Long Game 48: The Terris Synod

[Steeldancer]

5 minutes ago, phattemer said:

I'm assuming that, had a villager put in the kill on Cadmium, they would have said so since doing so would un-clear Sart, as I specifically asked in my first post. 

Well I still think it would be a good lynch, and an informational lynch at this point is almost as important as killing an eliminator. I'm fine with being lynched as long as I would give information, but I'm not convinced me being lynched would be more informational than a lynch on Sart. We have 10 players, one of which (stick) I truly consider to be cleared. That leaves 9 players, 7 of which are village. I know I am village, so for my own purposes I will just reduce that to 8 players, 6 of which are village. We also have 4 players who are being relatively quiet. Xino, Ark, Jondesu and Bort, who I basically have no read on. My thought is that we have one eliminator among Phatt, Sart, Rand, and CadCom, and one among Xino, Ark, Jondesu and Bort. Of those, I'm relatively sure Phatt and Rand are village, even if Phatt does kind of jump on my suspicion radar. That leaves Sart and CadCom. So while I'll leave my vote on Sart, I think I could be convinced to change my vote to Cadmium if an argument is made that proves that he would be a better lynch. 

[Sart]

9 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

You're assuming an eliminator put in the kill on Cadmium Compounder. 
And your claim of action gives us further reason to kill Sart. However Sart flips, it will give us lots of information. If he turns village, it means you are almost definitely village. If he turns elim, you're likely elim, and I'm likely to be village. Even if Sart isn't the top suspicion, I'm pretty sure killing sart will be highly informational.  

You're tunneling on Phattemer. He was the first vote on Kidpen Cycle 3, although he waffled and ended up third on the vote count. I highly doubt he's an elim, although his logic for not suspecting me leaves a lot to be desired.

4 minutes ago, phattemer said:

I'm assuming that, had a villager put in the kill on Cadmium, they would have said so since doing so would un-clear Sart, as I specifically asked in my first post. 

You're forgetting that Rathmaskal or Worldhopper could have sent in the kill. My alibi isn't solid by any means, and thinking I'm clear is foolish of you. Still, at the very least, we know I didn't kill anyone last night. So someone else had to put in the mafia kill. The question is: who did?

5 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

So I just want to respond to this by arguing that there already was one Pewter Ferring on the Elim team, and one on the village team. If there is a third, then it's most likely they're a villager. No matter whose team I'm on, Wouldn't I have an interest to self-protect. Honestly I agreed with all the suspicions thrown last day cycle, and didn't have a reason to try to protect anyone else, because I had no idea who the Elims would try to attack.

Yes, Rand, my abstentions from voting D1 and D2 were intentional. Does that confirm your theory?

True, it's unlikely that there is a third Pewter Ferring. But, that doesn't stop you from being a Spiked Full Feruchemist, does it?

8 hours ago, Bort said:

But your vote was on Rand too. Why would you vote alongside your biggest suspicion?

I didn't suspect them Day 3. However, once Kidpen flipped, I suspected the people who didn't vote for him a lot more.

8 hours ago, randuir said:

I've seen several people say that they considered steeldancer cleared based on interactions with Kidpen, but I'm really not seeing it. Can someone give me some examples of these interactions?

The main thing I noticed was this post by Kidpen Day 2.

Quote

Man, I'm really terrible at not waiting until the end of the cycle to place my vote. I think there are a lot of people who haven't posted much, which is mildly suspicious. I also kinda have a gut read of Steel and Phattemer, but nothing worth voting for.I at least mostly agree with the Snip lynch, so I suppose I'll just go that way.

Also, still a bit of a newbie, what does hedging your votes mean?

That's obviously not a slam dunk, but it's enough to lessen my suspicion of Steel some.

So, in conclusion, there's no good reason to trust me, but I'll try to help the village as long as I can.

[Steeldancer]

1 hour ago, Sart said:

You're tunneling on Phattemer. He was the first vote on Kidpen Cycle 3, although he waffled and ended up third on the vote count. I highly doubt he's an elim, although his logic for not suspecting me leaves a lot to be desired

Did you read my analysis? I laid out pretty clearly that I'm more confident now that Phatt is village. Maybe, 65% sure he's village. Doesn't mean I would be averse to more confirmation that he is likely village, but I'm really not tunneling on Phatt anymore. If anything, he's tunneling on me. 

