Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Steeldancer]

Gah I'm sorry I got up late and then have spent most of my free time today trying to locate my lost ID card, which is kind of important because I can't take my finals without it.
OK, I went back to the night and found the post that made me suspicious. It was Young Bard's post, but now I just realized that it reads as suspicious because its in character. sigh. But at the moment I don't really have much else- I haven't been paying enough attention to know if that was purposeful, or whatnot, but I'm going to vote Young Bard. As for the progression of the game, I won't lie, I'm still a bit confused to how that works, so I'll let those who have more time to divine what's going on with the rules do that. I will try to focus my efforts and the bit of time I do have to figuring out who looks suspicious. I probably won't be back by the end of the turn, because I have a concert and a mandatory end-of-semester meeting, so yeah. 

[+Ark1002]

I didn't see the pokevote, as I already said. I was looking through old posts and saw that, which struck me as suspicious at the time. I'm going to poke vote Xino.

[Furamirionind]

...we are less than 3 hours from the end of the turn, and still all most people are doing (including myself to an extent) is pokevoting people.  I have a lot of homework to do tonight, but I will try to get on a before rollover to re-evaluate who I am going to vote for. I don't want to lynch snipexe, but between snipexe and nobody, I'll vote snipexe.

[Rathmaskal]

OK folks, first off, I'm hoping to be a bit more active starting tomorrow.  Weekends in general are just not great for me since I typically am not sitting in front of a computer as much.

A couple comments on what I've seen:

-I don't see any reason why the elims would want to target Mat (definitely not saying Mat should claim, since I definitely could be wrong here), but the skill of being able to open PMs isn't overly threatening to the elims as far as I can tell.  The one thing it does do is provides Mat the ability to claim on a one-by-one basis.  So, Mat should end up becoming a fairly trustworthy person here (OK, so maybe that would be a reason to target him as elims...glad I talked through this)

-So, despite typically being a math person, I actually haven't gone through and done all the math that other people have done regarding blight turns and how long we have before the game would just automatically end, but because there is a timer and people are thinking that it could be as soon as 8 cycles that the blight fully overtakes the eye, I'm going to just throw out there that I doubt there are 5 elims.  We'd almost be at LYLO at this point if that were the case (assuming the other math is correct).  *"queue, but an elim would say something like that to make everyone else underestimate the number of elims"*

-Some people have talked about letting rings 2 and 3 just fall without a fight...I'm not a big fan of that because of the escalating level of attack from the blight.  If we just let multiple levels fall like that, we're going to start escalating faster on the later rings...  Yes, I know there are two parts to the escalation - the total cycles and the number of cycles a specific ring has been defended - so I'm specifically talking about that second part of the escalation.

-I really don't have any strong reads on anyone at this point...

• Karnatheon keeps saying things that would be huge red flags to me if they were from a more experienced player...not sure what to think at this point though.
• A lot of inactivity so far for sure (yes, I know I'm guilty myself) - one of these days we're going to see a game where everyone is active and the thread is going to be flying...that could be a lot of fun.
• I'm not going to jump on Xino or Ark this game at this point...they always read elim...hopefully some voting patterns pop up that can actually give me some information there.
• randuir, The Hydra Reincarnated (not The Dragon Reborn) is basically just treading water still...always tough to get an early read on you.

Current vote count:

• Ark (1) - Snipexe
• Droughtbringer (1) - Furamirionind
• Rathmaskal (1) - randuir
• Young Bard (1) - Steeldancer

That's tough...I think I'll be best-served by voting on one of these people (obviously not myself)...even though I don't find them to be the best candidates in my mind...  So, for now, I'll go with my gut: BrightnessRadiant.  I don't have a lot of rationale on that - mostly just a gut read.

Edit: I'm going with that vote for now...hoping to be available to change votes for the rest of the evening if necessary.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Rathmaskal

[Snipexe]

@Ookla the White-Cloaked

Can you vote for yourself?

[Karnatheon]

Ark1002/Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical

Now let me explain. I don't feel any less suspicious of Ark, I'm simply more suspicious of Snipexe. Padan Fain could have killed Snipexe last night. As Fifth said in his rulings/clarification compilation in the N1 thread, if Padan Fain uses his Shadow Within on a Hardy player who has already lost a life, that player dies. So if Padan Fain had done that, Snipexe would have died. Let me list the likely reasons that didn't happen.

(Highest Probability)Snipexe is an elim. If Snipexe is an elim then Padan Fain would obviously not want them dead. I feel like this is the most likely reason, as the others I will list have a lot of variables.

(Middle Probability)Snipexe is village, Padan Fain wants someone to come to the conclusion I did and get us to lynch them. Since no one has pointed out the Padan Fain kill possibility before now, I feel like this is unlikely. They would be hoping someone figured it out, and came to the conclusion that Snipexe was elim. The only other action Padan could have taken last night was to Sabotage, and I feel like a village kill is worth more to the elims than that, especially since it wouldn't use up their nightly kill action.

