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2 hours ago, Eternum said:

I don't remember who proposed revealing what medallions we had C1 on C2, but that's a far better idea than claiming now.

It was originally Fifth who said(I've already quoted this, so won't do so again)

Quote

Second, why this cycle? It would be much more effective next cycle after metalminds have rotated out of mostly Eliminator hands, as we’d get a much more honest portrait of which metalminds are out there.

Which I took to mean "C2, the villagers should claim what they have because by C2 the medallions will be more proportionally distributed between village and elim'. Fura was the one to publicly interpret Fifth's statement as "C2, the villagers should claim what they had on C1", which I believe makes far more sense than my interpretation, and was quite possibly what Fifth actually meant.

2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Why is it a better C2 lynch over a C1 one? One of the people claiming Aluminum is lying. So they are either an elim, or a valuable role. There are 4 elims, and 4-5 roles that would likely lie about them.

Presumably, the idea behind lynching an aluminium claimer C2 is that it gives the potential village owner of the tin medallion time to check which of the claimants is lying. We can speculate which one is lying this cycle, I suspect it's one of the middle claimers, but we can't be entirely sure without a scan. Unfortunately, I don't see why the elims would have given a tin medallion to a villager, so we'd have to hope the randomly distributed one went to a villager.

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Whoa whoa whoa! I don't think Fura is a lynch-worthy target! Just a person of interest. I would much rather lynch one of the people of the 7. Let's not have any of this bandwagon stuff going on. Here's the list of 7

Lumgol They are the one that claimed last, so they threw the number above the maximum of 6. By the time they revealed this, it was already known that if one more person were to claim, it would throw suspicion on the whole of the group. While it is possible that they are trying to pull some type of gambit, I don't think they would do that, and for that I am clearing them for now. 

Elandera They themselves have admitted to being bad at lying when they are an elim. So this means that they could be an elim lying, or a villager actually role claiming. I'm putting them as neutral for now. Also, if he is an Elim, and lynched today, that would be painfully ironic, due to his elim track record. 

Most of their posts have been regarding medallion mechanics, and how the medallions must have been distributed. Ultimately they read as standard D1 posts. Clarifications, and speculations. However, I don't notice any player analysis, so that could mean something. 

Ark1002 Ark doesn't have much content yet, and the content they does have is very brief. I don't see that as particularly telling of of them either way, because their post styles are usually fairly brief and to the point. Neutral for now, just because I can't lean either way with him. 

Steeldancer Not a ton of posts from Steeldancer. He has claimed to have 2 medallions, which makes me slightly more likely to believe hiis claim. Soft clear on Steeldancer

CadCom I feel like others would be best to do this analysis, as I'm obviously biased with my super villagey perspective;):ph34r: (I'm pretty sure I claimed first

Xino has very few posts. One is responding to Fathertiempo's question about how many elims there are, informing him that we don't know the number, but also stating that we can guess based on relevant information. It is interesting that they didn't provide any guesses themselves. This could be considered suspicious, but at the same time, if he's just been somewhat inactive this cycle, it is completely reasonable I have a hard time voting for them though, because i don't have very strong case due to lack of posts yet, as this could be caused by many things. 

Fathertiempo Their posts tend to ring village to me, I am hesitant clearing them though, because I've never played with them before, therefore I do not know their playstyle. I'm also even more hesitant to put them up for the lynch, because it's not very neighborly to kill off someone D1 the first time they play a game in the community. We don't want anyone moving to other pastures :)

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Based on the Order people claimed, CadCom, Elan, Steel, Ark, Xino, Father, Lumgol, I am leaning toward either Elan, Steel, ark or Xino. But from above, Elan, Ark, and Xino were my neutrals/suspicious. I still don't feel good about the xino lynch, because it's too early to tell whether or not they'll start posting more. And Ark is only neutral because I have no read. so I'm going to vote for Droughtbringer, Elandera. 

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(if anyone else still wants to claim aluminum, I'll put your names on the list as well! For any additional person who truthfylly claims , it increases the likelihood that we catch an elim from this group. because currently it's 1/7 or more, but if we get one more person who says that they have aluminum, then it becomes 2/8(1/4) or more, two more people to claim and it's 3/9(1/3) or more. That's why I think it's better to focus on this group. Currently We know for sure that there is at least one liar, therefore most likely elim in this group.)

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With regards to the Fura lynch, I don't see that it's a very beneficial lynch at the time. Of course, it was Fura's idea todo a medallion call, and unless I've missed something, they still haven't participated. I see two possible causes for that. 1 is that they are actually elim, and the other is because when they asked about the medallion call, they just wanted to guage the group's reaction, and they have been in favor of not revealing any info at this time. I would like to see them claim if they haven't yet. 

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1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Why is it a better C2 lynch over a C1 one? 

Do you think the points I made in my posts are invalid? Eternum, you are picking and choosing parts of my posts that make me look suspicious. I encourage everyone voting on me to reread my posts, as I give my reasonings in there. If you still find me suspicious, I have no problem with that. But contradicting me when I give my reasons and you do not should not be suitable grounds for a lynch.

