Long Game 51: A Traitor in the Obligators

[Straw]

Thread's closed! The first day will be up soon.

[Straw]

[Writeup to be posted later]

---

GM Notes:

PMs are open!

The Day will end at 6:30 EST on Wednesday (one hour later than usual).

I've sent out GM PMs. Please let me know if you didn't get one.

Players:

Spoiler

1. Ookla the Phoenix (AKA xinoehp512) (Neddih)

2. Ookla the Guacless (AKA I think I am here) (The Legendary Guacless)

3. Araris Valerian (Ookla the Inherited)

4. Malliw73 (Matarn Wachtrot)

5. Alvron (Nameless Obligator #5)

6. Ookla the Lumgol (AKA Lumgol) (Teraval)

7. Coop772 (Ihcnoux)

8. Ookla the Ring (AKA Karnatheon) (Bessum)

9. Ookla the Gambler (AKA Nohadon) (Velrond Tarot)

10. Amanuensis (Xemalun Renaud)

11. Ookla the Duck (AKA Cadmium Compounder) (Palessi)

12. Ookla the Libre (AKA Gancho Libre) (Erbil Ohcnag)

13. Rathmaskal (Lord Flamingo)

14. Ookla the Heretical (AKA Devotary of Spontaneity) (Jesorden)

15. Ookla the Skeptical (AKA Snipexe) (Snipexe)

16. Jondesu (Remart)

17. STINK (Flans Mastic)

18. Ookla the Walinevitable (AKA Walin) (Nedran)

19. Furamirionind (Furamirionind)

 

Edited December 11, 2018 by Ookla of Light

[Furamirionind]

Just checking in.  I won't have time to post or analyse or etc. Untill tomorrow though.

[Snipexe]

At this point there’s really not much to say other then that as in most scadrial games, the two most important roles are going to be the coinshot and the seeker, followed closely by the soother and rioter (excluding of course the seer). The rioter vote manip will be likely be the most interesting thing to analyze, as within a few cycles they will likely be able to be identified, assuming that they are using it consistently.

[Rathmaskal]

Lord Flamingo was still somewhat annoyed that he hadn't been the one to take over the estate of the mighty Lord Heron.  How could they pass up such an opportunity?  He was the perfect candidate for this.  When he was tapped to join the obligators, he was somewhat mollified.  At least someone had recognized his greatness.

~~

So, right now, I believe there is one elim...and if we manage to kill said elim, they can survive and look like a thug (or saved by a lurcher if it's via coinshot).

I'm not sure if this means we should just keep killing people as we find they survive lynches...has anyone else been through a game like this and is able to weigh in?

Also, this is my first conversion game, but it seems obvious that we can't leave anyone as hard cleared past a night cycle.

I was about to ask what time zone 6:30 represented, but it looks like that was answered in the game thread - EST.  Good to know.

[I think I am here.]

Hello everyone!

12 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, right now, I believe there is one elim...and if we manage to kill said elim, they can survive and look like a thug (or saved by a lurcher if it's via coinshot).

Rath makes a good point that if we got a lucky lynch and the elim survived it would look like a thug or Lurcher protect, which could narrow down our options. But I don’t know if we want to lynch a random person to we’ll need to some heavy player analysis this round of we want to get the elims straight off.

I think I’ve only played one conversion game before, and that was the Elantris one. I don’t remember any strategies though, anyone want to pipe in on that?

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ookla the Guacless

[Mailliw73]

Important Notice
Please Read:

Fellow Obligators of the Steel Ministry,

This notice is to confirm to you of the presence of a thief and a traitor among us. He has robbed the stores of atium and is believed to be able to burn it. He has been pronounced dangerous and manipulative. Please inform your superiors of any information that may lead to the capture or death of this traitor. We know you have the best of desires for the Empire at heart and ask for your aid in this inquisition. 
May the Lord Ruler guide us.

~Prelan Matarn Wachtrot
Canton of Inquisition

[Alvron]

22 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, right now, I believe there is one elim...and if we manage to kill said elim, they can survive and look like a thug (or saved by a lurcher if it's via coinshot).

I'm not sure if this means we should just keep killing people as we find they survive lynches...has anyone else been through a game like this and is able to weigh in?

