Long Game 49/Anonymous Game 3: Window to the Past

[Indigo Weasel]

Losing Navani is going to hurt the anti-desolation fight, as I was fairly sure she was onto something important.

It's good to see I wasn't the only one to guess that someone would be coming after Klade (I wasn't part of the cooperation, but I did submit an action of my own to protect him). Between the kill on Navani and Klade, I feel quite comfortable saying that there's 2 killers out there, and at least one of them is working against the overall goal of stopping the desolation.

@SE_Ialai_Sadeas, just for the record, your attempts to perform the 4-person coop results where as follows, right?

8.5 - Someone pulled out
9.0 - Roleblocked
9.5 - Roleblocked

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Sage Kangaroo]

Klade spoke up. "Last night, I was attacked. Thanks to protection from some of the other guests, I was not harmed. However," he continued, "I did spot the face of the attacker." He turned and glared at @SE_Adolin_Kholin. "Adolin, why did you attack me?"

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

13 hours ago, SE_Adolin_Kholin said:

Also Jasnah you really can’t die now because then I’d be killed for being king. Also you probably don’t want a notorious flirt trying to find a suitable royal consort   

"Adolin, my poor cousin," Jasnah began, "What you do not understand is that I am a Queen, not a King. The Alethi men, despite all their attempts at diplomacy, tend to resort to violence in the end. As you have seen, and as Klade claims that you have done."However, us women are very apt at diplomacy. It is unfortunate that my mother was killed, but I believe that I will be able to save our kingdom, and perhaps save the treaty, because we do have much to learn of each other." 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

3 hours ago, SE_Klade said:

Klade spoke up. "Last night, I was attacked. Thanks to protection from some of the other guests, I was not harmed. However," he continued, "I did spot the face of the attacker." He turned and glared at @SE_Adolin_Kholin. "Adolin, why did you attack me?"

That's good to know. @SE_Adolin_Kholin I too would like an explanation. Do you have information we do not?

[Mint Heron]

"Call me paranoid, but despite the fact that I trust Klade, I do feel as though there is a possibility that he may be lying. If he is the one with the win condition to kill all Kholins, what better way to turn the remaining individuals against the Kholins than to say one of them attacked him last night? Klade, would you be so kind as to fill us in on your win conditions? And Adolin, would you please confirm or deny whether you attacked Klade last night? I am still concerned about the idea that there are still multiple people teaming up to kill kholins, and am becoming worried about all the lying. This is empirical evidence of why chulls are greatly superior to you alethi..."

[Emerald Falcon]

Correction, Ivory: in 9.5 someone pulled out and I forgot to submit the action. I wasn’t roleblocked.

As for the Adolin accusation: Adolin has on more than one occasion been the aforementioned person who pulled out in the last minute, claiming that he got cold feet and tried to protect himself instead (it didn’t, and couldn’t, work). And while I have places where he’s claimed that he was undertaking different actions (like protecting Jasnah solo last turn) I don’t have any evidence of these actually occurring. So while I trust him not to work against me I think it’s entirely likely he could be the Peccant. (Tinfoil pays off.)

There isn’t an ostracism this round, however. So instead I’d recommend that someone protect Klade, and perhaps someone could spy on our young Kholin.

[Mauve Crocodile]

6 hours ago, SE_Klade said:

Klade spoke up. "Last night, I was attacked. Thanks to protection from some of the other guests, I was not harmed. However," he continued, "I did spot the face of the attacker." He turned and glared at @SE_Adolin_Kholin. "Adolin, why did you attack me?"

This is interesting on several levels, Klade. 

I could go ahead and craft a convincing, resounding denial of this accusation which seems to be unsupported by any actual evidence, merely the implication of it that is meant to convict me, based on what you likely assume are reasonable proofs that I was the one to kill you. And your conjecture, substantiated or otherwise, has merit. I have attacked you last round. (Though I did not kill Venli; that death was unrelated.) 

Ialai accuses me of getting cold feet. This is not entirely accurate; I would have been happy to help her, even last round when I suspected Klade, but I never received enough information to do a successful action, because she never gave enough of it to me in time (which was partly my fault, but still). So instead I attempted to protect myself (which didn’t succeed) and then tried to kill you (which did, but failed because of Kelek’s protection). And I believe I have reason for this. 

