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7 minutes ago, Ookla the Duck said:

Hey all! I've been keeping up on a little bit of the discussion, but I havent had time to do a proper analysis yet as to what's going on. If someone could post a vote count for me, thatd be great.

Other than that, I'm leaning towards voting fordrought this cycle, but only based off the analysis of others unfortunately. 

The discussion about Mark and Aman is kind of interesting, and I'll look more into it, but most likely not today due to time restraints. 

As of right now, Droughtbringer is the only one with votes (2) from Furamirionind and Mark IV. Regarding Mark, I'm personally not going to vote for him today anyway because he lives in India so it's crazy he's awake at all and I'd rather him get a chance to respond fully, especially after the exchange we had in the Warriors doc after my post against him.

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Duck said:

I actually just did the vote count. I think this is accurate...

Droughtbringer (2), fura, mark. 

Did I miss anything?

 

1 minute ago, Furamirionind said:

Currently the vote stands as such:

Droughtbringer (2): Fura, Mark

That is it.

@Amanuensis would you prefer we vote for Mark rather than Drought? That is what your post would imply... yet you cast no vote? We are getting late into the cycle, with 3.5 hours left I think.

Ninja'd by two people responding, ahhh! Let me finish!

AND THERE'S ANOTHER! KARN!

7 minutes ago, randuir said:

I've done a quick reread of Aman's posts, and something stood out to me. It's already been mentioned that his lack of knowledge of the elims doesn't really clear him because BR was affecting the same lack of knowledge. However, with an elim doc at her back it was almost certainly a planned affectation (maybe not at first, but definitely a couple of cycles in) rather than actual lack of knowledge. Elim!Aman would have known that she'd done that, and I think he probably wouldn't have tried to use the same excuse after BR got lynched. Key word here being I think. As Aman could ahve gone through the same steps of reasoning I just did and then did it anyway to try and look innocent if someone came to this conclusion (We're what, 2 levels deep into an IKYK now?).

I really wish Aman had been more active before, because then I would have a couple of cycles of voting pattern to look back through to get a better idea of where he stands. Right now, he's either Honest!village!Aman or Elim!Aman and I can hardly tell the difference when he's been very active and I'm fully awake, let alone right now.

A vote will follow once I've had a shower and had some more time to think it over, but I'm leaning towards Drought right now. If we're not at Lylo it could actually shed some light on Aman and Mark whichever way he flips (Elim!drought looking worse for Aman as he seems to be angling for an alternative lynch, while village!drought would look bad for mark).

I'm sorry about not being more active. I probably could have found more time to get online when I wasn't preparing for my Finals, but I kept telling myself I'll sit down and do some work later and later never really came.

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4 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I think defending is the best course of action. We've only managed to lynch 1 elim, so the more day turns we get the better I feel. I could be wrong though. Worth noting, since we took out Balthamel, there is only 1 Forsaken left. So Rand's channeling will have less of an affect once we lose the Rings than anticipated.

Good point... we ultamately want to kill an agent of blight this lynch, not aginor/padan fain. Assuming Padan fain exists, if we hit the agent, the forsaken now has to choose whether to attack or summon, rather than doing both. If we hit aginor or fain, they have at least 1 more cycle they can do both.

Ninja d aman

@Amanuensis any thoughts on intentionally not voting, and defending to test your allignment?

Edited by Furamirionind
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Just now, Amanuensis said:

I'm not entirely sure what you mean.

My bad... just double checked the rules, and it wont mean anything:

Quote

The Sixth Ring: While this level is being defended, Light-aligned players cannot be roleblocked or have their votes negated. Has 6 health.

We would be asking Moiraine to manipulate your vote to test your allignment... but I forgot that it was specific to vote negating, and has nothing to do with Moiraine's manip.

Nevermind.

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Okay, well, It's probably too late in the cycle to be able to say much in my defense, but I guess I'll try anyways.

Actually... All the points brought up against me are fairly valid. Although I have tried to visit the thread decently often, I haven't been nearly active enough to go back through and piece together the thoughts from my different posts, and what I was thinking at the time. 

I did a quick skim through of posts from @Furamirionind and one of his first posts stood out to me, specifically this part (Also I have no idea how to link posts like Aman did)

Quote

I don't think there are many roleless in this game for that reason @Mr Doctor. All of the unique roles have some very powerful actions. Rand can kill any blight creature, Perrin can protect, Lan has the double blight "protect"... etc.  Loial isn't very powerful until we reach the eye, then he gets an ability that could give us up to 2 more turns in the game... so pretty good.  A roleless person just seems really outclassed to me.  It definitely does imply that the unique roles could be in the Doc Groups. As Moiraine is strictly disallowed from being in Moiraines Circle.

