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Ehh...that seems like a pretty shallow case. I’d argue that Straw was legitimately suspected at that point by many, including yourself, so while Jondesu could have been trying to swing a lynch, he could also have just been following misguided logic. I’ll certainly keep a closer eye on him, though, as the tone of that post is kinda weird. I maintain that there’s more evidence against Rath, though, so I’d urge you to reconsider your vote.

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27 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Ehh...that seems like a pretty shallow case. I’d argue that Straw was legitimately suspected at that point by many, including yourself, so while Jondesu could have been trying to swing a lynch, he could also have just been following misguided logic. I’ll certainly keep a closer eye on him, though, as the tone of that post is kinda weird. I maintain that there’s more evidence against Rath, though, so I’d urge you to reconsider your vote.

I'd argue that much of the evidence against Rath is somewhat circumstantial and could easily be attributed to a villager trusting the wrong people. While I was intitially suspicious because of some of those interactions, I find Rath's vote to break a tie in favor of Straw unusual for an elim. Rath hadn't been under much scrutiny yet, so bussing Rand to gain trust would have been unnecessary.

However, I do see much of what I have against Jon is circumstantial as well, but I still believe it's the better option as of right now.

I may agree with Rath though in starting to look at the less active voters. 

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6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Mentions, when Rand is up for the lynch, that he was inactive-stayed this somewhat hedgily, may have been trying to discourage a Rand lynch

-Votes on Devotary side of Rand/Devotary

-States Devotary vote is still his best option when challenged by her

-Says Devotary claiming a role wasn’t what he was hoping for, retracts on her and votes, not on Rand, but on me

This is what I don’t like about Rath, mainly—the other circumstantial stuff contributes to my case but this D3 voting pattern is what makes me suspicious. The fact that he retracted from Devotary, but didn’t vote Rand to solidly move the lynch away from her when she claimed, smells of an elim trying to get village points by retracting from someone they know to be a strong village role but then voting on one of their “suspicions” to keep up the act, instead of on their Eliminator teammate who the lynch is swinging towards. 

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12 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

This is what I don’t like about Rath, mainly—the other circumstantial stuff contributes to my case but this D3 voting pattern is what makes me suspicious. The fact that he retracted from Devotary, but didn’t vote Rand to solidly move the lynch away from her when she claimed, smells of an elim trying to get village points by retracting from someone they know to be a strong village role but then voting on one of their “suspicions” to keep up the act, instead of on their Eliminator teammate who the lynch is swinging towards. 

Hmm... That is very curious. @Rathmaskal, I'd like to hear your reasoning for that vote.

Edited by Elandera
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Quote

Mentions, when Rand is up for the lynch, that he was inactive-stayed this somewhat hedgily, may have been trying to discourage a Rand lynch

Someone brought it up and wasn't sure...just stating.  You can find the quote from earlier on in the thread.  I also pointed out that Sart used rum, you claimed a dagger, and other random one-line responses when people weren't sure on information.

Quote

-Votes on Devotary side of Rand/Devotary

This isn't very different logic from my initial read of you as elim based on your last-minute Araris swap.  Also...you had a vote on DoS for a while, as did Sart.

Quote

-States Devotary vote is still his best option when challenged by her

At that point, I didn't have any real suspicion on rand...(I can expand with additional quotes tomorrow if necessary)...but some of the DoS activity didn't seem quite right from the earlier cycles.  I should note that I had already told via PM with Dalinar that I wasn't planning on keeping my vote on DoS before the Spaniard claim came out...  (I'll leave that up to Dalinar to confirm).  And, after thinking about that comment...that doesn't help my case a lot as if I was elim, then Humperdinck could have easily "followed" DoS on one of the previous nights to see who was targeted.  (Although I'm unsure based on the verbiage as to whether or not 'find out who they target' would only include special character actions, or whether it would include PMs as well)

Quote

-Says Devotary claiming a role wasn’t what he was hoping for, retracts on her and votes, not on Rand, but on me

Honestly, I made this change rather late in the day, I didn't have any other major suspicions.  My read on rand came after he started analyzing the DoS votes and gave me a free pass for precisely the activity you're flagging me for right now.

I should be around plenty tomorrow as well if there are any further questions for me.  In the interest of furthering the discussion to some degree, I would like to say that come end of cycle, I can provide definitive proof that I am not an elim.

