Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Jondesu]

And there's the suspicion I knew I'd be unable to avoid.  I know, I know, I haven't done much to dispel it, or to really show myself to be innocent.  I'd say just lynch me, but then I'd be offering up a known villager (to myself, being me) instead of possibly finding another one of those darn guards. 

I was wondering about Randuir, but had decided he was likely being set up.  Then again, it's Rand, so I should have been even more wary I guess.

Of the remaining players, here's my general feelings: 

1. Walin (Bill Ted): Probably ok

3. Manukos: Not sure, neutral

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins): Definitely evil. Actually, just leaning somewhat possibly evil.

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist): Not sure, leaning town.

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates): Pretty confirmed good.

11. Jondesu (Q): Totally evil.

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo): Maybe evil.

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk): Probably ok.

18. Straw (Straw): Probably evil.

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert): Not sure.

20. Val (Val): Neutral

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace): Probably good.

23. Elandera: Not sure

24. Burnt Spaghetti: Probably good.

25. Elbereth (Elenta): Probably good.

27. Rathmaskal (Rath): Maybe evil.

 

That's too many evil or maybe evil players, I think.  HH, Doc, Straw, and Rath are almost certainly not all evil, but I'm thinking at least one or two of them are. I'd vote on Straw again, or Doc (who's up for the Lynch this time), and would probably be willing to vote on HH as well.

All of this is assuming I haven't made any glaring mistakes owing to misjudging the elaborate clues simply not paying enough attention.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

@Jondesu I don't understand why you feel so strongly that I am evil. Well, actually somewhat less strongly, but I still don't see your reasoning behind this.

Edit: Scratch that. I feel like I can't take any of your post seriously now, after reading through it again, because you also labeled yourself as totally evil. I am now left slightly confused.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Hemalurgic Headshot

[Rathmaskal]

3 hours ago, Elandera said:

I'd have to go back and review his posts specifically, but from what I remember in my review last night I didn't get much of a read at all. It's enough for me to be suspicious, especially at this point in the game. I'd probably put him third on my list of elim suspects, with Doc 12 and Rathmaskal in the lead.

Not sure what you're referring to other than some vague references to odd behavior...  My vote on randuir happened after I had voiced suspicions previously and pointed out some odd behavior in his play...also broke a tie between rand and Straw.  Unless you think Straw is also elim, not sure how my vote could lend itself to any suspicion.

One thing I'd like to get others to weigh in on:

Quote

The most important reason for that is that lynching inactives does not give us a firmer hand-hold. Lynching actives at least generates direct interaction and discussion. If we where to all decide to lynch elephant earwax tomorrow, there'd be less of that. I doubt anyone currently active would just go and sit on their hands and do nothing if we decided to lynch someone that's less active, but the discussion around the lynch would generate less information.

I understand the general sentiment very much, but it is a move we should be careful with as we risk losing discussion.

-Rand (when Fifth Scholar was the only one voting on him)

I threw out the thought of starting to look more at the relative inactives from a voting perspective and this was rand's response...  I could definitely see this being a bit of deflecting here, trying to quickly dismiss the thought since rand probably didn't see a lynch coming the next day...  Anyone else reading anything here?

[Mr Doctor]

This bandwagon is fitting with the daily fashion, since it is indeed a rather dramatic turn of events. Why must we do this? Why must we turn upon each other like starving rats in a cage! Surely if we reason with the Prince, he will come out of hiding and we can have peace! Not one drop of blood need be spilled, not one more person, pirate or guard or eel or zombie, need fall if we speak with reason and kindness! This war can be avoided not through more slaughter, but through intellect and compassion!

 

...Except that would be boring. And it's not really the point of the game. So let's keep on killing each other!

1 hour ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

@Jondesu I don't understand why you feel so strongly that I am evil. Well, actually somewhat less strongly, but I still don't see your reasoning behind this.

I'd like some reasons for those reads as well @Jondesu. Those are four players that you don't like, but no reasons for why. I'd like to hear your thoughts behind this, because otherwise it just looks like distancing or sowing discord. 

As for the read on himself, I'm certain that it's a joke. I remember reading a previous game and seeing Droughtbringer (I think?) do the same thing. It doesn't invalidate the rest of the reads, though.

