Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Elandera]

17 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Who, me? I’ve never done anything unscrupulous in my life! Just ask @Ookla the Rogue.

 

 Neevvveeerrrrr......

[MetaTerminal]

28 minutes ago, Ookla the Heretical said:

Bard did claim before the game started that he planned to make the entirety of all his posts in character. While short, his post is in keeping with this prior claim.

10 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

I’m curious as to why MetaTerminal would go after Bard instead of Xino since their input is about the same so far.

No reason; I missed it. I also didn't read through signups if Bard claimed there. That is a reasonable explanation for their post; although I'd like to hear more from both. And in absence of any particular non-random suspicious candidates (I don't find any problems with Doctor's reads at this stage), I won't be changing my vote, unless anyone has objections to that.

Given that I may be busy with other projects in the future, I may join Radiant in sticking to largely player analysis, unless there is a dearth of rule-based extrapolation. Comments by Karnatheon and Fura have made me think that won't be a problem. 

13 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Also, I can't believe I didn't realise that your name was very close to being "phoenix" backwards.

You're not alone.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay cycle analysis!

Drought: rules are complicated, doesn't want to get in trouble for not knowing them before posting. (Dat me pal)

Fura: @Furamirionind

Quote

First of all, for the obvious observation: The Eye has 38 health currently.  Since it only has 30 base health, the rest of it's health must be (I assume) coming from Moiraine's Circle.  Meaning there should be 4 of them. If an elim is in that group, bussing that elim would actually be slightly less harmful to them than bussing others, as they would be taking 2 health off The Eye by doing so.
Assuming 5 elims , there should be 3 players (I think) with the "Concealed" ability. (I am assuming at least 1 of each role for story purposes)

 Okay, so why would it take health off the Eye? Don't we want the Eye to keep its health? Probably me sounding confused from not reading the rules correctly.

Also, I was assuming 5 elims as well because 3 base roles right? And then the blight or whatever? So probably around that number.

Concealed ability? *goes to read rules on that xD oh being in another doc? I did that before as an elim. It was hard. xD Randuir killed me. Looks at Rand >> Yeah definitely be careful about what you give away in there and about trusting each person in your doc completely. Like, if someone wants to go with the flow of what everyone else says in your doc then that may be a red flag since elims don't like to be pushy normally.

Bard: just a hi @Ookla the Unprepared hey

Karnatheon:

Cautions the role named Lan to be careful with their defending. I've seen this tactic used by villagers and elims so NAI for me

Randuir: seems like a risky tactic to let the rings fall as you suggest, but also sounds like it could be worth the risk. I think we should consider this idea. I need to look into it more. (Also, I keep having to edit your name from Rand to Randuir lol)

Mr Doctor: I thought the number of players was planned at 20? @Mr Doctor @Ookla the White-Cloaked was it not? Also, secret roles, hissssss.

Rand again: 5 elims seems about right tho? Cuz there are 3 known elim roles aren't there? I thought I read that in the rules and someone said so in the thread. Then wouldn't they need blight members? Could players be both? @randuir

Snipexe: already mentioned his post in my last post

Ookla the ring: yeah this was the post I read and that was what I assumed about the role distribution for elims and blight too.

Ookla the duck: (who is?...cadcom. Bless you Fifth, I just remembered the list is at the top of the cycle.) Checks in

Fura: role analysis (not always a huge fan of this unless the person is adding other useful analysis but they are and also this game is very role heavy so I feel like it's a good thing and helpful to everyone. Not sure if an elim wouldn't do it too or not. It isn't really alignment indicative but still nice lol.

Devotary: draws attention to the way the blight will affect the cycles. Isn't this kinda like best case scenario tho? If everyone is active and doesn't get blocked etc? @Ookla the Heretical

This is taking a while.

Kidpen: checks in

Fura: forgets we have a lynch? Not sure if that's alignment indicative in any way...just seems odd because they've been so active. Good that they are poking people to be active at least.

Steeldancer: checks in

Rathmaskal: poke votes on Xino (not really anything to say about this and they removed it later)

Rand: I kinda get his vote from this point in the cycle. He's not gonna be around and wants to lynch with the intent to kill so he picks the most likely elim type post. Makes more sense on my read through.

Xino and Rath: back and forth and Rath removes vote and says he'll be back with a real vote later.