For those of you who have played games with me before, please note that we should have learned enough about the elims at this point that (in my opinion) it should be relatively clear that I had nothing to do with distributing the medallions.

Sorry for the bad formatting, by the way- I'm doing this from mobile.

First off, I'd say it's a better C2 lynch because the person with Tin (if they're a villager, and the chances point to yes) could use their medallion to see who is lying. That person is most likely an elim, as lying about their medallion just.. doesn't sound like a great idea when they can claim they just have one without revealing the power, or even not claim at all. And.. I just noticed Devotary responded to that an hour ago. Whoops. Well, either way.

Second, yes, I do believe your points are invalid, and I've explained why. You yourself admitted that Fifth's plan is better, and yet you still stick to your guns and claim that this would help the village, when in reality claiming on C1 only helps the elims. The elims do not know where the medallions they *didn't* distribute go, and thus there is still information they need. I talked about this before-- If someone claims a metal the elims want gone, they can just.. take them out if they roleclaim. I believe my case against you is fairly solid, and I'd like you to provide equally solid proof to the contrary, as opposed to claims that I'm cherry-picking your posts.

Third, I.. really don't understand what you're trying to convey in the last paragraph of your post.

I'm going to leave my vote on you for now.

EDIT: @Cadmium Compounder, I'm pretty sure Fura claimed to have an iron medallion.

Edited by Eternum
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55 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

 

Do you think the points I made in my posts are invalid? 

@Furamirionind No. I think all points that I have seen you making were good points. Although I do think we should wait for a medallion call till at least the next cycle. Besides that wasn't the only post I took into consideration. I had been looking through each character choice in my own before. And that post was more like a tipping point. 

I am not completely convinced you are a southerner but for now you are my best guess. I will almost definitively change my mind at least twice from now and the end of the cycle. I only placed my 'vote' in case I wasn't able to vote later. My final vote will rest on whether or not a tineye finds a liar.

Please bear in mind I'm new to this. I mean none of this personally.

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6 minutes ago, FatherTiempo said:

I only placed my 'vote' in case I wasn't able to vote later. My final vote will rest on whether or not a tineye finds a liar.

Please bear in mind I'm new to this. I mean none of this personally.

Unfortunately, The tineye action takes place at rollover, which is the time between the day turn and the night turn, and the lynch ends at the end of the day turn, so we won't know the results until after this lynch. 

And don't worry, I'm pretty sure fura knows you don't mean anything personally,(is it fair to speak for someone else?) it's just that none of us like being lynched D1. Happened to me last game it was a bummer. 

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1 minute ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Unfortunately, The tineye action takes place at rollover, which is the time between the day turn and the night turn, and the lynch ends at the end of the day turn, so we won't know the results until after this lynch.

Oooooooooh...

Dang. 

Well then. Uhhhh. 

I'll side with majority to prevent a random lynch. Unless something presents itself over the RL night.

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24 minutes ago, Eternum said:

First off, I'd say it's a better C2 lynch because the person with Tin (if they're a villager, and the chances point to yes) could use their medallion to see who is lying. That person is most likely an elim, as lying about their medallion just.. doesn't sound like a great idea when they can claim they just have one without revealing the power, or even not claim at all. And.. I just noticed Devotary responded to that an hour ago. Whoops. Well, either way.

Yep, I agree with that after reading the reasoning.

24 minutes ago, Eternum said:

Second, yes, I do believe your points are invalid, and I've explained why. You yourself admitted that Fifth's plan is better, and yet you still stick to your guns and claim that this would help the village, when in reality claiming on C1 only helps the elims. The elims do not know where the medallions they *didn't* distribute go, and thus there is still information they need. I talked about this before-- If someone claims a metal the elims want gone, they can just.. take them out if they roleclaim. I believe my case against you is fairly solid, and I'd like you to provide equally solid proof to the contrary, as opposed to claims that I'm cherry-picking your posts.

I admitted Fifth's plan was better, and stopped talking about people claiming. Yeah, I still think it would help the village. We know there are (likely) 6 aluminum out there, but I want to know how many of each, and I don't want to count on Gold (I think it was?) to tell me. I would much rather have people claim individually, and have those claims analysed by whoever gets gold.

Yes, and I already agreed with Elandera that the valuable roles shouldn't claim. (Pewter, Bronze and Tin off the top of my head). But that is only 3 players...

 

13 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

And don't worry, I'm pretty sure fura knows you don't mean anything personally,(is it fair to speak for someone else?) it's just that none of us like being lynched D1. Happened to me last game it was a bummer. 

Sure. : ) Getting lynched is just part of the game.
I have no issue getting lynched D1... Except for the fact I like the ruleset and kind of want a chance to use at least one medallion before I die.

 

As CadCom is driving discussion, i'll take my vote off him for the moment. I am tempted to vote on Elandera purely because she will then have 2 votes on her compared to my 4... But I am not feeling very suspicious of her. I can't think of anyone specifically, so I will just hold off from voting for the time being. I will try to put one in before rollover.

CadCom

Edited by Furamirionind
Forgot to remove vote
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15 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

@Fifth Scholar I admit claiming C2 what we had C1 is probably a better than claiming C1. I hadn't thought about that.

