Long Game 50: News of My Demise

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Fifth Scholar, I'll give you significant credit for your post. You make a very important point, and one that has led me to take more time than I should have spared to think on it.

I think there are two key reasons for my difference in actions in this game and in historical games. The first of these is simply engagement. I think my instinctive behaviour is one of optimisation, which I then temper with consideration of other factors. When I'm engaged and thinking about the game, I spend considerably longer considering things like fun. When I condemned Cadmium, I was celebrating my 21st with my family, and wasn't nearly as thoughtful about the game. @Cadmium Compounder, for that, I am sorry.

I do think, though, that there is a tangible difference in the cases - or at least one significant enough to put me into a mode of thinking where I didn't think about fun. Unlike Stink and Alv, as notable examples, Cadmium brought up directly that he was trying to obscure his alignment. I think there's a difference in attitude there that makes a consideration of the Commons relevant. Related to this is the consideration about the general fun. We went through a period in SE where the village were not winning games. We had a real crisis of analysis. In a situation like that, I believe the general fun diminishes significantly, as there isn't a spirit of friendly competition to the same degree - there's something that starts to become resigned inevitability. 

In that sense, the policy lynch on Cadmium was justifiable to make an example, given his declaration that his actions were entirely to make him more difficult to read.

That said, I will continue thinking about this, and appreciate your time and effort in pointing out my inconsistency, Fifth.

Edit: To clarify, I think that when Cadmium declared he was taking his action to deliberately make himself harder to read, that was equivalent to declaring an intention of his to play in a more optimal manner, rather than because of a motivation to have more fun in a new playstyle. At that point, I think the village are justified in acting themselves in an optimal manner (the discussion being one of efficacy), rather than considering fun to the same degree.

Edited November 4, 2018 by Orlok Tsubodai

[Fifth Scholar]

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I do think, though, that there is a tangible difference in the cases - or at least one significant enough to put me into a mode of thinking where I didn't think about fun. Unlike Stink and Alv, as notable examples, Cadmium brought up directly that he was trying to obscure his alignment. I think there's a difference in attitude there that makes a consideration of the Commons relevant. Related to this is the consideration about the general fun. We went through a period in SE where the village were not winning games. We had a real crisis of analysis. In a situation like that, I believe the general fun diminishes significantly, as there isn't a spirit of friendly competition to the same degree - there's something that starts to become resigned inevitability. 

 

1 hour ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Edit: To clarify, I think that when Cadmium declared he was taking his action to deliberately make himself harder to read, that was equivalent to declaring an intention of his to play in a more optimal manner, rather than because of a motivation to have more fun in a new playstyle. At that point, I think the village are justified in acting themselves in an optimal manner (the discussion being one of efficacy), rather than considering fun to the same degree.

I do agree with you on these points. My objection, as I’ve hopefully made clear, is not to this specific lynch attempt, which I believe was justified (as evidenced by the fact that I eventually added my vote to it), but rather a broader plea to avoid using this same logic to condemn others later when there aren’t the other factors present as well that contribute to a lynch case. I think we can hopefully agree that using an alignment-obscuring strategy in some posts to have a bit of fun is perfectly fine, which (as you pointed out) Stink or Alv often do, but that making it a primary consideration without the light-hearted amusement present beneath it is a more serious matter, and justifies a more serious response from the village if it begins to threaten our ability to analyse. My main point in all of this is simply that we should be careful in applying any logic that relates to playstyles when we’re analysing and voting on others, and avoid creating an “optimal” playstyle that we force others to adhere to. As I think we’ve reached a point of agreement, regardless, I think we could continue this conversation in Meta Discussion once this game is over if we believe there are unresolved points, but for now I’d prefer that this doesn’t overly distract from the lynch discussion for today, which hasn’t really started yet. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Just now, Fifth Scholar said:

As I think we’ve reached a point of agreement, regardless, I think we could continue this conversation in Meta Discussion once this game is over if we believe there are unresolved points, but for now I’d prefer that this doesn’t overly distract from the lynch discussion for today, which hasn’t really started yet. 

On the contrary, Fifth, I've kept my lynch vote on you. I do very much appreciate your input, and you've definitely been making me thing, but I can't quite place something that seems off about your posts this game.

[Fifth Scholar]

I...apologise...if I’m setting off your unconscious Eliminator alarms?  Regardless, I meant our discussion about policy lynches when I made that statement, not our viewpoints in general. Would you mind expounding upon your suspicions of me? 

