Long Game 50: News of My Demise

[Wyrmhero]

2 hours ago, Elandera said:

@Wyrmhero, is a Rioter required to vote in order for their action to work? Can a rioter make a vote a no-vote?

No to both. A Rioter is not required to vote for their ability to work, they simply have their votes - if any - nullified if they do. A Rioter cannot make someone else's vote into a no vote, it must always be applied to someone.

Two small clarifications:

1) The Writeups are not intended to hint at whether a player was killed by the Spiked or by a Coinshot.

2) If the Spiked send in two kill Actions, I'll take the first one as legitimate and ignore the second.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Wyrmhero

[Furamirionind]

As far as Itiah's death, I mentioned it a bit last night in my post.  And while I disagree with the claiming, My first thought when reading through of the game was that if the village knows all the roles, that will help the village. And Itiah said they were inactive for the first little while... They were also decently active during that turn, so I don't really feel comfortable that they were lynched (the entire thing happened while I was asleep : /).

I think that if a seeker finds someone (a non-roleless noble) who isn't spiked (obviously), that it would make sense for the seeker to reach out to that person.  The seeker can claim the other person's role as proof they are a seeker.  Granted, only being 9 roles means there is a 1/9 chance of randomly guessing a role correctly, so the non-seeker in this discussion would be gambling on a 89% chance of that person not lying... Which to me sounds pretty reasonable.
Though then again, that is without factoring in how many people there are of each role as we don't know that... so perhaps the spiked could make this less than a 89%... So this actually might not be the greatest idea.
I was thinking this through while I was writing it.  I am leaving the whole thing in my post, in case other people have ideas on it.  But... I am now thinking the best idea is probably what Fifth suggested with lynching the seeker after they have enough results under their belt.

I still would like to hear more from @Araris Valerian.  You start by saying that you don't think we should lynch either Orlok or Fifth, because of lack of talking other than them.  Fifth calls that out as a bad reason not to lynch them, and you change your vote to assassinate Fifth and praise Orlok.  But while you do that, you mention that you are paranoid of both of them, and think they both might be spiked. In that case, I don't understand why you would praise Orlok.

And as far as Rath, I personally don't see an issue with their posts. Many people read it as, "There is a spiked among the CadCom voters". I read it as, "There is probably a spiked among those voters due to shear amount of people who voted on CadCom."  Everyone seems to be agreeing that this is probably right, but then they still go on to vote to assassinate Rath, which I think is counter intuitive.

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

I'm currently leading to option 4, since the sudden pile of votes on Itiah seems very unusual to me. There seemed to be very little justification, even less than there was for CadCom's lynch

The only way for Rath to actually have been lynched is if 2 Rioters both decided to put votes on him. At least one of which would have had to have come off of Itiah.  So this "sooth" seems really strange to me.  Perhaps it was the spiked trying to set up Rath. But regardless of who did it, I don't think they checked the votes prior to their action taking place... As regardless of the reason for it, I just don't think it would help.
So out of the possibilities you pose, I think it could just as easily be 1, 3 or 4. As I think the action looks like it was made on limited information.

Edited November 6, 2018 by Furamirionind
adding votes... Umm now I am removing votes... You can't vote during the night... lol

[Elandera]

34 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

Granted, only being 9 roles means there is a 1/9 chance of randomly guessing a role correctly, so the non-seeker in this discussion would be gambling on a 89% chance of that person not lying... Which to me sounds pretty reasonable.

It would practically be suicide for someone to claim to be seeker, then tell the other person what role they have without actually knowing. If someone were to contact me, say they scanned me and found I was the wrong role, I'd immediately suspect them of fishing for information and likely push to lynch them. The chances (1/9) of guessing right seems a bit extreme of a chance when it could mean almost certain death if you were wrong. It would be a good idea for an actual seeker to claim to someone they scan to be a noble with some kind of role.