- Furamirionind 

This implies, to me at least, that Fura has some sort of a role, and was talking with others who did. This was posted during day one, and me, being a role-less guy, made the assumption that there were relatively few Roles in the game.

I don't know if Fura is good or evil, simply that he probably has a role. I'd suggest that people look back through his posts and try to get a read on him, if he reads as village then try to keep him alive, if he reads as elim then kill him fast. 


Gah! That doesn't even sound like a good defense to me! That's fun. No matter what I tried, this game hasn't made much sense to me, so I apologize guys. Good luck catching the elim(s), and may the Gods of Luck and Chance favour you all. Heading off to a family party, so I'll be off for the rest of the cycle. Sorry for not being more active, and may my death provide you with some useful information! Good luck!

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13 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

My bad... just double checked the rules, and it wont mean anything:

We would be asking Moiraine to manipulate your vote to test your allignment... but I forgot that it was specific to vote negating, and has nothing to do with Moiraine's manip.

Nevermind.

Ah, okay.

So there's two reasons I'm wary about voting for Mark right now. In the past there's been instances of changing a lynch to a player who's not available towards the end of day turn and upsetting them because they didn't have a chance to defend themselves, so I'd like to extend Mark that courtesy. The other is while I was working on my big post about him, he posted in the warrior doc that he is an eliminator. After I posted it and found his comment, I laughed about how I just worked hard trying to figure out his alignment only for him to just straight up admit it, and then I expressed happiness about successfully finding an eliminator. Then he says he isn't actually a Darkfriend and that wanted to see what I'd say in return, and that he thinks I'm good because if I was evil he thinks I would have claimed back. I don't really think it's good reasoning for him to trust me, but I don't really understand why, if he were evil, that he'd claim so and take it back immediately. So really I'm just kind of confused and want to see what he says.

6 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

(Also I have no idea how to link posts like Aman did)

At the top right of every post is a < looking symbol that when clicked provides a link directly to it. Just paste that link into your reply and it'll make it look all fancy like.

 

Edited by Amanuensis
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Well, now Drought's response has activated my pity.

It sounds like he's yielding, and I hate lynching players who just give up. I'm not blaming Drought here, since I'm not 100% knowledgeable in the rules either, but its an occurrence that bothers me. Unfortunately, I doubt that this is a ploy to remove our votes on him.

I don't want to get involved in the Mark - Aman spat, for reasons voiced by several player before me. However, we need to lynch someone today! Every chance to catch an Elim, we should take it! Of course, that line of thinking can get dangerously out of hand, but alas.

Droughtbringer.

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@Amanuensis, don't worry too much about not being very active due to real-life constrains. I understand that and it has been undermining my own ability to really contribute these last few cycles as well. I'm afraid I'm going to commit to the Droughtbringer vote. I don't have the time to do much of my own research, and Drought had been rubbing me wrong before.

To quickly restate the case as I see it: He's a likely candidate for the False fielder and he's posting regularly, but has very little in the way of actual analysis (IE: he seemed somewhat active, but didn't really contribute (aka: flying under the radar)). This isn't that strong a case, but it's more than I've got on a lot of other people right now.

In addition to the reasons for suspicion, his lynch could also help shed some light on the Mark vs Aman situation depending on how he flips.

I should have time to do a thorough analysis past next day-cycle if we're still in the game then, and hope to be of more use then than I'm being now.

Edited by randuir
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Furamirionind

Has been one of the most active players. He’s also been focusing pretty hard on Drought since very early in the game. I think that Drought’s flip would tell us a lot about Fura, and losing an active player over a less-active player is probably a good trade. So I don’t really oppose this lynch. Additionally, his logic against Drought is sound, so I’m willing to support it to see what happens. Furamirionind is either a great asset to the Village, or he’s infiltrated extremely well. I think that Drought’s flip will tell us more.

 

Karnatheon

Another active player. Believes that randuir is Village and has done a lot of analysis of the action economy and negation. All of his suspicions seem reasonable so far, or at least they have good justification behind them. He seems genuinely helpful and is pointing things out that an Elim would benefit from simply ignoring. I think that I read Village on Karn.

 

Rathmaskal

Focused on BR earlier than others, which is notable, and claimed to have had his vote negated. It’s possible that this was an attempt by the Elims to clear him, especially on an already-confirmed vote against a Villager, but I’m not sure. It could also be the Elims trying to make things seem like that. Implied that people claiming their doc in-thread was a bad idea, and I think that this is an example of something that an Elim could just not state in order to sabotage the Village further. So far Rath hasn’t really done anything particularly egregious, but he also hasn’t done a great deal to redeem himself beyond focusing on BR.