 

16 hours ago, Elandera said:

Sart - His voting history suggests a strong likelihood he's village. I find it unlikely that an elim!Sart would have bussed every one of his teammates when there were other options at the time.
Fifth Scholar - He was one of the major players in pushing for a Randuir lynch the last few cycles. Unlikely elim behavior.

I agree about Sart, and Fifth is pretty much cleared due to his tunneling on Rand. I wondered originally if Sart was Prince Humperdinck, which would have made him more valuable than a regular Elim which is why he survived so many close calls, but I'm now pretty much convinced that he's clean. Humperdinck's tracking is barely relevant now that the power roles are gone and our Max is inactive, so it doesn't make sense to keep him around and I can't think of any other good reasons for Sart to be an Elim.

16 hours ago, Elandera said:

Snipexe - Though there have been a decent number of posts from Snipexe, there have been few actual interactions that might give alignment indication.

What do you think about Snipexe's sudden, random tunnel on Sart? Here, on his second post of the game, he goes after Sart without stating his intentions earlier at all. When I prompted him he claimed IRL, but it's still a little strange that he went after Sart and then did a complete 180. Also notable that he went after Fifth an hour earlier here, but we were working at a lower information level there. Hey, I was voting on Sart back then, but even then, I'm not going to trust Snipexe solely because he voted on the same person that I did.

16 hours ago, Elandera said:

Straw - It is likely that he is village with Randuir flipping elim and having pushed for a Straw lynch. If Straw had been either the Prince or Count, I would assume Randuir would sacrifice himself (being a guard only) to save one of the more important roles.

I disagree with the last part, because Humperdinck's track is only useful now for watching Miracle Pills and PMs (are PMs a targeting action?), when its purpose was probably to hunt down the Man in Black or Buttercup. Those two were nullified in C1, so Humperdinck is only marginally more valuable than any other Elim. The Count is actually a weaker Elim than all of the others, because his special ability is being able to be revealed by the Spaniard. So Elim!Straw doesn't make a great deal of sense by these reasons, but it's still worth keeping an eye on him.

 

16 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

This will likely change later as I look at Rand’s posts more, but for many of the reasons Elandera said, Doc12.

16 hours ago, Straw said:

I’ll put a vote on Doc12, for the reasons stated by Elandera. Additionally, he hasn’t responded to a PM I sent him a while ago.

Make sure that you're both willing to reconsider your votes if Doc responds fittingly. Note that Elandera seems to be poke voting more than trying to lynch, and those reasons are based around that fact. If Elandera's reasons give you a different read, please state why. Regardless of my own thoughts on Doc12, I think that stating a few reasons is a good habit to maintain even if you agree entirely with someone's arguments.

 

My opinions of Doc are mixed, but not especially good. His actions in the early game were decidedly neutral, and he offered analysis of a lot of different players but didn't seem to focus on anyone in particular even though a lot of other active players were establishing suspicion lists. His votes seem to have been grudging in the later cycles, and he still remains neutral because of it. It's possible that I'm reading too much into it, but that seems very similar to Rand's behaviour. Rand remained very detached and distanced from everyone until the heat came on him, when he started becoming a lot more active and acted upon his 'suspicions'.

It's possible that there's an Elim strategy where you try and remain above the arguments so that you don't imply any alignment, but you also provide analysis and arguments to make yourself seem useful enough to keep around. It would play off the bias that players are more likely to trust a useful person, or at least be reluctant to lynch them because of their helpful analysis. I found myself being affected by that when Drake was around, because I was suspicious of Eternum, and Drake would have inherited his alignment. I found Drake's discussion to be very helpful, and it made me almost forget that I'd even suspected the player who had come before him. As it turns out, he was probably clean all along given last night's kill, but that's proof that a helpful player can avoid votes.

However, the counterargument is that the very strategy that I'm describing is also used by Villagers to avoid being lynched, but continue to help their team. So we have two teams who have the same behaviour. It would also protect them from Elims who won't think it worth killing them when they can eliminate the larger threats who are throwing votes at their team. Perhaps Doc is trying this, and that thought leads to IKYK.

