Mid-Range Game 32: The Blight Encroaches

[Gancho Libre]

Quote

Hey guys sorry I couldn't post. I was gone all wknd

Sart you got this!

 

[Amanuensis]

Hey everyone. I'm officially caught up on the thread and have a few thoughts, but it's 9:20 P.M. for me now and one of my hardest classes' final is tomorrow, so I'm mostly going to be studying the material until I go to sleep. In the interest of fulfilling my personal goal of uncovering and killing Padan Fain, I'm going to follow Karnatheon's logic that he's one of the inactive / low-active / unfamiliar-with-rules players, and see if anything comes up (which I find hilariously ironic since I belong to all three of those categories). I actually have a few solid suspicions on a handful of players, and feel fairly-confident saying that Karnatheon, Rathmaskal and Furamirionind are all village. If I happen to die tonight, I ask for people look into Steeldancer, Mr Doctor, Mark IV, Brightness Radiant and randuir most thoroughly. As of right now, they're my top 5 suspects based on voting patterns, content of posts, and player interactions alone. Come tomorrow, I'll make sure to give brief summaries as to why, if not entire cases for whoever I determine to be my number 1 and 2.

If anyone has a not-too-time-consuming question for me tonight, go ahead and ping me. I'll try to check the site every now and then before bed just in case.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Amanuensis

[xinoehp512]

...My vote was cancelled. Again.

Good thing I didn't vote. 

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Phoenix said:

...My vote was cancelled. Again.

Good thing I didn't vote. 

Nevermind, lol missed the first part of your post.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Amanuensis]

15 minutes ago, Ookla the Phoenix said:

...My vote was cancelled. Again.

Good thing I didn't vote. 

Okay okay okay, wait. Your vote was cancelled, not just once, but twice, when you haven't even voted yet and have one other post. Hmm. So, are you implying that you've defended both D1 and D2 and were unlucky enough to get that 20% twice?

Edited December 10, 2018 by Amanuensis

[xinoehp512]

Yup.

[DeTess]

@Amanuensis, if you have the time I'd be very interested to hear why you think Rathmaskal is village.

[Amanuensis]

1 hour ago, Amanuensis said:

If I happen to die tonight, I ask for people look into Steeldancer, Mr Doctor, Mark IV, Brightness Radiant and randuir most thoroughly. As of right now, they're my top 5 suspects based on voting patterns, content of posts, and player interactions alone.

Yeah, I'm going to add Phoenix to this list, with a potential ! for being Padan Fain. One of the primary reasons I believe Rathmaskal is village is because his vote was clearly negated. Claiming to have your vote negated when you have no proof to back it up, on the other hand, seems more like something an eliminator would do for cred. Especially considering he's only posted once. If you're not invested in the game enough to post, why would you be invested enough to defend? I know I myself have completely forgot each Day so far.

EDIT:

32 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Amanuensis, if you have the time I'd be very interested to hear why you think Rathmaskal is village.

Good timing. You can find one reason above (EDIT2: Which is, admittedly, probably the biggest).

Edited December 10, 2018 by Amanuensis

[xinoehp512]

I'm not actually very good at analysis...

[Furamirionind]

2 minutes ago, Ookla the Phoenix said:

I'm not actually very good at analysis...

Neither am I, and this is Ookla the Ring's first game... But there is no way to get better except trying. Therefore, I would love to hear you try to analyse, regardless of skill in the area.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Karnatheon]

While I agree Rath could likely be village, don't throw away the possibility that Aginor intentionally negated Rath's vote in order to make him seem village. I'm not saying that's the case but don't immediately trust it without other good evidence. Wouldn't want an elim to be "proven" to be village and then be safe the whole game because of it.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Greetings. Aman's note on Rath's vote negation is valid in my eyes. Now, there is always the possibility that this is part of a ruse by the Darkfriends to protect one of their own by way of a WGG-esque maneuver, but my gut tells me Rath is village.