(Middle Probability)Snipexe is village, Padan Fain didn't know they could do this. Fifth posted his compilation at about 9 am yesterday. That gave Padan 12 hours to see the post, and know they could kill Snipexe this way. I find it unlikely they didn't read it, but maybe the missed that specific part because it was a lot to take in. I feel like at least one elim would have pointed it out to them in the evil doc though, so I find this unlikely.

(Second Lowest Probability)Snipexe is village, Moiraine Shielded Padan Fain at random. It is possible that Padan Fain did know they could do this, and tried to eliminate Snipexe using his ability, but Moiraine decided to randomly roleblock someone instead of defending, and the person they roleblocked was Padan Fain. The odds of Moiraine choosing to roleblock over defend are low, and even lower that they picked the 1 out of 18 other possible people.(Not counting Lan or herself, assuming Lan is an active role)

(Lowest Probability)Padan Fain doesn't exist. Fifth has stated they will not confirm nor deny that any given role is active in this. The only roles we have confirmation of is that Rand and Perrin roles have been filled. If Furaminoid is telling the truth then that means Balthamel is also confirmed, but I think we can safely assume all evil roles are filled, and most light roles are filled as well. Just had to list it because it was a possibility.

Those are the conclusions I drew upon rereading through N1. As people have expressed concern over me only doing rules analysis and not player analysis, I'll give it a shot. I realize a lot of this may be repetition of what others have said, but I feel like doing so helps keep us all in check so no one "misses" something they want people to pass over. Also of note, before I forget. The Emond's Fielder's didn't decide to write an anonymous message for the write up. Probably just means they aren't any more sure on things than we are. Also, clarification from the GMs here? Does the doc need to agree as a majority to submit a specific message they all work on writing together? Or how does that work functionally? @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

Droughtbringer: First post in the game. Says they are confused by rules, and will reread them before making any posts. Reasonable.

```The only post they have made all game. Extremely inactive. Hard to say how I feel about them except a desire for activity.

Furaminoid: First one to note the Circle number. Commentary on elim quantity(5), incorrect assumption of Concealed. Quick noting of Rand, Matt, Lan. Math on minimum number of turns we have if no defend happen. 2nd Post: Corrects me on Forsaken group kill. Commentary on role distribution. 3rd Post: Pokes Amanuensis. 4th Post: Summarises/Analyses people. Votes Droughtbringer. 5th Post: Jokes about misunderstanding with BR. N1: 6th Post: Discussion about D1 lynch. Says to pay attention to what people say so they can be caught in lies. 7th Post: Talks about Rings, when we should hold, when we should let it die. Positive effects. 8th Post: Refutes Ark’s accusation of Xino. 9th Post: Clarifies Ring discussion. 10th Post: D2:. Comments on Perrin death. Retracts their progression table in light of how short the game will be. 11th Post: Does some analysis. Votes Droughtbringer again. Mentions they were redirected last night. 12th Post: Rules thing. 13th Post: Discussion/Analysis. Reiterates they are still suspicious of Drought. 14th Post: Math/Ring/Progression discussion. 15th Post: Complains about inactivity so close to turn end. Says they will change vote to Snipexe if needed.

```Overall have been very helpful, provided good discussion. Nothing stands out as suspicious really.

Bard: RP post. 2nd Post: RP post, with discussion! Accuses BR.

```Very few posts here. Hard to come to a conclusion.

Karnatheon(Me): Lan warning, ends up being irrelevant because of answer to rules question. 2nd Post: Confusion about Forsaken using kills. Commentary on elim quantity(6). 3rd Post: Follow up on confusion about Forsaken kill action. Comments on Randuir’s comments about me. Puts forward concern for Snipexe, and Ark. Also tags Rath. Mentions we should maintain high numbers of votes on players to avoid accidental vote negation/manipulation. 4th Post: RP. 5th Post: Commentary on people doing summaries and analysis. Accuses Ark, and explains reasoning. Votes for Ark. 6th Post: Switches vote from Ark to Snipexe to guarantee lynch. 7th Post: Mentions Rathmaskal and Amanuensis are lurking end of D1. N1: 8th and 9th Post: Clarifies if writeup is intended to show that Snipexe is Fal Dara Warrior, which it isn’t. 10th Post: Gives recommendations to people on what actions to take depending on roles they have. 11th Post: Answers a question about redirects. 12th Post: Response to Fal Dara discussion. 13th Post: Points out that I’m suspicious of Ark for the same reason he is suspicious of Xino. 14th Post: D2: Comments on how Perrin dying affects things. Claims it must mean Mat didn’t pm an elim, which people heavily disagree with. 15th Post: Defends against statements in regards to Mat. 16th Post: Responds to Mark about Mat. 17th Post: Responds to Randuir. 18th Post: Reiterates suspicions about Ark. Votes for Ark.

