Long Game 5: Noble Secrets

[Metacognition]

It was fun while it lasted. For those of you wondering what we're talking about; when you hit 666 reputation, you become the TORTURER OF HERALDS. It only lasts while you're at 666 reputation though, so it's easy to miss, but I couldn't help but incorporate it into my post after getting attacked in the night!

 

I've got to get some sleep, but I'll go over my thoughts and suspicions when I wake up. Right now, I'm the closest we have to having a confirmed player, but I'm not going to last long. If the person with the Panrial protects me tonight, I can survive for that long, then I'll be giving up the Plate so the Ghostbloods can't get it if they kill me. 

[Lightsworn Panda]

I get what you were intending, but I think it's a bit unfair to suddenly grow wings, enlarge yourself and gain a sexy deep baritone.

[Wyrmhero]

Did the loudmouthed noble really have to go and boast about such a thing? It wasn't a good thing that people hated Tion enough to want to kill him, not in Wurum's opinion. Well, it meant the Ghostbloods wouldn't be killing him, which was a benefit, but in general terms. He wouldn't go around shouting to the Heralds that he was attacked. And showing off his Shardplate like that. At least it meant that the noble was most likely safe.

 

...Unless he'd managed to annoy his friends in the Ghostbloods enough that they'd turned on him. Which he could definitely see happening with Tion. But that was perhaps a little too strange to be the truth. No, he might not be able to trust Tion, but he seemed to at least be on the side of the nobility.

 

It's good that the person who was hit has come forward, since hiding that fact only helps the Ghostbloods. Unfortunately, the fact that it was Tion doesn't tell us too much, since it could just be they were going for an active player with experience. However, since no-one died, we can also assume that everyone has the same items they started with at the moment, which means our spies can possibly still discover innocence tonight (since Tors apparently had no items, and I doubt people would give them away this early in the game).

 

My only real suspicion at this point is of Jim Bob Dirt for his rather strongly worded reply to Fnorf as to why he wouldn't vote. But there are good arguments for his Innocence. The fact that it is so strongly worded makes me feel as though he isn't evil. Unless it's a double bluff, but there wasn't really a reason for it at that time on the first day, particularly since a Ghostblood could apparently change a vote away from him.

 

The fact that the Reverser was used on a vote for Jim Bob Dirt specifically doesn't really mean anything in my opinion; any vote could've been changed and it would have had the same effect. I think the Ghostbloods just wanted the irony of Tors' killing vote being one from himself. In fact, I doubt that the Ghostbloods would have used the Reverser on the vote of one of their own anyway, just because there was no need to. As such, I'm inclined to think of Jim as innocent.

 

So I'm afraid that I don't really hold anyone in my sights at the moment for guilt. However, I feel we should start the actual discussion as early as possible, and so therefore I would quite like Jost to just explain why he voted along with Meta, when he advocated no kill on the first day, and his vote stopped it being a tie. No offence meant Jost, I'm just nervous about the fact that you (at least on the first day) have two people declaring you their heirs already. Would be good to have some reassurances about who they picked.

Edited May 16, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Sphinx]

If the Painrial is known to be protecting Tion, then there's a decent chance that Ace is going to be the Ghostbloods' target tonight. If there's multiple painrials, we may be in luck, but unless they are somehow able to coordinate, that's not something we can rely on. Alternatively, there's a possibility that the thief, if a ghostblood, has stolen it for the ghostbloods. Or that the thief, if not a ghostblood, stole it to make it so that we didn't know where it was anymore. Alternatively, the thief might have gotten lucky and nabbed someone else's item by random guess. While it would make sense to think that people wouldn't be passing around items just yet, given how many people are quickly declaring heirs, I'm not sure we can state with confidence that everyone has their original items.

 

It is probable that whoever has the shardblade and whoever has the grandbow still has them. The odds of the spies hitting the two out of thirty people with them either last night or tonight do not strike me as particularly promising. Even worse is the fact that the spies may not all be nobles. I think the spies are going to be most useful if they hit on a ghostblood who has gotten the deceased person's items (but only if we know what items that person had in the first place, which is something people may wish to keep in mind when writing death cries). This is a game where the most concrete confirmation we will get of if someone is a ghostblood or not, is people using the emotion bracelet and discovering either a ghostblood making the ghostblood kill, or someone giving items to someone under a heavy cloud of suspicion. Or someone with an alerter getting lucky, although I'm unclear whether the alerter will tell someone the person who tried to perform the action? There is no way to determine someone's innocence with perfect confidence, unless they started out with one of the main shards.

