Mid-Range Game 30/Anonymous Game 2: - Scadrian Black Ops

[Indigo Weasel]

Sorry for the double post, but it's been a while and it's different thought. 

What if 2 person elim team. One scan, and one kandra, so every time there is an elim kill, that's who the elim used to be, but they change to someone else. 

Can someone who has more time than me look at the elim kills, and see if anything is out of the ordinary?

[Seonid]

The writeup has been edited in! Fifth has outdone himself again (and deserves your upvotes!)

[Cream Tuatara]

Well, I can see how Falcon would say the things he did if he missed that a green role means village. Unfortunately, that leaves us without getting too much from last cycle (I use we liberally here, despite my lack of activity). We have a counter wagon on Vulture, and I read that as a village move. Given that any eliminator would know that Falcon is not an elim, and that they might possibly have an incentive to kill him, it makes sense for them to join in his lynch.

I'll be back in a bit to actually place a vote. Hopefully a shorter bit than cycle 1.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Below are the remaining of us:

Amber Vulture, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Cream Tuatara, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo, and myself. That's 10. If Indigo Weasel is correct about there being two elims only, we have about 3 more cycles till LyLo. But let's assume that's 2. A three-member elim team is plausible too.

Out of the remaining, my village reads include Ivory and Swan, and maybe I'll throw in Azure and Weasel in there too. That leaves: Vulture, Penguin, Tuatara, Mauve, and Dingo. These are my current suspects, I guess, following the PoE.

Anyway, is it worth entertaining the possibility that Falcon may have been 'not Falcon' last cycle? Perhaps they were kandra'd? As so many of you have repeatedly pointed out, that lynch was too easy. And Falcon wasn't even trying to defend themsef. Not quite.

Falcon had Hyena's role, as the flip shows. Could account-swapping be involved? I actually just deleted two whole paragraphs of me rambling about the possibility, but it didn't make much sense. Too far-fetched, and kinda nonsense. I'll try to articulate once again when it isn't 1 AM and rewrite it. 

Gonna keep this bit here tho: all Hyena said C1 was that maintaining reads isn't going to be as simple because there's account swapping involved. And that's it. Sus? Not sus? Strange? Maybe they were targeted only because they posted the least and the elims felt like keeping the actives alive.

And that vote manip. It isn't our usual rioting or soothing, because the names of the voters shown are 7, and vote count adds up to 8. Uhh. Hm. @Seonid can we get a list of players still participating in the game? 

[Fifth Scholar]

Not Seonid, obviously, but currently living players are Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Coral Swan, Cream Tuatara, Indigo Weasel, Ivory Dragonfly, Mauve Crocodile, and Melon Dingo. 

[Ivory Dragonfly]

It will be interesting to see if any of my guesses for people's regular accounts are correct.

Anyways, for doing stuff this cycle.

I don't really get why Falcon say "I'm not a villager" when they are flipping villager, but whatever.  We should absolutely take Falcon's "speculations" about the nature of the informant role seriously, at this point.  Putting a few pieces together, I am kind of worried that the eliminator faction may have a sudden death win condition of killing all the informants.  That's one of the only ways any of this could make sense, to be honest, although I kind of hope I'm wrong and somebody else has a different take on things.

The other possibility is that an account-swap happened when we weren't looking.  That would explain a lot.  But, tbh, I don't believe the swap mechanic could work that way.  If nothing at all looks off in the alignment flip, and it isn't stopped by a lynch, that would be an extremely powerful ability.

The lack of PMs in this game is a right kick of the teeth when you are trying to make sense of the game mechanics, I will say.

Anyhow, I'll be doing my best to vote for somebody what's actually guilty this time, seeing how the last one turned out.  Current players (thanks Fifth):

Amber Vulture

Amethyst Scorpion

Azure Mouse

Chartreuse Penguin

Coral Swan

Cream Tuatara

Indigo Weasel

Ivory Dragonfly

Mauve Crocodile

Melon Dingo

Of those, I am removing Swan, Weasel, and myself, because I am pretty sure none of those are elims.

Big caveat there because somebody trusted could totally get account-swapped.  Although, I would like to think that duplicating my particular brand of crazy would be suitably challenging.  And I have a feeling I would notice if Swan or Weasel got replaced, too.  That's the advantage of all these people being pretty active.  Although @Coral Swan if you'd post this cycle, and explain why I was dumb to lynch Falcon, I'd feel much better about your not being bodyswapped.

Amber Vulture

Amethyst Scorpion

Azure Mouse

Chartreuse Penguin

Cream Tuatara

Mauve Crocodile

Melon Dingo

Of those, Vulture and Tuatara have the distinction of getting close to being lynched but escaping, which in my books is a mark of suspicion.

However, I also think Vulture was not defended very much by anybody, which is a mark of being village.  I don't really suspect Vulture.

I also have a feeling Scorpion is village.  I don't have words to put to that, but I do.

So then, I would say I'm fairly sure our ~3 elims are in this group of 5:

Azure Mouse

Chartreuse Penguin

Cream Tuatara

Mauve Crocodile

Melon Dingo

...and that's enough for now, I'll hit post and place a vote after I've done more thorough analysis on those five people.

