Long Game 52: Treachery in the South

[Lumgol]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

If you believe that he’s an Eliminator trying to pocket you, and that his trust in you is too unfounded, wouldn’t you want him lynched in case he was evil? I find your parenthetical interesting and slightly at odds with the rest of your post—I certainly understand wanting to spare someone the displeasure of an early death, but if you’re tipping the vote towards him, and actively causing him to be lynched, it rings slightly false that you don’t mean for him to die.

What I meant by this was: I suspect CadCom and want to lynch him, but I feel bad OOC for doing it D1.

[Steeldancer]

Just got done with my homework. It is suspicious that we have more than 6 people claiming Aluminum, although I know my own aluminum thing is legit. I also feel that it is WAY to early to declare anyone "cleared." It's day one, guys, everything is still up in the air. While I haven't done my own analysis, and I have other things to do besides that on day one, I think the lynch on Cadcom feels the most compelling, for a day one lynch anyway. Sorry for not adding anything more to the conversation, I want to but I'm not really sure what else to add besides what's already been said. Hopefully getting someone lynched will reveal some information that I can actually feel like I can work with. 

[Lumgol]

So, I believe CadCom and Fura are tied now. Interesting.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

CadCom(5): Elandera, Lumgol, Fura, Steel, Devotary
Fura(4): Fifth, Eternum, Roadwalker, CadCom
Shanerockes(1): FatherTiempo

Borrowing Elandera's vote count, we now have an exciting tie going into the last minutes of the cycle. Presumably, there's some vote manipulation that can alter the results of this lynch, and it's entirely possible that if either of the two main candidates are evil, they will survive with pewter. While I sort of want to check out a potential Fura-Lumgol link, I do feel that CadCom is more suspicious, and the main thing preventing my vote has been that CadCom died C1 in the most recent game. Since we don't lose anything from delaying the lynchee's death with bendalloy, I would agree that we might as well use that medallion.

[Kidpen]

The day is now over. Bear with me for a little while as I get night 1 up. 

[FatherTiempo]

Khaldar watched the sun sink. How could the sun be at the same position it was earlier and still be so dark. It looks more like a savage eye in a sea of blood. Villagers were gathering shouting. Someone was going away, and never coming back. Khaldar huddled against the cold stone. He prayed that they're fears were unfounded, and that he would see the morning again.

[Kidpen]

The Malwish prepared their medallions and joined the Northerners on the airship. Each and every person received a mask, masking their identity. Nobody knew who the others were. It was soon realized what was happening, and discussion began. Soon the group came to an agreement: Dee Dadean was to be killed. 

***

Night 1 has started! Sorry I was so late, I fell asleep. 

Cadmium Compounder was lynched, but will not die until Day 2!

CadCom(5): Elandera, Lumgol, Fura, Steel, Devotary
Fura(4): Fifth, Eternum, Roadwalker, CadCom
Shanerockes(1): FatherTiempo

The night will end at 10 MST on February 22nd.

Player list:
 

Spoiler

1. Eternum

2. Droughtbringer/Kalin

3. Lumgol/Marwyn Hariel

4. Elandera

5. Rathmaskal 

6. I think I am here/the Masked Itiah

7. Ark1002

8. Steeldancer/me

9. Cadmium Compounder/Dee Dadean

10. xinoehp512/Ladem

11. Furamirionind

12. shanerockes/Timmy

13. Devotary of Spontaneity/Pyrhine

14. FatherTiempo/Khalder

15. Roadwalker/the Esteemed Dietrich Drake

16. Snipexe/Snip 

17. ElendVenture/Damon 

18. Fifth Scholar

 

Edited February 23, 2019 by Kidpen

[Eternum]

So. Someone used Bendalloy to delay CadCom's death. If this was indeed a villager looking to get more information out of CadCom, they should reveal themselves. However, I doubt it was a villager, as I also have a Bendalloy medallion that I did not use. 

[CadCom]

Well, that's a bummer. That's the first time I've experienced the feeling of an attack being mounted after you've gone to bed and not being able to do anything about it, and the second time in a row I've been lynched D1 Lucky for me, I get to comment still this time around

So, first off, I do have Nicrosil and Aluminum. I hope the holder if the tin medallion did scan aluminum last night, so you can find the real culprit. 

Second, I will be using my nicrosil on someone tonight. I already have a person in mind, but it may change. Is there anyone that everyone trusts well enough that I should use it on them? If you give me one specific name, it's more likely that that person will be attacked by the elims(maybe) but if you give me a list of suggested people, I can choose from that list. 

