Herowannabe

Quick Fix Game 33 - Deception: Murder in the Cosmere

393 posts in this topic

Everyone’s ideas seem good, but I think I’ve got some that haven’t been said that we’re missing.

Venomous and poisonous are very different things. The murderer could have chosen one of them to throw us off, right? I know that the poison one also includes sicknesses, but since that includes so many things it makes sense the oracle would just favour accident, as no one gets venomously bitten on purpose.

Also, How is anyone forgetting the Hemalurgic Chimeras? They are very animal like, pretty vicious, and they fit most of the animal clues. They also have a footprint, rather than a claw or hoof print.

Also, to Rand, I’d like to add axehound pup and straw man to the list of evidences relating to footprint. Axehound pups would obviously fit footprints (running around a lot) and the strawman wouldn’t have ‘footprints,” per say, but they would leave marks in the dirt, and let’s be honest, what other place would you put it? Obviously it wouldn’t count as residual Investiture because it itself is not the Investiture, the Investiture’s what’s inside it. Besides, the killer could have taken their Breaths back.

 

Edited by I think I am here.
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I'll try to add more content later, but since I'm about to head home from work, here are some quick combinations that I think may fit our clues so far (so I don't lose them at least)

Nightmaw + Pet Monkey
Ettmetal Explosion + Boots
Lost Divine Breath or Shades + Horseshoes
Booby Trap or Firesnap Lizards + Footprint
Hemalurgic Chimera + Dirt?
Cut-away vines or Highstorm + Crab Legs? or Wetleek Sap Trail?
Explosion or Dehydration + Hoofprints

Don't have a ton of notes on these yet.

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There’s also the case with rituals, which I’m disappointed no one has brought up!

Think about it: Obviously rituals aren’t accidents, in fact, none of these murder methods really are ‘accidents’, it is a murder, after all.

But really, what type of person would enter a ritual as a sacrifice on purpose, unless following their religion? It seems more likely the victim was just a bystander taken against their will, accidentally, if you will.

But obviously, there’s the problem of witnesses. How do you commit a ritual without any witnesses getting in the way? Why, you do it in the wilderness, that’s what! In the wilderness, you’d have no one to see your crimes, so it makes perfect sense to have a sacrificial ritual there.

And obviously your clothes would be untidy, nothing else fits. It’s like how untidy would fit the animal ones, it’s just the best fit in general.

Obviously, a sacrificial cult is one of the most despicable thins you could do, so this fits.

Now, necessity is something interesting. If you were doing a sacrificial cult, obviously you’re doing it in need of something, whether it’s powers, good luck or something else, the only reason you’d be doing a sacrifice would be because you need something. Phenomenal fit here.

And last but not least, footprints. Duh. A bunch of cultists walking around, chanting. That’s bound to have footprints.

So that’s my reasoning, and I’m starting to believe it more and more. The murderer’s probably jut allowing us to let it slide, but I think I’ve just figured their strategy out.

(and this is all talking about the Jeskeri Rituals, by the way)

Edited by I think I am here.
Needed to make a clarification
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I think at this point one of our better clues might be Footprint. So, I'm making an accusation.

While I doubt my guess will be right, I mostly want to cross it off the list.

I believe Bort is the assassin, with the method of murder being Firesnap Lizards and the piece of evidence being Footprint.

@Herowannabe

If this isn't correct, it could still be Footprints with a different method.

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I've probably crossed too many items off the list this time, but here's my current spreadsheet. The bold items are the ones I consider to be the most likely item for that particular player, and any guess I made would likely include one of those items.

