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Oops, it seems as if I couldn't get on again before rollover! Sorry for the abstinence! Anyway, I was beginning to doubt my claim on Snipexe, even though I brought him up, that is why I didn't vote for him until after he spoke (then after he spoke, I didn't get on the Shard. 

Anyways, analysis post coming!

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I'll join the chorus of apologies.  I did read the thread several times yesterday, and then logged on to post just a few minutes after the end of the cycle *facepalm*. My bad.

I know most of what I have to say will sound like hindsight, and it certainly will be affected by that, but I'll post when I get home from work with some legitimate thoughts, I hope.

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Ok, so first off, With those that voted, visibly, the only manipulation that occurred is from people who voted on Snip. That doesn't mean much, it only helps us in determining roles, not alignment. Which would only help us if there's another copper ferring or a full feruchemist on the village team. Please remain hidden if that is you. Or, at least role claim to someone you have proven to be village. That way they can protect you. 

Other than that, six people didn't vote last cycle, and three of them didn't vote the cycle before that. Most of the excuses have already been made. Rand, Bort, me, and Jon have all offered apologies, and Snip is now dead. That leaves WfY. Why did you not vote? (I know D1 you were scrutinized for voting, and now I'm scrutinizing you for not voting.:P You'll soon learn that anyone can be scrutinized for anything in this game. :ph34r:)

I don't want to discuss too much into possible roles until it really does help the village to do so, because at this time, any role is NAI. But the Elims are going to be looking for any hint available to silently determine roles, and pick off those that they find threatening to their wincon. 

This was just a generic vote analysis post. I will go back and look at individual voting patterns (as much as can be determined, with only two votes per person, if that) as well as analysis of individual's analyses, to see if I can find any inconsistencies. 

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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Hey folks, some morning (my time) night (game time) thoughts on voting so far.

  • d1 we had 5 votes disappear.  d2 we had 2.  None of the dead people, unless I'm misreading the rules, had an ability that would result in votes disappearing
  • 5 people have voted on both lynches - I find this mostly NAI at this point - it's really easy to avoid being involved in lynch votes too much when there hasn't been an elim targeted yet
    • Xino
    • Kidpen
    • WfY
    • Phatterner
    • Araris
  • 4 people have technically missed both lynches AND voted both cycles.  Although each of them voted for Itiah d1.  Don't see anything there.
    • Stick
    • Alvron
    • Phatterner
    • Sart
  • Since Itiah technically had the most votes d1, here are the corresponding Coop votes that didn't vote for Snipexe d2
    • Steel (Phatterner)
    • Randuir (abstain)
  • 3 people have abstained both days.  All three have posted already tonight, so hopefully that's going to go away
    • Bort
    • CadCom
    • Jondesu
  • The following people have flown under the radar in that I didn't mention them elsewhere...  The remaining criteria available is abstain once, vote once.  Although both were d1 abstentions.  (in case you saw the original logic)
    • Rath
    • Ark

In conclusion...I'm not getting anything out of vote reads yet.

Edited by Rathmaskal
Fixed slight logic error on last bullet
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11 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Hey folks, some morning (my time) night (game time) thoughts on voting so far.

  • d1 we had 5 votes disappear.  d2 we had 2.  None of the dead people, unless I'm misreading the rules, had an ability that would result in votes disappearing

This makes me think that some people are either tapping, or planning on submitting a night action. Hopefully we can get some good information at the beginning of D3. 

Snip was an iron ferring, which does have vote some vote manipulation

 

I want to look at each of the different roles and abilities I know it's already been done, but maybe I can have a different perspective, plus it'll help me understand them better. With 19 people originally playing, and 9 roles(8 ferring, one full feruchemist) It's possible that there's at least two of each role. 

An iron Ferring could be responsible for one of the vote manip's D1, by filling. If they tapped this cycle, then they could be responsible for 1 or 2 of the difference between 5 vote manips and 2.  Snip was one of these

A steel ferring, if not part of the Synod or elim team would not be at any disadvantage yet, because there are no PM's yet. If they're part of either the Synod or the Elims, it's possible that the other members of that group don't even know that there is another member. Or it's possible that they do know because they've posted on one of the cycles. Actually, upon closer review, it looks like they just can't post during the day, when they're actually filling, so they would be able to post at night. I really hope that there is another steel ferrring (itiah was one) who plans on causing chaos and opening up 25 PM's sometime within the next couple of cycles. 

