Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Mr Doctor]

Just now, Furamirionind said:

You "worry I have duped the village"? Your reasoning on voting for me is basically that of a revenge vote... I did analysis that most people thought valid on Drought, so accusing me on that case is based solely on the result and not what brought me there. Analysis of the rings is something that needed to be done, you will notice that I also have been consistently talking about players this game, just as much, if not more than I talked about the rings. 

This accusation sounds desperate to me... Like you think the game will end if you die... Is this true?
If you are the Green Man, you should role-call, as you are close to getting lynched, and it will buy us 1 extra cycle with Rand.

I voted on Drought because I was willing to trade him for information about you, since you're an active player and I wouldn't want to vote on you without anything more substantial. Since you've been focusing on him since very early in the game and he turned out to be a Villager, and you've had suspicions of me and I'm a Villager, I think that it's worth lynching you.

I suppose I am desperate, since convincing the Village to lynch you is my greatest chance of survival. I don't believe that the game will end if I die, and I'm not sure what you're implying by that question.

I'm not the Green Man.

Lynching me is a mistake, but that's what anyone in my position would say. For reference, when I flip Village, this is the order of priority that I think people should be looked at, and the reasons for the suspicions that I have against them:

1. Furamirionind - focusing on Villagers
2. Mark IV - mostly just a gut read here, but claiming Elim sounds weird, and something I would do if I wanted to have some fun with the Village
3. Amanuensis - seems genuine to the point of staging it
4. Sart - hasn't provided many reasons for his votes and has been skimming a level of activity where an Elim would best hide
5. A Joe in a Bush - has been voting based on what other people say, and his "I'm not an Elim" post doesn't sound very good to me
6. Karnatheon - tunneled hard on Snipexe earlier in the game but has been acting Village for everything else
7. CadCom - not much to say here, so he's right in the middle
8. randuir - has been acting neutral or Village, but I think that it'll be devastating if randuir is an Elim
9. Steeldancer - cleared by being attacked and surviving

 

Votes:

Mr Doctor (4) - Steeldancer/Ookla the Positive, randuir, A Joe in the Bush, Furamirionind

Furamirionind (1) - Mr Doctor

[Furamirionind]

5 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Furamirionind - focusing on Villagers

The players I have focused on are Drought, BR, Sart and you. I targeted Randuir last cycle, but only to draw out an elim (which I clarified at the end of the cycle to make sure Randuir didn't get lynched if I died). If Randuir is an elim, I am giving up the game right now lol. 

Ugh, I don't really want to vote on you now, but I think it is between you and Karn for being elims... You I am suspicious of, Karn not so much... I will be doing a lot of analysis on Karn in the time I have before rollover.  I will also be watching for other people's reasonings for stuff...

[Karnatheon]

I don't have a lot of time tonight to dedicate to the game. Playing D&D and just checking in during lulls in the action.

[Fifth Scholar]

The Day is over! Results to come in an hour or two. 

[Fifth Scholar]

Moiraine Aes Sedai her quick rise did devise
With her wise allies to organise, scrutinise
The Tower as filtered through disguised eyes and spies
Which would be synthesised while Siuan supervised

Moiraine Aes Sedai her journey revitalised
Through the cries of the dying she came to realise
Her knowledge of the world she would need to apprise
To her allies still fighting the Father of Lies

Moiraine Aes Sedai her demise traumatised
Still missing Lan’s eyes to watch and scrutinise
For possible threats that may rise from dark spies
She was pulverised, died, ending her wise advice

---

Night 6 has begun! It will end in 23 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT, December the 19th.

Mr Doctor was lynched! He was Moiraine! (I’ll let him explain to you how that equates with him being a severed Warder. I’m not trying to do that. )

Vote Count: 

Mr Doctor (4): Steeldancer, Randuir, Joe, Furamirionind

Furamirionind (2): Mr Doctor, Sart

The newly summoned Creature, Rathwearsa Mask, was attacked! It died. There are no more Creatures left! (For now)

The Eye has 32 health remaining. No rings of defence are remaining. Rand al’Thor’s Channeling, and Loial’s Treesinging, have been unlocked. The Blight is currently attacking for 11.

A correction has been made: Lan was a member of Moiraine’s Circle. I noticed I had not informed the thread when going through last cycle’s writeup, so my apologies if this affects anything too much. I just haven’t been a very on-top-of-things GM this game, which I apologise for.

