Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Droughtbringer]

8 hours ago, Ookla the Duck said:

7. Droughtbringer Somewhat less active as well. Fura tunneled on him D1, and D2. He did little to nothing to defend himself. I’m reading as slightly village. But he is less active, and that makes him scarier to trust.

Don't trust me. I have now read through the rules 7 times since the game started and I am still lost. For all I know I could be an elim, and be completely misinterpreting the rules.

 

3 hours ago, Ookla the Unprepared said:

"If I had to choose, I think Fifi (BrightnessRadiant) is a good choice. Their tone seems too offputting - I sense the way they say things aren't genuine, but a way of trying to allay our suspicions."

Why, Bard? I may have missed it, but would you mind quoting a few posts that give you this off tone? 

 

4 hours ago, Ookla of the East said:

I'm intrigued by this vote on Mr. Doctor. Fura states this is a poke vote, but this is D3. Is this really the time for poke votes? I understand that Mark IV had some confusion with votes last Night, but this vote still leaves something to be desired. 

The line of thinking Fura presents is reasonable, but discredits the possibility of inactivity among the Elims, a factor that creates variability in such logic. Mainly, I have a general village read for Mr. Doctor, and the supposition that because he is still alive means that he is an Elim doesn't seem like grounds for a lynch. Under the same logic, Fura could be Elim as well.

Thus, Furmirionind.

I think that, if you have no idea what is going on, and are attempting to get some form of a vote going, and the start of a cycle, doing a 'semi-poke vote' based on your suspicions at least slightly, is a good way to start discussion and see what people are thinking.

I'm not seeing much of a reason for the Fura lynch, or more specifically, the reasons for the Fura lynch don't seem quite right to me.

In the interests of guaranteeing the vote;

(1) Mr Doctor: Furamirionind,

(2) Furarmirionind: Ookla of the East, Ookla the Cited,

(1) Rathmaskal: Ookla the Positive, 

(3) Ookla the Cited: randuir, Amanuensis, Droughtbringer

(1) BrightnessRadiant: Ookla the Unprepared, 

[BrightnessRadiant]

Crap.....I forgot about the game because I had so much to do today. College registration, stuff for my job I'm starting tomorrow, and babysitting. Apologies all, I really haven't had any time today.

Edit: Let me eat dinner and I'll try and be back on for as much as I can before the cycle ends.

Edited December 12, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[Steeldancer]

2 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

Steelrunner

Who is steelrunner exactly? Because I ain't steelrunner

[Droughtbringer]

11 minutes ago, Ookla the Positive said:

Who is steelrunner exactly? Because I ain't steelrunner

Why do you have to be this way?
Steel, or 'Ookla the Positive' as the youngin's are callin you these days, I just want me Dried Vegetables and some good Prune Juice. You don't see me walkin' around and changin my name at the drop of a hat!

[Rathmaskal]

So, this time I'm not going to be around for rollover (since I'm about to head out the door for a while) so since there actually seem to be a decent number of people on the thread and the two people I've professed suspicions on would just muddy the waters of the existing vote, I'm going to abstain this cycle.  I hope to come back to good news in a few hours.

[Steeldancer]

11 minutes ago, Droughtbringer said:

Why do you have to be this way?
Steel, or 'Ookla the Positive' as the youngin's are callin you these days, I just want me Dried Vegetables and some good Prune Juice. You don't see me walkin' around and changin my name at the drop of a hat!

Drought I know for a fact that you are just as old as me, don't go shaking your finger at me and talking about me being a youngin 

[Mark IV]

4 hours ago, randuir said:

Ugh, Rathmaskal, Metaterminal This is in part a protest against seemingly low-effort posting like that  (which we've had way too much of this game)and a poke to share more of your own thoughts (which we've had way too little of), and partly actual suspicion that Metaterminal is an elim riding the coat-tails of a well-reasoned argument against a villager.

This vote switch and subsequent ones to MetaTerminal seem slightly forced. My first instinct was that it was a ploy to save furamir (TBH, that is what drought said he is doing). MetaTerminal has a justification for voting for Furamir. I can understand his hesitance for voting, but he posted his reasoning before HH (Ookla of the East) and from the looks of his post, wanted to reread the round before voting. While it may seem like little justification, it certainly wasn't no justification. I don't understand this wagon on MetaTerminal. 

