Mid-Range Game 33: Danger in the Terris Peaks

[Elandera]

"Based on Duilin's hypothesis, there are either two traitors left, or only one," Declan, the Detailed said as he wrote numbers down on a paper. "The odds are not in our favor for finding Fourth Letir's comrades simply by luck."

Declan, though, was starting to doubt the odds himself. It was not a statistical impossibility that they'd found a traitor so quickly, but it was a statistical improbability. What other improbable things would happen before they guided Alendi safely to his goal?

He was slowly realizing there were other forces working in the world that did not care for the goals or desires of humanity. It wanted something, but what?

Shaking his head, Declan put the thoughts out of his mind. If there was some greater force at work, it was not the biggest threat to the party at the moment. He turned back to his calculations, trying to find hard evidence that would lead them to routing out those who were proving to be willing to do anything to halt Alendi's progress.

----

I've realized choosing an RP based on a mathematically detailed person is a bit difficult for myself. I apologize now if anything there is statistically incorrect in any of my RPs.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Wow. I was at a track meet myself, but I expected a little more activity than this. Especially since we got an Eliminator. I guess ten living players doesn’t leave much to be said.

Sorry about that. I haven't had the time until now to sit and actually compose something worthwhile.

I'm curious Fifth about your statements last cycle. I read one where you said 3/13 possibility of being hostile, and later likely 2-man elim team. I take it the 3 includes the Deepness? (As I typed out the question, I realized how dumb it sounds. Of course the Deepness is hostile, it wants everyone dead.) If that's correct, it's likely there's only one elim left. That feels a bit low to me, but all the games I've played usually have 15+ players.

Only two deaths, while not great, is somewhat telling. With the potential for three kill roles (assuming one Defender role based on player count), at least one is showing restraint or is less active. Since everyone at least posted last cycle, I'm thinking the first option. I also would not doubt if either the Deepness or Defender was left out in order to help keep the game from ending in just a few cycles.

[Sparkrunner]

Elandera. Oh wait, I forgot. Elandera.

@Elandera, who told you that Drought was not responding to PM's? I will remove my vote when you tell us. If the person who told Elandera that Drought was responding steps forwards, I will remove my vote.

Edit:

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Unless Fifth is a Pewter Dark Terris Magicker who cancelled their vote, it appears we have a village debonair who killed Ca*Com. The fact that presumably no votes were moved off of Ca*Com decreases the chance of an elim debonair, though it's still a possibility.

Cadcom was lynched. Says so in the writeup.

Edited February 10, 2019 by Roadwalker

[Elandera]

Just now, Roadwalker said:

Elandera. Oh wait, I forgot. Elandera.

@Elandera, who told you that Drought was not responding to PM's? I will remove my vote when you tell us. If the person who told Elandera that Drought was responding steps forwards, I will remove my vote.

 

Oh! I knew I forgot something. It was @shanerockes.

[Sparkrunner]

Elandera. Thanks, though I would like confirmation from @shanerockes or any Tins that are out there.

 

Edit: I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the Crusade. Opinions on lynching the semi/inactives?

Edited February 10, 2019 by Roadwalker

[Snipexe]

8 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Elandera. Thanks, though I would like confirmation from @shanerockes or any Tins that are out there.

 

Edit: I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the Crusade. Opinions on lynching the semi/inactives?

I mean I’m probably a good option at this point, as I have been inactive. Apologies for that, I misunderstood the rollerover time, and thought I had an extra day to post. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

18 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Cadcom was lynched. Says so in the writeup.

Debonair is the role that can move votes, and the tags indicate that vote manipulation was involved in Ca*Com's death.

[Sparkrunner]

@Snipexe, what is "Rhtatchylth?"

Devotary: Right, sorry. 

Edited February 10, 2019 by Roadwalker

[Snipexe]

8 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

@Snipexe, what is "Rhtatchylth?"

Devotary: Right, sorry. 

Did you translate it? It’s just a random series of letters trying to sound like an elder God.

