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6 minutes ago, Quartz Zebra said:

It was just that you and Iguana had PMed the same person, messing up plans. 

Oh, well I don’t know for sure whether Saffron PMd the same person, but I think it’s true. And I don’t know whether messing up plans is true, because it didn’t mess up any of mine.

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5 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Kelsier. Think about it. He's a worldhopper, and he's been known to have stolen a Shard before that he shouldn't have been able to take. It makes more thematic sense than Hoid being able to steal shards.

And Kelsier wouldn't be opposed to killing people for his goals.

What if Axolotl is Kelsier?

From what I've heard, most of the reason for lynching Axolotl isn't just because he might be Hoid, but because there's a good possibility Axolotl stole Odium. Any role that allows someone to steal a Shard is threatening to any faction, whether that role is Hoid, Kelsier, or something else entirely. That's the reason for my vote, at least.

Personally, the idea of having a Kelsier role is this game is frightening. As Albatross pointed out, canonically Kelsier has stolen a Shard before, and he would be 100 percent able to kill people along the way. Unlike Hoid, who for some reason we don't know, can't hurt anyone.

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I'm really having a problem with the Axolotl lynch. Maybe I've missed something, but all I'm seeing is "someone apparently stole Odium, and axolotl once was able to take two actions, so maybe he stole odium, and is therefore hoid." It just seems like a slippery slope, which I just don't agree with. 

I think it's more likely that whoever stole Odium, or whoever knows what happened to it is trying to keep the lynch pushed on axolotl, as evidence seems to be stacked up against him(though it just seems to be rumors), while also remaining somewhat below the radar. I'm going to look through the posts again this cycle to see who I might suspect more than axolotl. 

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17 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

I'm really having a problem with the Axolotl lynch. Maybe I've missed something, but all I'm seeing is "someone apparently stole Odium, and axolotl once was able to take two actions, so maybe he stole odium, and is therefore hoid." It just seems like a slippery slope, which I just don't agree with. 

There's a bit more to it than that. During D2 he had fairly accurate seeming* information about the movement of the various shards, which was odd, to put it mildly. I'd be very curious to hear from the members of Odiums former faction why exactly they think it was axolotl though.

*I know he was right about at least one of the shards not leaving silverlight, for example.

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I would love to share my theory, but I get nervous about disseminating information too broadly. Suffice it to say there is in-text evidence of others who would be far better candidates for shard stealers than Hoid. I actually still think Axolotl is Hoid, but now I find myself doubting that Hoid was responsible for the loss of Odium, therefore I have no beef with him. 
If you really want to know my theory, PM me and I'd be more inclined to tell you. 

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9 hours ago, Chartreuse Penguin said:

... you think I'm the evil force? I literally just got returned, I have no roles other than being returned. Any roles I otherwise had were revealed. I have no hidden motives. 
That being said, I just came to a realization, and have realized that there is a far better candidate than Hoid for who took Odium. As such, I'll be taking my vote off of you. Axolotl. 
You who took odium. I'm on to you. I know what you are, and I think I have you pegged for what you want. It will only be a matter of time before I figure out who you are. If you decide to contact me or my faction, we could perhaps come to an arrangement, as I suspect we could work to each other's benefit. But if you choose not to, I'll hunt you until my divine breath gives out. 

Sorry, let me clarify. I was just postulating a question to consider. Yes you have just been returned. That in no way negates your faction’s plans and motives. The you in that statement was meant to refer to your faction as a whole and isn’t something I believe but something I wanted to consider. I don’t want to offend you, but being Returned isn’t going to work as an excuse any longer. 

Thank you for removing your vote. You can still think I’m Hoid if you wish. I’m about finished debating the point. 

2 hours ago, Pearl Chameleon said:

And Kelsier wouldn't be opposed to killing people for his goals.

What if Axolotl is Kelsier?

From what I've heard, most of the reason for lynching Axolotl isn't just because he might be Hoid, but because there's a good possibility Axolotl stole Odium. Any role that allows someone to steal a Shard is threatening to any faction, whether that role is Hoid, Kelsier, or something else entirely. That's the reason for my vote, at least.

Personally, the idea of having a Kelsier role is this game is frightening. As Albatross pointed out, canonically Kelsier has stolen a Shard before, and he would be 100 percent able to kill people along the way. Unlike Hoid, who for some reason we don't know, can't hurt anyone.

