A Joe in the Bush

Mid-Range Game 31: Spiritual Warfare

434 posts in this topic

Oh my goodness, that write-up was hilariously amazing @Domi in the Dark.

At this point, I feel like we should reveal who is in our remaining factions, so we can try and sort out all the Independents. It seems likely that there is at least one spirit in each faction, so it would do more good than harm now.

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1 minute ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Oh my goodness, that write-up was hilariously amazing @Domi in the Dark.

 

Much obliged, good to know my writing shines even through a lack of ideas etc :P 

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I know all the individual Independents, Crimsn, but I generally believe that narrowing down the list of possible Shaors is very much not worth outing them, and am curious as to why you are advocating for it. 

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Alright, listen up!

This cycle, I scanned the Wildmen. I’m Dashe, in case you forgot. Joe clarified, my scan happens before deaths and after conversions.

Anyway, it said that there are 7 Non-Converts in the Wildmen.

Counting Mail, there are 8 people in the doc. Since Mail wasn’t a spirit, that means we (Wildmen) have a traitor in our midst.

I’ve mentioned in the doc how Crimsn Wolf seems to be in good standing with a lot of the players, and so would be a good conversion target.

I’ve also mentioned how the traitor doesn’t have to be a recently converted, so maybe it’s CadCom.

It could be Fifth, since he’s also highly trusted.

It could be me, but as I’ve said before (in my doc), I’m not. I really don’t know how to prove I’m not, but I’m not.

So, yeah, just your daily Dashe news. I don’t really know who to vote for yet, I think I’ll analyse some more posts this cycle, but so far my money’s on Crimsn Wolf, because of her post this cycle.

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2 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I know all the individual Independents, Crimsn, but I generally believe that narrowing down the list of possible Shaors is very much not worth outing them, and am curious as to why you are advocating for it. 

Considering [now confirmed by @I think I am here.'s scan] that there is a Spirit in the Wildmen, they already know the list of possible Shaor's. I still think it could be CadCom, as I have held suspicions of them since the beginning, but I will hold off on voting for now. I didn't realize you knew who all the Independents were, but as far as I know, you are the only person that has that information. While it is good to keep information hidden from the elim team, we're at a point where they likely know more than we do, so collaborating as best we can would be to our benefit.

The reason I was making the suggestion is because, at this point in the game, it seemed unlikely that the Spirits don't know who everyone's faction is. I'm not really sure how else to defend myself, so I will leave it at that for now. I somehow managed to stay awake until 5 33 in the morning again, so I kinda wanna sleep. :P I'll pop on later today, once I awaken.

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I have a lot of thoughts.

First of all, thank you Itiah, and in that case Crimsn is correct that revealing the Independents is not going to be narrowing the list of Shaors. Independents include myself, Devotary, Droughtbringer, Walin, Bard, and MetaTerminal. There may be a Wildman Independent yet unknown (in which case I would appreciate being contacted by them), but if that Independent exists they are likely cleared, as I can’t imagine there being a Spirit Independent Wildman—that seems like too many roles to have at once, if only for balance’s sake. 

Regarding who to clear, Itiah’s scan is revealing. The fact that the Wildmen have a traitor means that if we are holding to the theory that Galladon began as an Independent, the Barons are likely clear—the people in that gang are myself, and three less-active players that were potentially less appealing targets for conversion. It also means that the Spirits have converted twice, and are potentially out of conversions. Don’t count on this, though, and Shaor should still stay as hidden as possible, and Bodyguards should continue to use their abilities to prevent her death. 

The main question to me seems to be if the Spirits tried to convert Itiah or a potential Shaor last cycle. Given that Itiah confessed that there was a traitor in his faction, instead of expediently stating that it was clear (which is the smarter move for a converted!Dashe, IMO), and because the Spirits have shown a record of prioritising gang leaders over Dashe for conversions (see: Elandera converted last cycle instead of Itiah), I’m leaning towards Itiah being innocent. However, we still don’t know, and as cruel as it sounds I would advocate killing Itiah or lynching him to confirm his results. I’d rather kill him, if only to foster good lynch discussion this cycle. (If it were up to me I wouldn’t kill him at all, but unconfirmed scan results in a conversion game=bad.)

