Long Game 52: Treachery in the South

[Droughtbringer]

26 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

Also, I have one medallion. I won't share what it is yet.

Seems like we're mostly going with numbers, and I think that is the most useful thing for us, at the moment.

So, I'll claim that I have Two medallions.

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

@Steeldancer @Ark1002 Either of you care to explain yourselves on this matter? Particularly Steel, who claimed two metalminds.

Well, here's how I explain it: I have an aluminum medallion (are they metalminds or medallions? Does it even matter? whatever) and a copper medallion. Either I just happened to get the 2 most boring medallions by RNG, or the elims gave one or both of them to me. If they were given to me by elims, that might indicate they were handing out more useless medallions on purpose for some reason, but at the same time I feel like that wouldn't make sense because if they flood the market of medallions with useless ones, then they're less likely to get useful ones. Not sure what else there is to say on that matter.
Oh, and I got my mission call, I'm going to serve in Fort Worth Texas, speaking Marshallese. I leave June 19, so I have another 4 months to still play SE. And run a few more games. 

[Elandera]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

my apologies that I haven’t replied to your RP, but I’m simply low on time and energy right now. Hopefully Aliat will reply later.

No worries. I wouldn't have had the chance to respond today anyway. All I had was time for my quick additions to the discussion.

However, I did also claim aluminium medallion.

3 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Well, here's how I explain it: I have an aluminum medallion (are they metalminds or medallions? Does it even matter? whatever) and a copper medallion. Either I just happened to get the 2 most boring medallions by RNG, or the elims gave one or both of them to me. If they were given to me by elims, that might indicate they were handing out more useless medallions on purpose for some reason, but at the same time I feel like that wouldn't make sense because if they flood the market of medallions with useless ones, then they're less likely to get useful ones. Not sure what else there is to say on that matter.

My guess may be the flooding the market. I think the uniqueness of the mechanic might influence the elims to be a bit more free-wheeler about the logical options. From a personal standpoint, I think it would have been fun to make five of all medallions, but that's just me. That outcome isn't quite as likely, because someone on the elim team probably has some amount of self control.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Second, why this cycle? It would be much more effective next cycle after metalminds have rotated out of mostly Eliminator hands, as we’d get a much more honest portrait of which metalminds are out there.

I believe the idea of claiming this cycle is that the elims already know who was what medallions, except for the 16 randomly distributed ones. Next cycle, the elims will be almost as clueless as we are as to where all the medallions went. Claiming this cycle thus gives the elims the least amount of information, while informing us that the elims were quite willing to give the villagers medallions, albeit mostly useless ones. Still, we want to try avoiding claiming certain medallions that the elims likely would not have given to villagers.  I would say gold, bronze, tin, and pewter medallions fall into this category, and possibly a few more such as chromium and duralumin. I myself have a cadmium medallion, which isn't particularly useful at this point since hammers are unlikely. With no kill roles, we don't lose that much by not having the lynch victim die until the end of the night, but I still don't really see a point in using this medallion.

5 minutes ago, Elandera said:

However, I did also claim aluminium medallion.

With CadCom, that makes at least four players with aluminium medallions. I can't really see the point of aluminium medallions; the only useful thing they appear to do is ensure that if one so happens to receive a pewter, copper, or duralumin medallion, it can't be detected by bronze.

[Elandera]

17 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

the only useful thing they appear to do is ensure that if one so happens to receive a pewter, copper, or duralumin medallion, it can't be detected by bronze.

But the problem (as far as I understand the rules) it also nulls those medallions. So if you use aluminium, it's almost the same as using Steel on yourself, making any medallions useless.

Edit: Didn't finish my thoughts before hitting send. I could see it as somewhat useful in the sense that tracking the progress of the medallions, but since they're reassigned at random, that's not even useful.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Elandera

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 minutes ago, Elandera said:

But the problem (as far as I understand the rules) it also nulls those medallions. So if you use aluminium, it's almost the same as using Steel on yourself, making any medallions useless.

Edit: Didn't finish my thoughts before hitting send. I could see it as somewhat useful in the sense that tracking the progress of the medallions, but since they're reassigned at random, that's not even useful.