Um no? The lynch on me was that people thought I was Hoid and thought that Hoid might have the power to steal shards, not the other way around. I’m definitely not Kelsier either. 

1 hour ago, Magenta Albatross said:

There's a bit more to it than that. During D2 he had fairly accurate seeming* information about the movement of the various shards, which was odd, to put it mildly. I'd be very curious to hear from the members of Odiums former faction why exactly they think it was axolotl though.

*I know he was right about at least one of the shards not leaving silverlight, for example.

Well, concerning that, we already proved that I made some logical information leaps and assumptions that ended up being based less in fact than I originally thought, thus negating my statements. If I was right, it was almost entirely luck then. Since then I’ve reread the rules multiples of times and no longer think I know where any Shards are. 

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So no hard evidence, but quartz zebra's posts just feel like they're trying to push the lynch on axolotl without drawing attention to themselves. Not much more than a gut feeling, but it feels like they're trying to make a scapegoat out of axolotl, just because they are quite possibly hoid

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1 hour ago, Violet Axolotl said:

Well, concerning that, we already proved that I made some logical information leaps and assumptions that ended up being based less in fact than I originally thought, thus negating my statements. If I was right, it was almost entirely luck then. Since then I’ve reread the rules multiples of times and no longer think I know where any Shards are. 

Sorry, I must've missed that. Can you refer back to where you clarified that? I only remember you hinting that you where very certain, and that it wasn't just analysis back during that day, but I might have missed something else later.

Edited by Magenta Albatross
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11 minutes ago, Cream Tuatara said:

So no hard evidence, but quartz zebra's posts just feel like they're trying to push the lynch on axolotl without drawing attention to themselves. Not much more than a gut feeling, but it feels like they're trying to make a scapegoat out of axolotl, just because they are quite possibly hoid

Interesting. I’ve mentioned Hoid a total of once, I believe, and it was mostly a joke saying that Seonid would be Hoid based on the initial RP of Sheon Idris taking on Hoid’s mantle. Other than that, I haven’t mentioned him this cycle, nor Axolotl, so I really don’t get how you think I’m trying to passively-aggressively push a lynch on them. It’s true I’m uncertain on Axolotl, and am vaguely nervous because I don’t know their secrets, but unless there’s compelling evidence that they actually stole Odium and are pursuing other Shards, I see no reason to kill them yet. The Beagle lynch is simply a desire to have the game be more active, and as there’s a limited number of pinch-hitters, and also a limited number of justifiable lynches, I thought he might be a good choice to eliminate if we had no better options.

The only other time I voted for Axolotl was yesterday, and if you look at that post you’ll see I did it just for information, and I retracted upon some being provided. And at that point Axolotl has just claimed and we knew a lot less about them. So yeah. I’m not entirely sure where you’re getting that impression. 

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Vote Count:
Indigo Weasel (1): Onyx Flamingo
Violet Axolotl (4): Indigo Weasel, Saffron Iguana, Pearl Chameleon, Mint Heron
Saffron Iguana (2): Violet Axolotl, Charcoal Hyena
Oxblood Beagle (1): Quartz Zebra
Quartz Zebra (1): Cream Tuatara

NoReh listened closely to the conversation. The evidence against Violet Axolotl, was mixed, but still concerning. For starters, Odium had gone missing. While that was obviously concerning, there was no evidence Violet was the one who had taken the Shard. In fact, the Hidden Garden could still have the Shard and just be lying about it getting stolen. The other points were more interesting. Namely, Axolotl had been spotted taking more than one action. That could imply several things, but boiled down to having some type of power. Furthermore, they had accurately ascertained where Shards had been located. Overall, it was worrying, but not a solid case that Violet had a secret role. Still, it was better to be safe rather than sorry.

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I leave town for a cycle and everything happens.  O.o

I personally feel like we've got good reason to lynch Axolotl.  I think that this lynch will honestly provide us with a lot of information, and I'm worried enough about Axolotl's role to want them dead.  Weasel, maybe a good lynch, but we're never sure they'll die, and honestly they've wasted a lot of our time.  Idk about them spreading around information, and honestly that's not all that surprising, but despite all the weird things that Weasel has done, I honestly don't think that they're a threat to anyone's win-cons at this point.   Iguana, I don't really know what's going on there but it looks like it's died down at this point.

