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Kidpen

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36 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Either could realistically work. posting now puts a target on the person's head, unless they come out with the results of their scan. Once they do that, the target is removed.
I actually think claiming now would be good as there seems to be multiple tin out this game, and if the elims were really concerned about gold, they could have killed them by now.
The downside of course, is if the elims do want gold out of the game, it puts a target on their head unless they claim. (As once they do, gold becomes useless.)

I assume a contribution crusade has to do with lynching those not contributing?

I was concerned as I couldn’t recall if Gold was a night or day action but I just checked and it’s a day action, so @Roadwalker, what were the results of your gold scan? 

Yeah, it was started up by Hero(?) I believe a few years ago to counter inactivity and that’s what began voting for inactives. 

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31 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Shane did have brass, and was on after Devotary voted. It seems likely to me that Shane soothes Devotarie's vote in an effort to save themselves...

I voted for Ark, so soothing my vote helped kill shane. Since we had a sooth and a riot that conspired to save Ark and kill shane, I'm far more convinced that Ark is in fact evil. The only player around in time to see my vote who didn't then vote for Ark is Maill, so he's a reasonably likely candidate to be a partner. @Kidpen, can you use a zinc medallion to shift your own vote?

Since gold is largely useless after it's used once, I feel it might be a good idea for the player with gold this cycle to just claim now and give us the complete list of medallions. Upon reflection, I don't believe the gold owner will necessarily be a target if they've already said everything they know.

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21 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I voted for Ark, so soothing my vote helped kill shane. Since we had a sooth and a riot that conspired to save Ark and kill shane, I'm far more convinced that Ark is in fact evil. The only player around in time to see my vote who didn't then vote for Ark is Maill, so he's a reasonably likely candidate to be a partner. @Kidpen, can you use a zinc medallion to shift your own vote?

Since gold is largely useless after it's used once, I feel it might be a good idea for the player with gold this cycle to just claim now and give us the complete list of medallions. Upon reflection, I don't believe the gold owner will necessarily be a target if they've already said everything they know.

That’s a good question for Kidpen, but since I was around, I could’ve just voted myself. I also know Fura was around at the same time I was. 

I’ve already tagged and revealed Roadwalker as the only Gold holder. 

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2 hours ago, Mailliw73 said:

Steel is my number one suspicion from D1. The vote to save Fura seems really off to me.

That's great that you're suspicious of me for doing this.... but when did this happen? I have absolutely no memory of voting to save Fura. 
Edit: Huh. That is weird. I vaguely remembered voting to solidify a lynch, but apparently I created a tie, which I have no idea why I did that. I blame it on being brain dead from homework. 
Also, I'm sad that Shane was the one who got lynched, because he had just popped up and wasn't totally inactive. *sigh*

Edited by Steeldancer
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2 hours ago, Elandera said:

So unless someone just didn't want Devotary to vote, they had been on late in the cycle enough to catch that last minute shift if votes to Ark.

Oh.

Sorry about being inactive, I've been trying, and failing. At least I did okay last time...

So, apparently I was being voted on. I'm not an elim, I've just forgotten to actually do anything a lot.

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So best odds right now, we’re at 9 villagers, 4 Elims. We definitely need to start widening that gap again. I’m still behind on D2, but something is off between Elandera, Devotary, and Fura. I’d be very shocked if none of the above was an elim. My current top suspicions would be Steel, Fura, Roadwalker, and Devo or Ark. 

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20 minutes ago, Arky-boi said:

Oh.

Sorry about being inactive, I've been trying, and failing. At least I did okay last time...

So, apparently I was being voted on. I'm not an elim, I've just forgotten to actually do anything a lot.

I get the being forgetful thing. As I noted last night, I infamously let myself die because I forgot to submit an action required to keep me alive (an interesting pewter mechanic in a previous game).

The problem is figuring out why so much vote manipulation went in to apparently saving you.

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@Arky-boi If you personally used any vote manipulation to help save yourself last cycle, I suppose you can claim during the day, but you should claim ASAP.

Maill, forgive me, but your list of suspicions contains almost every single active player... So I am going to take it with a grain of salt.

4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Have we considered that the vote manipulation may not have been to save Ark? Two of the 3 votes placed on him were done in the last hour of the game and it seems more likely that someone was trying to save Drought or another option up for the lynch. 

Well, the Riot could have been an effort to save Drought, Ark, or Itiah.  However as there has been no vote manip until now, it is a bit suspicious that a riot would help Ark the same turn a Soothe did as well.  The Soothe was definitely to save Ark, as either Elandera and Devotary already addressed.

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2 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

@Arky-boi If you personally used any vote manipulation to help save yourself last cycle, I suppose you can claim during the day, but you should claim ASAP.

Maill, forgive me, but your list of suspicions contains almost every single active player... So I am going to take it with a grain of salt.

Well, the Riot could have been an effort to save Drought, Ark, or Itiah.  However as there has been no vote manip until now, it is a bit suspicious that a riot would help Ark the same turn a Soothe did as well.  The Soothe was definitely to save Ark, as either Elandera and Devotary already addressed.

