Long Game 48: The Terris Synod

[Steeldancer]

Heck yes! Analysis time! I agree with Sart, I’m going after phattemer .

[CadCom]

Analysis of Araris: 

D1: Starts with a poke vote on Steel, removes vote after Steel pops in. Begins discussion about Night action. Later, Phatt votes for Araris, At the time a vote was placed on him, no one had more than one vote, He placed the second vote on Itiah. The first person on Itiah was Sart. We know that Itiah and Coop were both village, so after the lynch seemed to be heading toward those two, the remaining elims did not need to continue voting for those. Just because they didn't need to, doesn't mean that they didn't I'd soft clear the last couple of votes for either candidate. 

Later on during the Lynch, Phattemer removed (his?) vote from Araris, after it was clear he was no longer a going to be lynched. That seems typical of something a villager would do. So if phattemer is experienced, which apparently he is, and is just returning from a haitus, then it would be smart for him to do if he was elim. (But now we're entering into WIFOM scenarios)

N1: There is basically no discussion that I saw that referred to Araris, or done by Araris.  

D2: Araris joins the quick (apparently) joke bandwagon on Rand that was started by Steel. Rand responds with "Araris, I figuratively don't even" Then Steel placed a vote on Araris, asking for an explanation. Araris immediately removes it from Rand. This makes it look like he was trying to stop any serious thought on Rand as a lynch target. 

Later, Rand during his analysis, sort of defends Araris, as well as many of the others. He did focus on addressing the possible reasons everyone voted on Itiah, but it seems like he put extra effort into discussing Araris, making him look suspicious, but not too suspicious. By the end of the post, Xinoehp was Rand's top suspicion, which is exactly who the person before him voted for. It's as if Rand wanted to make araris suspicious, while at the same time, cementing the vote on another person. 

Rath also mentions that Araris tends to get killed early in games, suggesting that araris has a suspicious playstyle, which often results in him getting killed, even when he's villager. 

Stick mentions a that he wanted to vote on Araris D1 for no particular reason. then goes on to explain that reason. 

During d2, there's also a little bit of discussion that araris was involved in about the difference between the village doc last MR, and the Synod doc this game.

 

TL;DR? I am kindof suspicious of Rand, and also Phattemer. For now, I will place my vote on Randuir. (look everyone! I voted! Yay!) But Phattemer is a close second, and if it comes down to Phattemer, and someone other than Rand, then I will change my vote to help solidify a lynch on him. 

 

-RP-

Ethin hadn't gotten any business since he re-opened after returning to Tathwingden. Literally none. Business cannot grow without customers, and it seemed all his potential customers were too focused on the current debacle of spiked infiltrators in the Synot. So Ethin decided to start a heavy advertising campaign. He got business cards, and began passing them out to everyone. He made flyers, and posted them on every public board, and street corner. He also decided to make a large sign and hang it up in front of his building. Many terris did not approve of too many bright colors, but Ethin was young, he was a modernist. He decided to add lot's of color to his sign, and when he saw the final product he absolutely loved it! While SCUBA diving in the Southern Dominance, he saw many new things, and he decided to incorporate some of them in his design. As the background, he had a Pink Reef, with green quagga mussels, and the extremely rare orange sea turtle that he was lucky enough to spot on his trip. Surrounding it all, He placed a family symbol, a scarlet ring, that represented prosperity, and a time before the lord ruler seized control as he did. 

He hung the sign right above his door, then, feeling proud with his new advertising campaign, he stood outside to greet anyone who passed by. Today was going to be a great day!

My RP's aren't the best (IMO) but I am willing to RP with anyone willing 

Edited August 17, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder

[DeTess]

Alright, let's take a look at Araris (I know cadcom just did this as well, but I'd prefer to do do my own analysis before going into those by others).

First, outgoing interactions (IE: araris doing stuff to other people):

D1

His first thing of note is a quick on/off vote ons teel during D1. It's potentially a pretty safe moment to do some distancing. Certainly he wouldn't be expecting Steel to be inactive during C1, so it doesn't make much sense as a poke vote.

He also mentions that he reckons there's 1-2 elims in the synod doc. We now know he was one of those elims. I reckon he's probably the only one, as it'd be in his interest to guess high if there was only one, and emphasis there likely only being one if there where two. That way, if he died, the synod would be suspicious if they didn't have to be, or become complacent when they should still be suspicious.