Also, this is my first conversion game, but it seems obvious that we can't leave anyone as hard cleared past a night cycle.

Problem with that is that while there is currently one Elim, that will not last long as they will convert this Night cycle.  Best case we can hope for is that we lynch them today and the Coinshot attacks them again burning through two beads of Atium.  Odds are the Seer started with 3-4 beads so they would survive but they would at least be outed.  Our best chance is to Coinshoot anyone that survives a Lynch.  Sorry Thugs.  If we go after those that survive the night we run the risk of killing someone protected by a Lurcher.  Either the Lurcher outs themselves (bad) or we lose a Villager (bad) should we choose to attack those that survive the night.

Can't even trust Seeker scans for a single night.  The Conversion happens last on the OoA so even if someone is Seeked as Village, they can still be converted that night and be evil when the sun comes up.  We need to kill the Seer before any Seeker scans can be trustworthy.

27 minutes ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

 The rioter vote manip will be likely be the most interesting thing to analyze, as within a few cycles they will likely be able to be identified, assuming that they are using it consistently.

Not if they use it right.  During LG2 a Rioter was able to successfully disguise themselves as a Soother.  Was very convincing.  Going by the current rules set up, it would work again this game.  And no, I'm not going to tell you what the trick is.  Go read LG2 if you want to know.   

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

35 minutes ago, Alvron said:

If we go after those that survive the night we run the risk of killing someone protected by a Lurcher. 

The issues are that night kills are undetectable if the target survives and kills are not differentiated, so we won't be able to tell who survived the night, much less how. A single night kill could mean conversion/inactive Seer + Coinshot kill, or Seer kill + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. No night kills suggests conversion/inactive Seer + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. I believe it would help if the Coinshot committed to killing someone every night, prioritising those who survived lynches. Asking Thugs who survived the night to claim, and asking Lurchers to abstain from protecting until further notice, may help with this problem, but could easily cause worse issues.

I'll have to read through LG39 again, but one of the more notable pieces of information is that the Seer began with four atium beads in a 25 player game. In this 19 player game, I would lean more towards three starting atium beads.

[Alvron]

10 minutes ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

The issues are that night kills are undetectable if the target survives and kills are not differentiated, so we won't be able to tell who survived the night, much less how. A single night kill could mean conversion/inactive Seer + Coinshot kill, or Seer kill + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. No night kills suggests conversion/inactive Seer + inactive Coinshot/Thug extra life/Lurcher protection/Seer extra life. I believe it would help if the Coinshot committed to killing someone every night, prioritising those who survived lynches. Asking Thugs who survived the night to claim, and asking Lurchers to abstain from protecting until further notice, may help with this problem, but could easily cause worse issues.

I'll have to read through LG39 again, but one of the more notable pieces of information is that the Seer began with four atium beads in a 25 player game. In this 19 player game, I would lean more towards three starting atium beads.

I hadn't noticed that failed kills aren't revealed.  Most irritating as we lose a good deal of information there.   Asking Thugs to out themselves wouldn't work as they know they will likely be lynched.  And Lurchers should always be protecting.  The more lives we have, the longer the game and the higher our chances of winning are.  Coinshots should only go after those that survive a lynch for the same reason.  Seekers should scan those directly above and below themselves on the player list for the first two cycles to avoid too much overlap.  It's not much help while the Seer is alive but it will give us some idea of what we have to work with later on.

I can see 3 or 4 atium in this game.  I agree that 3 is more likely but 4 is also a possibility depending on role distribution.  I'm working on 4 simply as it's the worst case.  If there's only 3, great, but if there is 4 then I would rather be prepared for it than caught short.

[Karnatheon]

Hey everyone just checking in. Don't really have anything to add to the discussion. I agree with the comment about Seekers using the roster to avoid overlap.

[Amanuensis]

10 hours ago, Alvron said:

I hadn't noticed that failed kills aren't revealed.  Most irritating as we lose a good deal of information there.  

Hard locking Alvron as village for the rest of the game.

[I think I am here.]

Alvron could actually be a good pick for a convert, given he can apparently be very hard to read according to some people.

