Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Wyrmhero]

Well, yesterday was a bit of a confusing vote, it seems. I agree with A Smart Guy's thoughts on it, that we have a Ghostblood trying to kill Faialen, and two nobles trying to save him. This is quite useful, since it implies that we have a Reverser on our side. The Emotion Bracelet should be a lot less useful for the Ghostbloods, though it's annoying if they have it, since that means we don't, and that's the only way we could catch them in the act.

 

I am suspicious of those who claimed he was evil. As the three of you in that PM group all voted for him, that suggests that either Tion, Jost,  Ace or the Spanreed holder is a Ghostblood. There's a chance you did just all convince yourselves, I admit, but it does seem likely that one of you is a mole.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

(If someone already brought this up please ignore me)

I was reading back through the thread to see if I could make some sense of what's happened so far in this game and was reminded that Tors oringinally signed up as an artifabrian. Did you do that on purpose Maili or was it just a crazy coincidence that he actually ended up with that role?

[A Joe in the Bush]

I think It was Fate. Last game, Tors had a Reputation of Pahn Kahl, and got that Role.

[Kasimir]

Trying to make sense of what's going on with the vote is....confusing. There are possibilities, but trying to tie them to what they mean in terms of motives is a real doozy.

 

Offhand: Saritu--I think it's also a possibility someone used a painknife on one of the initial three people who voted for Dust. Or, if we're working with the Saving Noble Faialen angle--perhaps someone tried to painknife Tion thinking it would block his Shardbearer ability? (That would have to be before it was confirmed that the Shardbearer ability could not be invoked by that point in the day...)

[Mailliw73]

Day 4: Double Death Sea 2

Day 4:

The night had started peacefully enough compared to what had gone on during the day. A prankster was busy gluing all the furniture to the ceiling of the meeting hall to make it look like the room was upside down to the rest of the nobility. Another trained to build muscle and to be able to defend against the Ghostbloods.

Soon enough though, the trust had snapped and Fnorf crept towards Jain's house stealthily trying to not be seen. As he approached, he summoned his Shardblade. It coalesced into his hand as drops of water dripped off. He had been through so much to get the Blade. It had taken his entire fortune. It had been worth it though. A Shardblade was invaluable. Fnorf sliced a hole in the window of the Shin man's house. He crept through, quietly slinking towards the bedroom.

A toy panda that the eccentric Shin had brought with him was grinning evilly at Fnorf as he entered the room. Shivers ran down his spine as the panda shifted to stare at Jain. Fnorf brought the Blade up and down into Jain's chest. Jain's eyes flashed open and burned, his soul cut by the Blade.

Fnorf crept out the hole he had made and dismissed his Shardblade, walking back to his home. All of a sudden, a regular blade plunged through his back and he collapsed to the ground, his Shardblade appearing next to him. The murderer with the bloody sword grinned. He had found a Shardblade at last. The King had never stood a chance against his blade and now no one ever would.

Jain was a Noble with a Painrial. Fnorf was a Noble with a Shardblade.

The day begins now and will end at 3:30 pmMDT/22:30 GMT on Saturday.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Macen]

Well.. That was about the WORST thing that could have happened today.

Does that mean that Fnorf got the Painrial, then the GB got one of the two items. Or they got the Shard Blade for sure?

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Good question. I think It would depend on if the kills technically happen simultaneously or if they happen in the order the write up suggests.

[Macen]

They would have to happen in that order. Fnorf couldn't kill someone when he is dead...

[Awesomeness Summoned]

From an RP standpoint, yes... but did Maili lay out an actual order for which happens first, the GB kill, bow, or blade? For instance, if the GB and Fnorf had both attacked and killed each other, would the items trade to each person and then go to each heir, disappear, or would one of them have both items and then both go to that person's heir?

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Wait... why are we even debating about this? The write up clearly states that the person who killed Fnorf took the blade.

[Macen]

True point. I just wonder what happened to the painrial than. It SHOULD have gone to Fnorf..

