Wyrmhero

Long Game 50: News of My Demise

427 posts in this topic

So I have a slight gut read on Elandera, but I was unable to find the source. This attempt on their life reduces my suspicions, but doesn't eliminate them. I'll need to look over again in hopes of finding something new. Also, it is interesting that there is a maximum limit on multiquoting, and impressive that the limit was found

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I’m again posting with limited time, though I hope to put something longer up tonight or tomorrow. 

I did manage a full reread of the earlier cycles, and have general suspicions on Rath, Ark, and Shqueeves, but I don’t have the time to justify voting for any of those yet. I’ll hold off for now, and hopefully find time tonight. As for Elandera, my feelings on her are mixed—I found things I liked and didn’t like in the previous thread, and hopefully (again with more time) I’ll look further into her. 

Finally, @Orlok Tsubodai, I understand you’re likely trying to compose a very large wall of text that may take some time, but I’d still like to see your justification for voting Itiah, and your response to recent developments. 

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17 hours ago, Elandera said:

I apologize if it seemed disingenuous. But as Fifth pointed out, I've had an unusually high rate of getting Pewter abilities. I'm kind of done with it.

Based on how I now have to burn pewter every night to stay alive, I survived only because of my role as thug. I also did not get any PMs saying I was lurched.

Personally, I think doing a WGG with a thug seems a bit risky because of the requirement that they be active enough every night to submit an action in order to stay alive. If I were an elim, I'd argue strongly against that strategy, especially with my past history of being killed because everyone found out I was a thug.

I forgot about the burning pewter rule, I agree that that makes a WGG even less likely.

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19 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I’m inclined to think that Elandera is a villager, since during the night cycle they suggested that the elim team might have a thug. That seems like a weird thing to do if your team is planning a WGG that very same cycle. 

Reading through the lynch last cycle, I think Meta/Ark could be both elim. Meta was the first vote on Ark, but then retracted after Gancho and Elandera joined the vote. The reasoning behind the retraction seems a little contrived, as Steeldancer pointed out.

Just want to say, I'm not an elim. I never have been, which actually annoys me.

I am suspicious of Meta though, as the above moves seem almost like he was trying to put suspicion on me.

Also, I might have missed it, but do we know who is influential this turn?

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There was a tie in praise, so no influential player this turn.

Also, you'll need a praise vote for your lynch vote to count.

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4 minutes ago, Badadah said:

I am suspicious of Meta though, as the above moves seem almost like he was trying to put suspicion on me.

I am arguing against you being elim, which is why I retracted my vote and posted what I did above. (It was a sort of pokevote in the first place.) It’s Araris and others who have outlined suspicion of you.

As for influence, there was a tie for Praise, so no one was influential. (Ninja’d, Rath.)

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Oh wait...

Meta

Jondesu didn't seem suspicious, and I'm going to go for Elandera. Just because she was attacked, no one is suspicious of her. How do we know for sure that she wasn't lurched? 

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We technically don’t, but logical deduction can help us deduce what happened.

Either Ela is elim or village. If they’re elim, then the attack is either an attempt to gain our trust or an attack by a coinshot. Given that there was only one kill submitted, and that a group of elims are more likely to submit an action than a single village coinshot, we can probably safely assume that the attack on Ela is from the elim team.

The attack could be a WGG, however, given past plays where thugs have been killed after discovering their role, and the fact that they have to submit an action to burn pewter every night to survive, it would be unlikely for it to be a WGG with a thug. The second option is that the elim team has a Lurcher, and Ela isn’t a thug. That’s probably the most likely WGG scenario, although Rath said that they found it unlikely that the elims would have that role (since it’s a little OP).

If Ela is village, there isn’t really any reason for them to lie about being a thug. The only reason for a Lurcher to not contact them is if they don’t trust her; but it’s unlikely that she would be lurched in the first place if that was the case. Therefore, Ela is probably a village thug. We can’t entirely clear the possibility of a WGG, but I’m applying Occam’s razor.

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I would hazard that it wouldn't be too strong for the elim team to have a lurcher if there is a village coinshot, which there almost certainly is. I'm not going to try and guess probabilities, but I wouldn't rule out an elim Lurcher by any means.

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4 hours ago, MetaTerminal said:

We technically don’t, but logical deduction can help us deduce what happened.

Either Ela is elim or village. If they’re elim, then the attack is either an attempt to gain our trust or an attack by a coinshot. Given that there was only one kill submitted, and that a group of elims are more likely to submit an action than a single village coinshot, we can probably safely assume that the attack on Ela is from the elim team.