Devotary: adds to the role discussion (NAI)

Karnatheon: aren't the forsaken and the blight in the same doc? Doesn't that makes them all have one kill as a group? Also I just noticed this when checking the rules. "The two Forsaken share this ability" I was assuming there was 3 elim roles for some reason. Apparently others thought that too, but it says there's only 2?

  also, you poke 2 people and soft accuse them of not being active enough and also agree with Rand on the snipexe vote but you haven't given any vote yourself. That feels like similar to why Rand voted on Snipexe. An elim tactic of poke voting and accusing but not taking a stand against anyone. Hmm this is your first game right? I'll wait to see more of your posts to vote because you have been really good at keeping discussion going.  

I almost lost all of this so I'm posting it before I continue. (This is all of page one posts for me on mobile)

Edit: to avoid a double post

So are we letting a random lynch happen? I never like skipping day one lynches and right now between the 2 choices I'd choose Snipexe over Bard.

Edited December 8, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay can't edit a vote in, so double post. >>

SnipExe(Ookla the Skeptical) 

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[Karnatheon]

Everyone coming through in the 11th hour huh? Or in this case the 23rd hour. Lots of stuff to ponder suddenly. The most recent need to respond is Brightness. In regard to the poke vote things, I knew I was going to be active for the rest of the cycle, so I didn't fear not voting in time. I was poking people without voting yes, specifically Ark1002/Ookla the Dragon Reborn/Kidpen. I have had actual interactions with him on other parts of the forum, and he admits he spends way too much on here because he is bored. I attempted to poke him into providing some discussion over just saying he enjoys anonymous games because I feel like I could get an actual read on him. He has been active on other parts of the site since then, and hasn't responded here, so I'm inclined to give him my vote. So Ookla the Dragon Reborn(Ark1002/Kidpen) 

He is the person I have the strongest read on currently, which admittedly is just gut reaction and not real analysis. I am hesitant to add another person with a single vote though, as that will make it more likely we will end up with no lynch. If things get down to the wire I will switch my vote to someone else to guarantee someone being lynched. Obviously the odds are going to be in favor of anyone getting lynched being village since there are more of them, but like people have stated even an incorrect lynch gives us information. Reading your edit I will be switching to Snipexe if it comes down to it, in order to have a lynch happen.

Yes, the Forsaken and Blight are in the same doc. I had some confusion as to who had access to the kill action, which Fifth cleared up.

------

Thank you Mr Doctor for the fantastic summary of people, as well as Brightness. It helps to have it consolidated.

As for the discussion of Snipexe. Droughtbringer, Bard, Cadmium Compounder, Ark1002, Ookla the Phoenix, Stink, and Hemalurgic Headshot all have about the same level of activity. Any reason you are more suspicious of Snipexe over them?

Edit: You(BrightnessRadiant) state in your first post on this page that you don't agree with the random vote on Snipexe, but then revert to voting on them.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[Furamirionind]

I have started spread-sheeting roles... But not players yet.  I probably have my priorities backwards.

I have a habit of copying other people's post formats for my posts, so I think I will continue that here:

DraughtBringer - the line "Go kill bad guys everyone!" rings strange to me. However, with nothing else to go on for Drought, this isn't much. (Especially since there was no character description, the message may have been made in a hurry)

Bard / Ookla the Unprepared - I see this post as basically a "check in" post.  Purely to show that Bard is online, but nothing else.  Therefore, I don't consider Bard any more suspicious than the others who just did "check in" posts.

Karnatheon / Ookla the Ring - Overestimating (possibly drastically) the amount of elims in a game is something that I seriously doubt an elim would do... Though granted, if people generally did overestimate the number, the outcomes (i.e. lack of info sharing, more willingness to lynch on less evidence) could still benifit the Elims.  Though I doubt this is likely from someone's first SE game.

Rand(uir) -   First post summarized some rules, with some minor analysis in there. There is a serious argument for there only being 4 elims (though I like to assume the higher possibility).  With the roles that have double lives, and Aginor possibly having three lives... The thing is, if the elims have 4, they probably have pretty much all the possible abilities.  With 5 elims, it is likely more balanced.  I personally don't like the fact that they said that I did "most of the mathing already".  The math part of my post was because I was starting to get into it, but this is a very math heavy game (like I already mentioned).  This could be an attempt to imply that people don't need to do the math.  Which would give the village a big advantage.  Though this could just be Randuir's way of talking as I haven't played a game with them, and from what I have read on the shard about them, they probably would not have made quite as obvious a statement if they were an elim.