In the interest of expressing suspicion, Randuir . I don't expect you to be lynched this cycle. However, I'm voting to, as I said, express my suspicion of you.

I'm in mobile right now, so yeah. I'm not going to do an analysis post right now. This night cycle however, I'll likely make some posts. Hopefully. 

[Droughtbringer]

22 hours ago, Ookla the White-Cloaked said:

7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit

@Ookla the Positive

[CadCom]

I promised Id put a vote in bu the end of the cycle, and I do prefer the lynch of meta, who I believe is ookla the cited over fura, because fura is contributing a lot to discussion, and I am reading village on them.

Edit. Could someone with more time than me post a vote count?

Edited December 12, 2018 by Ookla the Duck

[Karnatheon]

I dont anticipate numbers changing much in the next 20 minutes. So to ensure a lynch in the face of vote negation, ookla the cited

[+Ark1002]

I'll vote Meta

[BrightnessRadiant]

Okay I caught up! (I may not have totally gotten sidetracked with life after dinner)

  I don't have time to go through as much analysis as I'd like and I have to admit to myself that life is too busy to be as active as I'd like for me right now. If I had to pick an elim out of the active players, I'd say that Fura is giving me a bad vibe from some of his posts and reasoning so I'd like to read back through all of his posts before next cycle if I get the time. Rand is also setting off red flags for me with some stuff he's done, but I can't recall what they all were. I just doubt myself with Rand because I always think he could be an elim and don't want to rule it out. I'll try to look closer at some more people soon. 

   My biggest village read is probably Karn because I feel like an elim wouldn't have risked pushing that hard for Snip's lynch in only cycle 2. Almost all of his posts so far have felt too genuine to be an elim. (If you are than well done, especially for your first game.)

@Ookla the Unprepared Are there specific reasons you feel this way about me? I know your first suspicions against me I answered as best I could, but I never got a response as to whether you acknowledged or didn't believe my reasons in any way. I feel like your just sticking with a gut read instead of looking elsewhere very much.

   In regards to my vote on Rath, I did say it wasn't a retaliation vote as much as it was for his voting reasons and because I misunderstood part of his post. Just because his vote had been on me does not make it directly a retaliation vote and it slightly irkes me that it keeps being called such. I would have voted on him after that post, irregardless of his vote being specifically on me. Just wanted to clear that up.

I don't have time to do much to determine the vote at this point and feel wrong putting a vote on Fura without doing more research on him. I'll be abstaining from the lynch this cycle which I've never done before. I feel it's gotten enough votes to carry it through and I ran out of time to look at Meta's posts.

Edit: okay, looking back through. Why are people lynching Meta?? I see 2 votes that look like they missed Meta's reasons for voting Fura and they weren't just following Ookla the East's vote. Then other ones that just kinda hopped on.

Edited December 12, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[Mr Doctor]

Alright, late post. Again, sorry. I accidentally pressed Ctrl+Z halfway through writing this and lost 15 minutes of work, so that's fun. It might be lacking a bit of content that I intended to put in.

 

10 hours ago, randuir said:

Could you explain a bit more about what you meant when you said that you'd become desensitized to lynching inactives?

Sure. In my previous games I've expressed distaste at lynching inactives. I felt like it was killing someone for the crime of quietness, and that it was far more valuable to analyse players who had actually posted a lot, rather than taking shots in the dark against people who had said nothing. Lynching those who have a lot of content means that we can learn more from their deaths and flips, and do better vote analysis of the players who killed them. Killing inactives means that we're almost randomly killing people where there's a higher chance that they'd be Villagers than Elims. I still believe in all of that logic.

However, I also realise that any lynch is better than no lynch, and if there are no suspicions then by lynching active players then not only do you have the same issue of shooting in the dark, you're also reducing your population of the few people who are talking, which is probably better for the Elims. I used the word "desensitised" because I no longer mind as much, but it's mostly because I see that there is more benefit to it than forcing people to lynch active people, which just muddies the waters.