Also, @I think I am here., there isn’t a great way to summarise the past cycle—it was mainly characterised by general lynch discussion that was very spread out which quickly shifted onto CadCom in the waning hours of the cycle, and the Night was mainly reflection on that bandwagon. Something I believe isn’t currently getting enough attention are the two kills from this cycle, with Snip and Devotary both killed. Neither particularly jumps out as an obvious target early on, which makes me think one of them may have said something in-thread, or in a PM, that got them killed, rather than a more generic early target. I’ll be hopefully looking further into their interactions later tonight. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I...apologise...if I’m setting off your unconscious Eliminator alarms?  Regardless, I meant our discussion about policy lynches when I made that statement, not our viewpoints in general. Would you mind expounding upon your suspicions of me? 

Also, @I think I am here., there isn’t a great way to summarise the past cycle—it was mainly characterised by general lynch discussion that was very spread out which quickly shifted onto CadCom in the waning hours of the cycle, and the Night was mainly reflection on that bandwagon. Something I believe isn’t currently getting enough attention are the two kills from this cycle, with Snip and Devotary both killed. Neither particularly jumps out as an obvious target early on, which makes me think one of them may have said something in-thread, or in a PM, that got them killed, rather than a more generic early target. I’ll be hopefully looking further into their interactions later tonight. 

I'll happily do so after my midterm tomorrow (in about nineteen hours). For now, I'd note the above post did so in the bolded section. Many eliminator teams select targets that are deliberately difficult to analyse. You've had a large role in driving discussion this game, and I can see you trying to send the village on a wild goose chase with the above.

[Fifth Scholar]

48 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I'll happily do so after my midterm tomorrow (in about nineteen hours). For now, I'd note the above post did so in the bolded section. Many eliminator teams select targets that are deliberately difficult to analyse. You've had a large role in driving discussion this game, and I can see you trying to send the village on a wild goose chase with the above.

This is interesting, but I have to question your logic in several ways. First of all, one of your main points is that I am a “main driver of discussion,” a term which may be rightfully applied to you, and a position that is hardly unique for me as a villager (AG4; LG42/43/46; MR29/31). My status as a driver of discussion has little bearing on the Elim kill unless you’re working from the assumption that I’m an Eliminator, which is a bad place to begin analysis. Second, even if I was an Eliminator, there is no indication as to how I would select kill targets, as you have nothing prior to this game to draw on. I’ve been an Elim exactly once, a converted one in MR31, and had no kill to work with other than one that our team was essentially directing mindlessly at the last villager we needed to kill. To add on to this, there are other players who select targets by attempting to starve the village of information, yourself again included. We don’t even know if that’s how the Elims are selecting their targets—one kill is hardly enough to see a pattern. Third, what would you have said if I had dismissed the kills as something that we couldn’t learn anything from? You likely would have (rightly) called me out on trying to stifle information. In addition, I haven’t led anyone on a “wild goose chase” anywhere, but your comment has the effect of colouring any analysis I may perform on the kills from here on, and altogether I’m unsure why you’re taking these steps. Is there any reason in particular you believe analysis should not be performed on last night’s kills?

[I think I am here.]

Thanks, Fifth. Unfortunately, if anyone reveals Snip or Devotary revealed personal information to them in a PM that automatically makes them a suspect for being an elim, so I’m not sure if we’d get anywhere there.

Will say/edit more later. I got to go know.

[Fifth Scholar]

Very quickly, as I’ve got about three minutes before I’ll not be able to respond for 12 hours:

-More people should talk. This thread looks like a PM between Orlok and I with occasional interjections from Itiah.  

-I looked briefly at the kills but didn’t have enough time to significantly analyse them, which I’ll hopefully do later tonight. From my brief perusal, the Snipexe kill is the stranger of the two, imo. 

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I'm in firm agreement about the need for more people to contribute. If neither Fifth nor I are evil, this thread will give very little information to the village.

Fifth, in brief response to your last post, the part of the prior post I bolded was simply illustrative of the sort of thing setting me on edge. I don't normally believe there to be much value in analysis of early kills anyway, and think we'll get far more out of last thread, so a move to discuss something I consider of very limited value would clearly be seen as a warning sign.

[Araris Valerian]

I’ll try and post something substantial before noon. But it will be a bit.