Third, i wish i was at work today, as most if my extensive game notes are on that computer, and I would share some of my suspicions. I also have a list of who has what metal D1, but I suppose any of you could go back through the thread and do that. 

Fourth, I am a villager, and I'd be willing to answer any question the rest of you have for me, to the best of my ability at least. I'm also going to try to go through the thread again one more time, and post who I find most suspicious. Please don't just shrug off my analysis if I do get it posted. 

Lastly, I know some of you still don't believe my claim, but after I'm revealed at rollover, please go back and look through my posts. I haven't been trying to pocket anyone. I'll address the rest if the concerns raised against me during the bandwagon against me at the end of last cycle between classes today.

[Sparkrunner]

Sorry, Cadcom.

I've been lynched D1 before, not fun.

Anyways, I voted on Fura for the suggesting we claim thing, and I just kinda left it on there, because I didn't see that decreasing in validity, but this is a new situation. I'll try to analyze more next cycle.

[Furamirionind]

Sorry CadCom. In retrospect, perhaps it would have been best to have just let myself get lynched, as I will likely get lynched next, lynching 2 villagers instead of 1.

To respond to @Devotary of Spontaneity's Question:

Quote

@Furamirionind, if you're still there, can you address what you said about hypothetical elim!Fura's medallion distribution? How would you have passed out medallions if you were evil?

I made a list last night, but as I am at work, I will just say that I would have maxed out both Chromium and Alluminum, and likely would have sent out a lot of Electrum and Cadmium as those are just really cool mechanics. I probably would have started the elims out with 1 vote manip, and both Duralumin and nicrosil, as it would be cool to do a massive swing D1 to throw people off. Especially if both people are villagers (which is statistically likely to assume before the game actually starts), as that might make the other person look suspicious.

I would probably also max out Copper both because it can be useful for the elims, and because it will annoy the Bronze holder. I also *might* place a couple more vote manip roles out there, as that should hopefully cause some confusion about the lynch mixed in with Cadmium and Bronze. I haven't thought that one through though.

basically, I would put out a *lot* of medallions. (And I definitely would have given CadCom Cadmium).  With that many medallions in this game, most people should have 2, and some may even have 3.
Granted, perhaps that did happen, and some people are lying about how many medallions they have, and I just got unlucky only getting Iron...

Edited February 21, 2019 by Furamirionind
added "(which is statistically likely to assume before the game actually starts)"

[CadCom]

So it seems most of the votes against me are because I cleared Lumgol for the time being, or because of my early hedging, later freaking out about the bandwagon against Fura.

In my defense, I started writing my post where I freaked out about the bandwagon, right after I believe the third vote in the space of a couple of hours, and the 4th vote overall had landed on him, though due to timing of work obligations, it was posted a bit after that. I didn't, and still don't believe that there was enough info to go off to have such a bandwagon on Fura. It looks like it faded away though. 

With regards to me clearing Lumgol, Everyone keeps using the term hard-clear. I never said that I'm hard clearing him. I said the claim after we already had 6 other was enough to clear him for now, because it didn't seem like an elim move to intentionally put themselves into a group that would be further examined. But, Bygones be bygones, right? 

I'm trying to look at the lynch against me, 

Elandera seems like an honest vote. It doesn't seem like a very Elim move to try to start up a whole new lynch near the end of the cycle on someone new. Unless of course, none of the elim team was up for lynch and they wanted to stir a bit of chaos, Either way, I still read it as an honest vote, and I'm willing to give Elan the benefit of the doubt. This vote alone, in my opinion doesn't make it more likely for them to be an elim. 

Lumgol, I suppose I understand your vote on me as well. Especially since you feel like you've been caught up in Elim pocketing attempts before, it's best to get out while you still can. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt as well, and I don't think your vote makes you more likely to be Elim

Fura's vote I definitely understand, as I did the same thing for my vote. Survival. The vote alone does not make Fura more likely to be an elim in my opinion

Steel's vote doesn't resonate well with me, but I don't have anything concrete about the vote that stands out to discuss or bring people awareness about. Just feels fishy. Perhaps his vote alone does increase the likelihood of Steel being elim in my book, but not really enough to do much about it. 