[Amber Vulture]

Amethyst, that actually makes some sense. I was wondering why Falcon never even voted. He would have been close to saving himself if he'd voted for me, and Azure and I both said we'd remove our votes if he gave us a better explanation (even if that ended with my death).

It could be that account had been taken, and the "Kandra" had intentionally caused Falcon to fall under suspicion. Or it could be he was okay with dying for RL reasons.

It just all felt so odd. I'll try to do an analysis of his posts later when I'm not on mobile.

[Indigo Weasel]

2 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

Big caveat there because somebody trusted could totally get account-swapped.  Although, I would like to think that duplicating my particular brand of crazy would be suitably challenging.  And I have a feeling I would notice if Swan or Weasel got replaced, too.  That's the advantage of all these people being pretty active.  Although @Coral Swan if you'd post this cycle, and explain why I was dumb to lynch Falcon, I'd feel much better about your not being bodyswapped.

Remember, this cycle, I'll be less analysis oriented. I'm in the mountains. But I'll start off the voting discussion, which is important every cycle by putting a vote down for cream tuatara who I voted for on the first cycle, and after he tied with albatross, there was a counter against albatross again. 

I might have time tomorrow to chem again, but most likely signing off for the night.

[Azure Mouse]

Thinking back, could it be that Falcon only said that village or elims could kill him just so he wouldn't get killed by the elims or the village? If Ivory is indeed right and the elim teams goal is to kill the Informants, then wouldn't it make sense for Falcon to, instead of saying 'the elim team wants my role dead', say that 'village or elim want me dead', to help him not get elim killed.

Kind of far-fetched, I know, but if you had a role that the elims would want dead, saying 'elims want to kill my role' would be placing a target on your back anyway, so saying that the target could be set by village or elims increases the chance that the elims might think 'hey he might not be an enemy for us use the kill on someone else' and make the villagers think 'hey he might not be a threat save the lynch for someone better.

I mean, it might not have been done in the best way, but I think I can see a little bit of Falcons stragey. Or maybe I'm just grasping at straws. It's a perspective I haven't heard yet, and I thought I could bring up the possibility.

Anyway, as for who could be the elims now, I'm stuck. Yeah, I know, not the thing to be right now, but whoever the elims are: I complement you, because it seems that most of the people still alive today have either contributed to the village or all their posts are NAI. So I'm not really sure where to start.

Personally, I'm not too suspicious of Indigo, but I'd like to here from the people who were suspicious of them on C1 and hear what they think now. Since I was never really that suspicious of Indigo I can't compare him now to C1 and see if his suspiciousness was a one-cycle thing or no.

Anyway, now I'm going to judge people based on how much reads, speculation and village helping theories they've. Done. This isn't really meant to be a basis to vote on someone, it's just some information that might come in handy. We all know what happened last time we tried to lynch someone because of their village-helping (RIP albatross)

Amber Vulture - I would say they've helped a reasonable amount.

Amethyst Scorpion - I would say the same.

Azure Mouse - Judging my self, I'd say I've speculated a lot.

Chartreuse Penguin - their contributions won't go unnoticed, but they've helped the village out a little bit

Coral Swan - reasonableish amount

Cream Tuatara - a little bit to reasonable

Indigo Weasel - yeah, reasonable to substantial

Ivory Dragonfly - A lot.

Mauve Crocodile - reasonable to substantial

Melon Dingo - reasonable

Yeah... So I'm not sure how much help that was, but I hope it's useful to at least some of you. I'll be back later to try and figure out some more, like what vote manip is being used.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Azure Mouse
Added question mark where it was due

[Amber Vulture]

I went back to break down Falcon's posts because he did offer some speculation to the mechanics of the game. A good portion of that was centered around the informants.

See spoiler tag for full breakdown:

Spoiler

Bold = Exact wording from post    Italic = My own speculation about his post

C1

Post 1

• Kandra win-con to remain undetected or swap a certain number of times

• Village and elims (assuming we have either of the two) have Kandras, win-con to discover the other

Post 2

• Voted on Cream Tuatara (poke vote)

• Talk of non-anon post and Randuir/Alvron switching accounts

Post 3

• Rep on anon accounts

Post 4

• Replied to me asking if D1 lynch was helpful, stating it would be helpful but voting would be NAI

• Removed vote from Tuatara\

Post 5

• Stated Albatross lynch seemed too perfect, unlikely elim

Post 6

• Thought Magenta was suspicious for the effort to protect them, called our interactions scripted

 

C2

Post 1

• Replied to Weasel question about reading Magenta and myself as elim, but not him.

• Mechanics discussion:

  • Two “village” factions (this suggests, knowing he was Fleeing Informant, that he knew it was a faction and not simply a role)

  • States Fleeing Informations probably have a different win con, and potentially special powers

  • Knows there’s a third, non-elim faction (that has not been confirmed for us, but it could be something he had confirmed to him. Maybe that different win-con?)

