Long Game 50: News of My Demise

[+Ark1002]

My vote is on Snipexe/Orlok Tsubodai. I don't exactly have the msot accurate opinion, I've only been in two SE games, but that is my vote.

[Snipexe]

Ok, so literally the entire Lynch on me right now makes no sense. Fifth voted for me to make sure I posted again. That has reason. But this:

45 minutes ago, Ark1002 said:

My vote is on Snipexe/Orlok Tsubodai. I don't exactly have the msot accurate opinion, I've only been in two SE games, but that is my vote.

Doesn’t. You’re deciding the lynch based on a check in post. One in which I literally just said that I was going post later Ark this feels like an unexprienxe elim trying to screw over a villager.

Edit: For my praise vote, I’ll go ahead and support the Orlock also, @Fifth Scholar, you said you would change your vote after I posted... well here it is

Edited November 2, 2018 by Snipexe
Praise vote/tagging fifth

[Coop772]

I need to read the thread yet, but I'm not sure about how I feel about the snipe lynch, but giving Orlok power is probably bad knowing Orlok

[Gancho Libre]

Lynch:
Fifth (1) - Furamirionid
Furamirionid (2) - Joe, Orlok
Joe (1) - CadCom
Ark1002 (2) - Devotary, Snipexe
Nohadon (1) - Steeldancer
Snipexe (2) - Shqueeves, Fifth Scholar
Gancho Libre (1) - Young Bard
Itiah (1) - Gancho Libre
Jondesu (1) - Elandera
Orlok (1) - Araris

Praise:
Orlok (6) - Devotary, CadCom, Furamirionid, Fifth Scholar, Ark, Snipexe
Araris (1) - Orlok
Jondesu (1) - Joe
Aonar (1) - Steel
Joe (1) - Shqueeves
CadCom (1) - Young Bard
Fifth Scholar (3) - Gancho Libre, Elandera, Araris

Sorry if I miscounted anything.

It seems Orlock is gonna get the praise for Day 1. I'm tempted to change my lynch vote to him, in light of what several of you are saying (ex. that he's a dangerous elim), but I'll wait until Day 2 before acting. I'm curious to see what happens.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Ark/Orlok

I'm pretty sure that @Nohadon is voting to assassinate Fifth and praise Steel, and if so Fifth is tied for the lynch for second with lynch votes, with Snipexe in the lead with three(Fifth, Shqueeves, Ark). I'm sort of tempted to vote for Fifth; the jump from 'houses aren't important' to 'coinshots would overly favor particular houses' is noteworthy. I'm not sure what elim!Fifth would gain from convincing the thread that coinshots don't exist, though. 

I also don't like how @Shqueeves  'randomly' voted on someone who already had a vote. There were four such people at the time, so a random vote would have had a 4/21 chance of landing on one of them. Not implausible, but unlikely enough that if Furamirionind(the previous vote leader) is evil, there's a greater than proportional chance that Shqueeves is as well.

[MetaTerminal]

I’m not sure if Nohadon’s abstention is being counted or not.

We have yet to hear from a few people, so I’ll pokevote @xinoehp512. I’m also concerned about the Orlok praise, since we could be shooting ourselves in the foot, but it seems like they’ll get it anyway at this point. For now I’ll go with Fifth, who I think is a possible alternative.

xinoehp/Fifth

[Furamirionind]

Fura watched as Count Olaf paced up and down the square.  What was he doing here? Surely he wasn't a noble. To her, he looked much more like... Well... She didn't know. But he really should do something about his eyebrow and his unkempt hair. Just because it was balding, doesn't mean you don't need to take care of it.
Fura audibly whispered her thoughts in Snip Exeutor's ear. She hadn't meant for others to hear this as well, but as the entire court of nobles is used to eavesdropping on other conversations for gossip, that was something that tended to happen with her.  She was still trying to get used to that fact.  Having moved here only a few weeks ago, she still wasn't quite familiar with all the people and intrigue that was in the Elendel  court.

Then from behind her she heard, who's voice was that again? "Slaughter cannot be avoided, so the scholar's inclinations towards aggressive actions are necessary."
Fura whipped around and saw Sabine behind her, whispering something that she couldn't quite make out. Rust and Ruin, I need to talk like that in the future.
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I appreciate people pointing out I am a novice at these games, which is true, but my intention was to be purely ironic. I was condemning an action I was also taking. I found it amusing, but it appears no one else did : )

Fifth/Orlok

Edited November 2, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Aonar]

First off, thanks Steel, although you have way too much faith in my overall helpfulness.