Since Snip turned Village, here' my thoughts on his accusers.

- Rath: Village-ish, as I noted above. But otherwise on the fence.

- Mark: Expressed wanting to eliminate vote manip. Seems reasonable.

- BR: Not sure?

- Karn: A newcomer, but I'm not taking chances.

Hemalurgic Headshot

Edited December 10, 2018 by Ookla of the East
keep forgetting to add my name at the bottom...

[Furamirionind]

12 minutes ago, Ookla of the East said:

- Rath: Village-ish, as I noted above. But otherwise on the fence.

- Mark: Expressed wanting to eliminate vote manip. Seems reasonable.

- BR: Not sure?

- Karn: A newcomer, but I'm not taking chances.

This post concerns me a bit.

- Rath: Your gut says village, but you don't think there is evidence for or against? (Not a big deal)

- Mark: I don't understand the relevance of this statement.  We all want to eliminate the elim's vote manip. This also doesn't give us any insight as to what you think about Mark, which is what you said you were going to do.

- BR: You are not sure? Fair enough. However, I would appreciate reasons. You say "Not sure?", not "neutral", so I assume you are confused about something.  Implying you have both reasons to think she is an elim, and to think she is a village.  What are those reasons?

-Karn: What aren't you taking chances about? Does this mean you are planning on voting for Karn's lynch next turn? The is a vague statement, that tells us, imo, even less than your "not sure?" that you had for BR.  This is very strange.

Edit: I understand this is your second post, and you wanted to post this cycle to keep your spot, that doesn't change how it reads though.  Though in my head, I do provide context for these statements.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Furamirionind

[DeTess]

@Amanuensis, did you take into account that the sabotage action also has the vote negation possibility? Your point about vote negation was something I'd missed, but since an elim can lose their vote through their anti-defense action, it doesn't really prove anything.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

17 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

This post concerns me a bit.

- Rath: Your gut says village, but you don't think there is evidence for or against? (Not a big deal)

- Mark: I don't understand the relevance of this statement.  We all want to eliminate the elim's vote manip. This also doesn't give us any insight as to what you think about Mark, which is what you said you were going to do.

- BR: You are not sure? Fair enough. However, I would appreciate reasons. You say "Not sure?", not "neutral", so I assume you are confused about something.  Implying you have both reasons to think she is an elim, and to think she is a village.  What are those reasons?

-Karn: What aren't you taking chances about? Does this mean you are planning on voting for Karn's lynch next turn? The is a vague statement, that tells us, imo, even less than your "not sure?" that you had for BR.  This is very strange.

Edit: I understand this is your second post, and you wanted to post this cycle to keep your spot, that doesn't change how it reads though.  Though in my head, I do provide context for these statements.

Right now, I haven't searched through these people's posts to draw any conclusions beyond gut reads. BR hasn't posted yet this cycle, and that's partially why I'm not sure about my position on her.

[Amanuensis]

6 minutes ago, randuir said:

@Amanuensis, did you take into account that the sabotage action also has the vote negation possibility? Your point about vote negation was something I'd missed, but since an elim can lose their vote through their anti-defense action, it doesn't really prove anything.

I actually didn't realize the elim's had a vote negation. I vaguely remember some other factors when I went through the events of D2, but I'd need to look again to gather 'em up. I will admit seeing his vote was negated was the main reason I jumped to fairly-confident.

EDIT: Also didn't realize they could sabotage either, lol. I just read this again and realized you weren't referring to the same thing as Karn and Hemalurgic said.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Amanuensis

[Fifth Scholar]

Note: This cycle will end in four hours. Please submit any orders before it’s too late. 

[BrightnessRadiant]

Sorry for not being active this turn. I've been busy irl. I'll be back next turn. Although I do have some college stuff tomorrow, I should be free in the evening.

