Long Game 50: News of My Demise

[Gancho Libre]

Seriously ark? I go through all that work to lynch you, and you turn out to be a Noble?

Whoops. Well, for the record I didn't vote you that last cycle. So... yay?

[Jondesu]

Who are you, Leviathan? 

I really wish people didn’t change names during games.

[Furamirionind]

Leviathan should be Gancho I think? Same picture.

I don't know what to think about Ark being a Noble.  I think he acted rather like an elim... Though that was contingent on him being a thug... idk.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

1. xinoehp512 - Eviterces, a person of unknown quality. Why would they hide themselves like this?
2. Jondesu - Quintus, an old hat at situations like this. Makes you wonder how he lived through them to tell the tale...
3. Araris Valerian - Ookla the Curmudgeonly, an old man with a stern face. Perhaps evil is concealed within that stony visage.
4. Young Bard - Jendred, eighth son, and thus unimportant. You can probably ignore him.
5. Gancho Libre - George R.D. Mackleberry. Never trust a man with two middle initials.
6. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, named for a ruler of Fadrex City, beloved by all. This character is different in two regards.
7. Rathmaskal - Lord Flamingo, flamboyant and fond of hopping.
8. Coop772 - Burrsir, too cool for school.
9. Shqueeves - Ookla That Watches, definitely a Tineye.
10. Furamirionid - Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, Fura to his friends (if he has any).
11. Aonar Faileas - Tomir Izenry, only here for the money.
12. A Joe in the Bush - Sabine Seidel, of questionable sanity.
13. Nohadon - Severance Greed, greedy by name, greedy by repeated examples of taking more than his fair share throughout his life.

Looking back at the D3 lynch, and re-evaluating I'm increasingly unconvinced that Rathmaskal is actually evil. The confusion at the end of the cycle seems too natural, and the sort of thing that would have been resolved in the elim doc.

Of the players left, I have gut suspicions of Gancho Libre, Jondesu, and Furamirionid, who is in my doc, and who feels ever so slightly "off".

Another option is that Araris himself was trying to bus MetaTerminal from the beginning of the game, but I'm not terribly sure of how likely that is. 

@xinoehp512, @Young Bard, @Coop772, @Shqueeves, @Aonar Faileas, @A Joe in the Bush, @Nohadon, if any of you are around in the next hour, I'd be keen to see any of the three I listed above either scanned or coinshot.

I have an essay due on Tuesday, which is going to have to be my priority, but will see if I can do any further analysis on my train home this evening.

[Young Bard]

OK, I'm doing a quick reread back through the game to see if there's anything I missed, or that seems more or less suspicious now that we know the roles of a lot of the players. I haven't yet figured out how to quote across threads properly, unfortunately - if anyone could teach me the code to do that, I'd be very grateful - it would make things a lot easier the next time I do one of these. Since it's a night turn, I'm using red and green coloring to show the alignment of deceased players, and orange and blue for my predictions of players.

Day 1:

Some RP

Snip says he's busy, Fifth pokevotes him to remind him to post. Between dead players - nothing to be gained.

Fura votes on Fifth, saying it's "unfair to be voting on someone so soon after the game starts". They later put this down to their sense of humour - voting on someone early on the grounds that you shouldn't vote on someone early. I think this is NAI - they're a new player, and don't necessarily know the meta around here yet.

Orlok and Joe vote on Fura, pointing out that pokevotes are perfectly common. Fifth points out this behaviour is not uncommon for new players, something I agree with.

CadCom votes on Joe for bandwagonning. I see where this is coming from, but if Joe were an Eliminator, he'd probably be a lot more subtle about it than that, so I read Joe's vote as NAI, and possibly posting before he realised Orlok's post was there.

Orlok expressed mistrust of Fifth for pocketing for the first time - something that he'll push much more strongly for in Day 2, so I'll discuss what that says about Orlok (if anything) there.

More RP (I don't mean this to sound dismissive - I'm in a permanent state of wanting to do more RP - I'm just focusing on stuff that's potentially alignment indicative right now.)