Tin will most likely have some vote manipulation D1, if they chose to fill. That vote would have been negated. If the tin ferring began with 2 charges, they will be able to determine someone's alignment tonight. 

Pewter ferrings won't be voting, if they want to fill their metalmind. Which makes Elan an interesting case. She voted D1, which means they weren't filling But then they were killed, so they weren't tapping either.  They may have been trying to do a double fill. IIRC, Elan mentioned that during D1, I'd have to go back and check though, and I don't really want to do that right now, as it's obviously not Alignment indicitive. (elan is dead). 

Zinc possibly explains a bit more of the vote manipulation. While storing, they have to vote, but it's negated. But they may not have stored D2, tapping or trying for other action. Zinc tapping kindof confuses me, maybe a zinc ferring could better explain it for me?

Brass doesn't necessarily cause vote manipulation, but a brass ferring would change their vote a lot. Tin scanners would probably be wise to not scan someone who changed their vote a lot one cycle, but didn't change their vote much this cycle. because they may just block the scan. Anyone wanting to hide from a tin scan would be wise to constantly change how many times they change their votes. WIFOM or IKYK has now been set up. You're welcome :ph34r:

Bronze doesn't do any vote manipulation. But they will never scan as tapping or filling to a day tin scan. This is important to remember. Night tin scans may be beneficial as well to see if anyone is trying to submit extra actions. But if anyone has been confirmed to take a single action at night it means that they aren't a filling or tapping bronze ferring. It doesn't mean they aren't a bronze ferring, just that they werent manipulating their metalmind

It is possible that there is another copper ferring out there, but it might be unbalanced if the village had 2 of those plus any full feruchemists. Copper is randomly redirected, but because coop didn't vote D1, his vote didn't affect vote manipulations any other copper ferrings may have had their vote redirected though. IMO a double tap of copper is useless until a 5-tap has already occurred. 

Full Feruchemists. Cheaters. :P In reality though, I would only focus on accomplishing one thing at a time. don't try to fill all of your metalminds. Unfortunately, the game won't be long enough or you won't survive long enough to do full-taps on more than one or 2 types of powers. 

Synod likely has at least one elim. Hopefully they can figure out a way to catch the elim in their midst and then find out who they are in the main thread. Their synod kill shouldn't be too affected by that though, because the majority will most likely be village. 

Also if any of you want more WIFOM or IKYK scenarios that could play out as a result of ferring mechanics I've got some for pretty much every ferring out there! Just let me know if you want me to share!:D

 

I haven't RPd yet this cycle. Maybe that can be my next post. 

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Okay, I'm going to start working down the list. I should get Rath, Xino, Bort and cadcom done today*, with the rest done next cycle if I don't die.

I'd been leaning village on Rath, but I'm starting to feel worse about him. There are two things about him that stand out to me in a negative way. First, he'd doinga  lot of condensing of information, but very little of actual analysis on this info. At first glance this makes it appear like he's being very involved, but on clsoer inspection he's not really providing any insights in the game.

The second thing is his frequent lampshading of things he's done or doing making him look suspicious. This post is a good example of what I mean: 

 

I think most villagers wouldn't really have their own appearance as a major worry, while its something elims would be constantly aware of. However, this post seems rather pure and villagery to me:

Wanting to avoid starting an early bandwagon certainly isn't an elim concern, and the thoughts he shared pointed to him paying attention and actually looking into people, rather than just looking for a 'victim-of-the-cycle'.

I'm keeping Rath at Neutral for now, but I really want to see more thoughts and fewer un-annotated vote summaries from him.

Xinoeph, has only posted three times so far. Something interesting caught my eye in his last post though.

Quote

Randuir, there was no other option when I voted. All the others had only one vote on them.

@xinoehp512, am I to understand that you base your decisions for voting on people on the amount of votes they have, rather than the arguments people have brought with their votes?

Another thing he brought up in that post was that he was first considering WfY, but then changed his mind. What I'd really have liked to see is the process behind this decision. he states he agrees with people's arguments against Snipexe without actually calling out with arguments he thought where most reasonable himself.

In short, what's making me suspicious of Xinoeph so far is that I'm seeing no sign of him actually thinking for himself, but rather that he's riding on the coat-tails fow hatever is popular at the moment. This is something elims could get away with more easily, but villagers really need to be doing their own work rather than hope that everyone else figures it out.

The one issue I've got with lynching Xinoeph in the next cycle is that the amount of info it'd get us would be very low because he has only posted a bit, but the low amount of game-solving I'm seeing in his posts is making me suspicious of him.