Something I just want to say as a reminder to our Seeker (or Seekers, but I don’t know if there would be two), that with your results make sure to find someone you trust who you can PM them to, so that you don’t have to outst yourself to find an elim. But if the elims target the Relayer you PM’d then they can find out the Seeker. So either way it’s a bit of a pickle.

Lurchers, I would say to just protect people you find worth protecting. I don’t really know any other tips.

Coinshots have a kill, which is useful, but also bad. It’s worth mentioning Coinshots are 2 Atium beads to bribe, so perhaps we could bait the elims inro targeting Coinshots to expend Atium? No, because either way it would be another kill, which would be terrible.

Rioters and Soothers have the potential to influence lynches, so I’m assuming they would be a pretty big target for elims, since the lynch is the only thing that can kill them other than the Coinshot.

Copperclouds, Thugs And Tineyes: I don’t really know what else to put. A coppercloud would be useful to convert, but I’m not sure how the elims would know someone’s a coppercloud. I don’t know how they would know if someone was a Thug either, unless the Thug survives a kill, in which their power has been expended anyway. I’ll need to recheck the rules, but can’t Tineyes send anonymous messages to the thread? If so, a Tineye and a Seeker pair would be really helpful, as you could have a Relayer and a source for scans. Though you’d have to be careful the Tineye wasn’t making things up.

I was going to do some RP, but this post is long enough and I’m tired  But later, I promise.

[CadCom]

Hey all, Checking in now. Could I get a time zone for the cycle close? And I'm assuming 6:30 PM? 

I should be back before the end of the cycle. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Having the Seekers scan those adjacent to themselves on the player list for the first two cycles can prevent overlap, with the obvious downside that following this strategy exclusively means that the Seeker's identity will be narrowed down considerably if the Seer is outed by a scan. Since I just realized by actually looking at the rules for the Seeker that they can only determine role, not alignment, this downside is not as significant as I had earlier assumed. This also means Smoking is less harmful for the village. I still would not recommend Smoking others at this stage of the game, but I am no longer as willing to say that anyone being Smoked N2 or beyond is almost certainly evil.

2 hours ago, Ookla the Duck said:

Hey all, Checking in now. Could I get a time zone for the cycle close? And I'm assuming 6:30 PM? 

The cycles close at 6:30 PM, EST.

[Straw]

NEW CLARIFICATIONS:

Seekers detect role and alignment.

Rioters can turn a no vote into a vote and vice versa.

Edited December 11, 2018 by Ookla of Light

[Alvron]

11 hours ago, Ookla the Guacless said:

Alvron could actually be a good pick for a convert, given he can apparently be very hard to read according to some people.

I am both a good pick and a bad pick for converting.  Good pick given many players have a hard time reading me and I can come up with some really good plans.  Bad pick as I always tend to set up a deadman switch to get me outed if I am converted and I do tend to get scanned fairly early.  Good pick as I get scanned fairly early so a later conversion works well on me.  Bad pick as I'm not someone that gains a lot of trust even when clear and I don't get a lot of information.  Either way it's both a good idea and a bad idea to convert me.  Question for the Seer is, is the reward worth the risk?

7 hours ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

Having the Seekers scan those adjacent to themselves on the player list for the first two cycles can prevent overlap, with the obvious downside that following this strategy exclusively means that the Seeker's identity will be narrowed down considerably if the Seer is outed by a scan. Since I just realized by actually looking at the rules for the Seeker that they can only determine role, not alignment, this downside is not as significant as I had earlier assumed. This also means Smoking is less harmful for the village. I still would not recommend Smoking others at this stage of the game, but I am no longer as willing to say that anyone being Smoked N2 or beyond is almost certainly evil.

Should a Seeker find the Seer within the first 2 cycles, I would strongly encourage them to out themselves.  Yes they become a prime target for death but it will let us burn down the Seers atium which means less converts.  The Seeker can only trust themselves as their contacts/scans can be converted after being Seeked so telling them puts the Seeker at risk while allowing the Seer to remain hidden.  I would rather lose a Seeker early in the game to out the Seer than for them to remain quiet and let the Seer use up their Atium giving us more to find.