Devotary's vote is interesting. At the time of his vote, the lynch was tied 4-4 between me and fura. Reading through Devotary's posts, it seems like for the most part they either agreed with me, or understood my reasoning. Throughout the first couple of pages, I was mentioned a lot in their posts. (Partly because I've been contributing a lot though) but even on other posts where I haven't been mentioned, it seems to me as if Devotary had been sympathizing with ideas and thoughts that I also had. I might put it as a soft attempt to pocket me, but when they saw it wasn't working, they knew that they had nothing to lose in voting for me, because I'm just another villager.  If this was another day cycle, and I had no other information than the information I've presented in this post, I would vote for Devotary

A couple last things. I might not get back on to post again, as I'm at school, so I may be focusing on classes. I'm also attempting to start writing a novel, or at least the premises of one. (I've never taken a writing class, so it's real fun working through this stuff), so I may choose to focus on that as well. If anyone still has questions for me, go ahead and ask them and I'll see if I can get back on and help answer them.

and Lastly, Just for kicks, and maybe to have a little fun watching people's reactions(Please don't pay this any attention until I actually do die, and flip one way or the other. Like I said, it's just for kicks)

When I flip village, My best guesses for an elim team of 4 are 
Devotary, Xino, and two others, (possibly Eternum and Steel, though those two were mostly chosen randomly, with a little bit of gut feeling)

If I flip Elim, my team mates ARE
Devotary, Fura, and Roadwalker (one of those could or could not be replaced by Lumgol)

 

[Droughtbringer]

38 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

If I flip Elim, my team mates ARE
Devotary, Fura, and Roadwalker (one of those could or could not be replaced by Lumgol)

How does this help us in any way? 

I mean, if you're elim then this is a horrible, horrible IKYK situation, but if you're village then this just... does nothing for us. 

You've claimed that you're village, and if you are village, what do you want us to do with this information?

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

With regards to me clearing Lumgol, Everyone keeps using the term hard-clear. I never said that I'm hard clearing him. I said the claim after we already had 6 other was enough to clear him for now, because it didn't seem like an elim move to intentionally put themselves into a group that would be further examined. But, Bygones be bygones, right? 

I don't know, by being the 7th person to claim, they set themselves in a suspicious situation, but also make themselves seem the least suspicious. This is something that given what I know of Lum (which granted isn't much), she doesn't seem the type to false claim and put herself in suspicious situations to implicate others... That just doesn't sound like her to me. Though I have never played with her as an elim before...
Anyway, I personally never had a problem with the Lum clearing. I probably would have said it if you hadn't...

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Steel's vote doesn't resonate well with me, but I don't have anything concrete about the vote that stands out to discuss or bring people awareness about. Just feels fishy. Perhaps his vote alone does increase the likelihood of Steel being elim in my book, but not really enough to do much about it. 

Devotary's vote is interesting. At the time of his vote, the lynch was tied 4-4 between me and fura. Reading through Devotary's posts, it seems like for the most part they either agreed with me, or understood my reasoning. Throughout the first couple of pages, I was mentioned a lot in their posts. (Partly because I've been contributing a lot though) but even on other posts where I haven't been mentioned, it seems to me as if Devotary had been sympathizing with ideas and thoughts that I also had. I might put it as a soft attempt to pocket me, but when they saw it wasn't working, they knew that they had nothing to lose in voting for me, because I'm just another villager.  If this was another day cycle, and I had no other information than the information I've presented in this post, I would vote for Devotary

Ah yes, I forgot I felt similarly. (I am really scatterbrained right now. Little sleep plus high stress is an interesting combination for mental health. : )  )

On a second readthrough, though Steel's vote is strange, it seems likely it was cast after doing a rushed read of the thread, which is what Steel seems to be implying he did.

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Quote

Presumably, there's some vote manipulation that can alter the results of this lynch, and it's entirely possible that if either of the two main candidates are evil, they will survive with pewter. While I sort of want to check out a potential Fura-Lumgol link, I do feel that CadCom is more suspicious, and the main thing preventing my vote has been that CadCom died C1 in the most recent game. Since we don't lose anything from delaying the lynchee's death with bendalloy, I would agree that we might as well use that medallion.

I don't understand where this assumption the elims have pewter came from.  The elims would want as little pewter as possible in the game. Statistically, C1 is the cycle the elims have the least likely chance of dying, and this is the only cycle they could guarantee their protection. This protection also comes with the downside of possibly protecting villagers from the lynch and the elim kill. This will slow down the game, something the elims definitely don't want. Dev, you of all people should know this... (Unless I am overlooking something obvious, which I don't think I am...)

the "Fura-Lumgol link" is that Elandera and I each had 1 vote, and Lum voted for Elandera over me.  If Lum had voted for me, would you have said there was an Elandera-Lumgol link? The vote on CadCom itself doesn't seem too strange to me, as you hadn't truly addressed CadCom up until that point (and still haven't really...), this seems NAI. Easy for an elim to do, but last couple minutes of the cycle there isn't much time...