Snipexe / Ookla the Skeptical - Basically a "Check in" post. Says we need to secure our lynches.  NAI I think... 
D1 is tough, as most things I am reading, with more info i would say is condemning, but NIA alone... And all these people have only made 1 post.)

CadCom / Ookla the Duck - Says they won't be active much.  Already gave notice, so doesn't mean much i think.

Devotary / Ookla the Heretical - Umm... I still haven't had time to thoroughly work through (double check) what the optimal progression through the rings would be. But until I have that time, *gives hesitant thumbs up to Devotary*.

Rathmaskal - Poke votes (joke votes?) on Xino. Basically just a check in I think.

Xino / Ookla the Phoenix - Check in.  I honestly have no idea how to analyse Xino after last game.  I think I may just let others try it.

SteelDancer - His post describes exactly how I felt immediately after the game started.  Took some time for the rules to sink in again before I was willing to make my post... So NAI.

MetaTerminal - I may have found MT suspicious with their vote on Bard because of the RP thing, but they took it off once they were told of Bards posting style for this game. So NAI.

STINK - Check in post

BrightnessRadiant - Well, I was going to mark your post as strange as you did player analysis without voting, but then you voted. 

Alright, I was ninja'd by: Mr. Doctor, Devotary, Elandera, MT, BR, BR (again), and now Karn. I tried to not ignore things in these posts, but it is hard constantly checking to see. (I haven't read Karn's yet)

 

@BrightnessRadiant the rules say that the Eye gets +2 health for each living member.  My interpretation of that is that if a living member dies, then there are fewer living members causing the amount of "+2 health bonuses" to go down.  In other words, the eye would lose health.

DroughtBringer is who I feel most iffy about right now.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Furamirionind
forgot to vote

[Karnatheon]

Since we're getting really close to the deadline, I'm just going to shift my vote now to make sure something happens. Again, my gut is saying Ookla the Dragon Reborn(Ark1002/Kidpen) is the correct choice, but I will switch to Snipexe. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[BrightnessRadiant]

7 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

As for the discussion of Snipexe. Droughtbringer, Bard, Cadmium Compounder, Ark1002, Ookla the Phoenix, Stink, and Hemalurgic Headshot all have about the same level of activity. Any reason you are more suspicious of Snipexe over them?

Edit: You(BrightnessRadiant) state in your first post on this page that you don't agree with the random vote on Snipexe, but then revert to voting on them.

Yeah I don't find his post overly suspicious, but the others have only posted to check in and his was the only one who followed that familiar pattern of elims who post to be active by stating things but not giving opinions on them. At first I found it not very alignment indicative as I stated but then on a second read through (as I said) I agreed more with Rand for why he made that vote. Between my choices to make a lynch go through for a cycle one lynch I'd guess that Snipexe is the better lynch seeing as so many people have discussed him.

3 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

BrightnessRadiant - Well, I was going to mark your post as strange as you did player analysis without voting, but then you voted. 

Alright, I was ninja'd by: Mr. Doctor, Devotary, Elandera, MT, BR, BR (again), and now Karn. I tried to not ignore things in these posts, but it is hard constantly checking to see. (I haven't read Karn's yet)

 

@BrightnessRadiant the rules say that the Eye gets +2 health for each living member.  My interpretation of that is that if a living member dies, then there are fewer living members causing the amount of "+2 health bonuses" to go down.  In other words, the eye would lose health.

DroughtBringer is who I feel most iffy about right now.

Well, I did say I wasn't finished with my analysis:P

Also, ooooooh okay. I get the health thing now. I thought you were saying the health would go down and that it would benefit the village so I was confused.

[Karnatheon]

Also, worth mentioning is the lurking happening by Rathmaskal and Amanuensis currently.

[BrightnessRadiant]

Also, @Mr Doctor

Were you saying you suspect Snipexe then? 

Edit: and if it's just when people vote then that works sometimes but not always seeing as I almost ALWAYS lead the final lynch in every game I play in each cycle because I tend to be on at rollover and like ensuring lynches no matter what alignment I am. It promotes discussion and analysis. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[Mr Doctor]

41 minutes ago, Ookla the Cited said:

No reason; I missed it. I also didn't read through signups if Bard claimed there. That is a reasonable explanation for their post; although I'd like to hear more from both. And in absence of any particular non-random suspicious candidates (I don't find any problems with Doctor's reads at this stage), I won't be changing my vote, unless anyone has objections to that.

