the one CadCom tried to kill in self-preservation. That leaves Gaea and Kidpen as possible elims.

Of the two, only Kidpen posted last cycle, which is the best argument for Gaea not being evil, though it isn't impossible that Gaea still submitted an action to kill Stink. Removing her vote from Snipexe is a benefit, but I do see a possibility that Gaea was the one to bribe Joe while CadCom's kill was blocked by the lynch. Kidpen was around C2 to see that CadCom was up for the lynch. I know he wasn't the one to use the bribe because he took a crab that cycle. That means he should have been able to switch his action from taking a crab to killing someone. As he wouldn't have been able to use it if he killed Stink, it's theoretically possible we could prove whether or not @Kidpen is evil by asking him what action someone took last night. 

1. Elandera: Tahree Fields
2. A Joe in the Bush: Joel Tawson
3. xinoehp512: Rogiv
4. xxGaea: Iria Byrd
5. Kidpen: Snapizar
6. Devotary of Spontaneity: Caccoo Moreau
7. Steeldancer: Steel Kid the Science Squid
8. Snipexe: Snip

 @Elandera, there's no reason I would have voted for Lumgol if I had been evil. It would have been far easier to just not let a teammate die C1 again. My comment about Xino being evil was because in MR27, voting for Elenion to create a tie led to Kynedath dying and flipping elim. I also would have submitted a kill C2 instead of using my lantern.

[Sart]

Vote Count:
Devotary of Spontaneity (1): Elandera

Cycle ends in 24 hours. Get in your actions and votes before it ends.

[Snipexe]

So I’m just going to straight up say, I have a bucket of acid that I started out with at the beginning of the game. If people have a suspected target for the thief, then please say so in-thread. I will target them tonight (someone can crab me if they want). Even if the thief attempts to block or roleblock me, then they will still have wasted an action, delaying the end of the game by one more cycle.

[Steeldancer]

I would recommend dumping the bucket of acid on Joe. He sent a really weird PM to me that reads like the thief to me. Or he might be an elim pretending to be the thief, I'm not entirely sure. I still don't know what I'm going to do this turn, although I'll probably end up taking an item. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

"Ah sent that message to everyone Steel Kid. Ah already told you that earlier. Ah was trying to catch a forgotten."

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

More than a day later, and we haven't heard from either Gaea or Kidpen. Now, I have to choose between a player who could have saved CadCom but didn't, and a player who could have submitted a kill but didn't. As either Kidpen or Gaea would have been able to add/keep the tiebreaking vote, I'm inclined to believe the elims were fine with a tie and using up their bribe. That makes me more suspicious of Kidpen. Just in case, I'll ask @xxGaea if she observed anything with the lantern she claimed to be taking C2.

Joe, you didn't send that message to everyone. Which players specifically did you PM?

 

 

[Snipexe]

He pm’d me

[Steeldancer]

Actually, is it possible Xinoehp is the thief? They need one of each type of item, after all, and no one had taken a bribe before. The thief already has a chalk they stole from me, don't know what else. Xinoehp. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Actually, is it possible Xinoehp is the thief? They need one of each type of item, after all, and no one had taken a bribe before. The thief already has a chalk they stole from me, don't know what else.

I'm guessing the thief was the one to take a bucket of acid D1, as they were both taken with only one claim. The writeup does suggest that the thief stole the gun, which would mean Xino is not the thief, but it's unclear how much the writeup can be trusted.

Additionally, we still win if we kill the last elim today regardless of whether or not the thief gets their four items, so it's probably better to roleblock potential thieves than to kill them.

[Elandera]

I have information that leads me to believe Joe is the thief, beyond his claim. A player, who will remain unnamed at the moment, contacted me to say he used a crab to spy on Joe and found he did, in fact, steal Stink's gun. 

My analysis combined with this information, leads me to switch my vote off Devotary and onto Joe. I'm far more confident that Joe is thief than I am that Devotary is elim. Though I'd rather kill the elim, I'm not really willing to take the chance that we get it wrong and then lose to the thief. 

As a side note, I will only be here halfway for the remainder of the cycle, as I'm about to start a D&D campaign that will end right around the same time as the cycle.

[Snipexe]

That’s interesting, as that same player made the same claim to me, and has not said anything. Now that could mean that they have simply not responded. However Kidpen has been on line since I pm’d them, and hasn’t said anything. This seems like it might be an attempt to frame Joe. However, there is a better solution then just lynching Joe off the bat. I can roleblock him this cycle, so we can focus on finding the elim instead.

[Kidpen]

43 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I have information that leads me to believe Joe is the thief, beyond his claim. A player, who will remain unnamed at the moment, contacted me to say he used a crab to spy on Joe and found he did, in fact, steal Stink's gun. 

Nah it's fine I'm claiming now. 