Devotary suggests a plan to smoke influential players, then pokevotes Ark. The smoking plan is supported by 

Steel pokevotes Nohadon. Steel dies that Night. Almost certainly a coincidence - the Elim kills do seem random, but I'm aiming to be thorough, so worth noting.

Terminal posts. Supports a Day 1 lynch, doesn't vote on anyone. Advises caution on the Praise vote.

Shqueeves pokevotes Snipexe, apparently via RNG. (This is the second vote on Snip, who ends up dying.)

I express mild suspicion of Fifth, then pokevote Gancho.

Itiah supports Fura.

Gancho votes for Itiah - "I can offer no reason except my gut."

Elandara does a votecount, then pokevotes Jondesu.

Araris votes for Orlok. "I can't say that I have particularly good reasons for either, but it's D1, so that will have to be good enough." This is something that continues through to todays vote - it could be an elim trying to get rid of an analyser, but I see it more as a villager tunnelling.

Ark votes on Snip, not citing a pokevote, but not elaborating on any other reason either. "I don't exactly have the msot accurate opinion, I've only been in two SE games, but that is my vote."

Snip gets annoyed that he's going to be lynched via pokevote, votes on Ark for insufficient reasoning.

Meta votes for Xino. I think this is most likely a distancing vote, though that might be me projecting my prior suspicion of Xino. They then praise Fifth - a safe, NAI vote, since a number of villagers had done the same thing.

Aonar tries to engineer a tie as best he's able - is foiled in in tieing the Praise vote since he can't vote and praise the same person. Seems villagery (and Aonar-y) to me, but I haven't seen enough from Aonar to say. Points out that Praise, especially in the early game, probably isn't as important as people are making out, which also feels villagery.

OK, from now on, if one dead villager comments on another dead villager (and nothing else of interest), I'm not going to note that down, else I'll be here all day.

Orlok votes on CadCom, for their "analysis reading as contrived".

CadCom's response: "Good! In trying to mix up my playstyle, that way when I finally get to be Elim, people don't know what to expect! I was trying to make it sound contrived!" - This does not go down well, and the lynch is added to by Fifth, Devotary, Xinoehp, Elandara, and Terminal.

In self defence, CadCom votes on Snipexe, to no avail.

...OK, Chrome just crashed for me, and I lost a lot of work (I was most of the way through Day 2, and it only restored to what you see here, at the end of Day 1. As you can imagine, I am *really* annoyed right now, both at my laptop and myself for not backing up or doing this in an auto-saving Google Doc or something, but... never mind. Quickly, in response to Orlok - I agree with you about Jondesu and Gancho, however, Fura seems like a villager who's still trying to learn the meta to me. I also disagree about Rath, and probably will rewrite up that segment, at least - even if what happened at the end of Day 3 is ignored and written off, there is still a fair amount of other behaviour that makes Rath suspicious. In particular, what I was writing about shortly before it crashed was Rath making a post first saying that there was almost certainly an Eliminator in the bandwagon against CadCom Day 1 (something that mirrored what I said, however, my analysis was dependent on the next lynch candidate after CadCom, Snipexe, being an Eliminator. The Coinshot (presumably) had killed Snip the previous night, however, and revealed Snip to be a villager, and so there was no reason to expect that. On top of that, Rath leaves off Terminal in his analysis of who's most likely to be this Eliminator, which is highly suspicious (he cites Xino and Elandara as being the most suspicious) - he later tries to correct for this in a later post adding that Terminal's bandwagon could also be suspicious, which feels like him trying to walk back on his mistake.

Currently, the people I find most suspicious (roughly in order) are: Rath, Xino, Jondesu, Gancho, and Shqueeves.

Anyway, I'm not sure if any of this makes sense - I'll try and have my thoughts written down a bit more concisely and coherently (and focused more on those players I find suspicious and why) next cycle, I suppose.

[Wyrmhero]

Morning Edition 6

 

The Elendel Daily

Newsworthy Content for Every Octant!