Consider the remaining un-ostracised players. The Heralds have alibis, at least according to Ialai, and at any rate why would they want to start a Desolation? They’re trying to hide from their eternal torment, after all. I trust them individually, and Tearim has vouched for them as a group. Individually I wouldn’t trust this evidence, but together it presents a convincing case that they aren’t starting Desolations. 

Jasnah is Queen, and as a Radiant has no canonical reason to want a Desolation; the opposite rather. Her alibi, and that of Ivory’s, is also supported by Ialai, and I have a moderate personal trust of them. I see no reason to suspect Desolation-causing activity from any of them. 

Ialai herself is interesting; I don’t particularly trust her at all, yet she strikes me as a fairly odd person to be trying to create a new Desolation. She may be trying to kill my family to become Queen, but I doubt that’s her long game, and there’s nothing linking her to the Desolation. I obviously plead innocent to the charge of facilitating a Desolation, as again, it’d be a very odd win condition for me in-character, and OOC trying to murder the eventual servants of Odium (the Parshendi) would be an odd move. 

Meanwhile, consider Klade. He is a Parshendi, canonically likely to begin a Desolation. We have no alibi from him, at least none that seems realistic, and by POE he stands out as the last potential suspect. (Tearim is still a possibility as a Son of Honour but he can be quickly disposed of if both Klade and I die and the Desolation still cometh.) This cycle, based on what I would suppose is conjecture, he attempts to ostracise me, one of the last two Kholins, on a cycle with no ostracisation, with a lack of corroboration and a platitude that we cannot trust; the presumption that he is innocent and should be protected. 

Therefore, this cycle, I propose that we roleblock and kill Klade. If nobody protects him, he can die and his true colours will be shown; if he is loyal, there is an ostracisation vote C11 that I will accept as the price of my failure to correctly predict the end of the Desolation. But if he is a traitor, we will have ended the game; I’ve gotten GM confirmation that I can stop the Desolation given the current actions available to me. 

@SE_Ivory @SE_Jasnah_Kholin @SE_Drunk_Beggar @SE_Ash @SE_Kelek @SE_Ialai_Sadeas 

[Indigo Weasel]

@SE_Adolin_Kholin, you state that you did not kill Venli. Did you kill Eshonai?

[Mauve Crocodile]

No, I did not kill her either. I don’t even remember when she died, to be honest.  I think I was still on my quest for bottles of Violet Wine at that point. I will note that I made an attempt on Venli’s life with Liss the cycle she was protected, but didn’t actually kill her. 

[Indigo Weasel]

And because you brought up what happened 'historically', I do not think I have to remind you that the Parshendi started the Desolation only after your people had given them the choice between extinction and Desolation, just as you are trying to do now?

Anyway, if your only proof for Klade's misdemeanour is what you think might have happened historically, I think you're very far down the wrong path. If you have more proof, share it. If you don't, then why did you go for a kill instead of an action to confirm what he was doing?

Edit: You also seem to be implying that he's behind the Kholin murders, but if he managed to action-spy on you, he obviously didn't kill Navani. So, since it isn't Klade, who would be responsible?

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Mauve Crocodile]

I’m essentially acting like every cycle is my last. With whoever is hunting the Kholins looking ready to kill me next, I thought more drastic action may have been necessary to accomplish what I believed right. Scan results are useless if I can’t share them, and after failing a wincon that deducted percentage points from my Action Spy chance, I’m not particularly inclined to use it. 

And, as I said, I have proof beyond “what happened historically.” PoE points towards Klade as a suspect even if I ignore canon, and unless you have something that undermines the alibis of the people I listed, it still stands, and casts Klade as the most likely suspect left (other than perhaps Tearim, and again, he’s ostracised and can be dealt with at any time). Even if attacking Klade fails, the remaining people are still down two suspects (Klade and myself), and we might actually get the game solved before the 12-cycle limit ends the game, which is looking like a real possibility the more we stall.

[Indigo Weasel]

You haven't explained how Klade killed Navani while action-spying on you, though. I understand the argument you're making, but if you can't explain how the one remaining person in your POE committed on of the murders, your POE is faulty.