  • Doesn’t think third-faction is Kandra

  • Says from name, Fleeing = running from something, informant = knows something, but not likely the hemalurgic monster/koloss/Kandra

  • Believes elim team is a black ops group trying to kill informants who know too much (this could be the Sudden Death win-con Ivory has suggested, which if its the case, there’s probably only one left), suggests the team may be experts in disguise which he called the role-swap mechanic

  • Suggests hemalurgic monster faction/role that has to kill a certain number of people

  • (From what he posted there, I’m thinking the informant role may have only known a little bit about who they were running from, possibly the type of team it was and that they were the main targets)

Post 2

• Comments on write-up poem

Post 3

• Admits to not being refugee, but says there’s no reason he’d post that if he were elim

• Says Dingo would be a better lynch target (Is that what he knows? Was he able to scan dingo?)

Post 4

• Ninja emoji response to Scorpion’s IKYK comment

Post 5

• Says the second he gives a hint to his faction, he’s dead whether it’s by the elims or the lynch, won’t admit to his role

• Responds to Ivory, says he’s not neutral

• Responds to my comment about him saying he wasn’t sure there were elims by saying the post was pre-write-up, and didn’t know if the kill was the result of the monster

• Suggests there may have been more new mechanics

Post 6

• Responds to me again, saying it is an or, not an and. Either the village or elims would want him dead (we know now it was elims)

Post 7

• Smiley emoji in respons to Scorpion

Post 8

• Repsonds to Penguin’s vote and comment that leaving him alive would be detrimental to village, by saying What I would do in your place (Is this another clue to a possible elim? Did Falcon and his teammate scan Dingo and Penguin?)

Post 9

• Refuses to answer questions, but will add speculation
  Believes Elim team is scanner, Kandra, assassin; Neutral faction with 2 people, 6 people as village, 2 being informants (this tells me there is one informant left, that if we want to win, based on his prior posts, we want to protect)

TL;DR

In his first post yesterday, Falcon suggested there were two village factions. Knowing now he was a Fleeing Informant, this tells me it is truly a faction within the village with possible access to a doc.

He believed the eliminators were made up of a black-ops group trying to kill informants who knew too much. This could be that Sudden Death win-con Ivory has suggested. It is possible the Fleeing Informants know a little bit about who they're running from, or at least that they are the main target of the eliminators.

Based on the "knew too much" suggestion, I get the feeling the Informants have scanning abilities.

After a few votes, he admitted to not being a refugee but says there wouldn't be a reason for him to post those speculations if he were elim. He then said Dingo would be a better lynch target.

Another thing that gives me pause is when he replied to Penguin saying "What I would do in your place." I'm thinking this may have been another clue as to an elim target. Was he saying if he were an elim, he'd vote on him because of the role? I know this might be a bit of a stretch, but Penguin was the only one he responded to in this direct way.

His last post said there were two informants. I'm inclined to believe his 'speculation' on that number, which suggests to me there is only one left. If there is a sudden death mechanic, we are in a lot of trouble.

That's all from his posts, so on to other things.

2 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Thinking back, could it be that Falcon only said that village or elims could kill him just so he wouldn't get killed by the elims or the village? 

Falcon did respond to me directly relating this, and said it was an or, not an and, which at the time didn't really answer any questions.

I think I'm going to go with Falcon's suggestion that Dingo is the better lynch target. I've had a bad gut read on them from the beginning. I'll go back before this cycle is over to peg it down to why, but for now, I'll just leave it with the vote and trust in Falcon's posts.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Amber Vulture
Spelling and grammar

[Cream Tuatara]

I’m going to vote on Penguin, since they voted for Falcon and show up on both Dragonfly and Scoprion’s suspect lists.

[Azure Mouse]

Let it be known Amber's post has given me some new space to think in, so if I vote on Melon or Chartreuese (most likely Chartreuse) that it isn't a bandwagon, and that I'm thinking of it now. All in all, this is a a safety post so that if I vote on the two I don't get accused of bandwagoning.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~SUPA BIG LARGE MASSIVE EDIT:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Okay, wow, not many people talking today. Anyway, I've come up with my vote, and I might not vote again if I get it wrong this time too. *super deep sigh* Chartreuse Penguin, my vote is on you. You're one of the people that's coming up quite frequently in our suspicion lists. People are uncertain about you, but I personally think that might be because of your inactivity and lack of material to analyze than your posts themselves. However, I still think that you're at least a bit more suspicious than the others. Lynch me if I'm wrong. Heck, if I'm wrong this time I'll put the vote on myself.

Your first post is you checking in, saying hello, and stating that your original assumption about account-swapping was that the roles and wincons switched too, and that you changed your mind about this pretty abruptly. This makes me wonder if your initial assumption was before the game started, and since you were put in an elim team your assumptions changed, because there weren't many in-thread things that could have changed your mind, so that makes me think a doc-chat might have changed it. Perhaps with a Kandra partner in your elim doc?

Okay, your second post explains and answers my first point, since you were confronted by Amethyst for an answer as to why the sudden thought change. You said that you thought about it a bit more and it seemed unbalanced to have a wincon switch. Though you 'thinking about it more' could be a reason, it seems...like a cop out? No offense. Also, how would having a role and wincon switch be unbalanced exactly? I don't see it.

Your third post is a defense of Magenta and an apology for being inactive. You say that Magenta's posts seem NAI because its a normal play for Pyro, though when Magenta himself defended himself with this claim, I debunked it, so nothing really new there. Yeah, I know I was wrong anyway with regards to Magenta, but still. No comment on the inactive thing. Things happen.