Orlok/Orlok, for my amusement. Four-way ties are the best ties. 

 

Except I can't do that because Wyrm has preemptively ruined my fun with his rules.  So Orlok/Orlok, Orlok/Bard. Bard deserves some praise, I think. Orlok deserves the praise if the dice let him live, though. (No hard feelings if they don't though, right Orlok? )  Now, how many more votes and retractions can I put in this post to annoy Wyrm...

Also, why are people so concerned about Praise? It rings a little false to me, regardless of Orlok's skill as a player. It gives one player slightly more sway on the vote than the others. At this point in the game assuming some modicum of activity and cooperation between factions the benefit it confers is minimal at best. Get concerned later, when it has the power to actually meaningfully alter the balance of power. 

Of course, feel free to continue to accuse and voice concerns over it, don't let me stop you.  It's interesting to watch. 

[Steeldancer]

nohadon/aonar. I'm feeling pretty sick today, so that either means I'll have too much time to talk, or I'll end up sleeping through the rest of the cycle.

[CadCom]

Lynch:
Fifth (1) - Furamirionid
Furamirionid (2) - Joe, Orlok
Joe (1) - CadCom
Ark1002 (1) -  Snipexe
Snipexe (3) - Shqueeves, Fifth Scholar, Ark
Gancho Libre (1) - Young Bard
Itiah (1) - Gancho Libre
Jondesu (1) - Fifth Scholar
Orlok (2) - Araris, Aonar
Xino (1) - Meta T

Praise:
Orlok (5) - CadCom, Fifth Scholar, Ark, Snipexe
Araris (1) - Orlok
Jondesu (1) - Joe
Joe (1) - Shqueeves
CadCom (1) - Young Bard
Fifth Scholar (2) - Gancho Libre, Elandera, Meta T
Bard (1) - Aonar
------
We are at about 24 hours into the cycle, and the voting discussions seems to be very active, which is great! Here's my thoughts and analysis on some of the major things occurring so far.

 Snip Lynch(since he's currently in the lead): I disagree with the motives of the additional bandwagoning on him. A lynch must take place, but the first vote was by Fifth, as a poke vote, the second as a RNG, and the third with limited information. 

Praising Orlok: I don't have any issue with praising Orlok. Looking over the list of potential influential players, they all seem like they could be just as deceptive as elims. Except me. I am always village, and therefore would make a terrible elim.  More than anything, it seems like a valid way to begin getting information. 

The praise vote mechanic in general: If Elims get the praise vote handed to them, I imagine that they will try to keep that vote with them for longer. Thus, voting for other Elims with the praise vote, or convincing others to do so. (of course not that I've pointed it out, it becomes ikyk, like everything else that gets pointed out. But also Occam's Razor usually still applies) But once again, if the influential people don't die for multiple cycles, those people become more suspicious of being elims who are collaborating. It appears that currently, there is enough activity to overpower an active elim team, so we shouldn't have to worry about it if we're wrong. Thoughts anyone?

My Vote on Joe: 

17 hours ago, A Joe in the Bush said:

Sabine frowned at Miomunder's words. She had not agreed with the Lord of Tekiel had she? Silence had been his only addition to the conversation so far. Still, there were lovely women taking down all of the words spoken. "Stenographer, has the lord of Tekiel spoken yet?"

Silently, the woman handed her a sheet of paper, quoting the lords condemnation of Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, mere seconds before her own. Somehow she hadn't heard him.

...ehh fair enough. I can't argue with you if you claim to have been ninja'd Joe, And by consequence Orlok

Anyway, now my vote is back open. Which brings up a new discussion

The variety of votes cast so far: Indubitably, there is almost guaranteed to be at least one Elim in that mix of lynch votes. Which means, we can look for anyone who has vouched for anyone else, or tried defending anyone else. Though depending on the Elim's they may not even attempt to do that. There is both distancing and pocketing that can affect this.

In order of thread posts.

