Long Game 50: News of My Demise

[MetaTerminal]

I promised I would analyse, so here I am.

Firstly, the CadCom lynch. The main questions surrounding this are whether it was suspicious, and whether or not elims would have joined it. I don’t believe it was suspicious at all; with both Fifth and Devotary strongly encouraging it, who are two experienced analysts, then it naturally follows that there would be village joining that lynch (especially, if I may add, inexperienced players who didn’t trust their own gut. I’m hesitantly filing Ark’s vote against Snip in this category as well, although that case is quite different as the Snip lynch was a pokevote that turned into a wagon). So I’m not considering those votes as a whole suspicious.

The question remains whether elims would have joined. Given the size of votes it’s possible that an elim would be in the group. However, I’d say it’s equally likely that the elims would’ve just let the lynch happen, especially because the second possible lynch was Snip. Both candidates were village, so I wouldn’t think that elims would have incentive to push one over the other. (If Snip turned out elim, then it would be much more likely that many of the votes against Cadmium would have been elims trying to tip the balance, which is why I think Snip was targeted so quickly. The elim kill would therefore likely be against Devotary, aforementioned good analyst.) So, while its entirely possible there is an elim hiding among the late votes, I don’t think we should restrict our analysis to just those candidates; that would be an excellent way to burn through several cycles without furthering the cause. We should be looking at wider behaviour, and considering the votes in context of other actions, in order to determine elims. 

The Fifth-Orlok discussion is interesting, even if you ignore the reaction to it. Due to my position I’m most certainly not qualified to comment on the Meta surrounding the games (should change my name - almost Ookla season). But it doesn’t indicate anything about alignments to an outside perspective. It could be two experienced elims playing off each other, or one trying to dissuade suspicion of another, or just two villagers getting paranoid. I haven’t been able to develop a solid read on either of them, despite initially favouring Fifth in what was on reflection a kneejerk reaction. But I’ll go through later and see if anything piques my interest. We shouldn’t necessarily assume one is an elim, although that was my initial reaction. But we should keep an eye on both of them to see if they act up in the future. If enough people get consistent elim reads on one of them, though, we shouldn’t hesitate to start acting on that.

Votes? I’d like to hear a little more out of Ark (@Ark1002) as it’s their votes I am most unsure about right now. That will most likely change after I do a read on everyone. As for Praise, I’ve been getting good vibes from Elandera so far.

[Steeldancer]

Ok. Homework done for today. This situation will likely continue for the rest of the week, that I won't have a ton of time for SE, but I'll try to pop in when I finish my workload. Ok, gimme a few minutes to read over the thread. So, while CadCom was legitimately being suspicious, I feel there was definitively some elim shenanigans. Probably nothing unusual, even if there was an elim up for lynch, they would just kind of divert things towards someone else pretty easily on day one. We evidently have an active coinshot, which is good, but I won't clear them until an elim dies during a night. 
Ok. We got some playing off of each other with Orlok and Fifth. Tbh, I can read this as being elim elim, village elim, or village village. You just never know with Orlok, and fifth hasn't been elim often enough for me to really read into any of his posts. I've been involved in my fair share of head butting early on in a game, and I can't think that it necessarily indicates my alignment, so I'm not sure if that helps at all. I'm going to take a few more minutes to read through, then see if I can come up with a person I feel good about voting on. 
Ok, nobody's saying anything and I'm not going to double post, so I'll just edit in my analyticish thoughts. 

Hm. I feel like Orlok is being fairly honest meta wise, which makes me want to trust him, but taking a closer look, it's not necessarily alignment indicative. I could totally see elim-orlok hopping on a legitimate reason to lynch a villager. I can also see village-orlok doing that, so not helpful. Orlok finds Fifth vaguely suspicious, which honestly.... I'm not feeling any gut suspicions yet, and I don't know. 

So yeah. While on one hand I do kind of want one of them dead, I kind of also don't want to focus my attention on them? This happens way too much, villagers- with the occasional elim- but (is it butt, or but? Idk anymore) heads, and the village ends up ripping them apart, leaving the quieter elims safe in their beds or whatever they're safe in. So, I'm tempted to not want to lynch either of them, and either let elims kill them or a coinshot go vigilante on them. I'd rather focus my attention on the much more difficult thing- the quieter elims. I know my behavior as of right now has been circumstantially suspicious, but my lack of a vote day one and lack of attention has really been due to real life issues. Plus, I know I'm a villager, so I know I can trust me. But let's see. Shqueeves being kind of quiet is, iirc, kind of typical for him? Araris is being a bit more... idk aggressive than normal? I don't even know if that's necessarily alignment indicative either though, because he's usually quiet as a villager and as an elim. Fur, is new, and so I'm still going to give her the benefit of the doubt. 

