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Long Game 51: A Traitor in the Obligators


Straw

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I still feel that any Coinshots out there should attack somebody tonight. If the target survives, perhaps they could do a PM relay chain similar to the type suggested for Seekers. I'm less sure about this second part, as surviving an attack is far less alignment indicative than being scanned as evil, and while the identity of the Coinshot wouldn't be revealed for certain, a reasonable suspicion could be catastrophic if the Coinshot PMs an elim first and the elims decide to kill that player(or convert them, which is also a possibility, especially if the Seer has 2 beads at that point) just in case.

Edited by Ookla the Heretical
Added words in parentheses.
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[Writeup to be edited in later]


No one is dead!

Tineye Message:

My fellow obligators, resist any urge to give in to bribes. What amount of money is worth the betrayal of the Sliver of Infinity? We must remain steadfast in our service to the Lord Ruler.

~ Ookla the Pious

(Last message was from Ookla the Haggard)

GM Notes:

PMs are open.

The day will end at 5:30 pm EST on December 18th.

Player List:

Spoiler

1. Ookla the Phoenix (AKA xinoehp512(Neddih) Obligator

2. Ookla the Guacless (AKA I think I am here) (The Legendary Guacless)

3. Araris Valerian (Ookla the Inherited)

4. Malliw73 (Matarn Wachtrot)

5. Alvron (Nameless Obligator #5)

6. Ookla the Lumgol (AKA Lumgol) (Teraval)

7. Coop772 (Ihcnoux)

8. Ookla the Ring (AKA Karnatheon) (Bessum)

9. Ookla the Gambler (AKA Nohadon) (Velrond Tarot)

10. Amanuensis (Xemalun Renaud)

11. Ookla the Duck (AKA Cadmium Compounder) (Palessi)

12. Ookla the Libre (AKA Gancho Libre) (Erbil Ohcnag)

13. Rathmaskal (Lord Flamingo)

14. Ookla the Heretical (AKA Devotary of Spontaneity) (Jesorden)

15. Ookla the Skeptical (AKA Snipexe) (Snipexe)

16. Jondesu (Remart)

17. STINK (Flans Mastic)

18. Ookla the Walinevitable (AKA Walin) (Nedran) Obligator

19. Furamirionind (Furamirionind)

 

Edited by Ookla of Light
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Let us start some discussion off nice and early.  As it is now D3, I ask all Seekers, Rioters, Coinshots and Soothers to pass their findings to the thread either via direct postings or a chain PM to another for them to post on your behalf.  We basically only have this cycle left to find the Seer before they use up all their Atium.

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31 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, maybe we should start looking at the players that are pretty inactive.

Because there have been no kills?

28 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Let us start some discussion off nice and early.  As it is now D3, I ask all Seekers, Rioters, Coinshots and Soothers to pass their findings to the thread either via direct postings or a chain PM to another for them to post on your behalf.  We basically only have this cycle left to find the Seer before they use up all their Atium.

What findings would these be, exactly? I get the Seekers but what can Coinshots gather?

Also sorry for barely posting so far. Haven't really had a reason to, if I’m honest. But now that there’s 3 eliminators (maybe?) it might be time for me to help kick things off.

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Just now, Amanuensis said:

Because there have been no kills?

What findings would these be, exactly? I get the Seekers but what can Coinshots gather?

Also sorry for barely posting so far. Haven't really had a reason to, if I’m honest. But now that there’s 3 eliminators (maybe?) it might be time for me to help kick things off.

If a coinshot attempted a kill and failed it could be indicative of a thug or the seer. So they could bring that up.

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The lack of kills confuses me a bit... the seer should have converted someone N1... If they did, they could have a kill every turn, regardless of whether or not the seer converted someone.

I think we either have an inactive coinshot, or the coinshot hit the seer. as the thread came up fairly recently, it is still possible that someone will come out saying they caught the seer.

As (again) there wasnt a kill last night, I think either the seer is inactive, is scouting other people's roles before converting, or possibly isnt killing yet hoping that we will target inactives.

That last one is a bit of a stretch though... as once they do start killing, the ploy will be up... and chances are we will hit some of their converted by then.

I would currently bet on the scouting player roles option. They may be looking specifically to catch the high value roles...