Fifth votes snip as a poke vote. NAI
Fura responds and votes Snip. 
Orlok responds to Fura and votes Fura
Joe also responds to Fura and votes Fura(Claims to not have seen Orlok's response yet.)
     These two votes could be a defense of Snip, and a counter wagon.
Fifth defends Fura
CadCom votes Joe, could be defense to Fura.
Araris agrees with fifth, therefore defends Fura's vote, but does not cast vote of his own
Orlok submits that Fifth, and CadCom could be suspicious
Young Bard distances from Fifth, claims neutrality to Fura(acknowledges defense, but is fine with lynch if it comes down to it)  And agrees with CadCom
ITIAH Sides with Fura
Elan disagrees with both lynches, Snip's and Fura's

23 minutes ago, Furamirionind said:

I appreciate people pointing out I am a novice at these games, which is true, but my intention was to be purely ironic. I was condemning an action I was also taking. I found it amusing, but it appears no one else did : )

I did see the irony in the post, but didn't bother to say anything. But it did give me a silent chuckle.

As an addendum. I cannot promise this much analysis in the future. I will try to do so as often as possible, but no guarantees. Hopefully others can take from this and build something. I don't want to make the same mistake that I made in the last game, where I waited too long to do analysis. 

Also, I've been ninja'd various times in the process of typing this post up between calls at work, so it may end up being very discombobulated, and no longer up to date. 

Edit: Just noticed that I never got around to placing a vote. I will make sure I do that soon.

Edited November 2, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder

[xinoehp512]

Hello, checking in. I will look over the thread so far and hopefully get a vote in before the end of the cycle.

[MetaTerminal]

I’ll hold my pokevote until you vote, if that’s alright (unless you know you won’t be able to).

-

Kalfaix smiled. “Ah. An audience. Yes, yes, pick a card. No, not that one! Not that one either. I suppose that one will do. Now, take a good long look at it, and memorise it.” He began cutting the deck to distract from the fact that he was predicting which card Severance held. Judging from the markings, it was a six of clubs.

“Now, put it back here. Excellent. And now I shall shuffle...” He pulled a Zarrow, carefully manipulating the card around the deck. Cut it to the bottom, then some overhands, and finally shuffle it up to the top. Kalfaix smiled gleefully.

“Would you agree that the deck has been shuffled thoroughly?” Not waiting for a reply, he pretended to summon the card in question to the top of the deck. Then, with excessive melodrama, he pulled it out, to reveal...

The three of hearts. Blast. “Not that one. Sorry.” He pulled up the next card, and the next, and the next, cards fluttering to the ground. The six was nowhere to be found. In despair he fanned the deck out, only to discover the six of clubs was no longer in the deck at all. How had that happened? In despair, he threw the deck over his shoulder. “The evil influences in this room have meddled with my powers!” Kalfaix announced. “Truly, this house is in a bad place. I need to go gather my prescient thoughts.”

In a huff, he went to kneel in the corner, adopting a meditative pose. He had learnt it from a man from Tathingdwelm and it had the double bonus of being very dramatic and extremely comfortable. It didn’t help with meditation at all, of course, but that was showbusiness for you. 

[CadCom]

Miumounder watched carefully as Kalfaix attempted -and failed- a simple card trick.  The real Kalfaix would not have been fooled by Severence concealing the card instead of placing it back in the deck. Miumounder thought.  Kalfaix was one of the best magicians within the elendel basin. That would not have slipped past him. Though perhaps he is just nervous or having an off day. Fortunately for me, It is not that simple for a faceless immortal to imitate me. I mark all of the shoes I make with a special marking, that is different for each shoe, but recognizable nonetheless. And I do it when no one is around to watch. On the back half of the brand patch that is stitched to the side is where my mark hides. It was a unique symbol, that many described as a swoosh, and others described as a check mark, with soft corners. 

Miumounder decided it was best to approach Kalfaix to test him again. "Kalfaix, It has been a while since I've heard word of you being in Elendel. Traveling to the roughs I presume? What brings you back to Elendel precisely at this time?, when the contest for the Heron Inheritance was only announced a week ago. Awefully coincedental if you ask me"

Miumounder was not known to engage in much small talk. He preferred to get straight to the point. 

[Fifth Scholar]

6 hours ago, Elandera said:

That's quite a large spread of votes. I'm definitely not a fan of giving Orlok praise so early. As has been stated, he's a dangerous elim. I want to vote on one of the other ones, but I'm finding myself stuck on the lynch. Neither Snipexe nor Furamirionid seem good candidates for the lynch, as the reason for Fura's seems to be general beginner tendencies, and Snipexe hasn't really done anything, much less something that would justify a lynch.