Ok. Fifth. Did you just refer to us as villagers? Excluding yourself from the whole of the village? That's not suspicious at all...

anyway, Rathmaskals vote is the most random I see in the thread right now, although it might just be functioning as a poke vote. I feel it might be a better idea to kill less actives (not inactives, less actives) rather than ultra actives, worries of Orlokian destruction aside. And I appreciate the poke vote from Young Bard.  

Edited November 6, 2018 by Steeldancer
edited in analysis and votes.

[I think I am here.]

If we have a Seeker here, I’d recommend them to scan either Fifth or Orlok. Hopefully they’ll be selfless enough to tell us the results.

To our village coinshot: pls no kill Might want to hold down on kills unless you have a good suspicion. Also, find someone (you trust) and tell them. Yeah, I know this sounds like a classic elim trying to get Allomancers to claim, but, if AG3 is anything to go by, having an extra pair of eyes and ears to help you make your kill descisions is a huge advantage. AG3 was the game where we had the elim double-kill.

Rioters and Soothers: I don’t know what to say on them. Usually, these vote manips work usually for themselves, right? I mean if they were an elim they obviously would go for them, and in this game we might find Rioters and Soothers trying to save housemates or trying to redirect praise votes on housemates. So finding elims by looking who’s vote got Soothed where might not be as helpful. Other than that, not sure how the village mental Allomancers could help find the elims.

Tineyes: Don’t get yourself killed. That’s about all.

Lurcher: I was once a Lurcher, and I got some tips. Like the coinshot, reach out to people (via PM) that you’re sure you can trust. Who knows, they may know another village Allomancer. Be very careful it’s not an elim, though, as they could trick you into protecting their fellow elims.

Another question: does anyone have a vote count?

[Furamirionind]

I am done with my homework now, ans will be significantly more active for at least the next week. (Then midterms : /)

2 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

Also, find someone (you trust) and tell them. Yeah, I know this sounds like a classic elim trying to get Allomancers to claim, but, if AG3 is anything to go by, having an extra pair of eyes and ears to help you make your kill descisions is a huge advantage. AG3 was the game where we had the elim double-kill.

The safest way I see to accomplish this is to wait for a seeker to contact you.

2 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

Hopefully they’ll be selfless enough to tell us the results.

I would hope a seeker would tell people they trust the results, but posting publically I think would basically be suicide for a seeker.

3 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Ok. Fifth. Did you just refer to us as villagers? Excluding yourself from the whole of the village? That's not suspicious at all...

 

8 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

A wonderful solution to this is, of course, to simply analyse more yourselves, villagers

Is this the quote you are referring to? I personally didn't read this as if fifth was excluding himself from the village.  Kind of like how sometimes when talking to a group of humans you refer to them as humans... Is that just me? ...I dont think so...

Anyway, I don't think a spiked would be likely to say something that would obviously alienate them from the village.

@Araris Valerian, what made you change your mind so suddenly? if you are thinking that both Fifth and Orlok are spiked, why vote to praise Orlok? 

For now, Araris/Elandera... Umm, I Apperantly don't know how to colors on mobile... So nevermind. But I will be on in the morning for some real analysis.

Fifth (2): Orlok, Araris

Ark (1): Meta

Xino (1): Rathmaksal

Steel (1): Bard

Rathmaksal (3): Fifth, Steel

Araris (0): Fura

Praise

Orlok (1): Araris 

Aonar (1): Orlok

Elandera (3): Fifth, Meta

Itiah (1): Rathmaksal

Bard (1): Steel

Araris (1): Bard

Edited November 6, 2018 by Furamirionind
It sounded as if I wasnt going to do real analysis tomorrow. I will, I didnt tonight.

[Wyrmhero]

8 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Orlok Tsubodai because I still want to find out how he would act with extra influence. I don't know for anyone else.

I'm afraid I can't count this vote as there's no Assassinate to go with it.

[Fifth Scholar]

6 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

You're making a lot of assumptions and misreadings in your interpretation here.

I did not say I was looking at a specific group of votes.  The fact that Xino and Elandera were 3rd and 4th is somewhat notable.  I was more concerned with the fact that they made rather weak attempts at justifying their votes: "suspicious" and "confusing" were about all that came about.  Meta's justification was pretty weak as well.