[DeTess]

7 hours ago, phattemer said:

I'm assuming that, had a villager put in the kill on Cadmium, they would have said so since doing so would un-clear Sart, as I specifically asked in my first post. 

I'd agree, if my call for the killer of araris to come forward hadn't gone unheard as well. I also think its dangerous to hardclear someone based on an assumption that there are 2 elims left. I think its likely its only 2, but I can't rule out there actually being 3.

edit:

12 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Yes, Rand, my abstentions from voting D1 and D2 were intentional. Does that confirm your theory?

Yeah, it does.

Edited August 22, 2018 by randuir

[Bort]

@Steeldancer - How come you consider Stick to be completely cleared? Did I miss something?

[phattemer]

I did consider they could have had five and thus three left, but the dead Spiked were Pewter and Zinc, two of the most powerful abilities. 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

                                                                        

[CadCom]

Ethin Hallil returned to Tathwingden's chamber of commerce after going out for lunch. He was holding the morning's edition of Terris Daily in his hands. Immediately he found Leidene "Leidene, I was not aware that you were also vying for the position of the Leader of the Synod. Tell me, What are your views on infrastructure? And why are they superior to those of Count Olaf?" 

After having a rousing discussion of politics and ethics with Leidene, Ethil no longer knew who to vote for, but for the time being, he chose to leave his vote where it was due to laziness. 

The real reason he had come this day was to petition the Synod for advertising space for his SCUBA business as well as a small business loan. Prior to the leak of information that Spiked had infiltrated the Synod, Ethin made good business with his SCUBA diving classes. Now no one was interested. He knew the best in town were working on that investigation. So he left it to them. Among the most prominent investigators, he knew that they all expected at least one of each other, and one of the remaining citizens. All Ethin could do was be cooperative, and hope the mob didn't lynch him for no good reason, so he decided to begin focusing on his business again. 

[DeTess]

Wait, if count olaf is still spiked, then any attempt to get him at the head of the synod is obviously a spiked plot. That means that Cadcom and phattemer must be elim spies! Cadcom poisoned his own drink! He's not a victim, he's a perpetrator! Wake up sheeple!

(cadcom, obviously, and a more serious post to follow in a bit)

 

[Bort]

Even before Devotary posted, I was thinking Olaf might not be trustworthy. I mean, he betrayed us, then he betrayed the Lord Ruler. I don't think he should be trusted with the Synod.

Leidene.

[DeTess]

"I'm voting Zihel for the synod. I believe my outside perspective will be invaluable to sorting out the red-on-blue mess you've got here."

 

Lynch vote tally

Cadcom(1): Sart

Sart(2): Steel, Bort

Steel(2): Phattemer, Randuir

 

The people still alive (not counting myself) are:

1. Xinoehp512
2. Steeldancer
3. Bort
4. Cadmium Compounder
5.  _Stick_ 
6. Jondesu
7.  Phatterner 
8. Ark1002 
9. Sart

Of these, I've got some reason to believe that Phattemer is probably innocent, given his push on Kidpen last cycle. As a consequence, I know that he's speaking the truth about role-blocking Sart, which speaks somewhat in Sart's favor. I'm not convinced that the attack on Cadcom was an elim move*, but I'm willing to wait until the end of  this cycle to see whether anyone comes forward to claim that deed before I push that one further.

Of the 7 remaining players, Ark, Bort, stick and Xinoeph have been pretty much Neutral, with very few posts, or posts that I couldn't find much alignment indicative in. @I'm pretty, @_Stick_ and @xinoehp512 haven't posted anything yet this cycle. I wouldn't be against seeing how any of these 4 flip, but the generic kill is a better tool for that than a lynch, imho.

That leaves Jondesu, Steeldancer and Cadcom. I've actually gotten a fairly village read on Cadcom so far. I don't think his role proves anything one way or another, but his overal activity and posts suggest that he's actively trying to solve the game.

