584 posts in this topic

One year ago

The Great Lord stirred.

Ishamael could tell how weak the seals truly were, after three thousand years of wearing away. The cuendillar was brittle enough that he would be able to escape into the world again. Freedom, a wonderful feeling after eternal sleep in the Pit of Doom, sealed by Lews Therin and his Companions so long ago. But unlike his previous sojourns, this one would be permanent. He slammed at the stone with a glove coated with the True Power, seeming to weaken it further, enough. Seizing what little of saidin he could through the walls of the prison, he tore a gateway out of the mountain. Yet this time, no tendril of the One Power linked him to it. After three millennia of sleep, the Chosen would emerge from Shayol Ghul, to do the Great Lord’s bidding. Perhaps Aginor and Balthamel had been freed first, but Ishamael intended to perform the most important task he had been set: to find, and kill at last, the reincarnate Lews Therin. And he knew exactly how. Giving utterance to a laugh that echoed in the valley of Shayol Ghul, Ishamael raised his hands, feeling saidin flow through him, the taint of the Great Lord’s counterstroke sliding off the barrier erected by his own power. The Blight bristled, surging, sensing the strength of its master. Southward it swept with renewed fury. The touch of the Great Lord had returned to the world.

 


Now

A renewed fury it indeed was. Callor stood, the middle hours of the night being the lot he had drawn for the watch. Around him, he could see the Blight’s tendrils snaking their way towards the camp at impossibly fast speeds. Having grown accustomed to repelling the things from two days of experience—had it only been two days under the witch’s Warder’s tutelage? it seemed so long—Callor drew his sword, setting his feet in a stance that allowed him mobility and flexibility. Moiraine may be a Darkfriend, he mused wryly, but this Lan fellow may be worth keeping her around. Wonder what made him decide to join with the witches? The stance he assumed was mirrored in the poses of the other soldiers—clearly, he was not the only one instructed in the usage of such a posture.

The Creepers advanced, attacking, and Callor moved into the familiar stances. The Boar Rushes down the Mountain. The Courtier Taps his Fan became Parting the Silk became Heron Wading in the Rushes. One form to the next, blocking, attacking, fighting against the Shadow. Perhaps he had underestimated the Borderlanders’ toughness after all. He could see why warriors came here, came to wage war against the Dark One. Standing there, striking down Creepers on the right and left, his arms never seemed to tire of striking for the Light, his legs seemed as though they would hold him up forever, though thousands fall around him. Each tendril of shadow he struck down was a victory for the Light. Each overhanging branch of rotting vegetation, each rank weed, each insect which occasionally flew like a magnet straight towards him, each that was struck down delayed the Shadow. Callor even then ceased to think, to contemplate anything but the forms, to lose himself in the joy of striking a blow for the Light.

 


It had seemed like an eternity later. Moiraine Sedai had assured him it had only taken ten minutes for him to go weary, for his defence against the encroaching Blight to no longer carry its full effectiveness. According to the witch’s account, which was delivered with little emotion, Alkoo had elected to throw himself among the vast carpet of Creepers and tendrils, sacrificing himself to spare Callor from suffering the same fate. Callor could not fathom why anybody would die for him. Light, he’d not, given the chance. He had tried asking Lan, but he’d simply responded with, “It is every man’s right to decide when to Sheathe the Sword.” Flaming lot of good that’d been! Moiraine arched an eyebrow, and Callor realised he’d spoken aloud. Covering his mouth and reddening, he retreated back into a silent brooding at the table, thinking of Alkoo. The image of the Ogier, with a sad smile on his face, vanishing into the cloud of Blight make Callor shudder, yet he could not look away, just that section repeating in his head over and over, the Blight slowly advancing. Though it seemed to be going at a less vigorous pace than before, there was no question that it was creeping up, and that they had lost a layer around where Moiraine Sedai thought the Eye was. From Callor’s view, there were only 6 layers left before the Eye itself was breached. He sent a silent prayer to the Light they would last that long.

 


Day 3 has begun! It will end in 22 hours’ time at 22:00 EST, or 3 AM GMT,  December the 11th.

Xinoehp512  was killed! He was Roleless.

The Eye has 38 health remaining. The current layer of defence has 1 health remaining, and is the Second Ring. The Blight is currently attacking for 6.

Two Creepers of the Blight have appeared: Poxx and Kanker! They will Send Runner on N4 unless stopped.

Emond’s Fielders Message:

Spoiler

Randuir here: I wasn’t making stuff up when I talked about Devotary in the thread. Maybe I just died so this info isn’t really of use anymore, but whatever.

There is a lynch today.

Please remember that PMs are closed.