I scanned Joe last Cycle with a crab and found that he stole Stink's gun. Joe contacted me a couple weeks ago Implying that I was the last Elim and offering to help me. I figured that that was either a legitimate offer as thief or a lie to try and find the last Elim. I decided to go along with it, and he then came and lied in thread about how I had reacted. At this point I figured he was pretty much confirmed thief, but I'd decided to crab watch him to confirm anyways. After I got it confirmed i still decided not to claim both because Joe said that he didn't get an item C1 (and I later confirmed that Gaea did not have any items) and thus wouldnt be winning this cycle and because he came in the first place offering to make it more of an engaging game, which I'd say is an admirable goal. I feel a bad about this post, cause honestly a secret thief makes for a more fun game than an outed one. But I'd rather not lynch him today, especially if @Snipexe uses acid. 

In terms of who to lynch instead, I'm not totally sure. But I agree with Devotary's process of Elimination, and honestly (s)he doesn't seem like an Elim to me, so I suppose that leaves Gaea[/color] as a final option. 

Edited April 12, 2019 by Kidpen

[xxGaea]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Just in case, I'll ask @xxGaea if she observed anything with the lantern she claimed to be taking C2.

I took a Lantern, but forgot to actually submit an action to use it, so I have not used it.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Kidpen said:

After I got it confirmed i still decided not to claim both because Joe said that he didn't get an item C1 (and I later confirmed that Gaea did not have any items) and thus wouldnt be winning this cycle and because he came in the first place offering to make it more of an engaging game, which I'd say is an admirable goal.

How did you confirm that Gaea didn't have any items? There aren't any abilities other than thief that can do that.

 @A Joe in the Bush, did you not go for acid C1? Two buckets of acid were taken, so I really assumed that you were one of them. I still think it's better for Joe to be roleblocked than lynched. If Joe does have a bucket of acid and is not the thief, perhaps roleblocking whichever of Kidpen and Gaea we don't lynch.

If Kidpen is evil and lying about Joe being the thief, I don't see how that benefits him. The elims lose just as surely as we do if the thief wins, although that may be preferable to letting the village win. Alternatively, elim!Kidpen knows who the thief is and kills them to prevent the game from ending. If Kidpen is telling the truth, then lynching Gaea should end the game. I'll shift my vote to Gaea for now, but would like to hear other people's opinions.

[Kidpen]

By confirmed gaea didn't have any items I mean I asked her via pm. And she said she didn't. 

[A Joe in the Bush]

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

 

"Ah Pm'd Rogiv, Snapizar, Steelkid, and Kally."

5 hours ago, Snipexe said:

He pm’d me

"No ah didn't. Or rather, ah did PM you, but not about you being a forgotten. Our PM came long before that gambit."

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I have information that leads me to believe Joe is the thief, beyond his claim. A player, who will remain unnamed at the moment, contacted me to say he used a crab to spy on Joe and found he did, in fact, steal Stink's gun. 

My analysis combined with this information, leads me to switch my vote off Devotary and onto Joe. I'm far more confident that Joe is thief than I am that Devotary is elim. Though I'd rather kill the elim, I'm not really willing to take the chance that we get it wrong and then lose to the thief. 

As a side note, I will only be here halfway for the remainder of the cycle, as I'm about to start a D&D campaign that will end right around the same time as the cycle.

"Ah am the Thief."

23 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

 

 @A Joe in the Bush, did you not go for acid C1? Two buckets of acid were taken, so I really assumed that you were one of them. I still think it's better for Joe to be roleblocked than lynched. If Joe does have a bucket of acid and is not the thief, perhaps roleblocking whichever of Kidpen and Gaea we don't lynch.

"Ah did not. Ah was under the mistaken assumption that ah had to steal 4 items."

20 minutes ago, Kidpen said:

By confirmed gaea didn't have any items I mean I asked her via pm. And she said she didn't. 

"First off, let's make something clear. Kidpen is the last eliminator. He admitted as much in our PM. Ah hid him so that ah could survive long enough to complete my win con. He is lying about seeing me steal the gun. Ah told him before hand that ah would, to prove to him that ah was. Ah don't know why he is betraying me now, and ahm frankly disappointed that ah didn't get to betray him first. Ah told him ah would be stealing from ol' Huld before ah did, so his claim of seeing me with a crab was easily faked."

"Ah am willing to help the village win. Ah went after Lumgol and CadCom because i figured they were Forgotten. Ah would rather the village won. Ah only switched sides when it became apparent that ah would lose at the current rate of exchange."

"Ah have two items. Steel Kid's Chalk, and Huld's gun. Ah will be picking up a bribe today. If you guys are willing to have someone give me a fourth item, ah will vote on kidpen. Snip can roleblock him. The Forgotten will lose and die, and Ah and you, the village, will win."

Edited April 13, 2019 by A Joe in the Bush