 

10 hours ago, randuir said:

Furami (neutral)

Quote

I think it unlikely they just roled a d20 and picked someone on that roll.

That's a rather specific thing to say, especially because it wouldn't be all that bad a tactic for denying the village useful information from your choice of kills  

IN all seriousness though, I'm starting to grow some doubts about them. They've voted for Droughtbringer twice, someone that at the time of his second vote still only had 1 no-info post. That was a fairly safe place for an elim to park their vote without risking either discussion or being on a mis-lynch as a lynch against a fully inactive was fairly unlikely to take off. He also made a fairly good case against me, but then didn't follow up this turn and I don't really see why he decided to pick doctor for his vote instead of me.

On the other side of the scale there's his heavy investment in doing all the math around the rings and theorycrafting the best orders for defense, which certainly makes him look like he's heavily invested in the game, but ti doesn't really help us find elims.

I'm going to keep an eye on him for now, but I'm not really feeling as good about him as I did earlier in the game.

6 hours ago, Ookla the Cited said:

Fura (slightly elim)

The double vote on Drought seems... odd. If someone doesn’t respond to an initial pokevote, then it’s very unlikely that they’ll respond to a second, so if you were trying to incite discussion you’d probably be much better in spreading your pokevote around. In addition to that, doing maths analysis about the rings in order to disguise a lack of opinions and activity seems to me like a Fura!Elim ploy, especially with so little player activity otherwise. It also strikes me as odd (although I may be unnecessarily extrapolating here) that the first elim kill was on a player that was doing ring analysis, and thus would be the best equipped to point out any misleading information that Fura hid into their posts (eg overestimating village defences to let our guard down, intentionally miscalculating or drawing wrong conclusions). However, Devotary is usually a solid analysis-based elim kill, so I’m not so sure about that. But I’m leaning a little elim on Fura. (If you could provide some more solid reads on everyone, this would do a little to convince me otherwise.)

I'm starting to lean further to Elim on Fura, although not out of the Neutral zone. I don't believe that the mathematical Ring defence is particularly redeeming, because Elim!Furamirionind may have thought that it would be worth losing the threat of the Eye being destroyed in order to infiltrate the Villagers and be better trusted. I find the Drought vote strange as well.

The justifications against me are...interesting. 

19 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Mr .Doctor I am not so sure about. They were quiet, but they still have done a lot of analysis the first 1.5 cycles... This would (I think) have been a good time to kill them.  Therefore, some investigation of Mr. Doctor's post are, I think, in order.  I will try to do that if someone doesnt beat me to it.

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

I think the obvious choice to kill was Mr. Docter due to his absence yesturday.  Karn had a chance of being lynched, and I was tunneling on you, so killing the three of us would probably be a bad idea. Mr. Doctor showed his skill in analysis is previous posts, and leaving those people alive, I have recently learned, is often dangerous.

I don't think village!Mr. Doctor had a use for the elims, unless you are one and wish to hide behind him.  But as Karn seems to trust you, you probably wouldn't need Mr Doctor.

I feel like distrusting a player because they seem analytical and yet are still alive is a good enough reason. But note that randuir has been more analytical and active than me (and, I think, is a more dangerous player to the Elims) and is also still alive. I'm not saying that randuir is suspicious, but I would say that I am in a similar boat to him. I find that killing a player with a lot of analysis and opinions is often dangerous, because people have a tendency to consider why someone was killed (see Snipexe's post about Devotary's death) and look at who they suspected. The best strategy, I believe, is to wait until the player has stopped talking about your teammates, and then kill them and hope that no one looks back at who they suspected a Cycle or two ago.

I don't think that the suspicions from this post are especially unreasonable, but I do disagree with them to some extent.

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Umm... are you saying here you think it is more likely that I am a villager than Karn, as you didnt say you are putting me on your watchlist? Thinking about this, this could be more of a test on me, but as I d oknt know that, this still looks weird to me.

"Watchlist" is a pretty frivolous term that find myself using to say that I'm going to be watching a player more than I was. I read Karnatheon as more Village than you, yes, but I trusted him more at the start and less now, so I'm going to be watching closer for slip ups.