 

All this is to say, it is even more important in this game than otherwise that we push for discussion, as passive accumulation of information is going to be quite poor. That said, I need to go think/stare at the previous day before I start throwing around particular names.

[18th Shard]

I have been contacted by a Spanreed user, and told by an authoritive source there are three. This source revealed one other spanreed user. Due to this contact, I know there is only one spanreed user who has not contacted me. Please PM me and I will have the information distributed to at least 5 people through my Spanreed contact. Meta is one of these.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

There are already a couple people who know the identity of all three identified spanreed holders (not going to say one way or another if I am one of those people but what I'm saying can be corroborated), at least they claim to know who they all are. It is important that the GB do not identify all three holders and the more people who have knowledge of their identities the likelier it is that the GB will figure it out. We also do not want all three spanreed holders to know who each other are since it is a pretty high likelihood one of them is GB.

 

I think your plan of giving that information to 5 different people almost guarantees the GB will get that information. Yes, a couple people should have that knowledge in order to snoop out the GB should one or two of the spanreeds die but 6-8 people is way too many. If that last spanreed holder chooses to send their identity to you, fine, that's their decision on who they want to know about themselves but I would suggest you don't pass it around to more people than who already knows.

 

You fishing for that information like this bothers me more than just a little but I can see the logic of why you'd want to make sure a few people know the identity of the spanreeds in case they start getting knocked off so I won't jump to any conclusions just yet.

 

What does an "authoritative" source mean? The only person who fits that description is Maili and I doubt he would be telling you the number of spanreeds

[Macen]

I would agree with Awesome. I am one of two that I know of at the moment that know all 3 spanreed holders. The other person and I are only certain that we share 2 that we know, so there could be 4 total. I would advise against revealing who the other spanreed holders are. I've been doing my best to keep this information very confined because at least one of them is GB. If the GB found out all of our spanreed holders we would be in a world of hurt.

As for alerters. How I read it was that they only show the action, not the source of the action. Which essentially means, the only way to catch a GB for SURE is to use an emotion bracelet on them when they do the GB attack. Even then, we don't know how Mail is going to word it. He may just say "X used an attack".

[A Joe in the Bush]

So I'm afraid that I don't really hold anyone in my sights at the moment for guilt. However, I feel we should start the actual discussion as early as possible, and so therefore I would quite like Jost to just explain why he voted along with Meta, when he advocated no kill on the first day, and his vote stopped it being a tie. No offence meant Jost, I'm just nervous about the fact that you (at least on the first day) have two people declaring you their heirs already. Would be good to have some reassurances about who they picked.

 

Originally, I advocated that NO ONE voted on Day 1. That way, there could be no possible deaths, I posted my Plan here. But then Aspren called for his Suicide, and Meta obliged him. So my Plan had already failed, so I knew that I had to vote. I waited till the Last time I had a Chance to, so that I could see all the different Defenses and Arguments, and Meta's Did make the Most Sense. So I voted for Tors. Yes, my votes topped the Tie, but I couldn't be certain that a Reverser or a Person changed their vote. If there had been a tie, the Reverser would have had a choice of people to kill. Which he still did somehow.

 

As for my, What's the word for someone who declares you a Heir? As for the Fact that Macen and Jain declared me their Heir, Macen said so Right Here. this is the 3rd game we've worked together, and the Last Two, I was Evil.  As for Jain, He drank a Cup of Strong Tea? I'm not certain why, Here's his Post though.

Edited May 16, 2014 by The Final Joe

[Metacognition]

As the day wore on, Tion's rage didn't fade. The arrogance of these "Ghostbloods" was great indeed. First they killed the king and then they tried to take out the future King! 

 

Though his anger didn't fade, eventually his reasoning and logic pervaded it and he set to work. He spent the rest of the morning having his scribes write out a long-winded missive and then he sent his criers out among his people. It read as follows:

(Okay, not exactly as follows since I don't want to try to RP in some of the game mechanics and such, but you get the general gist.)

