Long Game 52: Treachery in the South

[Steeldancer]

I had an electrum and duralumin last cycle. Very exciting I know. Almost as exciting as us finally having lynched an elim. 
Sadly, I neither have time to celebrate or analyze, because I have a very large midterm that will occupy all my time today. Maybe I'll have time tomorrow... oh who am I kidding. I probably won't have time. sigh I'll try to be on tomorrow at some point to vote on whoever seems most likely to be eliminator based on interactions with Roadwalker. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

6 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Who was the other option for having rioted the vote?

Elandera was the other alternative, as she died with a zinc medallion. Snipexe is the only surviving player to have had a zinc medallion last turn. My paragraph is hedgy because I'm listing out possibilities, rather than giving likelihoods. I'll do that later.

When you say all the bendalloy is accounted for, where did they come from? If Roadwalker was telling the truth about six bendalloy, then during cycle 2, you had two, with Fura, FatherTiempo, and Itiah having one each. That only adds up to five. I'm still not sure how he missed Eternum's name in his PM, but that's pretty much a dead issue at this point.

1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

I agree with Mail that I think the Ark thing has been pushed a lot by others. The gambit of giving up an elim is too dangerous to play off

Is this about Roadwalker asking Ark to confirm his gold scan, or is there something more that I'm missing? 

Last cycle, I had cadmium, bendalloy, aluminium, tin, bronze, and pewter, without having used an iron medallion the cycle before. It's kind of odd how medallions keep getting concentrated into the hands of so few. Assuming Roadwalker's "gold scan" gave a semi-accurate representation of the number of medallions, there were thirty five medallions distributed among twelve people. Roadwalker, Elandera, Fura, Mail, Drought, and I claim to have had fifteen medallions among us, so that leaves twenty medallions among the remaining six players. Everyone else, does this seem accurate?

[Mailliw73]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

When you say all the bendalloy is accounted for, where did they come from? If Roadwalker was telling the truth about six bendalloy, then during cycle 2, you had two, with Fura, FatherTiempo, and Itiah having one each. That only adds up to five. I'm still not sure how he missed Eternum's name in his PM, but that's pretty much a dead issue at this point.

Last cycle, I had cadmium, bendalloy, aluminium, tin, bronze, and pewter, without having used an iron medallion the cycle before. It's kind of odd how medallions keep getting concentrated into the hands of so few. Assuming Roadwalker's "gold scan" gave a semi-accurate representation of the number of medallions, there were thirty five medallions distributed among twelve people. Roadwalker, Elandera, Fura, Mail, Drought, and I claim to have had fifteen medallions among us, so that leaves twenty medallions among the remaining six players. Everyone else, does this seem accurate?

Shane also had one, making 6. Me and Itiah were missed on his post for whatever reason. 

As long as you’re counting me as 0, then, sure.  I’m probably not going to go through and count them all. 

[I think I am here.]

10 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Is this about Roadwalker asking Ark to confirm his gold scan, or is there something more that I'm missing? 

It’s about this post: 

 

But I’m not seeing discussion on the possibility of third parties and Steel’s role. Do we think he’s lying or is there a possibility he might be trying to drag his third party members with him?

But he was an elim, so maybe he was just trying to mess with us.

[Mailliw73]

I’d be surprised if there was a third party role. Steel seems off to me and he’s still under Devotary and droguht in my suspicions, but I don’t think he’s a neutral. 

[I think I am here.]

In the counting of medallions per cycle, is there any evidence of medallions disappearing? Because if not, it’s likely that was just a bluff. What do you think of his claim on Elandera? She hasn’t responded.

[Mailliw73]

17 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

In the counting of medallions per cycle, is there any evidence of medallions disappearing? Because if not, it’s likely that was just a bluff. What do you think of his claim on Elandera? She hasn’t responded.

She’s dead. 

[I think I am here.]

5 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

She’s dead. 

Oh, I missed that  My bad.

[Furamirionind]

21 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

In the counting of medallions per cycle, is there any evidence of medallions disappearing? Because if not, it’s likely that was just a bluff. What do you think of his claim on Elandera? She hasn’t responded.

 

3 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

She’s dead. 