But I shall brave the madness that is IKYK and try and decode it. No promises if I turn up anything useful. I have a theory that the probability that a given level of IKYK is correct scales approximately logarithmically. For example if Village!Alice believes that Elim!Bob's actions are AI, that's level 1. At level 2, Bob knows that Alice would have believed his actions to be AI, and so he's accounted for that. As you increase the levels, the probability that a given level is the one that has actually happened initially increases very quickly. However, once you get to, for example, level 7, where Bob knew that Alice would guess that Bob expected Alice to know that... (and so on, ad nauseum), the chance that Bob thought one level higher than that isn't that much greater than the chance that he thought to level 7. Frankly, people are lazy (or should I say, 'time-efficient'), and by the time that Bob's gone that far into planning, the amount of people who will analyse him and go beyond the levels that he's thought to would probably not be worth planning against. I would say that the highest probability of correctness is around level 3-4.

A more helpful way to look at it would be to consider how much effort that player would put into this facade. Doc12 hasn't made that many posts, but the initial ones that he did have been quite detailed. That means that they have a higher chance to be tailored and reviewed before posting. I also believe that Doc is a thoughtful player, given by general tone readings and his desire for everyone to keep thinking even while he's up for lynch. That means that he's more likely to have gone for a thoughtful strategy, like the one that I've described. If his strengths are in neutral analysis, he might occupy that space regardless of what side he's on. Can some other players confirm whether this is typical Doc behaviour? I remember Elbereth telling me that it's a known strategy to act neutral, but I'm not sure if this is Doc specifically or just regular neutrality.

I believe that since Doc has probably put a lot of effort into the posts that he's made, and that there are less of them, the levels of this hypothetical IKYK situation are quite high. Does that give me an alignment read? No, not at all. Hooray, I managed to write a few paragraphs of useless analysis! I didn't promise anything conclusive, mind you.

But it does tell me that if Doc is playing neutral, it means that he's probably got some good reason to be there. This, and the fact that he's remained neutral (I say this because he wasn't especially prepared to take a side on the Straw/Rand lynch), doesn't speak all that well for him. I would expect a neutral player to remain neutral while they would be most threatened by early lynches, and then come in with the suspicions that they'd gathered over the previous Cycles and pick a side. Doc hasn't really done this, because he still seems to be sitting on the fence. But because of his illness likely delaying his picking of sides, I'm willing to stay my vote until I can see more of him. I don't think that there's enough information here just yet.

[Elandera]

4 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Not sure what you're referring to other than some vague references to odd behavior...  My vote on randuir happened after I had voiced suspicions previously and pointed out some odd behavior in his play...also broke a tie between rand and Straw.  Unless you think Straw is also elim, not sure how my vote could lend itself to any suspicion.

That's honestly all it was, a vague suspicion based on something I read a few cycles back (which I doubt I could find again at this point). I wrote it more as a reminder to myself to go back and review your posts a little bit more, and your placement of votes. Now after looking a bit closer, I'm sliding you back to slight to mostly village on my read-scale. I apologise for the bad read. It's what happens when I review things on too-little sleep.

 

1 hour ago, Mr Doctor said:

1. What do you think about Snipexe's sudden, random tunnel on Sart? Here, on his second post of the game, he goes after Sart without stating his intentions earlier at all. When I prompted him he claimed IRL, but it's still a little strange that he went after Sart and then did a complete 180. Also notable that he went after Fifth an hour earlier here, but we were working at a lower information level there. Hey, I was voting on Sart back then, but even then, I'm not going to trust Snipexe solely because he voted on the same person that I did.

2. I disagree with the last part, because Humperdinck's track is only useful now for watching Miracle Pills and PMs (are PMs a targeting action?), when its purpose was probably to hunt down the Man in Black or Buttercup. Those two were nullified in C1, so Humperdinck is only marginally more valuable than any other Elim. The Count is actually a weaker Elim than all of the others, because his special ability is being able to be revealed by the Spaniard. So Elim!Straw doesn't make a great deal of sense by these reasons, but it's still worth keeping an eye on him.

3. Make sure that you're both willing to reconsider your votes if Doc responds fittingly. Note that Elandera seems to be poke voting more than trying to lynch, and those reasons are based around that fact. If Elandera's reasons give you a different read, please state why. Regardless of my own thoughts on Doc12, I think that stating a few reasons is a good habit to maintain even if you agree entirely with someone's arguments.

1. I got the impression the tunnel on Sart was mostly innocent. From what I could tell of Snipexe, his activity was low at the beginning and I can understand not fully reading everything. If in his skimming, he caught something suspicious in Sart's words, I could understand a tunnel. It would be unusual elim behavior to be that focused. However, I'm not ruling him out just yet because I'm suspicious of everything and everyone.