For now, I'll place my vote on Jondesu/Fifth Scholar. @Jondesu, because he hasn't posted yet.

Any reasoning as to why I was selected as a Praise target, out of curiousity? In regards to your point about Orlok, it is true that he is a dangerous player. However, he is also dangerous as a villager, and I believe that seeing what he does with the double vote next cycle will prove interesting. There are other reasons as well, most notably to garner others’ reactions to Orlok’s acquisition of power, which should help inform us on people’s alignments. Finally, while I do disagree with the Fura lynch (and the Snip lynch, now that he’s posted), I’m curious as to why you see Jondesu as a better target. Tagging complete inactives can often be more effective than a lynch vote—a vote can be placed later if the person doesn’t say enough/says something suspicious, but a vote on somebody who doesn’t see that vote, unless there is public consensus to lynch an inactive, is fairly useless. 

5 hours ago, Wyrmhero said:

Nope, you're right. I'm confused, someone asked me if there was a Tineye so they could send PMs, but PMs are Night only. I'll edit the above.

Guilty as charged, sorry. That’s what I get for assuming AG Rules were in effect for the main roles. 

4 hours ago, Ark1002 said:

 

My vote is on Snipexe/Orlok Tsubodai. I don't exactly have the msot accurate opinion, I've only been in two SE games, but that is my vote.

 

Ark, why are you voting for them? In particular, I find it off-putting that you copied my exact vote. If you are following my lead, an admission of such would be appreciated; if not, what are your own reasons for picking these players? 

3 hours ago, Snipexe said:

Doesn’t. You’re deciding the lynch based on a check in post. One in which I literally just said that I was going post later Ark this feels like an unexprienxe elim trying to screw over a villager.

Edit: For my praise vote, I’ll go ahead and support the Orlock also, @Fifth Scholar, you said you would change your vote after I posted... well here it is

I did indeed say that. Snipexe has checked in, and I suppose I retract from Orlok at the same time as well. However, I disagree with your views on Ark—while I hardly like his bandwagon, I do not see it as alignment indicative for him, at least not yet. That said, it has more backing than many of the current lynch choices, so I suppose it’s not an entirely bad thing.

1 hour ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I'm pretty sure that @Nohadon is voting to assassinate Fifth and praise Steel, and if so Fifth is tied for the lynch for second with lynch votes, with Snipexe in the lead with three(Fifth, Shqueeves, Ark). I'm sort of tempted to vote for Fifth; the jump from 'houses aren't important' to 'coinshots would overly favor particular houses' is noteworthy. I'm not sure what elim!Fifth would gain from convincing the thread that coinshots don't exist, though. 

Yes, it would appear Nohadon voted for me. I’m curious as to how you think that my post represents an inconsistency in my views. I believe that Houses should be a secondary objective; similarly, I see a Coinshot as being a potent tool in the hands of a person who puts their House first, and as such see a lower probability of any House having one, unless it is much smaller than the others. As such, my advice from before still stands: if players put their village status above their House status, issues like the Coinshot one I described above wouldn’t exist, even if Wyrm had given one to a House.

1 hour ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Also, why are people so concerned about Praise? It rings a little false to me, regardless of Orlok's skill as a player. It gives one player slightly more sway on the vote than the others. At this point in the game assuming some modicum of activity and cooperation between factions the benefit it confers is minimal at best. Get concerned later, when it has the power to actually meaningfully alter the balance of power. 

I am in full agreement with Aonar here, and would go further to say that the current focus on Praise is likely unhealthy. While it is a new mechanic, a public double-vote tomorrow that will likely get Soothed or Rioted somewhere is not as consequential as the death of one of the players. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

If Elims get the praise vote handed to them, I imagine that they will try to keep that vote with them for longer. Thus, voting for other Elims with the praise vote, or convincing others to do so. (of course not that I've pointed it out, it becomes ikyk, like everything else that gets pointed out. But also Occam's Razor usually still applies) But once again, if the influential people don't die for multiple cycles, those people become more suspicious of being elims who are collaborating. It appears that currently, there is enough activity to overpower an active elim team, so we shouldn't have to worry about it if we're wrong. Thoughts anyone?

Mmm...I don’t see the Elims as trying to do this, as I feel they would be more subtle. If the Praise vote begins obviously rotating command, we have cause to be suspicious that something like this is happening; not before then.

