Long Game 53: The Fate of the Forum

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Aman/Ada - I don't really have anything to add onto what I said before.  I am tempted to vote on Ada... But the reasoning is purely speculative, so I will hold off until I get to my real analysis.

 

4 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

...

On that front, I'm once again curious about the crusader. As far as I can tell they refrained from killing for several cycles, and now seem to be back after I stated some suspicion for their lack of action in the thread yesterday, so it might be that they're the convert. They're also the only player I can think off outside the Joes with a visible enough night action that it might force their hand. As I don't know who they are, I'll leave it to Ada to figure that one out for now.*

...

*anyone wants to take a bet that Ada is both the convert and the crusader, and his claimed role was intended to fake us all out?  

Oi! What with all this shade here now, mates?

Regarding the Crusader, I'm aware of why they haven't gotten any kills in the past few Weekends, but I'm also pretty certain that today's kill on Kidpen was them. From a Spammer's perspective it really makes no sense to take Kidpen out of the game when there's a lot more threatening village roles looming about.

Also, just a friendly reminder that I would have been insane to lynch Alv if I was converted by him the day prior. Also that my obsession with winning (especially while evil) would ensure I was getting kill orders placed on more helpful targets.

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Adavantos said:

Oi! What with all this shade here now, mates?

Regarding the Crusader, I'm aware of why they haven't gotten any kills in the past few Weekends, but I'm also pretty certain that today's kill on Kidpen was them. From a Spammer's perspective it really makes no sense to take Kidpen out of the game when there's a lot more threatening village roles looming about.

Also, just a friendly reminder that I would have been insane to lynch Alv if I was converted by him the day prior. Also that my obsession with winning (especially while evil) would ensure I was getting kill orders placed on more helpful targets.

I know, I know, I just wanted to get my paranoia on record in case I was right after all  

[Young Bard]

Yeah, I'm inclined to think this might be the vig, in which case, the last Elim is likely inactive. On a coin flip between Araris and Walin, I'm voting for Araris.

Ideally, I'd like to hear a bit more from @Araris Valerian, @Walin and @I think I am here., and probably a few others I've forgotten.

[Fifth Scholar]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Snipexe - Claimed healer after being prompted last night.  The thing is, If Snip was the convert, I don't see why he would ever bother using his action.  He would just be killing people and just claim he has been healing the wrong people each night.

Worth noting that if we still mostly trust Ada, he can check this for us. 

23 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

On that front, I'm once again curious about the crusader. As far as I can tell they refrained from killing for several cycles, and now seem to be back after I stated some suspicion for their lack of action in the thread yesterday, so it might be that they're the convert. They're also the only player I can think off outside the Joes with a visible enough night action that it might force their hand. As I don't know who they are, I'll leave it to Ada to figure that one out for now.

I like this idea, and feel that regardless of potential safety concerns, it would be nice if our Crusader could step forward. It could also be that with an inactive teammate, the Crusader is forced to send in kills on low-active or suspected players. That still doesn’t really explain what happened with Rathmaskal though, given that I killed him, am neither Spambot nor Crusader, and that there were no other kills.

Hmm. I feel an inactive lynch...isn’t the way to go today, as it might just kill discussion. There’s plenty of content left to analyse from amongst active players, and in about 12 hours I’ll hopefully discuss some of my suspicions regarding Bard and Elandera. (Might also glance through Kidpen and Drought’s content.)

[I think I am here.]

Hello! So I’m pretty behind on most things now. From what I can tell inactive people are suspected because we think the elim team is inactive? Anyway, I want to be useful to the village, I am a Veteran Player (hah), I can remove one vote each Week. I never used it except the first Week, where I took my own vote so it appeared like it wasn’t me (plot twist) and never used it again, partly because I was inactive, partly because the time where I did get the opportunity it was the 4 way tie and I didn’t want to ruin that.

Edit: I claimed this to Elandera.

Edited April 2, 2019 by I think I am here.