[Sparkrunner]

Yeah. N+17, right? And finally, another cryptology geek! Are there more of us that you have encountered? 

Lv fyrjpu grgqppn fgqdg q pzggpv xdrja. (S=B, key is CIPHER)

[shanerockes]

I will confirm that it was I who told Elandra that Drought wasn't responding to PM's. Sorry I haven't said much but it has been a busy day for me. 

[Sparkrunner]

That's alright. Both Elandera and Shane being eliminators seems somewhat unlikely.

[Snipexe]

13 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Yeah. N+17, right? And finally, another cryptology geek! Are there more of us that you have encountered? 

Lv fyrjpu grgqppn fgqdg q pzggpv xdrja. (S=B, key is CIPHER)

You my friend clearly need to be introduced to 

If you like my sig, you’ll love this.

[Fifth Scholar]

Alright, got a bit distracted but I’m back. So, first, results. 

18 hours ago, Young Bard said:

Xinoehp has died. They were a roleless Alendi Loyalist.
Droughtbringer has died. They were a Desperate Packman Alendi Loyalist.
CadCom was lynched! They were a Bronze Feruchemist and a Desperate Packman, and a member of Kwaan's Lackeys.

Xino and Drought had said very little. This means that the Eliminators and the Deepness both went for information-deprivation kills, or wanted to foster a more active thread. 

CadCom is an entirely different case. I had a PM with him before his death, in which I asked him for opinions on Roadwalker and Elandera. He expressed suspicion of both, though he hedged a little bit more on Elandera than Roadwalker, who he condemned fairly strongly. (Though “hedging” in this case was limited to him expressing the opinion that Elandera was always lynched early and should be spared.)

7 hours ago, Roadwalker said:

Well, bard just threw all of our role analysis out the window, eh? @Fifth Scholar, what are your thoughts on having multiple roles?

You were correct in saying that Bronze feruchemy was likely an eliminator role, though I don't necessarily agree with your reasoning. @Young Bard, does voting count as an action? I kind of doubt that it does, but that could alter the game significantly if it does.

Yeah, my role analysis was somewhat nulled, but not entirely so. And it seems I was correct about Bronze being an elim role, though for all the wrong reasons, it seems. 

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Unless Fifth is a Pewter Dark Terris Magicker who cancelled their vote, it appears we have a village debonair who killed Ca*Com. The fact that presumably no votes were moved off of Ca*Com decreases the chance of an elim debonair, though it's still a possibility.

I’m not confirming or denying anything about my role, but this analysis would be correct; an elim Debonair does seem unlikely by now, true, though it’s possible they weren’t on in time, or expected a tied lynch. 

1 hour ago, Snipexe said:

Indoor or outdoor?

Outdoor, quite unfortunately. Even Georgia is cold at this point, though 40 degrees Fahrenheit and windy probably seems positively balmy to some of you Northerners  

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

I'm curious Fifth about your statements last cycle. I read one where you said 3/13 possibility of being hostile, and later likely 2-man elim team. I take it the 3 includes the Deepness? (As I typed out the question, I realized how dumb it sounds. Of course the Deepness is hostile, it wants everyone dead.) If that's correct, it's likely there's only one elim left. That feels a bit low to me, but all the games I've played usually have 15+ players.

There could be three Elims, though that seems like an absurd number of hostiles with two kill roles that will probably hit villagers every turn, and there being at most nine villagers in this hypothetical. We would have to be quite literally perfect with our lynches, I think. 

54 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

Edit: I've always had a soft spot in my heart for the Crusade. Opinions on lynching the semi/inactives?

A Crusade lynch can be fine sometimes, but we really can’t afford one with such a small player count. I’d like to not halt analysis or discussion in favour of lynching a mere inactive, of which it seems there are very few. Hopefully I’ll look at CadCom’s posts from yesterday and then place a vote, but my current suspects are Devotary, Roadwalker, and Snipexe, all for very different reasons. I’ll have to look at Elandera again to see where I stand on her in light of yesterday’s events. 

