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Okay, I'm working on an analysis post that is getting a little large, but I have to go for a while, so it will come later in the day. My vote for now is going on Snipexe. I don't like how the lynch switched off of him so quickly, especially since he hasn't been very active. There isn't really anything he has done to convince me of a village alignment.

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Well, I think I remembered why I don't play QF games anymore. Sleeping through rollover is kind of a bother. Thank you to the Soother, I'd prefer to see my lynch coming than die by surprise.

Okay, so C1 was pretty boring. I think the only thing I can really get is a slight villager read on Itiah for being willing to place the second vote on Drake, although Itiah apparently didn’t realize he was the second vote on Drake. Stick does bring up a reasonable point that Drake is leaning village since there wasn't an effort to stop the lynch on him. However, I'm hesitant to make too much of a read out of that considering that rollover is when a lot of people are asleep.

C2 was a bit more interesting. We had 4 votes on Itiah, and then they all sort of disappeared. It's hard to analyze this without knowing Itiah's alignment. If Itiah flips village then I would get a mild elim read on DoS, since the last minute retraction on Itiah feels more like a calculated move to me than actually believing in his innocence. If Itiah flips elim then I'd suspect Lopen, since Cadcom is village.

I get a mild village read on Rae for defending Elandera.

C3: I'm not really sure about Stick. I can't really say much about her getting attacked without trying to guess the elim team distribution. As for Elandera, I'm not sure. But DoS's last post makes me suspicious that Elandera is village and DoS didn't want to be on the back end of a bandwagon on someone they knew to be village.

Itiah is probably village because of the stunt he tried to pull. Which points a bit to DoS again. Except then Itiah thinks DoS is village.

It's probably just me, but I don't like how quickly the lynch on me formed. Makes me suspicious of both Lopen1 and Stick.

Village reads: Itiah, Rae

Elim reads: Snipexe, Lopen1, DoS, Stick

People that should be coinshot because they are too quiet: Alvron, Lopen2, Pyro

I should probably have done this sooner. Then I wouldn't have voted on Itiah last cycle.

Edited by Araris Valerian
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1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I think I remembered why I don't play QF games anymore. Sleeping through rollover is kind of a bother. Thank you to the Soother, I'd prefer to see my lynch coming than die by surprise.

Araris It was going to be a fun surprise! :< 

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

C2 was a bit more interesting. We had 4 votes on Itiah, and then they all sort of disappeared. It's hard to analyze this without knowing Itiah's alignment. If Itiah flips village then I would get a mild elim read on DoS, since the last minute retraction on Itiah feels more like a calculated move to me than actually believing in his innocence. If Itiah flips elim then I'd suspect Lopen, since Cadcom is village

I get how that must've looked, but the votes on itiah disappearing as they did didn't seem as odd to me because I knew he was PMing a bunch of us at that time, trying to convince us of his villager-ness.

1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

Itiah is probably village because of the stunt he tried to pull. Which points a bit to DoS again. Except then Itiah thinks DoS is village.

He does, but that doesn't mean we can clear DoS if Itiah flips village. Because tbh I haven't been getting villager vibes from DoS. Not exactly elim vibes either, yet.

The reason for my vote on you Araris, is simply that you suspect almost all my village reads, and then there's just something off that my gut doesn't like. Ehh 

I can also, however, consider a snipexe lynch. But as I've repeated a number of times already, I'm *really* unsure about them.

 

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1 hour ago, Araris Valerian said:

People that should be coinshot because they are too quiet: Alvron

Wow.  A little harsh don't ya think?  :P  And here I was thinking I was being more active than usual.