[Amanuensis]

4 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

Hello! So I’m pretty behind on most things now. From what I can tell inactive people are suspected because we think the elim team is inactive? Anyway, I want to be useful to the village, I am a Veteran Player (hah), I can remove one vote each Week. I never used it except the first Week, where I took my own vote so it appeared like it wasn’t me (plot twist) and never used it again, partly because I was inactive, partly because the time where I did get the opportunity it was the 4 way tie and I didn’t want to ruin that.

Edit: I claimed this to Elandera.

Hm. I think I buy it? And if true, ITIAH is unlikely to be a convert. There were plenty of good opportunities for Spammers to manipulate votes if they could.

[Elandera]

4 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

Hello! So I’m pretty behind on most things now. From what I can tell inactive people are suspected because we think the elim team is inactive? Anyway, I want to be useful to the village, I am a Veteran Player (hah), I can remove one vote each Week. I never used it except the first Week, where I took my own vote so it appeared like it wasn’t me (plot twist) and never used it again, partly because I was inactive, partly because the time where I did get the opportunity it was the 4 way tie and I didn’t want to ruin that.

Edit: I claimed this to Elandera.

I can confirm he claimed this to me N1. That's why my hair-brained theory regarding Itiah had to do with my question about vote blocking.

4 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Hm. I think I buy it? And if true, ITIAH is unlikely to be a convert. There were plenty of good opportunities for Spammers to manipulate votes if they could.

I agree with this. The day Alvron died would have been the perfect time for some vote manipulation if the spammers had any.

[Araris Valerian]

My travel is over, so I should be able to become a fair bit more active. I'll plan on looking through the list Aman provided of players that could be the last original spammer, and do some analysis of them. I also will mention that I will not die from a lynch or vig kill due to my role, which is kind of boring and has probably contributed a little to my inactivity.

[CadCom]

 

7 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

My travel is over, so I should be able to become a fair bit more active. I'll plan on looking through the list Aman provided of players that could be the last original spammer, and do some analysis of them. I also will mention that I will not die from a lynch or vig kill due to my role, which is kind of boring and has probably contributed a little to my inactivity.

...So you can only die from an elim kill? Has anyone attempted to kill Araris to verify this? Because this just wreaks of ikyk to me. If he was beirst, then this would be a perfect way to push the lynch away from him. Whether or not the claim is true, I don't like it, so Araris This may change as the day goes on, but I think it is a very good way to start discussion, and I can't guarantee that it will change.

 

Edited April 2, 2019 by Cadmium Compounder

[Araris Valerian]

I have an extra life that protects from anything. After that gets used up, only an elim can kill me. The flavor text is that I'm a First Time Player, so everyone will take it easy on me. But the elims would probably never waste a kill on me since doing so would 1) cause my role to be revealed as village and 2) I'm seen as suspicious by the village already. Actually, lynching me this cycle means that the Joe win condition becomes impossible , because I can't be targeted by any villagers following my first death.

[Lumgol]

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

I have an extra life that protects from anything. After that gets used up, only an elim can kill me. The flavor text is that I'm a First Time Player, so everyone will take it easy on me. But the elims would probably never waste a kill on me since doing so would 1) cause my role to be revealed as village and 2) I'm seen as suspicious by the village already. Actually, lynching me this cycle means that the Joe win condition becomes impossible , because I can't be targeted by any villagers following my first death.

It's still possible, because we can still kill you after taking your extra life. Assuming you're telling the truth.

[Araris Valerian]

Well, I would take it very personally if you lynched me after the GM confirmed me as village. Unrelated to my role, and in my defense, I would like to point out that Alvron would still be alive if it weren't for me. I know that isn't much without any analysis from me to go on, but hopefully it is a consideration.

[Araris Valerian]

Wow, sure is quiet around here. I guess everyone is already in mourning for me . Here is a list of possible original elims that Adavantos posted (I've struck out the dead ones):

1. @May I suggest The Only Joe
2. xinoehp512
3. Snipexe
4. alVoidus
5. |257|-|
6. Araris Valerian
7. Kidpen
8. Walin

Now, the game was not originally balanced around Walin, so he can't be one of the 5 starting elims we've assumed, although he could still be an elim. I'm not going to say anything more about myself, which leaves Snipexe, Kidpen, and Xino. Furamiriond confirmed that Xino has a redirect role, which I think rules him out as a starting elim. Kidpen has a vote manipulation ability, which should clear him. That means that I'd bet Snipexe is a spammer, if there were 5 to start. If Snip is an Eliminator, then it's possible the convert has used a trusted status to clear their theoretical partner. I'd probably want to start reconsidering the entire player pool if Snip flips village.