Your fourth post is a defense of Emerald, asking him to reveal his role. Now, it starts coming off a bit suspicious how you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both. Since elims know fellow elims and know that everyone else is a villager, it sort of makes sense how you'd be able to know both of them would be villagers, and defended them both despite high lynches against them. You knew that they would die anyway, and so you defended them in hopes of getting 'nice points' as well as them dying. If this was one case I wouldn't be too suspicious, but this was on two different players who were both getting hit by high lynches, and you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both, despite your inactivity? Sounds like you were capitalizing on their lynches by defending them and ending up right, as well as them being dead. Additionally, the fact that your defending Emerald but also asking him to reveal his role is pretty suspicious, its like you're an elim judging whether to use your kill on him or not.

Your fifth post is going directly against your fourth and is attacking Emerald, saying how he's suspicious and how he might be detrimental to the village and pretty much the opposite of your last post, and that if you were an elim you'd kill him, which is an odd phrase I haven't heard anyone use. But I guess you didn't need to use your kill on him, because the lynch got him anyway. Again, this is a direct contrast to the last post. Hypocrisy? NOTE: This is the same post that Emerald responded to 'What I would do if I was in your place'. It definitely seems like he knows something here, and we don't know what powers an Informant has, so it might be a subtle clue, as Amber picked up on. It all points to you.

Your sixth and final post is saying your scared of a jester role? But what reason would you have to be scared?

Woah, that was a long post, and it's my hope I'm correct in my hypothesis. Anyway, I thought I'll leave this for people to take action on, because things definitely seem too odd for comfort. All you need to do is add this to the other pieces that people have said on Chartreuse to get a full picture on his alignment. Thanks for getting this far, though.

Oh, yeah, one more thing: I can now spell Chartreuse correctly because of you, so thanks.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Azure Mouse
Ha! I listened to a whole album of music while writing this. Certainly helped set the tone.

[Coral Swan]

On 7/14/2018 at 9:43 AM, Seonid said:

Amber Vulture (3): Coral Swan, Indigo Weasel, Melon Dingo,

Emerald Falcon (8): Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Ivory Dragonfly, Mauve Crocodile,

Fuchsia Ostrich has been killed! They were a Refugee!

Emerald Falcon was lynched! They were a Fleeing Informant!

Welp, that's a big punch. 

23 hours ago, Indigo Weasel said:

That question was not related to the game at all. Maybe a little bit of the meta-game though. But it means nothing alone. It goes along with the series of 5 questions to have any meaning. except that the 5 was bolded, and the name of Azure's character is bolded

You know what, I'm feeling a Weasel vote, I'll dig through their posts later and see if there's anything more to it.

13 hours ago, Ivory Dragonfly said:

It will be interesting to see if any of my guesses for people's regular accounts are correct. (I)

Anyways, for doing stuff this cycle. (II)

I don't really get why Falcon say "I'm not a villager" when they are flipping villager, but whatever. (III)

The other possibility is that an account-swap happened when we weren't looking.  That would explain a lot.  But, tbh, I don't believe the swap mechanic could work that way.  If nothing at all looks off in the alignment flip, and it isn't stopped by a lynch, that would be an extremely powerful ability. (IV)

Although @Coral Swan if you'd post this cycle, and explain why I was dumb to lynch Falcon, I'd feel much better about your not being bodyswapped. (V)

However, I also think Vulture was not defended very much by anybody, which is a mark of being village.  I don't really suspect Vulture. (VI)

I also have a feeling Scorpion is village.  I don't have words to put to that, but I do. (VII)

Numbered because whew there's a lot to go through here, I guess. And numbered with Roman Numerals because I want to look sophisticated and intellectual, I guess.

(I), what's up guys I'm also thinking of throwing a vote on Dragonfly so let's add that to people to go through.

(II) I missed this sentence when deleting stuff from the post and don't wanna change all the other numbers so this is staying.

(III), I don't think this can really be said when we don't have all of the information so can't conclusively say what things are like on the other side of 'the fence', where their description for their alignment is probably pretty weird and specific but they just so happen to be coloured green because I don't know yet, maybe their's an alignment scanner or something which just returns 'The scanned individual is green' or whatever. But yeah, unless you're an Informant then ya don't know it all so who knows. Maybe everyone is coloured green this game as a test? Good ol blackout games.

(IV), If there was a swap, then I'd say kudos to them for swapping and then doing a bunch of shenanigans though hopefully it's going to be harder for them to do that if everyone keeps talking and doing their own little verbal tics that would be hard for any potential swapper to duplicate, like if a potential Kandra wants me then guess what enjoy writing massive posts. 

(V) I'm starting to feel like no-one read my post about the whole Falcon lynch and how in retrospect it looks like I was pretty spot on, so yeah I'm not writing another thing about that when I already had thanks. If you wanna read it, here it is.

 

Feel free to read Past-Swan agreeing with Current-Swan.

(VI) Not being defended by anyone isn't really a mark of being Village, sorry. Like, if someone votes me and no-one defends me it doesn't mean you should trust me or anything, just that no-one thinks I'm worth defending or that the elims aren't going to straight away be like 'oh no my friend' or even that people just want to see some self-defense. Plenty of options, none that really lead to trusting them.