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8 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Someone brought it up and wasn't sure...just stating.  You can find the quote from earlier on in the thread.  I also pointed out that Sart used rum, you claimed a dagger, and other random one-line responses when people weren't sure on information.

This is true, but you also hedge against an outcome here, instead of just noting something you saw. Here is your post:

Quote

Randuir did mention being mostly afk through tomorrow...doesn't make your suspicion any less valid, but worth noting.

The way it’s stated is hedgy—you take care to point out that the suspicion isn’t necessarily invalid, but then continue to say “it’s worth noting,” which implies that the Randuir lynch should be more carefully considered, and potentially not happen at all. I could see village!Rath making this post, to be sure, and I’d normally ignore something like this, but with Rand’s flip anything like this is going to look more suspicious by default, and this combined with your other three posts makes me lean Elim on you. 

8 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

This isn't very different logic from my initial read of you as elim based on your last-minute Araris swap.  Also...you had a vote on DoS for a while, as did Sart.

True. Have I mentioned that I don’t trust Sart? :P Perhaps this is a truly neutral tell, but the fact remains that your vote stayed on DoS until after the roleclaim. 

8 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

At that point, I didn't have any real suspicion on rand...(I can expand with additional quotes tomorrow if necessary)...but some of the DoS activity didn't seem quite right from the earlier cycles.  I should note that I had already told via PM with Dalinar that I wasn't planning on keeping my vote on DoS before the Spaniard claim came out...  (I'll leave that up to Dalinar to confirm).  And, after thinking about that comment...that doesn't help my case a lot as if I was elim, then Humperdinck could have easily "followed" DoS on one of the previous nights to see who was targeted.  (Although I'm unsure based on the verbiage as to whether or not 'find out who they target' would only include special character actions, or whether it would include PMs as well)

Pretty sure it’s any action, though I could be wrong. Again, there is heavy incentive for elim!you to keep the vote on DoS, as the alternative is elim!Rand, which you would ideally avoid. Again, the issue I have with you is that much of what you’ve done could have come from a villager, but is very beneficial to the Elims regardless of your alignment, and I’m suspecting you because I feel that enough of your actions are elim-y that you yourself could be an elim. The issue with this logic is that it’s a pretty bad mislynch if you’re just an unlucky villager, but I’m very much not seeing a solid case against anyone else. My sincere apologies if I am wrong. 

8 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Honestly, I made this change rather late in the day, I didn't have any other major suspicions.  My read on rand came after he started analyzing the DoS votes and gave me a free pass for precisely the activity you're flagging me for right now.

Indeed, and I noticed that as well. You may have created an incredibly beneficial IKYK when you pointed that out, as I likely would have eventually called you out on it, as I have now, and now that you have that post to point back to when you call it out yourself, I feel a lot less sure about my case. However, again, the simple fact that you believed Devotary’s roleclaim enough to retract away from her, but didn’t actually secure her survival by voting on Rand, with the hindsight provided by knowing both of their alignments, doesn’t look good at all. And that is something Rand didn’t call you out on, because he couldn’t without confessing, which would be a dumb kind of move. Also, to quote Rand’s analysis of you: “Rath’s response is backed by his progression [of thought].” This is already giving you a free pass, as you mentioned, but it’s also a free pass that implies “I’m reading you as village” without explicitly saying so, similar to what he did with Len. I’ll admit that you calling it out reduces its effectiveness, but it’s almost a way of giving you even more village cred, because what Eliminator in their right mind would call out a subtle way that someone else was implying that they were village? This sounds very conspiracy-theory, and I am immersed in IKYK up to my knees, but I still believe that you may be an Eliminator despite your words. Again, I’m very sorry if I’m wrong, and I’ll admit I’m fairly unsure about this, but you’re still my best guess for elim, Rath. 

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18 hours ago, Sart said:

Vote Count:
Jondesu (2): Elandera, Sart
Rathmaskal (2): Fifth, Jondesu
Walin (1): Rathmaskal

Because people still suspect me, allow me to quote this post.