Player Name Methods of Murder Pieces of Evidence  
Elandera / Oyh Sword, Deathweed Bark, Meekers, Dreok's Axe, Aon Daa (Power), Axehound Pup, Bullet Casings, Aluminum Hat, Ancient Text, Tears of Edgli Flowers,  
MetaTerminal / Felksi Fenweed Poison, Rathbore Monk, Scarf, Koloss Blade, Surgebinding, White Sand, Withered Hand, Singed Cloak, Aviar Feather, Message Written in Blood,  
Snipexe / The Witness Steelrunning, Nightmaw, Nightblood, Midnight Essence, Poisoned Wine, Pet Monkey, Red Flag, Ceremonial Bowl, Piece of Ralkalest, Religious Text,  
Droughtbringer / In Bloodsealing, Metal Poisoning, Rioting, Dagger, Punch, Water Bottle, Chull Dung, Vandalism, Dust, False Beard,  
Madagascar / Mad Acid, Dueling Cane, Bow & Arrow, Ettmetal Explosion, Aimian, Children’s Book, Cracked Gemstone, Fancy Dress, Larkin Corpse, Boots,  
Steeldancer / Squid of Steel Skeletals , Enhanced Strength, Poisoned Needle, Backbreaker Powder, Atium, Ice, Blood, Straw Man, Scorch marks, Vandalized Statue,  
Paranoid King / The Ghost of John Smith Blackbane Leaf, Deathants, Birchbane, Whitespine, Awakened Rope, Triangular Razors, Aon Kii, Pot of Stew, Aon Ashe Plate, Spectacles,  
Randuir / Holmlock Shears Bare Hands, Burned at the Stake, Obsidian Axe, Swampvine, Kick, Tattoo, Survivor Pendant, Crem , Firemoss, Hairpin,  
I Think I am Here. / Itiah VII Lost Divine Breath, Dakhor Ritual, Shades, Blood Loss, Venomous Bite, Horseshoes, Stick, Empty Vial, Ink, Spanreed,  
Bort / May Bebort Jeskeri Cult Ritual, Booby Trap, Mistwraith, Grandbow, Firesnap Lizards, Bones, Footprint, Cigar Case, RaiDel Pepper, Lavis Beer,  
Rathmaskal / Harry Hemalurgic Chimera, Smoke, Toxic Fungus, Glass Dagger, Air-powered Crossbow, Artifact, Scorch Marks, Dirt, Priest’s Robes, Fashion Magazine,  
Devotary of Spontaneity / Fourth of the Twilight Poisoned Dart, Cut-away vines, Torture, Highstorm, Shardplate, Broadsheet, Aon Reod, Crab Legs, Map, Wetleek Sap Trail,  
A Joe in the Bush / Various Divide Beheading, Shardblade, Cliff, Deepwalker, Betrayal, Medallion, Lockpicks, Safehand Glove, Soulstamp, Shu-Korath Pendant,  
Kidpen / Alvron Duel, Hammer, Patji’s Finger, Strangle, Hook, Aonic Dictionary, Purple Blood Droplets, MaiPon Sticks, Saddle Strap, Lak,  
Cadmium Compounder / Spork Soulcasting, Explosion, Lifeless Soldier, Rifle, Dehydration, Hoofprints, Glow Paste, Wig, Smoke, Rotspren,  
Walin / Higsedal The Shaod, Chasmfiend, Black Frayn, Fire, Martial Arts, Forged Painting, Infused Spheres, A'kar's Symbol, Lamp, Skull,  

Feel free to ask why any of these items have been crossed out and/or bolded.

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1 hour ago, I think I am here. said:

It seems more likely the victim was just a bystander taken against their will, accidentally, if you will.

And last but not least, footprints. Duh. A bunch of cultists walking around, chanting. That’s bound to have footprints.

I mean, in the book, Sarene was almost sacrificed accidentally. But wouldn't body fluid fit better than footprint? This seems like a long shot to me.

Quote

Feel free to ask why any of these items have been crossed out and/or bolded.

A few people don't have anything bolded. Droughtbringer, for example, has 3 clues related to hiking, but none of them are bold. Why is that?

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10 minutes ago, Paranoid King said:

A few people don't have anything bolded. Droughtbringer, for example, has 3 clues related to hiking, but none of them are bold. Why is that?

If nothing is bold, it usually means that I don't have any particular reason to favor one of the remaining items over the others. In Drought's case, all three items could relate to wilderness and/or footprint, while the bolded items stand out more. Boots, for instance, is evidently related to footprint/wilderness while Children's book, cracked gemstone, fancy dress, and larkin corpse really aren't.

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"You think Soulcasting has something to do with it?" Oyh asked of Veh as they waited for a sign from the Oracle that his guess of the murderer was right. He was currently trying to solve the more important puzzle he faced: getting back home.

"Yes. Mmmmm. You can access the cognitive realm and travel," Veh buzzed. "But you need Stormlight. Mmmm. Lots of Stormlight."

Oyh paced. Luckily, the subtle changes he'd made upon entering Investicon didn't take much Stormlight to keep in place. "Is there any other way? I don't know if we can get that much Stormlight here."

"Find a worldhopper to take you, mmmm. Not a mmurderer."