(VII) Gut feeling is good, if I can trust your gut. Which I don't know about, so maybe I have to look at you too.

 

10 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Thinking back, could it be that Falcon only said that village or elims could kill him just so he wouldn't get killed by the elims or the village? If Ivory is indeed right and the elim teams goal is to kill the Informants, then wouldn't it make sense for Falcon to, instead of saying 'the elim team wants my role dead', say that 'village or elim want me dead', to help him not get elim killed.

Kind of far-fetched, I know, but if you had a role that the elims would want dead, saying 'elims want to kill my role' would be placing a target on your back anyway, so saying that the target could be set by village or elims increases the chance that the elims might think 'hey he might not be an enemy for us use the kill on someone else' and make the villagers think 'hey he might not be a threat save the lynch for someone better.

I mean, it might not have been done in the best way, but I think I can see a little bit of Falcons stragey. Or maybe I'm just grasping at straws. It's a perspective I haven't heard yet, and I thought I could bring up the possibility.

Hey here's a post from last cycle.

 

Also I was gonna say stuff relating to Vulture's latest post but ngl I got a bit annoyed reading it so we ain't engaging in emotional discourse. If you feel like this post ain't saying much, it's cause I said most of it last cycle.

 

[Azure Mouse]

As much as the Mouse agrees with the Swan, the Mouse cannot ignore the high levels of passive-aggressiveness in the Swan's posts. The Mouse also cannot comprehend how the Past-Swan's post has any relation to the Present-Mouse post, as they do not talk about just the same thing in any regard. The Mouse is confused.

[Chartreuse Penguin]

9 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Let it be known Amber's post has given me some new space to think in, so if I vote on Melon or Chartreuese (most likely Chartreuse) that it isn't a bandwagon, and that I'm thinking of it now. All in all, this is a a safety post so that if I vote on the two I don't get accused of bandwagoning.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~SUPA BIG LARGE MASSIVE EDIT:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Okay, wow, not many people talking today. Anyway, I've come up with my vote, and I might not vote again if I get it wrong this time too. *super deep sigh* Chartreuse Penguin, my vote is on you. You're one of the people that's coming up quite frequently in our suspicion lists. People are uncertain about you, but I personally think that might be because of your inactivity and lack of material to analyze than your posts themselves. However, I still think that you're at least a bit more suspicious than the others. Lynch me if I'm wrong. Heck, if I'm wrong this time I'll put the vote on myself.

1. Your first post is you checking in, saying hello, and stating that your original assumption about account-swapping was that the roles and wincons switched too, and that you changed your mind about this pretty abruptly. This makes me wonder if your initial assumption was before the game started, and since you were put in an elim team your assumptions changed, because there weren't many in-thread things that could have changed your mind, so that makes me think a doc-chat might have changed it. Perhaps with a Kandra partner in your elim doc?

2. Okay, your second post explains and answers my first point, since you were confronted by Amethyst for an answer as to why the sudden thought change. You said that you thought about it a bit more and it seemed unbalanced to have a wincon switch. Though you 'thinking about it more' could be a reason, it seems...like a cop out? No offense. Also, how would having a role and wincon switch be unbalanced exactly? I don't see it.

3. Your third post is a defense of Magenta and an apology for being inactive. You say that Magenta's posts seem NAI because its a normal play for Pyro, though when Magenta himself defended himself with this claim, I debunked it, so nothing really new there. Yeah, I know I was wrong anyway with regards to Magenta, but still. No comment on the inactive thing. Things happen.

4. Your fourth post is a defense of Emerald, asking him to reveal his role. Now, it starts coming off a bit suspicious how you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both. Since elims know fellow elims and know that everyone else is a villager, it sort of makes sense how you'd be able to know both of them would be villagers, and defended them both despite high lynches against them. You knew that they would die anyway, and so you defended them in hopes of getting 'nice points' as well as them dying. If this was one case I wouldn't be too suspicious, but this was on two different players who were both getting hit by high lynches, and you knew both of them were villagers and defended them both, despite your inactivity? Sounds like you were capitalizing on their lynches by defending them and ending up right, as well as them being dead. Additionally, the fact that your defending Emerald but also asking him to reveal his role is pretty suspicious, its like you're an elim judging whether to use your kill on him or not.

5. Your fifth post is going directly against your fourth and is attacking Emerald, saying how he's suspicious and how he might be detrimental to the village and pretty much the opposite of your last post, and that if you were an elim you'd kill him, which is an odd phrase I haven't heard anyone use. But I guess you didn't need to use your kill on him, because the lynch got him anyway. Again, this is a direct contrast to the last post. Hypocrisy? NOTE: This is the same post that Emerald responded to 'What I would do if I was in your place'. It definitely seems like he knows something here, and we don't know what powers an Informant has, so it might be a subtle clue, as Amber picked up on. It all points to you.

6. Your sixth and final post is saying your scared of a jester role? But what reason would you have to be scared?

Woah, that was a long post, and it's my hope I'm correct in my hypothesis. Anyway, I thought I'll leave this for people to take action on, because things definitely seem too odd for comfort. All you need to do is add this to the other pieces that people have said on Chartreuse to get a full picture on his alignment. Thanks for getting this far, though.