If we assume there are only 5 Elims, I am guaranteed innocent. Let's assume I am an eliminator. On Day 2, someone used a Bottle of Rum on Snipexe's vote, swinging it towards Elenion. I claimed that action, and no one counterclaimed. If that's the case then one of my evil teammates had to use their bottle of rum. We know that Elenion, Bort, and Randuir did not have a bottle of rum. @Steeldancer to make sure I understand, if a person uses their bottle of rum, does it still appear when their death is revealed? Further, we know that the Prince and the Count cannot have a bottle of rum. Therefore, a sixth eliminator must have a bottle of rum. This contradicts our assumption of five eliminators. Ergo, one of the assumptions is false. Thus, regardless of my alignment, there are two eliminators in the player list not including me.

However, I realize I was being too hasty in accusing Elandera. Her defense was well reasoned, giving me pause in voting for her. Compared to the other pinch-hitters, she's been the most active, which I greatly appreciate. I should have put my vote where my gut was leading. Jondesu voted to save an eliminator, which is something I just can't ignore. In addition, I was overvaluing that post of Randuir's. He basically placed suspicion on every semi-active voting member of the town. Thus, his post isn't really that indicative of anything. I'm still suspicious of Walin and Snipexe, and suspect one of them is the other eliminator. I'm not feeling the Rath lynch. I understand it could have been a bus, but breaking the tie on an Elim is worth a lot to me.

Out of curiosity, how do we know the Prince and Count can't have rum or a dagger? I can't find it in the rules.

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18 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Out of curiosity, how do we know the Prince and Count can't have rum or a dagger? I can't find it in the rules.

Rum and daggers are listed as miscellaneous roles, while the Prince and Count are Elim roles. A player normally wouldn't have two roles.

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2 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Wow. Nobody’s really talking here. Rath, that’s wonderful. Summoning @Elandera and @Sart to switch off Jondesu, and @Mr Doctor, @Snipexe and @Dalinar Kholin to weigh in. 

Sorry, but my vote is staying. While your reasoning is sound, I'm just not suspicious of Rath. I feel slightly better about a Jondesu lynch.

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Night Seven: The Shriek of Every Child

[Grandpa Steel drones on about how Jondesu dies in blood and gore, while Alvron chuckles darkly the entire time.]

Jondesu (3): Elandera, Sart, Rath
Rathmaskal (1): Jondesu

Jondesu has been lynched! He is Mostly dead.
Hemalurgic Headshot is totally dead! He was a Pirate with a Parrot.
 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Pirate

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins) Pirate with a Parrot

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q) Mostly Dead

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Pirate

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

blu_1529881200.png

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Wow, I feel stupid...

I've been sick for the past few days, and I thought that I had another 24 hours until rollover. Sorry about the inactivity. I'll be putting in far more effort now that I'm feeling better and don't have exams for a week.

I'm not hugely opposed to the Jondesu lynch. As his lifeblood lazily flows from his veins, clotting and coagulating as it touches a cold stone floor spattered with gore and fluids, I find myself conflicted. I didn't like how he defended Rand, and it's not inconceivable that Rand was attempting to distance him towards the end. Even as we slashed and chopped at Rand, even as blood flew and quivering meaty bits flopped to the floor, Rand decried Jondesu with collapsing lungs, perhaps as a dying ploy to save a teammate. The thing that I'm not so keen on is that the lynch doesn't tell us much about other players. While another corpse tossed into the festering pit with the others is a chance to learn whether we flayed a Guard's life from his body, we learn little more about those around us whose hands are stained with the still-warm blood of Jondesu.

I'm coming around to Fifth's idea that Sart might actually be evil. The idea of callously slaughtering half of the Elim team, painting the walls a striking crimson with the blood of the very Guards that swore to protect you all to infiltrate a single player, is so audacious that it might just be plausible. However, Dalinar seems to be on Sart's side, and he's generally considered by all to be an upstanding Villager. That's either a point in Sart's favour, or a sign that he's managed to fool a Villager. Worth considering, I think.

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Welp, I’m posing for activity here—I’m busy for the next day or so . May as well post at least once per cycle rather than leaving it to the two-cycle limit.

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I think we may need to start looking at lynching inactives. I feel like the majority of us remaining active in the forum all lean village. Though there could be someone skillfully hiding still, I'm also concerned about getting rid of those willing to talk and leaving the game to a handful of people not participating. I didn't realize it was quite so bad until this last day with so few votes.

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Alright, I’d like official clarification from @Steeldancer on something: is it possible for Humperdinck or the Six-Fingered Count to have a random role (rum, Dagger, parrot)? 