Pending some answers I'm waiting on from the GM, my suggestions for the first couple of cycles would be:
Soothers and Rioters: Move votes.  Outside of a game twist, the Seer can't Smoke themselves.  If the Soothers and Rioters can't move a vote, then their target is a Smoker and thus not the Seer.  Cross that name off the list of suspects.  If you want, contact someone and have them reveal who you targeted or you can reveal yourself.  If you moved a vote, claim it.  You can't be the Seer.
Seekers: Seek those above and below you on the player list.  After that, work on any votes that were moved.  If someone 'proved' themselves to be a Soother or Rioter that is above or below you on the player list, seek one of the moved votes instead so the seeking isn't wasted.
Smokers:  Smoke only yourself.  Second hand smoking is bad for everyones health.

Late addition: thanks to Straws answers, a new bit of information.  Rioter, if you vote and want to remain hidden, move a no vote to where your vote is.  This will keep the numbers the same unless your target is a smoker.

[xinoehp512]

Hello all! Just died in the other game, so should have plenty of time to contribute to this one.

[Mailliw73]

Adding to what the 5th Obligator has said,  it’s day one and there’s only one traitor. Our chances of lynching them are slim. But, we should provide soothers and rioters with ample opportunity to check our roles. I suggest we each vote for a different person playing, resulting in no lynch, so that soothers and rioters can go about their business immediately as well as be positive that their attempted manipulation failed or succeeded. 

For that reason only, I will vote Alv because I want to be the first to do it.  

Edit: @Ookla of Light can rioters move a vote to a no vote?

Edited December 11, 2018 by Mailliw73

[Furamirionind]

10 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Adding to what the 5th Obligator has said,  it’s day one and there’s only one traitor. Our chances of lynching them are slim. But, we should provide soothers and rioters with ample opportunity to check our roles. I suggest we each vote for a different person playing, resulting in no lynch, so that soothers and rioters can go about their business immediately as well as be positive that their attempted manipulation failed or succeeded. 

For that reason only, I will vote Alv because I want to be the first to do it.  

Edit: @Ookla of Light can rioters move a vote to a no vote?

I can't tell if it is being suggested that we let the vote manip decide who gets lynched, or if we still want a no lynch.  Either way, I feel like deciding the desired outcome before the day ends is going to help make sure that we don't accidentally end up with a no lynch, or lynch, as I am doubting the vote manip roles will be communicating on who they will be voting.

For the time being though, I like the idea as it could narrow down who the seer is. So I will vote on Xino, for the reason that they (for all intents and purposes) are the name below me.

Quick question though, if the intent is to just find out if people can be manipulated, the only turn we can truly trust the results for, is this one.

Just a random thought, as people can change alignments mid-game, every-time someone gains information, would it make sense (at least in the early game) to just tell 1-2 other people that info? The upside is that info is not lost if the person who gained it gets converted.  However the down side is that the seer will learn much quicker who is what roles.
On further thought, I don't think the trade off is worth it at all... I honestly find this game more confusing than MR32. lol.

[Straw]

46 minutes ago, Mailliw73 said:

Edit: @Ookla of Light can rioters move a vote to a no vote?

Yes.

[Mailliw73]

1 hour ago, Furamirionind said:

I can't tell if it is being suggested that we let the vote manip decide who gets lynched, or if we still want a no lynch.  Either way, I feel like deciding the desired outcome before the day ends is going to help make sure that we don't accidentally end up with a no lynch, or lynch, as I am doubting the vote manip roles will be communicating on who they will be voting.

For me, this time I’m suggesting a no vote. We each vote for one person and then soothers soothe and Rioters riot to no vote, since Straw just confirmed that. And yes, it’ll only prove the rioters and soother’s alignments this cycle and they will have confirmation on Smokers for this cycle, but we’ll know that those people aren’t the Seer, which is the first priority right now. 

[Furamirionind]

I forgot to vote in my above post... so...

Ookla the Phoenix (AKA xinoehp512) (Neddih)

[xinoehp512]

This is as good of an idea as any. RNG says Ookla the Guacless/Itiah.

[Furamirionind]

...Xino, that looks more like following the pattern of voting for the person below you, rather than RNG... But whatever. : )