 

Droughtbringer

Probably the strongest candidate for an Elim at the moment, because as has been pointed out he’s made a few posts, most of which don’t say much. This could imply enough activity to put in actions and maintain some presence but not enough to draw attention to himself. Additionally, voting on BR is an efficient way to get read as Village for lynching an Elim, even if that teammate was already doomed. Fura’s logic against him is sound, and I’m willing to see what happens and what that means about Fura.

 

Amanuensis

Now become active, which is good to see. Opposed the lynch against Fura, and also has some suspicions of me. I’m not entirely opposed to that, as any suspicion is healthy in this game. I’ll look forward to his reasoning. He was the one to start off the MetaTerminal vote, and recognised that fact, which is fishy but not impossible for a Villager to do. He retains suspicion of me through a second post, which is good to see because it’s not just throwing suspicion out there in the hopes that it forms a lynch. Has doubts about the Drought lynch, at least with the initial suspicions, which is reasonable. He suspects Mark for strange behaviour and for ‘claiming’ in the Warrior doc, which is an odd thing to say but I think that it’s worth waiting to see what Mark says until I decide on anything conclusive for these two.

 

I'd say that Droughtbringer is the best candidate for a lynch. Mark isn't here and Drought's lynch will tell us about Fura, which is very useful.

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Hello Everyone, glad to be here. It is going to be a while before I have fully crunched through the previous 4 days of game play, but I’m working on it. I don’t suppose a few of you could give me a player and/or game recap could they? (That way I can compare your recap to the game and see what you are trying to influence me to believe.) Also, if STINK PM’d anyone or claimed anything, can someone inform me about it?

I’ve only read through Today’s thread and the rules so far, but I’m going to toss a vote on  [ Mark ], due to what Aman said about the Fal Dara doc. I don’t feel like an Eliminator would bring up the possibility of an eliminator being in a doc that only had 2 people in it, as that would get him killed as soon as Mark died. I also don’t want to vote on Drought before I’ve actually read through the game. My vote on Mark won’t kill him this round, but Drought will.

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Ok, I promised analysis, and here it will be. I'll type this up as I look through the thread, so I can give my thoughts on posts and whatnot. Given that I haven't been really paying attention, I should also be able to give a pretty fresh look, untainted by current analysis (although I probably will take a close look at Drought, given that he seems to be the one we are lynching today). 
Look at that, the very first post was from Drought. Seems pretty hesitant, and while I could view that as suspicious, I could also totally see myself writing that as a villager so, NAI. 
Oh, and I just looked at the rules, turns out there aren't a ton more forsaken going to jump on us, which is a nice thing for me, given my panic about that the other day. 
Maybe I'm looking into things too hard, but in Mr. Doctors first analysis of Brightness, he says "nothing suspicious here yet." As if she's going to be suspicious in the future, versus how he discussed any of the other players in that post. It's not much, but it makes me slightly suspicious. 
Also, brightness says she assumes 5 elims... she could have been lying or telling the truth there, so I'm not sure how much information is to be extrapolated from that. 
Ok, more of this. Mr. Doctor throwing shade on Young Bard's suspicion of Brightness. This further reinforces my suspicion of him, but I'll continue to read and see what's up. 
And THEN mr. Doctor was the first one to vote on Snipexe for the second time... Idk, this is looking worse and worse
Ok, Mr. Doctor wasn't around for IRL reasons during the Brightness lynch, but I am further suspicious of their response to her death. So, Mr. Doctor. 
While I doubt Mr. Doctor is going to get lynched today, I'm mainly just expressing my suspicions from a readthrough of the thread, I would advocate for a lynch especially if Drought turns village. If he turns elim, I'll probably back off a bit, but right now the little things about Mr. Doctor just, bother me. 

Edited by Ookla the Positive
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We've got an hour left, and we have a bandwagon forming against Drought. Quite frankly, I don't like lynching people who have voted on Elims. On the other hand, it could have been a distancing tactic, since Brightness was getting lynched regardless of his vote. Still, he apologized in his vote on BR. If you wanted to project strong evidence of your village membership, apologizing when voting on a teammate seems illogical. That seems like something a conflicted villager would do, not an Eliminator.

There's also the Mark vs Aman debate happening. I haven't been able to shake my evil gut read of Aman. His posts have just seemed off to me. Why quote literally every post of your opponent, and then not vote for them? I've never known Aman to wait for a response. That just reads like he's trying to force a lynch without being part of the train. It's just too sketchy for me. Plus, I don't agree with his logic. There's a non-zero chance that the Warriors are completely village. I dislike giving Thug roles to Elims as a GM, so a doc full of those type of roles might also be free of Elims. If I had to choose between the two of them, I would vote Aman, but no one else is voting for him. I don't want to vote for either of the lynch candidates.