I think my concern was that if someone with a medallion dies this cycle I wasnt sure if we would see what medalion was destroyed.

Alright, time for multiquoting again because I’m only going to really be able to post a good, thorough post once a cycle. The above post is making me reconsider my vote on Furamirionind, though it’s also illustrative of why I remain in two minds about her. The first paragraph screams village to me; acknowledging a potential error and offering a perhaps better solution is not something I associate with Eliminator tactics. That said, the second part of her post confuses me, and I’d like her to explain it more thoroughly; if your main concern was lack of information upon a person being lynched, a simple question to Kidpen could have clarified the matter, and unless my memory fails me (which it might) I don’t think you brought that point up before. This post gives me an overall village lean, which I’ll explain a little more further down. 

6 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I'm going to go ahead and finish some mmymedallion analysis. New info has been discussed that changed my position on some of the previous medals(especially Pewter)  But I feel that these have been discussed adequately in the thread, so I will leave them out for now. 

Spoiler for Length:

  Hide contents

 

Electrum: You can find out where one of your medallions goes. You do not get to choose which one you find out about. (Night) I kind of like this role, because, more than anything, it seems fun. It can be helpful in tracking medallions, but because medallions are switched randomly, it doesn't necessarily mean that it helps us track Elims. So the reason it's fun is because we can't use this medallion to directly find and expose eliminators, but it has the potential to be an obscure puzzle piece, when used in the right way, to piece things together. 

Gold: You can see all of the medallions that were passed on last night. (Day)  This is a good role to have. It allows us to determine exactly which medallions are in play. Now there is a chance that each medallion stays with it's owner, therefore, not being passed, and avoiding a Gold scan. If an elim or inactive happens to have this at first, then we will have to wait another cycle before getting this count, but I personally like the idea of revealing a gold scan to the thread after it happens, because it lets everyone know what's in play, and gives the village more info than it gives the Elims. 

Bendalloy: Whoever is lynched this turn will be able to survive until the end of the night. However, it will be announced in the night thread both who was lynched and the vote count.  (Day) This is cool because if you use this, the lynchee will get one last ultimatum. One last chance to reveal everything they know, knowing that they will be lynched. I personally think that later in the game, Elims could be a little bit scared of this role, and therefore less likely to give it out to people. (though it appears that they may have only given out some medallions, like Aluminum, and just a few others. 

Cadmium: Voting will end five minutes early, adding on if done multiple times. The lynched will still not be lynched until the next turn, and it will not be announced that this happened until they are. This can take affect a maximum of five times per turn. (Day) I obviously need this medallion. It's the best one in the game. (Not biased or anything) :D Anyway. I like this medallion, and If I were elim, I would have distributed at least one or two of these, because I think it's a fun new mechanic, and having an advanced knowledge that these are out there, allows you to better determine when/if a hammer is necessary. That being said, I don't think I've seen anyone claim these yet, so perhaps there aren't very many. I also agree though, that having them does make last minute hammers more unlikely, as people will not want their vote to be cancelled. 

Duralumin: Each other power you have can be used twice this cycle. (Passive) Alone, This role seems pretty useless, but I do like the possibility of having it with another medallion(unless it's aluminum) (I had a large tangent here, that After getting down to Aluminum, I realized didn't work the way I thought it worked.) Anyway, that was a useless tangent. I think that in general, this is more likely to be a medallion more helpful to the village than to the Elims, so I doubt that there are many in play. 

Nicrosil: You can choose one person to be able to use their powers twice in the same amount of time. This takes effect the following day. They will be informed of this. (Night) I've already mentioned that I have this medallion, I think the mechanic gives potential for either Elims or Village, the Elims can use it on one of their own, that has the I see a potential for stacking with these though.  If I were to use Nicrosil on someone, who then, the next cycle, had nicrosil, could they use that twice on someone, giving that person 3 usable charges, therefore, allowing it to compound and compound, until someone wanted to use it to use an action even more than twice? Either way, If I were Elim, I would think that this role seems to be useful enough to put a lot in play, because It would allow people who are confirmed to be on my team to have multiple actions, and I think the payout would be worth the risk of giving it to a lot of eliminators. 

Chromium: You may use this on one person and all of their passive affects will be disabled and their actions will fail. Bronze will not be effective on them. This takes effect the following day. (Night) I think that This would be more useful for elims than villagers as well, and similar to the last one, I think that Elims might think that the payout is worth the risk. This is because Elims have the advantage of knowing who is on whose team, and at least at one point, who has what roles. 

Aluminum: If you use this all medallions you get next day will have no abilities and be undetectable by bronze. (Night) I'm personally not planning on using my aluminum, but if I had something to hide, I might use it, because it gives me a single cycle, where maybe I can get scanned, and cleared, because I would be able to say "I didn't get anything this cycle" and a scan would 'confirm' that, making me more trustworthy. Scans like this are usually unlikely, and hard to plan perfectly, so under most situations, it wouldn't be worth the effort. 