[Rathmaskal]

Lord Flamingo was getting a pedicure.  But he couldn't relax.  All this arguing going on about who killed who and why.  As long as his claim for the title of Lord Heron wasn't affected, he didn't care who killed who.  But he was beginning to catch wind of a group of people working to prevent the title from being passed at all.  How rude of them.  He waved off the servants and prepared to join the conversation.  He couldn't truly relax as long as there was this much tension around.  Maybe he'd get a facial this afternoon once he was done arguing...

~~

So, I'm trying to get any kind of read on the D1 activity.  5 votes on CadCom...I'm going to assume that at least one (and likely only one) of those was from an elim.  Right now I'm waffling between Xino and Elandera as the most likely two.  The fact that Fifth and Orlok have managed to have such a lengthy conversation with little (really, no) interruption makes me think that the elims are fine with where the conversation is going...which right now is basically nowhere.  (which they've both kind of admitted to as well)

For now, I'm going to place my vote on Xinoehp.  I'll mostly be around throughout the day to keep up on the thread.

As for the praise, I'll go with Itiah for now...for being the first to break up the Fifth Orlok wall of text.

[Araris Valerian]

I was just about to post something about Xino and Elandera as well. But I don't think that's enough for me to want to lynch one of them yet. Right now I'd like to know from @MetaTerminal what his worry about Orlok getting the praise vote was. Also, Shqueeves Snipexe had his vote on Ark, and then was killed. I guess I'll praise Rathmaskal for having a similar train of thought to me.

I don't think we should lynch either Fifth or Orlok this cycle. If either of them is elim, then their level of conversation will give us a lot more information as them gaem goes on, and if we kill one of them, I'm worried that the rest of the village won't step up and do analysis.

Edited November 5, 2018 by Araris Valerian
Wrong name that starts with "s"

[Furamirionind]

Sorry, I really don't have much time between now and tomorrow morning to post/analyze anything... After tomorrow morning (hopefully before rollover), my schedule should become much more normal...

I didn't think Snipexe's death was all that strange.  Bard mentioned that if he was elim, it could put some of the other people who voted for Cadcom under suspicion.  Though I don't necessarily agree with this statement, I could see why people could at first glance.  Devotary explained this away, but there were several people who said they didn't have much time, and may have taken their actions hastily because of it.

Given other circumstances, I would agree it is strange, but unless I am missing something, in my head, this seems to make sense to me.

Devotary didn't say much (or anything really) that I would interpret as putting a target on their head, but I need to reread the first day as well, which I haven't done yet.
I will try to get another post in before the rollover.  If I can't, I will definitely post something after the rollover.

1 minute ago, Araris Valerian said:

Also, Shqueeves had his vote on Ark, and then was killed

I am pretty sure Shqueeves is still alive...

[Elandera]

5 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

From my brief perusal, the Snipexe kill is the stranger of the two, imo. 

I disagree. If you consider Young Bard's post from N1, it's not so unusual. 

Quote

I generally believe Orlok's and Fifth's votes seem genuine and well thought out, but Xino, Elandara, and MetaTerminal seemed to bandwagon on. Especially if Snip flips Elim, I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or two of these people are also Eliminators.

Of the two, I'd consider Snipexe's death to be a well-meaning village coinshot kill. As Bard said, if Snip flipped elim it would narrow down the list of possible elim suspects quite well. (Ninja'd by Fura) Devotary's death is the more unusual to me, which makes me think it's likely the elim kill.

Here's my brief summary of major points from D1:

• Fifth made the first substantial post, pointing out house mechanics and including a poke vote on Snipexe and a praise vote for Orlok.
• The Furamirionind debacle, which led to a few votes on several people.
  • CadCom's first post calling out Joe for an apparent early bandwagon on Fura.
• Orlok being suspicious of Fifth's flattering, and Fifth's response.
• Devotary suggesting a smoker for the Influential player to avoid vote manipulation, and countering Fifth's suggestion there might not be a coinshot.
• More discussion over whether it's smart or not to give Orlok extra voting power.
• Young Bard being mildly suspicious of Fifth, giving village lean to CadCom for mixing up Devotary and Orlok in a prior post.
• Snipexe disagreeing with the lynch against him, since it seemed to be full of more random votes than reasonable ones.
• Devotary calls out Shqueeves for having a "random" vote on someone who already had a vote (Snipexe).
• CadCom disagrees with Snip's lynch, agrees with praising Orlok, then brings up several points about possible outcomes of elims becoming Influential. He then provides a brief analysis.
• Fifth writes rather long post, seemingly in an effort to generate more discussion. Asks people questions about motivations for their votes. Agrees with Aonar that focusing on praise might not be helpful, and asking Ark why he voted on Snipexe.
• CadCom says he's switching up his playstyle, and the bandwagon begins with Orlok.
  • Fifth's analysis of CadCom's posts, mostly pointing out a rambling and confusing style.
  • Devotary says he seems more focused on summarizing than analysis.
  • Xino doesn't think the sudden switch feels village.
  • I said his posts were counterproductive for the village cause.
  • MetaTerminal agreeing.
• CadCom provides a counter argument, voting on Snipexe in an effort to save himself (probably with soothing abilities)

