Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Sart]

I admit, my theory was tenuous at best, but I needed to get discussion going. While I still suspect some of the high-level players, I also agree that they can't all be evil. Therefore, I will remove my vote from Tion. With my theory, I also mentioned that I suspected Grelin. However, I really don't like to vote for players when they say they will be inactive. Also, Sprenil brought up the point that there hasn't been any objections, so there are probably Ghostbloods voting for him. This could mean a few things:

1. Grelin isn't a Ghostblood, and the GBs will win with today's vote.
2. Grelin is a GB, and some GBs are voting for him to disguise themselves

Unfortunately, Option 2 isn't very likely. At this point in the game, the Ghostbloods would not want to sacrifice one of their own. They're so close to victory, they probably can't help wanting to finish this game up. So, I don't know who to vote for, but for right now I'm going to assume that Grelin is innocent. If that's the case, then there's only one person I can vote for.

 

Macen

 

He claims to be a leader, but he did a good job of staying off my suspicion list. He jumped on the bandwagon against Grelin. More importantly, he claims to have access to a Reverser, and that he encouraged that person to lynch Aodan. On the one hand, that might have been Grelin proving it to Macen, which would bring us back to square one. Furthermore, he encouraged us to share what items we had. I shared that I had a reverser, which was probably a bad idea. I know I'm not GB, so tonight, they can easily kill me and control the votes even more. This game is not looking good for us.

 

If I've made a mistake, and Grelin is a GB, then we have a plan of attack. That would also prove that my original theory had some merit. Also, that would draw heavy suspicion on Jost, for being a token defender of Grelin. At this point, I hope I'm right, but I'm pretty sure we're going to lose this one. And I hate losing.

[Wyrmhero]

I shared that I had a reverser, which was probably a bad idea.

 

Claiming it publicly was bad, as was telling us who you told - That sort of thing should be kept hidden so someone else can't use it against you. Telling a person about an item isn't too bad, since you know where that information is, and you know who knew you had one if you were attacked. Unfortunately, you've changed it so that now the Ghostbloods definitely know.

 

Half an hour (or so) to go guys. This vote could be the deciding factor in this game. one way or another. The suspense is really painful, particularly to someone on GMT where it's already late in the evening and I'm too tired to think straight and want to go to bed

Edited May 24, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[A Joe in the Bush]

Jost. How did he ruin your plan, again? (As I recall, you proposed several of them.)

 

On Day one, I proposed that We not Vote, and simply prepare the Spanreed people for their Night Convo's. Everything Was going Swimmingly, but then Aspren accused himself.

[GreyPilgrim]

Well, guys, you are making the wrong decision. I guess if I have bad luck; I was off the map at the beginning of Day 4 in Game 4 and died that day as well. Since you will find that I am innocent very soon, accept this information as fact:

I have had a spanreed and a Reverser since the beginning of the game. I did not use the Reverser until Day 3, when I reversed Alv's vote on Tion to Faialen. I falsely believed that one of the spanreed holders would definitely be a GB, so when I discovered Faialen was the third initial holder, I was sure he was a GB. I was working with Tion, Jost, and Ace through a PM with Ace only to lynch Faialen.

My personal suspects are (sorry, don't have time to explain): Awes, Sprenil, Khas, and Wurum.

Well, thank you guys for a good game. Though it is not going well for the Nobles. I am not confident. Four days, and still no GBs killed. Grellin out.

[Macen]

Smart. I have been coordinating things since day one, I don't think that's been a secret to anyone. Meta and I decided to vote for grey. We aren't 100% but either you, grey or the other reverser is gb.

Alvs vote was switched by grey to prove to me he has a reverser.

I encouraged you to share your items via pm so meta and I could figure out what's going on. And try to catch people in a lie.