I didn't say the conversation wasn't useful to begin with...but the two of you talking back and forth for a dozen posts or so didn't seem to be providing additional at that point.  I'm not discounting your conversation up to the point and I never said I was. 

I guess I can understand your confusion there...but it seems as if you're putting a lot of words in my mouth with your interpretation.

Here is what you said, @Rathmaskal (I realise I’m quoting myself quoting you, but it was the only way to avoid losing my previous quote): 

8 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

So, I'm trying to get any kind of read on the D1 activity.  5 votes on CadCom...I'm going to assume that at least one (and likely only one) of those was from an elim.  Right now I'm waffling between Xino and Elandera as the most likely two.  The fact that Fifth and Orlok have managed to have such a lengthy conversation with little (really, no) interruption makes me think that the elims are fine with where the conversation is going...which right now is basically nowhere.  (which they've both kind of admitted to as well)

So you did assert that one of the people on CadCom’s bandwagon was an Eliminator, which is looking at a specific group of votes. I understand if you have suspicions of Elandera and Xino from their role in CadCom’s death, but starting with the assumption that one is evil is a bad idea. If you could provide additional evidence as to why you believe they are evil, it would go a long way towards helping your case. Second, your comment on the discussion between Orlok and I; you did not say that it was worthless, true, but saying that it was going “basically nowhere” is functionally similar, and also misleading, I believe. Orlok and I had pivoted away from meta discussion and had begun going back-and-forth with suspicions and defences after our discussion on CadCom (which Orlok had been trying to lynch me for, making it game-relevant, and which really only stretched over four or five posts).  

6 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I also rescind my opinion that we shouldn't kill Orlok/Fifth this cycle. I sort of agree with what Orlok has said about you, Fifth, and I also think your vote on Rath is a little strongly worded. My SE paranoia has also kicked in and started me on thinking that you and Orlok are both elims playing off of each other.

What Orlok has said about me is essentially that he has vague suspicions from my tone, which is fine (I’ve certainly voted with less justification than that in the past), but I will be annoyed if that’s the only thing that gets me actually lynched. I would invite those arguing against my tone to please at least say what aspect of it is giving them an “Eliminator reading,” if that’s what will end up killing me. As for my vote on Rath, it’s strongly worded because I believe that his post wasn’t indicative of a villager mindset, and contained several phrases I saw as potentially coming from an elim standpoint. I explained it as best I could already, and I’m sorry if the wording seems too strong, but I wasn’t really looking to analyse all the nuances of his post, simply due to time. 

2 hours ago, I think I am here. said:

If we have a Seeker here, I’d recommend them to scan either Fifth or Orlok. Hopefully they’ll be selfless enough to tell us the results.

To our village coinshot: pls no kill Might want to hold down on kills unless you have a good suspicion. Also, find someone (you trust) and tell them. Yeah, I know this sounds like a classic elim trying to get Allomancers to claim, but, if AG3 is anything to go by, having an extra pair of eyes and ears to help you make your kill descisions is a huge advantage. AG3 was the game where we had the elim double-kill.

Rioters and Soothers: I don’t know what to say on them. Usually, these vote manips work usually for themselves, right? I mean if they were an elim they obviously would go for them, and in this game we might find Rioters and Soothers trying to save housemates or trying to redirect praise votes on housemates. So finding elims by looking who’s vote got Soothed where might not be as helpful. Other than that, not sure how the village mental Allomancers could help find the elims.

Tineyes: Don’t get yourself killed. That’s about all.

Lurcher: I was once a Lurcher, and I got some tips. Like the coinshot, reach out to people (via PM) that you’re sure you can trust. Who knows, they may know another village Allomancer. Be very careful it’s not an elim, though, as they could trick you into protecting their fellow elims.

Another question: does anyone have a vote count?

I would recommend Seekers choose their targets among those they believe least likely to be Smoked, on the contrary. If “roleless Noble” pops up, don’t take it as an automatic sign of innocence, for sure, but also don’t take it as a signal that the person was definitely smoked. Knowing Wyrm, a good percentage of the people in this game probably are roleless nobles. Also, the Seeker shouldn’t claim until they have a significant number of results, and when they claim they should be lynched or Coinshot to confirm their scans. (Sorry, it’s a tough life. )

Finding people you trust isn’t a great idea for a Coinshot—they’re around to hopefully get rid of people they suspect. If a Seeker can contact a Coinshot, they can work together on different targets every cycle, until at some point the Coinshot kills the Seeker and reveals their results. 