 

I'm just going to list each of my suspicions and leave you guys to decide whether any of my thoughts have any merit. This way, if I die later, you'll have most of my thoughts laid out. Since this is only day 2, I don't know if they'll be worth anything, but you'll have them all the same. 

 

Sprenil - 

 

In an attempt to assuage anyone's suspicion as to my sanity (that is, confirm my lack thereof), and in what is arguably the most stupid and possibly brilliant (I'm seriously hoping that it is the latter) move ever made in an elimination game (though I suppose there have been worse), I ask that I be voted for.

 

That right, I'm asking you to vote for me. As in, put my name in blood-coloured letters with the expectation that a sufficient number of the said red-ed names-of-mine will result in my permanent departure from the land of the living.

 

I'll repeat that, vote for me.

 

If you're innocent Tulir, Aspren will likely be joining you shortly. 

 

I made this claim because if Tors turned out to be innocent (which he did), then that means that at least two innocent people had voted for him. Now that might not seem like much, but by boiling it down to one or the other, it makes it so the Ghostbloods have to play it safe, just in case (the fact that I have the Shardplate is why I played so aggressively on the first day). If I'm right, they went after me last night because of this. If they hadn't tried to kill me, they knew that I might bring this back up and then they'd have to try to defend one of their own in the voting process without seeming to. Better to just eliminate the problem altogether and hope people just forget it. 

Plus, I still think that Sprenil's move was a bit over the top for a noble, but not out of range for a risk-taking Ghostblood.

 

Grellin - 

 

If I were to vote for someone, at this point, it would be Grellin. My only evidence for such is that he posted as soon as possible after roles were sent out (possibly trying to cover up his role as a Ghostblood by doing that than hitting the Doc to speak to his compatriots first) and the fact that I'll bet most of the Ghostbloods had already checked in before my post last night. I know, not very strong evidence, but it's only the first day.

 

No spanreeds will be used during the night, since there is no point in starting discussion during the night and they probably won't know whom to trust yet.

The night will provide several players with important information. From there, we can proceed to lynching. But for today, I advocate no lynching.

 

Basically, Grellin was the only other person I mentioned that I was suspicious of on the first day. If this was an attack due to me being onto something, then one of these two is likely to be a Ghostblood. 

 

Cara and Jain -

Storms, I should have tried to get on during the day. I still can't believe you guys killed Tors, he obviously wasn't evil.

So, it was you who had the Shardplate, Tion. I suspected you were the victim of the attack, considering how active you were. 

 

I'm lumping them together because my reasoning for suspecting them is similar, not because both of them could be Ghostbloods! 

The only people who have clear enough knowledge to state anything definite at this point in the game are the Ghostbloods, so I'd like an explanation for their almost physic level of clairvoyance.

 

Jim Bob Dirt and Fnorf -

I'm not going to put quotes of their debate up here, but their entire argument seems like it could be fabricated to me. It's a good way to deflect suspicion; arguing with your teammate. That way, no one will associate you two together. The sooner you do so, the better too. The argument just seemed to drag on a little bit longer than actually need; almost as if they were trying to find ways to fight about it. 

If one of them turns out to be a Ghostblood, the other one likely is as well. 

Also, we're pretty sure that the Ghostbloods have a reverser. If that's the case, they'd have no problem voting for one of their own, since they could skew the numbers.

 

Xanas, Jain, and Ace -

Basically, for not being targeted last night!  This is the main reason that I believe that they might have targeted me for reasons other than just getting rid of experienced players. They had a plethora of options and didn't take them. 

 

That's pretty much all of my suspicions right now. Feel free to use them or discard them as you see fit. 

 

 

By the time his criers finished their rounds, they were hoarse and their words came out in a croak at best. They rubbed their throats and looked absolutely miserable. Tion smiled at that and it was the first time he had smiled all day. Evidently, the only thing that could break through his rage and make him smile again was the suffering of others. 

 

Xanas: people cannot PM you or me. If they do, they'll be breaking the rules. Only those with Spanreeds can start PMs. 

 

Almost forgot. We do have another option for putting a kink in the Ghostbloods' plans. We could make me a full Shardbearer and that way, if they try to take me down, they'll be revealed. If whomever has the Blade would want to do this, I will name that person as my heir so they can likely get the Blade back if the Ghostbloods decide to try to kill me again. 