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2 minutes ago, Araris Valerian said:

 

@_Stick_ Why do you have a village read on Lopen1

His posts, his votes, our PM. I think he's still a little wary of me for some reason (?) but I'd like to think he's village. If only so that I can narrow down my list of possible elims further and get to PoE, which is how and why I considered you being an elim, among other people (i.e Rae, DoS, Alv, Snip/Elandera) 

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Midnight, you come inthread to lurk around
Quick fix, could end in burning flames or paradise
Fade into view, oh,
It's been a while since I have even heard from you
(Heard from you)
And I should just tell you to speak 'cause I
Know exactly where it leads but I
Watch you go lurk and lurk each time
 
You got that barely in the game look in your eye
And we got posts to read from players in our sights
And when we go crashing down, we come back every time
'Cause silence never goes out of style, it never goes out of style

You've got that homework to do in your university dorm
And we got that hard working eyebags after a night of brainstorms
And when we go crashing down, we come back every time
'Cause silence never goes out of style, it never goes out of style
 
So it goes, your can't keep your wild eyes in the game
Goes on home, lights are off you're going on Netflix
I say "I've heard that you've been out and about with some other game, some other game"
You say "What you've heard is true but I
Can't stop thinking about this QF" and I
I said "I've been there too a few times"
 
But that's still doesn't make the lack of game-related context any less suspicious, @Devotary of Spontaneity and @Snipexe. If you two don't say more by the end of the cycle, my vote's going on you.
 
Spoiler

Devotary hasn't said very much meaningful things, mostly RP, so I wouldn't be opposed to lynching her. Interestingly enough, out of the three votes she's put down, two were on Snip and retracted before rollover ended. It feels like Devotary could be an elim trying to stay noncommittal.

Snip also hasn't said very much. He says that he doesn't like voting C1, because he's scared of accidentally lynching a villager and being lynched for that later on. That feels much more defensive than I'd expect of a villager. Also, later on, when it's not C1, he still hasn't put down a vote, even though there's more information now.

I wouldn't oppose a lynch on one of them. I don't see anything suspicious in particular, but I don't see anything villagery either.

 

Edited by Arraenae
Someday, I will remember to put the link in before posting.
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3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

Well, I think I remembered why I don't play QF games anymore. Sleeping through rollover is kind of a bother. Thank you to the Soother, I'd prefer to see my lynch coming than die by surprise.

Okay, so C1 was pretty boring. I think the only thing I can really get is a slight villager read on Itiah for being willing to place the second vote on Drake, although Itiah apparently didn’t realize he was the second vote on Drake. Stick does bring up a reasonable point that Drake is leaning village since there wasn't an effort to stop the lynch on him. However, I'm hesitant to make too much of a read out of that considering that rollover is when a lot of people are asleep.

C2 was a bit more interesting. We had 4 votes on Itiah, and then they all sort of disappeared. It's hard to analyze this without knowing Itiah's alignment. If Itiah flips village then I would get a mild elim read on DoS, since the last minute retraction on Itiah feels more like a calculated move to me than actually believing in his innocence. If Itiah flips elim then I'd suspect Lopen, since Cadcom is village.

I get a mild village read on Rae for defending Elandera.

C3: I'm not really sure about Stick. I can't really say much about her getting attacked without trying to guess the elim team distribution. As for Elandera, I'm not sure. But DoS's last post makes me suspicious that Elandera is village and DoS didn't want to be on the back end of a bandwagon on someone they knew to be village.

Itiah is probably village because of the stunt he tried to pull. Which points a bit to DoS again. Except then Itiah thinks DoS is village.

It's probably just me, but I don't like how quickly the lynch on me formed. Makes me suspicious of both Lopen1 and Stick.

Village reads: Itiah, Rae

Elim reads: Snipexe, Lopen1, DoS, Stick

People that should be coinshot because they are too quiet: Alvron, Lopen2, Pyro

I should probably have done this sooner. Then I wouldn't have voted on Itiah last cycle.

Yeah, after putting my vote on you, I started feeling bad about your lynch, so I was going to remove my vote from you last minute just to try and get as much reactions to your lynch as possible, but I accidentally fell asleep. For what it's worth, I'm glad you didn't die, even though I'm still not sure about your alignment.