Out of all available options, I like a Bard lynch, closely followed by a Drought lynch. I will explain my reasoning in a subsequent post. 

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Is it a bad thing that we’re in turn 5 and I literally have no idea how 4 people got attacked last night?????

Anyway, that explains how coop could be a baron and an independent. Now I have to find a new suspicion. Blech. 

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4 hours ago, Crimsn-Wolf said:

Considering [now confirmed by @I think I am here.'s scan] that there is a Spirit in the Wildmen, they already know the list of possible Shaor's. I still think it could be CadCom, as I have held suspicions of them since the beginning, but I will hold off on voting for now. I didn't realize you knew who all the Independents were, but as far as I know, you are the only person that has that information. While it is good to keep information hidden from the elim team, we're at a point where they likely know more than we do, so collaborating as best we can would be to our benefit.

The reason I was making the suggestion is because, at this point in the game, it seemed unlikely that the Spirits don't know who everyone's faction is. I'm not really sure how else to defend myself, so I will leave it at that for now. I somehow managed to stay awake until 5 33 in the morning again, so I kinda wanna sleep. :P I'll pop on later today, once I awaken.

Huh, good point. Should we also reveal a list of the Baron faction members?

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Mailliw's Hoed Mantra:

Quote

Ow my throat burns, wolf

 

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6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The main question to me seems to be if the Spirits tried to convert Itiah or a potential Shaor last cycle. Given that Itiah confessed that there was a traitor in his faction, instead of expediently stating that it was clear (which is the smarter move for a converted!Dashe, IMO), and because the Spirits have shown a record of prioritising gang leaders over Dashe for conversions (see: Elandera converted last cycle instead of Itiah), I’m leaning towards Itiah being innocent. However, we still don’t know, and as cruel as it sounds I would advocate killing Itiah or lynching him to confirm his results. I’d rather kill him, if only to foster good lynch discussion this cycle. (If it were up to me I wouldn’t kill him at all, but unconfirmed scan results in a conversion game=bad.)

I greatly disagree with you.  It's not a smart move for a Converted!Dashe to say the Wildmen are clear.  There are 7 still living and they each have a kill they can use.  They also have the only Leader still alive.  Makes them a priority target for Converting.  If Itiah did say the Wildmen were clear, I would be voting on them straight away for being evil as it would've been highly unlikely that a Wildman wasn't converted at some stage in the past 4 cycles.

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11 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

There may be a Wildman Independent yet unknown (in which case I would appreciate being contacted by them), but if that Independent exists they are likely cleared, as I can’t imagine there being a Spirit Independent Wildman—that seems like too many roles to have at once, if only for balance’s sake. 

There can only be an Independent Wildman if there are six Barons or eight Independents. We know that there were five starting Children of Karata, and Itiah claims seven original Wildmen if his joining them made eight in the doc. You have claimed that there are currently four players in the Baron doc, which means the Barons started with only five players (unless the Barons have all decided to lie about how many members they started with for whatever reason. For now, I will assume that is not the case.) With two multi-factional Independents, that's a total of 22 players(5 Barons + 7 Wildmen + 5 Children + 5 pure Independents). That means that if any Wildman Independent exists, there's a pure Independent who did not make it onto your list. I would be surprised if 7.33 Independents rounded up to eight, but 4.4 Children rounded up to five while 5.5 Barons rounded down to five, so it's not impossible.

10 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

Is it a bad thing that we’re in turn 5 and I literally have no idea how 4 people got attacked last night?

The writeup only indicates that two or three people were attacked: Coop, MetaTerminal, and Mailliw. The phrase 'killed in Action' in reference to Mailliw's death, and the fact that Mii was trying to kill someone in his death scene, suggest that Mailliw may have died because his target fought back. Only the attacking Wildmen know for sure why they targeted who they did, but Coop had been a target for several cycles, and both he and MetaTerminal had recently been revealed as Independents. If Mailliw was attacked by a fellow Wildman, it may have had something to do with him claiming Dahad roleblocked him, or perhaps the PM he had with Fifth was the motivation.

