Long Game 51: A Traitor in the Obligators

[Alvron]

5 hours ago, Ookla the Lumgol said:

I have gotten word through a chain that Fura has been Seeked and is a villager.

Thank you for reporting but given conversions happen after Seeking we can't take that at face value until after the Seer is dead and another seeking happens.  Better to report that someone is either a confirmed elim, the Seer or not the Seer.  Can you please send a message back up the chain and ask if the Seeker only did the one seeking or if they hit a Smoker for the other?

[Araris Valerian]

So the cycle has been going for over 24 hours and I'm the only player that has a vote. If we assume 3 elims, then we might as well treat this as a regualr D1 cycle and start killing each other like normal.

@Jondesu, I din't realize my gaze was so intimidating

[Mailliw73]

Araris. There you go.  For reasons in my first post. I'm struggling to find any good reasons so far aside from roles I know are not the Seer, so I'll go with this for now.

[Alvron]

Devotary.  I have had a storming hard time getting any solid reads so I am going to follow the advice from another game and lynch someone I constantly have trouble reading.

[Araris Valerian]

I suppose a vote on me is better than no vote at all :/.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

I have approximately zero leads as to the traitors are. What I do have is several players who I believe have a less than 1/16 chance of being the Seer. Combined with a hesitance for another inactive lynch, that narrows down the pool somewhat. For right now, I'll vote Jondesu. While potentially irrelevant, he does fit the pattern of being active through cycle 1 and then being not visibly present cycle 2 where no kill occurred. @Jondesu, when did your opposition to discussing wide-scale plans publicly begin? 

[Furamirionind]

Oops forgot it was day cycle. for the moment I am going to vote on CadCom. I will be on before rollover.

CadCom

Edited December 18, 2018 by Furamirionind

[I think I am here.]

Hello!

Well, since I don't find any of the current lynch candidates particularly off or fishy, I will just add Lumgol into the mix.

[Amanuensis]

In the interest of maximizing how productive I can be in this game, can someone fill me in on what I have missed? Specifically dealing with why certain players are getting votes. Otherwise I’m going to end up voting for STINK

Edited December 18, 2018 by Amanuensis

[CadCom]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

I have approximately zero leads as to the traitors are.

I can do better. I have exactly zero leads as to who the traitor(s) are. But, I would like to hear more from @Ookla the Libre He does frequent the Shard, but hasn't stopped by SE in the last little bit. Therefore, I expect him to not have many comments regarding the game, but a quick read-through and thoughts on the read-through would be good. Perhaps your unique experiences are enough to help catch someone that the rest of us overlooked Ookla the Libre(gancho) Consider this the equivalent of a D1 poke vote, except somewhat late in the cycle.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Ookla the Duck

[Araris Valerian]

Current Vote Count:

Snipexe (1): Araris
Araris (1): Mailliw
Devotary (1): Alvron
Jondesu (1): Devotary
Cadcom (1): Fura
Lumgol (1): ITIAH
STINK (1): Aman
Gancho (1): Cadcom

@Amanuensis, you haven't really missed anything. We've had 2 mislynches and no night kills by either village or elim, so everyone is really reluctant to commit to a lynch. I'm going to move my vote off of Snipexe, who doesn't seem to be around, and onto Cadcom. My reasoning is that Cadcom is the only player who has voted after being voted on this cycle. That would make sense for an elim that wanted to reduce the random odds of being hit by the lynch without drawing attention to themselves by dooming another player. Having lots of single votes is helpful to the elims because they don't have any need to engage in discussion. Every post seems to be some form of "I have no idea what is going on" with a possible "here is a vote on some random person I don't actually want to kill," with the exception of Mailliw's vote, which at least seemed more sincere to me. We need people to take sides on things.

[Gancho Libre]

3 hours ago, Ookla the Duck said:

I can do better. I have exactly zero leads as to who the traitor(s) are. But, I would like to hear more from @Ookla the Libre He does frequent the Shard, but hasn't stopped by SE in the last little bit. Therefore, I expect him to not have many comments regarding the game, but a quick read-through and thoughts on the read-through would be good. Perhaps your unique experiences are enough to help catch someone that the rest of us overlooked Ookla the Libre(gancho) Consider this the equivalent of a D1 poke vote, except somewhat late in the cycle.

Somewhat ironically(?) I got this message in my PM box thing, about Cadcom:

"Ookla the Duck(Cadmium Compounder) has been scanned, and is an Obligator,"

Also, you make a good point. I'm not sure if yall want my 'unique experiences' but I should post.

7 hours ago, Ookla the Guacless said:

Hello!