Regarding Tineyes, protecting them at all costs is a poor strategic decision—first, because they could be elim (which would be awful, but a possibility), and second, because PMs are nice but not essential, especially since they’re Night-only to begin with. 

Lurchers should very much keep on the down-low—if they claim to anyone, they could be killed on the spot for their role. 

I’ve run out of time to respond to anything else, or change my vote, and won’t make it back on until after the cycle is over. I’m hoping that I can keep my perfect record of never having been mislynched, but if I am, it isn’t the end of the world. If that does happen, my flip should hopefully be sufficiently informative to the village. Finally, as Steel was saying, starting to look among the lower-profile people that aren’t saying much might be a good idea to catch some of the Elims that are lying low. 

[Jondesu]

Ok, I’m still on mobile, but I’m going to make an attempt.

I read through the last cycle, but honestly I don’t get a lot to go on from Day 1 discussions most of the time, especially when the lynch target is village, so I can’t say I got anything notable from it. Instead, I’m going to be looking more at the current discussion. 

The big debate between Fifth and Orlok is interesting, but I find those most often seem to be between villagers, so while it doesn’t clear either, I don’t want to target either right now. I’m also always hesitant to lynch those driving discussion, though of course I don’t want to let that stop me from pursuing any legitimate suspicions. I just know I have a tendency to focus on the loudest voices and forget the rest.

Steel made a good post that I get a relatively neutral read from, perhaps village. Furarionmind explained their absence like mine (though I think they were more active than I), and made a short post, I think also fairly neutral in tone and content. Vote counts are always helpful but can be an easy way to appear active, but it also just makes sense for a player catching up, so I don’t want to read anything into that.

Ok, now here’s one standing out to me. i think i am here says they think one of Fifth or Orlok is Elim, but doesn’t go into a lot of detail, and doesn’t actually place a vote. I get a weird vibe when I see posts like that. i think i am here, care to explain more?

And since I need a praise vote, Fifth Scholar since I’ve liked what I’ve seen and I don’t get an elim vibe particularly, as I said. 

Edited November 6, 2018 by Jondesu
Removed extraneous “The” added by autocorrect.

[Gancho Libre]

Sorry I've been a bit inactive. I can only get on every now and then.

As such, I can't say I have any strong opinions. However, Ark's tone is a bit suspicious.

As for the praise? I'm going to agree with Jondesu on this one. I don't get an elim feel about Fifth.

Sorry guys. I'll try to get on more this week.

[Elandera]

5 hours ago, Furamirionind said:

Umm, I Apperantly don't know how to colors on mobile... So nevermind. But I will be on in the morning for some real analysis.

You have to manually code the color on mobile. Do the following, replacing red with your desired color (like purple or green) and remove the apostrophes.

[color'=red]whatever you want to say[/'color]

Edited November 6, 2018 by Elandera

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Fifth Scholar, Aonar, Itiah, Aonar.

Reasoning forthcoming as soon as I have time.

[+Ark1002]

I think I am here/Orlok Tsubodai

Itiah seems suspicious, he keeps going in, saying he doesn't have time to vote, then giving us reasons to do things.

I will take that vote away if he gives me evidence against it.

And my reasoning for Orlok is the same as earlier.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Aniah dropped the newpaper again. Luckily, today it wasn't cereal.

TWO. MORE. DEATHS.

I could be next.

She began to panic.

No. NO. NO!

She ran out into the town, trying to find some place to calm down.

I wish I was back in the roughs...

[Rathmaskal]

OK, fair, I guess focusing on the 6 people who voted for CadCom is focusing on a specific group of voters...who also are some of the few people we have actual information on.  (I'm starting to think that @Fifth Scholar just doesn't like my tone of text in these games...I can be verbose when necessary, but most of the time I'm quite to the point...especially when I have a lot to do at work and don't have time to write out a page of thoughts.)  So, here's my explanation on why I'm assuming there's an elim in the D1 vote.