"Obviously." What about the murderer? Could he possibly have guessed correctly? Doubtful. He couldn't be that lucky twice. He looked around the Oracle's home, items scattered everywhere in a confusing mess. Somehow, among all of this, was the clue to finding the murderer. Hopefully, it wasn't one of the other obvious worldhoppers. There were a few around him that didn't appear to be from this place, nor from Roshar. One of them had to know how worldhopping worked.

But could he trust them? Probably not yet.

"Veh, go see if you can find any more Stormlight. I have a feeling that might be my only option."

----

EDIT: Oh no, I hit submit before talking about why I was really posting: analysis.

I don't think we can cross off things like explosion from the suspect list. Like with the booby trap in the original murder, it was not actually an accident that it was done, just an "accident" (random) in who it killed. However, I will admit that something like an explosion is more likely to end up being severe injury than accidental.

Itiah, I think you might have something going with the cult ritual. Keep in mind, however, with that same logic you very well could be the assassin with Dakhor Ritual and Horseshoes. I also hesitate to go with the rituals because they tend to be death by severe injury or blood loss more than accidental, and their targets are usually not quite as random as just hitting anyone with a booby trap. Usually in rituals, they sacrifice very specific kinds of people depending on which deity they're trying to please.

Edited by Elandera
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2 hours ago, Elandera said:

I think at this point one of our better clues might be Footprint. So, I'm making an accusation.

While I doubt my guess will be right, I mostly want to cross it off the list.

I believe Bort is the assassin, with the method of murder being Firesnap Lizards and the piece of evidence being Footprint.

No

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That doesn’t completely clear Bort, although I find it unlikely that he’d use Booby Trap again when it was already used, and we’d know what to look for. I propose to softclear him for now, and come back to him if more evidence points him this way.

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1 minute ago, MetaTerminal said:

That doesn’t completely clear Bort, although I find it unlikely that he’d use Booby Trap again when it was already used, and we’d know what to look for. I propose to softclear him for now, and come back to him if more evidence points him this way.

I mean, using Booby Trap again might be the perfect cover for murder.

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55 minutes ago, MetaTerminal said:

That doesn’t completely clear Bort, although I find it unlikely that he’d use Booby Trap again when it was already used, and we’d know what to look for. I propose to softclear him for now, and come back to him if more evidence points him this way.

>.> That sounds like something a Co-Conspirator would say....

EDIT:  But in all honesty, in hindsight, it almost feels like too much of a giveaway for one of the clues to be footprints when the evidence was a footprint.

Edited by Elandera
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14 minutes ago, Elandera said:

But in all honesty, in hindsight, it almost feels like too much of a giveaway for one of the clues to be footprints when the evidence was a footprint.

The murderer has to select their evidence and means of murder before the scene tiles are drawn, and since only four scene tiles are randomly drawn out of twenty one possibilities, chances were high that the scene tile with 'footprint' as a choice would not have been drawn. 'Footprint' as evidence would be quite difficult to guess for most of the other twenty scene tiles, so Bort should not be cleared simply because 'footprint' is too obvious a clue. However, Bort is less likely to be the murderer with one possibility discounted, and the booby trap is far less likely to be the murder weapon.

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Forgive me if I retread ground already well trod. I’ve only skimmed all the threads. The first thing I have done is weeded out the methods of death, focusing only on those methods that are most likely to be an accident. I’ve removed any methods that are more likely to be something else. Anything poisonous would be in the poison section, not the accident. For that reason, I have removed all weapons and animals, as they fit better in the Sever Injury, or Loss of Blood. I’ve removed anything that is poisonous, most of the Supernatural options, and I removed Strangle, the only Suffocation option. There are a few magical options that I left in because they are background magic, rather than active magic, or because they are closer to science than magic.

That leaves 17 options. (Acid, Awakened Rope, Bare Hands, Booby Trap, Cut-away vines, Dehydration*, Enhanced Strength, Ettmetal Explosion, Explosion, Fire, Highstorm, Hook, Kick, Lost Divine Breath, Punch, Scarf, Smoke (*Should Dehydration count as Suffocation or Supernatural instead of Accident???))

Annoyingly, that only removes Elandera and Snipexe from the possible assassins.

So I ignored their clues, and started looking at the Evidence, through the lenses of Wilderness/Untidy/Footprint. I tried to find Evidence that would match all three of those, or evidence that better matched other things, in order to clear out the options. I managed to Narrow the 65 Evidence pieces down to 44. Mostly by ignoring things that fit in the city. Not all that helpful.