Well, since I don't find any of the current lynch candidates particularly off or fishy, I will just add Lumgol into the mix.

In my mind, I don't find just 'adding someone to the mix' to be the kind of thing a good guy does. Either you actually have proof on Lumgol that you don't want to share, or you're just trying to add further chaos.

I don't know which of these it is, but just to be safe I'll go with the second.

Ookla the Guacless (Itiah)

[Araris Valerian]

So I guess I should probably retract from Cadcom if he was scanned village. Although isn't everyone in this game an obligator? I'll vote on Jondesu since he has reappeared and his activity pattern could explain the lack of a kill last night.

[Mailliw73]

@Ookla the Duck @Ookla the Libre Do these messages have any kind of time frame given about when these people were scanned? It would help to know if they were scanned N1, when everyone but the Seer would’ve come back clear, or N2. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

My reasoning is that Cadcom is the only player who has voted after being voted on this cycle. That would make sense for an elim that wanted to reduce the random odds of being hit by the lynch without drawing attention to themselves by dooming another player.

To be fair, this was also something I did in voting for Jondesu. The pool of suspects were not wide for either of us.

44 minutes ago, Ookla the Libre said:

Somewhat ironically(?) I got this message in my PM box thing, about Cadcom:

"Ookla the Duck(Cadmium Compounder) has been scanned, and is an Obligator,"

Also, you make a good point. I'm not sure if yall want my 'unique experiences' but I should post.

In my mind, I don't find just 'adding someone to the mix' to be the kind of thing a good guy does. Either you actually have proof on Lumgol that you don't want to share, or you're just trying to add further chaos.

I don't know which of these it is, but just to be safe I'll go with the second.

[Ookla the Guacless (Itiah)]

'Obligator' refers to all villagers, but it's also the name for roleless like Walin and Xino. As CadCom previously had his vote on you, your scan likely proves that CadCom is not the Seer. Itiah's vote for Lumgol at least had prior reasoning, as Itiah previously stated suspicion of Alvron and Lumgol. This will be my last post of the day turn, and in the absence of any other insights, I'll keep my vote on Jondesu.

[CadCom]

Ookla the Libre (Gancho). Anyway, I've noticed a couple good points that others have brought up that resonate with me. 1. Chaos and lots of random votes is good for Elims, Which is what Guacless seems to have done( as Libre pointed out), and 2. people believe that Jondesu's activity matches what an elim would have done. 

I agree with the Ookla the Guacless (ITIAH)  reasoning though. Perhaps it would be fair for me to see if there are others who did what Guacless did, but I am too lazy, and not really up to it. Plus this puts 2 votes on 2 people, therefore not dooming one, but at the same time, not causing everything to be completely chaotic. (I hope)

[Furamirionind]

2 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Current Vote Count:

Snipexe (1): Araris
Araris (1): Mailliw
Devotary (1): Alvron
Jondesu (1): Devotary
Cadcom (1): Fura
Lumgol (1): ITIAH
STINK (1): Aman
Gancho (1): Cadcom

@Amanuensis, you haven't really missed anything. We've had 2 mislynches and no night kills by either village or elim, so everyone is really reluctant to commit to a lynch. I'm going to move my vote off of Snipexe, who doesn't seem to be around, and onto Cadcom. My reasoning is that Cadcom is the only player who has voted after being voted on this cycle. That would make sense for an elim that wanted to reduce the random odds of being hit by the lynch without drawing attention to themselves by dooming another player. Having lots of single votes is helpful to the elims because they don't have any need to engage in discussion. Every post seems to be some form of "I have no idea what is going on" with a possible "here is a vote on some random person I don't actually want to kill," with the exception of Mailliw's vote, which at least seemed more sincere to me. We need people to take sides on things.

I find this slightly misleading as the vote count you should have given should have 2 votes on CadCom...

I am switching my vote from CadCom to itiah... I agree that adding someone to the mix is in general going to be a bad thing for the village this game. Also this is Lumgol's first game, and lynching someone just because you can on their first game sounds like a pretty awful welcome to me. Also, unlike CadCom, i think it will be best to doom someone, as you can only  learn so much when something ultimately comes down to chance.

For example, you could have an elim voting on another elim in this game, as if the lynch is tied 3 ways, the elim probably wont die. risk vs reward...

CadCom
Guacless (ITIAH)

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, Mailliw73 said:

@Ookla the Duck @Ookla the Libre Do these messages have any kind of time frame given about when these people were scanned? It would help to know if they were scanned N1, when everyone but the Seer would’ve come back clear, or N2. 