The 28th of Doxil, 68, Morning

Price 2 Clips

 

Praise Given to Quick Response by Constables

In what seems like almost the new 'normal', last night there was yet another attack on a citizen of Elendel. A young man by the name of Burrsir was attacked on his way home from the university. No-one was able to describe the altercation, but whether through chance, help or Burrsir defending himself, the cut was not immediately life-threatening, and the hospital is reporting his recovery and have announced that he will be free to go about his business by time of print. During the events, Burrsir was struck on the head and, due to this injury, cannot recall if any came to his aid, or the identity of his attacker.

The Constabulary were at the location of the attack within minutes of the event, thanks to a concerned citizen, who was able to use their Steelpushing capabilities to quickly report the crime to a constable on the street. Upon arrival, first-aiders were able to patch Burrsir up well enough until he could receive further treatment at The Terris Mother Hospital. After being seen by medical professionals, constables questioned him about the attack, but were unable to discover any information immediately pertinent to their investigation. They have requested that any individuals around The Dibbling Cafe in the late evening on 27th Doxil make themselves known to investigators for questioning.

Governor Wilson has praised Constables for their speedy response time, and has promised further funding will be made available to the Constabulary to hire Mistings, in particular Tineyes and Coinshots, as a means of raising alarms and alerting them to crimes in progress. This will be run on a trial basis within the 1st Octant, but will hopefully be extended through the whole city. Councillors have questioned where funding will be found for this initiative, as most Mistings are in the employ or members of the various noble families. It has been questioned whether public funding can compete with the amounts that Mistings can earn in the private sector, and whether this is a good use of the City's resources. The Governor responded that public safety was paramount, and that the money for this policy would be taken from the greater Constabulary budget, and that this was simply allowing the Constabulary to hire according to their needs.

When asked whether this would mean that there would be less Constables on the street, the Governor declined to comment.

Krea Erikeller

 

Commercial Advertisements

Spoiler

The Dibbling Cafe

Eggs yellow enough to see in the dark with.

Bacon crisp enough you could snap it.

Coffee dark enough to make you knurd.

Simple, cheap and cheerful home-made* food served with a smile.

*The Dibbling Cafe is classed as home under Planning Permission Article 5232b.

 

A Rebuttal

We at House Hasting have been very disappointed with House Izenry and their libeling of our invention.

They are simply stuck in the past; we look to the future.

They are scared of falling behind, but also too cowardly to forge a new path.

We are no longer interested in responding to their claims in this paper.

We look forward to working with Elendel and other cities in forging new and stronger transportation links.

 

Personal Advertisements

Spoiler

I am in contact with the Seeker. Rath is a Spiked Rioter. Lynch him.

 

Previous Editions

Spoiler

16th Doxil 68, Morning (Signups)

23rd Doxil 68, Morning

23rd Doxil, 68, Evening

24th Doxil, 68, Morning

24th Doxil, 68, Evening

25th Doxil, 68, Morning

25th Doxil, 68, Evening

26th Doxil, 68, Morning

26th Doxil, 68, Evening

27th Doxil, 68, Morning

27th Doxil, 68, Evening

 

Other Headlines This Evening 

Spoiler

Imperial News – Assaulted Individual 'Cannot Remember' Attacker

The Daily Council - Constabulary Praised For Quick Response, Governor Announces Funding for Coinshots

The Hazekiller – Streets Not Safe For Young Students, Cry Brothers

The Financial Broadsheet – House Heron Stock Drops With Continuing Situation

The Copper Star – Can Dolls Move When No-One Looks?

 

Burrsir/Coop772 was attacked during the Night, but survived!

Day 6 has begun! It will end at 7PM GMT on Tuesday 20th November.

Ookla the Curmudgeonly/Araris Valerian is Influential this Turn.