A new Creeper of the Blight has appeared: Plague! It will Send Runner D8 unless stopped. Jadis is still alive, and will Send Runner N7 unless stopped. Nailicis and Nogard are still alive, and will Send Runner tonight unless stopped. Screwtape has Sent Runner, and is now dead.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit Roleless
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies Lan Moiraine’s Circle

9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will Warrior of Fal Dara

11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills Roleless

15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother Emond’s Fielder; Fal Dara Warrior
16. A Joe in the Bush as Joseph, a man who has mastered the art of squeezing into very small spaces in bushes

17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle

18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi Balthamel

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai Moiraine

20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

[Furamirionind]

wow, I keep thinking I am taking educated risks, I narrow it down to 2 roles, and then I consistently get it wrong on the last 2...

Rand now has his action to kill a forsaken... We all need to defend all out to maximise this game now... The only people who shouldnt defend are Green man and Rand.  I think Mat should defend at this point, unless they have a PM network, then target Steel or someone that you think you can confirm the alignment of. 

Again, I don't have time... I should have some time right before I go to bed.

[CadCom]

Well... dang it. I had started writing a post in which I was going to vote for Fura before the cycle ended, but then the cycle ended, and I hadn't finished the post. 

So we now have a couple of things that are new. Rand can finally do alignment attacks, so hopefully he can hit elims. But even if he misses, it doesnt hurt the village. 

I suppose that would be a good way to check Fura's alignment. If Rand sees this, he would possibly he a good person to attack. Or maybe aman or mark. Any one have other suggestions that they believe are the among the most important to scan? 

I've got a couple of other thoughts, but they're going to have to wait until tomorrow, because I'm running out of time and on mobile.

Edit. Ninjad by Fura.

Second edit. The problem with the rand attack is that rand shouldn't role claim in my opinion. So we would all have to just assume that he did attack the person that was discussed in thread if no one else died. 

Edited December 19, 2018 by Ookla the Duck

[Steeldancer]

Sorry Doc  I was wrong about you. That lynch was very much on me. I'll have to reconsider my suspicions, as I really was convinced he was an elim... 

[Steeldancer]

So, nobody has posted in a while, so I'm just going to do a little double post here because I have some things to say. 
I have suspicions. For reasons, I'm not going to share them. The village should still be able to win this game. Specifically, I've done a bunch of whittling down of who the Emond's fielder could be, and I have it narrowed down to only a few individuals. Hopefully, cross referencing that with information on knowledge of WoT should help (like, What was the very awesome action scene that took place in Crossroads of Twilight?). Also, while I just realized that I had no idea what was up with Cadmium Compounder, I'm honestly lead to believe that he's village right now. Other than that, I'm going to withhold most of my thoughts until the day, where I have an idea of who we should lynch next. Hopefully, by me being vague, the elims will start sweating in their little hidey holes. 

[Furamirionind]

I am going to have a lot less time this turn than I wanted. I may have some time during the day turn, but it depends on if my cousins come back to my house after work.

I want to point out that I will fail almost literally any WoT test. I am saying this outright as I dont want anyone possibly waiting on my response. I only read halfway through, and barely paid attention to what I read...

Also, please remember that Rands attacks are only effective on Forsaken. Which means aginor.

Loial should be the singing each night... it is basically a double defend.

[DeTess]

Okay, I'm really lost now. Either the elim team is only 3 people, or it's something ridiculous like Cadcom, Furami, Karnatheon and Steeldancer.

I might have time for some more analysis later this cycle, but I can't promise anything.

[Amanuensis]

Hey everyone! Just woke up after a long day of flying and I’m officially EST so I’ll actually be active when most others are. Yay.

Less yay is us lunching Moraine  I cant say for sure but it I had the chance to be more active I think I would have kept pushing the thing I noticed yesterday regarding Steel. That was a pretty good sign of alignment imo

Okay so if I’m reading this Rand thing right, he can only kill Forsaken, right? Normal agents of blight are immune? If so, there should only be Aginor left. Mark and I can’t be him because we are Fal Dara Warriors, Randuir can’t be because he is an Emmonds Fielder. Steel is clear unless they intentionally attached Aginor to throw us off.

That leaves Furam, Karn, CadCom, Joe and Sart. Should we vote on who Rand attacks?

[DeTess]

@Amanuensis, Anyone can have multiple roles. Aginor could, for example, also be a Fal Dara warrior, an Emond's Fielder and be in Moiraine's circle. For example, Both Devotary and Ark had multiple roles.