After all of that and seeing some of the interactions, here is a list of people I suspect might be elim

• Shqueeves - If Devotary's death was an elim kill, her post calling him out for a random vote might have been part of the reason for her death. That vote also seems fairly suspicious to me. There are plenty of people who don't lead votes, but it's also a comfortable place for an elim to be. With a vote already on Snipexe, an RNG vote seems out of place.
• MetaTerminal - They joined the CadCom lynch fairly easily and without much explanation. It's not enough yet for me to call for a lynch, but it's enough for me to keep an eye on them. I might also include Xino, but I haven't seem much from them to go one way or the other.
• Fifth Scholar - This could be my overly paranoid mind, but as Orlok and Bard had pointed out, some of Fifth's statements just feel a bit off. He's been contributing a lot, but it's also been a fairly supportive role rather than a leading one as I usually see from him. However, there are several things he's done that definitely feel village. I think I'll hold off for now, but keep an eye on him.

I am also getting a fairly good village vibe from Bard. 

Shqueeves/Young Bard

[Young Bard]

My assignments are all done now, so hopefully that means I'll be able to contribute more now, though hopefully we'll get more people contributing than just those who have so far.

I already mentioned last night what I thought of the whole CadCom lynch, and how that relates to the meta of SE. I feel like repeating those points here and continuing a fairly NAI conversation would be useless, though it might be worth bringing up in the meta discussion thread after the game is over. To me, it looks like everything said here was what Fifth and Orlok actually believe, so there's no game-relevant information to be gleaned there. Orlok seemed to think Fifth was being strangely hyperfocused on the lynch between the thread and PM's - I didn't particularly get that impression from the thread, and I don't have access to their PM's, so it's hard to say.

There's an interesting effect in the rules - a Seeker can't tell when they get Roleless Noble whether it's someone who's been Smoked or whether it's an actual Roleless Noble. However, if a Seeker were to scan a Roleless Noble, and then, through some sort of collaboration, a Soother/Rioter tried to vote manipulate that person the next Day, then it can be confirmed whether a player is or is not being Smoked. As such, to the Seeker(s) (probably singular, but who knows) out there, if you scan a Village Soother or Rioter, I'd claim to them in PM's and set some sort of system up. Village Smokers, it might be better for you to not Smoke people, or at least be prepared to claim if a lynch train arrives on someone you Smoked, blocking a Seeker scan.

As for suspicions... I now know that Snipexe is innocent, so my analysis from last night doesn't count towards anything. It could be an attempt to protect an Eliminator Orlok, but neither Araris nor Aonar's votes seem out of character for me, nor did Orlok's vote seem like a vote that had much chance of gaining momentum or needing a bandwagon to save Orlok from the lynch. In place of actual thinking and analysis, since it's 4 in the morning, I'll pokevote Steeldancer to do the analysis for me, since he said last night that he was going to post his thoughts later, and he hasn't done so yet. (I'll try and form an actual opinion when I'm awake tomorrow - I couldn't find anything that stood out to me looking at the thread - neither Devotary nor Snipexe posted anything that seems likely to cause an Elim to want to murder them, nor did anything else strike me as particularly off.)

Since I need to give a Praise Vote, I'll Praise Araris, because they posted as I'm typing this and they seem to have decent points.

---

Jendred leant against the lamppost, eyes slowly skimming over the paper. Seems like some of the competitors of the competition had gone and got themselves killed. That was just too bad - but, Jendred supposed, if they didn't know how to handle themselves, then that was their own fault. Plus, it meant less competition for him. With any luck, the rest of the competition would get themselves blown up too, leaving him an open pathway to that inheritance. Slowly, Jendred folded up the paper and began to stroll on his way.