 

I'd also like to further the lynch discussion in the thread now. So far the only vote I saw was on Furamirionind. It looks like, unfortunately, we are starting to get into a habit of late lynches, which gives an unfair disadvantage to whoever happens to be in the wrong time zone for the game schedule. Obviously I'm partially to blame, as I'm placing my lynch in the last 16 hours of the cycle as well. But better late than later or never, i suppose. 

I can't help but agree with the suspicious nature of Fura's desire to have everyone medallion claim, on the very first post of this cycle. Elims already know who has most of the medallions, but it would be in their best interest to get as much information as possible about the additional medallions, to know who to fear this cycle. If they could have gotten someone to claim a valuable role, then this, however, their posts of explanation later on, suffice an explanation for me for now. So, I'm going to look at other candidates from this point going forward. 

So far, it seems, based on the reveals so far, that no one has more than 2 medallions, and those that have claimed to have 2 so far, at least one of them is Aluminum, which suggests that the Elims gave it to them.  Additionally, already, 6 people have claimed to have Aluminum Medallions, and there cannot be more than 6, so if anyone else does have aluminum, please speak up, we will be able to determine with certainty that at least one of us is lying. (Unfortunately, if you do speak up, out of a technicality, you will be added to that list of possible liars, but in my book you would be slightly more cleared than the others) 

As for now, Droughtbringer, This is more of a poke vote than anything else though, You are the first person who has claimed 2 medallions without explicitly claiming aluminum. While I suppose it is technically possible that both of his medallions came from the random assignment of one of each medallion beginning C1, he would then be the first to have definitely gotten 2 from that if that were the case. I don't know specifically what information I'm looking for from them, because I don't want to make them role claim if they don't want to. But if they respond, I'll judge whether it satisfies the type of response I'm looking for. @droughtbringer (My tag function doesn't appear to be working. I'll try editing it and seeing if the tag works then. 

I’m not going to bother commenting much on CadCom’s role analysis, as I simply wouldn’t have the time, though I’d like it if somebody else could at least skim it and give their thoughts. I’m glad that he seems to be putting real effort into analysis, though. 

Not tunnelling on Fura is certainly a point in CadCom’s favour, in my eyes, though it should be noted that the post does look a little like hedging. Given my own conflicting thoughts on Fura, however, I’m less minded to condemn him for it. 

After CadCom’s urging for somebody to claim another aluminum, and then the way he seems to place more emphasis on the fact that that person may be more cleared, the interactions between CadCom and Lumgol, the seventh aluminum claimant, could be worth examining. At the very least, I’m not going to clear anybody who claimed aluminum from the order in which they claimed, as any such underlying logic is inherently IKYK. 

From my admittedly poor math, a player has about a 60% chance of getting a random medallion to begin the game, which, while I don’t know the specific formula to find the odds of getting two, I’d imagine that it’d be somewhere between 20 and 36 percent. Therefore, suspecting Drought for having two metalminds seems a little like grasping at straws, and worsens my view on CadCom slightly. 

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I dont really understand why people think I am suspicious other than the reason I am asking people to claim, which I already address In detail, is something that helps the village much more than the elims for C1. I will not be asking people to roleclaim other cycles, because that will benifit the elims more.

Cadcom has been an elim 2 of his past 3 games if I remember correctly, but I find it interesting that you were in mild support for the role claiming earlier, and now are suspicious of those who started it?

CadCom

Yeah, so this is the reason I haven’t retracted from Fura yet. After acknowledging that a C2 claim may have been better, she immediately pivots to defending her earlier stance, and then jumps on to CadCom for mild hypocrisy. While I’m not getting great vibes off CadCom myself, this post is inconsistent with Fura’s earlier statements, and also brings up a completely unrelated point. Why does CadCom’s Elim status in the past two out of three games make him suspicious in this one? 

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

The question here is does Duralumin extend to medallions only, or would it also include the elim kill? It says "power", so I'd venture to guess the latter. If so, I could imagine at least one of these in play in elim hands for C1. 

The same could potentially extend to Nicrosil as well, if the ability extends to the night and not just the next day. 

@Kidpen, would you be willing to clarify if powers means only medallions?

For the person(s) who has gold, tonight would be a great night to use it, to get an idea of how many of what kinds of medallions we have out there. That knowledge will likely give us a look into the kind of personalities we have among the elims (are they more reserved, logical sorts... or would they be a bit crazy with distribution).

As for the lynch discussion, Fura's push to share medallions isn't inherently elim. I'd actually see it as more village because elims already have a fair bit of knowledge regarding who has which medallions.

I'll place a poke vote on shanerockes for now, as I don't believe they've posted yet this game. @shanerockes. I also don't believe we've heard from @ElendVenture either. 

The call to use gold is an excellent one, and one that I fully echo. Again, not fully hopping onto Fura’s wagon out of convenience makes me more minded to view Elandera positively, and she brings up an excellent point about what Fura may have been thinking in making her original post. However, this late in the cycle, poke votes on inactives are a wonderful way to appear to contribute to lynch discussion without actually taking a firm stance on AI issues. As such, @Elandera, what are your thoughts on the current lynch? 