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I’m not sure what I think about an Itiah kill. On the one hand, we dry up our only possible source of information - on the other, they’re a prime target for conversion, if they weren’t converted already. A wildman kill on them would do well to confirm that there is a traitor in their midst. And if they’re converted, it benefits us anyway. A win-win.

If Itiah is lying, then sharing the Shaor Wildmen list wouldn’t benefit us at all - it’d just narrow down the list for the elims when they don’t have a converted Spirit in the group. But if they are telling the truth, then not sharing would give them an extra turn to narrow down the pool of potential leaders. 

My gut read says that Itiah is telling the truth, but we’ll need confirmation for that. As a result, Itiah. As for the remaining traitor, CadCom for now (although this may change if I see the list of Wildmen).

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8 minutes ago, MetaTerminal said:

If Itiah is lying, then sharing the Shaor Wildmen list wouldn’t benefit us at all - it’d just narrow down the list for the elims when they don’t have a converted Spirit in the group. But if they are telling the truth, then not sharing would give them an extra turn to narrow down the pool of potential leaders. 

I'm fairly sure that Itiah would only lie about his scan results if he was evil. If that's the case, then the Spirits would have the Wildmen list, as Itiah is currently part of the Wildman doc.

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Hello everyone. As you may know, I am not to keen on dying. Mostly, though, I agree with Meta’s beginning part of his post addressing this:

1 hour ago, MetaTerminal said:

On the one hand, we dry up our only possible source of information - on the other, they’re a prime target for conversion, if they weren’t converted already.

See, this is true, and I’m not going to deny it. I personally feel I’m a really good source of information, but Meta’s right when he says that also makes me the most likely to be converted.

Here’s the thing, though, and this may be the case for any one of the people we deem suspicious. If we already find them suspicious, then I would think the Spirits would convert someone else, and let the village kill one of their own.

I mean, take me for example. I choose me as an example because I’m the only one I truly know is innocent. Since converting me would do a lot of good to the Spirits, wouldn’t it make sense for the Spirits to use their conversion for a potential gang leader instead, and make everyone think they converted me?

It wouldn’t be a hard lie to sell. I am a good target, after all, but maybe I’m a too obvious one, and maybe the Spirits believe you guys will just kill me anyway.

This could honestly be the case for any suspicious person. What if they’re not a convert, but the Spirits want you to think that?

Anyway, here’s another insight I have about inactive players. Some people believe that the Spirits could potentially convert an inactive player this game so we never see it coming. There is one concern, though:

This isn’t like that AN game, where it’s actually one player account-swapping. Conversion means that it will be the same player, just with a different goal.

Therefore, an inactive player before conversion will be of no use to the Spirits after conversion, as they’ll still be inactive.

This leads me to believe that any converts would most likely be people who are more active and useful in the thread, contrary to an inactive. A useful player before conversion is a useful player after.

These people could also be main conversion targets. For example, I haven’t really done any analysis (apart from this post :P) this game. In fact, my biggest use in this game is the fact I’m Dashe, which would be a useless skill to the Spirits. The only incentive to convert me would be to take an important figure away from the village, which the elims can do anyway by converting someone active and useful and trusted, which also give them the advantage of having such a useful, active player on their team.

Also, can someone tell me what’s so suspicous about CadCom? I haven’t really been paying attention to his posts but people find him really suspicous and that was going to prompt me to vote for him, because he’s a Wildman, generally active, and suspicous.

Edited by I think I am here.
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Okay, well, I've been looking over posts and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. I've been suspicious of Cadcom for most of the game, but going over his posts, I'm getting the feeling that he's actually village. Probably should elaborate on that, but it's hard to explain. Idk, he just seems genuine in his insistence that he's not evil, and his somewhat fatalistic view lately seems village to me. Like he's frustrated he can't convince everyone he's not evil and doesn't know what else to do.

Now comes the tinfoil. I've been going over Fifth's and Itiah's posts lately and am starting to think that Fifth, and possibly Itiah as well, are Spirits. I think it would be interesting if Joe had both starting Spirits in the smallest faction, but also gave one of them PM's to help with info gathering, and I just feel off about Fifth's posts(nothing specific, although asking for an Independent Wildman to contact you when the Spirits are looking to narrow who Shaor could be is suspicious I think). There are a couple things I'd like to know before I go any further with this though.