27 minutes ago, Arraenae said:
Midnight, you come inthread to lurk around
Quick fix, could end in burning flames or paradise
Fade into view, oh,
It's been a while since I have even heard from you
(Heard from you)
And I should just tell you to speak 'cause I
Know exactly where it leads but I
Watch you go lurk and lurk each time
 
You got that barely in the game look in your eye
And we got posts to read from players in our sights
And when we go crashing down, we come back every time
'Cause silence never goes out of style, it never goes out of style

You've got that homework to do in your university dorm
And we got that hard working eyebags after a night of brainstorms
And when we go crashing down, we come back every time
'Cause silence never goes out of style, it never goes out of style
 
So it goes, your can't keep your wild eyes in the game
Goes on home, lights are off you're going on Netflix
I say "I've heard that you've been out and about with some other game, some other game"
You say "What you've heard is true but I
Can't stop thinking about this QF" and I
I said "I've been there too a few times"
 
But that's still doesn't make the lack of game-related context any less suspicious, @Devotary of Spontaneity and @Snipexe. If you two don't say more by the end of the cycle, my vote's going on you.
 
  Reveal hidden contents

Devotary hasn't said very much meaningful things, mostly RP, so I wouldn't be opposed to lynching her. Interestingly enough, out of the three votes she's put down, two were on Snip and retracted before rollover ended. It feels like Devotary could be an elim trying to stay noncommittal.

Snip also hasn't said very much. He says that he doesn't like voting C1, because he's scared of accidentally lynching a villager and being lynched for that later on. That feels much more defensive than I'd expect of a villager. Also, later on, when it's not C1, he still hasn't put down a vote, even though there's more information now.

I wouldn't oppose a lynch on one of them. I don't see anything suspicious in particular, but I don't see anything villagery either.

 

I can agree with this. If I had to move one of my "don't want to lynch" players into the "am fine with lynching" list it'd probably be Snipexe, since I don't have anything substantial on him. Hm, actually, I just read his last post of last Cycle, which I hadn't seen yet. Still no solid read, but I think it reads more village to me, because of the way he reacts to probably dying right then. Devotary, still not sure either, but he's always been tough to read for me.

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3 hours ago, Araris Valerian said:

If Itiah flips village then I would get a mild elim read on DoS, since the last minute retraction on Itiah feels more like a calculated move to me than actually believing in his innocence.

Like most of the other players who voted on Itiah that cycle and subsequently retracted, I received a PM from Itiah. I went to sleep before seeing that he had tried to prove his innocence by declaring that no eliminator would know that villagers were called citizens. I didn't believe an actual eliminator would attempt to prove their innocence that way, as it had been revealed in the initial rules and by Xinoehp's death that citizens were the village faction.

51 minutes ago, Arraenae said:

Interestingly enough, out of the three votes she's put down, two were on Snip and retracted before rollover ended.

One of these cycles, the vote isn't going to completely shift while I'm asleep. That, or I'll get up early enough to make an informed vote based on the candidates up for the lynch. I don't trust myself to be able to cast a useful vote with an hour or less to review the possible lynchees. 

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I think Snipexe and Devotary are considered suspect by most of the living players because they haven't given too much effort toward finding eliminators. You can read my analysis post above, but Stick doesn't like my conclusions, so judge for yourself. I'm in a similar boat, I'll be off for the cycle in a bit, and I'm slightly worried after the votes that piled on me last cycle. But Aralis has been lynched several times, so if it happens, I'm sure he'll get over it.

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A quieter cycle than I was hoping for.  But then I haven't exactly been posting myself so I can't really say much. :)  I've got about three hours till I'm off for the cycle again but given the consistent flurry of votes that's been happening in the last hour or two of the cycles, I'm not sure if it's worth me placing my vote.

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Disappointing activity.  Elandera, you are still one of my top suspects despite others seeming to trust you.  You haven't posted so far this cycle which is unusual for you but I'm sure there will be plenty of activity once I go to sleep.

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38 minutes ago, Alvron said:

Disappointing activity.  Elandera, you are still one of my top suspects despite others seeming to trust you.  You haven't posted so far this cycle which is unusual for you but I'm sure there will be plenty of activity once I go to sleep.