As for other people, Tearim can't be ruled out, and Ialai only has a solid alibi for cycle 9 (on which only Eshonai died), as participants in a combined action still get told they succeeded, even if the person submitting the action decided to do something else, but if the main action-submitter is roleblocked, everyone gets told their action has failed. Given that Adolin backing out would explain why Ialai's goal kept failing, I'm not certain on Ialai one way or another.

@Orlok Tsubodai (and/or other GM's) do effects exist in this game that could kill without player intervention?

[Mauve Crocodile]

I suspect that Klade did not action-spy me. He will certainly claim it, now that I’ve confessed, but he has no real evidence to support that, and could have easily done PoE of his own to deduce it was me. And again, do you have knowledge of your actions, or those of others, to craft a more reliable PoE? If so, that would be appreciated. The only thing that will kill us right now is inaction, and I’d like to see some of my actual suspects start dying, even if that means I die too.

I’ve already said that I don’t fully trust Ialai. But I certainly don’t approve of Klade either, and to me the case against him is stronger. And I’ve said many times that Tearim can’t be ruled out, but again, he *can* be dealt with later. 

 

[Indigo Weasel]

7 minutes ago, SE_Adolin_Kholin said:

I suspect that Klade did not action-spy me. He will certainly claim it, now that I’ve confessed, but he has no real evidence to support that, and could have easily done PoE of his own to deduce it was me. And again, do you have knowledge of your actions, or those of others, to craft a more reliable PoE? If so, that would be appreciated. The only thing that will kill us right now is inaction, and I’d like to see some of my actual suspects start dying, even if that means I die too.

Jasnah suggested killing him last cycle and Ialai suggested he might have been responsible for killing the Kholins, so I really don't see how he'd figure you would have been the one to attack him without an action spy. However, @SE_Klade, it might be a good idea if you explained why you decided to action-spy on Adolin in the first place.

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Emerald Falcon]

There may have been a miscommunication between us, then, as I definitely sent you the required information. The fact that I never got back to you is an oversight, and my fault, but I definitely didn’t expect you to pull out without telling me. (The fact that I never ended up submitting the action is neither here nor there.)

You raise some valid points, but attacking shouldn’t be our default option here. We need analysis and thought, not one-man hit squads roaming the palace. If we suspect Klade, we should action spy on him, or roleblock him. (Question - do roleblocked actions show up in an action spy?) It’s a similar thing to what you tried with your Dalinar plan. Killing does more harm and good, and we should confirm our suspicions before acting on them. As you yourself stated earlier, we should not accelerate the death rate.

[Mauve Crocodile]

To all of you saying that killing is an extreme solution, I have the following set of questions/statements: 

1. How do you expect to remove suspected players? Ostracised individuals will still have access to potentially dangerous actions (and are removed to a place where we can’t further analyse them), roleblocks prevent action spies, and action spies, especially if the person knows it’s coming, are but a temporary hindrance. (So are roleblocks, really.) Meanwhile, we have five turns left to kill whoever caused the Desolation before the game ends or they’ve killed us. We can’t afford to spend that time garnering new information, but rather acting on that which we already possess. 

2. I am accepting of my death. I don’t mind dying, but I will be annoyed if my objective of stopping the Desolation goes unfulfilled because I wasn’t able to act on any of my suspicions. Again, we have five turns to figure this out, and every action counts. 

3. More deaths=more information regardless. It provides an efficient PoE and gives immediate feedback over whether or not somebody is guilty. If we are wrong, we are only so much closer to being right. 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

2 hours ago, SE_Adolin_Kholin said:

This is interesting on several levels, Klade. 

I could go ahead and craft a convincing, resounding denial of this accusation which seems to be unsupported by any actual evidence, merely the implication of it that is meant to convict me, based on what you likely assume are reasonable proofs that I was the one to kill you. And your conjecture, substantiated or otherwise, has merit. I have attacked you last round. (Though I did not kill Venli; that death was unrelated.)

 

2 hours ago, SE_Ivory said:

@SE_Adolin_Kholin, you state that you did not kill Venli. Did you kill Eshonai?

