Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Furamirionind]

@randuir Ok, well faking time zones within an America is pretty straight forward, though if you look at my posting habits throughout this game, you will see that I have been on here pretty late for a EST person. (granted, I have been on way too late for a PST person too, so this really doesn't mean anything...).  As they are an elim, being inactive the first 1.5 cycles I don't think means anything, or perhaps even could mean they are mildly active during that time, as during that time they were probably strategizing (ugh, spelling!) primarily with the elims. This eliminates STINK, Sart/Gancho, Karn from being in that doc. (granted STINK was basically already cleared from that).

If you genuinely think the reference went over their head, that would clear Aman, Rath, Karn (again), Mark, HH, and MrDoctor.

That leaves the possibilities to be: Steeldancer, Cadmium Compounder, Droughtbringer, Young Bard, Furamirionind, and BrightnessRadiant

I am going to post this now so people see it, but I will continue editing things in unless someone posts after me.

@randuir:

 

Sart, BrightnessRadiant

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind

[DeTess]

Young Bard also seems familiar with WoT in his opening post. But yeah, you've got a pretty good list of my current pool of suspects.

Edit: the one thing suggesting it's not BR is that she said on the Discord that she has no intention of reading WoT during the recruitment drive for this game.

Edited December 14, 2018 by randuir

[Furamirionind]

55 minutes ago, randuir said:

Edit: the one thing suggesting it's not BR is that she said on the Discord that she has no intention of reading WoT during the recruitment drive for this game.

Oh, I didn't realize we were allowed to intentionally use info from outside the game. idk.

So in the response you got, it sounded like someone was working on reading WoT? I am going to keep my vote on BR at the moment as she has been casting suspicion towards me basically all game, and this in addition to that would make sense to me... But I will be thinking more on this.

EDIT:

On another note, there are 4 players who haven't been on the shard at all over the past 24 hours, but that doesn't really mean anything as N3 was extended...

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind

[DeTess]

Yeah, I'm in favor of Lynching BR right now, though that might change if she's got a really good explanation for my question. However, I'm signing off for the day after this post.

I also suggest we don't spend too much time hunting for the false fielder. I think they spoke enough in the doc that I could get a fairly good idea if I do some in-depth analysis of their speaking pattern, but I just don't have the time for that right now.

Regarding using out-of-game info, I believe (though the mods will of course correct me if I'm wrong) that you can use knowledge you gained outside of the game if that knowledge isn't game related. So if I someone accidentally told me what doc they where in on Discord or in real life, that'd be wrong, but if I know someone is a fan of DC comics, and is using 'Batman' as their name in an anonymous Doc, it'd be fine for me to connect the dots there.

[Furamirionind]

Quote

Regarding using out-of-game info, I believe (though the mods will of course correct me if I'm wrong) that you can use knowledge you gained outside of the game if that knowledge isn't game related. So if I someone accidentally told me what doc they where in on Discord or in real life, that'd be wrong, but if I know someone is a fan of DC comics, and is using 'Batman' as their name in an anonymous Doc, it'd be fine for me to connect the dots there.

That makes sense, thanks. (I don't think there is time for me to do ring analysis AND expect people to actually take my advice this time, so I wont bother this turn)

I also think I really need info on who has been role-blocked/redirected.  Please remember that the elims already know about the actions they take, so saying them in thread doesn't help them. As for the Moiraine role-block, the elims will know whether or not one of them was roleblocked as well, so they already have way more info than us on this. It will be giving the elims a little info, and us a lot of info. (even if you don't want to share roleblocks (which I think we need), at least share redirects)

will be editing in players over time, so that people can see the first part of this message.

STINK - hasn't been on the shard in several days. So for all intents and purposes, cleared

Randuir - hard cleared

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Rathmaskal]

Hmmm, interesting information being brought to light here.  A couple things I could see here:

1. Randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is telling the truth.  We have a few reasonable suspects, it seems, to discuss lynching.
2. The elims have realized that they really only need one or two more mislynches, so randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is lying to force that and gain temporary control of Manetheren (before we'd likely turn the lynch on him tomorrow if we get a serious mislynch here)

So, I've played, I think, just two games with randuir, both of which he's been elim...and both he gave off a similar feel.  This game actually feels a bit different from randuir, so I'm going to take him at his word for now.  Also, if randuir is an elim, this would feel like a really clunky game from someone with his experience.  Basically, on a vote analysis, randuir would probably be suspect #1, and that's not a likely sign for randuir.elim in my mind.