1. Steeldancer (Ookla the Positive) as Ookla the Positive, an orphan with a cheery outlook on life.
2. randuir as Evelyn, an Aiel Wise Woman and well-wisher
3. Karnatheon (Ookla the Ring) as Brendan Vallerune, a gleeman totally unrelated to Jeordwyn
4. Cadmium Compounder (Ookla the Duck) as Miumpounder, a cobbler with an abiding hatred of Altarans
5. xinoehp512 (Ookla the Phoenix) as Alkoo, a reclusive Ogier tucked away in encyclopaedias Roleless

6. Amanuensis as Nikel Fain, a man hell-bent on killing his father (totally normal)
7. Droughtbringer as Month-Long Drought, a prickly old noblewoman who only eats dried fruit
8. Rathmaskal as Jeordwyn Dormond, an Illianer gleeman who juggles knives through his enemies
9. Devotary of Spontaneity (Ookla the Heretical) as Rhodin, a countercultural Aiel whose views are about to go mainstreamPerrin Aybara, Emond’s Fielder

10. Young Bard (Ookla the Unprepared) as Jancey, a reluctant soldier who signed up to obey his father’s will
11. Mark IV as Lars, an inquisitive young nobleman
12. Snipexe (Ookla the Sceptical) as Exepins, a scribe who will eventually admit to the superiority of British spellings Hardy Fal Dara Warrior

13. Furamirionind as Keisa, a grizzled veteran of the Borderland Wars, with a scar on his forehead to show for it
14. Hemalurgic Headshot (Ookla of the East) as Skern Mundy, a man from the East with many skills
15. Ark1002 (Ookla the Dragon Reborn) as Shifting Shadows, a shifty, shadowy Wolfbrother
16. STINK, a formless thread in the pattern with less than 24 hours to identify himself before the Creator does
17. MetaTerminal (Ookla the Cited) as Elak Dehlin, a merchant with severe paranoia about the One Power
18. BrightnessRadiant as Fifi

19. Mr Doctor as Antor Vadenfort, a Illianer Warder without an Aes Sedai
20. Sart as Shirley U. Jest, a Cairhienen noblewoman who takes life far too seriously

Good luck to all!

Edited by Ookla the White-Cloaked
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Xino's death is interesting. They always read as an elim from what I have heard, and from what I have seen, I have no reason to doubt this.  They are a decent target for a mislynch, and do not drive the village to find elims.  With Randuir, Mr Doctor, Karn, possibly BR, and myself still alive (the ones who to me seem to be driving discussion)... (I forgot where this sentance was going... Just came home from my first NFL game, and am pretty overwhelmed from a headache, stomachache, asthma, and exhaustion. Sorry, wrong place to complain : )  )

Anyway, I would assume the slums would want to target one of the above people.  Karn obviously wont be attacked as there is a chance to lynch them.  Mr. Doctor was quite N2, so assuming village, they may not have been thought of much.  Randuir was targeted pretty heavily by me, so wasn't lynched.  Perhaps I also wasn't killed because they hope I will press Randuir.

Mr .Doctor I am not so sure about. They were quiet, but they still have done a lot of analysis the first 1.5 cycles... This would (I think) have been a good time to kill them.  Therefore, some investigation of Mr. Doctor's post are, I think, in order.  I will try to do that if someone doesnt beat me to it.

Also, I would like to thank Lan for ther action last night.

For the sake of reminding people there is a vote today, I will semi-poke Mr Doctor.

Mr. Docter

Edited by Furamirionind
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I'm not going to have a lot of time for analysis or anything today. Hopefully I'll get on for a little bit later to be able to get a vote in later on this evening. I understand there are going to be some people are going to be votong for me today, so hopefully I can post some sort of response to those accusations as well.

Edit: One thing I'll point out, Emond's field message is interesting. Also Rand make sure to use your action to kill a Creeper today.

Edited by Ookla the Ring
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I agree with Furami that Xinoeph is an interesting choice. It's clearly a kill designed to deny the village information, but there can be a couple of other motives involved as well. First of all, with a relatively small core of highly active villagers, killing within this group would badly reduce the overall activity of the game, which some players would avoid on principle when playing an elim. There's also the possibility that there are a number of elims among the highly active players, and these elims want to keep other actives around to allow them to hide within this group.

I'm going to put an early vote on Rathmaskal, because I'm suspicious of the overall low content to posts ratio coming from him. Chances are I might change this later as I'm going to do a review of Karn, Furami, mr. Doctor, and BR.

@Ookla the Ring, what's so interesting about me using the Emond's fielders message to confirm I wasn't making things up about Devotary?

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The message itself isn't what I was referring to I guess. More just the complete shift from last time. I assumed we would either get another legal document or we would have multiple players chiming in on game related things. I don't find anything supsicious about it.

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Yeah, we didn't have much the first time around before someone got the bright idea of editing the Declaration of independence in there, and this time around it was basically just a confirmation that i wasn't making stuff up. I hope we'll have some more to say next cycle.

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Apologies for my inactivity last Night. I was doing job applications and had some other IRL stuff come up.