I would like to point out that this also creates a Lum-Dev link. Lum is in a circle of people with suspicion on them, so elim!Dev shows a link between village!Fura and elim!Lum, when Fura dies It soft clears Lum for a bit.  Though granted, for this to mean anything, both Dev and I would have to die, I would have to flip village, and Dev elim.  And if Dev was an elim trying to do this, I wouldn't understand why she wouldn't vote for me.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

When I flip village, My best guesses for an elim team of 4 are 
Devotary, Xino, and two others, (possibly Eternum and Steel, though those two were mostly chosen randomly, with a little bit of gut feeling)

Eternum is on my list as well, but Dev I am increasingly unsure about. (If Dev is elim, I would put Lum on this list as well)

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

If I flip Elim, my team mates ARE
Devotary, Fura, and Roadwalker (one of those could or could not be replaced by Lumgol)

… What? *rereads post*
Oh, you want to see people's reactions? Well, I was both the first, and I think last(?) vote placed on you... So hopefully my distancing tactic worked... 

Edit: Nope, second to last to tie us up. Close enough right? : P

Edit: Edit: Just reread my post. In typical Fura Fashion, I threw out several ideas and a couple accusations, yet end with as little information as when I started... Cool... : /

Edited February 21, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

the "Fura-Lumgol link" is that Elandera and I each had 1 vote, and Lum voted for Elandera over me.  If Lum had voted for me, would you have said there was an Elandera-Lumgol link? The vote on CadCom itself doesn't seem too strange to me, as you hadn't truly addressed CadCom up until that point (and still haven't really...), this seems NAI. Easy for an elim to do, but last couple minutes of the cycle there isn't much time...

Except there were 4 votes on you before CadCom placed his first vote on me. You also had a vote on CadCom, and I had one on Shanerockes. I found it a bit odd when they claimed the votes were shifting to me, when there was only one, while you had a few. Lum seemed unwilling to vote on you, but more than willing to join other singular votes. 

It could be Lum just didn't find the claims against you worth a vote, but that was never expressed. They just ignored you entirely as an option. 

It's not enough for me to view either of you as village or elim, but it's enough for me to keep an eye on you both.

[Lumgol]

I saw Fura as an option and was reasonably convinced at the arguments supporting their lynch.

I simply decided to vote for someone else instead because that decision felt more logical to me.

[Furamirionind]

6 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Except there were 4 votes on you before CadCom placed his first vote on me. You also had a vote on CadCom, and I had one on Shanerockes. I found it a bit odd when they claimed the votes were shifting to me, when there was only one, while you had a few. Lum seemed unwilling to vote on you, but more than willing to join other singular votes. 

It could be Lum just didn't find the claims against you worth a vote, but that was never expressed. They just ignored you entirely as an option. 

Umm, I completely missed that. Yeah, you are right. Lum said they were voting on you because she wanted to bandwagon (?), but the bandwagon was on me... I mean, I know I am a villager, so I don't know why this would be the case, but it is very strange.

Ninja'd by Lum (speak of the devil : P  )

3 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

I saw Fura as an option and was reasonably convinced at the arguments supporting their lynch.

I simply decided to vote for someone else instead because that decision felt more logical to me.

Lum, I may need you to rephrase this. What it sounds to me, is you are saying, "I saw Fura was a lynch option, and I was convinced Fura should be lynched. So I voted for someone else because it was a better idea".

Is that a correct interpretation of what you were intending to say?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Reading through Devotary's posts, it seems like for the most part they either agreed with me, or understood my reasoning. Throughout the first couple of pages, I was mentioned a lot in their posts. (Partly because I've been contributing a lot though) but even on other posts where I haven't been mentioned, it seems to me as if Devotary had been sympathizing with ideas and thoughts that I also had.

Can you point out the specific places you're thinking of? From what I can see, I: questioned your assumption that the elims could choose who received which medallions, disagreed as to how pewter medallions worked, believed you were less likely than others to have been lying about having aluminium, and agreed that tin should scan aluminium. On that note, we (hopefully) have a tin scan by now, and the current owner of the tin medallion can claim D2 and say who was lying.

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I don't understand where this assumption the elims have pewter came from.  The elims would want as little pewter as possible in the game. Statistically, C1 is the cycle the elims have the least likely chance of dying, and this is the only cycle they could guarantee their protection.

Starting the game with a medallion doesn't make one any less likely to receive the medallion in the future, so any pewter medallions the elims decided to create would be more likely sent to an elim. You are probably right that the elims would want to have as little pewter in the game as possible, although I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say I specifically should have known this.

As Elandera explained, the Fura-Lumgol link was because she voted for two different counter-lynches, switching to CadCom when it was clear Elandera wouldn't be lynched. 