3 hours ago, Eternum said:

I honestly believe CadCom is justified in suspecting those who wanted to get people to roleclaim, as the night kill happens before medallion passing. That means the elims could destroy any medallions they decide are too dangerous to keep around thanks to a hasty roleclaim.

I don't know if this fact was pointed out earlier, but for this reason I will vote Fura. Claiming on C1 does not help the village, even though at first glance it might seem so. I don't remember who proposed revealing what medallions we had C1 on C2, but that's a far better idea than claiming now.

EDIT: @FatherTiempo, my assumption that the maximum number of aluminum metalminds had been reached was because      1.There is one medallion of each type in the game regardless of what the Elims added, and 2. The Elims can add up to 5 medallions of each type.

Eternum repeats a previously stated point, though if he’s simply in agreement with it, it’s not necessarily plagiaristic. I find your vote on Fura interesting, because she was actually the first person to bring that idea up, and even voiced her support of it (though she did seem to backtrack, which just makes me more confused). Right now, the Fura lynch has received little pushback and got easy support from bandwagoning votes, and that makes me suspicious that we’re running into a mislynch here. Whatever the case, I’d appreciate it if bendalloy was used on whoever is lynched this cycle so they can pitch in their final thoughts. 

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

Why is it a better C2 lynch over a C1 one? One of the people claiming Aluminum is lying. So they are either an elim, or a valuable role. There are 4 elims, and 4-5 roles that would likely lie about them. That gives us a 50% chance that the lyier is an elim, and as killing all the elims we win, and killing all the valuable roles we don't lose, that is probably a safe bet to take.

It is even possible that there is an elim in there that isn't lying. The elims could have intentionally sent themselves an aluminum medallion to mix themselves with the crowd.

 

 

Do you think the points I made in my posts are invalid? Eternum, you are picking and choosing parts of my posts that make me look suspicious. I encourage everyone voting on me to reread my posts, as I give my reasonings in there. If you still find me suspicious, I have no problem with that. But contradicting me when I give my reasons and you do not should not be suitable grounds for a lynch.

For those of you who have played games with me before, please note that we should have learned enough about the elims at this point that (in my opinion) it should be relatively clear that I had nothing to do with distributing the medallions.

Again this post puts me in two minds about Fura. The first paragraph makes a valid point, though I’m not entirely certain the math is correct. However, as the push to claim may have resulted in villagers needing to lie to preserve secrecy, lynching away the pool of seven “suspects” isn’t a good idea, in my opinion. Eliminating groups like that based on the logic that there has to be an elim somewhere in there is, from experience, an excellent way to start a string of mislynches, and anyone placing undue attention on the seven is slightly suspicious to me. 

That said, I completely agree with the second and third paragraphs of Fura’s post. The Elims aren’t necessarily lying, and Eternum’s case against Fura did seem to cherry-pick a little. The fourth paragraph simply confuses me, as I’m not sure what it’s trying to say. The result of all of this conflicting opinion about Fura within me is that I still want her lynched (no offence Fura), as I’d like resolution to both my personal uncertainty and to discussion in this thread, which has mostly centered around her. It’s another reason I’d like the bendalloy users to go ahead and do their thing this round, as I’d very much like Fura’s final thoughts after we’ve seen her alignment. 

57 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It was originally Fifth who said(I've already quoted this, so won't do so again)

Which I took to mean "C2, the villagers should claim what they have because by C2 the medallions will be more proportionally distributed between village and elim'. Fura was the one to publicly interpret Fifth's statement as "C2, the villagers should claim what they had on C1", which I believe makes far more sense than my interpretation, and was quite possibly what Fifth actually meant.

Presumably, the idea behind lynching an aluminium claimer C2 is that it gives the potential village owner of the tin medallion time to check which of the claimants is lying. We can speculate which one is lying this cycle, I suspect it's one of the middle claimers, but we can't be entirely sure without a scan. Unfortunately, I don't see why the elims would have given a tin medallion to a villager, so we'd have to hope the randomly distributed one went to a villager.

See, it wasn’t what I actually meant, which is one of the factors pointing me towards a more village lean of Fura; she could have refuted the idea that you brought up, which was my original intent, but she instead created a sensible idea out of my post, more sensible than my original plan. This makes her look more village in my eyes, as she’d have greater incentive to simply counter my original, and poorer, idea. And yes, waiting on a tin scan before using any lynches on the “Group of Seven” is likely wise. 

24 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Whoa whoa whoa! I don't think Fura is a lynch-worthy target! Just a person of interest. I would much rather lynch one of the people of the 7. Let's not have any of this bandwagon stuff going on. Here's the list of 7

Lumgol They are the one that claimed last, so they threw the number above the maximum of 6. By the time they revealed this, it was already known that if one more person were to claim, it would throw suspicion on the whole of the group. While it is possible that they are trying to pull some type of gambit, I don't think they would do that, and for that I am clearing them for now. 

Elandera They themselves have admitted to being bad at lying when they are an elim. So this means that they could be an elim lying, or a villager actually role claiming. I'm putting them as neutral for now. Also, if he is an Elim, and lynched today, that would be painfully ironic, due to his elim track record. 