Axolotl on the other hand is a wildcard.  They could be Hoid, I guess, and there are a few other options, but it matters less to me what there role is at this point than the dangers it presents.  

4 hours ago, Violet Axolotl said:

The “odd power” I have is that I took two actions once. Wow. There’s game mechanics for that. Surprise! I don’t have to have a hidden secret nefarious role to do that. Honestly, Nazh worries me more because we know he exists and we don’t know if he’s got a win con that is compatible with others. Even if there is a Hoid in this game, I’d probably be open to work with him. Hoid has never come across to me as an evil force, so if you’re so opposed to him, maybe the evil force is you. 

Yes.  There are exactly two, aside from being a Shard, which you have claimed not to be.  I asked Seonid to explain them to me pretty early on, since I was wondering how many actions I would be able to take, as a Worldhopper.  The first option, an investment from Cultivation, is one that I doubt applies to you.  The second, a Returned action to give you two extra actions, is null because there were no returned at that point.  So there's still no explanation for your abilities.

At this point, it really matters less to me what your role is, and more that you seem to have apparently inexplicable abilities which you've refused to expound upon.  If you'd explained when asked before, I might have been a little less suspicious, but your refusal to explain what's going on only compounds my suspicion of you.

Additionally, even if I'm wrong about you having a secret role, and somehow there is a natural explanation for your actions, you've refused to give it.  In the very least your lynch would clear the air, and I could have my suspicions confirmed or negated.  And finally, there's no one else I'd rather lynch.

On 1/26/2019 at 2:06 AM, A Joe in the Bush said:

The turn is over. (Is the game? Wait and see.)

Joe you troll.  Why you do this to us.

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2 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Sorry, I must've missed that. Can you refer back to where you clarified that? I only remember you hinting that you where very certain, and that it wasn't just analysis back during that day, but I might have missed something else later.

1 hour ago, Indigo Weasel said:

Also, Axolotl is no longer immune to the lynch, of that helps.

So you attacked me, or someone in your faction did? Well, that’s comforting to know that someone is trying to kill me. :) I’m more likely to want you lynched now since you have shown yourself to be killing other factions. Any reason we shouldn’t lynch you?

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16 minutes ago, Violet Axolotl said:

So you attacked me, or someone in your faction did? Well, that’s comforting to know that someone is trying to kill me. :) I’m more likely to want you lynched now since you have shown yourself to be killing other factions. Any reason we shouldn’t lynch you?

Well, if he tried to kill you based on the accusations leveraged against you (stealing Odium and what-not) (did you know about that, @Indigo Weasel?), it's not that odd that a faction with shards and a means to kill would want to get rid of you.

That having been said, I feel like there's just barely not enough evidence to lynch Axolotl. I believe the main point was that the faction with Odium believed you had stolen it, but apparently at least one person in that faction no longer thinks so, and they're not sharing the info that led them to that conclusion. I still feel like there's something fishy going on there, but not enough to push for that lynch with the information I currently have. If those that know more want to change my mind, they've got to put their cards on the table, because I'm not lynching someone just because someone claims they're evil for 'reasons'.

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1 minute ago, Magenta Albatross said:

Well, if he tried to kill you based on the accusations leveraged against you (stealing Odium and what-not) (did you know about that, @Indigo Weasel?), it's not that odd that a faction with shards and a means to kill would want to get rid of you.

That having been said, I feel like there's just barely not enough evidence to lynch Axolotl. I believe the main point was that the faction with Odium believed you had stolen it, but apparently at least one person in that faction no longer thinks so, and they're not sharing the info that led them to that conclusion. I still feel like there's something fishy going on there, but not enough to push for that lynch with the information I currently have. If those that know more want to change my mind, they've got to put their cards on the table, because I'm not lynching someone just because someone claims they're evil for 'reasons'.

What’s interesting about Weasel claiming that kill is that they’re self proclaimed to be in Ruin and Devotion’s faction, not Odium’s. 

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4 hours ago, Magenta Albatross said:

*I know he was right about at least one of the shards not leaving silverlight, for example.