Bort's only posted twice, both times to apologize for not doing much. I can understand that he's been rather busy, but I really do hope to see more from him sometime soon.

I mostly like Cadcom's posts. He's inquisitive, he's asking questions and generally seems to be working to solve the game. I hope he'll start putting money where his mouth is and actually start voting sometimes soon. Apart from that, there isn't anything in particular that stood out about cadcom's posts.

Tl;dr: I've got a slight village lean on Cadcom, don't have any info on Bort, lean neutral on Rath (but expect that to consolidate one way or another next cycle), and am leaning elim on XInoeph.

 

*I'm working down the player list, and skipping over steel for now as he's the one player I've talked a lot about, and right now I want to get an idea of what everyone else is doing.

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I keep the rules open in another tab, Cadmium, and here's what they have to say about zinc:

 

-Tapping one charge lets a Ferring move a no-vote to any player, or negate a player’s vote. This can negate a previously negated vote.

-Tapping 3 charges lets a Ferring also move the vote of another player that voted, in addition to their regular vote manipulation.

I assume "regular vote manipulation" means the power from tapping one charge, so tapping three would let them effectively move two votes, as long as they pick someone who hasn't voted.

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31 minutes ago, randuir said:

I think most villagers wouldn't really have their own appearance as a major worry, while its something elims would be constantly aware of. However, this post seems rather pure and villagery to me:

Wanting to avoid starting an early bandwagon certainly isn't an elim concern, and the thoughts he shared pointed to him paying attention and actually looking into people, rather than just looking for a 'victim-of-the-cycle'.

I'm keeping Rath at Neutral for now, but I really want to see more thoughts and fewer un-annotated vote summaries from him.

I actually had a question about this post that you linked here. It's probably just me over-analyzing things, and I noticed it from when he first posted it, but I just went back and saw it again. 

There is something quirky about this post, and I don't know why it would be like that at all.

When he first started talking about steel, 

Quote

Steel's rationale for deciding not to defend accusations doesn't make a ton of sense

There's nothing alignment indicitive here but the word "Steel" is a Dark blue. but then the " 's" is black, and the rest of the sentence is black. It's almost not noticeable, but if you zoom in or copy and paste and make it bold it's more visible

Steel's rationale

I'm just confused because it's not red or green, used for voting, and it's not the typical blue used for out-of-game announcements, and it's almost not even recognizable as a seperate color

It's probably nothing, but I was just confused, and wanted to know the reason if there was one. If anything, it almost makes steel's name look metallic, and, dare I say, Steeley

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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Wow, less time than I expected I'd have.  I won't go back through, but I just want to note that the discussion so far has centered on players who I suspect are all very much village. According to Fifth Scholar's vote count:

Quote

Snipexe (4)
phattemer (2)
Xinoehp512 (1)
Kidpen (1)
Worldhopper from Yolen (1)

We have 11 living players who didn't have a vote on them.  My guess is that the Elims have been having a nice laid-back discussion so far and haven't been getting much attention to themselves, because of the feel of the conversations I've seen.  People have lots of votes flying around, but not much in the way of major reasoning (understandable on Day 2, when those votes were cast), but my guess is those 11 players are where we need to focus (although I would exclude myself from that list personally, knowing my own alignment and all, but I know ya'll can't).

My vote during the next cycle (which I'll try to get up in the morning, when I expect to have a little free time) will be going on one of Bort, CadCom, Alv, Phatt (edit: I'm dumb, they had a vote), Ark, or Araris, I think, but I have to go through the posts and firm up my suspicions.

Edited by Jondesu
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Valwyn, esteemed member of the Terris Synod and the most successful and lucrative rug merchant in the land, was most happy with the recent upturn in business. Of all the Spiked, he was the one who had truly settled into the aura of Tathingdwen, with his wares being peddled throughout the city, and his position as an influential, capitalistic aristocrat firmly entrenched. Most especially pleased was he when Marne had called the Synod into the safehouse with the rough wooden flooring, by his own suggestion. A full purse indeed made for a light heart, and Valwyn’s heart was especially light as he strolled down the quiet alleyways of Tathingdwen. His disguise was complete—there was little reason to suspect him, and with a hand on the lever of the Terris economy, and a hand on its political lever—the Synod—he would ensure the victory of the Lord Ruler.