34 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

The only way for Rath to actually have been lynched is if 2 Rioters both decided to put votes on him. At least one of which would have had to have come off of Itiah.  So this "sooth" seems really strange to me.  Perhaps it was the spiked trying to set up Rath. But regardless of who did it, I don't think they checked the votes prior to their action taking place... As regardless of the reason for it, I just don't think it would help.
So out of the possibilities you pose, I think it could just as easily be 1, 3 or 4. As I think the action looks like it was made on limited information.

One hour before the close of cycle, Rath was only one vote behind Itiah. The action to soothe away one of those votes could easily have been submitted before the sudden shift to Itiah, or before Steel's vote moved. If Rath is elim, and elims have a soother, they could have been worried about a village rioter shifting votes from Itiah to Rathmaskal. That would have dropped Itiah's count down to 3, and raised Rath's to 4 at minimum. That easily could have happened, considering Itiah himself was a Rioter. Itiah never posted after the bandwagon began, so I suspect he never had the chance.

This also brings up the topic of what roles might be in the elim team. I suspect one form of vote manipulation. I believe it would likely be a Soother, since that role would be more difficult to discover than a Rioter. Rioters would have to avoid voting if they didn't want it to be fairly obvious that they may be somewhat involved in the manipulation. Elims also likely have a smoker. If they don't, they probably have a thug. I doubt they have a coinshot, though it wouldn't be completely implausible. From the size of group, it's possible they have up to five eliminators, a few being roleless.

(Also Fura, it's the night turn, so there's no vote )

Edited November 6, 2018 by Elandera

[Araris Valerian]

There's not necessarily anything bad about praising an elim. If anything, it's possible that they would be more likely to give away information because they have a greater incentive to vote, and have more influence over the lynch.

[Furamirionind]

16 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

There's not necessarily anything bad about praising an elim. If anything, it's possible that they would be more likely to give away information because they have a greater incentive to vote, and have more influence over the lynch.

But Orlok has been voting. If you think that it is a good idea to praise a spiked, and a good idea to praise a villager, then why not just pick a random person to praise every turn?

in fact, Orlok would be a worse person to pick as he would probably be more thoughtful, and pick someone who didn't give away as much information.  If you praised someone who was perhaps a bit less thoughtful, you would get far more information.

(This is why you should all vote to praise me ) That was a joke. And it has literally no meaning : )

Edited November 6, 2018 by Furamirionind
added and removed a joke at the same time. I just liked it too much to resist... I am going to get myself lynched if I keep up these jokes...

[Araris Valerian]

I actually have thought about praising someone who has been less active to encourage them to participate more actively. I'm not actually sure what the intended purpose of the praise vote is, but I think that there is nothing wrong with praising an active player, regardless of their eventual alignment.

[Fifth Scholar]

I’m tired and slightly distracted with the election results coming in, but I will address my Soothed vote briefly. I think Rath’s vote was the potential work of an Eliminator, but it very much depends on the composition of the Eliminators. I would be unsurprised if Wyrm had given the Elims lots of Smokers and the village received vote manip (we’ve seen the death of two vote changing roles already), so assuming anything about our mystery Soother is likely overly hasty at this point in time. However, that does mean I was not Smoked last night, and it means that my experiment is completed! My vote indeed was Soothed, and if there wasn’t a motive behind the Soothe related to trying to save somebody, our Soother may just be paranoid of Influentials, and negated my vote for that. Also, if any Seekers did scan me last night, you know any scan was accurate, and if I was scanned I’d like to be contacted.  

More analysis later once I’ve looked over the end of last cycle’s thread some more, and am less tired.

[Gancho Libre]

Wait do we vote again for the night cycle?

[Elandera]

3 minutes ago, Gancho Libre said:

Wait do we vote again for the night cycle?

Nope, there's no night vote. It's a time to analyze the last day's discussion and wait for murders.

[Gancho Libre]

k that's what I thought.

Thanks!

[Wyrmhero]

The Night is over!

[Wyrmhero]

Morning Edition 3

 

The Elendel Daily

Newsworthy Content for Every Octant!