Five players of 13 is all we have active? 

My other thought was that Roadwalker could’ve used Brass (or someone wanting to protect him)since Devotary seemed to be headed towards voting for him and since you only have a medallion for a cycle anyways, there’s more reason to use it. 

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I wouldn't really count myself as being overly active... I feel useless right now. Mailliw has made more analysis than I have at this point, and he's only been around a turn or so.
In my experience, trying to figure out vote manipulation tends to lead in circles, but Devotary does have a good point about the brass. Which is odd, why didn't shane use his own brass? Granted, it might be the same reason I forgot to use my chromium last cycle to try and learn SOMETHING. 
Honestly, unless I get my act together and actually stop moping about being inactive and start analyzing, I really wouldn't mind being lynched. It might actually give some information, maybe, versus how little I've done to be helpful at this point. I'm going to make a hopeful promise- that next day, I'm going to make an attempt to do some serious analysis and look through all the posts to try and figure something out. I'll try to do this before my game starts running on Sunday. It'll be time consuming, but I want you guys to hold me to this. If I'm going to remain in this game and not be replaced, I should at least contribute something. 

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Looking back at D3, Drought didn't vote for shane either, which means two players were rioted onto shane. That's quite suspicious, and also rather odd. The double riot is certainly indicative of elim collusion, but why wouldn't they have targeted Itiah or Droughtbringer, who actually had votes? I suppose it could have been attempting to take advantage of Steel's temporary vote, but one of the previous two still would have made more sense. FatherTiempo's vote for Droughtbringer also disappeared. @Kidpen, can you confirm whether FatherTiempo was soothed and Droughtbringer was rioted?

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12 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Looking back at D3, Drought didn't vote for shane either, which means two players were rioted onto shane. That's quite suspicious, and also rather odd. The double riot is certainly indicative of elim collusion, but why wouldn't they have targeted Itiah or Droughtbringer, who actually had votes? I suppose it could have been attempting to take advantage of Steel's temporary vote, but one of the previous two still would have made more sense. FatherTiempo's vote for Droughtbringer also disappeared. @Kidpen, can you confirm whether FatherTiempo was soothed and Droughtbringer was rioted?

Wait so did someone get soothed off of Shane too then?

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4 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Wait so did someone get soothed off of Shane too then?

No, Steel shifted his vote from shane to Ark near the end of the cycle. The three vote manipulations were my vote being soothed, and your and Drought's votes both being rioted onto shane.

The possible explanations I can think of are:

Ark is evil, and the elim double riot that saved him didn't realize that Steel changed his vote. This doesn't address where the soothe came from, if this was also elim it would have required two evil players on in the last hour or someone with duralumin+zinc+brass could have double-soothed. If Maill was evil with this collection of medallions, and logged off before realizing that Elandera and Steel followed my vote, this would sort of make sense.

Ark, Itiah, Droughtbringer, and someone active in the last hour are evil. The double riot might have been arranged earlier in the day or in response to Steel's original vote, and the soothe was designed to protect Ark.

Ark is village, and the elims decided to have some fun and randomly double rioted onto shane to frame Ark. This still suggests two elims or a duralumin+zinc combination. Again, where did the soothe come from? Why would I have been targeted before voting? No villager had much of an incentive to soothe my vote; someone wanting to protect Roadwalker would almost certainly have soothed Elandera. Why wouldn't a duralumin+zinc+brass elim have double-soothed?

Most other explanations are combinations of the three above.

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3 hours ago, Elandera said:

I get the being forgetful thing. As I noted last night, I infamously let myself die because I forgot to submit an action required to keep me alive (an interesting pewter mechanic in a previous game).

The problem is figuring out why so much vote manipulation went in to apparently saving you.

I don't know. 

I haven't used a single medallion so far.

I have a chromium medallion, but I don't know who to use it on.

Edited by Arky-boi
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Hello, I’m going to try and be more active, because we have more active people dying.

I can somewhat understand what happened in the lynch, where Shane was double rioted, either to save Ark or frame him, or to save some other people.

How many Zincminds are there? Because I have a Zincmind, but I didn’t use it for the Day voting. Would that mean there was Duralumin involved?

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16 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

How many Zincminds are there?

We'll find out when Roadwalker posts the list of medallions. He can't copy/paste from his PM, but he's allowed to fill in the following list with the number of each type of medallion:

Steel: 
Iron: 
Pewter: 
Tin: 
Zinc: 
Brass: 
Copper: 
Bronze: 
Electrum: 
Gold: 1
Bendalloy: 
Cadmium: 
Duralumin: 
Nicrosil: 
Chromium: 
Aluminum: 6

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32 minutes ago, I think I am here. said:

Hello, I’m going to try and be more active, because we have more active people dying.

I can somewhat understand what happened in the lynch, where Shane was double rioted, either to save Ark or frame him, or to save some other people.

How many Zincminds are there? Because I have a Zincmind, but I didn’t use it for the Day voting. Would that mean there was Duralumin involved?

I had a Zinc last cycle. As far as I've been able to track, there's only one. However, if you didn't use yours, there are at least 3, if my math is right.

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