 

Player List

Spoiler

1. xinoehp512 - Eviterces, a person of unknown quality. Why would they hide themselves like this?
2. I think I am here. - Itiah XII. What happened to the other eleven? Rioter
3. Fifth Scholar - Count Olaf, an old vassal that once was under the influence of Ruin. Ruin is gone, but what's to stop him falling under evil influence again? Noble
4. Jondesu - Quintus, an old hat at situations like this. Makes you wonder how he lived through them to tell the tale...
5. Elandera - Avi, a person who has no idea what an Ookla Season is. Is that the truth, or are they perhaps lying? Thug
6. Araris Valerian - Ookla the Curmudgeonly, an old man with a stern face. Perhaps evil is concealed within that stony visage.
7. Cadmium Compounder - Miumounder, also known as CadCom. Why would someone need two names? Soother
8. Young Bard - Jendred, eighth son, and thus unimportant. You can probably ignore him.
9. Gancho Libre - George R.D. Mackleberry. Never trust a man with two middle initials.
10. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, named for a ruler of Fadrex City, beloved by all. This character is different in two regards.
11. Steeldancer - Ookla of Squids. (This is getting out of hand, now there are two of them) Lurcher
12. Rathmaskal - Lord Flamingo, flamboyant and fond of hopping.
13. Snipexe - Snip Exeutor, has stopped working. Noble
14. Coop772 - Burrsir, too cool for school.
15. Shqueeves - Ookla That Watches, definitely a Tineye.
16. Furamirionid - Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, Fura to his friends (if he has any).
17. Aonar Faileas - Tomir Izenry, only here for the money.
18. A Joe in the Bush - Sabine Seidel, of questionable sanity.
19. Ark1002 - Aniah Arkwood, from the roughs. Sticks out like a sore thumb in these fancy settings. Noble
20. Nohadon - Severance Greed, greedy by name, greedy by repeated examples of taking more than his fair share throughout his life.
21. MetaTerminal - The Immortal Kalfaix, a travelling magician. You can't trust these out-of-towners... Spiked
22. Devotary of Spontaneity - Tessona, a Sliverist, but assuredly maybe probably not one of the bad guys. Noble

Edited November 19, 2018 by Wyrmhero

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I think in light of the tineye advertisement, it's imperative that the tineye who posted it claims.

@xinoehp512, @Jondesu, @Araris Valerian, @Young Bard, @Callsign: Leviathan, @Rathmaskal, @Coop772, @Shqueeves, @Furamirionind, @Aonar Faileas, @A Joe in the Bush, @Nohadon.

[Rathmaskal]

Well folks, I'm going to keep on my Xino vote.  If you need further explanation for that, please let me know.

I still like the Araris praise for now, although we'll see how that works out this cycle to see if that vote stays where it is.

Other than that, I'm actually starting to get a weird vibe from both Young Bard and Gancho.  I'm not sure if it's just the fact that they're voting on me or whether it's other things...  But a couple of reasons.

Young Bard:

• In one post I was actually able to reply to, there was at least one blatantly false statement (mentioned Orlok as having been onto Meta since D1) that was used this as a reason to clear Orlok.
• As I type this out, that's really the main thing I'm seeing...not a ton to go off

Gancho

• Quote

  I'm going to vote Rath. Self preservation vote? The village should be about the community...

  This one should be fairly self-explanatory.  But basically, yes, the village is about the community.  And if enough people find someone suspicious enough to lynch, and I can't stop it, it's better for the village that that happen instead of me getting killed.

• Quote

  Seriously ark? I go through all that work to lynch you, and you turn out to be a Noble?

  Whoops. Well, for the record I didn't vote you that last cycle. So... yay?

  This one reads really clunky as an elim trying to show a village lean.]

*Orlok ninja here*

So, definitely not much to go on here for Young Bard, but Gancho is giving some serious elim vibes for me after those last two posts (especially the latter).

 

Edit:

OK, so apparently I'm becoming a target for the elims.  (I hadn't gotten a chance to read that yet when I made my first post) Good deal.  The nice thing is that even if I do get mislynched, then everyone can know not to trust the tineye.  I'm curious what I've said that's causing me to become a target though.

So, just as a bit of a commentary on how that is at least less likely: look at every situation where I've been voted on.  I'd assume the 'rioter' comment is designed to be a commentary on the fact that votes have disappeared from my count every time I've been voted on.  If I was a rioter, those votes would have appeared elsewhere.  And no, this can't be just a misinterpretation of the rules, because if it was due to the seeker contacting them, they'd have the correct role.  So, we basically have two likely possibilities:

• I'm elim, but not a rioter
• I'm not elim

Take it either way you want, but that statement is false.

Edited November 18, 2018 by Rathmaskal
Trying to avoid double posting...