Edited December 11, 2018 by BrightnessRadiant

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

I realize I didn't look over Mr. Dr, as he was the other contributor to Snip's lynch.

Looking over his posts from the last turn, it seems his motives were to 1. get information 2. somehow gather suspicion for Karn. He does admit that he has some hesitations in placing a vote on Snip. In actuality, Mr. Dr's vote came before most of the votes (which were tacked on without much given evidence).

This, and the general vibe I'm getting from his posts, I'm giving Mr Doctor a village read.

Hemalurgic Headshot

[+Ark1002]

Well. Snipexe was innocent then.

I saw a PM giving me the spec doc for the other game, and for some reason thought it was for this game. Luckily, I'm not dead!

Ark1002

Edited December 11, 2018 by Kidpen

[Young Bard]

(This post was started in Day 2, but I wasn't able to finish it in time, mostly due to being tired and distracted, and mistiming when I'd be able to get back on to finish it. My apologies. The fact that I'm writing in RP, which I'm less comfortable and familiar with, is also a factor. There was also one half-finished section (which I've deleted because it's no longer the day turn), where I was going to place a vote on Fifi/Brightness Radiant. Also Steel, I couldn't find a way I liked to slip this into the RP, but... yeah, I'm posting entirely in RP this game, which I announced in my signup.)

Night 1

Long after the sun had set on Jancey's first day in Fal Dara, Jancey was escorted into some kind of utilitarian barracks. Restlessly, he turned around on the rough mattress, trying to find some way to sleep comfortably. After several fruitless minutes of this, Jancey sat up, looking around at the other companions in the barracks, all snoring soundly.

May as well go for a walk - see if I spot anything unusual. You'd probably have the best chance of catching a Darkfriend at nighttime, anyway.

Softly, Jancey shuffled into a pair of fluffy slippers - an item that he was now very glad he'd brought with him from Cairhien, and softly moved towards the door. With a gentle push, he tried to open it to the cold air - and failed at the door moved half an inch, and then stopped. Jancey frowned, pushing harder. The door moved outward another half inch - barely enough to peek through the crack in the door to the other side.

There was some kind of bar against the door, fixed against a bracket in the wall. 

Whoever it was, they'd wanted to stop people - wanted to stop Jancey - from moving around that night.

Jancey released the door, and it slid back closed. Frustrated and tired, he lay back down on the bed and stared up at the ceiling.

---

Day 2

"How do people sleep on those beds?" Jancey asked, to anyone who'd listen. "You may as well try sleeping on rocks - I think they'd be about as comfortable. Actually, maybe quite a few animals do sleep on rocks - that seems rather silly of them - why would they do a thing like that? I don't think -"

And that's when Jancey saw the body.

A boy with golden eyes, corpse guarded by wolves that seemed to snarl at those who came too close. Jancey recoiled, toppling backwards into the grass, in a way that probably would have seemed comical under different circumstances. Slowly, his skull began to throb, as it felt like someone had a vice around his skull and was beginning to tighten the screws. His vision began to waver, the world in front of him falling out of focus, and seeming to slowly lose all its colour.

---

Cairhien - Eight years ago

Jancey curled his fingers around the corner of the manor, and slowly, carefully, so as not to slip, shuffled his feet around the thin precipice. 3 stories tall and overlooking a fair portion of Cairhien, the view from where he stood was incredible. The manor itself was Jancey's parents, and was rich and ostentatious with several intricately detailed statues at the front. Jancey had heard whispers between members of the staff that his family didn't have the wealth to support this kind of place, but for the most part, Jancey ignored all that. That sounded like work, and made people all grumpy and annoyed. Jancey figured if he didn't think about things like that at all, he'd be able to be a happy person instead, and avoid becoming grumpy like everyone else.