Yes, I was trying to come up with any possible reason someone would want to use an aluminium medallion and those were the only explanations I could come up with. Overall, I don't expect anyone to actually use an aluminium medallion The Electrum medallion's ability suggests that each medallion is reassigned separately, so that's not really useful either. Perhaps those with aluminium medallions have a greater than proportional chance of being villagers, but there are better uses for tin than that.

[Furamirionind]

@Fifth Scholar I admit claiming C2 what we had C1 is probably a better than claiming C1. I hadn't thought about that.

I think my concern was that if someone with a medallion dies this cycle I wasnt sure if we would see what medalion was destroyed.

[xinoehp512]

I also got an aluminum medallion.

[FatherTiempo]

Me too.

[Eternum]

That's six aluminum medallions claimed, if I'm not wrong. If everyone's being honest, that is. That should be the maximum amount. My first thought was using a Tin medallion to verify those claims. There's little point in *not* doing so, really.

[CadCom]

I'm going to go ahead and finish some mmymedallion analysis. New info has been discussed that changed my position on some of the previous medals(especially Pewter)  But I feel that these have been discussed adequately in the thread, so I will leave them out for now. 

Spoiler for Length:

Spoiler

 

Electrum: You can find out where one of your medallions goes. You do not get to choose which one you find out about. (Night) I kind of like this role, because, more than anything, it seems fun. It can be helpful in tracking medallions, but because medallions are switched randomly, it doesn't necessarily mean that it helps us track Elims. So the reason it's fun is because we can't use this medallion to directly find and expose eliminators, but it has the potential to be an obscure puzzle piece, when used in the right way, to piece things together. 

Gold: You can see all of the medallions that were passed on last night. (Day)  This is a good role to have. It allows us to determine exactly which medallions are in play. Now there is a chance that each medallion stays with it's owner, therefore, not being passed, and avoiding a Gold scan. If an elim or inactive happens to have this at first, then we will have to wait another cycle before getting this count, but I personally like the idea of revealing a gold scan to the thread after it happens, because it lets everyone know what's in play, and gives the village more info than it gives the Elims. 

Bendalloy: Whoever is lynched this turn will be able to survive until the end of the night. However, it will be announced in the night thread both who was lynched and the vote count.  (Day) This is cool because if you use this, the lynchee will get one last ultimatum. One last chance to reveal everything they know, knowing that they will be lynched. I personally think that later in the game, Elims could be a little bit scared of this role, and therefore less likely to give it out to people. (though it appears that they may have only given out some medallions, like Aluminum, and just a few others. 

Cadmium: Voting will end five minutes early, adding on if done multiple times. The lynched will still not be lynched until the next turn, and it will not be announced that this happened until they are. This can take affect a maximum of five times per turn. (Day) I obviously need this medallion. It's the best one in the game. (Not biased or anything)  Anyway. I like this medallion, and If I were elim, I would have distributed at least one or two of these, because I think it's a fun new mechanic, and having an advanced knowledge that these are out there, allows you to better determine when/if a hammer is necessary. That being said, I don't think I've seen anyone claim these yet, so perhaps there aren't very many. I also agree though, that having them does make last minute hammers more unlikely, as people will not want their vote to be cancelled. 

Duralumin: Each other power you have can be used twice this cycle. (Passive) Alone, This role seems pretty useless, but I do like the possibility of having it with another medallion(unless it's aluminum) (I had a large tangent here, that After getting down to Aluminum, I realized didn't work the way I thought it worked.) Anyway, that was a useless tangent. I think that in general, this is more likely to be a medallion more helpful to the village than to the Elims, so I doubt that there are many in play. 

Nicrosil: You can choose one person to be able to use their powers twice in the same amount of time. This takes effect the following day. They will be informed of this. (Night) I've already mentioned that I have this medallion, I think the mechanic gives potential for either Elims or Village, the Elims can use it on one of their own, that has the I see a potential for stacking with these though.  If I were to use Nicrosil on someone, who then, the next cycle, had nicrosil, could they use that twice on someone, giving that person 3 usable charges, therefore, allowing it to compound and compound, until someone wanted to use it to use an action even more than twice? Either way, If I were Elim, I would think that this role seems to be useful enough to put a lot in play, because It would allow people who are confirmed to be on my team to have multiple actions, and I think the payout would be worth the risk of giving it to a lot of eliminators. 