The 25th of Doxil, 68, Morning

Price 2 Clips

Tekiel Appeal Begins

There's never a dull moment in Elendel, particularly with the recent chaos and murders that have affected many of the Noble Houses. For now though, these grisly killings have taken a secondary billing to what could be the most important legal case in recent history.

House Tekiel came under fire recently for poor working conditions, and a few days ago an independent inquiry found them guilty of negligence and dangerous working practices. The inquiry pronounced their guilt unanimously after finding multiple examples of cost-cutting on safety measures. House Tekiel's argument was not helped by Lord Tekiel's comments about his workforce and the derogatory terms he used to describe them, invoking the word 'skaa', and the imagery of the people used as a slave race in the world before the Catacendre.

Further to this, Lord Tekiel responded by requesting an appeal, as well as publishing an open letter within this and many other newspapers, refuting the claim, and also doubling down on his use of the word 'skaa' to describe the working class of Elendel. This has supposedly not endeared him to the appeal committee, and many experts believe that the stubbornness House Tekiel has displayed could lead to further punitive damages. Workers under House Tekiel have grouped themselves together as a single body for the sake of this investigation, and their representatives will be providing evidence to the appeal committee.

The legal council of the Elendel Consolidated Trade Union, as House Tekiel's factory workers have called their group, have stated that they are hopeful that this case will spur the creation of new laws regarding health and safety in the workplace, and hope that it will end exploitative practices within canneries and other factories city-wide, not just within House Tekiel and their businesses. It has been noted, both by the ECTU and by House Tekiel's own legal team, that House Tekiel is only doing as the other Houses are doing, and both sides claim that it would be foolish to hold them to a different standard to their peers. As such, there are high hopes among the ECTU that this case could have far-reaching consequences on how workers are treated throughout the city.

House Tekiel, along with many other Noble Houses, is also awaiting results of a further inquiry regarding their contribution to the smog and contaminated canal water that have plagued the city in recent years. This inquiry, and the appeal, are ongoing.

Krea Erikeller

 

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I see the bodies of the fallen, as the blood slowly pools away and congeals on the stony ground. I hear the words of the dead echo out as they cry out, and then fall silent. I smell the scent of fear as their last moments come to a close, and sense as their spirits fall away for another plane. I feel it all, and yet I am still blind. Why can I not see? Help me, or else we are all lost...

 

Other Headlines This Evening

Spoiler

The Daily Council – Tekiel Appeal Begins, Governor Accused of 'Using it as Smokescreen'

The Mraizekiller – What would Tekiel Appeal Failure Mean for Workers' Rights?

The Financial Broadsheet – Lord Tekiel 'Too Busy' to Attend Appeal in Person

New Allomancer - Constabulary Raise Concerns Over 'Artifical Coinshots'

The Copper Star – What Would a Stick's Soul Say?

 

Previous Editions

Spoiler

16th Doxil 68, Morning (Signups)

23rd Doxil 68, Morning

23rd Doxil, 68, Evening

24th Doxil, 68, Morning

24th Doxil, 68, Evening

 

Avi/Elandera was attacked during the Night, but survived!

Day 3 has begun! It will end at 7PM GMT on Friday 9th November.