Since I’d rather not quote a bunch of people at once, I’d like to extend a general request to those voting mostly without reasoning provide at least some justification for where their vote now lies. For myself, Ark, as I’d like to get more reasoning as to why he backed my vote the way he did, and Orlok, to cement his near-certain status as Praised, and to carry out the experiment I want to try on a more experienced Praised player.

[+Ark1002]

Well, it was mostly a gut read for Snipexe, and your reasoning seemed sound for Orlok.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

Furamirionind, which was never meant to be a permanent vote. I have to apologise, but haven’t had nearly the time to properly look at the thread yet today. I’ll do so tomorrow morning, but in the meantime will vote on Cadmium, for no reason other than their analysis reading as contrived, and not feeling quite right.

For the benefit of Wyrm, and as I’m not a huge fan of empowering someone wishing me dead at this stage, Araris, Fifth Scholar.

[CadCom]

31 minutes ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

Furamirionind, which was never meant to be a permanent vote. I have to apologise, but haven’t had nearly the time to properly look at the thread yet today. I’ll do so tomorrow morning, but in the meantime will vote on Cadmium, for no reason other than their analysis reading as contrived, and not feeling quite right.

Good! In trying to mix up my playstyle, that way when I finally get to be Elim, people don't know what to expect! I was trying to make it sound contrived!

[Elandera]

4 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Any reasoning as to why I was selected as a Praise target, out of curiousity? In regards to your point about Orlok, it is true that he is a dangerous player. However, he is also dangerous as a villager, and I believe that seeing what he does with the double vote next cycle will prove interesting. There are other reasons as well, most notably to garner others’ reactions to Orlok’s acquisition of power, which should help inform us on people’s alignments. Finally, while I do disagree with the Fura lynch (and the Snip lynch, now that he’s posted), I’m curious as to why you see Jondesu as a better target. Tagging complete inactives can often be more effective than a lynch vote—a vote can be placed later if the person doesn’t say enough/says something suspicious, but a vote on somebody who doesn’t see that vote, unless there is public consensus to lynch an inactive, is fairly useless. 

My praise vote on you was largely because I believed you may have one of the better chances at gaining enough votes to overtake Orlok's number of votes at the time. You had been fairly actively participating, which I felt was a good thing and worth praising. You do bring up a good point about seeing what Orlok does with the double vote. I've been on the receiving end of his dangerous villager abilities, so it's quite possible he'd do some good for the village. However, I'd like to observe a bit first.

I use votes on people who haven't posted to give them a little added incentive to join once they do see the notification. It's why I tagged Jondesu while voting on him. I never intended to leave it.

For now, I'm going to retract all my votes (Jondesu/Fifth Scholar, just in case I don't have the time to get on again before rollover. I don't want to leave my lynch vote on Jondesu for fear of it actually ending with a lynch. I don't really have an opinion one way or another about any of the other lynch options at the moment. I have been admittedly busy today, and unable to keep up with most of the thread (but yay for it being active!).

[Wyrmhero]

16 hours ago, Aonar Faileas said:

Except I can't do that because Wyrm has preemptively ruined my fun with his rules.

...Are you surprised? I've known you for quite some time now

Also, my internet seems to be fixed now, but time will tell if it remains stable. Regardless of whether or not it does, the Day will still end at 7PM GMT, which is in 7 hours and 20 minutes from this post.

Something I wanted to say last night but wasn't able to is that I'd also like to remind any Smokers out there (if there are any ) that you may use your ability on the first Day as a free Action.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Wyrmhero

[Orlok Tsubodai]

13 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Good! In trying to mix up my playstyle, that way when I finally get to be Elim, people don't know what to expect! I was trying to make it sound contrived!

I think this justifies a Day One lynch as well as anything I've seen. Trying to sound contrived entails deliberately working against the village, who you ought to be helping, if you're a villager. Adding noise to obscure the signal we're trying to analyse is deeply counterproductive. 

Not only do I think that's suspicious in its own right, but I think it's behaviour we ought to set a precedent of punishing as a village. If we allow people to act counter-productively for Cadmium Compounder's stated purpose, we may as well cease analysis generally, as we'll never be able to tell whether someone is laying the ground for future games, or is actually evil. If we have to cease analysis, we should just hand the game to the eliminators.

As such, I'd strongly encourage everyone to vote for Cadmium this cycle.