Chromium: You may use this on one person and all of their passive affects will be disabled and their actions will fail. Bronze will not be effective on them. This takes effect the following day. (Night) I think that This would be more useful for elims than villagers as well, and similar to the last one, I think that Elims might think that the payout is worth the risk. This is because Elims have the advantage of knowing who is on whose team, and at least at one point, who has what roles. 

Aluminum: If you use this all medallions you get next day will have no abilities and be undetectable by bronze. (Night) I'm personally not planning on using my aluminum, but if I had something to hide, I might use it, because it gives me a single cycle, where maybe I can get scanned, and cleared, because I would be able to say "I didn't get anything this cycle" and a scan would 'confirm' that, making me more trustworthy. Scans like this are usually unlikely, and hard to plan perfectly, so under most situations, it wouldn't be worth the effort. 

 

I'd also like to further the lynch discussion in the thread now. So far the only vote I saw was on Furamirionind. It looks like, unfortunately, we are starting to get into a habit of late lynches, which gives an unfair disadvantage to whoever happens to be in the wrong time zone for the game schedule. Obviously I'm partially to blame, as I'm placing my lynch in the last 16 hours of the cycle as well. But better late than later or never, i suppose. 

I can't help but agree with the suspicious nature of Fura's desire to have everyone medallion claim, on the very first post of this cycle. Elims already know who has most of the medallions, but it would be in their best interest to get as much information as possible about the additional medallions, to know who to fear this cycle. If they could have gotten someone to claim a valuable role, then this, however, their posts of explanation later on, suffice an explanation for me for now. So, I'm going to look at other candidates from this point going forward. 

So far, it seems, based on the reveals so far, that no one has more than 2 medallions, and those that have claimed to have 2 so far, at least one of them is Aluminum, which suggests that the Elims gave it to them.  Additionally, already, 6 people have claimed to have Aluminum Medallions, and there cannot be more than 6, so if anyone else does have aluminum, please speak up, we will be able to determine with certainty that at least one of us is lying. (Unfortunately, if you do speak up, out of a technicality, you will be added to that list of possible liars, but in my book you would be slightly more cleared than the others) 

As for now, Droughtbringer, This is more of a poke vote than anything else though, You are the first person who has claimed 2 medallions without explicitly claiming aluminum. While I suppose it is technically possible that both of his medallions came from the random assignment of one of each medallion beginning C1, he would then be the first to have definitely gotten 2 from that if that were the case. I don't know specifically what information I'm looking for from them, because I don't want to make them role claim if they don't want to. But if they respond, I'll judge whether it satisfies the type of response I'm looking for. @droughtbringer (My tag function doesn't appear to be working. I'll try editing it and seeing if the tag works then. 

[Rathmaskal]

Hey folks. Mostly just checking in... aaaaaand laughing at my medallion draw. 1 electrum medallion. That's it. Glad I get to know who gets it next! Haha. 

I'll try to get a bit more into the conversation later. 

[Furamirionind]

I dont really understand why people think I am suspicious other than the reason I am asking people to claim, which I already address In detail, is something that helps the village much more than the elims for C1. I will not be asking people to roleclaim other cycles, because that will benifit the elims more.

Cadcom has been an elim 2 of his past 3 games if I remember correctly, but I find it interesting that you were in mild support for the role claiming earlier, and now are suspicious of those who started it?

CadCom

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Duralumin: Each other power you have can be used twice this cycle. (Passive) Alone, This role seems pretty useless, but I do like the possibility of having it with another medallion(unless it's aluminum) (I had a large tangent here, that After getting down to Aluminum, I realized didn't work the way I thought it worked.) Anyway, that was a useless tangent. I think that in general, this is more likely to be a medallion more helpful to the village than to the Elims, so I doubt that there are many in play.

The question here is does Duralumin extend to medallions only, or would it also include the elim kill? It says "power", so I'd venture to guess the latter. If so, I could imagine at least one of these in play in elim hands for C1. 

The same could potentially extend to Nicrosil as well, if the ability extends to the night and not just the next day. 

@Kidpen, would you be willing to clarify if powers means only medallions?

For the person(s) who has gold, tonight would be a great night to use it, to get an idea of how many of what kinds of medallions we have out there. That knowledge will likely give us a look into the kind of personalities we have among the elims (are they more reserved, logical sorts... or would they be a bit crazy with distribution).