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. xinoehp512 - Eviterces, a person of unknown quality. Why would they hide themselves like this?
2. I think I am here. - Itiah XII. What happened to the other eleven? Rioter
3. Fifth Scholar - Count Olaf, an old vassal that once was under the influence of Ruin. Ruin is gone, but what's to stop him falling under evil influence again?
4. Jondesu - Quintus, an old hat at situations like this. Makes you wonder how he lived through them to tell the tale...
5. Elandera - Avi, a person who has no idea what an Ookla Season is. Is that the truth, or are they perhaps lying?
6. Araris Valerian - Ookla the Curmudgeonly, an old man with a stern face. Perhaps evil is concealed within that stony visage.
7. Cadmium Compounder - Miumounder, also known as CadCom. Why would someone need two names? Soother
8. Young Bard - Jendred, eighth son, and thus unimportant. You can probably ignore him.
9. Gancho Libre - George R.D. Mackleberry. Never trust a man with two middle initials.
10. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, named for a ruler of Fadrex City, beloved by all. This character is different in two regards.
11. Steeldancer - Ookla of Squids. (This is getting out of hand, now there are two of them)
12. Rathmaskal - Lord Flamingo, flamboyant and fond of hopping.
13. Snipexe - Snip Exeutor, has stopped working. Noble
14. Coop772 - Burrsir, too cool for school.
15. Shqueeves - Ookla That Watches, definitely a Tineye.
16. Furamirionid - Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, Fura to his friends (if he has any).
17. Aonar Faileas - Tomir Izenry, only here for the money.
18. A Joe in the Bush - Sabine Seidel, of questionable sanity.
19. Ark1002 - Aniah Arkwood, from the roughs. Sticks out like a sore thumb in these fancy settings.
20. Nohadon - Severance Greed, greedy by name, greedy by repeated examples of taking more than his fair share throughout his life.
21. MetaTerminal - The Immortal Kalfaix, a travelling magician. You can't trust these out-of-towners...
22. Devotary of Spontaneity - Tessona, a Sliverist, but assuredly maybe probably not one of the bad guys. Noble

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Wyrmhero

[Jondesu]

Ooh, nice job to whoever protected Elandera (or if you were somehow protected yourself, Elandera, myself having forgotten all the roles that may come into play, congrats)!  That's a bonus for us, to have one fewer player down.

Now, the big question is whether that means we can trust you or if there's a WGG going on, but I can't see that being overly likely at the moment.  It just doesn't feel right, I didn't feel you had enough attention (or were inactive enough) for that tactic to be viable.  I think I'm putting you on my trusted list for now (as far as I trust anyone in these games).

[Orlok Tsubodai]

My fellow Lords.

We may be gathered here in contest, pitting ourselves against each other. There are those amongst us who appear even to wish harm to us. Today, though, we face a threat unparalleled since the dying days of the last age.

The threat facing us is existential. It threatens our holdings, our ways of life, our very names. Gathered Lords, we must take action now, together, or we will succumb to the grabbing, clawing hands of the multitude. The peasants, these Skaa, seek to collectivise, to unionise. They wish to force each of us to face a thousand of them in negotiations, to divide us, and smother us in their regulations. 

Let us stand up for society, for the functioning of the economy, and for ourselves, in this time of great peril. Esteemed Lords, I call now for an agreement amongst ourselves. Let us each, today, agree never to employ a Skaa who joins one of these "Unions". We must place them on a common blacklist, unable to gain employment or patronage. Only through this might we stem this tide, and so save all of Elendel's society.

We do this, though, not just for our society, but out of paternal kindness to our workers. We alone have been blessed with the capacity to recognise the threat these Skaa pose to themselves, and we must save them from themselves. Their "Unions", their regulations, will stifle competition, will raise our costs, and will leave our good selves with no choice but to cast many more of them out into the cold.

We must make our stand now, we must collectively expel these organisers, these saboteurs, and protect our workers and ourselves.

I call on all of you now to join me in this pledge, raising your voices in agreement, and demonstrating the soundness of my arguments to the Court and the people.

---

Thoughts to follow, perhaps as an edit. The last 24 hours have been extraordinarily busy.

[Rathmaskal]

If Elandera is a Thug, that would explain the survival...alternatively, a Lurcher could have been responsible for the save.

If Thug is the explanation, then we can't really get anything out of this for Elandera's alignment.  That seems like a role that could easily be on both sides of the game.

As for a Lurcher being involved.  I'd say it's less likely for there to be a Lurcher on the elim team - it would be darned tough to get a lynch off on the elim team if they had a lurcher.  So I'd think it would be at least somewhat unlikely that the elim team would be able to set something up like this to try to get us to clear Elandera.elim.  So, I think I can actually give Elandera a soft clear from this.

