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Kidpen

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Since gold scans the medallions that were passed the night before, we are a brass, aluminium, and tin medallion down from Roadwalker's scan results. Who had the sixth bendalloy medallion on D2? Eternum had two, so one of Fura, shane, and FatherTiempo must have had two bendalloy medallions as well.

With only two zinc medallions, either Itiah is evil or there is an elim with zinc and duralumin. If anyone tin scanned for either of those two metals during the day, they should reveal once D4 starts at the latest. Cross-referencing with Elandera's D2 list of claimed medallions reveals no obvious liars, as there are at least as many medallions as were claimed for each metal.

The strangest thing though is that if shane was indeed the only player with brass, why did they soothe my vote? Did they really not want Ark to die or what?

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Hmm. Those numbers present interesting points, one being what Devotary mentioned about Shane and brass. 

Theres also only one duralumin, so whoever has that would have to be the one who changed the votes. If anyone has Tin charges left, that’d be a good one to check tonight.

 If there’s only 4 aluminum left, does that mean someone lied on that first day about their aluminum? I’m not sure how that worked out, I just know that there were 7 claims and one aluminum just died with Shane. 

Edit: and Cadcom died with aluminum, so there’s two confirmed. Also, since Fifth died with an iron, that means there were 5? Seems like a lot. 

Edited by Mailliw73
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16 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Theres also only one duralumin, so whoever has that would have to be the one who changed the votes. If there’s only 4 aluminum left, does that mean someone lied on that first day about their aluminum? I’m not sure how that worked out, I just know that there were 7 claims and one aluminum just died with Shane. 

Yes, that was resolved last day cycle with Lumgol's lynch. It turned out she was a villager with some misguided attempts to make sure no one else was lying about having aluminum by claiming (to ensure someone scanned). 

EDIT:

Sorry, I want to avoid double posting. @Mailliw73, unfortunately, if a Tin scans tonight, they see who the Duralumin was passed to, not who has it now. Day scans are what allow them to see who's holding it now.

Edited by Elandera
finished my sentence
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12 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

Ok, so its been a pretty quiet night, and before the night ends, is there anything I should know for tomorrow.

Not really that I can think of at the moment.

I'm hoping tomorrow to update my medallion claim list, and share my results before the end of voting.

If you have tin, a scan on something like zinc or brass wouldn't be a bad idea so we have an idea ahead of time if someone manipulates voting.

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In the Night, a Malwish assassin slinked off towards the room of Damon. Damon had been hardly contributing to the attempt to find them at all, and was thus a fantastic target for the wonderful Crusade they had embarked on. His throat was slit with no trouble at all.

***

ElendVenture has died! He was a Northern Aristocrat. A Bendalloy and Aluminum medallion were destroyed along with him.

About me falling asleep, I'm honestly not sure what to do about it at this point. Rest assured that I am at least stressing out about it quite a bit.

The Day will end on March 3rd, 10 PM MST.

Spoiler

1. Mailliw73

2. Droughtbringer/Kalin

3. Lumgol/Marwyn Hariel-Northern Aristocrat

4. Elandera

5. Rathmaskal -Northern Aristocrat

6. I think I am here/the Masked Itiah

7. Ark1002

8. Steeldancer/me

9. Cadmium Compounder/Dee Dadean-Northern Aristocrat 

10. xinoehp512/Ladem

11. Furamirionind

12. shanerockes/Timmy-Northern Aristocrat

13. Devotary of Spontaneity/Pyrhine

14. FatherTiempo/Khalder

15. Roadwalker/the Esteemed Dietrich Drake

16. Snipexe/Snip 

17. ElendVenture/Damon-Northern Aristocrat

18. Fifth Scholar-Northern Aristocrat

 

 

Edited by Kidpen
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52 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Kidpen, if you need to switch rollover time, I don't think any of us would object. Do what you need to do.

This is exactly what I was going to say. If making this day an hour shorter or something helps, go for it. We’re grateful you’re taking the time to run the game, so you do what you gotta do to keep going. :) 

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6 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

Pewter is passive, right? So even if someone is inactive, they could potentially be pewter-protected...