That's reasonable. I'm not against your vote since Bard hasn't said anything much yet. Day One lynches can't really be based on much.

 

10 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

SnipExe(Ookla the Skeptical) 

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

My only thought was that it might have been notable that Snipexe pointed out how lynches are very affected by random chance. Don't know if an Elim would want to reveal that they know this if it would save them later on. Yeah, I don't really have enough to commit to that vote, but I don't really have a problem with it.

 

31 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Mr Doctor: I thought the number of players was planned at 20? @Mr Doctor @Ookla the White-Cloaked was it not? Also, secret roles, hissssss.

Ah, I forgot. Fifth's exact words were that 20 was the rough estimate to play this game to its fullest but there could have been more.

 

Quick vote tally, may have made a mistake

Votes:

Young Bard/Ookla the Unprepared (1) - MetaTerminal/Ookla the Cited

Snipexe/Ookla the Skeptical (3) - randuir, BrightnessRadiant, Karnatheon/Ookla the Ring

DroughtBringer (1) - Furamirionind

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

32 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Devotary: draws attention to the way the blight will affect the cycles. Isn't this kinda like best case scenario tho? If everyone is active and doesn't get blocked etc?

It is a best case scenario; the Blight is more likely to overcome the Eye by Night 7 or Day 8 than Night 8. If we go for a full scale defense I believe the progression I outlined earlier is achievable. It's essential for Rand to use his Strike action during the day when there are Creepers about, the Green Man should be protecting Rand at night to make sure he doesn't die, and Moiraine's abilities can be useful, but starting Night 2 when the Blight will likely begin to do damage, most other villagers will be best off submitting a defense action.

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Well, I did say I wasn't finished with my analysis:P

Also, ooooooh okay. I get the health thing now. I thought you were saying the health would go down and that it would benefit the village so I was confused.

And I did say that it was difficult for me to incorporate details from the posts that ninja'd me into my post.

I need get faster at typing my messages, I keep getting ninja'd... And if I said that the health going down would benefit the village, I would vote for my own lynch right now.  Luckily for me, that's not what I meant. : )

[Fifth Scholar]

As seems to be usual in SE, I give you 22 hours to kill someone and everything happens in the last 30 minutes.  Thankfully I can go ahead and announce this cycle closed. Writeup to appear in an hour or two! 

[Karnatheon]

And the wait begins. Interested to see how things turn out come the write up.

[Fifth Scholar]

Flanked by two of Agelmar’s soldiers, Callor trudged over the rocky ground, setting a brisk walk to keep up with the horses. The party was moving northeast, towards the Spine of the World, and the Light alone knew what lay behind their lofty peaks. Or within them. From what the witch in charge of the expedition had told them, she intended to march into the Blight and into the mountains! And yet how many still refused to believe that Tar Valon was in league with the Shadow? More likely, this “Moiraine Sedai,” as he was forced to address her, would drag the lot of them to the pits of Shayol Ghul as soon as lift a finger. Her Gaidin scanned ahead, as if watching for threats, but Callor sneered at his back. Threats! Ever since entering the fringes of this Light-forsaken land, the evil plants and creatures which the Warder has instructed him to stay away from, as if lecturing a small child, all but parted for the Tar Valon witch. The sorceress claimed it was the protection of the Light. Callor snorted. The day the Light protected an Aes Sedai was the day he threw down his sunbeam cloak and renounced Niall’s authority. And that would never happen.

Such were Callor’s thoughts as he strode briskly beside the Fal Daran escort. He should have been sweating, as spring was well-advanced, yet the world seemed locked in winter. Undoubtedly more of the witches’ meddling, or the Darkfriends. Though what was the difference? He kept his eyes on the road in front of him, determined not to trip in front of all the men.

And saw an odd creeper approaching.

Skirting the witch, as he had known it would, the Creeper took a winding path around her. A path, Callor realised with a start, that was headed directly for him. If the tales about it were true, a touch could kill. Yet he was too slow; the plant was locked in on its target. He drew his sword in a flash of steel, prepared to cut it down in a last act of defiance. As he raised the thin blade, an even thinner trailer of fire shot out of seemingly nowhere, cooking the Creeper to a crisp. He looked accusingly at Moiraine, beginning a protest that he was about to handle the threat himself, thank you very much. It died on his lips. The witch looked deeply disconcerted. Even from a distance, he could see her eyes, which darted between the ragtag villagers, an accusing glance for each. Callor felt a small satisfaction from that. If one of the witches was unsure as to what happened, it must have been a blow on behalf of the Light. Resuming his walk at a jaunty stroll, Callor hummed to himself, confident that even in the awful situation he had been placed in, the Light would prevail.