Between Jondesu and steeldancer, I'm going to settle on Steeldancer for now. I quickly checked some of Jondesu's posts from previous games, and it seems to be true that he's less analytical now than I remember him being in the first couple of games I played with him. That doesn't clear him, but it moves his posts to firm NAI territory.

 

*Cadcom was fairly obviously a pewter ferring, and him starting to vote D3 was a clear indicator he had just gained enough to get a spare life, so I expect it'd have been fairly clear to the elim team that an attack on him would have been wasted, while I can see an individual villager missing those signs.

[phattemer]

Count Olaf, Leidene. Devotary, that newspaper is amazing.

Rand, I'd tend to think the same way as you in regards to Jondesu and the others, with the caveat that I have some additional information about a few that makes them less suspicious in my mind.

The order of suspicion off the top of my head:

Steeldancer, Jondesu, Xino, I'm Pretty, Ark, Bort, Stick, Cadmium, yourself.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

2 hours ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Tell me, What are your views on infrastructure? And why are they superior to those of Count Olaf?" 

Count Olaf is an unrepentant arsonist, a man who finds joy in seeing structures burn down around him. With him in charge, nothing would be safe. 

I believe that in the short term, we need to update our infrastructure in response to our current crises. As seen by the destruction of Pulling The Rug, the Spiked think nothing of using fire to destroy even their own property. To combat this threat, we must work to fireproof our buildings. New infrastructure projects should be built using non-flammable materials, such as stone. While no method can truly fireproof existing wooden structures, keeping the wood moist will make it more difficult to burn. Buildings aren't the only thing that needs to be fireproofed, as evidenced by the destruction of our gardens. Strategically placed stone and brick will make it harder for fires to spread. Creation of greenhouses with interior fire protection is an intriguing possibility. Long term, of course, we'll have to abandon Tathingdwen. Now that the Lord Ruler knows the location of the last surviving group of Feruchemists, we'll never be safe here. Preparations for migration and the construction of a new village can begin as soon as we deal with our current Spiked threat.

 

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, randuir said:

*Cadcom was fairly obviously a pewter ferring, and him starting to vote D3 was a clear indicator he had just gained enough to get a spare life, so I expect it'd have been fairly clear to the elim team that an attack on him would have been wasted, while I can see an individual villager missing those signs.

Yes, I am a pewter ferring. And while it's not a guaranteed, I doubt the Elim team would have two Pewter ferrings. Which should soft clear me. 

17 hours ago, Sart said:

True, it's unlikely that there is a third Pewter Ferring. But, that doesn't stop you from being a Spiked Full Feruchemist, does it?

No, it doesn't but can I argue that even though Pewter is useful, It isn't the most useful ability to an eliminator team? I know that it might be subjective, but If I were a full feruchemist, I would use my abilities to try to put in more actions, or negate votes against elims, or scan for roles among others to try to kill off more powerful people. 

[Bort]

Well, Sart has answered my questions, and makes sense, so I'm willing to drop my vote on him.

I'm also willing to add my vote to see how Steeldancer flips. I haven't had time to keep my usual notes sheet, so have nothing definite on him beyond my gut feeling while reading his posts, but with other people having suspicions too, it's enough to act on.

[Sart]

15 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Yes, I am a pewter ferring. And while it's not a guaranteed, I doubt the Elim team would have two Pewter ferrings. Which should soft clear me. 

No, it doesn't but can I argue that even though Pewter is useful, It isn't the most useful ability to an eliminator team? I know that it might be subjective, but If I were a full feruchemist, I would use my abilities to try to put in more actions, or negate votes against elims, or scan for roles among others to try to kill off more powerful people. 

Just to be clear, did you gain an extra life, or did you just protect yourself Cycle 3?

[DeTess]

6 minutes ago, Sart said:

Just to be clear, did you gain an extra life, or did you just protect yourself Cycle 3?

I think this question should remain unanswered. If he used an extra life, he's now vulnerable, if he's using his built-up reserves at a rate of one per cycle, he'll be very difficult to kill for the rest of the game. I'd prefer it if those wishing him harm would have to take a second shot to find out.