[Jondesu]

Wow, sorry for my absence. I’m on mobile right now, so reading through the thread and voting will be tedious, but I’ll try to get on soon and fix that. Of note, I haven’t read my role pm yet so don’t read anything into my absence or this post.

[Fifth Scholar]

2 hours ago, Orlok Tsubodai said:

I think this justifies a Day One lynch as well as anything I've seen. Trying to sound contrived entails deliberately working against the village, who you ought to be helping, if you're a villager. Adding noise to obscure the signal we're trying to analyse is deeply counterproductive. 

Not only do I think that's suspicious in its own right, but I think it's behaviour we ought to set a precedent of punishing as a village. If we allow people to act counter-productively for Cadmium Compounder's stated purpose, we may as well cease analysis generally, as we'll never be able to tell whether someone is laying the ground for future games, or is actually evil. If we have to cease analysis, we should just hand the game to the eliminators.

As such, I'd strongly encourage everyone to vote for Cadmium this cycle.

This is actually a fair point. As Ark did provide his reasoning somewhat, I’ll retract from him (though I would like to hear more from him), and consider Orlok’s case on CadCom. Let me go over CadCom’s posts so far. 

Quote

Hey guys just checking in. Will do RP later. 

General check-in post, and as he actually did follow this up, NAI. 

Quote

Miumounder was a cobbler. He was the greatest cobbler he knew. In fact, his particular pair of shoes were his prized possession and also his prized project.  The outsole made of Pinewood, wrapped in hardened leather, The insole, also from leather, hand stitched to a soft cotton fabric. The sole was built to last. Then stitched to that was a flexible leather, dyed yellow from yellow marewill flowers, to wrap and protect the foot. Around the toes, an additional layer of leather, dyed by a red breed of marewill flowers was attached. The laces were removable, and interchangeable. Currently, his favorite laces were being worn. Black, made out of a new fabric, and extremely durable. 

These shoes helped Miumounder stand out. When he took them off, he was just CadCom, the boy from the streets of the 5th Octant. Thus, when Miumounder applied to join the contest for the Heron inheritance, he wore those shoes. He knew right from the beginning that would help him stand out. 

-------

Anyway. Thoughts on the game.

The praise vote actually has the potential to have bad consequences. If the influential person is not an elim, then they instead become a possible elim target. If they are elim, then it gives elims more power to sway the vote. On the contrary, it also gives us things to look for to spot elims, which means that they may not use that strategy, unless they believe the influential person may be threatening to the Elim team. 

That being said, when more consequences become visible, it gives the village more informtion, and therefore gives them a better chance of victory, I would hope. 

I disagree with the votes on Furamirionid, because I don't think he was trying to suggest that we should not have a D1 vote. While I agree that D1 lynches are good, and generate discussion. Instead, I will vote on Joe, who seemed rather willing to push that vote toward a bandwagon. 

I don't see any reason why Devotary would be a bad choice for the praise vote, as I doubt that the elims would knock off the influential N1, hoping to instead manipulate them, and the vote on Devotary seems to be due to their metagame, as everyone believes they are a good player.

RP, then a transition into discussion about the Praise votes. I can’t really decipher what he’s trying to say, as it’s rambling and uses a lot of words to say not that much. Soft-defense on Fura that also uses a lot of words, then a  vote on Joe. That vote isn’t terribly abnormal, and isn’t the worst reason to vote on him, but the vote for Devotary is odd, as she was neither mentioned nor posted when CadCom said this. As such, if CadCom flips Elim, Devotary is a good target to be Coinshot or lynched. 

Quote

... oops. You bring up a good point. I guess I confused Orlok and Devotary.... 

joe/Devotary

Joe/Orlok 

Steel calls him out on this, and CadCom acknowledges his mistake and changes his vote. His defense is interesting, however, as it seems fairly difficult to confuse a person who hasn’t posted with one who has. I suppose he couldn’t really have said anything else, though.

Quote

I thought PM's could only be sent at night. Is this correct? or was I confused?

CadCom did apparently read the rules, and a lot closer than I did  

Quote

[vote count]

1. We are at about 24 hours into the cycle, and the voting discussions seems to be very active, which is great! Here's my thoughts and analysis on some of the major things occurring so far.

 Snip Lynch(since he's currently in the lead): I disagree with the motives of the additional bandwagoning on him. A lynch must take place, but the first vote was by Fifth, as a poke vote, the second as a RNG, and the third with limited information. 