Looking back on the first cycle, it appears that after retracting speculation on Odium and Devotion, the only Shard Axolotl claimed knowledge of was Ruin, who supposedly worldhopped D1. No claim was made about which Shards remained on Silverlight.

2 hours ago, Taupe Gecko said:

Additionally, even if I'm wrong about you having a secret role, and somehow there is a natural explanation for your actions, you've refused to give it.  In the very least your lynch would clear the air, and I could have my suspicions confirmed or negated.

Killing Axolotl wouldn't really give us any information. If it's a normal role, we still lack information about the double action. As we learned from Khriss's death, we aren't given any information about secret roles or factions until all members of that faction pass on to the Spiritual Realm. If Axolotl is Hoid or Kelsier or what-have-you, we learn nothing about their abilities unless Axolotl is killed, Returned, and killed again, which is a lot of effort to clear up this mystery. 

As for the theft of Odium, it appears that there are multiple surviving secret roles in this game. If Penguin/Hidden Garden comes up with a suspect, or Odium starts killing people, I'll look more into this. but for now I will not vote for Axolotl on the basis of Odium's disappearance.

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The theft of Odium is really interesting to me. It seems likely that it would be Kelsier, as he “preservation”, but that adds yet another secret role, and begs the question as to what other roles there are. Kelsier most have known that Opal would drop a shard, which means that they likely participated in the lynch to be able to pick up the shard. 

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16 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

 

Looking back on the first cycle, it appears that after retracting speculation on Odium and Devotion, the only Shard Axolotl claimed knowledge of was Ruin, who supposedly worldhopped D1. No claim was made about which Shards remained on Silverlight.

After retracting that speculation, yes. Before that he stated that it was one of Odium, Devotion and one other because they hadn't left silverlight (and he gave Ruin as an example of not being the creator because they had). @Violet Axolotl, what rules misunderstanding led you to believe you knew which shards had and hadn't left silverlight?

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2 minutes ago, Magenta Albatross said:

After retracting that speculation, yes. Before that he stated that it was one of Odium, Devotion and one other because they hadn't left silverlight (and he gave Ruin as an example of not being the creator because they had). @Violet Axolotl, what rules misunderstanding led you to believe you knew which shards had and hadn't left silverlight?

I forgot about shards having two actions and between discussions with other players, I thought I had deduced the most likely shards to have stayed and invested in Yolen. But I was definitely way too premature in that assumption. 

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Pearl Chameleon. To be perfectly honest, I don't have a big reason to lynch you but I do feel that lynching someone just because they have two actions isn't really any better. The main argument against Axolotl is that Odium seems to have been stolen but there really isn't any proof of that aside from their faction saying so. But yet it wasn't until the Day round that anything was said. Why not bring it up during the night?

Axolotl might be Hoid or they might be Kelsier or the might be a Shard or maybe they're this or they could be that. To me it seems people are grasping at straws trying to lynch Axo and that doesn't sit well to me.

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If @Chartreuse Penguin comes up with the name of Odium's current Vessel, I might be persuaded to vote for that player. As it is, there don't appear to be many great lynch options. Weasel has a vote for spreading Flamingo's confidential information, but lynching Weasel has never gone well. Iguana has votes because they were in contact with Khriss before she died. If Nazh also dies, this connection might be worth looking into again. Beagle has a vote because they haven't posted in almost two weeks, despite occasionally viewing the Shard. Axolotl has votes for possibly killing Khriss, for possibly stealing Odium, and for possibly having a secret role/not being in a faction. Zebra has a vote for subtly wanting Axolotl to be lynched, or possibly for viewing Khriss as hostile. Chameleon has a vote for being obvious about their desire to see Axolotl dead for their possible role. Honestly, one of my main concerns at the moment is that Ruin might be starting to kill people, if that's what Weasel's comment about Axolotl no longer being protected from the lynch means. It remains to be seen whether the new owner of Odium will show similar bloodthirst. Of the lynch options, I will go with Chameleon for now, as they seem the most willing to kill of the lot.

Edited by Ivory Dragonfly
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43 minutes ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

But yet it wasn't until the Day round that anything was said. Why not bring it up during the night?

I didn't know about it until very late in the night turn when I didn't have any opportunity to post, but it's all at least 2nd hand information. I waited until I could talk to more people about the speculations before putting down my vote.

6 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Of the lynch options, I will go with Chameleon for now, as they seem the most willing to kill of the lot.