As he walked towards his shop, a voice sounded behind him, a fell whisper carried by the night air. “Rug merchant,” came the sibilant hiss. Valwyn whirled around, scanning for the source of the rasping voice. “Did you ask for me?” he said, still looking for the intruder. He did not know who would dare disturb a Synod member on their nighttime walk, but the voice did not seem to harbour good intentions, and he would need to face his stalker. He turned, peering into the murky blackness of the night sky, seeing nothing.

The whisper came again, its origin obscured by the shadows facing him. “Rug merchant...” the whisper still came. Valwyn shuddered. “Face me directly!” he challenged, then immediately felt foolish. Of course the man would not face him directly. He was a nighttime killer as well, and a good killer never let their victim respond. He tensed, then tapped Pewter, his adrenaline fueling his enhanced bulk. Stepping forward, he began to prowl in the general direction of the voice, issuing from near his shop.

Rug merchant,” a vehement and insisting voice sounded from beside him, malice dripping from every syllable. Startled, Valwyn whirled, but he could not stop the keen steel blade, wielded by a pink-gloved man, from swinging out of the unnatural shadow and taking off his head. It rolled, coming to a stop beside the door.

A man with badly dyed pink leather gloves, from which a black steam rose and blended with the silver mist, stepped into the harsh glare of the streetlight surrounding him. His form radiated pure hatred, and his eyes were consumed by it. Slowly, the man removed his hood, bending down and plucking the object from underneath the forearm of Valwyn. He had known it, and this was mere confirmation. Working on the same Synod did not make one an ally.

Grinning with the face of one whose beliefs have been vindicated, a thin Pewter spike was raised slowly into the air, its black silhouette blocking the street lamp. “You can never trust a rug merchant,” Darrel hissed one last time, as his form faded back into the mists and smoke.


Izzy Dedyet knew that her fellow Synod members disapproved of her faith in the Gods of Luck and Chance. Though they never condemned her belief for fear of alienating a Full Feruchemist, Izzy’s colleagues had always pointedly ignored any suggestions that involved leaving matters up to chance. Worse, they had banned the sale of animal crackers after that one time a failed sacrifice had caused the fire to consume their meeting place. After weeks of waiting, the merchant from the Western dominance had finally arrived, bringing with him a full crate of animal crackers. A brief use of steel had been sufficient for Izzy to rush out to meet the merchant, then return without anyone noticing her absence.

As night fell, Izzy consulted her book. She was planning to kill a Spiked tonight, and intended to call upon the Gods of Luck and Chance to ensure that she made the right decision. Shockingly, the book provided no tips on determining whether a Terris was secretly a servant of the Lord Ruler. It did, however, provide a ritual designed to help its user complete a personal quest. Izzy decided that the utter annihilation of the spiked counted as a worthy mission.

Carefully, Izzy took five boxes of crackers out of the crate. Horse, dog, mistwraith, koloss, and skaa. Izzy frowned at that last one, but the book was very specific. A horse guaranteed speed, that Izzy would be able to kill her target before anyone else did. The dog to ensure that her victim would lack loyalty to the Synod. The mistwraith, both a symbol of fear and, along with Mistborn, the unquestioned rulers of the night. The koloss sacrifice would allow her to smash through any defense, though few but another full Feruchemist should be able to challenge her. Finally, the skaa, representing the insignificance of her life in comparison to the good of Tathingdwen. One by one, Izzy placed the five boxes of animal crackers strategically around the ritual pyre. The ritual was complete, and Izzy sat back to hope her hard work would pay off.

The Gods of Luck and Chance were subtle, never directly interfering in the lives of mortals, choosing instead to manipulate events beyond the reach of sapient thought. Nevertheless, as the fire began to expand and consume the animal crackers, Izzy remembered that Snip had died for making a quilt that, judging by the poor ferrings innocence, had been intended to frame the man. Yet, there was another shop in Tathingdwen that performed embroidery. Why commission a quilt to frame an innocent without acquiring a rug for the same purpose? Perhaps because the rug maker was evil. It was worth checking out, at any rate. Tapping speed, Izzy made her way to Valwyn’s shop.

Izzy arrived at the Pulling the Rug just in time to see a pink gloved man pull a spike out of Valwyn’s corpse. So the Gods of Luck and Chance had been right, after all. While she was here, she supposed she should search the store for any clues, or perhaps Valwyn’s fellow traitors. Tapping pewter, she walked up to the door and ripped it out of its hinges.