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Yes I imagine it went to whoever was Fnorf's heir.

[Aspren]

I thought Jain declared Jost to be his heir?

[Mailliw73]

Item's actions come before the GB kill. So The writeup has the order correct. I didn't mention it, but Fnorf did get the Painrial. The GB did not. one item always goes to the killer, regardless of alignment. Edited May 22, 2014 by Mailliw73

[Macen]

Yeah Mail. That's why I was wondering if the GB got the shardblade for sure. I'm assuming the painrial didn't technically get taken by Ffnord because he died before he could take it. Just a technicality. :/

*EDIT* Wording.

Edited May 22, 2014 by Macen

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

Well that was... not the best outcome. 

[Mailliw73]

"They welcomed them in, trusted them and they were betrayed. The Everstorm comes! Will there be anyone left to face it?"

-Collected on Chach Nan Palah, 5 seconds before death. Subject was a sergeant.

[Alvron]

I doubt that night could have gone much worse.  The only positive I can think of is that should any spies find someone with a shardblade then we can be almost certain that they would be a GB as I don't think there would be more than one blade in the game.

 

My vote today will again be for Tion.  My reasons from the last day round haven’t changed.  However a couple of new things did happen since then that should be considered.

 

1. Tion called a shard challenge when there wasn’t enough time in the day.  This could mean that he was unaware of the rule about there needing to be at least 24 hours left, he could’ve forgotten about the rule or it was a ploy to get people to lynch Aonar while making it seem like one of the first two options.  Given that Tion has played far more games than most of us here I doubt it was the first option.  (For those that don’t know, Tion plays on at least one other forum which has far more complex rules than ours.)

 

2. My vote was switched from Tion to Aonar.  This could be the GB trying to defend one of their own but I doubt it as Tion was never in much danger of being lynched and I doubt the GB would make such an obvious move given how well they have remained hidden.

 

As such my suspicion of Tion has lessened but he is still the one I am most suspicious of being a GB.

 

Ultimately I think Tion is either a GB playing an aggressive defence or he is being played for one of the Ten Fools.  (No offence Tion, these are just my thoughts.)

Edited May 23, 2014 by Alvron

[Wyrmhero]

"I for one welcome our new Ghostblood overlords," Wurum said, his voice quiet. Fearspren appeared around him as he spoke to the group, or more specifically, to the four-or-so people in the group within the group. "I would also like to remind them that I have no loyalty to anyone, so there's no need for me to die, and don't require large bribes to change sides. Just help my house, that's all I ask. That's all I need for you to gain my loyalty. I never liked the old king anyway."

 

My thoughts when reading that: 'Two deaths? Our Shardblader/Grandarcher is finally doing something! ...Huh, wonder why the Ghostbloods went for Jain. He'd probably be lynched today anyway. Maybe to make sure Tion is weak tomorrow night. Fnorf is a Ghostblood? I wouldn't have expected that. He's done very well to avoid suspic... Oh. ...Oh... Storm it.'

 

Yes, we are in a bad position. There are 14 players left. I would guess that 4 of these are Ghostbloods. As such, there are a minimum of two days left in this game. Gleeman, Adolin, Kasimir, Luckat. VOTE. We cannot win if more than a third of the guys on our side refuse to give out or gather information. If you don't vote, then we might as well be playing with 6 people against 4, which means the Ghostbloods have already won. We need to hit a Ghostblood today. That means we need more discussion than ever before.

 

So, they went after Fnorf. It boils down to either someone was told that Fnorf had a Shardblade, it was a random hit, it was a revenge hit, or they have a Spy (since roles aren't definitely noble).

 

1) If Fnorf told someone that he had a Shardblade, or if a Spy had found it out, then we can't get any information from this. If they did have one, the fact that the Ghostbloods have a Spy is more-or-less useless to us at this stage in the game. If Fnorf told someone, that would be key. But that would require that Fnorf told a Ghostblood with someone else in the conversation as well.