I'll be heading to bed soon (watch me stay up for 3 hours making this post), but for now my thoughts are that Karnatheon is probably not an Elim based on how it would be a ridiculous gambit to focus on killing someone a simple Fal Dara warrior.

Thoughts on some of the active players. Others and more detail coming when I wake up.

randuir - Infuriatingly neutral

Still pretty neutral. I find it odd that he supported the lynch against Snipexe (and voted on him earlier in the game) but then didn't vote when the lynch came around. He has provided some justification for this, but not all that much. I don't really see why an Elim would do that, though, unless they wanted any voting pattern analysis to look better if the analyser didn't look too hard at the context of the votes. The less Villagers you lynch, the better you look. Hmm, I'll think about that more. For now, randuir is pretty Village-neutral.

Karnatheon - Village, on the watchlist

I'm not going to trust him all that much, but that push just didn't seem realistic for an Elim. Too much risk for the reward of potentially getting Rand al'Thor, or just getting a Villager. It feels genuine, and the reasoning was still relatively sound. He seems mostly Village, but still earns a place to be watched thoroughly.

Furamirionind - Village

Remains one of the more Village-y players in the game, at least from tone and consistency. I think that trying to appear helpful through providing a bunch of analysis of the Rings (even if it's actual genuine help) is a good way to appear trusted. But a Villager would be doing this at least as much as an Elim, just for different reasons, so NAI. I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village.

Mark IV - Neutral

A lot of the analysis he's provided has been gut-reads, which is not especially egregious, but some more solid opinions will tell me more. The claim about Snipexe being in the Fal Dara doc was helpful for information, certainly, but it also meant that Snipexe would be lynched based on what I had said. If Mark had kept quiet, the vote may have been more random and therefore potentially hit an Elim instead, especially since votes can get negated more easily in this game. Of course, this is a bit of a stretch, and objectively I think that I'd be much more suspicious in that circumstance than Mark, so others can make of that what they will. For now, neutral.

Rathmaskal - Also neutral

I'll admit that his vote on BrightnessRadiant looked a bit weak since he took it off pretty quickly, but he did say that it was a gut read, and if he was trying to start a bandwagon then BR was not the person to start it on. He was having some bad feelings about Karnatheon in Day Two, so I'd like to know more about that @Rathmaskal. I would like to see more content from him, as randuir has also said. Currently the worst things that he's done is vote for Snipexe and not provide many posts, so that's not enough to move me.

 

Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts. Steel's vote on Bard was pretty insubstantial and he would have known that, so given my opinion of Bard, if they're both Elims then it could have been distancing. But this is pretty baseless conjecture that I'm throwing out there for anyone to take up, and I'll build on it when I read those players in a bit more detail.

 

That's all I have time for tonight. I'll post tomorrow, and try to be more active going forwards. I most likely will have the time in the next few days. Again, apologies for my quietness.

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Well then, Let's get down to some analysis. I'll mostly be picking up where I left off last time (about halfway through D2).

Mr. Doctor (village-y)

Could you explain a bit more about what you meant when you said that you'd become desensitized to lynching inactives?

Overall I really liked that post though as it showed some clear progression of thought on a me, Karnatheon and SnipExe without feeling sanitized. Mr. Doctor was actually showing his thought process, warts and all, instead of showing his conclusion and hiding how he reached it and how his opinion shifted. If he ends up being an elim he deserves some congratulations for faking a post like that. That post did leave a potential line of attack open for him that I'd have expected elim!doc to use by now (he concluded that village!snipExe would mean that there's a better chance of elim!karn and/or randuir!karn), which looks good as well. An elim could have easily followed that train of thought and used it as justification this cycle, but Mr. Doctor seems to be throwing a wide net in his search for the elims rather than focusing one one player or thread, which speaks well for him.

Furami (neutral)

Quote

I think it unlikely they just roled a d20 and picked someone on that roll.

That's a rather specific thing to say, especially because it wouldn't be all that bad a tactic for denying the village useful information from your choice of kills :P 

IN all seriousness though, I'm starting to grow some doubts about them. They've voted for Droughtbringer twice, someone that at the time of his second vote still only had 1 no-info post. That was a fairly safe place for an elim to park their vote without risking either discussion or being on a mis-lynch as a lynch against a fully inactive was fairly unlikely to take off. He also made a fairly good case against me, but then didn't follow up this turn and I don't really see why he decided to pick doctor for his vote instead of me.

On the other side of the scale there's his heavy investment in doing all the math around the rings and theorycrafting the best orders for defense, which certainly makes him look like he's heavily invested in the game, but ti doesn't really help us find elims.

I'm going to keep an eye on him for now, but I'm not really feeling as good about him as I did earlier in the game.