[Lumgol]

At this point, I believe it won't be very helpful to deny the "Fura-Lumgol link".

I'm village. If Fura is also village, then that means we're both village and this link doesn't make any one of us suspicious.

If Fura is likely to be elim, then so be it. But either there's a connection between us and we're both village, or Fura is indeed elim and all connection that you may have noticed is coincidence.

[Furamirionind]

21 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Starting the game with a medallion doesn't make one any less likely to receive the medallion in the future, so any pewter medallions the elims decided to create would be more likely sent to an elim. You are probably right that the elims would want to have as little pewter in the game as possible, although I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say I specifically should have known this.

As Elandera explained, the Fura-Lumgol link was because she voted for two different counter-lynches, switching to CadCom when it was clear Elandera wouldn't be lynched. 

True, but the village has about a 3/4 chance every cycle of the village getting a pewter medallion. So it should spend more time in the village's hands than the elims.  C1 is the cycle the elims need it the least, and the only time they can guarantee they have it.

I said you specifically should have known this, as in previous games I have played with you (I think all of them?), you have significantly outdone pretty much everyone else in terms of game analysis.

10 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

At this point, I believe it won't be very helpful to deny the "Fura-Lumgol link".

I'm village. If Fura is also village, then that means we're both village and this link doesn't make any one of us suspicious.

If Fura is likely to be elim, then so be it. But either there's a connection between us and we're both village, or Fura is indeed elim and all connection that you may have noticed is coincidence.

I am not denying it. I admitted I made a mistake in counting votes in the response to Elandera. I want you to clarify what you meant by that previous post though, as I find that post very condemning of both of us, and from the rest of the game's perspective, we are almost certainly the best lynch targets in my opinion. Unfortunately, that means we lose one "confirmed" villager.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Furamirionind

[Lumgol]

10 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I am not denying it. I admitted I made a mistake in counting votes in the response to Elandera. I want you to clarify what you meant by that post though, as I find that post very condemning of both of us, and from the rest of the game's perspective, we are almost certainly the best lynch targets in my opinion. Unfortunately, that means we lose one "confirmed" villager.

First of all, I apologize for coming off as condemning, that was not my intention at all.

And by denying it, I meant myself denying it, which I leaned toward doing until recently.

A paraphrase of my argument might be, "A Lum-Fura connection is only a cause of suspicion if one of them is a confirmed elim, which neither of us are at this point."

[Furamirionind]

Sorry, my post was ambiguous. What I meant was, this post:

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

I saw Fura as an option and was reasonably convinced at the arguments supporting their lynch.

I simply decided to vote for someone else instead because that decision felt more logical to me.

This is why I asked for clarification of this post, here:

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Lum, I may need you to rephrase this. What it sounds to me, is you are saying, "I saw Fura was a lynch option, and I was convinced Fura should be lynched. So I voted for someone else because it was a better idea".

Is that a correct interpretation of what you were intending to say?

 

Edited February 21, 2019 by Furamirionind
Commas save lives

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Lumgol said:

A paraphrase of my argument might be, "A Lum-Fura connection is only a cause of suspicion if one of them is a confirmed elim, which neither of us are at this point."

Unfortunately, there's rarely a confirmed elim until one is dead. There is only suspicion. It's the same for villagers, in the sense that people can be viewed as village, but confirmed village is difficult to obtain without first dying. 

The biggest solution would be to lynch one or the other of you. If one flips village, I'd be more likely to view the other neutral/village. If one flips elim, I'd probably be willing to lynch the other, just in case, unless other evidence arises.

Edited February 21, 2019 by Elandera
Spelling, my phone either thinks I'm always wanting to talk about food, or it just hopes I'm not talking about lynches all the time.

[Kidpen]

I'm going to go ahead and delay the end of the turn 24 hours to account for the delay at the beginning. Sorry again for the inconvenience! The night will now end tomorrow, February 22nd, at 10 PM MST

[Fifth Scholar]

Hmm. I had thought that the bendalloy would still cause the lynched player’s alignment to be shown. It’s a little annoying, for the time being, that we still have to take CadCom’s words with a grain of salt. Luckily, he’s already given the two things I most want out of him if he is a villager—a reads list, and an analysis of last cycle’s lynch. @Cadmium Compounder, if you have further thoughts, please share them. 

I’ll be fairly busy tonight, and as I’ll be travelling tomorrow I likely won’t be the most active, but I do hope to get in some analysis when I can. More specifically, I’d like to look at some of the people who haven’t necessarily been analysed yet. I do have one question for @Kidpen, though; is there an inactivity filter of any sort? I’d rather not waste lynches on lurkers or inactives.