Ouch. You couldn't have said that in a slightly more diplomatic way?

If we want to discuss the neutral role, it is possible there is one, but there has been more issues (as far as I know) with people getting too many medallions in their PMs, not the other way around.  Because of this, I would think that a neutral would be creating medallions, which seems to not only be a little OP this game, but also is the opposite of what Roadwalker said.  So either Roadwalker was trying to mislead us about the neutral, or was lying about the neutral existing.  Either way, we cant trust him.

Anyway, if they knew who the neutral was, they should have been pushing harder for a Steel lynch... and they obviously havent pushing for it at all this game...

All that being said, I am fairly confident it was a fabrication meant to confuse us. 

The thing about Ark is meant as an IKYK.  And while I would like to hear Ark respond to it, I tend to ignore IKYKs of dead people...

[Steeldancer]

Uh yeah... no... I'm not a neutral. I honestly wish I was. I'd feel a bit less guilty about not being helpful right now. I feel like that's just an attempt to cast suspicion on me and get me lynched, which honestly confuses me. Like, I would welcome a lynch on me, as I'm not really being helpful. Also, why would they pick on ME? Why not throw suspicion on one of us who's actually being active? Or are they just going for low hanging fruit here? I'm confused by this, and I don't really have the time to try and untangle what the heck Roadwalker was trying to accomplish. Plus, it's an IKYK, and those basically just go nowhere. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Shane also had one, making 6. Me and Itiah were missed on his post for whatever reason. 

Right, you said Itiah in your post and I forgot to go back and check Roadwalker's original scan. I looked through all of Itiah's posts though, and I didn't see where he claimed to have a bendalloy medallion C2. @I think I am here., can you point me to where you claimed this?

2 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

But I’m not seeing discussion on the possibility of third parties and Steel’s role. Do we think he’s lying or is there a possibility he might be trying to drag his third party members with him?

It looks like I missed this altogether. At the very least we know that Roadwalker was lying about Elandera being involved in the village kills, as she was revealed as a normal villager upon her death. 

[Mailliw73]

55 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Right, you said Itiah in your post and I forgot to go back and check Roadwalker's original scan. I looked through all of Itiah's posts though, and I didn't see where he claimed to have a bendalloy medallion C2. @I think I am here., can you point me to where you claimed this?

It looks like I missed this altogether. At the very least we know that Roadwalker was lying about Elandera being involved in the village kills, as she was revealed as a normal villager upon her death. 

He didn’t. Once I shared that Eternum had had 2 Bendalloy medallions, Roadwalker clarified his scan to include me and Itiah. 

[Droughtbringer]

15 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Also, why would they pick on ME? Why not throw suspicion on one of us who's actually being active?

The way I see it, there are a few possible reasons:

1. You are a Nuetral Role, and he wanted to try and switch focus onto you rather than other eliminators.

2. You are another eliminator, and he went for the IKYK, only with pushing for you to be a non-elim to try and keep you safe.

3. You are a village and he is using you to distract the rest of the village.

4. You are fairly inactive and he was hoping he could cause something to happen to you, without you being able to respond and put up any form of a defense.

[Steeldancer]

Ok, so basically no one has voted, and it looks like I might need to actually say something helpful. 
Right now, I trust Maill. He seems both active and trustworthy, albeit with my typical caveat of how far my trust extends. Fura... also feels legit to me? I know there was some suspicion on them earlier, but I trust them right now, albeit less than Maill. I know I'm village, and Tiempo and Ark aren't around to actually say anything. 
This leaves Drought, Itiah, Xino (? I can't tell if their name is supposed to be crossed off or not), Devotary, and Snipexe. Snipexe seems to have some suspicion on him for possibly doing some vote manipulation? Itiah, I honestly haven't noticed much until I started going through the player list, but that's probably because I haven't been paying much attention. I should check whether or not Xino is dead, and Drought and Devotary have suspicion on them but I'm not entirely clear what for. 
Drought and Devotary seem to be on both Fura's and Maill's radar, I just don't know which one to vote for. I guess I'll just flip a coin. 
Devotary. If Devotary turns village, then it would probably be a good idea to lynch Drought. If anybody's got something better than this, please speak up. 