7. Oh, yeah, one more thing: I can now spell Chartreuse correctly because of you, so thanks.

Well. Bold numbers added by me.

1/2. I was trying to say that a win condition and role change would be harder to make work than just switching the account you post from. Not that it would be inherently unbalanced, just that it would be more difficult to fit into a game.

3. Nothing much to say here.

4/5. I'm gonna quote my post here:

Quote

Sorry for few posts. Either way, I don't really think Emerald Falcon is certainly anti-village. If they don't want to share their win-con, that could just as easily be because it was anti-elim and they didn't want to be on the radar for a good kill target. That's assuming Falcon is a neutral-which I'm not completely convinced of so far. I think it might be good to suggest a compromise. @Emerald Falcon How about you tell us the name of your faction or role or whatever? That way we can, if one dies in the future, confirm your neutral status. That might open up some issues on your part depending on the name, but I find it much less likely to get you killed at least.

Quote

Emerald Falcon.

Afraid I find the risk to great that we could be leaving someone detrimental to the village alive if we leave you. You say you're not neutral, and that either the elims or we would want to kill you. You also say you are not a refugee. tbh, I'd kill you anyways if I were an elim. I will think on it more however, and there's still a chance I'll change my vote before the end of the cycle.

Wow, it does look pretty bad lined up like this. My first post was me saying that I think if Emerald was willing to give small amounts of information, it would do a lot to lessen my fears. My second post was making the decision that if Emerald isn't a neutral and isn't a refugee, and wasn't willing to give out any information, the risk was too high of someone helpful to the elims, or even just a straight up elim. With me saying I'd kill them anyways, I was saying what they've done was a rather bad plan, considering they'd probably die from the lynch, and if not, the elims would likely kill them. Obviously if we come to the conclusion you are more likely a village helper than a elim helper, the elims are likely to come to that same conclusion.

6. Do i misunderstand what a jester is? Normally a Jester winning would have consequences for the village, right? I've never actually played a game with them, so One Night is my only other place I've played with something resembling this.

7. YES!!!! MUAHAHAHAHA! MY WIN CONDITION IS MET!

To be fair, I'd probably kill myself at this point after your objections. I've phrased several of my posts badly, which kinda contributed to me seeming elimy. If I die, my final request is to see some guesses as to my identity after or before I die.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Ah, glad to know the Swan is here, and has not been replaced (seriously, it's almost uncanny how all the birds are getting targeted by kills and votes in this game).  Likewise, I'm not going to hash over the Falcon thing any more than we already did; I think we both said all we had to say.  I believe it was the sensible choice with the information we had at the time, although obviously it turned out to be the wrong call.

 

But hey, on the bright side, I think I maybe found the elims properly this time.  I've combed through the thread for evidence, revised some opinions, and tried to make sense of the last two cycles.  So now I unfurl my case:

I accuse Azure Mouse, Amethyst Scorpion, and Cream Tuatara of being the eliminator team.

Obviously, that requires a substantial amount of substantiation, so here it is, spoilered for convenience:

 

Spoiler

Azure Mouse

• For a very active player, Mouse's play has been remarkably safe and under the radar.
• Especially in the Falcon/Vulture lynch last cycle, they were totally active, but careful not to be too closely associated with either lynch.  Because, I imagine both were going to result in village deaths.  I should ask, if you had genuine misgivings about both lynches, why would you not bring up a third candidate?
• You eventually backed the Falcon lynch.  Obviously I voted for Falcon too, but I am starting to think that voters on Falcon are pretty suspect.  Because I am betting that if the Fleeing Informant role was anything at all special to the eliminators, that they put the pieces together.  They would realize what Falcon was, and ensured that Falcon would be lynched last cycle, to save them a kill.  (this theory is also supported slightly by the vote manipulation reinforcing the lynch on Falcon)
• Mouse is definitely the most active player in a swiftly shrinking pool of suspects.  I would rather put off lynching them because of that.  Also though, balance would strongly suggest that the eliminator team should have a significantly active member, and Mouse is practically the only person that fits the bill.

Amethyst Scorpion

• Another member of the rather small pool of people I personally think are likely to be evil (and I am reasonably confident that the people I removed from the pool are indeed innocent, for the time being).
• Similarly, reasonably active, and yet somehow still pretty under the radar.  Not everybody plays this way as an elim, but it's still pretty common.
• Similarly, voted for Falcon, and I have already explained why I find that suspicious. (I also already said I believe Scorpion's description of the village win condition was vague enough but accurate enough to be solidly NAI, so I won't consider that a factor, one way or the other)
• If my theory about elims having a sudden death win con to kill all informants is correct (and that's a big if, I'm really not sure that it is correct), then Scorpion's speculation earlier this cycle about "a faction" needing to do that seems like too much of a coincidence.
• They fit really well into the picture with the other two I suspect of being elims.

Cream Tuatara

• Narrowly survived being lynched early in the game. A truly surpising number of players in this position turn out to be eliminators.
• Did not arrive on scene for the last cycle's vote, so I am attaching more significance to their vote for this cycle.
• Not very active, so I wouldn't expect much evidence either for or against them.  But of the small amount of information I do have, all of it is either NAI or suspicious.
• If Tuatara is innocent, but I'm right about the other two, then I'd wager Dingo is the actual third elim.