(I still think we're likely quite close to LYLO btw...so this is a rather important vote)

Current votes:

• Amanuensis (1) - Sart
• Young Bard (0) - Furamirionind
• Sart (0) - Furamirionind
• BrightnessRadiant (3) - randuir, CadCom, Furamirionind

First off, we're like 2.5 hours from rollover and only have four votes out of 15 people (5 now with mine).  Second, I don't know why, but every time I'm suspicious of someone and they are lynched a few cycles later, I always start second-guessing myself...not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing :/

This kind of gives me pause in particular:

Quote

Edit: okay, looking back through. Why are people lynching Meta?? I see 2 votes that look like they missed Meta's reasons for voting Fura and they weren't just following Ookla the East's vote. Then other ones that just kinda hopped on.

This was BR last day cycle as a few people started hopping on the Meta train.

My vote is for Furamirionind.

I've expressed some doubt in past cycles for Fura as well, but I have a current *ninja Fura...speak of the devil* conspiracy theory that Fura and Cadcom are on the elim team together due to some posting that seems rather coordinated to drive some of these mis-lynches.

[Karnatheon]

Alright, this is all assumptions, conjecture, and chances, there are no guarantees to any of this, so take it with a grain of salt I guess?

On N2 the Blight attacked for 11 damage. 2 of that damage got through. That means there were 9 defense actions that weren't sabotaged. 15 people posted in thread that cycle, the 3 who didn't were STINK, Mr Doctor, and Meta. STINK has been pretty much inactive all game. Mr Doctor stated he was busy that cycle during the next cycle, and Meta didn't really give a reason. Assuming those 3 didn't submit actions, that leaves us with a potential 15 actions to make use of. Given that it was a night turn, Rand had no special action, Mat has no special action, Perrin was dead, Lan would count for 2 defense, The Green Man is the only other role we know is in play and he would use his Rand protect, the 3 anonymous docs carry no special night action, Balthamel can redirect, Fain can't sabotage, and the elims only had access to the kill action and roleblock at that time. I checked back through the D3 posts to see if anyone mentioned being redirected or rolelocked, because I remember reading that at some point, but couldn't remember which day. I didn't see it in there though. Going to fill out some general assumptions here. 

Rand: Defend.

Mat: Defend.

Lan: Defend.

Moiraine: Unless they got lucky and hit an elim with a redirect who thus didn't mention it, defend?

Loial: I don't know if it's worth it for Loial to record, unless they have very strong suspicions. I also feel this is the least likely role to be in play personally. Defend?

Green Man: Protect.

Balthamel: Sabotage.

Aginor: Sabotage.

Village: Defend.

Elims: Kill, sabotage.

If those assumptions are correct, out of the 15 'active' people that turn, only 3 used a special action. The elims killed Xino, the Green Man protected Rand, and Fain did whatever. That gives us 12 actions to dedicate toward the Blight. If Lan isn't in play, at most 10 village could have defended, and 1 elim could have sabotaged. If Lan is in play, 10 village could have defended for 11, and 2 elim could have sabotaged. That would give us either 3 or 4 elims posting in that turn. If Moiraine did roleblock, I think she must have hit Fain, since we know she didn't hit the person who submitted a kill, and she couldn't have hit an elim who was Sabotaging unless not all the village defended. 

On D3 5 votes were negated. Up to one of those could have been negated by Aginor if he had targeted someone who didn't defend that turn. If that is the case then 4 votes were possibly negated by defend/sabotage actions. The 5 votes negated that turn were myself, Randuir, Aman. 1 of CadCom, Drought, Ark, and Mr Doctor. And 1 of Meta, and HH. There were again 15 people active that turn. The inactives were Sart and STINK. 

Rand: SAtS.

Mat: Defend.

Lan: Defend.

Moiraine: Could have defended or Persuaded to detect alignment.

Loial: Same reasoning as above.

Green Man: Defend.

Aginor: As stated, could have attempted a negate to fish for action info.

Balthamel: Sabotage.

Elims: Sabotage.