 

6 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Umm... are you saying here you think it is more likely that I am a villager than Karn, as you didnt say you are putting me on your watchlist? Thinking about this, this could be more of a test on me, but as I d oknt know that, this still looks weird to me.

This is a weird way of me saying that a Villager would be analysing the Rings in order to help the Village, and an Elim would do it to make the Village trust and rely on them, making people subconsciously less likely to consider them for a lynch. Don't take the wording especially seriously, because I like to have fun with words and sometimes meaning is lost. Does that clear it up?

7 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

"I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village".  - I have never played an SE game with you, in LG50 I didnt do particularly well, and in LG49 it was completely differant.  What instinct is telling you that this all could be a con? And more importantly, if you think this could all be a con, why do you have me the most trustworthy of your list?  I just started targeting you, and I read this as though it could be a pocket attempt to try to get me off your back.

I like to believe that everyone is sneakier than they appear. You're insightful and intelligent, so it's entirely reasonable that you could be fooling us all. I did so well in LG46 because people didn't believe that I could be as sneaky as I was, because I barely knew how to play and they had never met me before, unlike players who are notoriously sneaky. New and unfamiliar players are especially like that for me, which is how I feel about both you and Karnatheon.

 

6 hours ago, Ookla of the East said:

I'm intrigued by this vote on Mr. Doctor. Fura states this is a poke vote, but this is D3. Is this really the time for poke votes? I understand that Mark IV had some confusion with votes last Night, but this vote still leaves something to be desired. 

Several of Fura's votes have been pokes, or appear to be, which I agree is odd. However, as he says he does have some actual suspicions of me beyond poking.

I agree with randuir, it should be easy enough to state suspicion of Furamirionind given his number of posts. 

4 hours ago, Ookla the Ring said:

14 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts.

I feel applies to Ark as well. So a combination of everything still gives me that gut feeling.

Hmmm I was thinking this as you pointed it out. Additionally, a short one-line vote post doesn't look great for him.

 

I think that it's better to vote for MetaTerminal than Furamirionind, if only because the latter has more posts and more to give (and more than I can analyse in a short space of time). 

In the interests of solidifying the vote, MetaTerminal / Ookla the Cited.

[Fifth Scholar]

Cycle closed, all.  

[Fifth Scholar]

Elak Dehlin, a man of great power

In his riches he hated the Tower

As he helped Moiraine

He grew less insane

Yet his expression was always dour.

 

He despised witches within Tar Valon

Yet he and Moiraine had started to bond

‘Gainst Callor’s advice

(Which really was nice)

He started helping guide her course along.

 

Yet he too was a merchant in the North,

And his dyes and his woollens he brought forth

He sold quite a few

But even he knew

He stayed for people, and not money’s worth

 

Despite all this he often was blamed

Seven men stepped forward and him named

Though only three stayed,

The others were swayed

And Dehlin was consigned to the dark flames.

---

I’m very sorry rollover took so long this time. The blame for this can be placed entirely at my feet. I’ve set rollover at 22:00, later than I usually am awake past, especially to be staying up until 23:00 or 23:30 organising cycle results and posting the new thread, after doing the writeup. The initial reason for this was that I had schoolwork and finals coming up like many others, and pushed rollover back so I’d have enough time for those; however, the havoc it’s wreaked on my sleep schedule, considering I get up before 5:00, simply isn’t working anymore, and I fell asleep compiling rollover last night. To solve this problem, I am moving rollover to 21:00 EST (2 GMT), one hour earlier. I sincerely apologise if this messes with everyone’s schedules, but this seems the best way for me to find a balance of time. To account for the delay, and change in rollover times, this cycle will be extended to end Thursday the 13th (which conveniently solves another problem that had complicated 21 EST rollover for me, namely, 19:30 church which takes a while). 

Result PMs will be sent in a little bit.

With all that being said....

Night 3 has begun! It will end in less than 48 hours’ time at 21:00 EST, or 2 AM GMT,  December the 13th.

MetaTerminal was lynched! He was part of Moiraine’s Circle.