Sorry, I mean to tag @Ookla the Lumgol instead of CadCom, got the messages mixed up in my mind. 

And woah, now we’ve got a lynch train going. I’m not really sure where this entirely came from but I do see the reasoning behind it. I don’t agree enough to join it, and I am definitely more suspicious of CadCom now. I’d especially like to hear from Gancho if he knows when the scan took place? If it was N2 as well, I’ll probsvly remove my vote. If N1, I’m going to stick to it. 

Araris. 

[Araris Valerian]

In retrospect it is a bit misleading, but it was not intentionally that way. I used the vote count to inform my own vote, and then just forgot to update it.

It's interesting that Fura and Cadcom both have been scanned village but seem averse to lynching Jondesu. Not sure what I make of that.

[Snipexe]

On 12/16/2018 at 7:01 PM, Araris Valerian said:

That means that the only living players that posted D1 but not D2 are Jondesu and Rath. I'm also fairly suspicious of Snipexe for his vote on Walin, which was pointed out to have bad justification. I'm not going to start out with a vote on an inactive player, since that won't generate much discussion, but if Jondesu or Rath reappears then I'll be watching them. So I'll vote Snipexe. There was no worry of a no-lynch going through (sort of impossible this game), so why vote Walin instead of one of the other 3 people that had a vote? (Not saying that an answer to this question will cause me to move my vote)

I apperently totally missed this, sorry, I will do my best to remedy your concerns.

The reason I said to confirm the lynch, and I definitely didn’t word that right, is to make sure that there was at least one vote on Walin. If Walin was a Soother, and the convert was a soother, then that could have reduced the lynch to nothing.

[CadCom]

36 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Sorry, I mean to tag @Ookla the Lumgol instead of CadCom, got the messages mixed up in my mind. 

And woah, now we’ve got a lynch train going. I’m not really sure where this entirely came from but I do see the reasoning behind it. I don’t agree enough to join it, and I am definitely more suspicious of CadCom now. I’d especially like to hear from Gancho if he knows when the scan took place? If it was N2 as well, I’ll probsvly remove my vote. If N1, I’m going to stick to it. 

Araris. 

I mean, I really don't understand where your suspicion is coming from. You said that you do see the reasoning behind the lynch, but that you don't agree enough to join it. Then you proceed to vote on me, saying you're more suspicious of me because of the reasoning that you somewhat agree with?

34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

It's interesting that Fura and Cadcom both have been scanned village but seem averse to lynching Jondesu. Not sure what I make of that.

I'm not particularly averse to the lynch on Jondesu, I just think that the lynch on Guacless is more beneficial because Guacless has more information in his posts we can analyze as opposed to just analyzing based off of activity timeframes. 

On another note, I am beginning to become suspicious of Mailliw, which If I leave to see tomorrow, I would love to explain in more detail, after doing actual analysis, as opposed to just my gut read on him. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Ookla the Duck

[Mailliw73]

Sorry I didnt explain it well. Just the switch to Guac seemed really sudden to me. I see that the original reasoning for voting on Guac makes sense enough that I believe someone would be suspicious for that. I don’t know if it makes enough sense for a lynch train to start though. I guess you probably were voting on them at least partially to save yourself which makes a bit more sense now that I think about it. 

[I think I am here.]

Hello, of you looked at my previous posts on Lumgol, I already thought he was suspicious for a number of reasons that I said, though this wasn't me adding him for no reason. Maybe I should've said them when I was making my vote now. But yeah, my suspicions stemmed from when he jumped on the fact that the Tineye message could be a red herring without adding any sort of analysis on the message, that he was quick to try and say how the Seer might have not took an action (before the inactive Seer became a theory) and because he was a late bandwagoner on the Walin lynch.

So, yeah. I wasn't 'adding him into the mix' for no reason or just because I could, which I admit would be cruel for someone's first game, but I probably should have repeated my suspicions this cycle anyway.

Edited December 18, 2018 by Ookla the Guacless

[Alvron]

Votes: (I think this is correct.  I hate Ookla season)
Snip (0): Araris
Araris (0): Maill
Devotary (0): Alv
Jon (3): Devotary, Araris, Alv
CadCom (1): Fura, Araris, Maill
Lumgol (1): Itiah
Stink (1): Aman
Gancho (0): CadCom
Itiah (3): Gancho, CadCom, Fura

Devotary.  Jondesu.  While I would've preferred Devotary to be lynched, I'm happy to tie up the vote between Jondesu and Itiah.  Let the Gods of Luck and Chance decide.

[Straw]

The Day is over!