1. Even though the #2 vote-getter was Snip (who flipped village), that doesn't mean there wasn't a pathway to get someone else lynched with the vote manipulation that's involved in this game.  Also, that could actually explain why Snip was killed - what better way to get the heat off your back as an elim who voted on a village lynch d1 than to kill the second-place vote getter?
2. The elims, AS WE ALL KNOW, have a doc to talk in...so they're going to make sure they don't all pile onto a mislynch on D1...they'll probably temper it a bit.  Maybe there are two on there...maybe not.  But it's unlikely to be a significant percentage of the voters.
3. Just plain odds.  If approximately 1/3 (not quite, but close enough for an argument) of the people in the game vote on one person, there's bound to be an elim there.
4. An elim isn't likely to call TOO much attention to him/her self on a D1 lynch, so the first and last people on the vote typically seem unlikely to me...even though it's a fairly obvious method of discounting people, it's going to be correct quite often.

So, maybe my odds of hitting a random elim are better if I take a look at the non-CadCom voters...but, as I said before, this is a group that actually has provided information.

Also, @Steeldancer, my vote is currently on one of the less-active players, unless you're saying you'd prefer to kill me as a less-active player?

[Young Bard]

2 hours ago, Gancho Libre said:

Sorry I've been a bit inactive. I can only get on every now and then.

As such, I can't say I have any strong opinions. However, Ark's tone is a bit suspicious.

As for the praise? I'm going to agree with Jondesu on this one. I don't get an elim feel about Fifth.

Sorry guys. I'll try to get on more this week.

Could you elaborate on that, Gancho? Why do you feel suspicious about Ark?

Steel, Araris

Hmmm... Itiah - asking the Coinshot and Seeker to claim are red flags for me. Yes, it worked in AG3, but I can just as easily point to a game like LG12(?) where Rae had a vig role and relied on Burnt for advice, who was an Eliminator, and who got led astray as a result. Also, I strongly disagree that one of Orlok and Fifth would have to be an Eliminator like you suggest, and it feels like that thought process might be a way to get rid of one or both of the better analysers early on in the game. The fact that Orlok seems to find Itiah suspicious as well gives me a little more confidence that I'm not just tunnelling, as well. On top of that, I don't view Fifth as suspicious currently, so I'm happy to go along with it (part of me wants to vote for someone else so we don't end up giving the Praise vote to the same person multiple cycles in a row, but if I'd wanted to do that I should have gotten online earlier - I don't think there's time at this stage of the cycle.)

As for Rathmaskal - it read to me like they were trying to do some genuine analysis - it didn't read like him trying to distract the village or anything like that. (Particularly since, given discussion today, there doesn't seem to be much to distract from - with luck, tomorrow will be more active.)

And Ark... Is it just that Snipexe voted on Ark and then Snip died? That feels tenuous at best.

Hmmm... Tonight or tomorrow, I'll try and go through and do a player by player, because when I do that my thoughts usually solidify at least slightly, and right now I just feel like I'm grasping at straws.

[Elandera]

Avi waved the newspaper angrily at her captain for the second day in a row. "I told you things would turn sour with this Lord Heron business! Three people dead, and what's to stop more from starting? We need a list of people vying for the position."

"Constable Renault," the captain responded slowly. "I've heard some rumors that you yourself might be among that number. I hope this isn't a ploy to take down your rivals."

Avi's mouth gaped open. "Wha- No!" she shouted. "I don't even want to be lady of my own house, let alone Lord Heron's."

The captain just raised an eyebrow at her. "If you insist, you can look into the deaths. I'll notify the constabularies of the octants investigating. Just keep your personal business out of it. Don't use this as a way to eliminate or intimidate your rivals. I don't want to hear anything about a conflict of interest."

Avi nodded, and stalked away. "Stupid mother, already spreading stupid rumors. Ruin take her," she muttered.

"Constable Renault, a letter just came for you," called one of her coworkers, a lanky man who seemed better matched for a clerk position than the constabulary.

Avi took the note and broke the seal, knowing already what would be inside.

Quote

My dearest daughter,

I'm so glad you joined me for tea last night, despite your rather abrupt and quite rude exit. I'm just trying to help you. You know I do worry about your state of living. It's simply because I love you.

I do hope you'll consider my offer. We'll be meeting with Lord Heron tonight. Please join us. I'll be sending another carriage. I'll also be sending a dress and some women to help with your hair and makeup. You will need to look your best, and I know you don't have much practice with that yourself.

It is terrible business, though, with the deaths. I'm sure you'll be fine though. No one would dare touch my daughter. They're probably too scared of you, like all of your past suitors.

With love,
Sera Renault

Avi threw the note in the bin next to her desk and left the office. She had a mission now, to find and bring justice to the killers. She'd worry about her mother later.

-----

It's quite the bandwagon that's popped up on Itiah. I'm not sure I see the full reasoning behind it. Most of his statements have felt very in-line with his style in past games.