Most of their posts have been regarding medallion mechanics, and how the medallions must have been distributed. Ultimately they read as standard D1 posts. Clarifications, and speculations. However, I don't notice any player analysis, so that could mean something. 

Ark1002 Ark doesn't have much content yet, and the content they does have is very brief. I don't see that as particularly telling of of them either way, because their post styles are usually fairly brief and to the point. Neutral for now, just because I can't lean either way with him. 

Steeldancer Not a ton of posts from Steeldancer. He has claimed to have 2 medallions, which makes me slightly more likely to believe hiis claim. Soft clear on Steeldancer

CadCom I feel like others would be best to do this analysis, as I'm obviously biased with my super villagey perspective;):ph34r: (I'm pretty sure I claimed first

Xino has very few posts. One is responding to Fathertiempo's question about how many elims there are, informing him that we don't know the number, but also stating that we can guess based on relevant information. It is interesting that they didn't provide any guesses themselves. This could be considered suspicious, but at the same time, if he's just been somewhat inactive this cycle, it is completely reasonable I have a hard time voting for them though, because i don't have very strong case due to lack of posts yet, as this could be caused by many things. 

Fathertiempo Their posts tend to ring village to me, I am hesitant clearing them though, because I've never played with them before, therefore I do not know their playstyle. I'm also even more hesitant to put them up for the lynch, because it's not very neighborly to kill off someone D1 the first time they play a game in the community. We don't want anyone moving to other pastures :)

---

Based on the Order people claimed, CadCom, Elan, Steel, Ark, Xino, Father, Lumgol, I am leaning toward either Elan, Steel, ark or Xino. But from above, Elan, Ark, and Xino were my neutrals/suspicious. I still don't feel good about the xino lynch, because it's too early to tell whether or not they'll start posting more. And Ark is only neutral because I have no read. so I'm going to vote for Droughtbringer, Elandera. 

---

(if anyone else still wants to claim aluminum, I'll put your names on the list as well! For any additional person who truthfylly claims , it increases the likelihood that we catch an elim from this group. because currently it's 1/7 or more, but if we get one more person who says that they have aluminum, then it becomes 2/8(1/4) or more, two more people to claim and it's 3/9(1/3) or more. That's why I think it's better to focus on this group. Currently We know for sure that there is at least one liar, therefore most likely elim in this group.)

---

With regards to the Fura lynch, I don't see that it's a very beneficial lynch at the time. Of course, it was Fura's idea todo a medallion call, and unless I've missed something, they still haven't participated. I see two possible causes for that. 1 is that they are actually elim, and the other is because when they asked about the medallion call, they just wanted to guage the group's reaction, and they have been in favor of not revealing any info at this time. I would like to see them claim if they haven't yet. 

The tone of the first paragraph throws me off, and reads as insincere more generally. It seems overly emotional, and attempts to center our focus where it arguably shouldn’t belong yet. 

I, as stated before, disagree that Lumgol is cleared. The fact that you essentially announced that you would clear the seventh claimant before she announced her aluminum cheapens her position on the claim train even further. 

I’m not sure why Elandera's lack of analysis is particularly meaningful, as basically none of the others in that group were really doing much analysis either. Further, while I would perhaps like to see more from her, I would definitely not say that Elandera is the most suspicious of the seven. 

I don’t disagree on a significant enough level with your other analyses to warrant comment, and this post is getting too long anyway. 

Finally, encouraging more people to claim aluminum, and almost offering a clear for doing so, seems counterintuitive to me, though I’d be curious to see what others think on this matter.

Aah, you guys are posting faster than I can quote. Which is wonderful for activity, though I’m not accustomed to being on the lower end of things. Keep it up, please :) 

As for concluding thoughts: I’m suspicious of CadCom, have very mixed feelings on Fura that I’d like resolved, and I don’t advocate lynching the people in the “group of seven” for solely that purpose. 

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Haha, after reading your analysis Fifth, I started thinking, "maybe I should cast my vote on Fura". Then I realized Fura was me...

Basically, the reason for the conflicting messages in my posts is because I dont have time durring this game to really think about this game as deeply as I would like to.  This unfortunately though, is not a reason people should remove votea from me, which is why I haven't said it so far thus game.

I still like the idea of medallion claiming, but doing it the turn after makes more sense than the turn of.

Unfortunately, the other advantage to killing one of the 7, is it will likely remove an aluminum medallion from the game. A medallion the elims want.

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3 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Elandera They themselves have admitted to being bad at lying when they are an elim. So this means that they could be an elim lying, or a villager actually role claiming. I'm putting them as neutral for now. Also, if he is an Elim, and lynched today, that would be painfully ironic, due to his elim track record. 

Most of their posts have been regarding medallion mechanics, and how the medallions must have been distributed. Ultimately they read as standard D1 posts. Clarifications, and speculations. However, I don't notice any player analysis, so that could mean something.