Second, not now, because it’s the Night turn, but can the Giant please claim tomorrow? One more person off the suspect list means the village is one step closer to figuring out the remaining players. Third, I disagree with the notion that we have inactive Eliminators, as they’ve certainly been sending in kills and doing other vile misdeeds, meaning there’s at least one active Eliminator. The unanimity of the Jondesu lynch makes me question its outcome, actually, because other than Jondesu himself, and me (though I know my village alignment), there was nobody opposing it. Unless Jondesu was Elim partners with somebody like Manukos or Walin, that lynch would not have gone through, or would have met more opposition, I feel. UNLESS, Sart or Dalinar or Elandera were moving in for the bus. (Rath votes in self-preservation, so I can’t count him.)

The fact that my near-inactive state is still letting me post more than half the people in the game is...disconcerting. We need to not let this game taper off into inactivity. 

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In light of the past events, and the fact that we're entering endgame with only a few active players and at least two Elims, I think that it's worth acting on less solid suspicions to gain different information. For me, that would be Snipexe. Their behaviour has struck me as a bit odd, having suddenly tunneled on Sart way back in this post, and then dropping the issue entirely (more thoughts in this post of mine). Elandera offered a response to my suspicions, and while they make sense, I'm still not entirely convinced and I'm sort of grasping at straws here. 

Another reason to see how Snipexe flips is to learn more about Sart. It's not much, but it'll give us some information about whether that tunnel was a distancing attempt, or trying to start a lynch on a Villager. The reason why Snipexe is a more preferable target is because he's less active, and as Elandera says:

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

I think we may need to start looking at lynching inactives. I feel like the majority of us remaining active in the forum all lean village. Though there could be someone skillfully hiding still, I'm also concerned about getting rid of those willing to talk and leaving the game to a handful of people not participating. I didn't realize it was quite so bad until this last day with so few votes.

Sart is a more active player, and that makes him inherently more valuable, because if he's a Villager, then losing him costs one of our more experienced and active players. While if he's an Elim he is a greater threat because of his activity, the fact that he has more posts means that it's harder for him to maintain his cover, and if he slips up we'll have more information. If a less-active player does something suspicious, it can be chalked up to a simple NAI mistake, since we lack a decent dataset to analyse. For that reason, I'd like to hold off lynching Sart just yet. I'm still willing to listen to Fifth's arguments, and he mentioned that he was going inactive, so if I find myself swayed I'll take up the torch and pitchfork in his stead.

 

My thoughts on the active players at the moment:

Fifth Scholar

A little bit crazed with his theory, but he seems mostly genuine. From his tone and voting record he seems to be quite Village, although he's got a lot riding on his suspicions of Sart. If Sart flips Village due to a lynch headed by Fifth, it's not going to look good for Fifth. It's not inconceivable that he's the last active Elim, gone mad with boredom and is trying some audacious crackpot theory to see if it works. Honestly, it's got me hooked as well. @Fifth Scholar in your post here you talk about Rath's vote on DoS. Do you think that Rathmaskal would act so openly to save a teammate who was pretty obviously going to be lynched the next Cycle anyway?

Elandera

Also seems mostly Village. Their tone is mostly neutral, and the analysis has seemed pretty good. Not much to say just yet, but I'm reading Village, and they seem to be attempting to revive the thread, which is another point in their favour. I'm a bit suspicious because of the poke vote that turned into the almost unanimous bandwagon against Doc12, but I don't think that it's really reasonable that Elandera could have predicted the rush that happened. I think that everyone was just looking for someone to vote on once all of their suspicions had been exhausted. @Elandera have you had time to review Sart yet? What are your thoughts?

Sart

I originally thought he was an Elim, then I decided that the amount of bussing that he would have had to be doing made that ridiculous, but Fifth's theory is sort of countering that now. Probably the strongest Elim-read out of all of the actives, but that's not saying much, since everyone appears to be Village to me. The active Elims alive right now are probably either the best, or the luckiest of the team, so I think that this is the time when crackpot theories might start becoming relevant, which is why I'm leaning towards supporting Fifth's theory on Sart. @Sart Fifth stated that Rand was emphasising that you were cleared. Have you noticed anyone else trying to pocket you or similar?