Rathmaskal is second in line for the lynch, and I'm not so sure I agree with that one either. It seems mostly centered around their belief there may be an eliminator among those who voted on CadCom. While that's possible, I also think it's a fairly NAI sentiment, since I've seen villager and elims focus on bandwagon votes in the past.

I'm a little curious about Ark. For the second cycle, they've voted near the end, joining a bandwagon. This could be inexperience, but it seems a bit odd to me.

Ark/Young Bard

[MetaTerminal]

Ark, Elandera

Right now, I’m mostly just getting an inexperienced vibe from Ark - not inactive, persay, but holding back. It’s entirely possible that they are elim, but it is always harder to tell. (If you could speak up a little more, Ark, that would be excellent - if you’re village it would help us to clear you. And if you’re elim - well, who doesn’t like a little bit of lynching every now and then? )

I did a read of Fifth, and while his posts are strangely worded, that’s all very circumstantial. I do, however, take issue with voting Rath for what I read to be a fairly innocent although narrow way of trying to detect elims. If Fifth flips elim, then it’s entirely possible that several CadCom voters are also elim, and he was trying to prevent analysis of them. I will continue to praise Elandera.

[Gancho Libre]

1 hour ago, Young Bard said:

Could you elaborate on that, Gancho? Why do you feel suspicious about Ark?

 

2 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

Itiah seems suspicious, he keeps going in, saying he doesn't have time to vote, then giving us reasons to do things.

I will take that vote away if he gives me evidence against it.

And my reasoning for Orlok is the same as earlier.

1

It's as I said. The tone is a bit suspicious. Not just because it's brief, cuz that would make me a hypocrite, but it's this:

2 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

I will take that vote away if he gives me evidence against it.

 

I get a little suspicious when people say that. I think it's obvious. If someone provides evidence against the charge of elim-ness, then it goes without saying that every sane people will get off their case. This sentence gives me the feeling that Ark is trying not to make anyone angry. And in a world where people are trying to catch spiked murderers, not making someone angry should be the last thing on a good guy's mind.

[Steeldancer]

Hm. Rathmaskal, my vote on you was a bit of a place holder. Your actions are not really all that suspicious in terms of things. I could- and have- seen elims focus on the day one lynch, but I've also seen the village overly focus on it. Frankly, I'm suspicious of Metaterminal after that last post. Young Bard Young bard. Idk, that post just sets me off. 

[MetaTerminal]

If you could elaborate a bit more on why that post set you off, that would be excellent - especially since you agreed with me in its first half.

4 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Your actions are not really all that suspicious in terms of things.

Which is what I said:

23 minutes ago, MetaTerminal said:

I do, however, take issue with voting Rath for what I read to be a fairly innocent although narrow way of trying to detect elims.

It’s this, combined with the aforementioned odd tone that I started to pick up on a second read through, that set me off on Fifth. I don’t see Rath as elim, and I think Ark is just inexperienced.

[Steeldancer]

Just now, MetaTerminal said:

If you could elaborate a bit more on why that post set you off, that would be excellent - especially since you agreed with me in its first half.

Which is what I said:

It’s this, combined with the aforementioned odd tone that I started to pick up on a second read through, that set me off on Fifth. I don’t see Rath as elim, and I think Ark is just inexperienced.

I know, I agree with your opinion, but something about the wording... Idk. Something about 

27 minutes ago, MetaTerminal said:

Ark, Elandera

Right now, I’m mostly just getting an inexperienced vibe from Ark - not inactive, persay, but holding back. It’s entirely possible that they are elim, but it is always harder to tell. (If you could speak up a little more, Ark, that would be excellent - if you’re village it would help us to clear you. And if you’re elim - well, who doesn’t like a little bit of lynching every now and then? )

I did a read of Fifth, and while his posts are strangely worded, that’s all very circumstantial.

just feels off. Like, it's fake analysis. I can't quite put my finger on it. But this is my first real gut read, so I'm going to follow it and see what happens. 

[xinoehp512]

Haven't had time this cycle to look over things yet. Probably not putting in a vote today.

[Wyrmhero]

Turn's over, please stand by.

[Wyrmhero]

Evening Edition 2

 

The Elendel Daily

Newsworthy Content for Every Octant!

The 24th of Doxil, 68, Evening

Price 2 Clips

Another Death as Investigation is ‘Concluded’

Governor Wilson was rushed from a meeting this afternoon by his guards, after other officials started to riot as he said that the investigation into the suspicious deaths around House Heron had been ‘concluded’.