As for the lynch discussion, Fura's push to share medallions isn't inherently elim. I'd actually see it as more village because elims already have a fair bit of knowledge regarding who has which medallions.

I'll place a poke vote on shanerockes for now, as I don't believe they've posted yet this game. @shanerockes. I also don't believe we've heard from @ElendVenture either. 

[Kidpen]

28 minutes ago, Elandera said:

The question here is does Duralumin extend to medallions only, or would it also include the elim kill? It says "power", so I'd venture to guess the latter. If so, I could imagine at least one of these in play in elim hands for C1. 

The same could potentially extend to Nicrosil as well, if the ability extends to the night and not just the next day. 

@Kidpen, would you be willing to clarify if powers means only medallions?

For the person(s) who has gold, tonight would be a great night to use it, to get an idea of how many of what kinds of medallions we have out there. That knowledge will likely give us a look into the kind of personalities we have among the elims (are they more reserved, logical sorts... or would they be a bit crazy with distribution).

As for the lynch discussion, Fura's push to share medallions isn't inherently elim. I'd actually see it as more village because elims already have a fair bit of knowledge regarding who has which medallions.

I'll place a poke vote on shanerockes for now, as I don't believe they've posted yet this game. @shanerockes. I also don't believe we've heard from @ElendVenture

"Powers" refers only to medallions, in both nicrosil and duralumin. 

[Lumgol]

I have an aluminum medallion. @Cadmium Compounder

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So CadCom, Ark, Elandera, Steel, Xino, FatherTiempo, and Lumgol all claim to have an aluminium medallion. Since there are a maximum of six aluminium medallions in the game, at least one of them is lying. Would any of you like to change your claim? If not, it might well be worth it for a villager with a tin medallion to determine who is lying.

[FatherTiempo]

Eternum: Eternum made his first comment talking about elims. Now this could be clue that he's a southerner. Because I didn't know about round sending a list to the GM about medallions. If more than four other players did know that then this isn't a clue. Then later he talked about the maximum aluminum medals being used. This to I didn't know but if more than four players can verify than I wouldn't lynch Eternum yet.

Droughtbringer: Early on he said not to give a medallion call because of giving elims info. Unless we're using deep reverse psychology I don't think it's him.

Lumgal: It could be Lumgal but I'm not sure yet. Too little info.

Elandera: I don't know but probably not Elandra.

Rasthmaskal: Suspiciously short comment but not definite.

Ark1002: nothing

Lumgol: nothing

I think I am here: nothing

Snipexe: probably not Snipexe

Steeldancer: not sure but probably not.

CC: has been very descriptive with long descriptions of metals. I don't think its him but it could be

Xineohp512: I don't think so

Devotary: probably not but he could be using reverse psychology when he said he wasn't sure how elims handed out metals.

Roadwalker: I'm not sure. 

ElendVenture: no comment very suspicious

Shanerocks: same as Elend

In conclusion I think that Eternum is suspicious but I need someone to say they knew what he said or could figure it out. If not then it's probably ElendVenture or shanerocks. 

 

Phew that was way to much brain usage.I

 

Also I was not lying. Although if I was lying them that's what I would say. And if I was lying I would say that to! But if I was lying would I have said THAT to? 

Seriously though, I have aluminum.

 

[Eternum]

I honestly believe CadCom is justified in suspecting those who wanted to get people to roleclaim, as the night kill happens before medallion passing. That means the elims could destroy any medallions they decide are too dangerous to keep around thanks to a hasty roleclaim.

I don't know if this fact was pointed out earlier, but for this reason I will vote Fura. Claiming on C1 does not help the village, even though at first glance it might seem so. I don't remember who proposed revealing what medallions we had C1 on C2, but that's a far better idea than claiming now.

EDIT: @FatherTiempo, my assumption that the maximum number of aluminum metalminds had been reached was because      1.There is one medallion of each type in the game regardless of what the Elims added, and 2. The Elims can add up to 5 medallions of each type.

Edited February 20, 2019 by Eternum

[FatherTiempo]

Khaldar clamped his ears over the ruckus. It was every man against his neighbor. Threats were made accusations. He was just glad the finger hadn't been pointed at him, yet.

 @Eternum okay that makes sense. 