```Summary of my own posts. Not suspicious of myself but provided for context and to not leave anything out.

Randuir: Commentary on Rings and their usefulness. 2nd Post: Commentary on elim quantity(4). 3rd Post: Poke vote on all inactive. Gives some advice to people to defend. Says they think I am village. Gives Furaminoid, Mr Doctor, Devotary a temp pass. Votes for Snipexe and explains why. N1: 4th Post: Brings up math. Discusses Snipexe being Hardy. Reminds people to defend. 5th Post: Says the forgot about Creeper kills when saying losing Rand would be ok, reiterates we shouldn’t depend on Rand for Forsaken kills in late game. 6th Post: Response to Ark. 7th Post: D2: Agrees my statements about Mat are suspicious, lets it slide for time being. 8th Post: Discusses my statements about Mat. Gives me advice. 9th Post: Responds to me. 10th Post: Analysis of players thus far. Seems accurate. 11th Post: Responds to Spinexe’s analysis. Votes for Rath.

```Been very helpful to me in particular. Been very understanding of some of my misunderstandings. Provided lots of good discussion overall. 

Mr Doctor: Discussion of roles, numbers, and elim quantity(5). 2nd Post: Analysis of people. Seems to accurately reflect what people have been posting, with some interpretation. Posts vote summary but doesn’t vote. 3rd Post: Responds to people. Vote validation. Vote summary. N1: 4th Post: Says they’ve been busy. Comments on Ring progression. Agrees with Devotary on Snipexe, doesn’t like Bard’s suspicions about BR.

```Provided some very helpful analysis on D1. Less active than other people but good content in their posts.

Gancho Libre: Response to question on name.

```Only posted once on D1. May be replaced so not much to discuss. 

Snipexe: Says they won’t be back because of lack of internet, comment on Ring vote negation. N1: 2nd Post: Says they are a Hardy Warrior. Says they will be back for an actual response. 3rd Post: D2: Says they were busy. Votes for Ark. 4th Post: Analysis on why Devotary was killed. 5th Post: Rules thing in response to Furaminoid. 

```As stated above I'm voting for Snipexe and am very suspicious of them, just not necessarily for anything they've done. More because of rules interactions and assumptions of elim goals.

Cadmium Compounder: Reiterates their activity will be limited. 2nd Post: Says they are very busy irl. 

```Very limited activity.

BrightnessRadiant: Says they need to read the rules, and will be busy. 2nd Post: Rules confusion. Opinion on people being helpful. Not sure who to vote for. 3rd Post: Player analysis. Discusses elim quantity(5). Seems to accurately summarize what people have been posting. Doesn’t vote. 4th Post: Votes for Snipexe. N1:(I think, might have gotten lost somewhere) 5th Post: Responds to things others have said. 6th Post: Responds to Mr Doctor about choice of vote. 7th Post: RP and OORP response to Bard accusation. 8th Post: Comments on my summary of role actions available.

```Good analysis of people. Lots of confusion about rules, but the rules are very complex so it's understandable. Provided good input.

Devotary: Commentary on Rings, turns, comments on profile pic. 2nd Post: Somewhat confusing commentary on role distribution in docs. Small RP. 3rd Post: Clarification on Concealed. Concern about a lack of votes. Doesn’t vote. 4th Post: Response to Mr Doctor about roles and roleless in docs. 5th Post: Response to BR about Ring and turns, how long we can last against the Blight. 6th Post: Discussion of Snipexe role. Cautions Rand claiming. 7th Post: Discusses vote Negation from Ring and Aginor. 8th Post: Corrects Mr Doctor’s Ring calculations.

```Not much to say here. They were Perrin, and are dead now.

Ark: Says they are excited. 2nd Post: Says they haven’t paid attention and have no suspicions. 3rd Post: Says they are suspicious of Xino. 4th Post: Says they aren’t elim. 5th Post: Votes Xino.

```Still suspect he is an elim. But again I have very little proof, and it's all a gut read. So I'm keeping my eye on them but going with what I feel is a more secure read.

Steeldancer: Says they need to read the rules, and to poke them if they go inactive because they are busy. 2nd Post: Says they don’t know who to vote for because no one seems suspicious. 3rd Post: D2: Says they’re tired and doesn’t remember who they were suspicious of before. 4th Post: Reiterates they’ve been busy. Votes on Bard. 

```Have been pretty inactive. Didn't vote D1 so not a lot of information here.

Rathmaskal: Small RP. Poke vote on Xino. 2nd Post: Retracts poke vote, says they will return. 3rd Post: Says they missed the deadline on D1 vote, even though they were lurking on thread when it happened.

```A little suspicious about them because they were reading the thread for at least the last 30 minutes or so of D1. They didn't vote, and didn't do anything during N1. Most recent post not factored into this because I've been working on this for too long already.