Karnatheon (Village)

First of all, I'm surprised. You're from the USA according to your profile, but you didn't recognize that the Fielders message from N1 was the Declaration of independence slightly edited to fit in world? I thought everyone over in the states had to be able to recite the entire text from memory? :P 

Honestly, if I had to point at one player that I'd be nearly 100% sure was village, it'd be Karn. The funny thing is that there's a bunch of posts by him that I'd consider suspicious on a player with a couple of games under their belt but that come across as actually genuine (in particular the worry about being lynched that he keeps bringing up. 'On a more experienced player it'd look like hidden protestations of innocence, but it looks genuine coming from him).

So yeah, overall I hope he'll keep looking into the game and sticking his neck out to bring us stuff like his reasons for voting SnipExe, because those are really good finds, even if it didn't work out this time around.

I'll post about BR and Rathmaskal (and hopefully others) later, but I'd prefer to see them post for this cycle first.

 

Edit: A question I'd like to ask everyone, but especially those that don't have much time for analysis right now: Which person do you think is most likely to be village, and which do you think is most likely to be an elim?

Edited by randuir
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I sincerely apologize for lack of content from me. My toughest final is today, then after that, I honestly can just skim by, without worrying for my last two, because they're online and open book. I've been studying like crazy these last 24 hours though.

Here's my thoughts on 2 more people though. 

6. Amanuensis Inactive, until yesterday, like me. I’m still Neutral with my read of him. His discussion was basically regarding who he thought could be Village, including discussing slightly more exensively, the possibility that Rath is village, but most of that is in response to Randuir’s questions.

7. Droughtbringer Somewhat less active as well. Fura tunneled on him D1, and D2. He did little to nothing to defend himself. I’m reading as slightly village. But he is less active, and that makes him scarier to trust.

 

I personally think that we should lynch a less active this cycle, because if we lynch someone who's more active, we are going to be killing the discussion. So if someone could post a list of the least active, including me, I'll go over that list and decide who I think is most beneficial to lynch. But for now, I will withhold my vote. 

 

@Ookla the Positive(steeldancer) I do understand that you are also busy, just like me. And you do have the virtue of putting more effort into anything than I did probably up until this point. No worries, I understand your predicament. For that reason, for the time being I will not put my vote on you, like I suggested last night cycle.

Edited by Ookla the Duck
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Greetings all. Hopefully I can be more active next cycle and start placing more established reads on people. These are more like quick, uninformed sketches that are most likely missing information, but I thought I should at least post something.

Karnatheon (village)

Karn’s worries about being lynched, while usually damning for experienced players, are NAI here: I wouldn’t go so far to clear them entirely, but I have stated in the past about the survivor mindset, and it’s something that often gets new players lynched. Aside from that, I’m mostly gutreading them as village, and especially since this is one of their first games I think it would be harder for them to hide their mistakes.

Fura (slightly elim)

The double vote on Drought seems... odd. If someone doesn’t respond to an initial pokevote, then it’s very unlikely that they’ll respond to a second, so if you were trying to incite discussion you’d probably be much better in spreading your pokevote around. In addition to that, doing maths analysis about the rings in order to disguise a lack of opinions and activity seems to me like a Fura!Elim ploy, especially with so little player activity otherwise. It also strikes me as odd (although I may be unnecessarily extrapolating here) that the first elim kill was on a player that was doing ring analysis, and thus would be the best equipped to point out any misleading information that Fura hid into their posts (eg overestimating village defences to let our guard down, intentionally miscalculating or drawing wrong conclusions). However, Devotary is usually a solid analysis-based elim kill, so I’m not so sure about that. But I’m leaning a little elim on Fura. (If you could provide some more solid reads on everyone, this would do a little to convince me otherwise.)

That’s all I really have time for, unfortunately - I thought I could do more, but work has unexpectedly reared its ugly head. I’ll be back, but not before rollover probably. I will try to place a vote when I’m more informed.

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I guess I'm the victim of my normal level of activity this time around :/  (Seeing a lot of calls for me to post more, sorry, it's the holiday season and a busy time at work, so I've been a bit less active than normal - I probably show up as lurking a lot though since I'll start to view the thread then have to go off and do something else...)

A couple thoughts though:

9 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Also, I would like to thank Lan for ther action last night.

Was this just from the writeup?  *ninja randuir and CadCom*

4 hours ago, randuir said:

I'm going to put an early vote on Rathmaskal, because I'm suspicious of the overall low content to posts ratio coming from him.