So, as stated if the elims are smart and using Aginor's negate to fish for action info, he used a special action. Rand used a special action. Moiraine could have also fished for action info. The Blight was only attacking for 6 that turn, and none of it went through, so there were a minimum of 6 defends. Assuming that Aginor and Moiraine specialed, that gives us 7 actions left. up to 3 elims could have sabotaged, and up to 4 village could have defended along with that. That means at least one of the negated votes is a guaranteed defend. Obviously, that isn't saying much, as there are so many people to split it up amongst. Also, assuming the maximum number of potential villagers defended, it is highly likely Aginor targeted someone who was defending. That brings us up to almost guaranteed that 2(minimum) of those people are village. If the maximum of 3 elims sabotaged, the odds of them all having their vote negated are ridiculously low. There is a 0.8% chance of all of them being negated, and a 4% chance of 2 out of 3 being negated. I'm not confident enough in my Probability calculation to determine the odds of the village. Given this, I feel like we can bring it up to 3, meaning that most likely 3 out of the 5 negated votes belonged to villagers, with there still being a good chance 4 of them were villagers. I could be completely messing this math up honestly, because I came to these conclusions using equations I found online after looking for just a little bit. I still think the results are sound though. 

Guaranteed: 1 out of myself, Randuir, Aman, (CadCom, Drought, Ark, and Mr Doctor), and (Hemalurgic Headshot, Meta) are village and negated that turn.

Highly probable: 2 of the above listed.

Probable: 3 of the above.

Less Probable: 4 of the above.

Unlikely: 5 of the above.

So I'm not sure what to make of all this, it seemed a lot more important when I was thinking it all out ahead of time, and as I figured things out it seemed like less of a confirmation of anything. Keep in mind that even though we know Ark and Meta were village, it doesn't guarantee they defended, or were negated that turn. Also, this doesn't mean that any of the people that were negated are elim, it just is very likely several of them are village. I don't even know if any of this makes sense, given that halfway through writing it I got confirmation from the GMs that Fain couldn't Sabotage, and that changed some of the math. So I may have missed a couple places that I needed to change numbers.

Onto what's actually been discussed, I had already decided Randuir was village previously, and this new information all but guarantees it. Given their statements about the elim in the Warrior doc, I'll be voting for one of them as well. Might as well attempt to guarantee the BrightnessRadiant lynch.

[Droughtbringer]

About 3 hours left in the cycle, and I have yet to do anything. Sorry guys.

I will say that I have not read Wheel of Time, (If I hadn't said that elsewhere beforehand). 

I'll try and spend some time reading through the cycle, but I can't guarentee that with the projects that I need to get done today, so; BrightnessRadiant (Sorry BR!) for now. 

[Rathmaskal]

1 minute ago, Droughtbringer said:

About 3 hours left in the cycle

Yep, I went the other way with my time conversion this time...thanks.

Just to clarify, my last post had this wrong in case anyone was trying to figure out who was correct.

[Droughtbringer]

1 minute ago, Rathmaskal said:

Yep, I went the other way with my time conversion this time...thanks.

Just to clarify, my last post had this wrong in case anyone was trying to figure out who was correct.

I just look at how long ago Fifth posted the cycle, and subtract it from how long he said the cycle would be

[Furamirionind]

55 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Hmmm, interesting information being brought to light here.  A couple things I could see here:

1. Randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is telling the truth.  We have a few reasonable suspects, it seems, to discuss lynching.
2. The elims have realized that they really only need one or two more mislynches, so randuir, The Hydra Resurrected, is lying to force that and gain temporary control of Manetheren (before we'd likely turn the lynch on him tomorrow if we get a serious mislynch here)

So, I've played, I think, just two games with randuir, both of which he's been elim...and both he gave off a similar feel.  This game actually feels a bit different from randuir, so I'm going to take him at his word for now.  Also, if randuir is an elim, this would feel like a really clunky game from someone with his experience.  Basically, on a vote analysis, randuir would probably be suspect #1, and that's not a likely sign for randuir.elim in my mind.

(I still think we're likely quite close to LYLO btw...so this is a rather important vote)

Current votes:

• Amanuensis (1) - Sart
• Young Bard (0) - Furamirionind
• Sart (0) - Furamirionind
• BrightnessRadiant (3) - randuir, CadCom, Furamirionind

First off, we're like 2.5 hours from rollover and only have four votes out of 15 people (5 now with mine).  Second, I don't know why, but every time I'm suspicious of someone and they are lynched a few cycles later, I always start second-guessing myself...not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing :/

This kind of gives me pause in particular:

This was BR last day cycle as a few people started hopping on the Meta train.