Now, to head back in time to (Orlok ninja) try to figure out why Elandera may have been targeted.

[Jondesu]

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

it would be darned tough to get a lynch off on the elim team if they had a lurcher. 

Actually, (I checked the rules to be sure), a Lurcher can't save someone from the lynch. That would be a very powerful role anyways. Rioters or Soothers are the ones who could affect a lynch, and there certainly could be one of those on the Elim team. I wouldn't use that as a basis for clearing anyone specifically, even though I mostly agree on Elandera in this case.

[Rathmaskal]

Ahh, thanks for that.  OK, slightly softer clear for Elandera then.

[Elandera]

Avi didn't go to work that morning. Her mother had sent a letter to the constabulary office explaining her absence. Instead, Avi rested in the plush bed at her parent's mansion. She felt the pewter burning inside, helping to heal the wound from being attacked.

She'd been on her way back to the carriage provided by her mother after attempting to meet with Lord Heron and his estate. Her dress had been tight and uncomfortable and her hair was pulled back so tightly it had given her a headache. She was so focused on how poorly she felt, she didn't notice the shadowed figure approach her. The footman had gone ahead with her parents, guiding them into the carriage, leaving Avi behind.

All she remembered was a sharp pain, then blackness.

The wound was bad. She'd lost a lot of blood. But at least she was alive. Whoever had attacked her had suddenly made her whole investigation a whole lot more personal. They would pay for what they'd done. As long as her injury didn't kill her.

-------

I guess the cat's out of the bag. I'm a thug, which is how I survived the attack. I'm not entirely sure why I was targeted. Maybe I got a little too close to the truth with some of my guesses? Or maybe they wanted to throw more doubt toward Rathmaskal, whom I suggested might be elim with the votes that happened last time.

If you attacked me, I'd love an explanation. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

13 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Avi didn't go to work that morning. Her mother had sent a letter to the constabulary office explaining her absence. Instead, Avi rested in the plush bed at her parent's mansion. She felt the pewter burning inside, helping to heal the wound from being attacked.

She'd been on her way back to the carriage provided by her mother after attempting to meet with Lord Heron and his estate. Her dress had been tight and uncomfortable and her hair was pulled back so tightly it had given her a headache. She was so focused on how poorly she felt, she didn't notice the shadowed figure approach her. The footman had gone ahead with her parents, guiding them into the carriage, leaving Avi behind.

All she remembered was a sharp pain, then blackness.

The wound was bad. She'd lost a lot of blood. But at least she was alive. Whoever had attacked her had suddenly made her whole investigation a whole lot more personal. They would pay for what they'd done. As long as her injury didn't kill her.

-------

I guess the cat's out of the bag. I'm a thug, which is how I survived the attack. I'm not entirely sure why I was targeted. Maybe I got a little too close to the truth with some of my guesses? Or maybe they wanted to throw more doubt toward Rathmaskal, whom I suggested might be elim with the votes that happened last time.

If you attacked me, I'd love an explanation. 

There seems something disingenuous in here, with Elandera's passive suggestions of why they were attacked. 

Further analysis more generally, including of Elandera forthcoming, but somewhat delayed.

I've also just discovered that there's an upper limit of 50 to the number of posts you can multiquote at a time, which might interest some if you.

[Fifth Scholar]

14 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I've also just discovered that there's an upper limit of 50 to the number of posts you can multiquote at a time, which might interest some if you.

It interests me that you were attempting to multiquote more than 50 posts, yes.  

31 minutes ago, Elandera said:

I guess the cat's out of the bag. I'm a thug, which is how I survived the attack. I'm not entirely sure why I was targeted. Maybe I got a little too close to the truth with some of my guesses? Or maybe they wanted to throw more doubt toward Rathmaskal, whom I suggested might be elim with the votes that happened last time.