(Aon Kii, Aon Reod, Aviar Feather, Blood, Bones, Boots, Chull Dung, Crab Legs, Cracked Gemstone, Crem, Dirt, Dust, Firemoss, Footprint, Glow Paste, Hairpin, Hoofprints, Horseshoes, Ice, Infused Spheres, Lak, Lamp, Larkin Corpse, Map, Message Written in Blood, Pot of Stew, Purple Blood Droplets, RaiDel Pepper, Rotspren, Saddle Strap, Scorch Marks, Scorch marks, Singed Cloak, Skull, Smoke, Spanreed, Stick, Straw, Man, Survivor Pendant, Vandalism, Water Bottle, Wetleek Sap Trail, White Sand, Withered Hand)

An Accident in the Wilderness committed by a despicable man. An Accident out of Necessity, done Untidely, with a clear trail of footprints. I don’t get it. Some of them work well with Neccesity though, If I focus only on that. (Cracked Gemstone, Map, Pot of Stew, Spanreed, Survivor Pendant, Water Bottle) But none of those fit Footprints very well. Maybe map if I squint.

Boots, Crab Legs, Dirt, Dust, Footprint, Hoofprint, Horseshoes, Saddle Strap, and Wetleek Sap trail could all fit Footprint. Some better than others.

But that’s two lists of items now, and I don’t know how to choose between them. I’ll read through the thread in the morning (It’s 11:37 as I type this) and try to narrow down what I have.

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Now, all of this does seem like good analysis, but I still think we’re limiting our options here. By a lot.

Say, why is Black Frayn and Shaod crossed off? I feel like while Walin isn’t crossed off completely, he still has some options we haven’t been discussing.

But then again, we should probably lay of Walin, he hasn’t said really anything elimy, but then again, has anyone.

Still, I’m going to bring up my Black Frayn case. Who cares about cliff and Jeskeri rituals, I’ve seen the flaws in them and I think I’ve really hit the nail on the head with this one.

Black Frayn is a herb that is highly addictive and can have dangerous withdrawal symptoms, including death. It’s what was given to Straff in WoA. Now, imagine you’re in the wilderness, and you see a herb. Obviously you wouldn’t know if it wa a dangerous or not so you eat it.

And then you get addicted (accidentally), get withdrawal symptoms and die. It makes perfect sense. Only a despicable murderer would kill someone via withdrawal! Untidy clothes work, footsteps work, and obviously necessity works. When you’re addicted to a drug, you need it. I really find this one likely.

And then you have Shaod. It’s the perfect accident, it’s almost a random pick, and again, you’d have to be really despicable to kill someone this way. Though untidy clothes doesn’t quite fit, obviously your first reaction to becoming a zombie would be to hide yourself in your clothes, right? = untidy clothes.

Obviously, before Elantris fell everyone wanted to be chosen by the Shaod. Everyone needed to be, you could say. Hence, necessity.

Those are my cases, but I’m still shocked no one’s brought by Burned at the Stake. Clearly this is the murder method, and I urge everyone to accuse Randuir of this, choosing a different evidence each time so we finally catch his murderous antics. But how? Here me out:

Let’s start at the beginning. Accident. This fits like a glove. Burning at a stake is clearly something someone does accidentally. Perhaps our victim got trapped under some firewood, and somebody started a campfire? Boom, burnt at the stake. On accident.

Again, super despicable way to die. And for the untidy clothes, there’s no option for burned so untidy is the best you can do under the circumstances.

Footprint as evidence (duh), someone had to start the fire. It’s probably theirs. And necessity, because some people need to get a campfire going, it’s not their fault they accidentally burned someone at the stake.

But wait, I’m still not done blowing this entire elim game out of the water. While there may be a bunch of other things here, there’s also betrayal. How could we oversee this?? Betrayal is clearly an accident, nobody plans to betray anyone else. When you become friends, you don’t plan to betray them. It usually takes unforeseen circumstances. Hence, betrayal.

Also, despicable. Obviously. Betrayal. Untidy clothes, clearly from a little pushing around. Wilderness, a hike is the perfect moment for friends to get together, and reveal their true feelings (betrayal).

Necessity. When your betraying someone, your not doing it just to be evil. You feel the betrayal is necessary. Just look at Amaram betraying Kaladin. He felt it was necessary!

And this isn’t even getting into hunting accidents, and how anything from an air powered crossbow to a rifle to a bow and arrow could cause a hunting accident (they’d need to kill the prey), and how the Oracle wouldn’t put blood loss, as that wouldn’t narrow things down as much.