He votes on ITIAH citing his comment about the Synod, and we know how that ended.

D2

He starts with a seemingly random vote on me, and I find myself somewhat in agreement with cadcom on that front. He certainly couldn't have expected to lynch me with that, and it only served to underscore the lack of logical base for that vote-train. I don't know what Araris hoped to achieve here (maybe Cadcoms reaction is the one he was hoping to cause in case he died, though the moves seems just a bit too sneaky for that), and I'll leave it up to others that don't have my personal bias to decide what they think of this move.

Later in the day he does some Analysis. I think he ends up with me as Neutral, but I'm not quite sure. He mentions WfY in passing, but immediately starts discussing snipexe, leaving WfY as nothing more than a name-drop for completeness sake (though he manages to still write a paragraph in which he says basically nthoign about WfY).

Lastly he village-reads Sart, mostly based on Sart's work to get ITIAH killed. I think this is a bit odd, given that ITIAH ended up village. Sart's role in that in and off itself is fairly NAI in my opinion, so I wonder if there's more to it.

Lastly, he called out to those voting on Phattemer, asking them why they where voting on him while seemingly acting like he was interested in a Phattemer lynch. Asking people to better explain their vote is definitely one way to soft-defend someone, as it forces people to re-evaluate their vote, and gives those with an interest in keeping their target alive something they can refute.

In conclusion, I can see reasons to be suspicious of Sart, Phattemer and WfY based on Araris' interactions with them.

I'll have the incoming interactions up in a bit.

Edited August 17, 2018 by randuir
grammar

[CadCom]

I just want to verify, 

@I'm pretty You were Ark1002, correct? It can get confusing when people choose to change their usernames, and I just want to make sure that's correct. Someone changed usernames halfway through my first game too, and that was a bit confusing.

 

[DeTess]

The Valerian files

Incoming itneractions

C1

Araris had some interactions with Elandera D1, but I'm not going to go into those, because we already know how Elandera flipped.

The first thing of note was Phattemers vote on Araris. It happened towards the end of the day, but before the main wagons got started. In content, it could ahve been a D1 distancing vote, given that it wasn't accompanied by a case against Araris, but its timing is a bit off for that. I'd have expected a distancing vote to either hap[pen reallly early, or after another bandwagon had properly started.

C2

During C2, steel flipped his vote to Araris after he'd hopped onto the bandwagon on me. Based on this vote, and him alter switching to Phattemer, I'd say steel and phattemer are unlikely to both be team-mates of Araris.

next is my own analysis of Araris. I won't discuss that here, as it's not particularly useful, but I'll get back to it later in this post as a rebutal of what Cadcom said.

Next is Rath. Rath mentions Araris' erratic votes, but also that Araris tends to get killed early as a villager. This could be a soft defense, but its also true. I'm not sure how much that particular observation contributed to the conversation at the time, as suspicion for araris wasn't exactly at an all-time high at that time.

Phattemer mentions that his vote on Araris during C1 was meant as a joke. However, he started the post in which he voted for Araris with an explanation of why it is important to have a serious lynch discussion with the intention to kill. Throwing a complete joke-vote after that seems odd.

Stick mentions that she'd considered voting for Araris D1, but didn't. She also mentions she had no particular reason for wanting to do that (rather than 'a gut feeling' or something similarly nebulous). If this info had been volunteered with no prompting it'd have been somewhat suspicious, but I did ask stick who else she'd considered voting for D1.

Rath and WfY both vote on snipexe based on Araris reasoning. This could be an elim team wagoning together, but Araris argument wasn't bad, so this doesn't make me particularly suspicious of them.

And that's pretty much it. based on incoming interactions I'm somewhat suspicious of Phattemer, as well as slightly suspicious of Rath.

 

Now regarding my own analysis of Araris back during C2. On rereading it, I can see how Cadcom would come to his conclusion (especially given that last time I was an elim I got caught because I slipped up in a manner he's accusing me of doing again), but I think he's missing that I actually brought in new info. When I was mulling over elim!Elenion last time I was an elim I was mostly just rehashing the existing accusation and finding ways to spin it to not quite an elim read. When I was dealing with Araris I was actively bringing in new arguments against him, which elim!rand would have no reason to do (and a number of reasons not to do).