How did you get your reverser? If you already said and I did the notice, sorry. Im on my phone and it's hard to check things.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Macen

[Sart]

Well, I don't like the train that's going on here. I'm worried that he isn't innocent. At this point, my best guess is Jost, since he conveniently argued against Grelin once Sprenil mentioned that no one else was. That means I retract my vote from Macen. I'll change your vote to him too, so you know I'm telling the truth about my reverser. I got it at the beginning of the game, so I can't back up my story. I know I'm not GB, but if you decide to kill me now that you know that, I guess I'm okay with it.

[GreyPilgrim]

It just occurred to me, are you guys only voting for me because my reputation is Ghostblood right now?

[A Joe in the Bush]

*edit* will someone please delete this post. For some reason my phone double posted.

If you look between the Edit and Report Buttons, you'll see a Hide button. This will delte your Post.

 

Well, I don't like the train that's going on here. I'm worried that he isn't innocent. At this point, my best guess is Jost, since he conveniently argued against Grelin once Sprenil mentioned that no one else was. That means I retract my vote from Macen. I'll change your vote to him too, so you know I'm telling the truth about my reverser. I got it at the beginning of the game, so I can't back up my story. I know I'm not GB, but if you decide to kill me now that you know that, I guess I'm okay with it.

 

People have been trying to Convince me from day one that Grey is a GB. I went along with It at first, but when I got asked to Instigate a Vote for Gry, I looked for a Way to do it, anf Found Evidence to His Innocence. I defended Grey after Aspren said that because that had been the First Time I had managed to Get on since before Grey got hiv first Vote.

[Mailliw73]

Night 4: Innocent Bloodshed Tae

Night 4:

When the nobility awoke to a double death and one of them a Shardblade holder, they were grieved and began searching harder for the traitors. Digging deep, Tion proclaimed his suspicion of Grellin. The consensus of the nobility was almost absolute.

Like the day before with Brightlord Faialen's death, the nobility cheered as Grellin was dragged to his doom. A few sat away and refused to watched. They believed in Grellin's innocence and were upset that he would be put to death. If he had had a Spanreed and a reverser from the beginning of this whole thing like he said he had, he could be a great asset.

Grellin was hung and his items were given to his heir to keep.

Grellin was a Noble[/green] with a Spanreed and a reverser.

The night begins now and will end at 3:30 Pm MDT/22:30 GMT

Votes:

Grellin (6): Awes, Wurum, Tion, Jim Bob, Khas, Lucal

Jost (2): Ace, Saritu

Tion (1): Alv

Sprenil (1): Jost

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

Welp... this is looking worse and worse.

[Wyrmhero]

Dammit, that was the best lead we had, really... While assuming the Ghostbloods started with a Spanreed was a flawed argument, I was rather swayed by the fact that he held a Reverser and used it on the day that the Ghostbloods didn't use it. Storms, at this point in the game, I would suspect anyone with a Reverser.

 

There are must be at least three Reversers floating around, since Pailan and Grellin were both innocents who started with one, and we have seen the Ghostbloods use their Reverser before Pailan's death. Running on this train of logic, I see a few possible scenarios:

 

1a) There are three Reversers. Grellin and Pailan started with one at the beginning of the game. The Ghostbloods got an Emotion Bracelet from Pailan's death, and Saritu got the Reverser. There is still someone out there with a Reverser who is a Ghostblood.

 

1b) The Ghostbloods got a Reverser from Pailan's death. Saritu is a Ghostblood, as is someone else with a Reverser who got it from Pailan's death.

 

2a) There are four (or more!) Reversers. Grellin and Saritu started with one at the beginning of the game, as did Pailan and a Ghostblood. The Ghostbloods either got a Reverser or an Emotion Bracelet from Pailan's death.

 

2b) Saritu is the Ghostblood, and the fourth person is an innocent.

 

I can't believe that there would be four Reversers in this game. It would just be way too easy for the Ghostbloods to get a controlling vote. So I would concentrate on scenario one, and question whether Saritu is innocent or not.