As he made the statement, it was met with jeers from the others in the meeting and questions of bribery and corruption within the governor’s office and the investigative team. The governor attempted to calm them, but became irate when asked about his new mansion out in New Seran. When the question was asked, he declared the meeting adjourned, and made a quick exit to avoid further scrutiny.

In an interview given exclusively to The Elendel Daily (see pages 4, 5 for further details), Councillor Brug Jernaq stated that his peers were extremely frustrated by the lack of transparency within this decision, and that it was merely another example in a string of questionable and suspicious decisions made under his regime*. He also has stated that he plans to protest this ‘inaction’ on the Governor’s part, and will be seeking to gather signatures from the nobility to dismiss the Governor from his duties in protest.

This furore also comes as yet another body is found in suspicious and violent circumstances. This brings the total number of deaths surrounding House Heron up to four, but even now there are fears that this will not be the end of it. In all the pubs and meeting places of the city, one question is on everyone's many more must die before the city is safe again?

*The Elendel Daily wish to point out that the Governor is not under investigation, and has not been charged with any wrongdoing, and any views stated by Councillor Brug Jernaq are their own views, and are not representative of The Elendel Daily. 

Garrik Urbain

 

Commercial Advertisements

Spoiler

Dibble’s Central Cuisine      

An unforgettable experience in an unforgettable atmosphere..

Special Central Dominance cuisine, cooked fresh from frozen.

Wine and Dine in comfort, then visit New Seran.

Sponsored by the New Seran Tourist Board.

 

Imperial Ironpullers

Out the night with the walking?

Fearing of the murdering?

Ising the needing of the guarding?

Asking of Imperial Ironpullers.

 

Other Headlines This Evening

Spoiler

Imperial News – Constable Chief SLAMS Coroner for ‘False’ Cause of Death

The Daily Council – Investigation Cut Short, Governor Accused of Corruption

The Hazekiller – Industrial Smog Cloud Looms Over Elendil

The Financial Broadsheet – Lord Tekiel Appeals Inquiry Decision

The Copper Star – SHOCK as Faceless Immortal Conspiracy THREATENS Government

 

Obituary

Spoiler

Far away, Itiah XIII got mail.

Itiah XIII was very different from Itiah XII. Itiah XIII was Itiah XII’s son. And now that Itiah XII was dead, it was left to Itiah XIII to claim the inheritance, a set of belongings tracing back to Itiah XI, Itiah X, Itiah IX, Itiah VIII, Itiah VII, Itiah VI, Itiah V, Itiah IV, Itiah III, Itiah II. and finally the original Itiah. The belongings came with a note.

It read:

Dear Itiah XIII,

If you’re reading this, it means I, Itiah XII, have died trying to collect someone’s inheritance. But at least you got this note! So that’s good, I guess. I’m actually writing this before anything interesting happens, so I may just not die and you’ll never see this note. That Locke fellow looks suspicous... anyway, goodbye!

The note came with a selfie Itiah XII took with his killer, a knife in his back, smiling.

 

Previous Editions

Spoiler

16th Doxil 68, Morning (Signups)

23rd Doxil 68, Morning

23rd Doxil, 68, Evening

24th Doxil, 68, Morning

 

Itiah XII/I think I am here. was a Rioter!

There was a draw for Praise votes, there is no Influential player next Day.

Night 2 has begun! It will end at 7PM GMT on Wednesday 7th November.

A Tineye is alive, so you may continue sending PMs this Night.

I'm finding purple Praise votes to be a little bit difficult to find when embedded in a lot of black text if it's the darker shades of purple, so if you do Praise someone within a wall of text, could you please bold your vote or make sure to use the lighter shade?

 

Assassinate Votes

Spoiler

Itiah XII/I think I am here (4): Quintus/Jondesu, Jendred/Young Bard, Locke Tekiel/Orlok Tsubodai, Aniah Arkwood/Ark1002

Count Olaf/Fifth Scholar (2): Ookla the Curmudgoenly/Araris Valerian, The Immortal Kalfaix/MetaTerminal

Aniah Arkwood/Ark1002 (2): Avi/Elandera, George RD Mackleberry/Gancho Libre

Eviterces/xinoehp512 (1): Lord Flamingo/Rathmaskal

The Immortal Kalfaix/MetaTerminal (1): Ookla of Squids/Steeldancer

Lord Flamingo/Rathmaskal (0): Count Olaf/Fifth Scholar

 