2. And that's what I get for not knowing what elim roles can do. I assumed either the Count or Prince had some useful ability, but you're right. At this point, they're just as useful as the guards. Either way, I still consider Straw mostly cleared.

3. I appreciate this. It was somewhere in between a poke vote and a lynch vote. I still do consider Doc12 to be among likely elims, but I didn't necessarily want to start a bandwagon so quickly. I invite others as well to share their own reasonings.

EDIT: I forgot to respond to Doc! @Doc12, that sounds like solid reasoning for why you voted on Straw. How do you feel about his alignment now?

I am going to leave my vote on you, but that might change once I review your posts a bit more.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Elandera

[Elandera]

I've been able to review posts from Doc12, Jondesu, and Rathmaskal to dig deeper into my gut reads. (Sorry for the double post. It's been a few hours and I've been trying to see if someone else would respond, but I'm running out of time.)

Rath, I officially remove you from my suspicion list. Your interactions with Rand seemed genuine villager. 

As for the other two, I'm leaning towards them both being elim.

Jondesu - I'm most suspicious because of the interaction with Randuir at the end of D2. He placed a vote on Doc12 that seems to me like a distancing tactic (saying Rand and Devotary we're both village and jokingly that the vote was a scheme by Doc12). Randuir followed it with short-lived vote on Jondesu for too much pre-knowledge. Both of those posts feel like distancing to me. If you want to read them, they're on pages 17 and 18 of the other thread.

Later interactions between the two included Rand casting the same kind of suspicion onto Jon as he did on to Elenion. Slight reads based on small things, almost mentioned in passing. It wasn't enough to draw attention, but would be enough to distance themselves should one of them flip elim.

Doc12 - Reading through his posts didn't make me feel any better. His interactions with Rand and Elenion feel very much like those between Rand and Elenion themselves. In each case, they mentioned keeping an eye on the other, but they never acted in it.

Neither Jon nor Doc voted on D2 or D4, when Elenion and Bort were lynched. Doc didn't post at all D2. Jon made a few posts, but nothing really substantial and all when Elenion wasn't in much danger of lynch. I will say, however, there were a lot of people who didn't vote that cycle (Elenion included), which is why we ended up getting our first elim with only three votes.

Of the people still alive, Walin and Manukos(ElephantEarwax) have placed no votes at all.

Snipexe, Jondesu, Doc12, Val, Elandera(Coop772), Burnt Spaghetti (MarkIV), and Elbereth have not placed a vote on a confirmed elim. 

HH, Straw, Mr. Doctor, and Rathmaskal have all placed only one vote on a confirmed elim.

Fifth Scholar, Dalinar, and Sart have placed 2 or more votes on confirmed elims.

Only Sart has a perfect record of having voted on all three confirmed elims. (Drake would be on that list if he weren't mostly dead.)

I know that doesn't necessarily mean anything because of bussing, but I'm not really sure there's been any of that so far.

[Fifth Scholar]

Every post, that anyone made, referencing Rand. Every post Rand made.

(Not even joking, though I only got through Rand’s posts for now. He’s very prolific)

Shakespearean line notation is used throughout. If you wanted to find Rand’s twelfth post of the first cycle, enter in “I.i.12” in the “find in page” on Google Chrome and you should find it quickly. As this is more of a collection or glossary than my own personal analysis, you won’t see many of my thoughts in here. Warning: random quotes from Macbeth may suddenly appear. 

Section I: Randuir’s posts

Section I, Part i: Cycle 1

I.i.1. Remarks on random voting. Distancing with Elenion, poking him to get “game discussion” about Elim numbers and LyLo. Remarks on Max being more useful to the Elims than to the villagers. Wishes for giant to claim if they’re about to be lynched (probably so they can elim kill him).

I.i.2. Explains acronyms, and quickly retracts his Len vote. Comments on elim numbers which were almost certainly WIFOM. Asks for a rule clarification.

I.i.3. Tries to provoke discussion on whether or not Westley should use their kill to double-tap lynched people, particularly getting a response from Len. Tells Araris that he wanted to start in-game discussion.

I.i.4. Continues to clarify his position on Westley using their kill on the person lynched, in response to Len. Not much to glean here considering that kill vanished at the start of cycle 2.