My vote is for Furamirionind.

I've expressed some doubt in past cycles for Fura as well, but I have a current *ninja Fura...speak of the devil* conspiracy theory that Fura and Cadcom are on the elim team together due to some posting that seems rather coordinated to drive some of these mis-lynches.

I really feel off about this post. (no, not because you are acusing me).  Actually because of what you say about Randuir, you look like you are actually trying to think through this, but I actually think Randuir is hard cleared. I didn't want to say anything about it at first because I thought an elim might say something about him, but I didn't actually think it would happen...

the only way elim!Randuir could take this risk is if either both players in the doc are elims, or if he knew the other person could not access the thread for the remainder of the day. Basically, if this is a lie, the other person in the doc NEEDS to come out and tell us, and I am making the assumption they will. With close to 5 hours left in the day when this was said, though that isn't much time, a lot of people have been swarming around rollover time.  So this is a risky statement to make.

I 99% think there is only 1 elim in this doc. if there were 2, as it is an anon doc, the elims could just never kill anyone in the doc and always prevent it from ever taking a kill action against a creature. INSTEAD, they killed Devotary and Ark making it so that they could tie the doc and prevent any creature kill actions.  They left Randuir alive because people get concerned about Randuir and because I was focusing on him a couple turns ago.

Elim!Randuir should not take this chance... unless there are 5 elims or something crazy like that, then it doesn't too much, but I think 4 max at this point. (possibly 3)

I admit to being a little confused by Randuir not trying to lynch me after asking about me reading the book, but I still don't know what reference was made.  If it was from the beginning of the book, I should have gotten it.  I admit I get suspicious when people aren't suspicious of me, but right now, I think there are 100% more suspicious people than me.

"(I still think we're likely quite close to LYLO btw...so this is a rather important vote)" - I appreciate you restating what I already said, but I would go as far as to say for all I know, we could BE in LYLO right now. (granted, I don't know exactly what that means...But I think I have the general idea...)

One last thing, I don't understand what your quote from BR is supposed to do... I would appreciate an explanation.  However if I was to guess, I would say you are a panicking elim because you only have 3 elims, not 4 like I have been thinking most of this game, and we are targeting one of you with a decent lynch chance.  It would seem to me that you want me to be an elim, because that speaks well for BR, as she spoke up against the lynch to protect me.

@Rathmaskal any thoughts?

(I want to lynch Rath now as I think if he flips elim, that will tell us BR's alignment, however, and this part is a stab in the dark, I think BR is Balthamel.  If she was Aginor, he wouldn't be so agitated as she would have Hardy then. Assuming the third Elim is then Padan Fain, that means Rath will now hove to choose if he wants to kill, or create a creature... Which is not the ideal choice. (as Padan Fain can't take those actions)

edit: I may not be around until after rollover as well... I will try to be, but it is my Grandmother's birthday, so...

another edit: And of course, Droughtbringer is Padan Fain because... Yeah... Good enough. I believe it. : P

that was a joke, though it is possible.

Edited December 14, 2018 by Furamirionind
Added an "edit", added a joke, and then made spelling fixes.

[Karnatheon]

I agree it is likely elim!Rath is trying to protect elim!BR by throwing doubt on village!Randuir and potentially village!Fura with that. Seeing BRs alignment could also be indicotative of Rath's.

[Rathmaskal]

11 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I really feel off about this post. (no, not because you are acusing me).  Actually because of what you say about Randuir, you look like you are actually trying to think through this, but I actually think Randuir is hard cleared. I didn't want to say anything about it at first because I thought an elim might say something about him, but I didn't actually think it would happen...

But you did say that...

57 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Randuir - hard cleared

Anyway, is randuir hard cleared?  Absolutely not.  This would be an easy way to get someone to claim being the last non-elim Emond's Fielder so as to create a situation where we lose a powerful role.  If it is randuir.elim with one non-elim in the doc, then we regain that role currently if randuir is lynched.  If it's randuir.village with one elim in the doc, the elims can still freeze the doc and kill randuir if said elim is lynched at some point.  Randuir.village has already given up his identity, so he has no other choice but to keep at it and provide as much information as possible.  Randuir.elim would currently be doing the same thing.  So, an evaluation of randuir is 100% necessary right now.