Assuming you’re telling the truth, I find it amusing that you’ve gotten Pewter-related abilities in three straight games set in Scadrial (QF32, LG48, and now this one). More seriously, were you told in PM if you were Lurched or not? (Similarly, Lurchers, did you target Elandera last night?) I would note that although we shouldn’t lynch Elandera based on her survival, it is worth mentioning that C2 is about the sweet spot for WGGs. Early enough to gain trust that will last, late enough that it doesn’t look weird doing it C1, and it doesn’t impair their chances later in the game when they might actually really need to eliminate somebody. 

It appears our Coinshot made no kill attempt, but whether this was due to inactivity or lack of suspicions remains to be seen. I’ll suspect the former more if there’s no kill next Night cycle. 

More thoughts after I’m productive with my actual work. 

[Araris Valerian]

I’m inclined to think that Elandera is a villager, since during the night cycle they suggested that the elim team might have a thug. That seems like a weird thing to do if your team is planning a WGG that very same cycle. 

Reading through the lynch last cycle, I think Meta/Ark could be both elim. Meta was the first vote on Ark, but then retracted after Gancho and Elandera joined the vote. The reasoning behind the retraction seems a little contrived, as Steeldancer pointed out.

[Rathmaskal]

If I miss anything here, please let me know...but here are what I'm seeing as potential reasons as to why the elims may have targeted (I always want to put an extra 't' in the word 'targeted'...and then I have to go back and delete it) Elandera.  Basically, these are the actions I've seen Elandera perform so far this game:

• There's always the random call.  If you don't kill people with any rhyme or reason as an elim team, it can make it harder to figure out who was onto something.
• Elandera has consistently been active so far this game and has been making helpful posts.
• Elandera was slightly critical of Fifth at one point...this could be a grab at either helping Fifth escape notice or trying to cast some shade on Fifth.
• I mentioned, and Araris somewhat echoed, that Elandera and Xino were among the more suspicious of the votes on CadCom D1.  If it's elim.Elandera, then this would be a way to draw suspicion away and potentially to Xino...if it's village.Elandera...it doesn't make a lot of sense in this scenario (two ninjas here...this post is taking a while to type up since I have some work going on as well)
• Elandera had created a list of possibilities for why Fifth's vote was removed from me and implied that the best option was due to elims trying to cast shade one me...not sure how this fits in or which way it would fall, but it's possible that it could have been an attempt to put focus on me again

Not a lot to go on at this point.  And I kind of lost my train of thought when I had to go away from my desk for a bit.

[Elandera]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

There seems something disingenuous in here, with Elandera's passive suggestions of why they were attacked. 

I apologize if it seemed disingenuous. But as Fifth pointed out, I've had an unusually high rate of getting Pewter abilities. I'm kind of done with it.

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

More seriously, were you told in PM if you were Lurched or not?

Based on how I now have to burn pewter every night to stay alive, I survived only because of my role as thug. I also did not get any PMs saying I was lurched.

Personally, I think doing a WGG with a thug seems a bit risky because of the requirement that they be active enough every night to submit an action in order to stay alive. If I were an elim, I'd argue strongly against that strategy, especially with my past history of being killed because everyone found out I was a thug.

[Steeldancer]

Huh I thought I posted something earlier about the coinshot probably being the one to not put in a kill, but apparently it didn't show up. Ah well, I don't really have the time at the moment (I have yet another midterm today), but I should be a bit less insanely busy tomorrow, so I'll post some thoughts then. 

[MetaTerminal]

4 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

The reasoning behind the retraction seems a little contrived, as Steeldancer pointed out.

As stated in one of my earlier posts: I was planning to change my vote once I did a read on everyone. Ark seemed to me as more of an inexperienced player, as I (possibly mistakenly) assumed this was one of his first rodeos. I considered it hypocritical to lynch someone due to inexperience. It was also somewhat of a pokevote - rereading my posts, that’s not entirely clear, but I think it explains my actions somewhat. (I also believe that Steel’s vote was based on a gutread.)

As for Ela being attacked, I can’t think of a reason for her to lie about that. And while being a thug is NAI, given the timing and a general rule that elims are more active as a group than any individual coinshot, I’d agree that this softclears her.