I.i.5. Responds to Bugsy and accuses him of opportunism in his “accusation” of Araris starting the whole Len/Araris/Bugsy/Rand debacle, which we can actually look at clearsightedly now that we know the alignments of everybody involved. Basically tries to get someone to start a Bugsy mislynch.

I.i.6. Agrees with an analysis of Doc12’s. Hedges his position on Len for the first time, and distances from Bort (calling him out for a vote on Walin that randomly tied Walin for first). This gives me a slightly better read of Walin.

I.i.7. Remembers to submit his iocane orders (more’s the pity). Calls out people who haven’t contributed game thoughts, such as Kidpen, in order to maintain an activity-encouraging village façade.

I.i.8. Again attempts to draw suspicion away from Len, asking Bugsy why Araris or Len would act so aggressively as Elims with their votes on him.

I.i.9. Says it is in Eliminator interests to fake progression of thought (wouldn’t he know). Tells Bugsy that a “setup” for an Araris vote would help elim!Bugsy.

I.i.10. “Backs off” on suspicions of Bugsy after a comment of mine.

I.i.11. Asks Bugsy, in essence, whether it’s more suspicious for a person to be pushing a mislynch for a long time, slowly building up to it, or spontaneously joining it with decent reasoning. In my view, it looks like he’s trying to help out Len, who had “spontaneously” joined the Bugsy lynch.

I.i.12. Analyzes some people.

Walin: reads him as neutral. Finds his comment about Max strange.

Araris: mildly village-reads. Not much to glean here.

CadCom: criticizes him for his Straw vote and retraction, which may have bearing on Straw’s alignment?

Eternum: claims he doesn’t like his vote.

Elenion: hedges his read and distances

Roadwalker: believes his Max claim

Doc12: Neutral-reads, says he likes Doc’s analysis.

Bugsy: Posts a lot of fluff then says that he mildly suspects Bugsy.

After all his analysis Rand votes CadCom, away from the main lynch, and gives five suspects in order from his greatest to least suspicion, the first four of which are village and the fifth is Len. Yay for distancing.

I.i.13. Posts a fluffy post that moves his read on Bugsy to neutral and signs off.

I.i.12-13: The Three Witches: “Fair is foul, and foul is fair;/ Hover through the fog and filthy air.”

[N1 start]

I.i.14. Noncommittal response to Araris lynch. Pokes CadCom and Eternum to explain certain votes. Says if Araris flips Elim (doesn’t matter). Says if Araris flips village he wants to examine the voters on him. Likely no more than one Elim in that group.

I.i.15. Response to Doc12 about what’s AI for him. Not much to glean here.

I.i.16. Asks me why I felt it was necessary to lock in an Araris vote.

[End N1]

Section I, Part ii: Cycle 2

I.ii.1. Says he would have expected the Elims to try to shift the conversation away from the Bugsy/Len/Araris exchange if there was an Elim among them. Tries to draw suspicion away from Len and onto CadCom.

I.ii.2. Compliments Mr Doctor on his analysis. Says his neutral stance was the result of a narrowly focused D1. Responds to some of Doctor’s points and there’s nothing to glean about currently-alive players there.

I.ii.3. Responds to Eternum, telling him he thought Eternum’s vote on Araris was serious.

I.ii.4. Advocates against Westley claiming. Does reads on a few people:

Walin: maintains his neutral read.

Bort: neutral read, asks him if he thought the Araris lynch had merit.

EE: “Hasn’t posted much, please be active” kind of read.

Thanks for all the neutral reads, Rand!

I.ii.5. Says confirmed villagers are easy elim kill targets. That’s very true from the pattern of kills so far.

I.ii.6. More reads.

CadCom: neutral read, says his analysis of me is fair, asks CadCom what made him conclude I was Elim

Devotary: slight elim read for protecting Araris and accusing Bort.

Eternum: Slight elim read for his flip-flopping on the Araris vote.

HH: Lists a bunch of village-y stuff then puts him down as neutral.

This readslist is also, currently, basically useless.

I.ii.7. More reads, a bit more useful.

Snipexe: Lists as neutral, wants opinions from him outside of Sart.

Fifth: Says my Araris vote is odd but more likely to come from a villager. Says I’m evil if Bugsy is, and that I hadn’t been directly reading anyone. Final conclusion is of course neutral.

Jondesu: Another neutral read, wants to see more AI stuff from him. Asks for a clarification.

Len: Does another hedgy analysis of him that winds up being a “slight elim” read.