Faintly, Jancey heard his tutor calling his name from inside the manor, but he ignored it, slowly lowering himself down to sit on the ledge, legs dangling over the side. He knew he wouldn't be found out here - it was his own personal spot, where he got to stare out at the city and wonder about what all the tiny little people down there were doing. He stayed out for over an hour, just watching the sun drift lazily over the sky as people wandered through the town. Eventually, though, as the sun began to set, Jancey regretfully stood back up, heading back around to head into the empty bedroom window.

That was no longer empty.

"Jancey?"

Jancey almost lost his grip, nearly plummeting down to the ground. At this height, the fall wouldn't have killed him, but it would have left him with bruises and scratches, and possibly a couple broken bones, that he'd rather not have to explain away.

He turned around and saw his elder brother, satchel half unpacked on the bed.

"Temril? I didn't know you were coming back."

"It's nice to see you too, brother." His brother made a face at him, trying to lighten the mood a little bit. "You sure you don't want to come in from the window?"

Jancey hurriedly stepped into the window, shutting it behind him. "Do you mind... uhhh... not telling Dad about that?"

Toram chuckled slightly. "Your secret's safe with me."

Jancey nodded back in appreciation.

Toram paused. "You, uhhh, ... I hate to be the soulsucker, but know that you can't keep that kind of thing up forever."

There was an ugly pause, that stretched on for several seconds.

"So, how long are you staying for?" Jancey asked, his voice having a slight edge to it.

Toram paused, then sighed. "A little under a week. Then I'm off to Tear to learn from the swordmasters there."

Jancey nodded, taking that in. "Well, that sounds like fun. Good luck with that."

There was another pause.

"Well, I guess I'll see you around."

"Guess so. Next time, you can come in through the door, OK?"

"Fine... Spoilsport."

---

Night 2

Jancey woke up, head dizzy, seemingly forgotten in the grass. He slowly raised his head, noticing that the last rays of the sun were beginning to darken.

Well, on the upside, I might not be locked in tonight...

Jancey slowly began to clamber up. Someone had killed that man with golden eyes, and maybe Jancey could, in some small part, find out who.

[Mark IV]

5 hours ago, Amanuensis said:

If I happen to die tonight, I ask for people look into Steeldancer, Mr Doctor, Mark IV, Brightness Radiant and randuir most thoroughly.

Sure. As long as that's all you do (and I'm left alive), I don't mind.

9 hours ago, Mark IV said:

That said, I'll likely vote for Rathmaskal or BR or Randuir. Idk why, but they've got my gut stirring. If I can't substantiate my gut feel with some evidence, I'll probably not vote at all.

Yeah. Didn't realise it was a night turn. I thought people were going to be voting today. 

:facepalm:

 

That aside, I'd like to ask: Why have we concluded the Rathmaskal's negation came from some other player? It could have very well been the defend action negation. There was a 40% chance of that. So, yeah. (Unless he mentions it was ebcause of something else, then I probably missed it.)

[Karnatheon]

I don't think anyone has come to a firm conclusion on Rath's vote negate. We've been discussing the possibilities however.

1) Village!Rath Defended. The 20% chance took out his vote.

2) Elim!Rath Sabotaged. The 20% chance took out his vote.

3) Village!Rath voted. Aginor decided to cancel his vote for some reason.

4) Elim!Rath voted. Aginor cancelled his vote in an attempt to get the village to trust him.

Those are the possibilities, make of it what you will.

[Mark IV]

32 minutes ago, Ookla the Ring said:

I don't think anyone has come to a firm conclusion on Rath's vote negate. We've been discussing the possibilities however.

1) Village!Rath Defended. The 20% chance took out his vote.

2) Elim!Rath Sabotaged. The 20% chance took out his vote.

3) Village!Rath voted. Aginor decided to cancel his vote for some reason.

4) Elim!Rath voted. Aginor cancelled his vote in an attempt to get the village to trust him.

Those are the possibilities, make of it what you will.

Ah. Thanks. 

[Fifth Scholar]

The Night is over! Let’s see what comes with the dawn...