Edited May 16, 2014 by Metacognition

[18th Shard]

I know. I was saying the other spanreed holder should PM me, I would relay it to my spanreed contact (and thus you as we are in the same conversation now).

I hearby name Metacognition my heir.

Edited May 16, 2014 by Xanas-the 18th Shard

[Claincy]

I'm going to keep this short because I really really ought to be in bed. It's 3am here.

 

Regarding suspicions of Spenril, certainly possible. It would be a very daring move for a GB to make, but it is a daring move regardless. I would be far from certain of his guilt, but he should definitely be watched closely.

 

Grellin. I highly doubt the GB would use such a basic tactic.

 

Basically, Grellin was the only other person I mentioned that I was suspicious of on the first day. If this was an attack due to me being onto something, then one of these two is likely to be a Ghostblood.

I would have expected something like that in the first couple of games but by now people have hopefully realized that that strategy backfires far more often than it works. And yes yes, they could be aware of this, and hence did it knowing that we would expect them not to do it etc etc.) Grellin could be a GB, but I would place the odds against it.

 

Lightsworn panda

To be honest Meta I reckon half the players in the game figured you might be attacked mate. I don't think that is very suspicious.

 

 Jim Bob Dirt and Fnorf -

I'm not going to put quotes of their debate up here, but their entire argument seems like it could be fabricated to me. It's a good way to deflect suspicion; arguing with your teammate. That way, no one will associate you two together. The sooner you do so, the better too. The argument just seemed to drag on a little bit longer than actually need; almost as if they were trying to find ways to fight about it. 

If one of them turns out to be a Ghostblood, the other one likely is as well. 

Also, we're pretty sure that the Ghostbloods have a reverser. If that's the case, they'd have no problem voting for one of their own, since they could skew the numbers.

So I was wondering who would be the first to start casting suspicion on me. It was pretty inevitable with how blunt I was with my arguments. I'm honestly uncertain how to respond to this because there isn't really anything to argue against. You have taken my actions that could very well just be me arguing my point and decided that I could well be trying to do something crafty and complicated. While I admit to loving plotting and complicated schemes this seems a good example of how you can make absolutely anything sound like signs of their hidden evil nature

 

If you remember back in Game 2 I was similarly outspoken. As a point of fact I was killed off for arguing in essentially the same way I am now, I've just been making my arguments a little bit better this time round. So I am arguing in a way that has gotten me killed off before, and is beneficial to the villagers. Honestly that seems kind of stupid if I was a GB, the risk just doesn't balance out.

 

I could as easily suggest that you were playing a wounded gazelle gambit to get yourself trusted and in control. I do not think that is the case, but the amount of evidence for that is roughly equal to what you are basing your suspicions on me off.

 

On a different note, wonderful. If I was right in calling out Jim Bob Dirt and he turns out to be a GB I might well be killed for it. Truly wonderful
 

 

Xanas, Jain, and Ace -

Basically, for not being targeted last night!  This is the main reason that I believe that they might have targeted me for reasons other than just getting rid of experienced players. They had a plethora of options and didn't take them.

I know that pointing this out doesn't really help me at all. But I find it amusing and somewhat surprising that I am not included on this list

 

I do have some other thoughts to share, but I really, really, need to go sleep. I'll post more tomorrow. Sorry if any of that is too rambling or incoherent. Goodnight all.

[Awesomeness Summoned]

I know. I was saying the other spanreed holder should PM me, I would relay it to my spanreed contact (and thus you as we are in the same conversation now).

I hearby name Metacognition my heir.

Not sure if you are just saying they should contact you tonight, but just so you know, new pm groups can't be created during the day. It's a night action.  

[18th Shard]

Wait, they can't?

 

Edit: Checked Rules. They can only be made during the night unanimously, so we would now if they did it during the day.  Ohhhh....

Edited May 16, 2014 by Xanas-the 18th Shard

[Adolin_Dustbringer]

So what I'm wondering is: why is Macen still alive? Why didn't the GB even attack him? I'm not saying he's GB, but it certainly seems suspicious. 

[Macen]

It's my charm and good looks.