[Furamirionind]

3 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Ok, so basically no one has voted, and it looks like I might need to actually say something helpful. 
Right now, I trust Maill. He seems both active and trustworthy, albeit with my typical caveat of how far my trust extends. Fura... also feels legit to me? I know there was some suspicion on them earlier, but I trust them right now, albeit less than Maill. I know I'm village, and Tiempo and Ark aren't around to actually say anything. 
This leaves Drought, Itiah, Xino (? I can't tell if their name is supposed to be crossed off or not), Devotary, and Snipexe. Snipexe seems to have some suspicion on him for possibly doing some vote manipulation? Itiah, I honestly haven't noticed much until I started going through the player list, but that's probably because I haven't been paying much attention. I should check whether or not Xino is dead, and Drought and Devotary have suspicion on them but I'm not entirely clear what for. 
Drought and Devotary seem to be on both Fura's and Maill's radar, I just don't know which one to vote for. I guess I'll just flip a coin. 
Devotary. If Devotary turns village, then it would probably be a good idea to lynch Drought. If anybody's got something better than this, please speak up. 

I was just about to write a similar post, however with the opposite outcome. (Also, I think Maill Still has his vote on Drought)

Steel, Why do you trust Maill? Also, why do you trust me? So far I have somehow been lucky enough to escape every lynch, but being able to not get lynched is not a trait I would peg as a village one.

I must admit, a paranoid theory has me nervous Steel is an elim… Though I am not going to vote based on that theory as of right now.

Looking back at this post by Devotary:

I can't think of how this post would help the elims at all.  It is some analysis that if someone was an elim, would lead to target another elim, but if a villager, means nothing.  This sort of analysis I feel would do nothing for an elim, and would do plenty for a villager.  Because of that, I am also leaning a bit more village on Devotary right now.

@Snipexe, we haven't heard from you this cycle.

@Droughtbringer, I don't know... While I find you suspicious, I know I need to redo my player analysis... And by redo, I mean do real player analysis instead of circumstantial stuff like I tend to do... However, As I feel I should actually cast a vote, It has to be placed on you for the moment.  I personally felt that the discussion of whether or not Steel is a neutral ended when Steel responded to it.  I find it a bit strange that 15 hours later you bring the discussion back up.

I will likely be back on several hours from now, and hopefully I will be able to look at some players a little more closely.

For now, DroughtBringer
 

[Steeldancer]

33 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Steel, Why do you trust Maill? Also, why do you trust me? So far I have somehow been lucky enough to escape every lynch, but being able to not get lynched is not a trait I would peg as a village one.

You guys are actually putting in work for the game, doing analysis and sharing stuff. Granted, from hard experience I know that doesn't mean that confirms you guys as village, but it leads me to be inclined to trust you more than not. In essence, you guys are doing what I wish I had the time and energy to do- being helpful. 
There is also a part of me screaming that you might be a super smart eliminator team which is why we're getting wrecked, but I'm choosing to label that as paranoia for now, unless any evidence crops up to back it up. 

[Furamirionind]

50 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

You guys are actually putting in work for the game, doing analysis and sharing stuff. Granted, from hard experience I know that doesn't mean that confirms you guys as village, but it leads me to be inclined to trust you more than not. In essence, you guys are doing what I wish I had the time and energy to do- being helpful. 
There is also a part of me screaming that you might be a super smart eliminator team which is why we're getting wrecked, but I'm choosing to label that as paranoia for now, unless any evidence crops up to back it up. 

Just so you and everyone else knows, I am talking a lot, but very little of my time is actually being spent on this game.  So everything I say as analysis or my opinions should be taken with an extreme amount of salt... I would by no means say I have been being helpful.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Drought(2): Maill, Fura
Devotary(1): Steel
Snip(1): Devotary

I really don't like how Snipexe has been around recently, yet still hasn't shown up to explain their vote and riot on Xino despite being tagged several times. I personally feel it's a bad idea to let players ignore direct questions with no consequences. Perhaps one more tag will have some effect? @Snipexe

From my earlier posts, I feel Snip/Ark are more likely to be evil than Fura. I'm still not sure how I feel about Road's odd and at least partially false claim that he and Ark were evil, with additional neutral roles. I do still believe that if Road and Snip were elim and Ark was village, Snip would have double-voted for Ark instead of Xino. I haven't looked at Drought much at all, but I can try to do so before rollover. Is there anything I should know about Drought other than being unwilling to reveal medallions and bringing up the possibility of Steel being neutral?
 