I believe that is true, and that we should try to be careful with our lynch... although we can't do much without giving away info to the elims.

I've been thinking about the structure of this game, and it seems to give a decent advantage to the elims, if the village gets any game related knowledge, it is only useful during the day, and then the game state 'resets' itself before they can use it again. Whereas the elims can use any knowledge that is gained during the Night before the game 'resets'

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Alright, be prepared for an onslaught. I have spent several hours both analyzing posts and medallion claims.

I'll start with medallions. (Spoilered for length, because this will be another incredibly long post.)

Spoiler

Ignore the X's. I had initially started tracking if someone posted in a cycle, but slowly stopped.

Player C0 D1 N1 D2 N2 D3 N3   Metal  
Eternum/Mailliw X X X   X       Steel 1
                  Iron 5 (1 destroyed)
                  Pewter 3
Droughtbringer X X X X         Tin 6 (1 destroyed)
                  Zinc 2
Lumgol X X X X D       Brass 1 (1 destroyed)
                  Copper 2
Elandera X X X X X X     Bronze 1
                  Electrum 3
                  Gold 1
Rathmaskal   X   X X D     Bendalloy 6 (1 destroyed)
                  Cadmium 3
Itiah   X X X         Duralumin 1
                  Nicrosil 1 (1 destroyed)
Ark1002 X X     X       Chromium 1
                  Aluminum 6 (3 destroyed)
Steeldancer X X X X            
                     
CadCom   X X D            
                     
Xinoehp X X X X            
                     
                     
Furamirionind X X X X X X        
                     
                     
                     
                     
shanerockes       X            
                     
                     
Devotary X X X X X          
                     
                     
FatherTiempo X X X X X X        
                     
Roadwalker X X X X X          
                     
Snipexe X X X X   X        
                     
ElendVenture                    
                     
Fifth Scholar X X X D            

The first thing that stands out is Drought has yet to claim any medallions. While that's not inherently elim, it is a bit odd they're the only ones to not claim.

Now on to player analysis. I link to the quotes, then add my two cents. Some of it may be a bit rambly. I apologize now.

@Droughtbringer

Spoiler

While I also agree not claiming pewter was/is a good idea, the reasoning here seems strange. Maybe elim trying to give excuse for no one claiming pewter?

Still hasn’t claimed what medallions those were, and has yet to claim any medallion. See my chart in first spoiler tag.

@Devotary of Spontaneity

Spoiler

Village impression; could be trying to feign ignorance though

Odd that she’d say nicrosil when that is exactly the medallion CadCom had. Not elim though, because I believe the nicrosil was the randomly assigned one (since only one appears to have been put into play).

Not really about Devotary, but leads me to two suspects. Two people claimed to have tin on D1: Roadwalker and Xino. It was Roadwalker’s only claim, and Xino’s 2nd medallion.

@Mailliw73/Eternum

Spoiler

Now that we know two pewters were released, I personally think it was likely given to elim to start. This could be another attempt to pull suspicion away from pewter to avoid a tin scan.

(Response by Fura)

Fura has a point. He was picking out, then ignoring that Fura is also the one who suggested claiming what we had C1 on C2. It could have honestly just been forgetful, but the post wasn’t that far back.

(Response by Fifth)

I’m getting a vibe that Fifth is mildly suspicious of Eternum here, for a lot of the same reasons I was suspicious. Could this be part of why Fifth was killed? Before Fifth pursued that line of thinking any further? He later agreed Eternum’s arguments were cherry-picking a bit of Fura’s posts

This contradicts what Devotary had just said, that tin was not likely to have been given to villagers. Possible elim attempt at distancing away from which medallions the elim team kept for themselves. It also seems odd he’d say chances point to yes for tin being with villagers, when six were distributed.

Also, like Roadwalker later, if Eternum is elim, they’d have likely known the false claimant to be village.

With six Bendalloys distributed, this could have been an attempt to cast doubt on anyone who used Bendalloy, potentially starting a mislynch. He also backed off, saying later that use of Bendalloy wasn't really indicative of alignment after revealing he had two medallions.