Xinoehp: Responds to poke vote.

```Nothing to go off of really. Lots of inactivity from players this game.

MetaTerminal: Comments on rules headache. Votes for Bard. N1?: 2nd Post: Defends random vote. Says they will stick to player analysis because they think rules analysis is covered. 3rd Post: D2: Says they’re busy. Voices concern that Furaminoid and Snipexe may be some combination of elim/village.

```Posted a little bit. At least made a vote D1, which is more than others have done.

Stink: Says they won’t be active because of laptop.

```Nothing to say here.

Hemalurgic Headshot: Checks in.

```Again, nothing.

Mark: Checks in N1 due to Medical emergency on D1. 2nd Post: Asks BR about their activity, seems to suspect them? 3rd Post: D2: Says my post about Mat seems elimy. 4th Post: Discusses my statements about Mat. 5th Post: Tells me how to do colors on mobile. 6th Post: Small discussion/analysis of a couple people in response to Randuir.

```Seems suspicious of me, but their points are valid.

Amanuensis: Checks in N1. Claims to be busy with life.

```Nothing.

 

I've been working on thie for 2-3 hours now. So I'm going to submit it now. I was hoping to get it in before the 2 hour mark but oh well.

[Snipexe]

13 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Middle Probability)Snipexe is village, Padan Fain wants someone to come to the conclusion I did and get us to lynch them. Since no one has pointed out the Padan Fain kill possibility before now, I feel like this is unlikely. They would be hoping someone figured it out, and came to the conclusion that Snipexe was elim. The only other action Padan could have taken last night was to Sabotage, and I feel like a village kill is worth more to the elims than that, especially since it wouldn't use up their nightly kill action.

I really really disagree with this post. The elim’s goal is #1 outnumber the village #2 kill the eye. Setting me up for the lynch is perfect for both of these things. We know for a fact that we cannot waste lynches. We have at most 8, with likely less. It makes perfect sense for the elim team to leave me as a lynch candidate, to focus the village on a mislynch, allowing more damage to happen to the eye. Ark Karnatheon  this reads too much like an elim trying to cause a mislynch.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ookla the Skeptical
Added retraction

[BrightnessRadiant]

Ugh internet slowness >>

I'm working on a post and have been for a while but gag it's taking so long and it's getting late. I'm just gonna read through the rest of the cycle instead of doing it post by post and commenting. And then I'll be back with my post. Just letting everyone know that I'm here.

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

I really really disagree with this post. The elim’s goal is #1 outnumber the village #2 kill the eye. Setting me up for the lynch is perfect for both of these things. We know for a fact that we cannot waste lynches. We have at most 8, with likely less. It makes perfect sense for the elim team to leave me as a lynch candidate, to focus the village on a mislynch, allowing more damage to happen to the eye. Ark Karnatheon  this reads too much like an elim trying to cause a mislynch.

Snipexe, I agree With what you say in this post, but what specifically makes you think Karn is an elim, and not a villager doing (perhaps) misguided analysis? Remember this is Karn's first game, and I believe they said they havent played much mafia/werewolf before at all.

[Snipexe]

Just now, Callsign: Jato said:

Snipexe, I agree With what you say in this post, but what specifically makes you think Karn is an elim, and not a villager doing (perhaps) misguided analysis? Remember this is Karn's first game, and I believe they said they havent played much mafia/werewolf before at all.

That’s true, and I think I’m just be getting frustrated. However, I am going to leave my vote on them unless a better target for the lynch comes up. If they become a genuine lynch candidate I will remove it, but until then I will not.

[Karnatheon]

I'm honestly so brain-fogged after writing that post, I don't even know if I can properly defend it anymore. Basically, I agree the elims would want a mis-lynch. I just don't think they could reasonably expect it to happen without someone pointing it out in a more ambiguous way. I also understand you being frustrated and understand the retaliation vote. At this point, just going to do a vote summary.

Droughtbringer(1): Furaminoid.

Rathmaskal(1): Randuir.

Young Bard(1): Steeldancer.

Xino(1): Ark

BrightnessRadiant(1): Rath

Snipexe(1): Karnatheon

Karnatheon(1): Snipexe

 

[Fifth Scholar]

33 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Does the doc need to agree as a majority to submit a specific message they all work on writing together? Or how does that work functionally? @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

Right now they just have a general section to edit, which I post at the beginning of the Day turns. And there is a message, by the way. It’s just spoiled for length  

40 minutes ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Can you vote for yourself?

I mean, I guess I won’t stop you if you really want to.  

Also, if you want a vote count, Karnatheon’s is correct. 

[Karnatheon]

I didn't see that before somehow. And after reading it, I wish I wouldn't have read it. If I had a headache earlier, I have a massive Rusting headache now. Storms! Who on earth would write that! I assume they all just decided to troll us and make a legal document and all just edit in whatever parts they want to? I need some aspirin...

[Mr Doctor]

Note: A lot of this post is just responses, and I think that the discussion about Karnatheon’s vote at the end is very pertinent and I want opinions on it. If you don’t have the time to read all of this post and respond to it, read that at least.