Edited February 20, 2019 by FatherTiempo

[CadCom]

2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I dont really understand why people think I am suspicious other than the reason I am asking people to claim, which I already address In detail, is something that helps the village much more than the elims for C1. I will not be asking people to roleclaim other cycles, because that will benifit the elims more.

Cadcom has been an elim 2 of his past 3 games if I remember correctly, but I find it interesting that you were in mild support for the role claiming earlier, and now are suspicious of those who started it?

CadCom

I'm going to ignore the part about past games, and I hope everyone else does too. My odds of being an elim (Or anyone else's odds for that matter) are probably 4/18 regardless of whether I was the previous game. I realize that you probably know that as well, and were just putting that in there to make sure everyone knows. I am still supporting role claiming, there was just something about Fifth's post where he voted for you That made me re-read your posts, and in my head, all of a sudden I read a more suspicious tone to your first couple of posts. Like I said, It's not enough to pursue it at this time, but I'm just letting you and everyone else know. 

4 minutes ago, Lumgol said:

I have an aluminum medallion. @Cadmium Compounder

This portion, I was ninja'd by Devotary. We now have a list of seven suspects. From that list, at least one person is definitely lying, so they are likely an Eliminator. Any Tin medallions should definitely scan Aluminum. I want to change my vote to one of the other 6 in that group, not me, in order to hit one of them, but I'm still waiting for a response from @droughtbringer. It seems my tag function still isn't working. Hopefully he sees these messages. 

[FatherTiempo]

I don't think Lumgal or CC is lying and I'm not lying. So I would investigate the others I don't think it's Elandra though because it was said as kind of an after thought. But I don't know for certain in any case. I will also withhold my vote till word gets back from the tinnites at the lab. (I've always wanted to say that)

Edited February 20, 2019 by FatherTiempo

[Sparkrunner]

The person who is potentially lying about an aluminum medallion is a good C2 lynch, but right now

1 hour ago, Eternum said:

I honestly believe CadCom is justified in suspecting those who wanted to get people to roleclaim, as the night kill happens before medallion passing. That means the elims could destroy any medallions they decide are too dangerous to keep around thanks to a hasty roleclaim.

I don't know if this fact was pointed out earlier, but for this reason I will vote Fura. Claiming on C1 does not help the village, even though at first glance it might seem so. I don't remember who proposed revealing what medallions we had C1 on C2, but that's a far better idea than claiming now.

Eternum sums it up nicely, and this puts anyone else on the medallion-claiming train under suspicion. Furamin is the first to suggest role-claiming, and says "this is the cycle to do it."

[FatherTiempo]

That is a good point. My vote for now is Furamirionind.

 

[Furamirionind]

52 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

The person who is potentially lying about an aluminum medallion is a good C2 lynch, but right now

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

Why is it a better C2 lynch over a C1 one? One of the people claiming Aluminum is lying. So they are either an elim, or a valuable role. There are 4 elims, and 4-5 roles that would likely lie about them. That gives us a 50% chance that the lyier is an elim, and as killing all the elims we win, and killing all the valuable roles we don't lose, that is probably a safe bet to take.

It is even possible that there is an elim in there that isn't lying. The elims could have intentionally sent themselves an aluminum medallion to mix themselves with the crowd.

2 hours ago, Eternum said:

I don't know if this fact was pointed out earlier, but for this reason I will vote Fura. Claiming on C1 does not help the village, even though at first glance it might seem so. I don't remember who proposed revealing what medallions we had C1 on C2, but that's a far better idea than claiming now.

 

57 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Eternum sums it up nicely, and this puts anyone else on the medallion-claiming train under suspicion. Furamin is the first to suggest role-claiming, and says "this is the cycle to do it."

 

44 minutes ago, FatherTiempo said:

That is a good point. My vote for now is Furamirionind.

Do you think the points I made in my posts are invalid? Eternum, you are picking and choosing parts of my posts that make me look suspicious. I encourage everyone voting on me to reread my posts, as I give my reasonings in there. If you still find me suspicious, I have no problem with that. But contradicting me when I give my reasons and you do not should not be suitable grounds for a lynch.

For those of you who have played games with me before, please note that we should have learned enough about the elims at this point that (in my opinion) it should be relatively clear that I had nothing to do with distributing the medallions.