 

So, that's why those three are suspicious on their own.

But why I am accusing all three at once is, I have some evidence that they're working as a team:

9 hours ago, Azure Mouse said:

Okay, wow, not many people talking today. Anyway, I've come up with my vote, and I might not vote again if I get it wrong this time too. *super deep sigh* Chartreuse Penguin, my vote is on you. You're one of the people that's coming up quite frequently in our suspicion lists. People are uncertain about you, but I personally think that might be because of your inactivity and lack of material to analyze than your posts themselves. However, I still think that you're at least a bit more suspicious than the others.

Selecting Penguin from the pool of "suspicious people" does not seem like a coincidence.  Mouse is conspicuously not mentioning that Penguin already had a vote on them, when I find it very difficult to believe that this is not playing a role in their decision to vote for Penguin.  The accusation itself also does't feel all that convicted.  And while that's totally fine (I believe villagers should always share their opinions, whether or not they feel sure about them), it also opens the door pretty wide for there being motives that aren't being said.

To me, it sounds a lot like Mouse is protecting somebody.

Quote

Lynch me if I'm wrong. Heck, if I'm wrong this time I'll put the vote on myself.

As defenses go, this feels like a really strong overreaction, especially because nobody has actually accused Mouse yet.  It really feels like they already know the lynch they just contributed to is destined to fizzle, and they want to cover themselves when it does.

 

So who is Mouse protecting with that vote?  The obvious choices are either Tuatara or Dingo.  Both of them are listed as suspects by multiple people.  Both of them have votes today.  One of those two was probably going to get my vote.

But, Tuatara or Dingo being in danger seems kind of familiar.  Recall cycle 1.  Tuatara was rapidly gaining votes.  Multiple people had bad gut reads on Dingo.

If my theory holds much water, it should hold for cycle 1, as well.

In the first cycle, Mouse kept their vote on Albatross.  This was after Albatross delivered what imo was a pretty villager-y defense that precipitated the Tuatara votes, and Mouse was certainly present in-thread if they had wanted to change it.  Obviously, that isn't damning evidence in itself.  But this interaction definitely lines up, if Mouse was on the same team as either Tuatara or Dingo.  Mouse is not openly defending either of them, but I really wouldn't expect a direct defense on the first day for an eliminator, especially when Mouse already had their vote on the best counter-lynch available and didn't need to do anything.

Scorpion defended Tuatara in a roundabout way.  They say the votes against Tuatara sound "slightly ridiculous." But then one paragraph down they say that they would definitely vote for Tuatara, if only their vote wouldn't create a tie.  Those two statements sound wildly contradictory at first.  But they actually make a lot of sense, when you consider that both are supplying reasons not to vote on Tuatara.

Also, after rollover, when Albatross flipped village, Scorpion acted frustrated at the mislynch (which itself is honestly pretty rare for a villager), and claimed that they were planning to vote on Tuatara, but just barely missed the opportunity when Seonid ended the cycle.  This could maybe be the truth, but they were also definitely online in time because their last post was submitted ten minutes before rollover.  All in all, it looks like Scorpion was preventing the Tuatara lynch, while trying to look like they were okay with it.

 

Apart from Scorpion's behavior, there are some other reasons I think Mouse was specifically protecting Tuatara:

• Tuatara is the one that was actually in danger on D1, not Dingo.
• Dingo is fairly active but if anything has less incriminating evidence then Tuatara despite that fact.  I don't see much of a connection between Dingo and Mouse/Scorpion, beyond the possibility of being defended.
• Tuatara is the one voting on Penguin this cycle, which I regard as suspect.  Granted, elims don't generally vote one after another like Tuatara and Mouse are doing, but considering that Mouse has not been accused at all before now, and that Tuatara could claim self-defense, and that they aren't that far from winning in a game of this size, I could definitely see it.
• In light of the Falcon business, I'm definitely not going to suspect Dingo for the color-coding thing, so that's one of the few solid evidences against Dingo that now no longer applies.

 

Also, it might just be me, but I don't get the feeling Scorpion and Mouse have interacted with each other very much at all in this game.  Which is kind of weird, considering that they are both pretty active and have interacted with a lot of players.  Might be distancing.

 

So, that's why I think they are a team.  It's not perfect evidence, but I think it clicks better than any other explanation for the last few cycles that I can think of.

Wew, it took a while to dig up all of that.  Thoughts?

 

It goes without saying, I could be totally wrong about all of this.  But I also wouldn't have brought this up if I didn't think it was fairly relevant.

I'll vote for any of the three people I accused as an eliminator team (Mouse with a little regret, on behalf of their activity and excellent RP contributions).  But for now, I vote for Amethyst Scorpion.  I feel they are the person most likely to validate or debunk my theory.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

That's a nice speculation, Ivory. But do you really believe I would publicly cast suspcion on both my teammates were I an elim? Also, I would never give out as much as a hint relating to my wincon if I were an elim. And as for what happened towards the end of C1, I think I've already explained why I was willing to vote for Tuatara even though I wasn't all that convinced of their suspicious-ness at the time: it was to prevent the Albatross lynch. Though I can see why many people won't buy this.