You're saying I'm not including much content in my posts?  Mostly just trying to be efficient.  As I've mentioned, it's been a slightly busier time for me than normal, so trying to provide thoughts where I can.  Also, I often zone out when trying to read giant walls of text, so sometimes I try to be efficient when I have something small to post and not include a giant amount of content just for the sake of it.  And sometimes I end up with giant walls of text like this one is turning into (this sentence was added after I finished looking at BR)

1 hour ago, randuir said:

Karnatheon (Village)

 

First of all, I'm surprised. You're from the USA according to your profile, but you didn't recognize that the Fielders message from N1 was the Declaration of independence slightly edited to fit in world? I thought everyone over in the states had to be able to recite the entire text from memory? :P

Haha, actually, I don't think I ever had to learn much about the actual text of the Declaration of Independence when I was in school...  I recognized the post for what it was since I do have a general knowledge of it, but I don't think I could recite more than the first line or so.

Just as a kind of general statement, I am having a bit of a tough time getting much of a read on anyone partly since I think there's still a lot of people who are still trying to figure out the rules (put me in this camp still as well)

I still have a gut feeling about BR...so I'll try to qualify that here:

Quote

Literally me :lol:

So much, so complicated. My brain isn't used to SEing for a while xD

So, I just read/scanned the rules and I didn't realize it was day and night cycles until recently oops. I've never read WoT so if I rp at all, I'll be a crazy old woman named Fifi. No magic, just crazy. xD @Ookla the White-Cloaked

Okay....so, taking actions this cycle to protect the Eye right? I'll be honest that I scanned the thread as well so I have no idea for a lynch. Randuir, Mr Doctor, Fura, and Devotary are all really helpful so far....or they are pulling a Len on me and just seeming helpful. xD Either way, it helps me with reads when people post analysis so it's still good regardless of what they said.

Okay I read @randuir vote on Snipexe but I don't really agree on it. Although that is a generally used elim tactic, I don't really know if that would be what he was doing in that post. I think it's important that he called everyone's attention to the potential for lynch problems which shows that we should make sure to secure lynches by more votes on one person to avoid changing lynches. I kinda feel like it was a good thing to point out in case some people (like me) didn't read the rules as closely for the first cycle.

But meh, it's a day one lynch so I won't say that I haven't seen people lynched for less. Also, is there a lynch every EVERY cycle or just day cycles? The rules say every cycle.

I want to vote but I don't understand the rules enough to even know if people's analysis is sound or not. My best SE skill usually involves studying the people and not the rules. That's hard for me. I need more time. >> *sigh

I want to read through again before I try and vote.

This is a lot of text that seems to say the same thing over and over again...  And, actually, that's the main thing other than the retaliation vote on me last cycle, which definitely seemed like grasping for straws - if I had been lynched, I can almost guarantee people would be pushing for a BR lynch this cycle given how that vote came out.  I also kind of agree with randuir's comment here:

Quote

I actually like seeing BR's progression of thought from her second to her third post on my vote on SnipExe. It makes sense and seems logical to me why her stance shifted. I also don't see why elim!BR would have felt a particular need to go fro SnipExe over Bard (unless they're team-mates). Overall though there's a lof of psots by her wiht very little actual content, which bother me a bit. I'm keeping her at neutral so far and will be keeping an eye on her.

(Does anyone else ever feel like correcting spelling errors when they quote people?)

Anyway, I've still got a bit of an elim read on BR...trying to read through sufficient content to see if I find anyone else suspicious.

Oh, it seems I missed this comment:

Quote

Rathmaskal: Small RP. Poke vote on Xino. 2nd Post: Retracts poke vote, says they will return. 3rd Post: Says they missed the deadline on D1 vote, even though they were lurking on thread when it happened.

```A little suspicious about them because they were reading the thread for at least the last 30 minutes or so of D1. They didn't vote, and didn't do anything during N1. Most recent post not factored into this because I've been working on this for too long already.

I said I was surprised when I saw the cycle closed, yes...I was in the midst of reading through the thread and thought I had an hour left to analyze.

MrDoctor has kind of defended me twice in thread now...now sure if that's pocketing or a good read...hoping for the latter for now.

Furamirionind (I'm proud to say I can spell that without looking it up now) has been fairly active...this comment here:

Quote

With Randuir, Mr Doctor, Karn, possibly BR, and myself still alive (the ones who to me seem to be driving discussion)

isn't necessarily untrue...but definitely seems to be trying to prove that he's been an important part of the village effort so far.

This one as well:

Quote
Quote

Since Snip turned Village, here' my thoughts on his accusers.

- Rath: Village-ish, as I noted above. But otherwise on the fence.

- Mark: Expressed wanting to eliminate vote manip. Seems reasonable.

- BR: Not sure?

- Karn: A newcomer, but I'm not taking chances.

This post concerns me a bit.

- Rath: Your gut says village, but you don't think there is evidence for or against? (Not a big deal)

- Mark: I don't understand the relevance of this statement.  We all want to eliminate the elim's vote manip. This also doesn't give us any insight as to what you think about Mark, which is what you said you were going to do.

- BR: You are not sure? Fair enough. However, I would appreciate reasons. You say "Not sure?", not "neutral", so I assume you are confused about something.  Implying you have both reasons to think she is an elim, and to think she is a village.  What are those reasons?

-Karn: What aren't you taking chances about? Does this mean you are planning on voting for Karn's lynch next turn? The is a vague statement, that tells us, imo, even less than your "not sure?" that you had for BR.  This is very strange.

Edit: I understand this is your second post, and you wanted to post this cycle to keep your spot, that doesn't change how it reads though.  Though in my head, I do provide context for these statements.

reads a bit odd.  Specifically the part I bolded.  HH didn't say you'd be getting much insight...just said these were some thoughts.  (Italic words in inner quote were excluded from what Fura posted)

I'm kind of out of time right now - need to head to a different office for the afternoon - but I'll check in again in a few hours when I'm home (before I have to go to an ultimate game this evening)

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7 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

Furamirionind - Village

Remains one of the more Village-y players in the game, at least from tone and consistency. I think that trying to appear helpful through providing a bunch of analysis of the Rings (even if it's actual genuine help) is a good way to appear trusted. But a Villager would be doing this at least as much as an Elim, just for different reasons, so NAI. I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village

Umm... are you saying here you think it is more likely that I am a villager than Karn, as you didnt say you are putting me on your watchlist? Thinking about this, this could be more of a test on me, but as I d oknt know that, this still looks weird to me.

"But a Villager would be doing this at least as much as an Elim, just for different reasons" - this line, if we were in person could tell us a lot, however as we are not, I don't know how seriously to take it.

The thing that's is weird in this line, is you hold the elims up as the standard.  What I would normally expect is, "But an elim would be doing this just as much as a villager, just for differant reasons".  The sets up the first object as an unknown, with the second as a standard to compare the unknown to.

"I wouldn't put it past Fura to be sneaky enough to make us all rely on them with that Ring analysis only to be playing us the whole time. But other than that possibility, everything else reads Village".  - I have never played an SE game with you, in LG50 I didnt do particularly well, and in LG49 it was completely differant.  What instinct is telling you that this all could be a con? And more importantly, if you think this could all be a con, why do you have me the most trustworthy of your list?  I just started targeting you, and I read this as though it could be a pocket attempt to try to get me off your back.

3 hours ago, randuir said:

Furami (neutral)

Quote

I think it unlikely they just roled a d20 and picked someone on that roll.

That's a rather specific thing to say, especially because it wouldn't be all that bad a tactic for denying the village useful information from your choice of kills :P 

Hmm...  perhaps. However, when I said it I nearly tagged Elandera, as the reason I used those words is because we were talking earlier about dice, and a D20 is the DnD standard.  Granted, i accept that was a poor reason to make that choice.

3 hours ago, randuir said:

He also made a fairly good case against me, but then didn't follow up this turn and I don't really see why he decided to pick doctor for his vote instead of me.

Oh, I appreciate that. : P.    Though I thought you made a fairly good rebuttal of what I said as well.  You didnt address everything, nor could you.  I probably would have voted for you if one of the active players died, however, I think the obvious choice to kill was Mr. Docter due to his absence yesturday.  Karn had a chance of being lynched, and I was tunneling on you, so killing the three of us would probably be a bad idea. Mr. Doctor showed his skill in analysis is previous posts, and leaving those people alive, I have recently learned, is often dangerous.

I don't think village!Mr. Doctor had a use for the elims, unless you are one and wish to hide behind him.  But as Karn seems to trust you, you probably wouldn't need Mr Doctor.

Edit: ninja'd Rath and MT

Edited by Furamirionind
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12 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