Edited August 22, 2018 by randuir

[Sart]

12 minutes ago, randuir said:

I think this question should remain unanswered. If he used an extra life, he's now vulnerable, if he's using his built-up reserves at a rate of one per cycle, he'll be very difficult to kill for the rest of the game. I'd prefer it if those wishing him harm would have to take a second shot to find out.

Fair enough. While I still think it's possible that he was storing Pewter and Bronze, I still can't think of a good reason why he would protect himself by tapping one charge. So, I'll remove my vote on Cadmium Compounder. I've already pointed out why I don't think Steeldancer is evil, so I'll be avoiding that particular lynch train. I would rather not vote for a new player, and so I'm not very suspicious of Ark. That only leaves one suspect. I really don't like the list Jondesu keeps using. It seems arbitrary at best, as it includes phattemer and randuir, who I both consider fairly village. His main exoneration was him voting for Cadmium last cycle, but if Cadmium is telling the truth, that's not a point in his favor.

[+Ark1002]

I haven't been able to get on lately, what have I missed?

[Stick.]

Sorry I'm late, but first things first. I was going through the thread, and I stumbled across this:

Quote

Steeldancer  Posted Saturday at 04:26 AM

Araris is like a buttered seal

Buttered seal. How did I not see this before.

Anyway

I'm not sure how I feel about this lynch going on here. Early in C2, the whole thing with Steel gut voting for Rand and Araris jokingly following him suddenly seems important now. I could see it being a sort of distancing technique between elim!Araris and elim!Rand (and I believe somebody has already brought this up in the past), but it's nothing more than a possibility bc I would rather believe Rand's village due to his posts and vote on Kidpen. Speaking of which I'd like to note that somewhere during C1 Rand said something about at least one of Kidpen and Steel being elims if Itiah flipped elim. Perhaps that should make me trust in Rand's villager-ness more bc of how he expressed suspicion of Kidpen, however it could also be seen as Rand subtly defending Kidpen in a way, knowing that itiah would flip village. Whatever though, I think I'm reading too much into it now that I type it out. Back to the three quick Rand votes on D2. Below is Steel's reaction to two other votes placed on Rand after his:

Quote

Um, ok why did two more people vote on Rand? Araris, could you explain your vote? 

Um, I’m afraid I don’t have much of an explanation for why I find you a bit suspicious? Just this uncomfortable feeling about you in my gut. I would prefer to vote on someone I have a harder reason to vote on, though. So I’ll change my vote Rand Araris . Not sure I like how you just followed me on Rand for no reason. I was hoping for alternate Lynch targets, not a following of votes. 

Keeping Araris' alignment in mind, this specific post just doesn't seem like an elim's to me. Not superficially, at least. Though I will say that Steel declaring me as almost certainly village smells of pocketing to me. 

TLDR: I'm unsure about the Steel lynch

Moving on to CadCom. Thing is, there was some clear suspicion on him from the thread. The elims shouldn't have felt the need to waste one of their actions sending a kill on him when there was already a chance he'd get lynched by us. 

On 21/08/2018 at 9:12 PM, phattemer said:

I will say this much: the Synod attempted to kill Sart last night, but we were very unlucky. As far as I know, there was no village kill directed at Cadmium, and the fact that they were protected is not suspicious.

So the Synod had one of its members roleblock Sart, and another to send a kill order on him? That's harsh.:P Anyhow, I find it very odd that you're just assuming (rather confidently) here that nobody from the village sent in the kill on CadCom. I know that nobody has claimed to have attacked him but this is quoted from your first post this turn. You couldn't have possibly known that it wasn't a villager that attacked him at this point in the turn. Don't take this the wrong way, I'm still reading you village. Just putting my thoughts out there.

Yeah so I'm kinda puzzled rn cuz every lynch seems like a bad choice so I'm just gonna think for a little while longer 

[xinoehp512]

Lynch vote tally

Jondesu(1): Sart

Sart(1): Steel

Steel(3): Phattemer, Randuir, Bort

Synod Vote tally

Leidene(2):Phattemer, Bort

Count Olaf(1):CadCom

Rand(1):Rand

Looking at the votes I think I'm going to put my vote on Steel for now. Before I vote for the Synod, I want to see if Count Olaf has a defense.