[Furamirionind]

I have an essay due Monday night which will be taking up most of my time this cycle.

Rathmaskal, I think based on voting knowledge, it would be rather strange for someone to call you a Rioter, as, if anything, you are probably a Soother. (Though that could have been someone else trying to make you appear to be a Soother, which would be strange...)

Honestly, I don't think this necessarily clears Rathmaskal, but I think he isn't the priority.

There are four possibilities for the Tineye statement:
 1. Tineye - Village | Rath - Village -- I suppose this is possible... The Tineye would not be in contact with the Seeker.  This post would be purely because they suspect Rath so much that they are willing to lie about Rath to try and get him lynched.  I doubt the Tineye would claim, as if people know they lied, they would probably be lynched.  This would also mean the tineye messed up, claiming Rath to be a Rioter.  They should have said Soother.
 2. Tineye - Village | Rath - Spiked -- In this scenario, there are two possibilities:
          A. The Tineye may actually be in-contact with the Seeker, however if this is true, the Tineye should claim ASAP.
          B. The same as possibility 1, and the Tineye is actually correct.
 3. Tineye - Spiked | Rath - Village -- This one is pretty obvious.  The spiked are trying to lynch Rath. Here, it is strange that they would say Rath is a Rioter.  Perhaps they are trying to throw us off? i don't know.
 4. Tineye - Spiked | Rath - Spiked -- This isn't as obvious, but a possibility is that the Tineye posted this, and intentionally messed up their information to either clear Rath, or to imply there is a spiked Tineye.  This would probably be to try to get Orlok lynched, as he seems to be a Tineye.

I am running out of time, so I am going to move on to Orlok's suspicion of me.
Orlok, you said your suspicion on me is because I, "feel ever so slightly "off"." This I find weird, as you don't even know me. I changed my play-style multiple times in LG49, and even then, 49 was so different I would hesitate to use knowledge from that game here.  In my case, as that has been my only LG so far, info on my playstyle perhaps would need to come from there, but I don't think it would get you accurate info.  I am not trying to say that impressions you get from my language is irrelevant, however, I would appreciate if you take you conclusions with a grain of salt.  If you have any reasons to believe I am suspicious other than your gut, I will address those as soon as I get a chance.

You have 2 choices.  You can trust me or lynch me.  If you lynch me, at least you will know I have not been lying to you.  Your choice.

My only fear is that we have 13 players left in the game. Four of which seem to be completely inactive (Joe, Nohadan, Aonar, Shqueeves).  So we have 9 active and semi-active players left in the game. One elim has died, so we probably have 2-4 left. If we assume the worst, 4 left, all of which active, then a single mislynch could cost us the game at this point.  That is of course assuming the worst, so we may have 1-2 mis-lynches left before we lose.

I am out of time.  I won't have any more analysis time 

 

Edit: As far as possibilities, I think my 3rd one is the most likely.

Edited November 19, 2018 by Furamirionind

[Araris Valerian]

I've made no Tineye posts.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

I was hoping the Tineye would claim, as I think it would guarantee us an eliminator. I've suspected an eliminator tineye for a while - the first message left by the other Tineye at the end of N1 felt contrived - almost like they planned to use the tineye claim at a later point in the game.

Given the content of the message, I've done a ctrl-f search of the thread, and have found that only the following living players have used the term "Spiked":

Young Bard
Furamirionind
Callsign: Leviathan/Gancho Libre
Jondesu

Interestingly, this overlaps to a not-inconsiderable degree with my suspicions.

Regarding Furamironind, who has used the term "Spiked" overwhelmingly more often than any other player, I remain in two minds. Much of what they've done in my doc is explainable by being a new player, but there are appeals for advice that ring ever so slightly off. Last cycle, they raised that they thought there might be an eliminator tineye, which I need to think much further on - in light of today's tineye post, it seems strange timing.

If our scanner is at all active, I think at this point in the game it might well be worth their claiming. They ought to have five scan results in by now, and assuming even three of those remain alive, being able to clear potentially a further four people (themselves included) would take this from a three known with c. three eliminators in ten remaining game, to a three eliminators in what is possibly as few as six remaining game.