Your cases on Mouse and Tuatara are something to consider, however. I'll look more into it in some time. 

My vote should come in soon.

Edit: whoops sorry I mixed up mouse with vulture somehow. I haven't cast suspcion on Mouse yet

Edited July 15, 2018 by Amethyst Scorpion

[Cream Tuatara]

@Ivory Dragonfly You bring up that I barely survived a lynch. For that to be alignment indicative, presumably at least one person on the elim team would have voted to save me. However, the only votes on Albatross after the three votes in quick succession on me were by Emerald Falcon (confimed village) and Mauve Crocodile. So any elim team with me on it should probably include Crocodile.

[Melon Dingo]

Since I would rather not leave myself open to possible vote manipulation, I'm going to place a vote on Chartreuse Penguin.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

24 minutes ago, Amethyst Scorpion said:

That's a nice speculation, Ivory. But do you really believe I would publicly cast suspcion on both my teammates were I an elim?

Your cases on Mouse and Tuatara are something to consider, however. I'll look more into it in some time. 

Like you said, you didn't cast suspicion on Mouse.  And yeah, I do really believe you'd publicly cast suspicion on Tuatara because how you went about that is part of my case against you.  Sorry if I'm wrong, but I am not really dissuaded by this.

Please do look into it sometime if you are alive and all, yes.  I would be interested, for a lot of reasons, to hear what you have to say.

1 hour ago, Cream Tuatara said:

@Ivory Dragonfly You bring up that I barely survived a lynch. For that to be alignment indicative, presumably at least one person on the elim team would have voted to save me. However, the only votes on Albatross after the three votes in quick succession on me were by Emerald Falcon (confimed village) and Mauve Crocodile. So any elim team with me on it should probably include Crocodile.

I congratulate you on a most excellent IKYK, but I disagree.  Elims don't necessarily take direct action to save each other, in fact they try to avoid doing that if they can afford to.

Anyhow, I'm still kind of sketched out by this Penguin lynch (also seriously, what's the deal with targeting birds?). Tuatara, you voted for Penguin 'cause they showed up on people's suspicion lists, which is fair, but several people are consistently showing up on suspicion lists.  Why in particular choose Penguin from that group?  Are you professing to be a follower of the gods of luck and chance, or what?

[Amber Vulture]

Current vote count:

Chartreuse Penguin (3) - Azure Mouse, Cream Tuatara, Melon Dingo
Indigo Weasel (1) - Coral Swan
Cream Tuatara (1) - Indigo Weasel
Melon Dingo (1) - Amber Vulture
Amethyst Scorpion (1) - Ivory Dragonfly

----

I'm not quite sure what I did to annoy Swan so much, but *shrug*, oh well. I figured if I would at least get as much information out of a mislynch as possible, even if I was wrong in the first place. Hindsight is 20/20, and Vultures aren't known for great eyesight until after things are dead

I'll probably edit an RP in later, but I have to think about what to say next. I'm kind of stuck, atm.

[Ivory Dragonfly]

Come now, look on the bright side of death.  At least we know the Swan is still the Swan, if they are cross with us.  And there is some useful hindsight to be had, I think, even if the foresight was found wanting.

Also, in the interest of consolidating votes against a lynchwagon I am pretty suspicious of, Tuatara.

[Amethyst Scorpion]

Cream Tuatara.

A grand total of six posts. 

First one says I'm here

Second one agrees with Azure and conveniently hops on the Albatross bandwagon

Third one talks about Falcon lynch, but takes no stand. Also self contradiction.

Fourth one indicates they believe elims had part in Falcon lynch

Fifth votes on Penguin because Ivory and I suspect them

Sixth points out that no one from Ivory's suspected elim team voted to save them

Of all the posts above, the only opinion Tautara actually gives is the elims partaking  in the Falcon lynch. Which is quite a safe thing to say, considering there were eight votes on Falcon, one of them being due to a vote manip.

Despite my vote on Tuatara, I will say that they seem TWTBAW. But that can't always be ignored, I guess. 

[Cream Tuatara]

@Ivory Dragonfly My logic is as follows: You say that a close lynch is alignment indicative, being more likely to happen with elims. Presumably, that is because the elims are using their ability to work together to save members of their team that are close to getting lynched. Thus, for the close lynch on me to indicate that I am an elim, one of the players that voted on the counterlynch of Magenta, should also be an eliminator. The only two such votes were by Falcon and by Crocodile. I don't see how this is an IKYK in any way. Either elims influenced the lynch, in which case Crocodile is probably elim, or they didn't. If they did, then I'm probably elim. If they didn't, then the fact the lynch was close is NAI.

Edit: As for Penguin, if I take out the players that didn't vote for Falcon, and then assume that Crocodile wasn't trying to pocket me, then Penguin is the only overlap between the lists I mentioned.

Edited July 15, 2018 by Cream Tuatara

[Chartreuse Penguin]

I don't think Tutara is TWTBAW at all. I'd say just the right amount of WTBAW. However, I find Amythyst Scorpion to be a better candidate for the lynch, mainly for reasons stated before. Not that I won't change it to save my skin.