Vote Count:

MetaTerminal (3): Randuir, Karnatheon, Cadmium Compounder, Amanuensis, Droughtbringer, Ark1002, Mr Doctor

Furamirionind (1): Hemalurgic Headshot, MetaTerminal

BrightnessRadiant (1): Young Bard

Rathmaskal (1): Steeldancer

Mr Doctor (1): Furamirionind

randuir (1): Mark IV

The Eye has 36 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Second Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 9.

Kanker has been killed. Poxx will Send Runner N4 unless stopped.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother
16. STINK, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power Moiraine’s Circle
18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

[Furamirionind]

2 am for me, so I won't be posting much.  However, 7 people voted on MetaTerminal, yet only 3 made it through? @Ookla the White-Cloaked just double checking that.

If so, 13 people voted total, with just under half getting their vote negated... with there only being 1 vote negating role, 5 are from defending/sabotaging. Wow.

This also does confirm that with moirainse circle dying, the health goes down.  This was an assumtion I mentioned, but I do not believe it was explicitly asked.

I was offline the entire second half of the last cycle, but that was quite a bandwagon on MetaTerminal. When i wake up, hopefully I will have more to say, but I also have a lot of work to do tomorrow for my last final... so I will be (hopefully) fairly inactive on here.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Fifth Scholar]

@Furamirionind That is correct. In addition, the second ring, while defending it does guard against Aginor/Moiraine’s vote manip, it does not protect one from the inherent vote negation of defence or sabotage.

[Furamirionind]

Thanks Fifth, I forgot about that... so basically all that tells us is a lot of people defended (which we could also tell from still being on ring 2), and even with that bandwagon, I am incredibly lucky I wasn't lynched. Lol.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

Well ain't that a bandwagon if I've ever seen one. Sorry that I was the one that kicked it off, Meta. When I voted as the second player I hadn't anticipated 5 more people piling on, which feels especially bad since I suspected you were trying to protect a teammate. Now I'm wondering if people were using you that same way. Droughtbringer tipped the favor from 2 - 2 between Furam and Meta in Meta's direction, and from there it seems Cadmium, Karnatheon and Kidpen all joined Drought in quick succession, with Mr Doctor solidifying things shortly before turnover. Otherwise, randuir was the only other player to get a new vote, while BR and Mr Doctor were the only ones to have a single, old one. While no one seems to have been explicitly saved by the bandwagon, it's still possible an eliminator added their vote to Meta near the middle to steer things away from a teammate. While I can't say randuir or Mr Doctor are completely innocent, I'd bet there's at least one elim among Drought, Cadmium, Karnatheon and Kingpin. Otherwise the village is doing a really good job of devouring itself.

[Furamirionind]

1 minute ago, Amanuensis said:

I'd bet there's at least one elim among Drought, Cadmium, Karnatheon and Kingpin. Otherwise the village is doing a really good job of devouring itself.

Is this the point I vote on Drought again? xD.

I am still leaning village on Karn.  As a new player, bandwagoning on someone with some suspicion on them makes sense, and seems to fit my view of Karn as a, "ernest and hardworking, but inexperienced villager". I don't think I am explaining myself well, I will likely rephrase in the morning.

[Fifth Scholar]

Writeup edited in (earlier than I expected; apparently I had gotten more done last night than I remembered)! I’ve decided that I’ll be doing mostly limericks as death writeups from now on, as I’m not very good at longer-form writeups (especially doing one every day), and you’re more likely to read and enjoy something short and rhyming anyways.  

[Amanuensis]

9 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Is this the point I vote on Drought again? xD.

I am still leaning village on Karn.  As a new player, bandwagoning on someone with some suspicion on them makes sense, and seems to fit my view of Karn as a, "ernest and hardworking, but inexperienced villager". I don't think I am explaining myself well, I will likely rephrase in the morning.

Well it's night, so 

Thing is, Drought makes the most sense if you're evil, too. Votes at that time were 2 You, 2 Meta, 1 BR, 1 Mr Doc. Possible he could have wanted to prevent someone from adding a second vote to BR or Mr (I.E. pushing us towards "it's either Fura or Meta" which actually makes a lot of sense if we assume you're village). The same logic can be applied for Cad, Karn and Kid, except with the additional suspect of randuir since Mark had just added a vote there shortly after Drought's.