Apologies if my thoughts are a little incoherent. It's 3am, and I'm in the middle of an essay in the library.

[Nohadon]

I’ll try to elaborate when I’m not on mobile but I’m sorry for being inactive. I have some GCSE coursework that’s demanding all my time. Since I’m so inactive I may as well tell you that I’m a coinshot. 

[Shqueeves]

Sorry for being dead, I had to run a baby shower for my sis, which started an irl sidequest, but that's all taken care of. I'm going to read what I missed and give some opinion. I shall return within the next few hours 

EDIT:

So a few hours have past, and I need sleep so I'll make this brief. The past messages in the "Personal Advertisements" have been on the flowery side, while this one is very to the point. This may be my addled state, but I'm inclined to believe that either we have several tineyes sending us messages, this pointing at Rath was last minute, or this might be our fist tineye message and the previous stuff was Wyrm messing with us. I'm going to sleep on it, I'll get back to y'all when I'm more awake

Edited November 19, 2018 by Shqueeves

[Furamirionind]

Though that is quite interesting that the people using the term "spiked" matches Orlok's suspicions, this obviously isn't alignment indicative.  If fact, I don't think this term would mean anything relevant to the discussion at all.  The reason I think this is:

[Player name]: [Uses of term in-game]/[uses of term in-rp]

Fifth: 0/1
Devotary: 3/2
Meta: 0/1
Young Bard: 1/0
Fura: 16/0 (including day 6)
Gancho: 1/0
Ark: 1/0
Jondesu: 1/0

8 people in this game have used this turn.  The only people standing out with how they use the term are myself and Devotary.  Devotary I think is extra significant as all of their uses of the term happened in cycle 1.

My last point is that Wyrm has used this term 13 times for discussing rules, and 7 times for RP.  What is my point with that? It is the official term used for the elims this game.  That is why I have been using it, which should explain why I used it so much.  In the absence of actually RPing, it feels much more like I am in character if I use the world terminology.  It is something I find fun.  If you are to look through every PM, doc post, and in-thread post I have done, you should notice I have slowly been shifting from using the term "spiked" to using elim when talking about the group of spiked/elims in general.  I have been doing this (at least in my head) to try and use the same terminology as the rest of the players in this game, as that will make rereading, and finding things in-thread much easier.

I didn't mean to write this much on this, but if I am lynched for no better reason than I used the term "spiked"... A lot... I will be pretty frustrated.

As for my questions, I looked through each question I asked in-doc: (put in a spoiler for length)

Spoiler

 1. This was a joke and reference to the interactions Steel and I had early on in 49.
 2. Steel and Devotary were teasing me, which I didn't realize.  I asked if they were being sarcastic. (I was on 6 hours of sleep over 3 days, at the time)
 3. Asked a question about Steel "claiming" something in another game.  Again, on no sleep.
 4. Asked a question about TLR, not realizing Devotary was role-playing... again... No sleep
I slept then. : )
 5. Orlok asked if our doc wanted to focus on the group wincon, or the house/personal one.  So my question was to Wyrm as to the difference between them.  This was a question of a new player. As I thought perhaps the group wincon didn't result in a "full" win. I blame this line of thinking on my first LG being such a complicated one.  (this was answered by Wyrm)
 6. Next question was a joke... signified by how... Umm... Someone crossed it out. I don't think I did...
 7. No one was posting in the doc, so I RPed in there.  I had a question mark in the RP, so I am including it in this list.
 8. Another couple days past with no one else posting in-doc.  So I asked how you all were doing.
 9. Orlok asked me to role call to the doc.  I responded by asking Orlok to explain why the benefit of me role-calling to you would outweigh the risks of doing so before I had any reason to trust anyone in that doc. (before Meta flipped elim)
10. I posed the possibility that we could have a doc without a(n) spiked elim. Continent on Meta flipping elim. (again, only including this because it had a question mark in it (to provoke a response), it wasn't really a question)
11. I asked why people in my doc trust Araris.  I had decided to trust the people in there, however, didn't think what I saw from Araris warranted as much trust as everyone else thought. (This was after Meta flipped elim) (answered by Steel)
12. I also backhandedly asked if they were going to tell my role to Araris.
13. I read a vote-count, and thought it was incorrect.  I posed this as a question.  Upon re-looking at this, it appears I misread the vote-count. (Responded to by Wyrm)
14. I asked if it was normal to have so many inactive players. I was concerned that in the worst case scenario, with so many inactive players, we were 1-2 mislynches before losing. (Responded to by Wyrm)
15. I asked Orlok if he knew what turn Steel role-called to Araris.  I asked this because I was trying to put a bit of pressure on Araris in PMs. (I don't think it worked... : )   ). Araris has more reason than most to trust him, but that doesn't mean I trust him 100%.
16. Orlok accused me of either being the Tineye, being in contact with the Tineye, being a seeker, being in contact with a seeker, or being a(n) spiked elim.  I asked a series of questions to try and clarify what he was accusing me of.  I still don't know, though I think I was being accuse of being an elim Tineye.