 

2 hours ago, SE_Adolin_Kholin said:

No, I did not kill her either. I don’t even remember when she died, to be honest.  I think I was still on my quest for bottles of Violet Wine at that point. I will note that I made an attempt on Venli’s life with Liss the cycle she was protected, but didn’t actually kill her. 

This just got more interesting, because I know that Liss had a wincon to cooperate with me in killing someone. She and I put in an action together to kill Amaram. (I think Wit can confirm this) But my action to cooperate was redirected, and Liss successfully killed Amaram. 

Because I was redirected, Liss then told me that she was planning on assisting Adolin with assisting killing Venli, and asked that I assist. I refused because I didn't like the Idea until I had more evidence. 

So, Knowing that Liss was assisting Adolin to kill Venli, I can no longer trust what Adolin has said for now. 

 

I will post more on this later, but I am still suspicious that even though Adolin lied, he might be on the right track. It's either they have to die, or SoH all have to die, or Heralds have to die, though that one conflicts with the fact that the living heralds tend to break easier than Taln.

[Mauve Crocodile]

7 minutes ago, SE_Jasnah_Kholin said:

Because I was redirected, Liss then told me that she was planning on assisting Adolin with assisting killing Venli, and asked that I assist. I refused because I didn't like the Idea until I had more evidence. 

So, Knowing that Liss was assisting Adolin to kill Venli, I can no longer trust what Adolin has said for now. 

 

I will post more on this later, but I am still suspicious that even though Adolin lied, he might be on the right track. It's either they have to die, or SoH all have to die, or Heralds have to die, though that one conflicts with the fact that the living heralds tend to break easier than Taln.

I did not lie. In fact, I told the complete truth, I simply forgot the outcome of my actions. Venli was indirectly protected, and Liss’s and my kill landed on Darkness instead. The cycle following, I made no attempt to kill Venli, seeing that she was ostracised. 

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

Ok, so you accidentally killed darkness, Liss killed Amaram. 

So what made you decide to attack Klade as opposed to Tearim? You may have already answered, but I just switched to mobile, making it harder to look, and I'm too lazy to try. 

[Mauve Crocodile]

Tearim was ostracised, and I saw Klade as more of a likely threat, given that Tearim claimed to not have actually joined the SoH, if I’m reading his posts correctly. Tearim’s impending ostracisation factored into my analysis as well. That said, there wasn’t terribly much to choose between the two. 

Edited October 25, 2018 by SE_Adolin_Kholin
Added a statement

[Opal Lion]

4 hours ago, SE_Ivory said:

Ialai only has a solid alibi for cycle 9 (on which only Eshonai died), as participants in a combined action still get told they succeeded, even if the person submitting the action decided to do something else, but if the main action-submitter is roleblocked, everyone gets told their action has failed. Given that Adolin backing out would explain why Ialai's goal kept failing, I'm not certain on Ialai one way or another.

I don't believe this is true, as I was informed that my action failed on the turn Ialai claimed she failed to take an action(9.5)

@SE_Adolin_Kholin, why is it that you can consistently take two actions per turn? Is it possible that @SE_Klade has received the same benefit?

[Mauve Crocodile]

That is not the case (at least, not any longer). I only had two actions a turn on cycles 7 and 8, to compensate for an error in receiving my win condition. I’ve been at one action per cycle since Day 9. 

[Indigo Weasel]

7 hours ago, SE_Drunk_Beggar said:

I don't believe this is true, as I was informed that my action failed on the turn Ialai claimed she failed to take an action(9.5)

That was the cycle she claimed she failed to submit an action at all, so that would explain that outcome. I actually checked the information I stated in that quote with the GM's when I started to suspect Ialai.

@SE_Adolin_Kholin, have you considered the possibility yet that killing all the Parshendi will actually trigger the desolation? As for other ways to deal with and confirm threats, roleblocking has better base odds than attacking, so why didn't you try to roleblock Klade for a cycle to see if that stopped the kill? After all, you seem to think he's working alone, so that could have proven it with less risk to yourself than a kill would pose.