 

---

Exepins had hardly been a warrior in his past. A new recruit to the Borderland army, yet easily surpassing 40 years, he put his given history as a scribe to good usage for Lord Agelmar. Taxes, legal documents, decrees to announce, all had gone through him, somehow.

Now stuck with Moiraine Sedai as the company’s leader, Exepins had no choice but to continue his work. He found it peaceful, a more sedate job in a camp often filled with rush and noise. However, the quiet job began attracting rumours regarding his motives towards the others. Determined to execute their own justice, three men came to him, determined to find answers. “You, scribe,” one said, hands on hips.

“We didn’t see much of you at the barricades against the Blight, where we were talking about how to end this situation,” a second chimed in.

The third was the boldest, and surprised Exepins. They denounced him as a Darkfriend, without a scrap of evidence, and little consistency at all. “We have decided that your punishment for being a Darkfriend is death,” he finished, rolling up the “list of charges.”

Exepins’ head spun, and his head could hardly register the words the man was saying. However, his brief combat instincts kicked in. As the first man swung a heavy club in his direction, he ducked, letting it whoosh harmlessly over his head. The second club connected, unfortunately, bringing numbness, then blinding pain in the back of his head. From the crunching sound his head had made, his skull was likely cracked. It would be too late, all over…he slumped against the sickly rock wall, laying down.

The commotion summoned an irate Moiraine Sedai, fury etched into every line of her face. She stepped over Exepins to face the three men. Exepins squinted. In a corner of his brain, he could see and hear the three being berated, Moiraine’s ice-cold anger chilly enough to cleave through metal. However, the majority of his head simply ached. His vision was dimmer...Moiraine turned to him, kneeling and handling his head. A flash of cold washed through him from the Healing, then shivers. By the time those had abated, Exepins was already asleep. Asleep, but alive.

 

---

Night 1 has begun! It will end in 22 hours’ time at 22:00 EST, December the eighth. (If  I can convert correctly, that’s also 3AM GMT, for those that like converting off of its time.)

Snipexe was lynched! He was Hardy.

Vote Count:

Snipexe (3): randuir, BrightnessRadiant, Karnatheon

Droughtbringer (1): Furamirionind

Young Bard (1): MetaTerminal

The Eye has 38 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Outermost Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 5.

A Creeper of the Blight was stricken down. It has died and is no longer in the game.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

Player List:

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias
6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstream
10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy

13. Furamirionind (Callsign:Jato) as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother
16. STINK, a rug merchant from Tarabon peddling his wares in the Borderlands
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power
18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi, a crazy old lady 
19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Gancho Libre (Ookla the Libre) as Pummy'in Coach, a former sul'dam looking for a firm, guiding hand in life

Edited December 8, 2018 by Ookla the White-Cloaked
RP

[Karnatheon]

So, SnipExe was Hardy. That really doesn't help give any information about them. Except their possible roles. They could be Rand, a Fal Dara warrior, or Aginor. @Ookla the White-Cloaked is the description intended to give the impression that Snipexe is a Fal Dara warrior? Because based off of how it was written that's how I feel. Or was it just a write up and should provide no idea as to what their role is? It says he isn't a warrior, because he's a scribe, but then the actual "fight" seems to imply otherwise, kind of. Could be reading too much into it.

Edit: We also know that no vote manipulation happened, though with the 3 to 1 in favor of Snipexe it probably didn't make any sense to try manipulating anyway. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[Fifth Scholar]

The writeup is intended to be nothing more than fun RP for me, for you all to enjoy. No in-game clues are in the writeups, and if a writeup seems to imply something, it’s completely unintentional or coincidental, and you shouldn’t trust what it seems to be implying.

[Karnatheon]

Ok. I assumed that was the case I just wanted to double check. Thank you for the clarification. So we still don't know Snipexe's role, because he could be the main good guy, the main bad guy, or literally anyone.