Praising Orlok: I don't have any issue with praising Orlok. Looking over the list of potential influential players, they all seem like they could be just as deceptive as elims. Except me. I am always village, and therefore would make a terrible elim.  More than anything, it seems like a valid way to begin getting information. 

2. The praise vote mechanic in general: If Elims get the praise vote handed to them, I imagine that they will try to keep that vote with them for longer. Thus, voting for other Elims with the praise vote, or convincing others to do so. (of course not that I've pointed it out, it becomes ikyk, like everything else that gets pointed out. But also Occam's Razor usually still applies) But once again, if the influential people don't die for multiple cycles, those people become more suspicious of being elims who are collaborating. It appears that currently, there is enough activity to overpower an active elim team, so we shouldn't have to worry about it if we're wrong. Thoughts anyone?

3. My Vote on Joe: 

[quotes Joe]

...ehh fair enough. I can't argue with you if you claim to have been ninja'd Joe, And by consequence Orlok

Anyway, now my vote is back open. Which brings up a new discussion

4. The variety of votes cast so far: Indubitably, there is almost guaranteed to be at least one Elim in that mix of lynch votes. Which means, we can look for anyone who has vouched for anyone else, or tried defending anyone else. Though depending on the Elim's they may not even attempt to do that. There is both distancing and pocketing that can affect this.

5. In order of thread posts.

[summarises posts]

6. As an addendum. I cannot promise this much analysis in the future. I will try to do so as often as possible, but no guarantees. Hopefully others can take from this and build something. I don't want to make the same mistake that I made in the last game, where I waited too long to do analysis. 

Also, I've been ninja'd various times in the process of typing this post up between calls at work, so it may end up being very discombobulated, and no longer up to date. 

Edit: Just noticed that I never got around to placing a vote. I will make sure I do that soon.

This is long, so I’m breaking it up into sections corresponding to the numbers I’ve added to CadCom’s post. 

1. First paragraph doesn’t say much, conveying vague villager-y sentiments in a vague villager-y excitable tone. In other words, I don’t trust that paragraph to be anything more than glorified fluff. 

His objections to the Snipexe lynch are fair, and I won’t fault him for that. With his section on praising Orlok, he again doesn’t really say much other than that he’s fine with it, and invokes a fairly pointless IKYK. Normally I wouldn’t go too far into any of this, but the apparent length of the post is deceptive, and fits into a broader pattern of CadCom using a lot of words to say not much. As such, a fairly heavy elim read. 

2. Cutting through the jargon, CadCom essentially seems to be saying that the Elims might try to rotate control of the Influential role, but that now they might not because it could be too obvious, if the Influential vote does seem like it’s rotating it might be suspicious, and that the village might have the numbers to out-vote the Elims anyway. Even though I agree with most of it, it seems both circular and unnecessarily wordy, and again isn’t saying that much. Slight elim read. 

3. Backs off Joe vote. Nothing much here that I see as AI, though others are free to analyse it. 

4. The only thing CadCom seems to be actually saying here is that there’s likely an Elim somewhere in the votes, a fairly safe bet when there’s nine people who have been voted on. 

5. No actual analysis here, just summary of what people have already said. 

6. The last three paragraphs don’t say much at all. I agree with Orlok that the “analysis” in CadCom’s post is not actually helping out the village, and the main purpose of it seems to be to allow CadCom to look as though he’s posting analysis, without him actually doing any. 

Final impressions on post: Mostly vague statements coated in fluff, uses a lot of words that don’t need to be used, and gives me a significant elim read. 

An RP post follows this one, which is good but not AI, so I’m leaving it out of my analysis.

Quote

Good! In trying to mix up my playstyle, that way when I finally get to be Elim, people don't know what to expect! I was trying to make it sound contrived!

My thoughts on this echo Orlok's; this is not a villager sentiment. I am ambivalent about Orlok’s vote because it sounds a bit like a policy lynch, which leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but in this case I believe that CadCom is a legitimate suspect for his fluff-posting in addition to this post above, which justifies the lynch for me. Cadmium Compounder, Orlok Tsubodai. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

21 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

My Vote on Joe: 

...ehh fair enough. I can't argue with you if you claim to have been ninja'd [Joe,] And by consequence [Orlok]

CadCom votes Joe, could be defense to Fura.