The attack could be a WGG, however, given past plays where thugs have been killed after discovering their role, and the fact that they have to submit an action to burn pewter every night to survive, it would be unlikely for it to be a WGG with a thug. The second option is that the elim team has a Lurcher, and Ela isn’t a thug. That’s probably the most likely WGG scenario, although Rath said that they found it unlikely that the elims would have that role (since it’s a little OP).

If Ela is village, there isn’t really any reason for them to lie about being a thug. The only reason for a Lurcher to not contact them is if they don’t trust her; but it’s unlikely that she would be lurched in the first place if that was the case. Therefore, Ela is probably a village thug. We can’t entirely clear the possibility of a WGG, but I’m applying Occam’s razor.

I concur that the attackers were almost certainly the Eliminators. In respect to the possibility of a WGG, it is worth noting that there would be no clear reason to kill Elandera--however, the elims have hardly been predictable this game, so that doesn't tell us much. I agree that a WGG on Elandera makes little sense for an elim team if she is a Thug-- they would lose the ability to have a person with a passive ability submit the kill every cycle. However, if the Elims did have a Lurcher, eliminator!Elandera's attack and survival by her elim teammates would be more realistic. 

As I stated before, I don't believe killing Elandera for being attacked is a very smart idea unless we have better evidence than we currently do that her near-death was a WGG. The best solution would be for the Seeker to verify Elandera's claims later if they lack a better target (though there is a good chance she'll be offensively smoked if there's an elim smoker). 

Though I'd rather not vote with my gut this late in the game, time constraints are forcing my hand. 

On 11/7/2018 at 2:34 PM, Jondesu said:

Ooh, nice job to whoever protected Elandera (or if you were somehow protected yourself, Elandera, myself having forgotten all the roles that may come into play, congrats)!  That's a bonus for us, to have one fewer player down.

Jondesu, Elandera. This post has a "thanking the doctor" feel to it, and generally sounds insincere and emotionally exaggerated. I wish I had more to go on than this, but this may be my last significant contribution of the cycle, though I'll hopefully be on tomorrow in the morning to react to any developments.

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3 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

This post has a "thanking the doctor" feel to it

If I may ask, what is a "thanking the doctor" feel? I've never heard such a phrase before

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“Thanking the doctor” is a term where a player will praise the protection role for doing their job successfully, and is generally considered an Eliminator tell. In this case, Jondesu’s effusive compliments towards whoever he presumed saved Elandera raised red flags for me. 

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Finally. Work done for today. Ok, so let's see. I'm going to continue to follow my gut and say meta elandera. Seems like the safest option to me, and I'm still suspicious of Meta's wording of things. I'll be around tonight until I go to bed, but tomorrow I have yet another midterm and yet another concert, so yeah that's a thing. Feel free to actually, you know, PM me during the night, I didn't get any PMs and I always feel lonely when I don't get any (especially when I really don't have the time to make them myself). I might change my vote on Meta once I give it a bit more thought, but for now I think that's where I'm going to leave my vote. 

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28 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

“Thanking the doctor” is a term where a player will praise the protection role for doing their job successfully, and is generally considered an Eliminator tell. In this case, Jondesu’s effusive compliments towards whoever he presumed saved Elandera raised red flags for me. 

Huh. That kind of makes sense, in a strange sort of way. Not enough to convince me that Jondesu is evil, but interesting non the less

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If it was a lurcher who saved Elandera It would be nice to know. Also is there only one of each role? I'm going to vote Rathmeskal, Elandera

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1 hour ago, Nohadon said:

Also is there only one of each role?

Not necessarily, there's nothing that rules out multiples. It is possible there isn't even one of a role :lol:.

9 hours left in the Night.

Edited by Wyrmhero
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Hey guys just so yall know, I'm going to be off until Monday. If I'm inactive until then, don't be surprised.

Who to vote...

I'm going to keep at my suspicion with Ark. I still think he's an elim, taking the 'I'm new and don't know what I'm really doing' approach.

But for the praise, I'm going to vote Meta. I'm not sure why everyone's voting against them, and maybe yall have information I don't. However, their responses to being voted to lynch just don't feel like an elim trying to not die.

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Lord Flamingo was hangry...he still hadn't had his breakfast delivered to his room?  The day was almost over!  What were the servants in this house doing?  Was he going to...have to get his own food?  Guess it would have to be brunch today...wasn't there a little cafe on the corner?  If the servants weren't going to bring him his breakfast, he surely wasn't going to trust the cooks to make it either...he's just bill the meal to Lord Heron's estate.