 

2) If it was random, then we have no new information to go on, other than who they haven't hit. Tion looks more and more like a good target every day. Tion still (presumably) has weakened Shardplate, so they could have taken him out at any time. They might have been worried that Jain was defending him, but in which case, why did they not go for Jain?

 

3) A revenge killing would be the most obvious, and perhaps the least intelligent for the Ghostbloods to go for - Though it's worked well for them today if it is with the item they gained from it. Fnorf only voted for one person, and he did so twice - Jim Bob Dirt, who was in danger of death yesterday. Jim has also had votes against him changed twice. As such, today I am voting Jim Bob Dirt.

 

Now, talk as much as possible today and tomorrow. All of you, especially the four who haven't voted at all. If you don't vote today, or at least discuss today (though voting helps add discussion), then you'll miss your chance for basically the entire game, and might as well not be playing. ...Having said discuss, I will be absent for most of the next 24 hours, so I'm relying on you all

Edited May 23, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[GreyPilgrim]

Unfortunately, I am going to be away for a few days so will be unable to focus on the game for this cycle. Please pardon my absence.

[Macen]

Could whoever was the Heir of Sphinx please contact meta via the PM you have with him and let him know. It is a big hole in the information we have. Thank you.

*EDIT* At this point in the game, we need to consolidate information. The only items of dire consequence we keep hidden are the soulcaster and the grand bow. The shardblade is already theirs (unless they have another one). The reason i say this is, the GB already have the items and numbers they need to win. We NEED to lynch one today, so the more information we have, the better chance of a lynch we have.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Macen

[Macen]

Also, some additional knowledge for you:

Alv, I was the one who had your vote switched. Wasn't anything about who or why, I just chose a random person who was voting on the next highest votes (at the time I set it up) to have a Reverser switch the vote of to prove they had it (and to help us lynch Aonar, which turned out to be a fail).

Fnorf implied he was betrayed, but unless both of the people I'm working with are GB he didn't reveal that he had it to them (they were in a PM with him, not me). So, I don't know who he revealed it to, if anyone.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Macen

[Sart]

Also, some additional knowledge for you:

Alv, I was the one who had your vote switched. Wasn't anything about who or why, I just chose a random person who was voting on the next highest votes (at the time I set it up) to have a Reverser switch the vote of to prove they had it (and to help us lynch Aonar, which turned out to be a fail).

Fnorf implied he was betrayed, but unless both of the people I'm working with are GB he didn't reveal that he had it to them (they were in a PM with him, not me). So, I don't know who he revealed it to, if anyone.

 

 

What if they are both GB?

 

I didn't really suspect Tion until you told me that key piece of information. Now I think Grelin, Tion, and Jost are all Ghostbloods. Of course, that means that all of our spanreed holders are evil, so we have to be discussing things publicly. Here's what I think happened. Early on in Day One, Jost, knowing that Grelin had started with a spanreed, suggested the plan of having each conversation include exactly two people. The GBs encouraged us to be open in PMs, since there was a "third party." However, it was only an illusion. Each GB PM included two GBs and one regular player.  They conned the regular player in the message, found out what items he had, and then killed whoever had the best ones. They controlled the communication, and thus killed us.

 

As to why I now suspect Tion. He sent me a lovely PM with Jost as the "third party." This means that Tion had the same partner for at least 3 separate messages (Mine, Claincy's, and Macen's) That makes no sense if they were on our side, because they should've had different partners to hopefully keep one message secure. Therefore, I'm voting for Tion. He already has one vote, so he's my best chance to kill one of them.

 

Also, I was the one who switched Tion's vote to Jim Bob Dirt. I started the game out with the Reverser, although that was my first time using it. I don't suspect Jim Bob Dirt, mostly because the votes against him make no sense. Grelin was the first one to bring up not voting, yet Jost conveniently forgot about that. They've kept up this campaign against him because he isn't voting, although there are 3 other mostly inactive players that they aren't targeting. It's now or never. If Tion isn't guilty, I apologize, we're all dead.