[MetaTerminal]

My Orlok opinion was largely kneejerk reaction to an unusual power being granted to an experienced player, which I wasn’t entirely sure what to make of. Looking back I think I shouldn’t have reacted in such a way, as Orlok hasn’t done anything that indicates elim for me. But at the time people reporting him as possibly dangerous was enough to set off alarm bells. I’ll try not to do that again.

As for the CadCom lynch; as others have stated, with several experienced players pushing this lynch pretty heavily, it’s understandable that some village would jump on board without much trouble (especially since the Snip lynch seemed to originate from a pokevote). Given the numbers there will probably be at least one elim among there, but I think who that elim is can’t be determined by whether or not they joined the lynch, as it’s something both village and elim would want to push. (But, again, I will try to explain my votes in greater detail into the future beyond agreeing with someone).

Lynch:

Fifth (1): Orlok, Orlok

Shqueeves (3): Fifth, Elandera

Ark (1): Araris

Xino (1): Rathmaksal

Steel (1): Bard

Praise

Snip (0): Orlok

Aonar (1): Orlok

Elandera (2): Fifth

Itiah (1): Rathmaksal

Rathmaksal (1): Araris

Bard (1): Elandera

Araris (1): Bard

I realise this post isn’t very substantial, so I will try and do some solid analysis soon.

[Shqueeves]

22 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

In terms of my double-vote, which will likely get manipulated somehow, Shqueeves, you’ve dropped in once to make a completely random vote, but have been following the thread and presumably PMing. Care to comment publicly on recent developments?

Sorry, I was spending time with my family so I haven't been able to follow closely. I'll look over the thread again after my classes today, and hopefully I'll have formed some sort of opinion by then.

@Elandera could you explain your reasoning for voting me specifically?

[Elandera]

1 minute ago, Shqueeves said:

@Elandera could you explain your reasoning for voting me specifically?

It has to do with your RNG vote on Snipexe, then Devotary's death after having raised suspicion about that vote. However, now that I've had somemore time to think about it, that would be a fairly obvious (and probably not smart) elim move.

Shqueeves/Young Bard

[+Ark1002]

Orlok Tsubodai because I still want to find out how he would act with extra influence. I don't know for anyone else.

[Fifth Scholar]

9 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Fifth, in brief response to your last post, the part of the prior post I bolded was simply illustrative of the sort of thing setting me on edge. I don't normally believe there to be much value in analysis of early kills anyway, and think we'll get far more out of last thread, so a move to discuss something I consider of very limited value would clearly be seen as a warning sign.

That makes more sense then. Regardless, one of the main issues right now that I’ve noticed in recent games is that the village will rarely analyse kills except for the cycle after they happen, as they’re mostly forgotten as new information comes in. Therefore, while I am willing to delay this discussion if you believe it will be more fruitful to bring it up later, I believe forgetting it is a similarly bad idea.

5 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

So, I'm trying to get any kind of read on the D1 activity.  5 votes on CadCom...I'm going to assume that at least one (and likely only one) of those was from an elim.  Right now I'm waffling between Xino and Elandera as the most likely two.  The fact that Fifth and Orlok have managed to have such a lengthy conversation with little (really, no) interruption makes me think that the elims are fine with where the conversation is going...which right now is basically nowhere.  (which they've both kind of admitted to as well)

Shqueeves, Rathmaskal, Elandera, Elandera. I take several issues with this post; first, the assumption that there must be an Eliminator in a certain section of votes. It is not wrong to look at a group of votes and think an Elim may have made one of them, but looking at a group and deciding “there must be an Elim somewhere in here” is a great way to, as Orlok would put it, go on a wild goose-chase. Perhaps Xino or Elandera are Elims—I will hopefully get a chance to look at both later—but starting with this presumption can only harm the village. LG46 had a similar situation, with a five-vote bandwagon on Araris that the Elims tried to turn into a series of lynches on the perpetrators. Also, I’d refute the assertion that the conversation was going nowhere—the circumstances surrounding CadCom’s lynch were worthy of further discussion, and at any rate Orlok and I were saying a lot of things that can be analysed, especially when I was responding to his particular allegations against me. Dismissing the beginning half of the cycle isn’t wise, in my opinion. 

8 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

I don't think we should lynch either Fifth or Orlok this cycle. If either of them is elim, then their level of conversation will give us a lot more information as them gaem goes on, and if we kill one of them, I'm worried that the rest of the village won't step up and do analysis.