Praise Votes

Spoiler

Count Olaf/Fifth Scholar (3): Quintus/Jondesu, Jendred/Young Bard, Gancho Libre/George RD Mackleberry

Avi/Elandera (3): Count Olaf/Fifth Scholar, The Immortal Kalfaix/MetaTerminal

Jendred/Young Bard (2): Avi/Elandera, Ookla of Squids/Steeldancer

Locke Tekiel/Orlok Tsubodai (2): Ookla the Curmudgeonly/Araris Valerian, Aniah Arkwood/Ark1002

Itiah XII/I think I am here. (1): Lord Flamingo/Rathmaskal

Tomir Izenry/Aonar Faileas (1): Locke Tekiel/Orlok Tsubodai

 

Total Influence

Spoiler

Count Olaf/Fifth Scholar: 10

Locke Tekiel/Orlok Tsubodai: 5

Avi/Elandera: 3

Jendred/Young Bard: 3

Sabine Seidel/A Joe in the Bush: 1

Tomir Izenry/Aonar Faileas: 1

Quintus/Jondesu: 1

Ookla of Squids/Steeldancer: 1

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. xinoehp512 - Eviterces, a person of unknown quality. Why would they hide themselves like this?
2. I think I am here. - Itiah XII. What happened to the other eleven? Rioter
3. Fifth Scholar - Count Olaf, an old vassal that once was under the influence of Ruin. Ruin is gone, but what's to stop him falling under evil influence again?
4. Jondesu - Quintus, an old hat at situations like this. Makes you wonder how he lived through them to tell the tale...
5. Elandera - Avi, a person who has no idea what an Ookla Season is. Is that the truth, or are they perhaps lying?
6. Araris Valerian - Ookla the Curmudgeonly, an old man with a stern face. Perhaps evil is concealed within that stony visage.
7. Cadmium Compounder - Miumounder, also known as CadCom. Why would someone need two names? Soother
8. Young Bard - Jendred, eighth son, and thus unimportant. You can probably ignore him.
9. Gancho Libre - George R.D. Mackleberry. Never trust a man with two middle initials.
10. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, named for a ruler of Fadrex City, beloved by all. This character is different in two regards.
11. Steeldancer - Ookla of Squids. (This is getting out of hand, now there are two of them)
12. Rathmaskal - Lord Flamingo, flamboyant and fond of hopping.
13. Snipexe - Snip Exeutor, has stopped working. Noble
14. Coop772 - Burrsir, too cool for school.
15. Shqueeves - Ookla That Watches, definitely a Tineye.
16. Furamirionid - Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, Fura to his friends (if he has any).
17. Aonar Faileas - Tomir Izenry, only here for the money.
18. A Joe in the Bush - Sabine Seidel, of questionable sanity.
19. Ark1002 - Aniah Arkwood, from the roughs. Sticks out like a sore thumb in these fancy settings.
20. Nohadon - Severance Greed, greedy by name, greedy by repeated examples of taking more than his fair share throughout his life.
21. MetaTerminal - The Immortal Kalfaix, a travelling magician. You can't trust these out-of-towners...
22. Devotary of Spontaneity - Tessona, a Sliverist, but assuredly maybe probably not one of the bad guys. Noble

Edited November 7, 2018 by Wyrmhero

[Steeldancer]

Where'd my vote go? 

[Wyrmhero]

8 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Where'd my vote go? 

The question no GM wants to hear... Thankfully this one doesn't change the result, editing it in.

[Elandera]

The first notable thing I've noticed is Fifth's influential vote on Rath was soothed (possibly Rioted, but that's based on the answer to my following questions).

@Wyrmhero, is a Rioter required to vote in order for their action to work? Can a rioter make a vote a no-vote?

There are a few possible things we can learn from the choice to soothe Fifth's vote:

1. Rathmaskal is a soother
2. Rathmaskal has a soother in their house who wanted to make sure vote manipulation didn't end with Rath's death
3. Rathmaskal is an elim, soothing for the same reason as option 2
4. Elims wanted to set up Rathmaskal (as seen in a recent LG, can't remember which though) to get village to focus on a mislynch

I'm currently leading to option 4, since the sudden pile of votes on Itiah seems very unusual to me. There seemed to be very little justification, even less than there was for CadCom's lynch.

Quote

Fifth Scholar, Aonar, Itiah, Aonar.

Reasoning forthcoming as soon as I have time

@Orlok Tsubodai, I would love still to hear your reasoning.