Edited May 23, 2014 by a smart guy

[Macen]

 

What if they are both GB?

 

I didn't really suspect Tion until you told me that key piece of information. Now I think Grelin, Tion, and Jost are all Ghostbloods. Of course, that means that all of our spanreed holders are evil, so we have to be discussing things publicly. Here's what I think happened. Early on in Day One, Jost, knowing that Grelin had started with a spanreed, suggested the plan of having each conversation include exactly two people. The GBs encouraged us to be open in PMs, since there was a "third party." However, it was only an illusion. Each GB PM included two GBs and one regular player.  They conned the regular player in the message, found out what items he had, and then killed whoever had the best ones. They controlled the communication, and thus killed us.

 

As to why I now suspect Tion. He sent me a lovely PM with Jost as the "third party." This means that Tion had the same partner for at least 3 separate messages (Mine, Claincy's, and Macen's) That makes no sense if they were on our side, because they should've had different partners to hopefully keep one message secure. Therefore, I'm voting for Tion. He already has one vote, so he's my best chance to kill one of them.

 

Also, I was the one who switched Tion's vote to Jim Bob Dirt. I started the game out with the Reverser, although that was my first time using it. I don't suspect Jim Bob Dirt, mostly because the votes against him make no sense. Grelin was the first one to bring up not voting, yet Jost conveniently forgot about that. They've kept up this campaign against him because he isn't voting, although there are 3 other mostly inactive players that they aren't targeting. It's now or never. If Tion isn't guilty, I apologize, we're all dead.

It's a good theory, but that would mean I am also a ghostblood. (I am in half of the conversations with Tion, joe is in the other half. Which means Joe, Tion and I have been trying to find the GB in our chat with the 3 of us with all 3 of us being GB. Which, would be pretty silly.

While I agree there is a decent chance one of us is a GB, I extremely doubt 2 of us are. Since I know I'm not a ghostblood, I know all 3 of us aren't. I've been in a lot of PM groups and most of them were 1 on 1, and recently 3 person. Early on I was also in a couple 4 person PM groups.

Past games have proven that more than 3-4 people in a PM group is a bit too many in most scenarios. It's too hard to catch someone in a lie.

*Note* Also, if all 3 of us are GB then we are playing this brilliantly. The chances of us being in the positions we are, and all be ghostbloods, would take an act of true brilliance or blind luck.

*EDIT* Added the note and changed color.

Edited May 23, 2014 by Macen

[Awesomeness Summoned]

I see three explanations for how we've gotten to the point we are now:

 

1. The ghostbloods have been working right up front from the start to orchestrate things which has ultimately resulted in them controlling all forms of secret conversation.

 

suspects: Tion, Ace, Jost, Grellin, Wurum

 

Likelihood: Low. If this is the case, I won't feel bad about losing because it was masterfully done.

 

2. The Ghostbloods have been trying to walk the edge of looking active in the game while not really taking the lead too often or drawing much attention

 

Suspects: Jim Bob Dirt, Alv, Sprenil, Saritu

 

Likelihood: Good. Effective way to play when pm communications are limited.

 

3. The Ghostbloods have mostly been sitting back and letting us cut each other's throats.

 

Suspects: Lucal, Khas, Cara, Humperdinck

 

Likelihood: Possible but would have required that the luck of the draw selected mostly new players and players that traditionally play passively.

 

I know we could easily have a mixed bag (two really active players and two really passive players) but after thinking through everything that has happened, I'm leaning towards option 2 as the most likely. Meta, Macen, and Joe are all talented players but it would have just relied on too much luck to achieve what they did if they were GB.

 

I also agree with a few of the arguments Wurum made so I am going to go ahead and vote for Jim Bob Dirt at this point.

Edited May 24, 2014 by Awesomeness Summoned