I asked 16 questions total. Exactly 8 were game related.  If any of you are concerned with how many questions I asked for no other reason than because the doc was silent, feel free to look through the docs of LG49 (Women, Unused Guest Room, Secret Societies, & Art Gallery), where I did the exact same thing.  I like discussion.  As for the game related questions, 5, 9, and 16 were questions because I was confused as to something someone else said. 10 wasn't a question, but a statement in question form. 11, 12 was to figure out if I should trust Araris at that point in the game. 14, 15 I explained well enough already. 

Edited November 19, 2018 by Furamirionind
Added which questions got answered.

[Gancho Libre]

Sorry guys. I saw some confusion on the Night Cycle. I'm Gancho. Sorry for the name change

[Araris Valerian]

Okay, so I don't think this is a LyLo at all. Orlok brings up a good point about the Tineye's alignment. If the Tineye was village then it would be worth it for them to reveal if it got us an elim kill. If they were an elim, revealing would only make sense if it were LyLo, and the presence of a village Coinshot (Nohadon), makes it impossible for something like that to be useful. This thing could be sort of a fake bus, also. Where both Rath and the Tineye are elim. But in that case, it would also seem to make sense that the Tineye would reveal themselves.

@Orlok Tsubodai I wouldn't count on us having a Seeker. As for the use of the word "Spiked", I'm pretty sure a seeker scan of an elim would give the result "Spiked". So if the Tineye is village then they are just relaying what they were told, and if they are elim then they are saying what shows up in their own role PMs. It is also possible that the elims have a seeker, but since Rath denies being a Rioter I can't really say more.

Coop is probably going to die during the next Night, since he is inactive. The attack strong/soft clears him, since he isn't active enough to warrant a WGG this late in the game.

1. xinoehp512 - Eviterces, a person of unknown quality. Why would they hide themselves like this?
2. Jondesu - Quintus, an old hat at situations like this. Makes you wonder how he lived through them to tell the tale...
3. Araris Valerian - Ookla the Curmudgeonly, an old man with a stern face. Perhaps evil is concealed within that stony visage.
4. Young Bard - Jendred, eighth son, and thus unimportant. You can probably ignore him.
5. Gancho Libre - George R.D. Mackleberry. Never trust a man with two middle initials.
6. Orlok Tsubodai - Locke Tekiel, named for a ruler of Fadrex City, beloved by all. This character is different in two regards.
7. Rathmaskal - Lord Flamingo, flamboyant and fond of hopping.
8. Coop772 - Burrsir, too cool for school.
9. Shqueeves - Ookla That Watches, definitely a Tineye.
10. Furamirionid - Furamirionid Yuln'Broael, Fura to his friends (if he has any).
11. Aonar Faileas - Tomir Izenry, only here for the money.
12. A Joe in the Bush - Sabine Seidel, of questionable sanity.
13. Nohadon - Severance Greed, greedy by name, greedy by repeated examples of taking more than his fair share throughout his life.