1. Itiah, how did you know Elandera was Karata? Fifth stated that you knew Shqueeves was evil by process of elimination because you knew who Karata was.
2. Itiah, once Karata was converted, you said you thought Elandera was Karata but that Fifth could possibly be Karata? It seems inconsistent with what you told Fifth.

Anyways, current tinfoil is that Fifth is Galladon, they(Fifth and Shqueeves and whoever might have been converted C1) converted Itiah on C2, then came up with a plan to get Karata and get both Itiah and Fifth fairly trusted by "catching" Shqueeves, therefore giving a clear link as to how Karata was converted so early. It might be a bit of a reach, but I don't have anything better. None of the known Wildmen jump out at me as being suspicious and narrowing the field for who Shaor could be shouldn't be done unless there's very good reason I think. I don't think Itiah is absolutely evil if Fifth is, I just think there's a connection there that's a little strange. Fifth.

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Hey Lopen!

(you know, there should be a symbol for a moderately happy statement because the exclaimation mark sounds like I’m shouting and the full stop sounds monotone.)

1. Full disclosure: I had no idea who Karata was. I knew it wasn’t me, and it certainly wasn’t Sart (cuz he ded).

The real POE was to check who was innocent. I knew I was, and I trusted Fifth. When I told him there was a traitor in our gang, he said he’d found Shqueeves suspicious. None of us knew who Karata actually was. But Fifth found Shqueeves fishy and I trusted his judgement.

So it really wasn’t as simple as Fifth said. There was a legitimate chance Shqueeves wouldn’t be the traitor. In that case, we’d move onto Elandera.

I didn’t really figure out much. We knew the traitor had to be either Elandera or Shqueeves, and Shqueeves was acting off.

2. So, at this point I started thinking about things a bit more. My instinct was to say Elandera was Karata (due to last point’s reasoning), but I figured it might also have been Fifth, and maybe he was being cautious and not telling me.

I knew Karata had to either be Fifth or Elandera. My only hint it was Elandera was the reasoning I’ve mentioned in the last post.

To put it simply, my only assurance Karata was Elandera was Fifth’s assurance he wasn’t Karata, so basically trust. I figured if he was Karata, I couldn’t trust him anyway! So I considered both options and posted both, though I said I was leaning Elandera because I still trusted Fifth and felt our reasoning was pretty sound.

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Fifth, I'd like that reasoning if possible - I do find it a little frustrating when I have someone voting on me and I have nothing to respond to.

Lopen, Dashe scanned the Children, and found only one villain in that group. So, unless Dashe was also immediately converted in the first turn (which... would be fairly extraordinary if true), Dashe lied about the number of converts in the group, and then Fifth bussed Shqueeves, which seems to unlikely to be true. As such, I'm going to go with CadCom - I see your point, but I don't see any better candidates currently. If I were after an Independent specifically, I might go for @Droughtbringer, as someone who's neutral, but otherwise, I don't see it. (I trust both Devotary and Fifth at this stage, and MetaTerminal just seems like a new player to me.

Actually - Coop got referred to as an Independent/Baron "ambassador". @Fifth Scholar - are you referred to as an "Ambassador" in your GM PM? And if there's an Ambassador for the Children, and an Ambassador for the Baron's, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an Ambassador for the Wildmen. Has anyone claimed as much in the Wildmen Doc? If so, (particularly if they haven't claimed as much to anybody), then they become a lot more suspicious to me.

Edited by Young Bard
their vs. there. Bleh. Englishing is hard.
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2 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

Okay, well, I've been looking over posts and trying to find someone to be suspicious of. I've been suspicious of Cadcom for most of the game, but going over his posts, I'm getting the feeling that he's actually village. Probably should elaborate on that, but it's hard to explain. Idk, he just seems genuine in his insistence that he's not evil, and his somewhat fatalistic view lately seems village to me. Like he's frustrated he can't convince everyone he's not evil and doesn't know what else to do.

Now comes the tinfoil. I've been going over Fifth's and Itiah's posts lately and am starting to think that Fifth, and possibly Itiah as well, are Spirits. I think it would be interesting if Joe had both starting Spirits in the smallest faction, but also gave one of them PM's to help with info gathering, and I just feel off about Fifth's posts(nothing specific, although asking for an Independent Wildman to contact you when the Spirits are looking to narrow who Shaor could be is suspicious I think). There are a couple things I'd like to know before I go any further with this though.