I'm mildly worried that Snip didn't participate in either of the first two lynches, but he did say that he had a spammer read on Alv the cycle that Alv was lynched, and yet voted on another player. He has been somewhat low active and could account for the night that we missed an elim kill. I'm not sure if other people have thoughts on this.

[Furamirionind]

Lumgol (1): Fura

Araris(3): Cadcom, Elandera, Bard

Unfortunately, I overestimated my abilities to focus today.  Luckily I did do most of what I was planning to do today, yesturday.

Ninja'd by Araris.

I dont like the lynch on Araris because he is low activity.  I would be much happier with a lymch on Snipexe rather than Araris right now as there is at least something suspicious about Snip.  However, I am still apprehensive of assuming the spammer is inactive.

I would still like the CC to claim at this point, as their existance is directly influencing this lynch.  If there is a reason for them not to claim, I would like to hear that from @Adavantos.

I am going to switch my vote to Rand for now...

Rand

EDIT: wow, no one questions when I just randomly switch my vote to someone without giving a reason? Part of me wishes I was converted purely because my role thrives on being suspected... yet for some unknown reason, no one seems to suspect me, and accepts anything suspicious I do is due to my role... lol

Edited April 3, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I would still like the CC to claim at this point, as their existance is directly influencing this lynch.  If there is a reason for them not to claim, I would like to hear that from @Adavantos.

I am going to switch my vote to Rand for now...

Rand

EDIT: wow, no one questions when I just randomly switch my vote to someone without giving a reason? Part of me wishes I was converted purely because my role thrives on being suspected... yet for some unknown reason, no one seems to suspect me, and accepts anything suspicious I do is due to my role... lol

TBH I'm kinda thinking Alv never got his conversion off, and he wanted to create a 5-way tie to prolong his death long enough to use it. Otherwise the lack of Spammer kills these last two days don't really make sense. I'm going to vote for Snipexe as well, under the pretense that he's the last Spammer and, once dead, the game will end.

Beyond that, if the game doesn't end, I think Walin is a good choice for vig kill.

ED1T:

Right. Forgot to discuss that. I'm going to refrain from revealing the Contribution Crusader for now. I'll give them the chance to first. If they don't admit it themselves, I'll probably let the thread know right before this next Weekend ends. That seems reasonable to me.

ED2T:

(3) Araris Valerian: Cadmium Compounder, Elandera, Metabardnition

(2) Snipexe: Araris Valerian, Adavantos,

(1) Aranduensis: Furamirionind, 

Edited April 3, 2019 by Adavantos

[Furamirionind]

9 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

TBH I'm kinda thinking Alv never got his conversion off, and he wanted to create a 5-way tie to prolong his death long enough to use it. Otherwise the lack of Spammer kills these last two days don't really make sense. I'm going to vote for Snipexe as well, under the pretense that he's the last Spammer and, once dead, the game will end.

Beyond that, if the game doesn't end, I think Walin is a good choice for vig kill.

EDIT:

Right. Forgot to discuss that. I'm going to refrain from revealing the Contribution Crusader for now. I'll give them the chance to first. If they don't admit it themselves, I'll probably let the thread know right before this next Weekend ends. That seems reasonable to me.

If you dont think Alv got his conversion off, the last spammer should have ensured Alv survived.  As there was a 4 way tie, they could have saved Alv by moving their vote from whoever, to one of the other 2 options.  As snipexe voted on CadCom that cycle, I think something in your theory is incorrect.