@Arky-boi

Spoiler

While their style is generally short, the second line sets me off a bit. The chance of having only aluminum seems a bit low IMO. Staunchly claiming only the one seems also a bit too forced. Every other person with an aluminum had two medallions. It is possible Ark was given the one random aluminum, and not given anything by elims. (A little less suspicious after seeing several people only had one medallion)

@Roadwalker

Spoiler

This post just feels… off. The first part almost gives me an impression of an elim who would know with almost 100 percent certainty that it was a villager lying about having aluminum. I wouldn’t be surprised that if Eternum/Mailliw is elim, Roadwalker is also elim.

Posted after Xino said he had used Bendalloy. Both are not likely to be elims.

Another line-up with Eternum’s thinking. Both attempting to make Bendalloy seem more elim. Also another reason Xino and Roadwalker are not likely elims together.

It seems a bit odd they’d cast suspicion without casting a vote, especially when it was the last 12 hours of the cycle and there were two (three-ish, with FatherTiempo’s uncolored vote) total votes. It’s like they wanted to gauge a possible lynch, and possibly get one going, without getting their hands dirty. They also left out the option that I was just trying to get discussion started.

@Furamirionind

Spoiler

Didn’t actually claim after saying we should all roleclaim. Did Fura only have Iron on D1?

@xinoehp512

Spoiler

The only person known on D1 to have claimed three medallions. I find this a bit odd, since I believe there’s a higher chance for the elims to have had three to start. Also, to have both tin and bendalloy seems a bit overpowered.

As you can see, not everyone is tagged. These were just posts by people that stood out to me the most. Hence, the reason for my top suspicions at the moment are:

  • Roadwalker
  • Droughtbringer
  • Mailliw/Eternum
  • Xinoehp
  • Ark

Other random thoughts I had going through posts:

Spoiler

What if elims gave themselves Pewter and Electrum (numbers line up right) to have the chance to know where the Pewter went so they could avoid destroying it and wasting a kill? (Rath just had one Electrum medallion, and was the only one to claim as much for D1. Possibly the randomly assigned.)

They probably also gave themselves some Iron to guarantee they’d get a medallion the next round.

Average of 2.39 medallions per person. If some of those who claimed only one truly only had one, I’d suspect the elims had at least 3.

Itiah made a good point about Bendalloy: They likely gave themselves some/distributed more so if one was lynched, they’d be around another turn to make actions.

Only one of the two Zincs have been claimed. Likely one given to elims on D1.

About last turn's voting:

Spoiler

(Cycle ends at 2100 PST)

1741 hrs: Devotary points out Roadwalker Bendalloy discrepancy

1752 hrs: Mailliw responds, confirms 2 Bendalloy

1806 hrs: Devotary makes comment that only one omission is odd

1816 hrs: Elandera tags Roadwalker

1909 hrs: Elandera votes on Roadwalker

1916 hrs: Roadwalker responds, explains missed both Eternum/Mailliw and Itiah

1943 hrs: Elandera removes vote on Roadwalker

2004 hrs: Steeldancer votes on Shanerockes

2014 hrs: Devotary votes on Ark

2045 hrs: Shanerockes places vote on Drought, claiming brass, tin, aluminum

2046 hrs: Elandera votes on Ark

2048 hrs: Steel removes vote from Shane, votes on Ark

 

Vote results
Ark (2) - Steel, Elandera (Devotary’s vote removed by brass, which had to be Shane)

Shanerockes (2) - Mailliw, Drought (possibly duralumin/zinc?)

Drought (1) - Shane

Itiah (1) - Fura

If anyone has tin, I'd like them to do a scan on brass, just to confirm there really is only one, which has been destroyed. Shane using brass on Devotary makes absolutely no sense. Since Roadwalker is one of my top suspicions, I'm not sure how much I trust that gold scan.

I'm also starting to believe the sudden shift toward Shane was to get rid of his medallions (brass, probably) which he claimed in the last 15 minutes. If there truly has only been one brass, that meant the elim team didn't feel it should be in the game.

Also, to hopefully get the voting going since it's been a very sad day in regards to content, I'll place my vote on Roadwalker.

EDIT: I didn't want to double post, and it's been less than 30 minutes. I had the thought, what if the gold scan is right, but a second brass just happened to go to the same person by happenstance. That wouldn't show in the gold scan, since that only shows how many were passed.