1. Itiah, how did you know Elandera was Karata? Fifth stated that you knew Shqueeves was evil by process of elimination because you knew who Karata was.
2. Itiah, once Karata was converted, you said you thought Elandera was Karata but that Fifth could possibly be Karata? It seems inconsistent with what you told Fifth.

Anyways, current tinfoil is that Fifth is Galladon, they(Fifth and Shqueeves and whoever might have been converted C1) converted Itiah on C2, then came up with a plan to get Karata and get both Itiah and Fifth fairly trusted by "catching" Shqueeves, therefore giving a clear link as to how Karata was converted so early. It might be a bit of a reach, but I don't have anything better. None of the known Wildmen jump out at me as being suspicious and narrowing the field for who Shaor could be shouldn't be done unless there's very good reason I think. I don't think Itiah is absolutely evil if Fifth is, I just think there's a connection there that's a little strange. Fifth.

The issue with this theory is the cost/benefit ratio. It would be much easier in the tumult of the initial cycles to simply convert and then scatter all the Children, if I had started as Galladon, rather than running some elaborate lie to gain transient trust that wouldn’t last more than a cycle in a conversion game, and indeed get me suspected for being a good conversion target, as is happening now. 

10 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Fifth, I'd like that reasoning if possible - I do find it a little frustrating when I have someone voting on me and I have nothing to respond to.

Sorry, forgot this after a flurry of PMs. My main reasoning was that some of your posts felt exaggerated in tone, like your one at the end of last cycle, and also it feels like you’re trying to pocket me, which I’m leery of ever since the AG. That said, my case is less comprehensive than it likely should be, and I’ll probably reassess my vote later today. 

13 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Actually - Coop got referred to as an Independent/Baron "ambassador". @Fifth Scholar - are you referred to as an "Ambassador" in your GM PM? And if there's an Ambassador for the Children, and an Ambassador for the Baron's, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an Ambassador for the Wildmen. Has anyone claimed as much in the Wildmen Doc? If so, (particularly if they haven't claimed as much to anybody), then they become a lot more suspicious to me.

I think so, yes. And I don’t necessarily see malicious intent—they may be mostly inactive, or simply choosing to keep their abilities secret to avoid being targeted. 

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1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

Hey Lopen!

(you know, there should be a symbol for a moderately happy statement because the exclaimation mark sounds like I’m shouting and the full stop sounds monotone.)

1. Full disclosure: I had no idea who Karata was. I knew it wasn’t me, and it certainly wasn’t Sart (cuz he ded).

The real POE was to check who was innocent. I knew I was, and I trusted Fifth. When I told him there was a traitor in our gang, he said he’d found Shqueeves suspicious. None of us knew who Karata actually was. But Fifth found Shqueeves fishy and I trusted his judgement.

So it really wasn’t as simple as Fifth said. There was a legitimate chance Shqueeves wouldn’t be the traitor. In that case, we’d move onto Elandera.

I didn’t really figure out much. We knew the traitor had to be either Elandera or Shqueeves, and Shqueeves was acting off.

2. So, at this point I started thinking about things a bit more. My instinct was to say Elandera was Karata (due to last point’s reasoning), but I figured it might also have been Fifth, and maybe he was being cautious and not telling me.

I knew Karata had to either be Fifth or Elandera. My only hint it was Elandera was the reasoning I’ve mentioned in the last post.

To put it simply, my only assurance Karata was Elandera was Fifth’s assurance he wasn’t Karata, so basically trust. I figured if he was Karata, I couldn’t trust him anyway! So I considered both options and posted both, though I said I was leaning Elandera because I still trusted Fifth and felt our reasoning was pretty sound.

But it seemed like Fifth was certain that Elandera was Karata. He even went so far as to tell Mailliw that. It just seems odd.

5 minutes ago, Young Bard said:

Fifth, I'd like that reasoning if possible - I do find it a little frustrating when I have someone voting on me and I have nothing to respond to.