Dalinar Kholin

Seems mostly cleared, and has some good analysis. Very good voting record. His support of Sart has me thinking, though, because it could mean a few things: if Dalinar is Village (likely) and Sart is Village (less likely), then Fifth's read swings closer to Elim. If we find out that Sart is Village, however, then I'll have to consider how Dalinar knew that Sart was worth supporting. How much that support was worth is something I'm going to have to look into. @Dalinar Kholin you were quiet in D7, what are your thoughts at the moment?

Rathmaskal

Mostly a neutral read. Fifth's analysis is not necessarily damning, but it's something. Rath has admitted to trying to avoid bandwagons, which is strange. I'm going to have to look more into him to solidify my theories. He's been neutral for almost the entire game for me, which means that I'll have to change that. @Rathmaskal why did you say you wanted to avoid bandwagoning here?

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27 minutes ago, Mr Doctor said:

Rathmaskal

Mostly a neutral read. Fifth's analysis is not necessarily damning, but it's something. Rath has admitted to trying to avoid bandwagons, which is strange. I'm going to have to look more into him to solidify my theories. He's been neutral for almost the entire game for me, which means that I'll have to change that. @Rathmaskal why did you say you wanted to avoid bandwagoning here?

That's a slight misinterpretation of what I said there...  I haven't necessarily been trying to avoid bandwagons.  Just saying that me being 'bandwagony' isn't quite accurate, and providing a counter-example to the assertion.  I have definitely jumped on a few bandwagons.

59 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

I at no point decided that having a named role prevented one from having a random role. As to whether I actually distributed the roles in that way, PAFO. 

:/  That ruins a couple theories I had.  Both Fifth and Sart were fairly hard-cleared for me before this statement.  I'm still pretty confident on both being villagers, but that does throw a bit of a wrench in my theories.  Actually makes Fifth look somewhat suspicious again due to this:

Quote

Again, I’m very sorry if I’m wrong, and I’ll admit I’m fairly unsure about this, but you’re still my best guess for elim, Rath.  - Fifth

Obviously that was just a small part of the conclusion of Fifth's case against me, but I don't think I've seen anyone apologize that sincerely for a bad read on someone in the game...seems like it's trying to hedge a bit if I did get lynched.  I actually had half a post typed up regarding this before I realized we were down to just special roles (and I figured that special roles wouldn't have additional special abilities)  Now I'm unsure.

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6 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

The unanimity of the Jondesu lynch makes me question its outcome, actually, because other than Jondesu himself, and me (though I know my village alignment), there was nobody opposing it. Unless Jondesu was Elim partners with somebody like Manukos or Walin, that lynch would not have gone through, or would have met more opposition, I feel. UNLESS, Sart or Dalinar or Elandera were moving in for the bus. (Rath votes in self-preservation, so I can’t count him.)

The fact that my near-inactive state is still letting me post more than half the people in the game is...disconcerting. We need to not let this game taper off into inactivity. 

It wasn't a near-unanimous vote. At my last count, it was 3-2, with someone apparently using a bit of rum on Fifth. That is a pretty close vote when only five people actually vote.

Also, regarding the less active players, I've heard of a few at least who are posting just enough to remain technically active while not participating much in the forum itself, but staying active in things like PMs. To me that could easily be a sign of a lurking elim. It would all work much better if the others started participating a bit more, though, so we can get better reads on people.

3 hours ago, Mr Doctor said:

Elandera

Also seems mostly Village. Their tone is mostly neutral, and the analysis has seemed pretty good. Not much to say just yet, but I'm reading Village, and they seem to be attempting to revive the thread, which is another point in their favour. I'm a bit suspicious because of the poke vote that turned into the almost unanimous bandwagon against Doc12, but I don't think that it's really reasonable that Elandera could have predicted the rush that happened. I think that everyone was just looking for someone to vote on once all of their suspicions had been exhausted. @Elandera have you had time to review Sart yet? What are your thoughts?

I haven't yet reviewed Sart. I've had a crazy couple of days being called into work (I work in public safety and there have been fires popping up everywhere). I had dismissed my theory on him when he said named roles wouldn't have alternate roles, but now that's been debunked I'll look into it again. That's an IKYK situation though, because it seems like an honest village mistake to make that assumption but it could have also been an elim working to lead us in the wrong direction. I lean more toward the first option because it's something that could be and was easily clarified by the GM.

I have to leave my thoughts there for now, as I have to leave for work. Hopefully today is a bit less crazy and I have the chance to pop in a bit more often.

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