 

18 hours ago, Mark IV said:

I don't see why the elims might want to kill Mat, given that Mat wouldn't know whom to trust. It's be easier to manipulate the village if the elims did have a hold of the village's sole PM maker. I don't think they'd waste that chance. 

This part of the post reads slightly elim-ey to me, given that you, karnatheon, have made relatively good observations thus far. I'd not expect your say something like that without thinking it through. 

Of course, it could be an honest mistake too. Who knows?

Karnatheon is sounding a lot like I did in my first Elim game, which is being helpful and active. However, the reason why that strategy works is because it’s what an earnest Villager would do. I’ll keep an eye on it.

 

14 hours ago, randuir said:

I agree with Mark that it would be very unlikely for the elims to kill Mat if he PM'd one of them. Manipulating him (and by extension, the rest of his network) through the PM is far more useful. I don't necessarily think it's suspicious for Karnatheon to state this as he is a fairly new player, unless Karnatheon is the one that was contacted by Mat, or we find out that Mat's first contact was an elim (int that case, I'd be willing to lynch Karnatheon for that comment).

I’m inclined to agree. Mat has no powers that are particularly powerful beyond his information, and that can be bent to the Elims. The Elims can keep him around until he’s outlived his usefulness and then get rid of him whenever they want.

 

13 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I didn't realise me saying the elims would want to kill Mat would be so controversial. I guess I had been thinking about it more from a perspective of assuming the elims would want to kill people with special roles first. I know that if I was Mat and pm'd someone, and didn't die that night, I would be inclined to believe they were village.

I disagree with this, but don’t find it all that suspicious of you. The special roles are higher than vanilla Villagers, but in this game even vanillas have powers, so the offset isn’t as great. The instinct to kill anyone with power is strong, but if the Elims can manipulate Mat into revealing other roles then it’s definitely worth keeping him around.

 

The interaction between Karnatheon and randuir makes me think that they probably aren’t in a trusted doc together, because a newer player would feel more comfortable discussing what they should and shouldn’t do behind closed doors, so to speak. This doesn’t feel especially staged, so it’s probably not a coordination. So that means to me that of randuir and Karnatheon, only one of them is likely to be an Elim.

 

10 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

So I will be doing a more in depth analysis later, but just to get some discussion going, I'm going to be voting for  Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn/Ark1002. Unfortunately I don't see the button to change text color on mobile, so it technically won't count as a vote right now but at least gets my thoughts out there. 

As I stated on D1, I know Ark to be a very active member on the Shard. He has been at least somewhat active on other parts of the forum since the game has started. He has posted only two or three times in thread, with almost no discussion or contribution in those posts. I suspect he is probably more active than we know of, but that he is an elim and is active in their doc specifically. He may also be active in other docs but that seems less relevant. This is more of a gut feeling, with little to no evidence, since he has posted almost nothing like I said. With 12 hours left this turn(I believe), people should have plenty of time to debate this and refute it. As opposed to D1 where I made these points in the last hour of the turn.

9 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Ark1002

Justification: I agree with Karn in that he has only made essentially made posts that provide no real content.

There’s also the fact that he completely ignored his poke vote. It’s almost as if he knows he’s not in danger from the lynch

Reasonable suspicions, but make sure that you don’t bandwagon and don’t vote off him if he justifies himself. I do find Snipexe's last sentence a bit weird as far as tone goes.

However, as a counterpoint, wouldn’t it make more sense to vote for a complete inactive rather than someone who might be active later on?

 

9 hours ago, randuir said:

Karnatheon (slight village)

I'm still leaning village on Karatheon. A lot of his posts suggest 'observant new player' to me. He's made some good points and is generally involved in analysis, though he's focused mostly on the rules so far. That's fine in a game like this, but I expect him to start looking more at people soon. I've mentioned one of his first posts before as looking really village, and some of his posts to day feel similar to me. In particular I'd have expected his responses today to have been more calm and emasured if he actually ahd the safety net of an active elim team to back him up

I’m inclined to agree about this (hmm I seem to do that a lot with you), and I’m holding off any particularly strong analysis on him until I see him discuss people, because it’s much easier to spot an Elim when they’re analysing and accusing than when they’re thinking about rules. I think that we should keep in mind that if Karn has been suggesting rules discussion, that should be questioned if he turns out to be an Elim. With rules as complicated as these, it would be pretty easy to manipulate the people who are just going along with what others say.

 

9 hours ago, randuir said:

Mr Doctor (neutral)

 Good activity as usual from our Not-Dragon-Reborn Doctor. Believes that there are less more Elims than what Furami and I have theorised, which only stands out to me because in my (very few) Elim games I like to make the Village underestimate the number of Elims. So far he’s been helpful, but he’s like that even when he’s evil. For now I’ll give randuir Doctor a free pass because he’s hard to read and always helpful.