Thankfully, I was ninja'd by Steeldancer while I was writing this. I agree with his points about Mr. Doctor, and since I don't want the other two to die, I'll vote along with him. I should read through his posts more, but this late in the cycle, this is more of a protest vote.

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8 minutes ago, Sart said:

We've got an hour left, and we have a bandwagon forming against Drought. Quite frankly, I don't like lynching people who have voted on Elims. On the other hand, it could have been a distancing tactic, since Brightness was getting lynched regardless of his vote. Still, he apologized in his vote on BR. If you wanted to project strong evidence of your village membership, apologizing when voting on a teammate seems illogical. That seems like something a conflicted villager would do, not an Eliminator.

Too bad Orlok didnt think this way during LG50, when elim!Fura apologised for lynching elim!MetaTerminal... he still cought us. Maybe what I did in that game was unusual, but I don't think it is a good defence for a player.

Ok... what is the vote count? MrDoctor has at least 2 votes, mark 1, and drought 3? I don't like these votes... too easy for an elim to escape.  I don't have time right now. Guests coming over. Can someone else do the vote count? We are almost out of time...

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2 hours ago, Ookla of the East said:

Well, now Drought's response has activated my pity.

It sounds like he's yielding, and I hate lynching players who just give up. I'm not blaming Drought here, since I'm not 100% knowledgeable in the rules either, but its an occurrence that bothers me. Unfortunately, I doubt that this is a ploy to remove our votes on him.

I don't want to get involved in the Mark - Aman spat, for reasons voiced by several player before me. However, we need to lynch someone today! Every chance to catch an Elim, we should take it! Of course, that line of thinking can get dangerously out of hand, but alas.

Droughtbringer.

I didn't have much time to do anything. Sorry...

But now I have a bit of time, let's go.

1 hour ago, Mr Doctor said:

I'd say that Droughtbringer is the best candidate for a lynch. Mark isn't here and Drought's lynch will tell us about Fura, which is very useful

If I do get lynched (which I doubt It'll he stopped at this point) then take the info. I'd much rather my getting lynched rather than Mark, who isn't here to defend himself. 

1 hour ago, Ookla the Ring said:

All the evidence I have seen is solid. As was stated, feels bad to vote on Droughtbringer in the face of his 'giving up' post. Don't have a lot to add on the Aman/Mark stuff.

Sorry, my tone was off because I was running out of time.

My lynch will hopefully give you guys information, please take my death and use it to your advantage. I haven't been active enough to truly understand the game, but the knowledge that you will get from my death will be useful. Please use it.

2 hours ago, randuir said:

In addition to the reasons for suspicion, his lynch could also help shed some light on the Mark vs Aman situation depending on how he flips.

How would my lynch provide info on Mark vs Aman? I'm slightly confused. Please elaborate.

 

A quick count puts me at 6 votes, which, even if we wanted to, we probably couldn't switch the vote at all.

 

My three suspicions at the moment are Fura, and Mark. Fura's tone seemed off to me, mainly this past cycle, but that could easily be due to him starting my lynch and creating a bias for me, so take that with a grain of salt.

@Mark IV said this: 

Quote

DroughtBringer. Reading through D4 and N4, I was getting increasingly convinced that Drought might be elim. Part of it is his vote being the last one on BR's lynch. On its own its NAI. Even I did that with one of the lynches (Snip's, I think?). However, combined wtih what Fura and a few other have posted, I'm inclined to believe this is our best lead right now (well, except for that other Fielder, but idk whDroughtBringer. Reading through D4 and N4, I was getting increasingly convinced that Drought might be elim. Part of it is his vote being the last one on BR's lynch. On its own its NAI. Even I did that with one of the lynches (Snip's, I think?). However, combined wtih what Fura and a few other have posted, I'm inclined to believe this is our best lead right now (well, except for that other Fielder, but idk who that might really be). I can't remember the other reasons right now. I am however, confident in the opinion of my past self.o that might really be). I can't remember the other reasons right now. I am however, confident in the opinion of my past self

The whole 'trusting my past self' seems *very* off to me. I feel like that could be a way to throw off self-blame, and allow you to put a lynch onto someone when you do not have much reasoning.