I've bolded the players I don't plan on voting for this cycle because of things they have done or that happened to them, and italicized the inactives, who I also don't plan on voting for because it wouldn't give up much information. @Nohadon, you should coinshot the italicized folks, if you are active enough to post in thread. That leaves 4 players, Jondesu, Bard, Gancho, and Fura. Interestingly, in his post last cycle, Bard puts suspicion on Jondesu and Gancho. Orlok is susicious of all of them except Bard.

I'm sort of concerned that most of the elims are hiding through inactivity though. I gave people a perfectly good reason to lynch Orlok last cycle, and if he really is village, it seems like something the elim team could have jumped on pretty easily. That makes me want to read Jondesu and Bard as more village. Maybe I'm wrong, and Orlok could definitely still be an elim, but that's what I'll go with at least for this cycle. I think I'll vote on Gancho/Orlok, the latter for being an excellent villager or elim, whichever team he is on.

[Rathmaskal]

I agree with Araris that this is unlikely to be a LyLo situation yet with 13 people remaining still...however, that requires us to have a few more active people eventually.  However, we are likely getting close to that point without a lucky coinshot kill.  If you assume 4 elims remaining, we could potentially have 2 more mislynches before LyLo... Hopefully we don't get to that point though!  (ignoring vote manipulation, of which there's mostly been one soother active for so far, with a soother and a rioter dead already)

The main reason I'm posting this, though, is that I want to note that I still feel strongly about Xino being elim, but I am will support a Gancho lynch if my Xino lynch doesn't come through.

Right now, in order, I would say my suspicion list is:

1. Xino
2. Gancho
3. Young Bard
4. Not sure...  Orlok has provided a couple inconsistencies in thread, but has provided a lot more village and a lot of other people have mentioned Jondesu as suspicious (I'll have to look back on this as I haven't really read anything as that suspicious)

My feelings on the top two are strong enough to warrant me supporting a lynch this cycle.

I should note that one thing I'm finding kind of interesting is that after Meta was killed, it seemed like a couple people kind of returned to the thread (this is kind of unfounded right now as I haven't actually looked back to verify...I'll make sure to do so later, so I apologize for the vagueness of this current comment, I should have time in a few hours to actually go through the thread again).  I could definitely see an elim strategy where you have one person heavily involved in conversation at a time.

[Araris Valerian]

Actually, maybe we should kill @Shqueeves, since he is lurking but not helping solve the game. Thoughts?

[Orlok Tsubodai]

This cycle I propose we lynch Gancho Libre/Callsign: Leviathan. I'll praise Araris again.

I haven't yet had time to look at Xinoehp, which I'll aim to do tomorrow.

[Gancho Libre]

I'm interested to know why you think that.

[Rathmaskal]

17 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Actually, maybe we should kill @Shqueeves, since he is lurking but not helping solve the game. Thoughts?

I'm not sure I agree with anything like that at this point.  If we lynch someone like Shqueeves, I don't think we get any additional information about anyone...and it's slightly better than a coin flip at best.  I realize this sounds mildly hypocritical due to my focus on Xino...but Xino has voted and has been consistent with the "Oh, I'm here but I just can't vote right now" posts since then.

Current vote count:

Lynch

• Gancho (3) - Araris (x2), Orlok
• Xino (1) - Rath

Praise

• Orlok (2) - Araris (x2)
• Araris (2) - Rath, Orlok

So...not a lot of voting going on...only 2 hours until rollover.  Let's see some more votes!

[Araris Valerian]

I mean, we have a fair amount of information already at this point. If we only lynch active players, and there are elims that are sending in kill orders but not posting, then we will lose. Shqueeves was watching the thread but never posted, which means that he is active enough to be sending in kill orders, but hasn't been working toward winning the game for villagers. I really was hoping to get him to post, which was the motivation behind the mention and the lynch threat, but it didn't pan out. I think Gancho is better for now, but Nohadon could take out Shqueeves.

[Orlok Tsubodai]

@Rathmaskal, could you switch to voting on Gancho? At the moment, if someone soothed Araris there would be no lynch.

[Rathmaskal]

Yes, I was planning on it as I mentioned previously.  Just wanted to see if there were sufficient votes to warrant something else.

Xino/Araris

Gancho/Orlok

[Gancho Libre]

Uh... to repeat my question? What did I ever do?