 

3 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Based on the Order people claimed, CadCom, Elan, Steel, Ark, Xino, Father, Lumgol, I am leaning toward either Elan, Steel, ark or Xino. But from above, Elan, Ark, and Xino were my neutrals/suspicious. I still don't feel good about the xino lynch, because it's too early to tell whether or not they'll start posting more. And Ark is only neutral because I have no read. so I'm going to vote for Droughtbringer, Elandera.

I'm not sure how to respond to the vote. It seems it's on me simply for being the second (third? I can't remember and am too lazy to look) to claim aluminum. I would have no reason as an elim to claim a medallion I do not have. I find it more likely that elims are among those not claiming, or claiming to only possess medallions. Lying about which you have is a dangerous move that will bring quick reaction, and I'm far too terrible at lying to even attempt such a move.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The call to use gold is an excellent one, and one that I fully echo. Again, not fully hopping onto Fura’s wagon out of convenience makes me more minded to view Elandera positively, and she brings up an excellent point about what Fura may have been thinking in making her original post. However, this late in the cycle, poke votes on inactives are a wonderful way to appear to contribute to lynch discussion without actually taking a firm stance on AI issues. As such, @Elandera, what are your thoughts on the current lynch?

My thoughts when I decided to poke vote were generally leaning village on Fura. The initial call didn't seem inherently elim to me because of how I interpreted the rules. Her response and interpretation then to your suggestion C2 would be better pushes it more toward village. Some of the flip-flopping is a bit off, but again, I don't read it as inherent elim, just scattered neutral.

Quote

I think I'll cast my vote on Elandera, since I don't really have a particular reason to suspect any of the other members of the 7 and there seems to be a bandwagon going in that direction.

(Everything is on a different page now, so I'm stuck with this or losing everything I've typed) The strange coordination between CadCom and Lumgol seems a bit... off to me. I'm not sure why @Lumgol is saying a bandwagon going in my direction. There's been one vote. And as Fifth pointed out, CadCom did a pretty solid hard-clear of Lumgol early.

I thought of voting on him earlier when he was a bit vague about his stance on Fura, but didn't want to based on minor suspicion alone because he's been lynched early a lot. However, the recent events have me raising my eyebrow a bit more. CadCom shanerockes.

Edited by Elandera
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Now that Elandera has pointed this out, I do see that CadCom has been defending me and generally trying to coordinate me. This is a frequent tactic that elims use to get me to trust them, so I sense something off. The fact that he seems to trust me despite me being one of the 7 that claimed aluminum indicates a possible tactic to get me on the elim side and keep me around. CadCom

(I'm not meaning for you to get lynched D1, I'm sorry - just you happen to be the most logical choice for me to vote for :/ )

Edited by Lumgol
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33 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Now that Elandera has pointed this out, I do see that CadCom has been defending me and generally trying to coordinate me. This is a frequent tactic that elims use to get me to trust them, so I sense something off. The fact that he seems to trust me despite me being one of the 7 that claimed aluminum indicates a possible tactic to get me on the elim side and keep me around. CadCom

(I'm not meaning for you to get lynched D1, I'm sorry - just you happen to be the most logical choice for me to vote for :/ )

If you believe that he’s an Eliminator trying to pocket you, and that his trust in you is too unfounded, wouldn’t you want him lynched in case he was evil? I find your parenthetical interesting and slightly at odds with the rest of your post—I certainly understand wanting to spare someone the displeasure of an early death, but if you’re tipping the vote towards him, and actively causing him to be lynched, it rings slightly false that you don’t mean for him to die.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

 

I'm not sure how to respond to the vote. It seems it's on me simply for being the second (third? I can't remember and am too lazy to look) to claim aluminum. I would have no reason as an elim to claim a medallion I do not have. I find it more likely that elims are among those not claiming, or claiming to only possess medallions. Lying about which you have is a dangerous move that will bring quick reaction, and I'm far too terrible at lying to even attempt such a move.

My thoughts when I decided to poke vote were generally leaning village on Fura. The initial call didn't seem inherently elim to me because of how I interpreted the rules. Her response and interpretation then to your suggestion C2 would be better pushes it more toward village. Some of the flip-flopping is a bit off, but again, I don't read it as inherent elim, just scattered neutral.

(Everything is on a different page now, so I'm stuck with this or losing everything I've typed) The strange coordination between CadCom and Lumgol seems a bit... off to me. I'm not sure why @Lumgol is saying a bandwagon going in my direction. There's been one vote. And as Fifth pointed out, CadCom did a pretty solid hard-clear of Lumgol early.

I thought of voting on him earlier when he was a bit vague about his stance on Fura, but didn't want to based on minor suspicion alone because he's been lynched early a lot. However, the recent events have me raising my eyebrow a bit more. CadCom shanerockes.

Re: your first paragraph, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. :P The more you lie, the better you get at it! And if you had theoretically lied at this point, it would have been nearly impossible to counterclaim you, so I hope you don’t mind if I take your first statement about you being a poor liar with a grain of salt. :P 

That’s a fair assessment of Fura, I feel. I’m getting increasingly tempted to switch my vote to CadCom at this point, but I’m holding back if only because he was just killed C1 in the last MR. It’s poor logic, but I’d feel bad lynching him so early again. That said, your vote probably has better backing than mine, and...hmm. I’ll keep my vote on Fura for the time being, mostly to gauge if the train of voters at the middle of the cycle were opportunists looking for an easy lynch, or intuitive villagers that have been prematurely condemned. It’ll also resolve the pervasive uncertainty surrounding Fura’s alignment. 