I.ii.8. Says he doesn’t disagree with Eternum that Len’s village read on Araris was strange.

I.ii.9. Says he doesn’t care if Cycle is extended, announces inactivity for next two days.

I.ii.10. More reads.

Doc12: Says he needs to keep a “close eye” on him, says tone is good but everything else is neutral.

Dalinar: Neutral from lack of content, pokes him to say more.

Bugsy: Another neutral read, says he feels better about him now than initially.

HH: Modifies read to slight village because he knew Roadwalker was Max.

Straw: Slight elim read for lack of content despite many posts.

I.ii.11. Final reads.

Mr Doctor: Says he’s insightful but that certain things are making him paranoid. Puts him as neutral.

Rebecca/Coop/Val/Mark/Rathmaskal: Says too little content to get an actual read. Also draws neutral reads on Sart and El.

Proceeds to complain about general inactivity. Says elim reads are Devotary, Straw, Len, Eternum in order. Votes Devotary and hedges his read on Len a bit more.

I.ii.9-11. The Sergeant: “Doubtful it stood/As two spent swimmers that do cling together/And choke their art.”

I.ii.12. Says he’s trying to keep a wide focus before voting on anyone.

[Start of N2]

I.ii.13. Asks people to be active voters, and promises later analysis of the end of N1.

[End N2]

Section I, Part iii: Cycle 3

I.iii.1. Complains about votes on him while he’s unable to respond. Votes Jondesu for clearing both him and Devotary.

I.iii.2. Votes Devotary to send the lynch to iocane.

[Begin N3]

I.iii.3. Joke post.

I.iii.4. Says he has no problems with an extended cycle.

I.iii.5. Suggestion for how to extend cycle.

I.iii.6. Responds to Bugsy’s post about why Westley should claim early. Clarifies his positions on HH and Devotary, two basically confirmed villagers. Defends his vote on Devotary. Requests that people begin to vote more. Asks a ton of questions which basically say “don’t lynch me.” Nothing really notable in the questions themselves, I’ll look at answers in the “reactions to Rand” section.

I.iii.7. First Witch: “‘Aroint thee, witch!’ the rump-fed runnion cried.”

[End N3]

Section I, Part iv: Cycle 4

I.iv.1. Comments on how quickly people believed the roleclaim by Devotary. Supports Bort, then looks at the four people that believed Devotary’s claim. Gives a pass to Rath and Dalinar, complains about Sart’s vote switch but doesn’t really pursue him, and accuses me for trusting Devotary too quickly.

I.iv.2. Says he would false-claim as an elim if he was up for a lynch, which is a lie because he never claimed giant. Says the timing of Devotary’s claim led him to distrust it, not the claim itself. This post is mostly useless for current reads.

I.iv.3. Says he’s been analyzing broadly because it’s hard for him to narrow down the pool of suspects. Promises later analysis of Elenion.

I.iv.4. Acknowledges my long case against him, not really defending himself but just saying “my hedginess was how I actually felt,” then immediately pivots to an accusation against me for “dropping” my suspicions of Len D2. Votes on me for this apparent lack of suspicion I exhibit, and for trusting Devotary’s claim. Reads Straw’s interactions with Len as NAI.

I.iv.5. Responds to some of my points against him, saying I had never definitively stated a read on Len during cycle 2. Keeps pushing the narrative that I had prior information about Devotary’s flip and was therefore able to believe her claim more easily, and says the timing of her claim would be convenient for Elim!Devotary. Explains why he voted so late.

I.iv.6. Clarifies a question from Mr Doctor, and advises against analyzing individual elim kills, which makes me think we should start doing that.

I.iv.7. First real defense of himself—says he hedged Len’s alignment because he was genuinely unsure and says elim!Rand would have bussed Len. Tries to drag the discussion away from him in the final paragraph citing a desire to “move on and catch an elim” to prove himself as cleared.

I.iv.8. Short analysis of Rath/Jondesu. Reads Rath as slightly village due to lack of suspicious comments or interaction with Len. Says he wants to keep an eye on Jondesu’s voting behavior to draw clues on his alignment.

[Start of N4]

I.iv.9. Apologizes for like 8 hours of inactivity.  Proceeds to speculate on different outcomes of Bort lynch. Says if Bort flips Elim then Dalinar, Drake, and Sart are cleared, with Rath looking better and Snipexe looking worse. Asks Rath why he retracted from me, and asks Snip and Mr Doctor if they remembered Sart’s position in the Len wagon. Kinda makes me want to look very closely at Sart.