Edited by Elandera
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54 minutes ago, Elandera said:

If anyone has tin, I'd like them to do a scan on brass, just to confirm there really is only one, which has been destroyed. Shane using brass on Devotary makes absolutely no sense. Since Roadwalker is one of my top suspicions, I'm not sure how much I trust that gold scan.

I'm also starting to believe the sudden shift toward Shane was to get rid of his medallions (brass, probably) which he claimed in the last 15 minutes. If there truly has only been one brass, that meant the elim team didn't feel it should be in the game.

Hmm, as it could pertain to today's lynch, I will go and say that I do have Brass this turn, so whoever Soothed Dev almost gauranteed to be... not-Shane.

It is midnight for me, and I have to wake up early (weekends are particularly hard for me), but i will try to add something...

So, as we know there are at least 2 brass out there (likely only 2 though if gold only found 1), that means the elims added at least 1 to the game.  This makes me think the the manip to kill Shane may not have been purely to get rid of Brass, as if the elims were so concerned about Brass, why would they put an extra one out there?  Every cycle, there are only 2 1/4 chances for one of the Brass to land with the elims. Regardless, that gives less than a 50% chance for the elims to get brass. If they wanted to make sure village didnt have it, they wouldn't add more that the village would get 3/4 times.

It is possible that gold (Roadwalker?) lied about some stuff.  I havent thought enough yet about why they would do that though... actually, I doubt they lied about Brass at least, because it wouldn't make sense to imply Shane voted for themselves, which could make gold look suspicious...

Other reasons they may have done the vote manip was to kill Shane specifically... though this seems unlikely to me.  Shane seemed relatively inactive (intentionally or otherwise) and therefore likely wouldn't have provoked the elims.

Or it could have been to save Ark. I keep coming back to this in my head.  I also want to point out that obvious things like this may not always be a bad idea for the elims in this game.  For instance, if Ark held a medallion that the elims wanted to keep around, it may be worth obviously revealing Ark as an elim, and get to both use the medallion, but keep it in the game longer.

@Elandera, also, I claimed 1 Iron D1 right after a couple other people claimed.  I wanted to get the games consensus before claiming, once it seemed I had it, I did.  I only had 1 Iron.  I am on Mobile, so I cant tag the post right now, but I may be able to find time tomorrow at some point...

Ark

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7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Elandera, also, I claimed 1 Iron D1 right after a couple other people claimed.  I wanted to get the games consensus before claiming, once it seemed I had it, I did.  I only had 1 Iron.  I am on Mobile, so I cant tag the post right now, but I may be able to find time tomorrow at some point

I knew you had claimed one iron previously, but I wanted to make sure that was all you had. There are a lot of medallions unaccounted for in the claiming.

That's interesting what you say about brass. It does make me think that if Roadwalker was not lying, he was either mistaken or the brass just didn't move. That would explain why it wasn't included in the gold scan. 

Also, if that's the case, it does make the case less likely for Shane to have been targeted by vote manipulation for the purpose of killing him specifically for his medallions, and more likely that it was an attempt to save Ark. Another brass out there also means Shane was not likely the one to use his medallion.

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@Furamirionind If you have a Brass, Roadwalker must’ve been lying, correct? Because his scan came before Shane died with a brass. And he said there was only one. I’m confused by how the “brass wouldn’t move” though, like Elandera said. 

For the sake of transparency, I had a Pewter medallion for C3 as well as that Tin one. @Droughtbringer How come you haven’t shared any of your medallions? It can’t hurt to share the first few cycles’ now. I don’t see what the point is in not sharing. 

I’m also going to stick with Roadwalker for now. The scan feels off to me as well. 

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I am apparently not very good at this. I've made a pretty bad mistake. The PMs of @Furamirionind @Devotary of Spontaneity @I think I am here. and @Steeldancer have been updated.

On the topic of changing rollover, that's probably a good idea. Rollover is now 7 AM MST, since I've been on at least reasonably consistently at that time. Plus, it means that this Day lasts the whole 48 hours. Hope this doesn't mess up anything for anyone.

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