Edit: the convert will likely be the hardest spammer to find.  Sacrificing Alv or a minor spammer role for getting a convert is likely worth it.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

5 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

If you dont think Alv got his conversion off, the last spammer should have ensured Alv survived.  As there was a 4 way tie, they could have saved Alv by moving their vote from whoever, to one of the other 2 options.  As snipexe voted on CadCom that cycle, I think something in your theory is incorrect.

Depends a lot on if said teammate was active towards the end of that cycle or not. Want to verify the last time Snip posted that turn?

ED1T:

@Furamirionind I got it

Snip's last post that turn, and Alv hadn't even been voted on yet.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Adavantos

[Furamirionind]

6 minutes ago, Adavantos said:

Depends a lot on if said teammate was active towards the end of that cycle or not. Want to verify the last time Snip posted that turn?

ED1T:

@Furamirionind I got it

Snip's last post that turn, and Alv hadn't even been voted on yet.

I'm on mobile because comcast sucks, so I no longer have wifi for my computer, but looking back at that turn, I believe there were 3 votes on Alv, then you changed yours to snip right before his final post.

[Amanuensis]

4 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I'm on mobile because comcast sucks, so I no longer have wifi for my computer, but looking back at that turn, I believe there were 3 votes on Alv, then you changed yours to snip right before his final post.

You've confused me with Aranduensis I see  no idea why people keep doing that

EDIT: But yeah. Arand voted on Alv and so did I, only for Arand to retract just before Snip's last post. Therefore Snip's vote on CadCom at the time can definitely look like an eliminator save. Also makes very little sense for him to claim he protected CadCom the following night.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Adavantos

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Adavantos said:

You've confused me with Aranduensis I see  no idea why people keep doing that

... oops.  I did say C1 I have been having issues with you two. Lol.

Just looked again.  Cadcom had 3 votes where with Rands withdrawal, Alv only had 1.  So if that was when Snipexe logged off, he could be a spammer.

[DeTess]

@Furamirionind, is that vote of yours enough to do the thing you do, or do I need to vote on you as well?  

Anyway, by my reckoning from last cycle, Snipexe would now make the best lynch, unless someone can confirm that they redirected actions from Cadcom to Xinoehp. If Snipexe flips village, the lack of claim to help clear Snipexe will be suspicious in and of itself, which should narrow the field for finding the convert, if there is one.

Anyway, I've been inexcusable lazy, so running on the logic that there is a convert, I'm going to get a start on analyzing the rest of the players. I'll run by the assumption that no one was converted until N2 at the earliest, so use that as a starting point for this pass.

First one is Elandera. One of the first things I noticed is that, especially as the game progresses, she's been putting in effort. Putting the case against Fifth together is indicative of someone willing to put some serious effort into solving the game, though it's  shame she didn't cast a slightly wider net. I've seen nothing that really makes me suspicious of her or doubt her intentions much, so I'm reading her pretty solidly as village right now.

Next up on the list of more active players is Furami. And straight away I notice something interesting. During N3 they listed Alvron as being their primary suspicion, though wihtout much in the way of explanation:

But afterwards the only interaction with Alvron was them marvelling at the role they claimed (which had not been proven in any way yet). They never brought up their suspicion during D4, and only stated completely believing Alvrons role-claim after Alv had flipped. Now, I won't deny that the role-claim sounded believable, but at that point the elim-team should have seen enough roles to be able to believably fabricate one, and afaik Furami sin't one to be fooled so easily without at least doing a bit of follow-up checking. This makes me suspicious that they might be the convert.

More will follow at another moment.

[Elandera]

13 minutes ago, Aranduensis said:

First one is Elandera. One of the first things I noticed is that, especially as the game progresses, she's been putting in effort. Putting the case against Fifth together is indicative of someone willing to put some serious effort into solving the game, though it's  shame she didn't cast a slightly wider net. I've seen nothing that really makes me suspicious of her or doubt her intentions much, so I'm reading her pretty solidly as village right now.

It is a shame I wasn't getting more reads. I tried to cast a wider net, but all I kept getting was hunches about Fifth. Looking back on it, I've backed off some of my suspicion because I realize I was kind of tunneling (sorry Fifth!). At this point, I do believe the OG spammer is inactive. Most of the active players I've been able to find reasons why they are cleared.