You're saying I'm not including much content in my posts?  Mostly just trying to be efficient.  As I've mentioned, it's been a slightly busier time for me than normal, so trying to provide thoughts where I can.  Also, I often zone out when trying to read giant walls of text, so sometimes I try to be efficient when I have something small to post and not include a giant amount of content just for the sake of it.  And sometimes I end up with giant walls of text like this one is turning into (this sentence was added after I finished looking at BR)

It's actually lack of efficiency I noted. Like, you've made 11 posts before this cycle, but only one of them was really a content-heavy post, and all the others where either short responses, your initial poke vote and retraction on Xino and other things that said absolutely nothing about your alignment or your thoughts on the game. I've seen you contribute heavily on the village side before, so this stood out to me.

If you could get 1 or 2 more big posts like the one above up, i think I'd get a far better feel for you then I currently do, as I admit part of the reason I'm suspicious of you is just that there's far less for me to look at than I'm used to in your case.

24 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

(Does anyone else ever feel like correcting spelling errors when they quote people?)

(I don't generally feel like correcting grammar when quoting people, but I definitely feel like going back and fixing the sentences I've butchered after having been quoted)

I kinda want to talk about BR as well, but I really want to see how she starts today off first. @BrightnessRadiant, you said that you wanted to see the SnipExe lynch because you hoped to draw conclusions on a lot of people based on the outcome. Can you share some of those already?

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Since I will be unable to be active until rollover, I'd like to get a vote in.

Looking over some of the more interesting players, I narrowed my suspicions to Randuir and Fura. BR is also kind of on that list, but her inactivity is really limiting what I can say about her.

I have a general distrust of Randuir, partially from gut. He also is leaning Elim towards players I feel are more village-y, but that's NAI.

Fura is also suspicious to me for similar reasons, but in a more definite sense.

13 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Xino's death is interesting. They always read as an elim from what I have heard, and from what I have seen, I have no reason to doubt this.  They are a decent target for a mislynch, and do not drive the village to find elims.  With Randuir, Mr Doctor, Karn, possibly BR, and myself still alive (the ones who to me seem to be driving discussion)... (I forgot where this sentance was going... Just came home from my first NFL game, and am pretty overwhelmed from a headache, stomachache, asthma, and exhaustion. Sorry, wrong place to complain : )  )

Anyway, I would assume the slums would want to target one of the above people.  Karn obviously wont be attacked as there is a chance to lynch them.  Mr. Doctor was quite N2, so assuming village, they may not have been thought of much.  Randuir was targeted pretty heavily by me, so wasn't lynched.  Perhaps I also wasn't killed because they hope I will press Randuir.

Mr .Doctor I am not so sure about. They were quiet, but they still have done a lot of analysis the first 1.5 cycles... This would (I think) have been a good time to kill them.  Therefore, some investigation of Mr. Doctor's post are, I think, in order.  I will try to do that if someone doesnt beat me to it.

Also, I would like to thank Lan for ther action last night.

For the sake of reminding people there is a vote today, I will semi-poke Mr Doctor.

Mr. Docter

I'm intrigued by this vote on Mr. Doctor. Fura states this is a poke vote, but this is D3. Is this really the time for poke votes? I understand that Mark IV had some confusion with votes last Night, but this vote still leaves something to be desired. 

The line of thinking Fura presents is reasonable, but discredits the possibility of inactivity among the Elims, a factor that creates variability in such logic. Mainly, I have a general village read for Mr. Doctor, and the supposition that because he is still alive means that he is an Elim doesn't seem like grounds for a lynch. Under the same logic, Fura could be Elim as well.

Thus, Furmirionind.

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17 minutes ago, Ookla of the East said:

I'm intrigued by this vote on Mr. Doctor. Fura states this is a poke vote, but this is D3. Is this really the time for poke votes? I understand that Mark IV had some confusion with votes last Night, but this vote still leaves something to be desired. 

I can unserstand this perspective. However, I just wanted to hear more from MrDocter. My actual reason for keeping that vote is in my second post.

Edited by Furamirionind
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Unfortunately, it appears I won’t have time to analyse any further this round.

Fura, for reasons I outlined in my previous post. Ookla of the East’s logic seems sound to me as well.

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28 minutes ago, Ookla the Cited said:

Unfortunately, it appears I won’t have time to analyse any further this round.

Fura, for reasons I outlined in my previous post. Ookla of the East’s logic seems sound to me as well.

... Is no one reading my second post?

vote count:

MrDoctor (1): Fura

Fura (2): Ookla of the East (HH), Ookla the Cited (MT)

Edited by Furamirionind
Edited in a vote count
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Hmmm, I wish I was awake enough to stick around for another hour or so to watch things develop, but that's unfortunately not really an option. I'm actually really tempted to throw a vote on Metaterminal. If you genuinely vote on someone with as much posts as Fura, it shouldn't be that hard to outline some reasons for your suspicion, rather than sheeping someone else.

I really wish more of the discussion happened earlier so I could actually participate and make an informed vote based on that. 

Ugh, Rathmaskal, Metaterminal This is in part a protest against seemingly low-effort posting like that  (which we've had way too much of this game)and a poke to share more of your own thoughts (which we've had way too little of), and partly actual suspicion that Metaterminal is an elim riding the coat-tails of a well-reasoned argument against a villager.

And that's it from me for this cycle. I really hope to see more people participate in the first half of the next day-cycle.

Edited by randuir