Willing to kill? Yes. Why not?

Axolotl is not in my faction. I had information (though some are now backing off that speculation) that they might be a threat to not just my faction but any faction with a Shard. The thought that there even might be a role that could steal a Shard is enough for me to be willing to lynch over.

But here's the biggest reason I've left my vote where it is: no one has presented a better option. No one has given evidence of another person that would have been more likely to steal a Shard.

Find me a better option, and I might switch my vote.

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1 hour ago, Mauve Crocodile said:

Pearl Chameleon. To be perfectly honest, I don't have a big reason to lynch you but I do feel that lynching someone just because they have two actions isn't really any better. The main argument against Axolotl is that Odium seems to have been stolen but there really isn't any proof of that aside from their faction saying so. But yet it wasn't until the Day round that anything was said. Why not bring it up during the night?

Axolotl might be Hoid or they might be Kelsier or the might be a Shard or maybe they're this or they could be that. To me it seems people are grasping at straws trying to lynch Axo and that doesn't sit well to me.

This looks like you grasping at straws to try and protect Axolotl.  Not the first time either, looking back at the thread.  Plus Axolotl tried to protect you as well, in the lynch with Opal Lion.  Worth noting, I guess.

At any rate, I'd still rather lynch Axolotl than Pearl.  The big thing here for me is, I've got reasons to lynch Axolotl.  In the very least I'll see their role and faction.  That should be more than enough to gain the info I'm looking for, and to me is more info than I'll get anywhere else.

3 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Killing Axolotl wouldn't really give us any information. If it's a normal role, we still lack information about the double action. As we learned from Khriss's death, we aren't given any information about secret roles or factions until all members of that faction pass on to the Spiritual Realm. If Axolotl is Hoid or Kelsier or what-have-you, we learn nothing about their abilities unless Axolotl is killed, Returned, and killed again, which is a lot of effort to clear up this mystery. 

As for the theft of Odium, it appears that there are multiple surviving secret roles in this game. If Penguin/Hidden Garden comes up with a suspect, or Odium starts killing people, I'll look more into this. but for now I will not vote for Axolotl on the basis of Odium's disappearance.

What?  We'll see their role, their faction, and we'll see whether or not I was right about them being a secret role.  Their lack of forthcomingness about their role, and their avoidance of the repeated questions about it makes me sincerely doubt that it's a benevolent role.  Better safe than sorry, as has been said before.  

Do you know something I don't?  Because as far as I know I only see one secret role.  Sure, it's likely that there's a Nazh counterpart for the Khriss role, but we simply don't know who that is.  The only obvious possibility this far is Axolotl, who has repeatedly claimed to not have a secret role or a shard, against all probability, without offering alternatives.  I have no recourse but to assume they're lying.

29 minutes ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

If @Chartreuse Penguin comes up with the name of Odium's current Vessel, I might be persuaded to vote for that player. As it is, there don't appear to be many great lynch options. Weasel has a vote for spreading Flamingo's confidential information, but lynching Weasel has never gone well. Iguana has votes because they were in contact with Khriss before she died. If Nazh also dies, this connection might be worth looking into again. Beagle has a vote because they haven't posted in almost two weeks, despite occasionally viewing the Shard. Axolotl has votes for possibly killing Khriss, for possibly stealing Odium, and for possibly having a secret role/not being in a faction. Zebra has a vote for subtly wanting Axolotl to be lynched, or possibly for viewing Khriss as hostile. Chameleon has a vote for being obvious about their desire to see Axolotl dead for their possible role. Honestly, one of my main concerns at the moment is that Ruin might be starting to kill people, if that's what Weasel's comment about Axolotl no longer being protected from the lynch means. It remains to be seen whether the new owner of Odium will show similar bloodthirst. Of the lynch options, I will go with Chameleon for now, as they seem the most willing to kill of the lot.

I don't really get your reasoning.  I feel like a possible shard stealer is slightly more dangerous than Chameleon, who has done almost nothing.  Frankly, I worry slightly about all the opposition to an Axolotl lynch.  Most people should be willing to kill this person; he's simply the most obvious threat.  He's an unknown, with the potential to be an unknown with killing power who targets shards. It concerns me slightly that people aren't at least worried enough to kill him.

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