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16 hours ago, randuir said:

@FuramirionindThe reference I was talking about referred to how every book (or at least the first couple) starts with a variation on this: "The Wheel of Time turns, and ages come and pass. In one age, called the Third Age by many, a wind arose in the Blight. The wind was not a beginning; there are neither beginnings nor endings to the turning of the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning." I made an allusion to it in an RP exchange with the false fielder, and the false fielder claimed to be unsure if this  if this was a reference or not because they'd only read the first 100 pages of th eye of the world.

I'm like 58% certain it's one of Steeldancer or Droughtbringer, but leaning towards Droughtbringer of the two. Overall writing style seems to match (but it's not a particularly strong match as I haven't found anything that seems particular to a specific person). I'm worried about not being dead though, as it suggests that the false fielder isn't particularly worried about me figuring them out.

Unfortunately, I'll still be pretty busy today. I'll try to make some time for some more analysis later, but I'm afraid I can't make any promises.

Edit: Everyone, please remember your defense actions. Last night's effective defense was only 3, which is way less than it should/could have been

So, thing is, I've read the entire series of WoT. It was a long and arduous journey, but I definitely wouldn't lie about something real like that in a document just to obscure my identity, I just wouldn't mention it at all.  

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Stopped was Month-Long Drought: dried-up, withered, old.
The Blight took her, merciless,
Though she was driven in.
In, driven, was she though?
Mercilessly her taking, Blight, the old, withered-up, dry drought, month-long, was stopped.

Month-Long Drought was far past old, past caring
The Dark One seemed to her but a man erring
And not a great force
Without shred of remorse
To whom many would spend their lives swearing

She took up with Moiraine to advise her
Yet never made the woman apprise her
As an adviser
And none the wiser
Others frequently sought to chastise her

The conflict would resolve itself one day
When six came over intending to slay
With Drought surrounded
And quickly bounded
She turned into the Blight’s latest prey

 


Night 5 has begun! It will end in 23 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT,  December the 17th.

Droughtbringer was lynched! He was Roleless.

Vote Count:

Droughtbringer (6): randuir, Mark IV, Furamirionind, Hemalurgic Headshot, Mr Doctor, Karnatheon

Mr Doctor (2): Sart, Steeldancer

Mark IV (1): A Joe in the Bush

The Eye has 36 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 6 health remaining, and is the Sixth Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 11. This is not a typo; the Blight is attacking for eleven.

Wormwood was killed!

Nailicis and Nogard are still alive, and will Send Runner N6 unless stopped. Screwtape is still alive, and will Send Runner D6 unless stopped.

Randuir IsRand and BrEn Memorium will continue attacking people tonight unless stopped.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

 

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit Roleless
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will Warrior of Fal Dara

11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother Emond’s Fielder; Fal Dara Warrior
16. A Joe in the Bush as Joseph, a man who has mastered the art of squeezing into very small spaces in bushes

17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle

18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi Balthamel

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

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uhhhh.... what? I just went through and read the rules and everything... but now I'm even more confused... why in the world is it attacking for 11? According to the rules, Desperate Attack should increase the damage by 2. And there's nothing in the rules indicating why that would be the case... so... a secret?
Also, given that Drought has turned Village, I'm further suspicious of Mr. Doctor. 
So, my guess right now is that someone did something last night that had some sort of unexpected affect. Whoever you are, KEEP DOING IT. Or maybe everyone put in actions and so it got reduced? idk. 

Edited by Ookla the Positive
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2 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

It increases by 1 every time automatically. Desperate adds 2 more. Every time we defend successfully it goes up 3. If we fail it resets to turns +1.

So that implies we failed, and yet we took no damage at all. Which would imply that somehow, the Blight was straight up prevented from attacking. 

Edited by Ookla the Positive
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I didn't actually compare the damage from today to yesterday, or see the tag until you said that. The only thing I can think of is that someone, roleblocked The Blight. It's an NPC. It can't die. But it's still an NPC. But I don't see anyone in the rules with a daytime roleblock.

Edit: So confused right now.

Edited by Ookla the Ring
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6 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I didn't actually compare the damage from today to yesterday, or see the tag until you said that. The only thing I can think of is that someone, roleblocked The Blight. It's an NPC. It can't die. But it's still an NPC. But I don't see anyone in the rules with a daytime roleblock.

Edit: So confused right now.

Yes, and yet clearly it happened. Sooooo, there's several scenarios I see as possible. 
1. Someone has a daytime roleblock of secret origins. 
2. Someone used an existing day-time ability on the Blight, and it did weird stuff. 
3. Maybe the Blight was roleblocked by everyone putting in an action. That seems slightly less plausible to me, but it might be the case. 
Whatever happened, I'm a fan of it, and would like it to occur again. It could greatly extend our lifetime here. 

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