As for the convert, I have absolutely no clue. No one who's been able to prove some kind of village role seemed to switch styles at all. I've played a few conversion games, but few where I have lived long enough to wonder about one being out there, so I'm not exactly experienced at finding those differences.

You do make an interesting point about Fura. I'll try to look closer at her posts in the next day or two.

Vote Count (traditional account names):

Araris (3): Elandera, Bard, CadCom
Snipexe (3): Araris, Aman, Rand
Rand (1): Fura

[Fifth Scholar]

...blegh, I really don’t know what’s wrong with me this game; I feel as though I simply can’t focus enough as things stand, though I have given a brief reread to the Alv lynch. Unfortunately, the pretence of creating a tie rendered most of my analysis on that a little bit useless; there could be spammers hiding almost anywhere in that lynch. I don’t think the Alv voters are really cleared, though. 

Would it not be better for our Crusader to take out Snip? He’s definitely qualified to do so, and if he doesn’t Snip, or the Crusader themselves, could be easily lynched the next day. I’m still of the opinion that an inactive lynch will kill discussion in here, which is exactly what we don’t need as we near an endgame. 

Araris’ claim would be nice to test, but to give him the benefit of the doubt lynching him this cycle might not be best. Plus, it’ll give you Joe faction people a chance to convert him in the case that he’s being truthful. 

I’m leaving my vote on Itiah for now, as his roleclaim seems...hmm. I’m not sure, exactly, but it almost seems designed to fit what we already know about the roles, and in that sense is too perfect? I’m sort of struggling to define my issue with it (clearly), but until it’s proven I don’t really trust it much. 

Hopefully more content tonight. Someone please ping me if I don’t post something decent in the next ~16 hours. 

Edit: Itiah, actually, as I misread the roleclaim. It removes votes, which should be easily testable, not protection, which isn’t.  (In case you can’t tell, this is sleepy!Fifth posting.) @I think I am here., if you could nullify my vote this cycle, that would be nice.

Edited April 3, 2019 by Seventh Saint

[DeTess]

2 minutes ago, Seventh Saint said:

I’m leaving my vote on Itiah for now, as his roleclaim seems...hmm. I’m not sure, exactly, but it almost seems designed to fit what we already know about the roles, and in that sense is too perfect? I’m sort of struggling to define my issue with it (clearly), but until it’s proven I don’t really trust it much. 

Well he already has claimed its use once, so unless there's an alternative explanation for that one I don't see him being an OG elim.

[Young Bard]

Eh, I wasn't planning on claiming because I didn't think it would achieve all that much, but I think my hand is forced if everyone wants me to.

I'm the Contribution Crusader. I killed Kidpen yesterday, since they were both borderline inactive and fairly suspicious. The reason I didn't kill the two nights previous to that is because I was roleblocked Night 2 (attempting to kill Drought, which I'm still inclined to put down to a now inactive Vashikaran, though I'm less confident than before, since 6 Eliminators seems unlikely - if this is because of you, could you please speak up?), and redirected to an invalid target Night 3 (from Drought to Itiah, who posted more than 5 times that cycle - this is from Xino's redirect), both of which I announced publicly in thread at the time. There's one more thing I should probably add about my role, but for reasons that should become clear, I want to wait until the night turn to do so.

Honestly, I don't know what's up with the convert. The one thing I can think of is if Alv was hoping that he would be lynched Day 4 once it was revealed he was lying about his role, but intended to convert his strongest opponent Night 3, a night after everyone thought the convert was made, thereby making that player most likely to be trusted to the end of the game. That's really heading into mad hatter paranoia territory, so is almost certainly wrong.

I think I'll leave my vote where it is for now - for one thing, I can kill Snipexe (or Walin or Itiah) tonight, while Araris only needs to post one more this cycle to be immune to my kill. For another thing, I don't think there's that much more evidence against Snipexe than there is against anyone else - I don't see any reason Snipexe would lie about being redirected even if they were a Spammer (though I may have forgotten some of the precise details with Snipexe, since I've been busy and they weren't really on my radar.)