A wonderful solution to this is, of course, to simply analyse more yourselves, villagers.  Regardless, I appreciate your desire to keep me alive, but think that this is a poor reason to postpone a lynch—the most suspicious player ought to be lynched irrespective of activity if they’re significantly more suspect than the next person. 

8 hours ago, Elandera said:

Of the two, I'd consider Snipexe's death to be a well-meaning village coinshot kill. As Bard said, if Snip flipped elim it would narrow down the list of possible elim suspects quite well. (Ninja'd by Fura) Devotary's death is the more unusual to me, which makes me think it's likely the elim kill.

Devotary was also not present on Bard’s list of people that bandwagoned onto CadCom, and her flip makes the bandwagon on CadCom look slightly cleaner than it perhaps did at first, and also eliminates a person who can often be difficult to read. So there definitely could be villager motives for taking her out. That said, your point about Snipexe is a good one, and does make a larger amount of sense as a Coinshot target. (It also assumes our Coinshot was active enough to see and analyse the thread, but that’s most of the living players.) 

8 hours ago, Elandera said:

Fifth Scholar - This could be my overly paranoid mind, but as Orlok and Bard had pointed out, some of Fifth's statements just feel a bit off. He's been contributing a lot, but it's also been a fairly supportive role rather than a leading one as I usually see from him. However, there are several things he's done that definitely feel village. I think I'll hold off for now, but keep an eye on him.

I’d be grateful if you could elaborate on anything “off” you’ve seen from me-I understand if it’s mostly gut, but I’d like to be able to defend myself and can’t if I don’t understand what I’m being accused of. Also, I’d argue that I am taking a leading role, but am doing these long multiquotes because it allows me to focus my limited time, and makes contribution easy by responding to previously made points, and building on them. Nevertheless, I’d say that I’ve contributed a significant portion of original analysis so far, and am curious as to why you believe I am playing in a “reactionary” manner.

8 hours ago, Young Bard said:

To me, it looks like everything said here was what Fifth and Orlok actually believe, so there's no game-relevant information to be gleaned there. Orlok seemed to think Fifth was being strangely hyperfocused on the lynch between the thread and PM's - I didn't particularly get that impression from the thread, and I don't have access to their PM's, so it's hard to say.

Reiterating the point I made to Rath; there was game-relevant information inside my interactions with Orlok, and denying the lack of such out of hand is a bad idea. The four or five posts from Orlok at the beginning of the cycle will be of significant use if I later analyse him, and our interaction in general could very much be analysed by others who don’t have my personal bias. 

4 hours ago, Elandera said:

It has to do with your RNG vote on Snipexe, then Devotary's death after having raised suspicion about that vote. However, now that I've had somemore time to think about it, that would be a fairly obvious (and probably not smart) elim move.

Shqueeves/Young Bard

Obvious elim moves can be obvious, but are often employed as a kind of double-bluff. Take the entire Mordor team voting as a block in QF27, or STINK’s manipulation in QF25 where he acted so much like a jester people thought he was just an Eliminator trying to escape the lynch, and started an enormous bandwagon on him. (He was an Eliminator Jester.) Clearing people for Eliminator-type behavior, even if it’s of the blatantly obvious variety, is a bad road to go down as the long-term consequences are people adopting obvious Eliminator practices to gain trust, which would be utterly backwards. 

53 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

Orlok Tsubodai because I still want to find out how he would act with extra influence. I don't know for anyone else.

Ark, you’ll need to add an Assassinate vote along with your Praise vote, or that won’t count. 

[Elandera]

47 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’d be grateful if you could elaborate on anything “off” you’ve seen from me-I understand if it’s mostly gut, but I’d like to be able to defend myself and can’t if I don’t understand what I’m being accused of. Also, I’d argue that I am taking a leading role, but am doing these long multiquotes because it allows me to focus my limited time, and makes contribution easy by responding to previously made points, and building on them. Nevertheless, I’d say that I’ve contributed a significant portion of original analysis so far, and am curious as to why you believe I am playing in a “reactionary” manner.

It's mostly a paranoid gut feeling. Nothing has stood out as blatantly problematic, which is why I'm not pushing for a lynch. Sorry that doesn't give much for you to refute. As for the reactionary, it had to do with your pattern of voting. Since I didn't track closely as I was reviewing the posts, I must have mistakenly placed your votes in the wrong chronological order. Looking at it again, I think the only vote you've made that came after someone else's vote was CadCom's, which came with your own analysis and reasoning. So that point is null, since it was my own oversight.