(all kidding aside, I've seen mr Doctor at work in his first game in which he and I where both elims. He's at least as sneaky as he'd have you believe I am)

Heh, that made me chuckle.

 

6 hours ago, Callsign: Jato said:

For now, I am going to keep pressing my vote from last cycle. I may change it after analyzing, but until he says more, my initial suspicion stands.

DroughtBringer

@Droughtbringer

(I will probably work out another sequence of how I think we should progress through the rings again today [unless someone beats me to it], but in the mean time, err on the side of keeping the ring alive.  This ring should be decently forgiving due the the amount of players we have.)

Lynching an inactive isn’t a terrible thing as far as I’m concerned. I used to hate it, but I’ve sort of become desensitised I guess.

 

5 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

This post is primarily focused on how the barrier distribution will work out. The most important thing they talk about (in my opinion) is that this game will last till night 8 at the latest. In order to win, in the next 7 (counting today) we need to lynch or kill 5 elims (6 counting Aginor’s Hardy). So as far as I can tell, we have 1 more mislynch, assuming Rand is not able to kill any Forsaken when he can channel. 

I can’t think of any reason why Devotary would be killed for this post or why it would raise the elim’s ire

I don’t disagree. Of the players doing heavy maths, Devotary was possible one of the more experienced, which may justify a kill. Or perhaps she simply gives off a Village tone.

 

@Ookla the Skeptical

Thanks for the analysis! It’s useful to see something breaking down people’s posts and trying to find reasons. Personally, I feel that Devotary is a pretty good and analytical player who naturally gives off a Village tone, and so the Elims would have a hard time framing her, especially since there aren’t as many lynches to go off of and voting patterns are easier to poke holes in. As a contrast to randuir, who is also analytical and helpful, but is far more neutral and so harder to read. It then makes some sense that she died. [[[Tag snip]]] what do you think of that? It might also be worth going through who she interacted with and finding connections that way.

 

4 hours ago, Ookla the White-Cloaked said:

5 hours ago, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Edit: @Ookla the White-Cloaked Does redirecting a defense action do anything?

It can be redirected. Whether or not it will do anything, PAFO. 

This makes me wonder if you can protect someone from a kill by Defending them. I don’t offer myself as a test subject, though

 

@Callsign: Jato

Gotcha about the Ring defence. Thanks for breaking this down, provided that you’re not trying to manipulate us to an early Eye of the World destruction.

 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Positive said:

OK, I went back to the night and found the post that made me suspicious. It was Young Bard's post, but now I just realized that it reads as suspicious because its in character. sigh. But at the moment I don't really have much else- I haven't been paying enough attention to know if that was purposeful, or whatnot, but I'm going to vote Young Bard.

I didn’t like Bard’s position because he attacked BR pretty suddenly and his RP hid a lot of what could be gleaned from it. And he’s been quiet ever since then. Lynching him would give us a bearing on BR, so I’m inclined to join you in this. I’ll see, though.

 

54 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

-So, despite typically being a math person, I actually haven't gone through and done all the math that other people have done regarding blight turns and how long we have before the game would just automatically end, but because there is a timer and people are thinking that it could be as soon as 8 cycles that the blight fully overtakes the eye, I'm going to just throw out there that I doubt there are 5 elims.  We'd almost be at LYLO at this point if that were the case (assuming the other math is correct).  *"queue, but an elim would say something like that to make everyone else underestimate the number of elims"*

I think that this makes a lot of sense. It makes me wonder if there aren’t actually any Agents of the Blight, but in that case there’s an entire mechanic (Sabotage and the last Ring of the Eye) that’s unused. This might also be reasonable because Fifth said that 20 players was the rough number to play at its fullest, which could either mean that it’s the lowest number that gets all of the unique roles for flavour (i.e. 3 Elims for the 3 book characters), or the lowest number for all of the mechanics (i.e. 1 of each Elim type).

 

45 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

Ark1002/Kidpen/Ookla the Dragon Reborn Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical

Now let me explain. I don't feel any less suspicious of Ark, I'm simply more suspicious of Snipexe. Padan Fain could have killed Snipexe last night. As Fifth said in his rulings/clarification compilation in the N1 thread, if Padan Fain uses his Shadow Within on a Hardy player who has already lost a life, that player dies. So if Padan Fain had done that, Snipexe would have died. Let me list the likely reasons that didn't happen.

Some really good points in here, and an excellent post for a new player. Well done!

I’ll talk about Snipexe because that’s the most pertinent issue, but I’ll want to respond to the rest if I have time.

Firstly, I disagree that Padan Fain would expect someone to come to your conclusion. That seems unlikely for an Elim to trust the Village to do their dirty work without a bit of prodding. The only person who’s mentioned that is you, and by drawing attention to it you’re either genuine, or you’re trying to seem TWTBAW (too wolfy to be a wolf). I don’t think that this is especially likely.