[phattemer]

2 hours ago, randuir said:

ions that he reckons there's 1-2 elims in the synod doc. We now know he was one of those elims. I reckon he's probably the only one,a s it'd be in his interest to guess high if there was only one, and emphasis there likely only being one if there where two. That way, if he died, the synod would be suspicious if they didn't have to be, or become complacent when they should still be suspicious.

I'm one of three remaining Synod members- the other two in there can confirm if they like, but I'll understand if not given they may not want to reveal themselves. If someone claims I'm not, either I'm Spiked or they are.

Given rand's analysis and the fact that there were originally only six of us, I think it's definitely not a good idea to kill the only remnants of the ruling council we have left (:P).

I'm personally still suspicious of Steeldancer, not least because they seem so determined to vote for me.

Steeldancer:

D1: fluff and stuff

was voted on by Araris- it's a common ploy for elims to vote for each other early on to split suspicion if one of them gets found out. Of course, I myself voted for Araris briefly that day, and it's entirely possible it was at random.

Eventually votes for Coop, who was the copper ferring. Personally, I thought it was pretty obvious what role he was claiming, and it would have been very easy for Spiked to also realize such and swing the vote in his direction.

Mentions they dislike the bandwagon, and prognosticates that elims wouldn't do something like that so both are likely to be innocent. It turns out to be correct.

N1: Suggests no information was gained from the first lynch

Claims they didn't take Coop's claim seriously, seeing it as a last-ditch attempt to survive. I can see this being true, but his claim read very true to me personally. 

"Heh why am I even bothering to defend myself? If I'm an eliminator, and on Itiahs team like Rand thinks, then it doesn't matter what I say, my goal was to save itiah. If I'm villager, I'm telling the truth about my motives and shouldn't feel obliged to explain them anymore. Typical of me, constantly overexplaining myself."

 D2: Starts with a gut vote for Rand, which is followed in quick succession by WFY and Araris. Steeldancer appears quite taken aback, and switches to Araris.

Another person mentioned Steeldancer has been a successful serial killer and been elim several times. If they were newer, I'd be much less suspicious, but these posts don't feel like an experience player's village style.

Player List:

1. Rathmaskal- Didn't say much D1 because of IRL things, has done a lot of vote counts and started the bandwagon on Snip (he was the second vote) My thoughts: Providing information like an unannotated vote count can go either way: is he an elim trying to build cred or a villager trying to be helpful? He does mention he feels a bit like the fall guy for the Spiked on the snip lynch, and I'll give him an innocent read for now.
2. Xinoehp512- has voted for Itiah ("I know this is a bandwagon, but I don't have any other ideas") and then for Snip. Has no other posts. I'm going to go ahead and say I find that very suspicious, and put Xino as a top candidate for Spiked.
3. Steeldancer- v.s.
4. Randuir- Did the original role analysis, which, much like a vote count, is an easy way to contribute without arousing any potential suspicion. Made the original vote on Coop, which led to his death. Did a vote count and exhorted people to vote. The next day, pointed out the close vote gives us quite a lot of information. Due to the nature of the interaction with Steeldancer, I don't think it's likely both of them are Spiked. Notes which people voted on Coop after his claim- Kidpen and Steel were the two not up for the chopping block. Was the target of the three random votes at the start of Day 2. Rand's had quite a bit of great analysis and has been more active and in the thick of the things than I'd generally expect an elim to be. Almost certain he's village.
5. I think I am here  Village Steel Ferring
6. Bort- said they've been busy and would be on more this weekend, hopefully. There's nothing to look at here, so let's move along.
7. Cadmium Compounder- was away Day 1. Asked what caused the response to save Itiah. Was suspicious of Snip early on, but waited to hear from him before voting. Seems fine, hard to read from not a lot of volume.
8. _Stick_ - Raised concerns about the generic kill action, which he said was very likely to hit a villager. Hopped onto the ITIAH wagon. Later did a long analysis post being suspicious of Kidpen, who'll we'll get to in a moment. Also mentioned they were suspicious of WfY. Stick seems fine, a solid village read from me.
9. Jondesu- has only posted anything of substance once, last day. Suggested players who had never been voted for may be suspicious. An interesting idea, but also could very well be an attempt to relieve pressure on fellow Spiked.
10. Kidpen- Says WfY's comments were NAI, then votes for Coop saying his claim was overly vague. However, he also said it was obvious what he was going for. He's one of the most suspicious I have, and I'd actually place him above Steeldancer after reading everything. Worth noting he said he had "gut reads" on me and Steeldancer.
11. Elandera  Village Pewter Ferring
12. Snipexe  Village Iron Ferring