While Joe probably was ninja'd by Orlok's post, I would assume that when Joe went back to edit his post 38 minutes later, he noticed that Orlok had voted on Fura. More importantly, you are CadCom, and as such really should know why you voted on Joe. Was it a defense of Fura or not?

19 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I’m curious as to how you think that my post represents an inconsistency in my views. I believe that Houses should be a secondary objective; similarly, I see a Coinshot as being a potent tool in the hands of a person who puts their House first, and as such see a lower probability of any House having one, unless it is much smaller than the others. As such, my advice from before still stands: if players put their village status above their House status, issues like the Coinshot one I described above wouldn’t exist, even if Wyrm had given one to a House.

As no house can win if the Spiked do, I would consider a village Coinshot who made kills for the purpose of ensuring that the most praised player was from their house to be actively opposing their village win condition. As such, I don't anticipate having an issue with Coinshots exclusively targeting members of other houses.

Out of the four candidates currently tied for the lynch, I think Cadmium is the most suspicious. Compared to recent games, his posts, especially the more recent ones, seem to be based more on summarizing than analysing. In MR31 and QF34 he provided opinions on the suspicions of various players in addition to summarizing votes. In this game, he appears to be content to respond to the suspicions of others rather than making accusations of his own, which I know is something I do as an elim.

Edit: I also have to make a praise vote, so I shall put praise back on Orlok.

Edited November 3, 2018 by Devotary of Spontaneity
Added Praise Vote

[xinoehp512]

I can't say I like the vote on Cadcom for his post on mixing up his playstyle, as this just doesn't seem like something an elim would do, or at least, admit to. However, it doesn't seem like a villager sentiment, either, and his posts do feel suspicious to me. So I will vote Cadcom/Fifth Scholar for this cycle.

[Elandera]

A large man in a dark suit was waiting Avi outside her small apartment in the Fifth Octant as she returned from work.

"What are you doing here," she asked with no effort to be polite.

"Miss, your mother would like to meet with you this evening," he said with a slight bow. "Please, let me escort you to the carriage."

"Tell her I'm not interested in meeting Lord Heron." Avi pushed past the man to her door.

"Please, Lady Avi. Your mother insi-"

She slammed the door closed, cutting off his next words. Avi knew she should be so rude with the staff. It was just that her mother was so infuriating.

A small knock got her attention again, and she looked to see a note being slid under the door. It had the same overly-fancy lettering and seal as she'd received at work.

Quote

Dear Avi,

I do hope you stop ignoring our servants, and join me for evening tea. We have much to discuss regarding your future. I met a nice young man today who is around your age. Both not married in your 30s. Such a shame. I'm sure you could both benefit from meeting each other.

It's also about Lord Heron. He's your father's relative. I think we should visit him. Maybe we can provide him some comfort to ease his passing. It would mean so much to me if you came with us.

Please, just meet me for tea. I've told the servant to not leave your door until you agree to come home for the evening.

With love,
Sera Renault

------

CadCom/Fifth Scholar

I agree with the assessments on CadCom's posts so far. They seem counterproductive to the village cause, ending with more confusion that clarity. The praise vote is returning to Fifth Scholar because I believe he's been active and helpful to the village, both things worth praising.

Vote Count:

Lynch:
Snipexe (2) - Fifth Scholar, Shqueeves, Ark1002
Fifth Scholar (1?) - Furamirionind Nohadon (?)
Furamirionind (1) - Orlok, Joe
Joe - CadCom
Ark1002 (1) - Devotary, Snipexe, Fifth Scholar
Nohadon - Steeldancer
Gancho Libre (1) - Young Bard
Itiah (1) - Gancho Libre
Jondesu - Elandera
Orlok (2) - Araris, Aonar
Xinoehp (1) - MetaTerminal
CadCom (5) - Orlok, Fifth Scholar, Devotary, Xinoehp, Elandera

Praise:
Araris - Orlok
Orlok (4) - Fifth Scholar, Furamirionind, CadCom, Devotary, Ark1002, Snipexe
Jondesu (1) - Joe
Devotary - CadCom
Aonar - Steeldancer
Joe (1) - Shqueeves
Steeldancer (1?) - Nohadon (?)
CadCom (1) - Young Bard
Fifth Scholar (6) - Gancho Libre, Elandera, Araris, MetaTerminal, Orlok, Xinoehp
Young Bard (1) - Aonar

Edited November 3, 2018 by Elandera