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We don't know there is a Coinshot. Nowhere do the rules state that all roles are included. As for what Alvron posted, I'm still against mass role claims. The Seer almost certainly has another conversion or two, and also is able to kill people (in theory). If the lack of a kill was caused by inactivity, then presumably the converted player was active D1 to draw attention to themselves. That player would then have been inactive N2, and possibly D2 as a result. Everyone posted D1 except the following:

STINK, Gancho, Nohadon, Coop, and Lumgol. These are possible Seer candidates if the Seer was inactive N1, causing the lack of a N2 kill.

That means that the only living players that posted D1 but not D2 are Jondesu and Rath. I'm also fairly suspicious of Snipexe for his vote on Walin, which was pointed out to have bad justification. I'm not going to start out with a vote on an inactive player, since that won't generate much discussion, but if Jondesu or Rath reappears then I'll be watching them. So I'll vote Snipexe. There was no worry of a no-lynch going through (sort of impossible this game), so why vote Walin instead of one of the other 3 people that had a vote? (Not saying that an answer to this question will cause me to move my vote)

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Alright, I should be back in full swing again. I have to say I'm a bit disappointed in the lynch on Walin. I am all on board with discouraging inactivity, but I also don't think lynching them has a whole lot of use, coinshots are usually the better way to take care of them, in my opinion. Granted, in this game, there is still the possibility of an inactive Seer, so it wasn't all bad. 

Onto this cycle, I agree with Alv completely. We need to move forward and something's gotta shake this game up. Apparently my public role reveal day one wasn't enough to get much discussion going, so these result reveals are even more important. Honestly, my best lead is the vote manipulation yesterday. We know now that at least one of the following is not a Smoker: Araris, Alv, Lumgol, Snipexe. If no one is claiming what happened with that manipulation, I'm going to start there. 

Due to PMs, I believe Lumgol and Snipexe are villagers. Araris and Alv, I have no idea. I have the hardest time reading those two. But I'll probably end up voting for one of them or for one of my other top suspicions(though there isn't much reasoning behind them), CadCom or Rath. 

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34 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

As for what Alvron posted, I'm still against mass role claims.

Okay I feel this needs to be cleared up.  I'm not asking for mass role claims.  I'm asking for information reveals.  I want to know the results of their scans.  If they wish to reveal their role as well, I'm not opposed to that.  We have already discussed several ways they can reveal their information without being identified.
I've felt that over the years we have placed a premium on not revealing roles.  Those that do, get told by others that they shouldn't and over time that shifts how people play the game.  PM and role safety is great and all but it can be taken to extremes.  If we remove one part of the game then how can we truly evolve and grow.
I for one very, very rarely reveal my role as that's part of my playstyle.  But what about those that want to reveal their role?  Should they just not sign up because they've seen that they will be told to do otherwise?  Revealing your role can make you a target, but it can also make the game more fun.

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3 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

The lack of kills confuses me a bit... the seer should have converted someone N1

Options that, while not especially likely, are worth mentioning: 1.The elims did try to make a kill, and ended up hitting a village Thug or someone protected by a village Lurcher. 2. The N1 convert was a Smoker or Lurcher, and the elims decided to have that convert protect the Seer to ensure the Seer would live long enough to use all their atium for conversions. Lurchers and Thugs are informed of attacks, so if 1. is true, there is likely a villager out there who could confirm this. Being saved by a Lurcher does not confirm alignment and village Thugs who claim to have survived an attack may well be lynched just in case they're the Seer, so choosing to confirm would be up to the villager in question should this be the case.

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I guess I was strongly reacting to the strong wording in your post. I understood you to be implying that it is urgent that the aforementioned roles get their information to the thread. I usually find that players are their own best judge of when to reveal info to people, and that coordinated plans involving role reveals don't work unless the game is inherently unbalanced.

On the whole PM safety thing, I agree that there can be a legitimate playstyle that helps the village that involves being somewhat open with your role in PMs. I also think that some (or even most) role reveals aren't thought through very well. I just like to maintain my position so that people will have second thoughts about revealing. My goal is/should be encourage thoughtfulness, rather than railroad everyone everyone into being the same as me. So apologies if I come off that way, and I henceforth maintain the above position.

Specifically here, I don't think there is too much of a strategic problem with the Soother's/Rioters revealing information. The main risk is the Seer using that knowledge to convert a team with lots of vote manipulation, which isn't really that bad if we can find them quickly. I think Seekers and Coinshots are much more powerful roles for both alignments and should take more consideration into giving information, either directly or indirectly. I think the fact that there are two elim actions that can remove useful village roles in this game is something that weighs against role reveals more strongly than in other games. This is of course balanced somewhat by the possibility to catch the seer early and limit their conversions, as well as the possibility of people hanging on to important information getting converted before they reveal it.