Edit: also, completely forgot to mention this; Happy Koloss head-munching day everyone! What do you all think is the best sauce to serve Koloss head's with?

Edited December 19, 2018 by randuir

[Amanuensis]

14 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Amanuensis, Anyone can have multiple roles. Aginor could, for example, also be a Fal Dara warrior, an Emond's Fielder and be in Moiraine's circle. For example, Both Devotary and Ark had multiple roles.

Edit: also, completely forgot to mention this; Happy Koloss head-munching day everyone! What do you all think is the best sauce to serve Koloss head's with?

Well that complicates things wonderfully  at the very least I thought Forsaken couldn’t have multiple roles

Edited December 19, 2018 by Amanuensis

[DeTess]

You actually had me doubt myself for a second, but I looked it up:

Quote

Does this mean the two Forsaken also have the Concealment passive, allowing them to be in the anonymous docs?

Yes, the concealment ability applies to all Evil-aligned players. To be clear, however, the Sabotage action is not available to the Forsaken, but Concealment is.

 

[CadCom]

@Fifth Scholar Just a formal notification that I have changed my name back to it's original name, Cadmium Compounder, as opposed to Ookla the Duck. 

[Fifth Scholar]

This cycle will be extended 24 hours, to end Thursday 20 December at 21:00 EST, or Friday 21 December at 2:00 GMT. Mainly, church and family coming over tonight have left me too busy to conduct rollover fully, and Elandera is also occupied. I hope this does not inconvenience anybody, and I apologise for the short notice-- I would have posted earlier had I remembered. As such, you should all have plenty of time to get orders in

[Steeldancer]

Welp then. 

[Amanuensis]

I'm grateful for the extension. With another death happening tonight and the low numbers we have already, it would be very good to discuss the state of the game. Especially since I don't expect to live much longer.

EDIT: 14 hours later there's no discussion. Just because there is no lynch tonight doesn't mean we should be silent guys. Who do we want Rand to try killing.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Amanuensis

[DeTess]

Alright, I don't have time to do an in-depth review, but I can do a quick review of who I'd prefer role!Rand to hit. As I've said before, I consider Steeldancer, cadcom and Furami pretty much cleared (in that order from most to least cleared).

IIRC we also know, or at least heavily suspect, that Aginor has been somewhat active (I remember someone claiming to have lost their vote while they forgot to defend, but I can't find it now), so Aginor is probably not among the low activity/pinch-hit players, leaving Amanuensis, Mark IV and Karnatrheon. Of these 3 I'd be most suspicious of Mark IV and least of Karnatheon, so I'd like to see Rand hit Mark IV if at all possible.

[Amanuensis]

4 hours ago, randuir said:

Alright, I don't have time to do an in-depth review, but I can do a quick review of who I'd prefer role!Rand to hit. As I've said before, I consider Steeldancer, cadcom and Furami pretty much cleared (in that order from most to least cleared).

IIRC we also know, or at least heavily suspect, that Aginor has been somewhat active (I remember someone claiming to have lost their vote while they forgot to defend, but I can't find it now), so Aginor is probably not among the low activity/pinch-hit players, leaving Amanuensis, Mark IV and Karnatrheon. Of these 3 I'd be most suspicious of Mark IV and least of Karnatheon, so I'd like to see Rand hit Mark IV if at all possible.

Speaking of Mark and I, I also support him getting checked. I was thinking that it's very unlikely for an elim to be in Moiraine's Circle by this point. Of all the groups it seems the most important to kill, and to kill them quickly. Without one there, it becomes more likely for one to be in the others. We know about an elim fielder, and I know that I'm village, so that just leaves Mark.

[Furamirionind]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

Speaking of Mark and I, I also support him getting checked. I was thinking that it's very unlikely for an elim to be in Moiraine's Circle by this point. Of all the groups it seems the most important to kill, and to kill them quickly. Without one there, it becomes more likely for one to be in the others. We know about an elim fielder, and I know that I'm village, so that just leaves Mark.

I don't think Moiraines Circle is as much of a roadblock for the elims as you assume. I wouldn't assume there isn't an elim purely because they haven't been targeted. Perhaps going after Moiraines circle would reveal the elims too much.  There are only 2 people left in Moiraines Circle now anyway.