I.iv.10. Disagrees with Mr Doctor’s analysis of ties being more useful to the villagers than to Eliminators. Goes on for a while about this, saying he would break a tie if he had to. Says it’s fair to suspect him if Bort flipped Elim. Says the elim team may be poorly coordinated, so my Dagger usage is not AI for me. Continues to push for my lynch on the grounds that I somehow dropped my suspicions on Len D2.

I.iv.11. Emphasizes that lynching actives grants more information than lynching inactives.

I.iv.13-16. King Duncan: “There’s no art/To find the mind’s construction in the face./He was a gentleman on whom I built/An absolute trust.”

[End N4]

Section I, Part v: Cycle 5

I.v.1. States a few assumptions about the elim team which seem heavily WIFOM. Says Dalinar/Drake/Sart are cleared, focusing on Sart, which again makes me want to look at him. Says he was puzzled by Snipexe’s vote movement, but that it wasn’t really AI. Votes Straw for his relative inactivity and his position in the Sart/Len vote exchange. Says Walin, Jondesu and Doc would fit the profile of a low-activity elim.

Walin: gives a neutral read, calling Bort’s vote on him WIFOM.

Jondesu: puts at slight elim for his conclusion that both Rand and Devotary were villagers.

Doc12: Commends him for his early game analysis, then states that Doc’s inactivity issues seem genuine, and says he has a “hard time” seeing Doc as Elim.

After this he decides to ask me whether I’m familiar with pocketing, insinuating that was what Bort had done.

I.v.2. In response to my point, grasps at straws for reasons Bort may have pocketed him. Not helpful to current reads.

I.v.3. In response to Jondesu, asks to see examples of one of Jondesu’s crazy conspiracy theories.

I.v.4. In response to Drake, points back at an earlier post in which he accused Straw. Promises later analysis on me and a few others.

I.v.5. Responds to Doctor’s post about new Elims, saying they are more likely to have slightly increased activity by virtue of having their team support them. Says it’s harder to track because newer players in general have playstyles that are difficult to quickly pin down. Clarifies to Jondesu that he suspects Jon because he showed too much information, not too little.

I.v.6. Does a review of me where he backtracks a bit from his earlier stance, but says he’ll still keep a close eye on me. Analyzes Bort’s analysis of the Araris wagon, and says that Doc12, HH and I look clear because Rand doubts Bort would have drawn attention to the wagon if it wasn’t mostly pure. Big pit of IKYK here. Fluffily states that Bort’s interactions with Walin are somewhat suspicious but still IKYK. Pokes Straw, encouraging him to be active, and asks Rath and Jondesu if they would still vote on him if it wasn’t just a choice between him and Straw.

I.v.7. Asks Straw if he has anything to say beyond his vote in self-preservation.

I.v.8. Signs off and urges people to be active and interact with others and other village sounding meaningless words.

I.v.45-47: Lady Macbeth: “The raven himself is hoarse/That croaks the fatal entrance of Duncan/Under my battlements.”

That took a long time. I’m relying on others to pick up on this. If you find a post or quote by Rand that you think needs further attention, go look it up to get the whole thing and do some analysis. If you find a quote from Macbeth that you liked, go read the play. Or watch it. I have provided a beginning. You all must continue.

[Snipexe]

I will be voting Doc12 because everyone else’s logic makes sense to me. 

Also, @Fifth Scholar I wish I could upvote again.

[manukos]

i think i'll go for Jodensu , not that it seems relevant considering the bandwagon on doc (whose lynch i am not oposed to )
tho Jodensu's post made me suspicius of him ,(leaning elim on ppl that are prety much confirmed town ), if not those two then, HH or snipex would be my next guesses 

PS how do you feel about the rand voting on strw to make him apear vilage after he was shown to be elim ? (not rly a fan myself , but it is possible , and i would like more opinions on the topic )

[Doc12]

To be perfectly honest, being lynched would be something of a relief. I tripped over my feet in this game and have been struggling to catch up since, and I know I've really not done much and I know my votes have not done anything. If you guys decided to lynch me today, I'm sorry to say that I would be fine with that. It's not a good game ethic, I acknowledge that, and I guess this is why this is me vaguely protesting. I'd say that lynching me would be of no use, a mislynch, but my own evidence is obviously not going to do anything. With three eliminators down anyway, there's a good chance of the village winning. 