[Snipexe]

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

some effect? @Snipexe

 

Sorry, I’ve been trying to write this post a few times, and every time I’ve never really been able to get across what I meant.

Devotary is correct that last turn I used zinc to add ITIAH’s vote to Xino. Now comes the complicated part, why I did it. When I read through the reasons for voting on Roadwalker now, they seem obvious. (Hindsight’s 20/20 ) however at the time, they didn’t. I was looking through the analysis on him and his previous posts, and I really couldn’t get a read either way. In my mind I think I felt that flipping the lynch to some inactive who I wasn’t sure was an elim from someone active who I wasn’t sure was an elim was a good thing. This was obviously  misguided, and I’m sorry for originally screwing things up before Kidpen fixes the vote count.

 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

13 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

In my mind I think I felt that flipping the lynch to some inactive who I wasn’t sure was an elim from someone active who I wasn’t sure was an elim was a good thing.

That's an interesting strategy, that I can think about for tomorrow. For now, my vote isn't going to accomplish much where it is. Snipexe, Droughtbringer.

[Kidpen]

The Day is over! Bear with me for rollover. 

[Kidpen]

Drought has been lynched, but did not die!

Vote Count:

Drought(3): Devotary, Fura, Maill

Devotary(1): Steel

The Night will end at 7 AM MST, March 8th.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Mailliw73

2. Droughtbringer/Kalin

3. Lumgol/Marwyn Hariel-Northern Aristocrat

4. Elandera-Northern Aristocrat

5. Rathmaskal -Northern Aristocrat

6. I think I am here/the Masked Itiah

7. Ark1002

8. Steeldancer/me

9. Cadmium Compounder/Dee Dadean-Northern Aristocrat 

10. xinoehp512/Ladem

11. Furamirionind

12. shanerockes/Timmy-Northern Aristocrat

13. Devotary of Spontaneity/Pyrhine

14. FatherTiempo/Khalder

15. Roadwalker/the Esteemed Dietrich Drake-Southern Scadrian

16. Snipexe/Snip 

17. ElendVenture/Damon-Northern Aristocrat

18. Fifth Scholar-Northern Aristocrat

 

Edited March 7, 2019 by Kidpen

[Furamirionind]

Ok, as the village has generally agreed that Bendalloy is a hindrance to the village, it would seem Drought is in fact an elim.

As Maill started the lynch when drought was under most peoples radar, he is probably village.

Devotary did put the lynch out of reach of singe/double vote manipulation, and we can see there was none.  This could either mean that the elims didnt have enough vote manip to save drought, did but were inactive, or didnt have any vote manip.

If the elims have vote manipulation this cycle, Devotary is probably village as they could have saved drought by lynching Snipexe, and it wouldnt have looked very suspicious, as snipexe is suspicious.

If the elims didnt have vote manip, Devotary could be either as the elims would know that they cant save drought, so they may as well lynch him.

What is weird, is no one seemed to really defend Drought... Devotary was the only one to address the lynch, but it was saying she would be looking closer at drought.  It did have a tone of that there wasnt enough evidence to convict him yet... but I wouldnt necessarily disagree either so... that doesnt really help.

[Mailliw73]

@Droughtbringer any confessions? 

I’m inclined to think Steel is the next elim. At that point, I’d be a little bit more stumped, but it’d be down to Snipe/Xino/Ark in that order for me. Mayyyybee Devotary pulling a long con. 

[Droughtbringer]

43 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

@Droughtbringer any confessions? 

I’m inclined to think Steel is the next elim. At that point, I’d be a little bit more stumped, but it’d be down to Snipe/Xino/Ark in that order for me. Mayyyybee Devotary pulling a long con. 

Wasn't actually Bendalloy. 

I had a Pewter medallion, and didn't realize that the lynch was going for me when I signed on last, and thusly never said anything about it. Sorry  :/