[Sparkrunner]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

A Crusade lynch can be fine sometimes, but we really can’t afford one with such a small player count. I’d like to not halt analysis or discussion in favour of lynching a mere inactive, of which it seems there are very few. Hopefully I’ll look at CadCom’s posts from yesterday and then place a vote, but my current suspects are Devotary, Roadwalker, and Snipexe, all for very different reasons. I’ll have to look at Elandera again to see where I stand on her in light of yesterday’s events. 

If you don't convince me, and another vote doesn't pop up, I'll go for a semi/inactive. What are your reasons for going after Snipexe? So far I haven't really been able to get a read.

[Fifth Scholar]

7 minutes ago, Roadwalker said:

If you don't convince me, and another vote doesn't pop up, I'll go for a semi/inactive. What are your reasons for going after Snipexe? So far I haven't really been able to get a read.

My initial perception of last cycle’s lynch is that Road and Elandera are certainly not Elims together, and that Elandera is likely a villager barring one specific situation having had occurred, which I’ll lay out here: 

-CadCom realises he or elim!Elandera will likely be lynched. 

-Instead of placing his vote on the leading candidate, Elandera, he puts it on a third party, Roadwalker, to avoid one of their team dying. 

-Elandera can’t vote for Roadwalker after having said that she thought his death on the first cycle back would be unfair. Instead, she votes on CadCom minutes from rollover, putting both at two votes and ensuring that neither will be lynched. CadCom sends a last-second PM to me, distancing from Elandera while heavily implying I should switch to Roadwalker, not Elandera, the current lynch candidate. 

I...actually could see this. But there’s also the elim!Road scenario, in which CadCom tries last second distancing and helpful!village!Elandera seals the vote. But that still doesn’t explain why CadCom voted on Road and not Elandera, who would have died and prolonged his life by at least a cycle. 

As for Devotary, I’m seeing her as more of a potential Deepness than an Eliminator, but she’s utilising her favourite Eliminator strategy of waiting to vote until the closing hours of a turn, and seems more focused on mechanics than analysis. That said, I have far less suspicion of her than either Road or Elandera. 

Finally, Snip’s last set of posts just set my elim alarms ringing for whatever reason. I wouldn’t vote on him, but I’m definitely keeping a closer eye on him  

For now, Elandera. 

[Elandera]

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

My initial perception of last cycle’s lynch is that Road and Elandera are certainly not Elims together, and that Elandera is likely a villager barring one specific situation having had occurred, which I’ll lay out here: 

-CadCom realises he or elim!Elandera will likely be lynched. 

-Instead of placing his vote on the leading candidate, Elandera, he puts it on a third party, Roadwalker, to avoid one of their team dying. 

-Elandera can’t vote for Roadwalker after having said that she thought his death on the first cycle back would be unfair. Instead, she votes on CadCom minutes from rollover, putting both at two votes and ensuring that neither will be lynched. CadCom sends a last-second PM to me, distancing from Elandera while heavily implying I should switch to Roadwalker, not Elandera, the current lynch candidate. 

I...actually could see this. But there’s also the elim!Road scenario, in which CadCom tries last second distancing and helpful!village!Elandera seals the vote. But that still doesn’t explain why CadCom voted on Road and not Elandera, who would have died and prolonged his life by at least a cycle. 

As for Devotary, I’m seeing her as more of a potential Deepness than an Eliminator, but she’s utilising her favourite Eliminator strategy of waiting to vote until the closing hours of a turn, and seems more focused on mechanics than analysis. That said, I have far less suspicion of her than either Road or Elandera. 

Finally, Snip’s last set of posts just set my elim alarms ringing for whatever reason. I wouldn’t vote on him, but I’m definitely keeping a closer eye on him  

For now, Elandera. 

I... have no response to this. That actually makes a lot of sense. I sat there a while after seeing CadCom's vote wondering why he wouldn't just vote on me.