Hi, I'm here now. I've been lurking today but haven't felt the need to say anything yet. I'm still working to find time to do an analysis, though admittedly that won't come until tomorrow at best.

As of now, I don't have any real suspects since I haven't had time to do much more than skim posts. So I'm going to hold off on a vote this cycle.

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Well, I think I'm just gonna be playing by gut the rest of the way. I haven't had much time and since it's a QF, things go by so fast that I feel like I'm just gonna fall behind if I only post when I've got a lot of time to look things over.

So, with that in mind, I'm gonna vote Devotary. He's one of the players I've got in my "maybe suspicious" list, and I didn't really like his vote on Snipexe as it seemed somewhat bandwagon-y.

To make sure everyone is aware, we probably don't have enough time for more than one mislynch. So we need everyone voting!

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Right as promised, my read.

1. Araris (Aralis)

His concerns about elims as well as his obvious effort trying to find them gives me a village read.

2. Elandera (Ela)

4. LopenTheTwoArmedHerdazian (Lopen)

Yeah...who knows.

5. Arraenae (Para Dere) 

Her concerns on who’s an elim are justified, and so far she’s posted frequently, and hasn’t posted anything of suspicious note.

6. I think I am here (Itiah III)

Me

7. Snipexe (Snip)

Big village read, I’ve already explained why previously

8. Devotary of Spontaneity (Leidene Larabeck)

I’ve had a PM, and I’m unsure. The arguments people are already giving for her being an elim seem justified.

10. Alvron (Vron)

Dunno either. ‘Gods of Luck and Chance’ or Eliminators?

12. Bort (Joe Bourbon)

Yep, idk.

13. TheMightyLopen (Oplen)

Village, it’s been proven

15. _Stick_ (Straw Stick)

Village.

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Voting results:

Snipexe (1): Araris

Araris (1): Stick

Devotary (1): Oplen

Elandera (1): Alvron

Now, these voting results aren’t the best. If this continues the way it is, there’s a quarter anyone of them will die. Elandera, you slightly supersede DoS in suspiciousness, so my votes on you.

Edited by I think I am here.
Rusting Stormfather of the Almighty Helmore it’s hard to colour names on mobile. :(
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Aright, people want accusations? I’ll give them an accusation. devotary The last 2 cycles, they have placed a vote on someone, provided some reasoning as to why, then 30-20 minutes before the cycle ends, usually when the target is about to be lynched, they retract or change their vote to someone else. To me at least this reads as an elim joining a bandwagon, and then leaving at the last second so they don’t get associated with the lynch of a villager.

Edited by Snipexe
Formatting error/grammar
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With a 2-2-1-1 vote, a Soother could decide this lynch. I'm guessing there still is a Soother, unless Gancho was feeling suicidal. Drake voted after Gancho last posted, and Drake voted for the main alternatives for a Gancho lynch. It's possible that Gancho showed up when the lynch was between Araris and Snipexe and decided to save Araris/kill Snipexe, risking his own life to do so, but as we know Gancho wasn't an elim trying to protect a teammate I believe this is unlikely. 

4 minutes ago, Snipexe said:

The last 2 cycles, they have placed a vote on someone, provided some reasoning as to why, then 30-20 minutes before the cycle ends, usually when the target is about to be lynched, they retract or change their vote to someone else. To me at least this reads as an elim joining a bandwagon, and then leaving at the last second so they don’t get associated with the lynch of a villager.

This is because both times, new information surfaced between when I cast a vote and when I retracted that changed my mind about the lynch. Itiah had a PM that convinced me, and I retracted my vote from you because Itiah vouched for you and because of your final post last cycle where you seemed resigned to death despite Araris having more votes than you. Neither of the players I voted for ended up being lynched, though you could have been if I hadn't retracted my vote from you.

As it appears I am tied for the lynch, I will cast my first sticking vote for Elandera

 

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