So, yeah, I think I’ve figured out the elims’ strategies. I think I know what they’re planning, I think I’ve cracked their code. That’s why I beg everyone to follow this advice.  Some of these things just weren’t obvious, but I’ve found them.

Yeah

Edited by I think I am here.
Itiah VII poked his head around the corner. How had he gotten here?
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I’m sort of bored, and I’m suspicious of Itiah so I’m making an accusation

I think Itiah is the assassin, their method was the shades and the evidence they left behind was the  horseshoes 

It’s a shot in the dark, but I figure the more info for the village the better.

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27 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

 

I’m sort of bored, and I’m suspicious of Itiah so I’m making an accusation

I think Itiah is the assassin, their method was the shades and the evidence they left behind was the  horseshoes 

No. 

 

And please remember to @ mention me when you post accusations. I check my mentions first, so this helps ensure I see accusations and respond to them more quickly. 

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I'm finding Itiah's posts as more likely to be an accomplice than the actual assassin...  (And yes, I know I haven't followed up with more analysis...had some obligations last night.  I'll see if I can sneak in some time during work today)

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@I think I am here., remember that we're not just looking for what fits the evidence, we're looking for what fits the evidence adn doesn't fit another option on any of these cards better. A lot of options you're suggesting are far better represented by other options (burned at the stake would be represented by 'severe injury', for example, as you can't accidentally burn someone at the stake). The same goes for hunting accidents with any of the available weaponry. Sure, they could be involved, but they'd be better represented by the other options.

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1 hour ago, Herowannabe said:

No. 

 

And please remember to @ mention me when you post accusations. I check my mentions first, so this helps ensure I see accusations and respond to them more quickly. 

Sorry about that

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I knew I'd be the first to be accused. That footprint thing was far too convenient.

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@I think I am here., you've been posting a lot of things that could, theoretically, fit the evidence. Do you have a list of things that stand out to you or would go well together?

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Sorry I haven't been as active as in other games, guys. I just keep getting distracted too easily. Anyway, i've gone through and deleted the items that don't quite seem to fit in my opinion. I'll post my current list now, and when D2 comes around, I'll compare it to a new list generated, based off the new information. I may add thing again, and I may remove them. But I'll start with my current list for all to see and criticize.

As you can see, I've removed everything from my name, for  obvious reasons.

Also the copy/paste function was doing something wonky, so for now, I'll post a screenstot, because I'm currently too lazy to try to fix it

list.PNG

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Do people frequently get murdered in duels by accident that often? I suppose you go out into the woods often to do those, ever since the legal system started frowning on people clearing their names with honor, but I usually picture those deaths being extremely purposeful. Unless you're trying to throw away your shot. Which I am not.

Back in my old job as Oracle, before I was disgraced and thrown out of the Oracle Force for being a violent lunatic, I did kill quite a lot of people by accident while torturing them them for information... damnation suspects always ceasing all bodily functions just to spite me. The pigs didn't even nibble on them for that long in some cases. That said, I'm not quite sure death by torture fits my idea of an "accident" either. Judging from all the murder indictments waiting for me back in my home city, the local legal system doesn't consider it to be so. Though it is certainly despicable.

My old eyes find all these spreadsheets being thrown around a bit overwhelming to try to absorb at once. I'm going to consult with the pigs and birds and make my own ... no offense but at least a few people probably aren't being 100% frank with their interpretation of the evidence *beady little eyes look around suspiciously*

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CadCom, I think if you’re making a spreadsheet you should include your own cards so others can decide that it’s not suspicious, and only eliminate those that don’t fit the evidence.

Right now, I think PK’s and Devotary’s spreadsheets fit the bill pretty well, although PK’s is clearer in terms of formatting. We’ve got two guesses, so unless someone has a really good hunch we should hold out until some more evidence comes through.

ITIAH’s standing out as a Co-conspirator to me, drawing attention to his own cards, so I’d recommend looking if they’re ignoring any obvious possibilities. That doesn’t mean they didn’t include the right answer, but it might be a start.

Another thing to consider is that the co-conspirators and murderer don’t need to guess to get the game to finish according to the rules. So if someone is reluctant to guess, that might mean they’re culpable. And if we’re down to 3 guesses left at the end of the game, chances are that the murderer or co-conspirator is one of those people. And if someone makes a guess that doesn’t help narrow down the options, that also suggests assassin/conspirator.

Edited by MetaTerminal
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