[Sparkrunner]

@Fifth Scholar, keep in mind the tone of Cadmium's last post. For reference: 

"I know we've left the [Roadwalker] lynch, but hear me out. From the info I've gotten, roadwalker previously was a player with experience, so they know how to stop a lynch against themselves. Now what better excuse than something along the lines of 'you won't kill a recently returning player on their first cycle back.' It just isn't sitting well with me. "

 

I'd say a wee bit desperate, grabbing at straws, because I mentioned that it was my first cycle back, but in no way, shape, or form did state that as a reason not to lynch me. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

-Instead of placing his vote on the leading candidate, Elandera, he puts it on a third party, Roadwalker, to avoid one of their team dying. 

-Elandera can’t vote for Roadwalker after having said that she thought his death on the first cycle back would be unfair. Instead, she votes on CadCom minutes from rollover, putting both at two votes and ensuring that neither will be lynched.

At the time Ca*Com voted for Roadwalker, there was no particular reason for Ca*Com to believe he was being lynched, as even a self-preservation vote would only tie the lynch. This means that failing to vote for Elandera is less indicative of them being evil teammates than if the lynch were already tied. Elandera had previously expressed reservations about lynching Ca*Com as well as Roadwalker, so she might have been able to justify a vote for Roadwalker in self-preservation, especially as the expected outcome of such a vote would not result in Roadwalker dying. Despite this, an elim team who voted for each other believing that the vote would be tied does make a certain amount of sense. If we knew why the debonair saved Elandera/killed CadCom this could be cleared up, but I don't believe it's worthwhile for the debonair to claim at this time.

Since Bronze + Desperate Packman is likely one of the stronger elim roles, I'm not particularly seeing elim!Roadwalker deciding to start a lynch on a teammate and then leaving that vote there all cycle with so few votes cast. I would give Roadwalker a less than proportional chance of being an elim.

[Fifth Scholar]

3 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

At the time Ca*Com voted for Roadwalker, there was no particular reason for Ca*Com to believe he was being lynched, as even a self-preservation vote would only tie the lynch. This means that failing to vote for Elandera is less indicative of them being evil teammates than if the lynch were already tied. Elandera had previously expressed reservations about lynching Ca*Com as well as Roadwalker, so she might have been able to justify a vote for Roadwalker in self-preservation, especially as the expected outcome of such a vote would not result in Roadwalker dying. Despite this, an elim team who voted for each other believing that the vote would be tied does make a certain amount of sense. If we knew why the debonair saved Elandera/killed CadCom this could be cleared up, but I don't believe it's worthwhile for the debonair to claim at this time.

This isn’t the case; a vote for Elandera would have given him a 3-1 lead in the votes, and assuming no vote manipulation would have secured Elandera’s lynch. Instead, he voted off-wagon an hour before the cycle’s closing, leaving his fate in the village’s hands, which no Eliminator consciously aims to do. If village!Elandera was up for the lynch, CadCom could have easily secured her death, ensured that his own life would be saved, and mainly avoided suspicion (Elandera was still a pretty popular lynch candidate) in one fell swoop. Instead, he votes completely off-wagon on Roadwalker, an already unpopular target, leaving Elandera only one vote in the lead. Wonder how she could create a tie? By voting! Again, CadCom would have seen a village!Elandera lurking, by Elandera’s own admission in a PM she sent me, and would presumably take into account that she might vote on him in self-preservation; in this scenario, again, CadCom’s best bet is to widen the gap between himself and the next lynch candidate. Unless he was completely oblivious to the fact that I’d switched my vote from Road to Elandera, he has no reason not to vote on village!Elandera here, and the fact that he didn’t raises enormous red flags. 