26 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

One last thing, I don't understand what your quote from BR is supposed to do... I would appreciate an explanation.

It was an example as to why I'm now second-guessing my initial suspicions of BR.  That comment read extremely village to me.

*Note that the quote times are going to be all messed up because, as usual, I was interrupted a lot while working on this post*

[Rathmaskal]

4 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I agree it is likely elim!Rath is trying to protect elim!BR by throwing doubt on village!Randuir and potentially village!Fura with that. Seeing BRs alignment could also be indicotative of Rath's.

Where exactly am I throwing doubt on randuir?  My post says I'm reading him as village.

[DeTess]

Ugh, couldn't sleep, so I've got some last minute thoughts. 

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I agree it is likely elim!Rath is trying to protect elim!BR by throwing doubt on village!Randuir and potentially village!Fura with that. Seeing BRs alignment could also be indicotative of Rath's.

I haven't read everything yet, but remember that during D2, BR put Rath in the lead vote-wise at a time where that could be the beginning a wagon (lots of people with one vote, and she placed the 2nd on Rath). I previously concluded that that probably meant BR and Rath weren't both elims.

@Furamirionind, I'm going to play devil's advocate (devil's prosecutor? whatever) here for a second, but there's something I noticed. Why do you seem so certain that I'm speaking the truth and there even is a 4th person in the emond's fields doc? For all you know, there could have been 3 of us from the start, and I'm the only one left.

@Amanuensis, @Ookla the Positive, @Ookla the Unprepared, @Ookla of the East, @BrightnessRadiant, @Mr Doctor, where are all of you? If we get unlucky with the beast, the elim kill and the amount of elims, this could very well already be the last cycle.

[Furamirionind]

15 minutes ago, randuir said:

Ugh, couldn't sleep, so I've got some last minute thoughts. 

I haven't read everything yet, but remember that during D2, BR put Rath in the lead vote-wise at a time where that could be the beginning a wagon (lots of people with one vote, and she placed the 2nd on Rath). I previously concluded that that probably meant BR and Rath weren't both elims.

@Furamirionind, I'm going to play devil's advocate (devil's prosecutor? whatever) here for a second, but there's something I noticed. Why do you seem so certain that I'm speaking the truth and there even is a 4th person in the emond's fields doc? For all you know, there could have been 3 of us from the start, and I'm the only one left.

@Amanuensis, @Ookla the Positive, @Ookla the Unprepared, @Ookla of the East, @BrightnessRadiant, @Mr Doctor, where are all of you? If we get unlucky with the beast, the elim kill and the amount of elims, this could very well already be the last cycle.

Ok, I forgot about that.  I still don't like Rath's post, I will have to read more closely.  It is just a lot be be consistently going back to read.

First Rand, I am never certain anyone is speaking the truth, even if I say that I am. For instance, I have many times doubted myself while trusting Karn... And why am I so certain that there is a 4th person in the feilders doc? well, to be honest, it was based on an assumption I made at the beginning of the game with how many players there would be in each doc. 2 fielders had died, and you mentioned a second was in the doc, which assuming you were telling the truth, confirmed the amount of fielders I was guessing (4), so I was probably too eager to assume you were telling the truth there...

EDIT: with that assumption, it wouldn't make sense for you to be an elim after accusing a second player in the doc, because they could turn on you. I just think it would have been too risky. But it all comes from the assumption you were telling the truth about 1 more player in the doc...

Edited December 15, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Karnatheon]

40 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Where exactly am I throwing doubt on randuir?  My post says I'm reading him as village.

I don't know where I got that. Rereading your posts I think I must have misunderstood some of the things you were saying the first time. I think because I was reading the Randuir/Fura conversation while writing my large post, and then reading your post, I got confused. I understand that isn't a good explanation, but I retract my statement about you casting doubt on Randuir, because you actually weren't.

[Elandera]

Just a reminder, there's an hour left to get in your votes and actions.

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle is closed, with results to be posted in an hour or two.