I have also realized my own votes have all been placed after someone else's vote (though with my earlier one on Shqueeves, I hadn't realized you'd placed your vote there as well).

That being said, your contributions are sliding you back to a village lean. I apologize if I'm seeming a little wish-washy with my opinions. NaNoWriMo is taking up a lot of my mental capacities right now.

53 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Obvious elim moves can be obvious, but are often employed as a kind of double-bluff. Take the entire Mordor team voting as a block in QF27, or STINK’s manipulation in QF25 where he acted so much like a jester people thought he was just an Eliminator trying to escape the lynch, and started an enormous bandwagon on him. (He was an Eliminator Jester.) Clearing people for Eliminator-type behavior, even if it’s of the blatantly obvious variety, is a bad road to go down as the long-term consequences are people adopting obvious Eliminator practices to gain trust, which would be utterly backwards. 

You make a good point. I don't think I have played in any games where elims used overtly elim tactics to appear village, so that's not something I have tried to watch for.

I'm not going to place another vote yet, as I don't have a solid suspicion. If I were to do so now, I'd probably place it back on Shqueeves. I'll try to review him once again a little more closely before the end of the cycle.

[Steeldancer]

This was a bad idea for me. School just ramped up 100% this week. I'll try to find time to get on here and actually read what all of you are saying once (if) I finish all my homework, but I've got to focus on that and testing so that I can go to a signing tomorrow. I apologize. 

[Rathmaskal]

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Shqueeves, Rathmaskal, Elandera, Elandera. I take several issues with this post; first, the assumption that there must be an Eliminator in a certain section of votes. It is not wrong to look at a group of votes and think an Elim may have made one of them, but looking at a group and deciding “there must be an Elim somewhere in here” is a great way to, as Orlok would put it, go on a wild goose-chase. Perhaps Xino or Elandera are Elims—I will hopefully get a chance to look at both later—but starting with this presumption can only harm the village. LG46 had a similar situation, with a five-vote bandwagon on Araris that the Elims tried to turn into a series of lynches on the perpetrators. Also, I’d refute the assertion that the conversation was going nowhere—the circumstances surrounding CadCom’s lynch were worthy of further discussion, and at any rate Orlok and I were saying a lot of things that can be analysed, especially when I was responding to his particular allegations against me. Dismissing the beginning half of the cycle isn’t wise, in my opinion. 

You're making a lot of assumptions and misreadings in your interpretation here.

I did not say I was looking at a specific group of votes.  The fact that Xino and Elandera were 3rd and 4th is somewhat notable.  I was more concerned with the fact that they made rather weak attempts at justifying their votes: "suspicious" and "confusing" were about all that came about.  Meta's justification was pretty weak as well.

I didn't say the conversation wasn't useful to begin with...but the two of you talking back and forth for a dozen posts or so didn't seem to be providing additional at that point.  I'm not discounting your conversation up to the point and I never said I was. 

I guess I can understand your confusion there...but it seems as if you're putting a lot of words in my mouth with your interpretation.

[Araris Valerian]

@Rathmaskal In fact you did say you were looking at a specific group of votes; the group of votes on Cadcom. While I agree that if an elim was in on the lynch, 3rd or 4th would have been a good place to sneak in, there are problems with assuming "X elims must be in this group of people". While usually this comes up with role distribution and GMs being trolls, it's relevant here too.

Ark/Rath. Ark doesn't seem to be around, and to be honest, there wasn't a super great reason behind my vote on him.

I also rescind my opinion that we shouldn't kill Orlok/Fifth this cycle. I sort of agree with what Orlok has said about you, Fifth, and I also think your vote on Rath is a little strongly worded. My SE paranoia has also kicked in and started me on thinking that you and Orlok are both elims playing off of each other.

I may have time to come back and change votes, but don't plan on me being able to respond to a good justification in time.

[I think I am here.]

Fifth and Orlok seemed locked in battle, and if we lynch one of them we could get lots of information on the other. They’re giving us lots of information, but if one of them’s an elim then lots of that information is fake.

Or they could be both elims trying out distancing tatics (:P) but who knows. I will not push a lynch on Fifth, though. In some games my posts can also come across as slightly aggressive (MR30), I don’t think it indicates Fifth’s alignment.

So, I think we should one of them, just don’t know which one.