It was dark inside the Pulling the Rug, but the darkness was no match for tin-enhanced senses. Izzy strode confidently through the empty store, pausing when she heard a noise from the back of the shop. The stone door opened easily, revealing a wooden room with only a large circular stone block for furnishing. The room contained a solitary individual, though only their head and shoulders stuck out from the hole in the floor. Izzy recognized them at once, but didn’t have time to say anything before the figure grinned, set the room alight with a torch they had been holding in their right hand, then disappeared down the hole. Izzy tapped speed again in an attempt to catch up to the Spiked, but she was too slow. The spiked dragged the stone block back over the hole and disappeared underground. Tapping pewter in an attempt to move the block proved ineffective, as the block fit so smoothly there was no place for her to get a grip. She checked the way she’d come in, only to find it similarly shut. By now, the flames had consumed most of the room. The only safe place now was the stone trapdoor, so Izzy stood on it, jumped in the air, and tapped every last bit of weight stored in her ironminds. The floor collapsed underneath her, revealing the extensive cavern the Spiked had evidently excavated underneath Tathingdwen. After a brief moment of surprise, she began to fill her ironminds to cushion her fall, but she still landed far more heavily than a coinshot would have. As she attempted to regain her balance, a blade pierced her from behind. Izzy gasped inaudibly and tapped gold, but the wound failed to close around the oddly colored sword. The next blow took off her head.


Alvron was slain by the Spiked! He was a Village Full Feruchemist, and a member of the Synod! Thanks to Devotary for his death scene.

Araris Valerian was killed! He was a Spiked Pewter Ferring and Filthy Rug Merchant, and was a member of the Synod!

Day 3 has begun! It will end in seventy-two hours, on Sunday the 19th of August, at 9 PM EDT.

ora_1534726800.png

Player List:

1. Rathmaskal as Laksam, an ash sweeper from the Eastern streets
2. Xinoehp512 as Ereheman Tresni, a man with his priorities backwards
3. Steeldancer as Steel, the fastest sculpture of a squid wrought entirely in steel in all of Tathingdwen
4. Randuir as Zihel, a worldhopper looking for his twin brother
5. I think I am here as Itiah VI, a missionary on a mission Village Steel Ferring
6. Bort as Tee Mai, a tailor specialising in offensive clothing
7. Cadmium Compounder as Ethin Hallil, a cadmium Feruchemist and SCUBA diver
8. _Stick_ as Stick, President of the Tathingdwen Tautological Society of Tautology
9. Jondesu as Remart, a man back from vacation armed with vaguely ominous statements
10. Kidpen as HanTor, a lonely Kandra that’s definitely not Spiked, nope
11. Elandera as Era, an old woman who claims to have been alive before the reign of the Lord Ruler Village Pewter Ferring
12. Snipexe as Snip, a fabric cutter in the local quilt shop Village Iron Ferring

13. Worldhopper from Yolen as Tarin, a Sparker with a wonderful, awful idea
14. Alvron as Izzy Dedyet, who is not dead, feels happy, and thinks she'll go for a walk Village Full Feruchemist

15. Phatterner as Citona Vinid, a seemingly faithful follower of the Lord Ruler
16. Ark1002 as Kardik, a Full Feruchemist
17. Araris Valerian as Valwyn, an honest rug merchant Spiked Pewter Ferring; Rug Merchant
18. Coop772 as Irion, a Full Feruchemist with hidden potential Village Copper Ferring

19. Sart, a stuttering Nameless

Also, by the way, @Devotary of Spontaneity needs to post something so everyone can upvote her for all the work she’s put in to this game. She’s been a tremendous help with writeups and sending out PMs and logging actions for the entire game. If she doesn’t post anything soon, please indiscriminately upvote her recent posts. 

Edited by Fifth Scholar
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"Well, that's awesome! I mean, not about Izzy, but still. We got a Spiked! And it was the rug merchant, huh. Well, he tried to get the lynch off Citonia (Phattemer). And, well, Izzy (Alvron) was voting against them too. So, like, this is a pretty good case, right?"

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I'll do a full analysis of Araris' interactions later today. Is there any reason why Araris' killer shouldn't claim the deed? That person would become hard-cleared, which might make them a bit more of a target for the elims, but would also help with analysis.

Edited by randuir
grammar
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1 hour ago, randuir said:

Is there any reason why Araris' killer shouldn't claim the deed? That person would become hard-cleared, which might make them a bit more for a target for the elims, but would also help with analysis.

I think this is a good idea. We could use the protect on them during night turns so the elims won't target them. 

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