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"RaLeen, sir." At this she, she held out her hand for a greeting. "I've been sent as an emissary of sorts. You looked like you knew what was happening, so I tagged along. What's your name?"

“I’m Aliat, though it gets shortened to Al a lot. RaLeen, that’s an interesting name. You came here as an emissary? What group do you represent? I thought Lerdar had briefed me on most of the major diplomats already, though apparently he missed a few. 

“As for me knowing what I’m doing? That’s a nice thought, but as a contractor for the constabulary I’m under direct supervision of both Elendel’s bureaucracy, and the eyes of the most elite police force in the world. It’s a spotlight I’ve borne, for now, but it takes a lot out of me. A lot of following specific orders, and satisfying specific people, is what I do. Anything I know is embedded within the commands of those above me.”

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The vote as it stands, a little less than two hours from turnover.

Fura (3) - Fifth, Eternum, Roadwalker
CadCom (2) - Elandera, Lumgol
Elandera (1) - CadCom
Shanerockes (1) - FatherTiempo

@FatherTiempo, generally, when you place a new vote, you'll want to put the old vote in green in your new post. It helps GMs track vote counts. Most GMs will count the last vote as the correct one, but we may need to confirm that to be the case with @Kidpen.

13 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Re: your first paragraph, if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again. :P The more you lie, the better you get at it! And if you had theoretically lied at this point, it would have been nearly impossible to counterclaim you, so I hope you don’t mind if I take your first statement about you being a poor liar with a grain of salt. :P 

That’s a fair assessment of Fura, I feel. I’m getting increasingly tempted to switch my vote to CadCom at this point, but I’m holding back if only because he was just killed C1 in the last MR. It’s poor logic, but I’d feel bad lynching him so early again. That said, your vote probably has better backing than mine, and...hmm. I’ll keep my vote on Fura for the time being, mostly to gauge if the train of voters at the middle of the cycle were opportunists looking for an easy lynch, or intuitive villagers that have been prematurely condemned. It’ll also resolve the pervasive uncertainty surrounding Fura’s alignment. 

All is fair! I'd take it with a grain of salt if anyone else said it as well!

And I'm tempted to switch my vote to Fura, because it would resolve quite a bit of discussion for today. But as the vote count stands, I'm content with leaving my vote on CadCom.

EDIT: Also, I'll likely respond to the RP next cycle. I'm at work and rather busy.

Edited by Elandera
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23 minutes ago, Elandera said:

 

@FatherTiempo, generally, when you place a new vote, you'll want to put the old vote in green in your new post. It helps GMs track vote counts. Most GMs will count the last vote as the correct one, but we may need to confirm that to be the case with @Kidpen.

Yes, I'll be counting the last vote as the correct one. 

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For purposes of self preservation, since I'm not sure if I'll be on again after this until rollover, and I'm close to being lynched elandera, furamirionid

Yes, I read the points against me, but don't have time to respond as of right now. I'll respond if I survive until the night cycle though

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I, as stated before, disagree that Lumgol is cleared. The fact that you essentially announced that you would clear the seventh claimant before she announced her aluminum cheapens her position on the claim train even further. 

An elim!Lumgol false-claiming aluminium would know perfectly well that she was running into a tin scan which could out her. As such, I don't think this is a likely move unless the elims know for sure that the village doesn't have tin(by virtue of randomly receiving the tin medallion). This of course doesn't mean we couldn't have elim!Lumgol truthfully claiming aluminium. Aside from the claims, Lumgol's voting patterns are a bit odd, almost as if she wants to vote for anyone except Fura. If Fura is evil I would look to Lumgol next, especially if no tin scan results materialise(although chances are that if an elim received tin, they'll scan aluminium anyway and be able to make up false results).

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

It seems it's on me simply for being the second (third? I can't remember and am too lazy to look) to claim aluminum. I would have no reason as an elim to claim a medallion I do not have. I find it more likely that elims are among those not claiming, or claiming to only possess medallions. Lying about which you have is a dangerous move that will bring quick reaction, and I'm far too terrible at lying to even attempt such a move.

You were the second player to claim aluminium, right after Kidpen clarified that the elims can chose which medallions players receive. The idea behind claiming weak medallions like aluminium is that there's a decent chance you were given that medallion by an elim, especially now that we know how many such medallions were created, and there's no particular reason for an elim to give themselves aluminium. At the time, with only two claimants, it wasn't worthwhile for a tin user to scan for aluminium.

To quote posts from a different page without losing your own post, ctrl+C what you have and use the + in the bottom left corner of the post you want to quote in order to grab it. Refresh your Shard window, paste in your in-progress post, and you should be able to press the 'Quote 1 post' button on the bottom right of your screen.

@Furamirionind, if you're still there, can you address what you said about hypothetical elim!Fura's medallion distribution? How would you have passed out medallions if you were evil?

 

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