I agree that Fain would at least know that they can do this, because they would be paying attention to what their role could do. However, we have several inactives in this game and any of them could be Fain, so that possibility has gone down in my mind. I also think that Fain does exist, for what it’s worth.

The reason that I agree with it is because I think that you’re either a very valuable player to the Village, or a very dangerous one. And I think that the reasonings against Snipexe are better than those against anyone else, other than maybe Bard, even though they aren’t particularly strong. Since you’re one of the most active players in this game, I’d want to test your alignment and judgement over BR’s or Steel’s.

 

If I’m wrong about Snipexe, then I think that Karnatheon is likely to be an Elim. I doubt that they can do that much analysis and be that insightful and be so adamant about this, and yet be completely misguided. But I don’t think that they’d be willing to put their neck so far if they were an Elim, unless they think that they’re taking down Rand (no, not that Rand. Rand al’Thor).

 

Hmmm… Actually, I don’t think that I’ll vote for Snipexe. If the Elims know that he’s Hardy and have someone in the Fal Dara doc and know that he’s not in there, then they know that he’s Rand, and therefore the largest remaining threat to them. And the reason why Rand!Snipexe isn’t dead is because the Green Man can protect him every Night, saving him from Fain, assuming that’s how protection works.

@Ookla the Ring what do you think of that?

 

I think I’ll put my vote on Young Bard for now, because of his tone-hiding and mostly unjustified attack on BR. I’m also testing BR and Steel with this vote.

 

If someone from the Fal Dara doc claims that Snipexe is in there, then I’ll listen closer to Karnatheon. Until then, this suddenly looks a lot like the Elims potentially trading Karnatheon for Rand.

Okay, looking back through Snipexe's posts, I find that his tone has been a bit odd in places. His analysis of Devotary doesn't conclude much, which could mean that either he's trying to reduce the amount of analysis on a kill or there actually isn't anything to see.

Now, if Snipexe dies and flips Elim, then it clears Karnatheon, which in turn clears randuir somewhat because of the amount that they've interacted in-thread.

If Snipexe dies and flips Village, then Karnatheon was probably an Elim trying to kill Rand al'Thor. However, in this case, it might make it seem like randuir was an Elim because of a potentially staged discussion about misunderstanding and forgiveness. I know that this contradicts what I said earlier about that discussion, but that's because this has really thrown everything that I thought out the window.

 

Hmm, I'm still not sure about my vote. @Ookla the Unprepared if you're here, my mind might change with some justification.

[BrightnessRadiant]

19 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

They didn't seem to be overly suspicious of anyone, though I only did a fast reread so I may have missed something.

Honestly, that could be why they were targeted. It's good for the elims if people don't list suspicions because when they die there's nothing to look back on regarding that. So, even if you only have very limited suspicions then you should post them. It makes it harder for the elims to target people. It also helps people with reads. I know I personally usually go through and make lists of who I think might or might not be able to be teammates if one is evil depending on interactions. Lists like that have often helped me to narrow down suspicions and find elims as a group. 

 

8 hours ago, randuir said:

BrightnessRadiant (Neutral)

I actually like seeing BR's progression of thought from her second to her third post on my vote on SnipExe. It makes sense and seems logical to me why her stance shifted. I also don't see why elim!BR would have felt a particular need to go fro SnipExe over Bard (unless they're team-mates). Overall though there's a lof of psots by her wiht very little actual content, which bother me a bit. I'm keeping her at neutral so far and will be keeping an eye on her.

This is how we always feel about each other xD

Also, I was planning on doing a longer in depth post today about suspicions and rules etc but I had stuff come up irl and then spent a while finally reading over the rules really in depth.  Hopefully I can do as much catching up as possible before cycle ends. I don't mean for my posts to have little content, but that's probably on me for taking so long to really think about all the rules and roles. Last few posts have just been me rambling and trying to get a feel off the game. But I did try to tag a lot of people last cycle to promote discussion and figure out my reads better on people.

@Mark IV Sorry I didn't respond last cycle. I said I'd be active and then ended up getting caught up in other irl things. (aka the finale of Stranger Things 2 that I needed to finish xD) Yes, it is common for me to be very active regardless of my knowledge of the rules. I've always been the type of person who absolutely hates learning any kind of game rules. I must admit I put off trying to figure these ones out on my own for way too long. I just really don't like complicated rules and I did say I was going to try and give analysis on players rather than on the rules. Especially since up to that point most discussion had been about rules and strategy and not a lot of players posting analysis of other players. I tend to do that better and then like reading other player's posts on the rules cuz it helps me wrap my head around the rules better to understand how they work.

5 hours ago, Callsign: Jato said:

I felt suspicious (gut read) of BR before Bard's post, and even more afterwards due to her seemingly just brushing off Bard's post about her, like it didn't matter. But I looked back in the (only) other game I could find her in, and she did the same thing there as well when she was village, so I suppose I have a neutral stance on her right now.