[DeTess]

@Callsign: Jato, the reason I brought up you doing a lot of the math is that that is usually something I do in one of my posts, especially when I've taken the time to do some work beforehand (which is not the case this game), so I mentioned it to show why I would not be including something like that in my post.

SnipExe being hardy is tricky. If he's not Aginor, I can see the elims attacking him on the off-chance that he's Rand and the Green man is sleeping, but at the same time attacking him and finding him to be protected would pretty much guarantee that he's village. Perrin, I'd like to ask you to take careful consideration if you're considering protecting SnipExe, especially if he or someone else is asking you to in a doc you're in. Losing Rand would be a blow, yes, but I think it would be even worse if Aginor manages to pull of a wounded Gazelle Gambit.

Edit: Don't forget to send in your Defend actions! Also, for those that don't know, a wounded gazelle gambit is when the elims attack one of their own after ensuring that person is protected to get that person to be considered village.

Edited December 8, 2018 by randuir

[Mark IV]

Yeah, Hi guys. Sorry about my absence. Had a medical emergency in the family last night (Everything's alright now).
I've read through D1, and honestly, I have nothing to say. I'm horrible at getting reads off of D1 posts. In any case, I may not make another post today, although I will try to keep an eye on the thread. So if anyone wants to ask me something, go ahead (although I can't fathom what anyone might want to say to me at this time). 
I'll say something next cycle, I think.

[Karnatheon]

As people have said, the rules can be kind of confusing, so here is some recommendations. 

Village: If you have no other special action you want to take, make sure to defend. This current ring gives a chance at protecting you from the kill, so doing so benefits us as a whole and also nenefits everyone individually.

Mat: if you haven't already, you should make sure to pm someone during this turn. The odds are highly in favor of that person being village, and you can glean some useful information from it. I believe you are restricted to making a single pm to only one person, and that the gms should be included in it? Maybe some clarification on that @Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue

Perrin: As Randuir said, Snipexe might become a target of the elims this turn, unless they are elim themselves. So choose for yourself here I guess. They may also choose to avoid Snipexe now because they will suspect that they will be protected.

Moiraine: Again, this is mostly your call on who, or even if, you want to roleblock someone. The only one we know anything about is Snipexe, but even there we don't know much.

Lolial: I could be wrong, but I feel thst unless you have been contacted by Mat via pm you probably don't have a lot to communicate at this point. You obviously could choose to document your suspicions, but as the Blight is attacking for 5 tonight, defending may be a wise choice.

Green Man: It's probably always going to be worth it for you to protect Rand(the role jist to clarify, not Randuir). The single defend action you could give us probably isn't worth the chance of Rand dying so soon.

Emond's Fielders: Quiet Murmers reads like a passive, more so than an action. So if you all feel like you have something worth saying, go for it. Clarification that it doesn't count as an action?

@Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue 

I don't think we have any specific worries from the Forsaken this turn. Balthamel can switch someone's action to a different target, but unless they know a lot more than we do they should also be just as clueless as we are about roles. Same with Agents. They obviously have the kill, and sabotage, but nothing else too devastating as far as special actions. I was about to say something about Padan Fain being really dangerous because he could cancel someone's passives, buffs, and protections, then the elims could kill them. But rereading it I believe that would also protect them from the kill because it negates all actions taken against them, so he again isn't too devestating without knowledge of roles.

Just some thoughts and analysis on the roles in play, as we don't really have any more to go on from a player analysis perspective. To reiterate, if you aren't taking a different action, please be sure to defend this turn. We need as many defends as possible to make it through the night tonight, and the extra protection from the kill will be beneficial to everyone.

Edit: In response to wounded Giselle, if Snipexe is protected and is Aginor, that will be bad yes, because they will no longer be targeted by us for a while I assume. However, losing Rand almost guarantees we lose the game. We no longer have a way to kill Creepers, and we no longer have a Forsaken kill once we reach the eye. Worst case, if Snipexe does get attacked/protected tonight, and turns out to be Aginor, they could just be the first person Rand targets once we get to the Eye. Don't undervalue Rand's importance here. We'll quickly lose to Creeper overrun without him.

Edited December 8, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[DeTess]

The creepers actually slipped my mind there for a second when I made that recommendation. I've said before that we shouldn't count on Rand's anti-forsaken kill to still be around by the time all defenses are gone, but you're right that the creepers can be a big concern.

@Ookla the White-Cloaked @Ookla the Rogue, would you be informed if your action was redirected?