13. Worldhopper from Yolen- It's her first game, and any suspicious activity could be chalked up to such. If she were in an Elim doc, I'd think some of the things she's done wouldn't have happened (the second vote on Rand D2), so I'll say tentative village.
14. Alvron Village Full Feruchemist

15. Phatterner
16. Ark1002\ or I'm pretty- hasn't done anything of note, I believe it's also their first game. Thinks WfY is suspicious. No idea, potential village or possible Spiked.
17. Araris Valerian  Spiked Pewter Ferring; Rug Merchant
18. Coop772  Village Copper Ferring

19. Sart, Posted a vote count and voted for ITIAH as the first one to do so. Voted for Snip as well, and did another no-info vote count. Said they suspected Xino. I am highly suspicious of Sart, and he's definitely in my fantasy Spiked roster.

 

TL;DR Sart, Steeldancer, Kidpen bad.

Whoops, meant to include my vote: Kidpen

Edited August 17, 2018 by phattemer

[DeTess]

@phattemer, did Alvron say anything in the Synod doc that'd reveal his identity and/or role? I'm wondering if the elims just got lucky hitting a full feruchemist, whether they got that info from the synod or whether they have someone capable of using tin.

[phattemer]

No, there weren't any role revelations or even hints in the doc until after Araris was dead.

[xinoehp512]

@randuir, @phattemer sorry for not posting much. I'm still in the phase of trying to get the hang of this, plus I'm not able to get on a whole lot. Hopefully the extra time for this cycle means that I'll actually get to make some meager analysis.

[Steeldancer]

5 hours ago, phattemer said:

I'm one of three remaining Synod members- the other two in there can confirm if they like, but I'll understand if not given they may not want to reveal themselves. If someone claims I'm not, either I'm Spiked or they are.

Given rand's analysis and the fact that there were originally only six of us, I think it's definitely not a good idea to kill the only remnants of the ruling council we have left (:P).

I'm personally still suspicious of Steeldancer, not least because they seem so determined to vote for me.

Steeldancer:

D1: fluff and stuff

was voted on by Araris- it's a common ploy for elims to vote for each other early on to split suspicion if one of them gets found out. Of course, I myself voted for Araris briefly that day, and it's entirely possible it was at random.

Eventually votes for Coop, who was the copper ferring. Personally, I thought it was pretty obvious what role he was claiming, and it would have been very easy for Spiked to also realize such and swing the vote in his direction.

Mentions they dislike the bandwagon, and prognosticates that elims wouldn't do something like that so both are likely to be innocent. It turns out to be correct.

N1: Suggests no information was gained from the first lynch

Claims they didn't take Coop's claim seriously, seeing it as a last-ditch attempt to survive. I can see this being true, but his claim read very true to me personally. 

"Heh why am I even bothering to defend myself? If I'm an eliminator, and on Itiahs team like Rand thinks, then it doesn't matter what I say, my goal was to save itiah. If I'm villager, I'm telling the truth about my motives and shouldn't feel obliged to explain them anymore. Typical of me, constantly overexplaining myself."

 D2: Starts with a gut vote for Rand, which is followed in quick succession by WFY and Araris. Steeldancer appears quite taken aback, and switches to Araris.

Another person mentioned Steeldancer has been a successful serial killer and been elim several times. If they were newer, I'd be much less suspicious, but these posts don't feel like an experience player's village style.