Lopen, Dashe scanned the Children, and found only one villain in that group. So, unless Dashe was also immediately converted in the first turn (which... would be fairly extraordinary if true), Dashe lied about the number of converts in the group, and then Fifth bussed Shqueeves, which seems to unlikely to be true. As such, I'm going to go with CadCom - I see your point, but I don't see any better candidates currently. If I were after an Independent specifically, I might go for @Droughtbringer, as someone who's neutral, but otherwise, I don't see it. (I trust both Devotary and Fifth at this stage, and MetaTerminal just seems like a new player to me.

Actually - Coop got referred to as an Independent/Baron "ambassador". @Fifth Scholar - are you referred to as an "Ambassador" in your GM PM? And if there's an Ambassador for the Children, and an Ambassador for the Baron's, I'd be surprised if there wasn't an Ambassador for the Wildmen. Has anyone claimed as much in the Wildmen Doc? If so, (particularly if they haven't claimed as much to anybody), then they become a lot more suspicious to me.

Hm. I had somehow forgotten about the scan "clearing" Fifth. Kinda makes me want to lynch Itiah to check since if Fifth is evil Itiah would have to be as well, but idk. Itiah didn't scan on C1, so he could have been converted C1 or C2. I'm leaning towards them both being villagers at this point though I think, mostly because Itiah's above post feels genuine, rather than carefully worded to avoid potential trip-ups.

Aaand now Fifth has posted. Yeah, I was thinking it wasn't too likely, but thought I'd put it out there since it was on my mind. At least now I can look elsewhere. Tomorrow though. :P

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4 hours ago, TheMightyLopen said:

But it seemed like Fifth was certain that Elandera was Karata. He even went so far as to tell Mailliw that. It just seems odd.

During cycle 2, I asked Fifth how he had managed to determine the identity of the traitor, given that he had said in PM that there were four members of his faction at the time. Fifth told me that me that he had received a Karata claim from someone other than Shqueeves. Further, as he knew Dashe's identity and ruled out himself, he was able to single out Shqueeves as being the traitor. Evidently, there was some lying going on, as Fifth claimed that Dashe knew Karata's identity during cycle 2 and Dashe now denies that. However, I do believe Fifth was telling the truth about knowing Karata's identity, as he was too sure that Shqueeves was the traitor rather than Elandera.

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16 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Itiah is currently part of the Wildman doc.

Ah, I missed that. In that case, we should reveal a Wildmen list - in either case, the elims have one (either Itiah is converted and lying about there being a traitor, or he is telling the truth and there’s another convert in the group.) 

CadCom’s been marked down as suspicious mostly for pushing lynches without providing justification, and a whole bunch of gut reads. It’s entirely possible he’s just acting elim unintentionally, but as of now he’s been pinned by a number of others. That being said, if I were a Spirit and I wanted to pick someone to convert, I would pick someone in good standing and with trust built, not someone already under suspicion. If CadCom is a Spirit, he’s probably Galladon.

I don’t think Fifth was a Spirit as of the Shqueeves lynch. I think bussing like that, especially early game bussing with no major suspicions against Shqueeves in the first place, would do them more harm than benefit. Having an extra member with abilities would be far more useful than gaining ‘trust’, at least in my eyes. Let the villagers lynch their own members while you quietly work in the background, instead of giving them a leg up. Fifth might have been converted, though - I personally think they would’ve tried for a potential Shaor instead, but we can’t confirm that. A Dashe kill would go a long way to help clear Fifth, although Itiah might’ve just been pocketed.

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So I think this is the first cycle where someone actually defended me. It's something I kind of find interesting, and this is my idea as to why. I was at a point where I had become the most suspicious. So if they defend me at this time, then people will think nothing of it right now. Except when I flip village, then people will read them as trustworthy, for having an accurate read on me.  I'll try to explain it more if people have questions about that, but for now, I think only one other person has a vote, so out of self interest, Bard. I feel justified in that because I think he has about the same chance as I have of being an eliminator.

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While I feel like there is a decent chance young bard might be evil if cadmium compounder flips village, I'm still going to go with Cadmium Compounder.

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Alright, we've officially gotten to the point where I'm confused enough about what's going on that I'm pretty useless. CadCom, I guess?

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