[Fifth Scholar]

A Specially Chosen Limerick

Thirteen were the Forsaken of yore
Remembering their names is a chore
Ishamael was the first
He may be the worst
For an oath to the Dark One he swore

With him was Asmodean, musician
He didn’t much care for competition
But Rahvin the fair
And Sammael there
Definitely had more ambition

And next we have Demandred the eel
Then the two men twisted by the Wheel
Balthamel, Aginor
Of males there’s one more
Be’lal the jealous rounds out the sad reel

Then Semirhage is the fallen Healer
The equal to Lanfear the manstealer
They filled men with dread
Until they were dead
Graendal followed, who wolves named Heartseeker

Two more Chosen would walk in their sleeping
Moghedien though she was a weakling
In Power alone
But in other zones
She and Mesaana left others weeping

 

Night 4 has begun! It will end in 23 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT,  December the 15th.

BrightnessRadiant was lynched! She was Balthamel. 

BrightnessRadiant (4): randuir, Furamirionind, Cadmium Compounder, Karnatheon, Droughtbringer 

Amanuensis (1): Sart

Furamirionind (1): Rathmaskal

The Eliminators have lost access to their faction roleblock. Their kill and Creature Summon remain available.

The Eye has 36 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Fourth Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 9.

A Creeper of the Blight has appeared: Screwtape! It will Send Runner D6 unless stopped. In addition, Wormwood is still alive, and will Send Runner N5 unless stopped. In addition, Poxx is still alive, and will Send Runner tonight.

Randuir IsRand has been attacked, but did not die! It will start attacking people tonight unless stopped.

I have run out of immediately available pinch-hitters, except for perhaps one, but that’s no excuse for inactivity on anybody’s part. Therefore, I’d like to encourage everyone to stay active. Any player not posting in-thread today who hasn’t done so in a while will (hopefully) be replaced by my one pinch-hitter beginning tomorrow, though I’d rather not do that. 

Please remember that PMs are closed.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother Emond’s Fielder; Fal Dara Warrior
16. STINK, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle

18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi Balthamel

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

[Karnatheon]

We did it guys. Yay for taken one out! Don't have time for more than this currently but will hopefully have time after work tomorrow.

Edit: How did the Blight hit for 7!?

Edit edit: Am I the only one that defended? It was only attacking for 8!

Edit edit edit: nevermind.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Ookla the Ring

[Furamirionind]

I can't tell if my life is super lucky or if I am a genius... *reality check*... wait, no, i can tell... my life is just super lucky... that is what it is.

Anyway, I don't care, I called it. : P

________

Quote

Edit: How did the Blight hit for 7!?

Edit edit: Am I the only one that defended? It was only attacking for 8!

Well, I thought a lot of other people would be defending (like they the past couple turns), so i pulled out of my defence to make sure BR got lynched.

Edit edit: who's vote was negated? If it was someone who voted late in the cycle, that will give us info as to who Aginor is.

Edited December 15, 2018 by Furamirionind
Added section after line

[Steeldancer]

I am so sorry for never voting, but today was a long day where I studied my brain to mush. I probably won't post again this turn, because I have an important final/date today, but I should be able to become more active starting next day. Hooray, we killed a Forsaken! I... honestly don't remember which forsaken that was. That's probably not a good thing, because the ones I do remember from the series were kind of nasty. Anyway, with one eliminator dead, this should make it much easier to contextualize other people's posting. But I'll probably not get around to analysis as I previously mentioned, but hopefully it'll give me something to do when I do get back to activity. 

Actually, a thought just struck me. This means Young Bard is probably cleared. Good stuff. 

Edited December 15, 2018 by Ookla the Positive

[DeTess]

Welp, this is pretty storming fantastic. I'm pretty sure we should be able to properly hard-clear some people based off of how BR flipped. I'll hopefully have time to do a proper analysis round later, but I'm very busy today so we'll see.

Edited December 15, 2018 by randuir
Heh, fair enough, profanity filter

[Mr Doctor]

Sorry for not posting. I'm super busy all weekend but I might be able to squeeze something out. This week has been a bit of a mess for me, I don't have many things to do but they all seem to take a lot of time. I really should be focusing on this more.

In terms of the flip, I want to go and look more at Young Bard because of that attack on BR, because I want to see if his interactions with her clear him or look like a distancing act. I sided with BR back then because she was the defender but this does bring my initial thoughts into doubt.