Player List:

1. Rathmaskal- Didn't say much D1 because of IRL things, has done a lot of vote counts and started the bandwagon on Snip (he was the second vote) My thoughts: Providing information like an unannotated vote count can go either way: is he an elim trying to build cred or a villager trying to be helpful? He does mention he feels a bit like the fall guy for the Spiked on the snip lynch, and I'll give him an innocent read for now.
2. Xinoehp512- has voted for Itiah ("I know this is a bandwagon, but I don't have any other ideas") and then for Snip. Has no other posts. I'm going to go ahead and say I find that very suspicious, and put Xino as a top candidate for Spiked.
3. Steeldancer- v.s.
4. Randuir- Did the original role analysis, which, much like a vote count, is an easy way to contribute without arousing any potential suspicion. Made the original vote on Coop, which led to his death. Did a vote count and exhorted people to vote. The next day, pointed out the close vote gives us quite a lot of information. Due to the nature of the interaction with Steeldancer, I don't think it's likely both of them are Spiked. Notes which people voted on Coop after his claim- Kidpen and Steel were the two not up for the chopping block. Was the target of the three random votes at the start of Day 2. Rand's had quite a bit of great analysis and has been more active and in the thick of the things than I'd generally expect an elim to be. Almost certain he's village.
5. I think I am here  Village Steel Ferring
6. Bort- said they've been busy and would be on more this weekend, hopefully. There's nothing to look at here, so let's move along.
7. Cadmium Compounder- was away Day 1. Asked what caused the response to save Itiah. Was suspicious of Snip early on, but waited to hear from him before voting. Seems fine, hard to read from not a lot of volume.
8. _Stick_ - Raised concerns about the generic kill action, which he said was very likely to hit a villager. Hopped onto the ITIAH wagon. Later did a long analysis post being suspicious of Kidpen, who'll we'll get to in a moment. Also mentioned they were suspicious of WfY. Stick seems fine, a solid village read from me.
9. Jondesu- has only posted anything of substance once, last day. Suggested players who had never been voted for may be suspicious. An interesting idea, but also could very well be an attempt to relieve pressure on fellow Spiked.
10. Kidpen- Says WfY's comments were NAI, then votes for Coop saying his claim was overly vague. However, he also said it was obvious what he was going for. He's one of the most suspicious I have, and I'd actually place him above Steeldancer after reading everything. Worth noting he said he had "gut reads" on me and Steeldancer.
11. Elandera  Village Pewter Ferring
12. Snipexe  Village Iron Ferring

13. Worldhopper from Yolen- It's her first game, and any suspicious activity could be chalked up to such. If she were in an Elim doc, I'd think some of the things she's done wouldn't have happened (the second vote on Rand D2), so I'll say tentative village.
14. Alvron Village Full Feruchemist

15. Phatterner
16. Ark1002\ or I'm pretty- hasn't done anything of note, I believe it's also their first game. Thinks WfY is suspicious. No idea, potential village or possible Spiked.
17. Araris Valerian  Spiked Pewter Ferring; Rug Merchant
18. Coop772  Village Copper Ferring

19. Sart, Posted a vote count and voted for ITIAH as the first one to do so. Voted for Snip as well, and did another no-info vote count. Said they suspected Xino. I am highly suspicious of Sart, and he's definitely in my fantasy Spiked roster.

 

TL;DR Sart, Steeldancer, Kidpen bad.

Whoops, meant to include my vote: Kidpen

Just a quick note- the whole reason I’ve been a successful player is because I don’t follow the norms. And it doesn’t always work either. The very game right after I won as a serial killer, I was a serial killer of sorts again, and even though I had allies and played (what I feel) to be some of the most superior playing I’ve ever played, I still got trapped and eliminated. Also, fun fact- I’m better at remaining unsuspicious when I’m evil than when I’m village. Either I figure out a way to get hard cleared, or I eventually get lynched. Which is why I’m still working on my village play style. 

Of course, I could be saying all this as an elaborate redirection of suspicion, which I have done before (lol), but I’m being genuine. Doesn’t mean you have to believe me, either. 

Now that I’m finally at a hotel early enough to make use of the WiFi, I’ll do some analysis of my own of araris’s interactions. I must say, I’m glad we got him early on. Araris is like a buttered seal, hard to catch in suspicion, but will happily eat you in turn. Also makes a great ally when he’s village, but I’ve seen him avoid suspicion really well before so pinning him early will be great in the long run. 