 

For the most part, this boils down to whether he started with the Reverser (in which case, he's a Ghostblood) or whether we think that Pailan would set Saritu up as his heir and he inherited the Reverser. It's certainly possible. Even if they weren't discussing things together, they're right next to each other on the list, which is pretty much a good enough reason as any if you're not in any groups with anyone.

 

That's just analysis from the items Grellin had, though. We can do proper vote analysis in the morning, I think.

 

We just have to really, really hope we get things right when it comes down to it.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Actually Wurum, there are two scenarios you are overlooking. It's obvious the GB have played us for fools on our assumption that there were three spanreeds and at least one was a GB. They either never had one, or they realized early on it would be a red flag item and chose not to use it. They just sat back and watched us kill three spanreed holders in a row. Now, I fear they are doing the same thing to us with the reversers. Here are two scenarios where they could be casting suspicion on anyone with a reverser:

1. There were only three reversers in the game. After using it to kill Tors, they knew it would be a hot item and having one on them would cast instant suspicion. The same night they killed Pailan, they also gave their reverser to her. Her death showed that she had a reverser and everyone just assumed she had it from the start. If the roll resulted in them getting the reverser back, not a huge problem. They just don't use it at that point and hope the spy doesn't see it. In the meantime, everyone else who comes forward with a reverser is a higher suspect because one has already been identified as clean. Like with the spanreeds, it makes everyone who openly has one a target. I think since no one came forward about being Pailan's heir, the GB lucked out and she had actually made one of them her heir so they got both items.

2. There were four Reversers in the game. 3 on our side, one on the GB side. They knew Pailan had a reverser and they were hot items so before killing her they gave her their reverser. Since she already had one, it would disappear leaving only three in the game and one identified as clean. From that point on, it's the same scenario as possibility one.

I'll admit I am not unbiased in coming up with these scenarios. I've been thinking about them since the moment Tors died because I have a reverser and I knew they would be a suspicious item from day one. I told Failan, Ace, and Jost I had it on the second day after I felt I could trust them so they can verify I've had it from before Pailan's death. If I had been GB and planned on using one of the above scenarios, telling them I had a reverser would have been stupid since those plans involve ditching the reverser and casting doubt on the others.

It's still very possible me or Saritu are the GB who started with the reverser or Saritu got his from Pailan. I know my own innocence though and the more I think about how the GB played us with the spanreeds, the less suspicious I am of Saritu as well. The reversers are your best lead at this point so I completely understand if y'all go after one of us, but I fear that the GB are once again playing us for fools with items we only think we know the exact number for and assume are actually in their possession at this point.

[Macen]

I feel like the lack of an ability to confirm roles is killing us this game.

I'm camping and tubing today so I won't be on much. I'll check back after tubing and get actions in but I won't be able to communicate much. Sorry guys.

[Wyrmhero]

Actually Wurum, there are two scenarios you are overlooking. It's obvious the GB have played us for fools on our assumption that there were three spanreeds and at least one was a GB. They either never had one, or they realized early on it would be a red flag item and chose not to use it. They just sat back and watched us kill three spanreed holders in a row. Now, I fear they are doing the same thing to us with the reversers. Here are two scenarios where they could be casting suspicion on anyone with a reverser:

1. There were only three reversers in the game. After using it to kill Tors, they knew it would be a hot item and having one on them would cast instant suspicion. The same night they killed Pailan, they also gave their reverser to her. Her death showed that she had a reverser and everyone just assumed she had it from the start. If the roll resulted in them getting the reverser back, not a huge problem. They just don't use it at that point and hope the spy doesn't see it. In the meantime, everyone else who comes forward with a reverser is a higher suspect because one has already been identified as clean. Like with the spanreeds, it makes everyone who openly has one a target. I think since no one came forward about being Pailan's heir, the GB lucked out and she had actually made one of them her heir so they got both items.