[Sphinx]

So what I'm wondering is: why is Macen still alive? Why didn't the GB even attack him? I'm not saying he's GB, but it certainly seems suspicious. 

 

There's a few possibilities. One is that they assumed that a noble with a painrial would be protecting him, and that they therefore had a better chance of going after someone else. Or that he has some sort of self defense item, and is trying to bait them into an attack that will reveal something about them.

 

Alternatively, they were more invested in setting up Tion as "innocent" by having their first attack be on him so that everyone would trust him and potentially go for his making him a shardbearer plan or his protecting him and leaving Ace open to attack plan. Yes, I am suspicious of everyone and everything.

 

Particularly people who are clearly lurking, and who did their best to distance themselves during the previous day, while making vague allusions to suspicions. Let's see if Faialen has anything to add.

Edited May 16, 2014 by Sphinx

[Wyrmhero]

As for my, What's the word for someone who declares you a Heir? As for the Fact that Macen and Jain declared me their Heir, Macen said so Right Here. this is the 3rd game we've worked together, and the Last Two, I was Evil.  As for Jain, He drank a Cup of Strong Tea? I'm not certain why, Here's his Post though.

 

Don't worry Jost, there was no need for you to explain their actions there. As I said, I was never truly suspicious of you, just wanted reassurances. As such, I have removed my vote from you accordingly.

 

Sphinx, while I doubt that they would do such a plan, it is a possibility. Indeed, I considered that he might not have been attacked at all and just taking advantage of such a situation, but I think we can assume that Shardplate-wearers know if they are attacked and that someone would have said that they were attacked instead. Considering such a thing would be flimsy to base a strategy on, we can at least assume he was definitely attacked.

 

The idea of making him a Shardbearer in full is also suspicious. I am doubtful that the Ghostbloods would try such a tactic this early on in the game. It's possible, of course. Any strategy is possible; the more unlikely, the better. Trying this so early might be the sort of thing they could try, if the Ghostbloods have Meta of all people advising them. But the fact it was Meta who was hit makes me inclined to believe otherwise. I think they were just trying to take out an intelligent and active player.

[Alvron]

I have to admit I'm a little suspicious of Xanas.  Why did you make Tion your heir during the day, surely you could've done it at night as everyone has up to three actions each night to use.

 

As for Tion being the platebearer, it seems very likely that he is as no one has come forward to dispute his claim.  That said it could simply be a very risky plan to make himself look like a noble while getting a shardblade at same time.

 

 

It sun had reached its peak by the time Alv had left Highprince Roion's study.  Pulling out some firemoss he absently rubbed it between his fingers as he strolled down the street.

 

He wants me to work with Vamah? Is he mad? Most of the corrupt clerks we've found have been working for that eel.

 

Reaching his rooms Alv grabbed a few items from under his bed.  If I have to go work for that worm, I'm at least going to be prepared.  A couple of darts and my lockpicks should be easy enough to conceal.

 

As he left his room he felt the presence of someone watching him.  Ah Jack.  You'll never give up will you.

 

Sorry it cuts off there.  I'm already late for my weekend round of golf and can't do to much more.

[Theorymaker]

I didn't know for certain that Tulir was innocent. I'm not clairvoyant (or in HYDRA) I posted that he was innocent after it was proven true. I was just angry that he died because he was just the person I trusted most in this game. Yes, I trusted him because he was an ardent.

 

As for my suspicions on his innocence they are:

 

See, the thing is that by voting someone out we get information.  Yes, it benefits the GB more, but if they had items they can be distributed but we know that they are innocent, which can help prove a few things.  Overall, the first day is difficult on what to do because of the fact nobody knows anything yet.

 

 

He went along with the plan to lynch people on Day 1

 

Hmm,aanotherrvotetagainstime.fIaambnotrGB,ithoughaIndon't know why any of you would believe that.  If you lynch me that is fine, as it will give you info about who could be GB.  I have no items, however, I do have a role, but do what you must.

 

 

He didn't care if he got lynched as long as it showed info about the GB. A GB would have tried harder to get out of a death deflecting accusations to other people but Tulir didn't.