~~

6 hours ago, Nohadon said:

If it was a lurcher who saved Elandera It would be nice to know. Also is there only one of each role? I'm going to vote Rathmeskal, Elandera

Whew, glad you didn't vote for me... :P  Any reason for this vote?

For now, I still have a gut feeling on Xino being elim.  Even if you exclude my (given, somewhat shaky, but what else can you expect this early in the game?) logic on the D1 lynch making Xino seem more suspicious to me, Xino's current strategy of popping in just long enough to get a post in...but not actually provide anything useful gives a pretty decent elim vibe to me.

For my praise vote, I was thinking it would go to Elandera...however that seems to be everyone's choice right now...  Maybe instead of a poke lynch vote...a poke praise vote will bring Aonar out of the woodwork?

Votes right now:

Lynch:

  • Meta (2): Araris, Steeldancer
  • Elandera (1): Badadah (This was Ark, right?)
  • Jondesu (1): Fifth
  • Rathmaskal (1): Nohadon
  • Ark (1): Gancho Libre
  • Xino (1): Rathmaskal

Praise:

  • Steel (1): Araris
  • Jondesu (1): Badadah
  • Elandera (3): Fifth, Steeldancer, Nohadon
  • Meta (1): Gancho Libre
  • Aonar (1): Rathmaskal

I believe there are only 3.5 hours left until rollover...let's get some more votes out here!

@xinoehp512 @Jondesu @Elandera @Young Bard @Orlok Tsubodai @Coop772 @Shqueeves @Furamirionind @Aonar Faileas @A Joe in the Bush @MetaTerminal (Whew, that was a lot of names to type out)

 

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I've been trying for the last two days to figure out who I think is most suspicious. Unfortunately, I don't have solid leads, just gut reads. I still have a few suspicions about Ark, but his response to votes seems genuine.

At this point, I'm slightly suspicious of Orlok. I can understand that he's been saying life is a bit busy, but he's been promising analysis and explanations for a few turns now with no resolution to the promises.

Orlok/Araris

Edited by Elandera
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It surprises me that more concern hasn’t been raised over the Itiah vote. Four votes were placed within the last 12 hours of the cycle, which swung the lynch away from being between Fifth and Rath. This makes me suspect that Fifth was concerned about, and got other elims to swing the vote late in the cycle.

I’m interested to see what Rath will do with influence, which could be just as revealing as starting a lynch against them.

EDIT: Fifth, Rath

Less people voted than I thought. In the interest of self preservation (I need to preserve the only confirmed village that I know) I will go with Rath. As one of the other candidates for being responsible for the Itiah swing, they are a safe bet (although I don’t understand Nohadon’s reasoning for their vote). I’ll pokepraise Coop as well, as I think some more activity would be nice.

Edited by MetaTerminal
Edit to avoid double posting
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Wait, how exactly was I responsible for the Itiah swing?

Jondesu, Young Bard, Orlok, and Ark voted for Itiah...  I had a praise vote on Itiah?

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3 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Wait, how exactly was I responsible for the Itiah swing?

Jondesu, Young Bard, Orlok, and Ark voted for Itiah...  I had a praise vote on Itiah?

I believe it's for the same reason he voted for Fifth. You two were the other options for lynch before it swung to Itiah at the last minute.

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Hmm, I guess that makes a bit more sense than how I was reading it at first.

@MetaTerminal if you're concerned with an elim swinging the vote to Itiah at the end of last cycle, then the voters would have to be involved as well.  Either from a house standpoint or at least one or two actually being elims.  I would ask that you reconsider your vote here.  I plan on being around through rollover, and I'd prefer not to put a vote on someone I actually have a decent village read on just for self-preservation.

Current vote tally:

Lynch:

  • Meta (2): Araris, Steeldancer
  • Elandera (1): Badadah (This was Ark, right?)
  • Jondesu (1): Fifth
  • Rathmaskal (2): Nohadon, Metaterminal
  • Ark (1): Gancho Libre
  • Xino (1): Rathmaskal
  • Fifth (0): Metaterminal
  • Orlok (1): Elandera

Praise:

  • Steel (1): Araris
  • Jondesu (1): Badadah
  • Elandera (3): Fifth, Steeldancer, Nohadon
  • Meta (1): Gancho Libre
  • Aonar (1): Rathmaskal
  • Rathmaskal (0): Metaterminal
  • Coop (1): Metaterminal
  • Araris (1): Elandera
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Sorry, but this is for self-preservation...and giving Elandera praise to make sure that doesn't get manipulated.

Xino/Aonar

Meta/Elandera

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