[Mark IV]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Speaking of Mark and I, I also support him getting checked. I was thinking that it's very unlikely for an elim to be in Moiraine's Circle by this point. Of all the groups it seems the most important to kill, and to kill them quickly. Without one there, it becomes more likely for one to be in the others. We know about an elim fielder, and I know that I'm village, so that just leaves Mark.

Your logic has been sounding more and more one sided so far. Most of the arguments you made based on the fact that I'm part of the Fal Dara doc can be made against you too. But, you state them as if when I'm checked, then there'll be no need to check you. 

This is the same kind of odd phrasing that rang alarms for me in your earlier post too. It's unnerving me more and more. 

Also, you've yet to reply to my last post I think? (That, or I just missed your post, which I don't think I did)

Honestly, I don't think Moiraine's circle is as big of a threat to the elims as the Fielders are. The Fielders can kill Creatures of Aginor, which are, in my opinion, the strongest weapon in the Eliminators' arsenal. In contrast, Moiraine's circle can easily be countered by simply prolonging the amount of time the Barriers hold up. If the blight is already doing a high amount of base damage, and if the number of players are low, the blight will quickly tear through the eye and Rand won't have much of a chance to use his ability as compared to if the blight had gotten there earlier. 

So, yeah. I think I'm shifting my opinion of Aman to neutral for now. 

 

Also, yeah. I'd be up for being scanned. It'd certainly be help in the future.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Mark IV
Autocorrect made an "is" into an "isn't".

[Amanuensis]

53 minutes ago, Mark IV said:

Your logic has been sounding more and more one sided so far. Most of the arguments you made based on the fact that I'm part of the Fal Dara doc can be made against you too. But, you state them as if when I'm checked, then there'll be no need to check you. 

This is the same kind of odd phrasing that rang alarms for me in your earlier post too. It's unnerving me more and more. 

Also, you've yet to reply to my last post I think? (That, or I just missed your post, which I don't think I did)

Honestly, I don't think Moiraine's circle is as big of a threat to the elims as the Fielders are. The Fielders can kill Creatures of Aginor, which are, in my opinion, the strongest weapon in the Eliminators' arsenal. In contrast, Moiraine's circle can easily be countered by simply prolonging the amount of time the Barriers hold up. If the blight is already doing a high amount of base damage, and if the number of players are low, the blight will quickly tear through the eye and Rand won't have much of a chance to use his ability as compared to if the blight had gotten there earlier. 

So, yeah. I think I'm shifting my opinion of Aman to neutral for now. 

 

Also, yeah. I'd be up for being scanned. It'd certainly be help in the future.

I mean, of course it's one sided. I know what I rolled, I don't know what you did, and I have no problem with being targetted by Rand other than the fact I know it's a waste of a turn. If I assume the Fal Dara doc is compromised then I know it's you, and sure, it's flawed logic from anyone else's perspective. My point in saying it isn't to convince anyone, it's just thoughts running through my mind based on what I think and know.

That all said I'm not sure what other post you're referring to. I think I replied to everything though.

[Furamirionind]

39 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I mean, of course it's one sided. I know what I rolled, I don't know what you did, and I have no problem with being targetted by Rand other than the fact I know it's a waste of a turn. If I assume the Fal Dara doc is compromised then I know it's you, and sure, it's flawed logic from anyone else's perspective. My point in saying it isn't to convince anyone, it's just thoughts running through my mind based on what I think and know.

That all said I'm not sure what other post you're referring to. I think I replied to everything though.

With how this argument between the two of you has been going, I am inclined to think that one of you is probably an elim… However I do think it is flawed logic to assume the doc is compromised. I have assumed in my role analysis that there is an elim in Moiraines circle, but that is because, as a game mechanic, it would be interesting to see the elims decisions, as at a certain point, perhaps the player should be sacrificed to deal more ring damage. As far as the village goes, would the village be willing to keep a known elim alive to prevent damage to the ring? There are situations where these strategies could be taken into account, and that is why I think there would be one in Moiraine's Circle, game mechanic.

As far as the warriors, why would you assume there is an elim in that doc? With 3 docs, it doesn't make sense to assume there is an elim in there "just because". There is a very good chance that at least 1 doc doean't have an elim. Not more of a chance that each doc having an elim, but just as much of a chance.

EDIT:

@Amanuensis:

Quote

If I assume the Fal Dara doc is compromised then I know it's you, and sure, it's flawed logic from anyone else's perspective.

What about your perspective makes it so obvious there is an elim in the doc?

Edited December 20, 2018 by Furamirionind