[Karnatheon]

I know that you are informed if you are roleblocked, so I assume the same for redirection.

[Fifth Scholar]

Y’all ask lots of questions.  This is a full list of all rules clarifications that have been issued since the beginning of C1 which can’t be found in the rules. 

Quiet Murmurs reads like a passive, more so than an action. Clarification that it doesn't count as an action?

From the rules:

“Except for the Forsaken/Agents group kill, roleblock, and Creature of Aginor summon, all group actions are done by vote in a doc, with the person or NPC unit with the most votes being the recipient of that action. These votes do not count as an action.”

So yes, no action is required.

I believe Mat is restricted to making a single PM per night to only one person, and that the GMs should be included in it?

This belief is correct.

Do the writeups reveal pertinent in-game information?

No, they do not.

Would you be willing to confirm that there is only one of each role?

There is at most one of each named character (Padan Fain, Rand, Moiraine, Green Man, etc.) and at most twenty of every other role (Emond’s Fielder, Warrior of Fal Dara, Agent of the Blight, Hardy, etc.).

Will excess damage to a layer of defence carry over to the next layer (or to the Eye)?

Yes, it will.

Would you be informed if your action was redirected or roleblocked?

Yes.

Are Roleless players part of the Light by definition?

Yes? There can be Agents with no special abilities other than their Agent-hood, though.

Is it theoretically possible for someone to be in 2 of the following: Moiraine's Circle, Edmond's Fielder, Fal Dara Warrior?

PAFO.

Is there any distinction in the write-up between someone surviving an attack due to a second life vs. do to a protect action?

Yes, you will be able to tell.

If a protect is successful, what will the protector and protected be told?

The protector will know their protect was successful; the protected will know they were protected, though not how.

When people die, are their roles and/or alignment revealed?

Yes. I’m not that much of a troll.

Are you able to confirm that there is at least 1 of each role? (not including roleless)

I cannot confirm that, as I am not giving away any secrets about distribution, and that would qualify as one, however minor.

Can Aginor and Balthamel take group actions for the Evil faction as well as the Agents of the Blight?

Yes.

Can the PMs Mat creates be used for the rest of the game, or just the following cycle?

The rest of the game.

When will NPCs get names?

When there’s enough that differentiation becomes necessary.

If Fain targets a Hardy player who has already lost one life, will that player die?

Unless Fain is roleblocked, yes.

Can Moiraine be in her own circle? Would she count as a full member, adding 2 health to the Eye?

She could, and yes, she would be a full member if she was in the doc.

You clarified in the rules that the Blight gains three attack each time it fails to destroy a layer of protection, but when it finally succeeds, will its attack then increase by one, i.e. 2-5-8-11-12-13..., or actually drop back down, i.e. 2-5-8-11-6-9?

The latter—it will return to its base attack.

Will we be told how much defense is provided to the eye each turn? Or how much damage was dealt after blocks?

No, you will not be told defence numbers (or sabotage numbers, for that matter). You will see the final amount of damage assigned, though.

If Padan Fain or an Agent are part of the Fal Dara Warriors doc, could they have an extra life?

They could. Rand or Aginor could have double extra lives as well, should they be Hardy Fal Dara Warriors.

Does this mean the two Forsaken also have the Concealment passive, allowing them to be in the anonymous docs?

Yes, the concealment ability applies to all Evil-aligned players. To be clear, however, the Sabotage action is not available to the Forsaken, but Concealment is.

Will we know if a players vote was affected by the 20% miss chance? Or will we just know 4 people voted for A. But B with 3 votes got eliminated instead?

The final vote tally will show negated votes like this:
Before=Joe (4): Wilson, Orlok, Maill, Elbereth
After=Joe (3): Wilson, Orlok, Maill, Elbereth
Votes modified as a result of Aes Sedai Persuasion will appear as the actual name of the player whose vote was redirected.

Also, is there a lynch every EVERY cycle or just day cycles? The rules say every cycle.

Cycles=48 hours, split into Day/Night turns. There is a lynch every cycle, on the Day turns. I’ve tried to be consistent with wording but knowing me I’ve probably slipped somewhere, so if you find an inconsistency please tell me. >>

Are there secrets in this game?

Secrets are possible. This includes secret roles, secret trolls, secret stoles, and secret moles. The first two are significantly more likely than the third, and the fourth really depends on the definition you use.