I wasn't saying his post didn't matter? I don't think a 3 paragraph explanation in response to someone accusing me says that? I hope not, I'd feel bad if it did. I was merely trying to explain my reasoning and my posts that he questioned and seemed to feel strange on. Just giving him more clarity into what my thought process had been.

Also, I paused here and caught up on the rest of the cycle and since I quoted you I'll try and address other questions I had for you. I don't really understand why a villager would want Rand to claim in thread since losing him would be very bad for the village. There can be elims in the anon docs and if they find the Green Man then, as you said, then they could proceed to take out the Green Man and Rand one after the other. I don't know if an elim would have suggested this tho. It seems to risky. I'm not quite sure whether to read it as NAI or to lean village on you just for saying something that could be potentially dangerous because elims tend to avoid stuff like that. For now I'll keep it at NAI because it doesn't sound like a good thing to do for the village.

I also wanted to point out that you also said that you thought Devo was probably killed because they hadn't posted a lot of suspicions and that was my opinion too. I guess it's still NAI tho since even an elim could give a reason like that for why someone died. 

Not sure what to think about your action being redirected to Snipexe. If he was an elim then I'd think they'd not want him in the spotlight more than he already was last cycle. They would probably have known that you would reveal the redirect in thread or that there was a chance you might. That makes me lean slightly more village on Snipexe.

@randuir I'd really like to hear your theory on why Devotary was killed. I'll wait for it.:P

@Rathmaskal I'm a little confused on why you voted for me after saying that you'd be best served voting for one of the other players with a vote already on them? Especially when it was just a gut read and all it did was add another 1 to the pile. That doesn't really help anyone much? Rathmaskal

Also, we need to ensure early lynches because the elim roles get really powerful the later the game gets by what I can see in the rules. Summoning creatures doesn't happen until night 3 and Balthamel gets a roleblock after this turn I think? Or after Night 2. It's really important to find the elims quicker because of the roles in this game.

I feel like there's more I wanted to say but I kept having internet issues and having to switch between my laptop, phone, and actual paper. *gasp

[Karnatheon]

@Mr Doctor I believe that Rand!Snipexe would still die to Padan Fain. The order of operations listed in the rules doc has Fain going before Green man. And Fifth has stated that if someone is dead before protected, the protection fizzles. I think? Can I get some clarification on this @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

 

[BrightnessRadiant]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

@Mr Doctor I believe that Rand!Snipexe would still die to Padan Fain. The order of operations listed in the rules doc has Fain going before Green man. And Fifth has stated that if someone is dead before protected, the protection fizzles. I think? Can I get some clarification on this @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

 

How would he die? In the rules, it just says that Padan Fain basically cancels actions taken against someone and blocks their passive traits and abilities right? Doesn't say they have a kill or anything?

[Mr Doctor]

3 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

@Mr Doctor I believe that Rand!Snipexe would still die to Padan Fain. The order of operations listed in the rules doc has Fain going before Green man. And Fifth has stated that if someone is dead before protected, the protection fizzles. I think?

Hmmm that's a good point. Depending on the clarification, I might change my vote.

[Karnatheon]

Just now, BrightnessRadiant said:

How would he die? In the rules, it just says that Padan Fain basically cancels actions taken against someone and blocks their passive traits and abilities right? Doesn't say they have a kill or anything?

Snipexe was Hardy, which means he has an extra life. If Fain targets him, he loses the extra life, and dies. It's the one way that Fain could kill someone, since he can't normally kill.

[Snipexe]

Just now, Ookla the Ring said:

Snipexe was Hardy, which means he has an extra life. If Fain targets him, he loses the extra life, and dies. It's the one way that Fain could kill someone, since he can't normally kill.

Didn’t I already lose the extra life? Because I was lynched cycle 1?

[BrightnessRadiant]

Yeah so would that actually kill him then?

[Karnatheon]

Just now, Ookla the Skeptical said:

Didn’t I already lose the extra life? Because I was lynched cycle 1?

Fifth said that if Fain targeted someone that was Hardy that had already lost a life, the extra life would go away. In essence, you are currently living your extra life. So if you lose it, you have no lives.

[Karnatheon]

If Fain targets a Hardy player who has already lost one life, will that player die?

Unless Fain is roleblocked, yes.

See the bottom of page 4 of this 

[Rathmaskal]

15 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

 

@Rathmaskal I'm a little confused on why you voted for me after saying that you'd be best served voting for one of the other players with a vote already on them? Especially when it was just a gut read and all it did was add another 1 to the pile. That doesn't really help anyone much? Rathmaskal

I said that I would be best served by voting on one of the other candidates so far...not necessarily that the village would be.  I also said I didn't really agree with any of those votes so far and I'd be around to adjust if necessary.  Retaliation votes always strike me as rather...sketchy.

[Mark IV]

Mark here. I know this is a little late but Snip is part of the Fal Dara Doc. I can confirm.