I’ll admit that Elandera’s actions are less clear-cut, but if she’s going to save herself by creating a tie, elim!Elandera is better off distancing from CadCom than casting herself under a lot of suspicion by pushing a last-second candidate like Roadwalker; that would have smelled a lot like a hammer. (Because it would have been.) Creating the tie with CadCom distances the two, saves both of their lives and wastes a lynch. Consider how the lynch last cycle would have looked without vote manipulation; no death=no information, Elandera might have come under fire for tying up the lynch but could easily claim self-defence, CadCom wouldn’t look very evil at all, and the distancing between the two would have worked. I do acknowledge that village!Elandera also has ample reason to vote for CadCom, which gives me some pause, but ultimately it’s CadCom’s actions that speak the loudest here. The final piece of evidence is the PM CadCom sent me, which (though I was asleep) urged me to vote for Roadwalker over Elandera, while still managing to condemn both. 

[Elandera]

I'm baffled by CadCom's vote, because if I'd been in his position, I'd have voted on me. As I said in my PM to Fifth, I was working on a post when CadCom sent in his vote on Road. I was super confused. It was such a strange move.

The best explanation I can come up with is he was hoping to give me a different target to vote on, removing himself from the top two options. Especially with the possibility of so much vote manipulation.

But I really don't know. It makes no sense to me.

For now, I'll place a poke vote on @Walin, who hasn't posted yet this turn. Walin

[Fifth Scholar]

I’ve not said anything recently because I believe I’ve made out my case, but the majority of people haven’t voted yet. As such, with my apologies: @Ark1002,@I think I am here., @Devotary of Spontaneity, @Walin, @Roadwalker, @Shqueeves, @Snipexe, @shanerockes, your commentary on recent developments, and an updated vote, would be appreciated. 

[Snipexe]

Well, the issue is that I don’t really have a ton of thoughts. The issue with lynching an eliminator D1 is that it doesn’t give as much information as a lynch later in the game. We have the obvious speculation that Ela and/or Road are elims, both of which have valid points. For now I am going to put a vote on Elandera as I think some of the points that Fifth has pointed out are excellent.

[Young Bard]

There's 6 hours left in the day! Get your actions and votes in!

Unfortunately, I might be an hour or two late for figuring out rollover today, but the Cycle will still end at the regular time.

[Sparkrunner]

I'll write up a analysis of the case against me and against Elandera, who seem to be the lynch candidates, and edit it into this post later.

@Elandera:

1. Signup
2. RP
3. Cadcom says that it's better not to lynch first cycle to have more players, but then says he will vote. Says he will vote, possibly for me, but not on my first cycle back. Elandera asks what happens in a tie, then agrees with Cadcom on all points, including not voting for me because it is my first time back. Says that they want the game to last longer why, so the elims can whittle down the village? Or so the deepness can do the same? This statement really makes no sense, considering the LG is also starting soon, and says a no-lynch is a bad thing in the long run.
4. Says earlier post was hurried, says voting is important, says they can't decide who to vote on, says their two candidates were new-ish or returning, says "I still don't know who to vote on, even as it comes to saving my own life." Says they are opposed to my lynch and Cadcoms, so votes on Drought because Drought isn't responding to PM's, which Fifth says would possibly make them an elim tin feruchemist.
5. **Posted right before cycle closes** Cadcom makes his post where he votes on me, Elandera refutes his reasoning, then votes on Cadcom "in the interest of self preservation."
6. Says there is likely one elim and the deepness left. Says that two kills, with three kill roles, means one kill role is less active or showing restraint. Says hostiles likely showing restraint. Says Deepness or Defender could have been left out of the game.

At this point, I vote on Elandera because I suspect that she learned that Drought was not responding to PM's from an eliminator doc, but then she said she was told by shanerockes, who confirmed.

 

In ^^ This post, Fifth lays out a scenario that sounds reasonably plausible. I'll hop on the bandwagon, I guess. Fifth's analysis seems reasonably plausible, and a few iffy posts from Elandera push me over the edge to vote.

Edited February 11, 2019 by Roadwalker

[+Ark1002]

On 2/9/2019 at 0:10 AM, Young Bard said:

CadCom was lynched! They were a Bronze Feruchemist and a Desperate Packman, and a member of Kwaan's Lackeys.

Wow. I've never seen a elim lynched first turn.

I'm going to hesitantly go Elandra, then come back when I have more information.