The only role reveal I don't have reservations about is a Thug that survived the elim kill. That would remove any need to focus on inactive players from the first 2 cycles if the claim was true. Said Thug would also not be giving any new information to the elims.

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2 hours ago, Alvron said:

Okay I feel this needs to be cleared up.  I'm not asking for mass role claims.  I'm asking for information reveals.  I want to know the results of their scans.  If they wish to reveal their role as well, I'm not opposed to that.  We have already discussed several ways they can reveal their information without being identified.
I've felt that over the years we have placed a premium on not revealing roles.  Those that do, get told by others that they shouldn't and over time that shifts how people play the game.  PM and role safety is great and all but it can be taken to extremes.  If we remove one part of the game then how can we truly evolve and grow.
I for one very, very rarely reveal my role as that's part of my playstyle.  But what about those that want to reveal their role?  Should they just not sign up because they've seen that they will be told to do otherwise?  Revealing your role can make you a target, but it can also make the game more fun.

That. That is why I did it. I'm also all about sharing information with people you trust, and taking that risk. I fully recognize that there is a risk, possibly a huge one, but if it's fun and you have some trust, I think it's worth it, since the eliminators are already working together as a team and the village needs to too to win.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

The only role reveal I don't have reservations about is a Thug that survived the elim kill. That would remove any need to focus on inactive players from the first 2 cycles if the claim was true. Said Thug would also not be giving any new information to the elims.

I believe Straw said that there'd be no differentiation between kills, which is the problem with Thugs revealing. 

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So if I were elim this game, I cant help but think that one strategy that would pass through my head is to lay silently, while the village kill themselves. Once I am lynched once, then at that time, I would be able to stop laying in wait, and I would pass out as many beads as possible before I'm completely lynched, if I didn't manage to convince them that I'm a thug. 

This would allow the elim to go relatively unnoticed, and find out through much more careful consideration, who exactly they would want to bribe. So I believe that the idea that I recently came up with may not be taken the best by everyone, but I will suggest it anyways. What if we simply don't vote, or vote for (a no lynch, if that's allowed) in order to hopefully incentivize the elims to action. Because if we don't incentivize them, we may remain in this status with no kiills for as long as possible. 

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1 hour ago, Ookla the Duck said:

So if I were elim this game, I cant help but think that one strategy that would pass through my head is to lay silently, while the village kill themselves. Once I am lynched once, then at that time, I would be able to stop laying in wait, and I would pass out as many beads as possible before I'm completely lynched

What if we simply don't vote, or vote for (a no lynch, if that's allowed) in order to hopefully incentivize the elims to action. Because if we don't incentivize them, we may remain in this status with no kiills for as long as possible. 

That strategy would be betting a lot on the Coinshot's continued restraint. With an active Coinshot, the Seer would be able to convert one player, who would then have to kill every single player by themselves, an improbable feat. Even if we wanted to, no-lynches aren't possible in this game. If nobody voted, a random player would die every day turn. which is not a preferable outcome.

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15 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I'm not going to start out with a vote on an inactive player, since that won't generate much discussion, but if Jondesu or Rath reappears then I'll be watching them.

Doesn't give me a lot of reason to return, then, huh?

Seriously, though, I was just dealing with computer trouble and a busy couple of days on top of that, which is why I wasn't really participating.  I did read the thread on mobile during the last night cycle, but didn't feel I had anything to add at the time.

I honestly don't have much to say now either other than to chime in on why there's no kill, and until (and if) we get information about why that might be the case, we can only speculate.  I don't think it gives us a lot to go on regarding the identity or even activity levels of the Seer, though it's certainly possible they're an inactive or relatively inactive, but there's plenty of other possibilities that have been mentioned. I'd be fine with a no-lynch today honestly, except I know that's not going to happen since there's been votes already, so I'll consider who I feel is the best candidate for a lynch.

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3 hours ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

That strategy would be betting a lot on the Coinshot's continued restraint. With an active Coinshot, the Seer would be able to convert one player, who would then have to kill every single player by themselves, an improbable feat. Even if we wanted to, no-lynches aren't possible in this game. If nobody voted, a random player would die every day turn. which is not a preferable outcome.

fair enough. In that case, It could be that the traitor is relatively active, and they sent in another bead, and the inactive person was the person he converted N1, who was inactive, possibly due to the weekend. 

I haven't been following this game very closely, and for that I apologize. Let me look over the thread real quick and see If I can formulate any suspicions. 

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