[Jondesu]

So I'm back online, after not getting the morning like I thought (I was able to read on mobile, but didn't feel it was worthwhile posting at the time with what I could have put together).

I said my vote would fall on Bort, CadCom, Alv, Ark/I'm Pretty, or Araris.  I feel somewhat vindicated to find that one of my list was in fact an Elim!  Props to whoever took Araris out.

One of my list also wasn't an Elim, but of course I knew they couldn't all be.  Of the remaining three there, though, I feel like it's very likely another Elim remains in that group (and yes, I know this is more gut than actual analysis), and of the three, I'm more worried about Bort flying under the radar, but they're away for the moment and I don't like voting on people who have explained absences.  I'm Pretty is new, so while I'm willing to place a vote Day 3, that also means the lack of votes or even much discussion could be from them being new, and they are being discussed right now.

Rand I do find somewhat worrying now, but I have to keep in mind my usual impression of him is wary, and Steel feels like he's trying to act like he's playing normal, and yet, of course he is playing about the way I normally expect, so I got nothing on him.

I think I'll stick to my guns and vote for Cadmium Compounder for now, for the originally stated reasons of thinking the Elims are hiding at least another member in that group, but I'm willing to be swayed to vote for Bort or someone else since the reasoning on any one particular player is weak.

[Steeldancer]

Ok, after looking at araris posts; and not having really paid attention to the longer analyses done on him already, 2 posts stick out. The one where he hops on Rand after I voted early on him in the cycle. I doubt Araris would risk a bandwagon developing on a teammate like that. So, I think Rand is soft cleared (but obviously, never ever trust completely). 

The second is when Araris asks Alvron and I for reasoning for our votes on Phatt. We had already included our reasoning in our posts, and so it felt like a subtle ploy to keep a bandwagon from forming on Phatt. So, I will be keeping my vote on Phatt. 

[phattemer]

So do you think that there were multiple Spiked in the Synod, or do you think I'm lying about being in the Synod?

[Steeldancer]

2 minutes ago, phattemer said:

So do you think that there were multiple Spiked in the Synod, or do you think I'm lying about being in the Synod?

I think there might be multiple spiked in the synod. In fact, baseless suspicion but what if all the spiked were in the synod but have less powerful roles? That would be interesting balance wise. 

[phattemer]

So you don't agree with the reasoning that had there been multiple Spiked, Araris would have said it was most likely there was one? He said earlier that we had to be careful that there could be multiple, and that would completely be against his interests if there were multiple since it would be quite simple to say there was almost certainly one.

Edited August 18, 2018 by phattemer

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, phattemer said:

So you don't agree with the reasoning that had there been multiple Spiked, Araris would have said it was most likely there was one? He said earlier that we had to be careful that there could be multiple, and that would completely be against his interests if there were multiple since it would be quite simple to say there was almost certainly one.

saying to be careful is a way to get into the village's good graces. I take nothing for granted, and I'm suspicious of you. Frankly, the number of spiked in the doc doesn't concern me. I just want all the spiked dead, wherever they are. Saying 1-2 doesn't lose him anything even if there is 1-2 or even 3. It didn't work out well for him anyway, but not because of anything related to the synod. Anyway, I gotta go. 

[Rathmaskal]

So, a couple quick thoughts right now:

I'm working through looking at Araris and other interactions.  (Sorry that these don't quite end up in order) One that kind of stands out to me is the quick 1-2-3 votes on rand d2...  Araris was the 3rd of these 3.  Seems unlikely that that would be multiple elims right there.  So I'm giving WfY and Steel a soft clear.  WfY a bit more...  The Steel/Araris interaction that resulted in this:

Quote

Um, ok why did two more people vote on Rand? Araris, could you explain your vote? 

Um, I’m afraid I don’t have much of an explanation for why I find you a bit suspicious? Just this uncomfortable feeling about you in my gut. I would prefer to vote on someone I have a harder reason to vote on, though. So I’ll change my vote Rand Araris . Not sure I like how you just followed me on Rand for no reason. I was hoping for alternate Lynch targets, not a following of votes.  -Steel

This could easily be some distancing...so only a slight lean there.