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There is a lot of stuff people are bringing up that I definitely missed when reading through posts. My analysis of wording and intent needs to be worked on, it seems. 

As I said, not a lot of time for analysis today, so I'll go with what Randuir suggested and post the 2 people I am most and least suspicious of.

Reading through what people have written today makes me a bit suspicious of everyone, in different ways. Good points are brought up about Randuir, Fura, Rath, Mr Doctor, and BR. I don't know how to interpret all of those points into my own views though, so I'm still going to go with what has been my gut from the start.

I am still most suspicious of Ark1002. I realize I keep voting on him, and then switching my vote for some other reason, but I still feel he hasn't given me a good reason not to be suspicious of him. This point,

9 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

Just at a guess I feel that one of these players is an Elim, although judging purely by activity and what stands out, Steel has been on just enough to make a post a day and in theory put in a kill action and have some activity in his doc(s). BR is in a similar boat, although with more posts.

I feel applies to Ark as well. So a combination of everything still gives me that gut feeling.

The player I'm currently most trusting of is Randuir. A lot of people have been bringing up points that helpfulness can be a great disguise for the elims to hide behind, but I still don't think I've seen any posts from them that make me feel like they are elim. Other players are much more experienced than me in these matters, and know Radnuir to have some basis for judgments of alignment, but this is just the feeling I get.

I hope to be able to get on in a couple hours to vote, and hopefully read the further analysis posted as people come to their own conclusions. 

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Another dead body.

Relax, Jancey. Get through it. You can't keep freezing up like this... You can do better than that. You have to do better than that... There are Darkfriends among you, and your inaction could be the change between victory and defeat.

There was shouting in the streets, as people began ganging up on each other. One grizzled older figure (Furamirionind) tried to encourage a discussion, and was immediately shouted down with cries of "Darkfriend!".

"Who's the Darkfriend? Which side are you on?" someone yelled at him.

Jancey paused. He wanted to think, wanted to consider, but there was no time...

"If I had to choose, I think Fifi (BrightnessRadiant) is a good choice. Their tone seems too offputting - I sense the way they say things aren't genuine, but a way of trying to allay our suspicions."

"If I had to choose anyone else as a potential candidate... I would need to think very carefully about our Eastern friend, Mr Mundy (Hemalurgic Headshot) - he hastened to call our veteran friend Keisa (Furamirionind), who I trust, a Darkfriend, and the way he did so felt strangely... opportunistic. I'll have to think about this further, though."

 

(Gah. I've completely dropped Jancey's speech patterns. I really want to scrap it and start over, but I'm about to go out, and I don't want to go *three* days in a row without voting, so... never mind. Hopefully this might be easier to understand at the very least, which is something I was worried about with Jancey's distracted voice.)

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I would have said something earlier today, but I had no classes today and so slept WAAAAAYYY in. 
Ok, Young Bard has appeared again... and has voted on Brightness yet again. Not sure I'm going to vote on him though. I'm more feeling voting Rathmaskal, who kind of pointed me at Young Bard in the first place. I'll be around for the rest of the cycle, just tag me if I'm not responding to anything (I might be studying or something). 

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people yet to post this cycle:

@Amanuensis and @Ookla the Duck (I see you lurking)
@Droughtbringer @Mark IV @Kidpen (This is Ark I hope, Idk the actual kidpen's screen name rn, so idk how to check)
@STINK @BrightnessRadiant

And Sart, but they get a pass from me for just having stepped in.

Ooops not done yet... : / Dang, refreshed the page to look at Aman's post and lost my progress lol.

Edit: done now. : ) Thanks Aman!

Edited by Furamirionind
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40 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

@Amanuensis and @ookla the duck(I see you lurking)

I'm in the process of catching up and preparing a post. I think lynching Furam is a very bad call, going to try providing an alternative or two in a bit.

EDIT:

(1) Mr DoctorFuramirionind,

(2) FurarmirionindOokla of the EastOokla the Cited,

(1) RathmaskalOokla the Positive

(2) Ookla the CitedranduirAmanuensis,

(1) BrightnessRadiantOokla the Unprepared

For right now, I'm leaving a vote on MetaTerminal because I really don't like the vote on Furam and because Meta is a potential candidate for Padan Fain, given his levels of activity thus far. I'm also not a huge fan of how quickly he jumped on Furam, which makes me think he may be teammates with one of the other vote candidates at the time. I also would like to vote for Doctor but he's got a lot more posts with a lot more depth that will require deeper analysis than I can manage at 0031 in the morning, so if I'm on the right track about Meta, that might help me build that case. For similar reasons, I'm suspicious of Steelrunner's vote on Rathmaskal, and for a couple other reasons that I will address in my upcoming analysis post.

@Mr Doctor, @Furamirionind, @Ookla of the East, @Ookla the Cited, @Rathmaskal, @randuir, @Ookla the Positive

Edited by Amanuensis
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I’m a bit late, but a reminder that you’ve got 2 hours left this cycle to submit orders. 

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2 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

people yet to post this cycle:

@Amanuensis and @Ookla the Duck (I see you lurking)
@Droughtbringer @Mark IV @Kidpen (This is Ark I hope, Idk the actual kidpen's screen name rn, so idk how to check)
@STINK @BrightnessRadiant

And Sart, but they get a pass from me for just having stepped in.

Ooops not done yet... : / Dang, refreshed the page to look at Aman's post and lost my progress lol.

Edit: done now. : ) Thanks Aman!

I had posted though. Even with some analysis. Admittedly not much. I'm going to re read the thread one more time, then provide a vote. It may take some time though. 

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