Edited October 26, 2018 by SE_Ivory

[Fuchsia Ostrich]

1. Gavilar Kholin (Amber Vulture) - Possibly leader of SoH, Was killed by Aesudan. Did she have her own motives with the black sphere?
2. Dalinar Kholin (Amethyst Scorpion) - Killed by Venli, in order to kill a member of Gavilar's War Crew. Which seems odd to me, because the Parshendi had little to do with the War-like Parshendi, as they were trying to create a treaty
3. Torol Sadeas (Azure Mouse) - Killed by Ialai, by accident after a redirect. Kill was supposed to hit Restares
4. Meridas Amaram (Charcoal Hyena) - I'm pretty sure tearim confirmed he was a SoH, and therefore had some adverse Win-con. 
5. Restares (Chartreuse Penguin) - Responsible for the kill attempt on me. Don't know much else. 
6. Tearim (Coral Swan) - Currently  ostracized for possibly being a causer of the desolation. Previously had something to do with SoH. He says that's over, but no one trusted him enough to not lynch him. 
7. Navani Kholin (Cream Tuatara) - Died Recently. We still don't exactly know by whom. It was not Adolin or Klade. 
8. Ialai Sadeas (Emerald Falcon) - Responsible for Kill on Torol, also responsible for the kill on Szeth, because outing that she had killed Torol in the thread somehow invalidated her win con to kill. Possibly to complete a wincon to join a secret society. Though I consider it unlikely, because the rest of the game she has seemed to be relatively cooperative. 
9. Jasnah Kholin (Fuchsia Ostrich) - Partially responsible for kill on Restares, in order to punish my attacker. 
10. Ivory (Indigo Weasel) - Currently Bonded. to me. Partially responsible for Kill on Restares. 
11. Elhokar Kholin (Ivory Dragonfly)
12. Aesudan Kholin (Magenta Albatross)  - Widely believed to be responsible for Gavilar's death, Killed by Adolin, if I remember correctly
13. Adolin Kholin (Mauve Crocodile) - Has played a game with much death, including, conspiring to kill his father, Killing Aesudan(Honor bless him), Attempting to kill Klade, Attempting to kill Venli, Killing Darkness, by accident.  
14. Renarin Kholin (Melon Dingo)
15. Wit (Mint Heron) - Apparently recently finished his win con of helping people, and now must stop the desolation. 
16. Liss (Onyx Flamingo) - Currently ostracized, most likely because she attempted to gamble. Her win con was to cooperate with me in killing someone. We attempted to do that with Amaram, but I was redirected to Amaram, so I ended up assisting him, instead of Liss. Was considering attempting an attack on Venli during her ostracization, but decided against it. Killed Amaram. 
17. Drunk Beggar (Opal Lion) - Happened to protect me the same cycle I was attacked. Seems genuinely good, as he decided to walk into Yelig-Nar to stop it. Do they have their honorblade?
18. Ash (Oxblood Beagle) - Relatively less active. 
19. Darkness (Pearl Chameleon) - Had Win con to punish criminals by ostracizing them. That's really all I remember about them
20. Kelek (Plum Rhinoceros) - Protected Klade this cycle, and is therefore the reason he is still alive. 
21. Eshonai (Quartz Zebra) - Adolin claimed not to have killed Eshonai, which means their killer may still be at large. It could be tearim, or Liss, but Who knows? 
22. Venli (Saffron Iguana) - Was in ostracization of possibly working to cause desolation, as well as killing Dalinar. Died while in ostracization
23. Klade (Sage Kangaroo) - In the action that Darkness died, Klade did not do anything, meaning he was not the one to redirect Adolin to Darkness. Unfortunately that does not vouch for the possibility that the Parshendi are responsible for the deaths of the Kholins 
24. Thaidakar (Salmon Meerkat) - Was a Ghostblood. First killed if I'm not wrong. 
25. Szeth Sapphire Elephant) - Was helping parshendi, who had his oathstone. 

This list is in no way exhaustive, and it only contains some quick thoughts on most players. If anyone wants to add to it, that'd be great! Also I think that at this point it is to our advantage to disclose anything anyone knows about any of the murders that have occurred at any point during this feast

"As queen, I will hereby pardon any offenses that come forth now, as they will all help us gather and collect information in order to stop the desolation.

 

[Emerald Falcon]

I can confirm that Drunk Beggar does indeed have his Honorblade. I’m not sure if he’s been using it.

How do we know Klade didn’t kill Navani? Are we just assuming he made an action spy?