(Ninja #1 occurs here)

I'm also kind of curious what was happening in the Synod doc when Araris said this:

Quote

I'd guess that one or two of the Synod are elims, which would allow them to potentially gain control of the one-shot kill. I think it's dangerous to think of it as a village doc. I think the Synod is more like a place where an elim could anonymously spread discord. Kinda like a PM that is even better for any elims inside.

Next thing that kind of stands out is the analysis post from d2 (Here's part of it):

Quote

As far as the D1 lynch goes, since both candidates were village, that means that the elims were probably evenly distributed between them, as has already been mentioned. It also means that the elims didn't really have any stake in the result, so that suggests to me that votes later in the cycle are more likely to be village aligned.

There's bound to be something in this post that isn't true...  I'm leaning toward that since it is the most (Ninja #2 occurs here) generic.  (Ninja #3 occurs here)  That makes me think that maybe Sart is OK as well for now.

OK, as for my suspicions.  Right now it's tough...  WfY still has had some sketchy moves so far...  (Ninja #4 here...dang, active time) I don't like people not being around/posting for this long, so Bort is going to be on my list as well...  But right now, Kidpen seems suspicious enough to vote on.  Main reason here is that Kidpen has basically been voting on whims so far...has promised additional rationale but never really delivered...and the rationale for the Coop vote d1 still seems a bit odd.  OK, no more ninjas now!

 

[phattemer]

11 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

saying to be careful is a way to get into the village's good graces. I take nothing for granted, and I'm suspicious of you. Frankly, the number of spiked in the doc doesn't concern me. I just want all the spiked dead, wherever they are. Saying 1-2 doesn't lose him anything even if there is 1-2 or even 3. It didn't work out well for him anyway, but not because of anything related to the synod. Anyway, I gotta go. 

Whether we have three people confirmed safe doesn't concern you? That's frankly either ridiculous or Spiked.

[Steeldancer]

6 minutes ago, phattemer said:

Whether we have three people confirmed safe doesn't concern you? That's frankly either ridiculous or Spiked.

Here's the thing. From hard experience, I never assume someone to be confirmed safe. I have witnessed the most stupidly ridiculous things that totally fooled me, and caused me to do devastating damage to the village. So, no. Confirmed safe doesn't exist. There is only those who are less likely to be evil. 

[phattemer]

If we can agree that there's only one Spiked in the Synod, and since one Spiked in the Synod has died, that would mean anyone else in there was safe. So the question is, if you were one of the Spiked in the doc, would you ever suggest there could be two of you, or would you dismiss it if you even decided to bring it up in the first place? And the converse: if you were a Spiked alone in the doc, you would ever pass up the opportunity to make the village exactly this paranoid if you died by mentioning there could be another one, and you would never suggest there was definitely only one for fear of having the remaining members band together. I'll change my vote: Kidpen Steeldancer

I also would very much like other people's reactions to my claim:

Do you agree that there was almost certainly only one Spiked, and if not, why?

Do you have ideas as to what should go on in the Synod doc now, and what?

[Worldhopper From Yolen]

Personally, I think @Steeldancer is fine, though I don't have the best judgement. (Last time around I thought @Araris Valerian was clear.). Going with my assumption that @Steeldancer is good, I'll go with his precollected data and vote phattemer.

About @phattemer's questions, I think there is most likely one spiked.

Edited August 18, 2018 by Worldhopper From Yolen

[phattemer]

Worldhopper, if you think there's only one Spiked, it's impossible for me to be guilty. Araris and I were both in the Synod, and he was a Spiked. Seeing as it's been quite a while and no one has claimed I didn't say who I am in the Synod, which would guarantee I was lying about it, your two points are internally inconsistent.

[Worldhopper From Yolen]

Yeah, I realize that now. Drat. Well, as I truly believe there is probably only one Spiked in the Synod, I will clear you. Phattemer.

(I better not be wrong about you.)

[phattemer]

We do still have almost two full days left to discuss, so there's plenty of time for me to convince you you're not.

[Sart]

Hmm... I'm worried I'm tunneling on Phattemer. I had forgotten about his day one vote on Araris. It wasn't a poke vote, although I still don't understand the reasoning behind it. However, I'm willing to widen my suspect pool. I'm going to place a vote on Stick for now. Not sure why exactly, but it feels like they've been slipping under the radar.