 

The messenger from Tion came directly to her and told Cara that Tion suspects her, along with a bunch of other people, of being evil. She couldn't believe it. The man who had killed Tors had planned a list of people to kill and she was on it. I'm going to have to join in on these parties the nobles have, Cara realized. Otherwise I might be killed and have no clue that it is coming.

[A Joe in the Bush]

When she quoted Tors, in the Post above? Highlight Tor's Words, he says he's the Artifabrian, I just now found this.

[the Gleeman]

Sorry I haven't replied yet, but I've had a busy two days. Hmmmm puzzles within puzzles. Now for some RP.

 

Humperdinck stood in front of the chasm waiting. He did not see how the other camps could move quickly on the plains without Bridgemen. It was ridiculous to use any other method, so what if some men got hurt. Most of them were slaves and all darkeyed, what were a few lost? They saved the lives of their betters. It should be a joy to be in a bridge crew. Humperdinck looked up. All his men had crossed. He spurred his horse. Who cared about bridgemen?

[Theorymaker]

I forgot to mention this on my other post: I won't start a vote on Tion (though I am highly suspicious of him) but I will join in on a vote if anyone else thinks he's a Ghostblood. (hopefully before he gets a shardblade)

 

Edit: Now I'm not so sure because Mailliw73 said the attacker was a GB. (Why can't this game be easy!) (I still don't what Tion to have a shardblade)

Edited May 16, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Mailliw73]

It's the rope that the initial assassin climbed up to kill the king with. Remember? It was cut down and collected by someone else; the person who tried to murder me! At least that's my guess and I'm almost positive I'm right. It's Maill's way of letting us know that it was a Ghostblood that performed the kill.  

Ding ding ding, we have a winner!

Tors' death cry had that specific meaning, Jost.

[A Joe in the Bush]

Chach, Na, Vev, 1173 EoS

Penned by my Sister Sani.

 

I had been expecting the Ghostbloods to Kill again tonight, now that they know we know they're there, yet no one was killed, Though Tion claims to have been attacked, but how do we know he's not simply attempting to gain our trust, by playing the Victim. On the other had, I sought out Information on Late night activities, and found out that Grellin had been, up to things. I don't want to reveal what, Because I still think this is being read, But I need to tallk to him about his doings last night. Then Lastly, there's Xanas Openly Proclaiming Tion, another man I suspect, His Heir? That doesn't seem like a Good Idea. I'll need to investigate them soon.

~Jost Joslin

[Awesomeness Summoned]

Someone was following him. Awes was sure of it now. At first it was just the uneasy feeling that he was being watched but then there were the slight glimpses of movement he kept catching out of the corner of his eye. He’d shrugged it off as just excess paranoia from the recent events but if anything the signs were getting more obvious.

 

The Ghostbloods wouldn’t be so bold as to attack me in broad daylight would they? Besides, what threat am I to them?

 

They were difficult to hear but slight footsteps were definitely keeping pace with his own form the next street over. Awes needed to find another rout to today’s place of meeting and quickly. He slowed down to get a bearing on which alley way might take him in that direction then quickly turned down one and started sprinting once the pursuing footsteps had fallen behind.

 

Awes made more turns in his mad flight then he could keep track of and ended up completely lost. He was confident no one would have been able to track his chaotic path and stopped to catch his breath. A large figure came barreling around a corner headed straight at Awes. He turned in a panic to flee but ran straight into a pole which knocked him flat on his back.

 

When the spots began to clear he found Stomper’s massive head looking down on him, nickering and snorting in obvious satisfaction. Before Awes could regain enough sense to voice his displeasure, Stomper nipped at his hair, removing a large chunk by the roots. He then turned and cantered down the street with his trophy.

 

Awes shakily rose to his feet and hurled a few insults at the Ryshadium’s dwindling hind quarters but Stomper only pranced more proudly in response. After one more angry puff, Awes turned to carry on his way only to then run straight into a smiling Xanas.

 

“Very enlightening indeed. I have often wondered at the force of will Ryshadium trainers must possess in order to command such noble animals. I see now that I should be even more wary of your prowess during these debates.” With one last knowing smirk, Xanas departed along the path.

 

Awes dusted himself off, mustered what pride he had left, then continued on his way, resigned to face what was already shaping up to be another disaster of a day.

 

Edit: spelling

Edited May 17, 2014 by Awesomeness Summoned