[Fifth Scholar]

Count Olaf would indeed like to respond. 

First, the misinformation being circulated in the Terris Daily, which has the ring of a cheap tabloid and not a legitimate source of news, is strongly condemned by Olaf’s campaign. Without the identification of the anonymous Terriswoman who is baselessly slandering an upright and honest man, the entire article which claims to relay a true event to the Terris people instead smacks of falsehood and deceit. The accusations levelled against Olaf have no grounds; Olaf was on his way back from a Synod meeting last night, and contacted an assassin which the “upright” Leidene supported the use of. After consulting with and paying the assassin by the orders of the Synod, Olaf walked past Marne’s old hideout, on the other side of the city from where Laksam was murdered, and after stopping to chat with an old acquaintance proceeded directly to bed. The newspapers circulating are intended solely to spread false news in the wake of a legitimate populist uprising in favor of an unconventional outsider, who will strengthen and empower the Synod against the Spiked who remain embedded among our ranks. The Olaf campaign personally suspects high levels of skulduggery, and the partisan news outlet which has a clear bias towards Leidene will recieve the full force of a Synod investigation. Any attempts to spread lies during this uncertain time should be met with suspicion and condemnation of the persons involved. 

Regarding Olaf’s stance on infrastructure: 

First of all, arson is a noble pursuit. Were it not for the tireless efforts of the arsonists among us in day-to-day society, old and abandoned buildings would fall into disrepair, eventually collapsing and perhaps injuring or killing many. Abandoned plots of land would also become small jungles, needing significant effort to clear, and becoming quite useless to the public. Arson solves these issues, removing outmoded or old infrastructure speedily and with limited cost, and laying the ground for a fresh start once the old and obsolete structures have been removed. However, a focus on infrastructure when there are Spiked lurking among us, added to the fact that we will, as Leidene acknowledged, need to desert Tathingdwen in the near future, is a foolish waste of time and resources. A leader who will vigourously hunt for the Spiked and eliminate them is needed more than one who seeks to tend to economic issues when our people are being slaughtered as we stand here debating. A vote for Olaf is a vote for reliable leadership in the Synod, and a hunt for the Spiked personally fueled by a man who knows the agonising terrors of being among their number, and escaped that tortuous state of being by his own free will, a truly difficult feat to accomplish. 

Finally, just look at a different picture of Olaf as he shelters these three poor orphans. Isn’t that what we should look for in any leader: a heart? 

[Bort]

Reading that, Olaf turned into Trump for a while. Then the picture made me realise I was wrong.  He's actually the Demon Headmaster. 

[Steeldancer]

Oh great you’ve piled on me while I’ve been through a cave, massive trees, and a hive of bees. Just be aware I’m a waste of a Lynch, you’re not going to get a lot of information from my Lynch, otherwise I really wouldn’t care as much. 

Rand, you say I’m less analytical? That’s mainly due to time. Last night was the first time I really had time to do analysis, given that I’m on vacation. 

Probably wasn’t my best played game, but I’m not spiked. Take note of how some of the less actives are coming out of the woodwork, I would bet money that bort or Xino- personally I lean Xino- is elim. 

Out of self preservation, I’m going to vote Sart Jondesu . I was initially hesitant to trust Sart, but I’m feeling better. On top of his defense, I feel like an elim Sart would hop on my bandwagon. And Jondesu is certainly a better Lynch than me. 

It probably doesn’t help my case, but I’m a village Brass ferring (I think? It’s the heat/extremely useless one). I only used one charge, and haven’t even bothered to fill it. I’ve put in kills on people I felt are suspicious every cycle, but not a single one has gone through so I’m not sure how useful I’ve been. 

Edited August 23, 2018 by Steeldancer
Full disclosure

[xinoehp512]

Hmm, who to vote for... eh, flip a coin. Count Olaf it is!

Steeldancer, why do you think I am suspicious? I've been busy and haven't been able to get on much or devote a whole lot of time to this.