In short,

If Drought is evil, then Furam, Mr Doctor or Brightness could be evil.

If Cadmium, Karnatheon or Kidpen are evil, then Furam, randuir, Mr Doctor or Brightness could be evil.

I, like you, have a village read of Karn, and I obviously have a village read of you as well. I also was suspicious of Doctor during my first read through, so when I get around to building a case against him (probably today) I'll see whether my gut reactions had legitimate merit. I believe I was apprehensive of randuir as well. The rest are all blank slates to me, though. 

Edited December 12, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Sart]

I barely got on 2 minutes before rollover to defend, but I didn't actually vote. I noticed the bandwagon, but there was nothing I could do about it then. So much for being active... I disagree with calling this vote a bandwagon. For most of the cycle, it was very closely tied, with a large spread of votes. It's only late into the cycle that it tipped so drastically. I'm slightly suspicious of Drought, as his defense on Furamirionind seemed a bit like pocketing to me. Then we had a slew of last minute votes. Yes, I understand not liking vote manipulation, but that was ridiculous. I'd especially like more reasoning from Kidpen. A one-liner is always annoying.

[Amanuensis]

10 minutes ago, Sart said:

I barely got on 2 minutes before rollover to defend, but I didn't actually vote. I noticed the bandwagon, but there was nothing I could do about it then. So much for being active... I disagree with calling this vote a bandwagon. For most of the cycle, it was very closely tied, with a large spread of votes. It's only late into the cycle that it tipped so drastically. I'm slightly suspicious of Drought, as his defense on Furamirionind seemed a bit like pocketing to me. Then we had a slew of last minute votes. Yes, I understand not liking vote manipulation, but that was ridiculous. I'd especially like more reasoning from Kidpen. A one-liner is always annoying.

I hadn't realized it until this turn but given the fact that 4 out of 7 votes were negated on Meta and 1 of 2 negated on Furam, making the lynch 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 2, wariness of vote manipulation isn't that ridiculous. I'm not sure if that makes me more or less suspicious of this bandwagon, though. Like, for one, the elims only have one vote negation, right? That means the rest were either due to the 20% chance of a failing vote due to defense, or 20% due to sabotage. Is there any way we can calculate the change in the Ring's health to determine if someone had sabotaged it? Because if not, that means *all* of, or *all* but one, was because those players were defending.

EDIT: Thinking on that further, I find it interesting that the people who voted on literally anyone else (Young Bard, Steeldancer, Mark and Furam) didn't get their votes negated. Have any of them yet? Because that could be worth noting.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Amanuensis

[DeTess]

18 minutes ago, Amanuensis said:

I hadn't realized it until this turn but given the fact that 4 out of 7 votes were negated on Meta and 1 of 2 negated on Furam, making the lynch 3 to 1 instead of 7 to 2, wariness of vote manipulation isn't that ridiculous. I'm not sure if that makes me more or less suspicious of this bandwagon, though. Like, for one, the elims only have one vote negation, right? That means the rest were either due to the 20% chance of a failing vote due to defense, or 20% due to sabotage. Is there any way we can calculate the change in the Ring's health to determine if someone had sabotaged it? Because if not, that means *all* of, or *all* but one, was because those players were defending.

Since the ring took no damage, there where at least 6 effective defense actions submitted, but there could be more. This actually makes me wish the ring had fallen,as the ridiculous amount of lost votes combined with knowing the exact amount of defense would have allowed for some hard-clearing, or at least narrowing a group down to '1-2 elims in these 7, no more than that'.

The one risk tot his kind of analysis is that it'll highlight everyone that didn't submit a defense action, which includes Rand and potentially Moiraine because they've got special day actions.

@Ookla the White-Cloaked remind me, could any of the named elim roles submit a sabotage action (either naturally, or because they could also have the 'agent of the blight' role)?

Edit:

Important PSA:

Tired!Randuir is cranky and prone to gut-votes. He is not smart. Don't follow tired!randuir's lead!

Edited December 12, 2018 by randuir