2. There were four Reversers in the game. 3 on our side, one on the GB side. They knew Pailan had a reverser and they were hot items so before killing her they gave her their reverser. Since she already had one, it would disappear leaving only three in the game and one identified as clean. From that point on, it's the same scenario as possibility one.

 

You're right, I'd completely missed the fact that it's possible that the Ghostbloods gave away a Reverser in order to avoid suspicion. However, I don't think this is very likely, as Pailan would know if someone had given them an item, and would presumably convey such a thing in a Death Rattle. At least, I'd hope that would be the case.

 

As for giving away a Reverser and having it disappear because of that, can we have confirmation on what happens to duplicate items, Mailliw? Do they just disappear for good, or do they get randomly given to someone or something?

Edited May 25, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[the Gleeman]

I'm sorry I've not been active this weekend. I've had a load of things to do with graduations and Memorial day where I'm from. 

 

Hmmm. Could there have been only two-ish reversers at the start of the game with more added in by the artifabrian before their death?

 

Edit: color

Edited May 25, 2014 by the Gleeman

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Pretty sure we lynched our only artifabrian on day one. I expect with all the talk about reversers someone would have spoken up if they'd been given one by an artifabrian by this point.

[the Gleeman]

There goes that theory. Sanderson Elimination why must you make me think so hard? Does anyone even read these anymore?

[Mailliw73]

"Those with the blood of ghosts are among you, and they will stop at nothing to destroy you. Heed all warnings; trust no one. Violence now is the only solution."

-Subject was a soldier who enjoyed walking. Collected on Chach Nan Shash, 7 seconds before death.

Edit: Wurum, an object given to someone who already has that item will cause one to disappear.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Macen]

Mail. Can I request an extension? I have been on the river all day and got super burnt and am shaking like I have hypothermia. I have a lot of info I need to analyze and won't be able to tonight.

I'm sorry to everyone. I'm not sure who I sent PMs to over the last 8 hours but if they made no sense please let me clarify later. I haven't been and won't be in a clear frame of mind until I take care of my body.

I'm sorry again to everyone for the inconvenience I promise I'll do my best not to let it happen again.

*Note* I might post some pictures of my wicked sun burns tomorrow. I look like what you would expect a dying vampire to look like.

P.S. With how bad my hands were shaking it took me 30 minutes to type this in the tent. Don't tell my girlfriend.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Not sure if you saw it Macen, but Maili had already extended this night cycle until 3:30pm MDT tomorrow so you have plenty of time. Hope you feel better.

[Macen]

Ha, I didn't notice that Awes. I am feeling better. I can't wear a shirt right now, but other than that I'm doing great.

Thanks for the concern.

[Macen]

After doing some analysis of the information I have. I'm fairly certain that Meta is a GB. If this turns out to be the case I can safely lay claim to nearly single handedly being the reason we lost this game.

I had the trust of quite a few nobles, half of which I have been the main person behind lynching them. The only other person who has as much influence is Meta. Since I know that I'm not GB I can only assume it is him. If he isn't GB then whoever the ghostblood are need to go start a sindicate, because they played this game brilliantly.

(It was played brilliantly regardless).

[Alvron]

We havn't lost yet. If the Grandbow user takes out Tion then we will have a chance. With his plate cracked, Tion would die and hopefully we would get back the Shardblade, leaving them with only one kill a night again. Then all we have to do is lynch another during the day and we will be right back in this.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Umm, Yeah, Meta's Plate isn't Cracked anymore. He switched Plate with Macen to try to get the GB's to Waste another attack on him. The fact that they didn't bother, even though They thought he was weakened, should say something about the Loyalties of Macen and Meta. One of them is a GB, Probably.

[Wyrmhero]

Well, tonight we are either made or broken, gentlemen. Unfortunately, if Tion is GB, then its definitely broken. We just don't have the time to fix the mistake of trusting him if he is.