In any case, if I'm going to go out, I should at least leave behind my thoughts on each player, as insufficient as my reads might be, in the hopes that I'd have contributed something. 

Most village:
Sart - Was the deciding vote that managed to lynch two elims. Once might be coincidence, twice would be really weird. 

Fifth Scholar - Was very focused on the Randuir lynch. 

Dalinar Kholin - Was the first to suggest the Bort lynch when Bort was pretty safely flying under the radar 

Probably village:
Straw - I agree that Rand's strategy seemed to be beginning to lead the village on a mislynch streak on inactives. Straw seems cleared in the light of this.

Mr. Doctor - Has been a very vocal and discussion-heavy player, which makes me like him a lot. He's been flip-floppy and uncertain in some of his posts, but that could be just down to inexperience or my own reading of them. I'd be hesitant to promote him to mostly cleared, but he's doing good work right now. I'd need to go look over his posts to be sure. 

Elandera - I admit I'm liking your posts, you're reasonable and focus on promoting discussion. Coop didn't give us much to go on, so I have nothing on you atm, but I'm hoping you're village.Your mistake about not knowing about the roles of the Elims seems rather genuine, which helps a little in that. 

Neutral and really ambivalent

Walin - He may be neutral, but I agree that at this point we need people to put down votes and take stances. His current stance might be nonalignment indicative but it's going to hurt the village if he's a villager.

Val - Man in Black? Maybe? 

El - On one hand, I'm glad that Rand and Bort didn't get revived and their alignments revealed so quickly, as people really didn't know how to feel on them. On the other, this means that the last two or three elims might be harder to find if she becomes active and starts actively reviving people who are killed. 

Snipexe - I agree with others that his tunneling seems genuine, I'd like to see how he votes this cycle, with Sart no longer his target. (Ha, it's me too)

Unknown 

Hemalurgic - Hasn't posted enough for a good read. Voted on Rand fairly early though

Rath - My impressions seem to be....bandwagony. I may be wrong here, and this is no grounds for suspicion yet, but I'd just be wary. I would note that he did have a chance to switch from Rand but chose not to. 

Jondesu - pops up every so often with random posts and theories. I'm not sure what to think of him, though I do relate to his posts about being unable to pay enough attention and being willing to get lynched

Burnt - Nothing much yet

Manukos - Neither

As I said, I personally will not put up much defense against being lynched besides the fact that it would be a waste of this cycle, besides the fact that a lynch with only one target doesn't really give much analysis potential. Though...I admit at this point I don't really have much confidence in my reads to be truly suspicious of anyone. I'm sorry. I hope my reads might have been of help to you, and on the event of my death, I propose Jondesu and perhaps Burnt and Manukos for the next target of discussion. Perhaps Snipexe or Mr. Doctor too. Max either needs to become active now or risk forfeiting her win condition by default. The Village still has the giant, which should be helpful. 

In any case, if this is goodbye, forever, and forever, farewell, my friends. If we do meet again, why, we shall smile. If not, why then, this parting...was well made. 

[Rathmaskal]

6 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Rath - My impressions seem to be....bandwagony. I may be wrong here, and this is no grounds for suspicion yet, but I'd just be wary. I would note that he did have a chance to switch from Rand but chose not to.

That's a mildly fair assertion.  However I would say 'opportunistic' would be a bit more accurate.  I voiced suspicion on rand...then voted when there was an opportunity to lynch.  I've voiced suspicions on you...now I'm voting on you since there's an opportunity to lynch.  And, in fact, I pulled my vote OFF Fifth when that started to become bandwagony...

To reaffirm (or maybe affirm if I hadn't actually typed this out yet) my suspicions on you (doc12), I'm assuming people have probably surmised by now that I'm keeping track of voting records...  doc12 voting record:

1. Araris (lynched villager)
2. Abstain (lynched elim - this is the main one that doesn't make as much sense since it was a close vote that had plenty of time to be affected by counter votes...)
3. DoS (lynched villager)
4. Abstain (lynched elim - this was a close vote, but it happened VERY quickly at the end of the cycle)
5. Abstain (lynched elim - this was a landslide vote that the elim team couldn't have affected by voting alone)

I still stand by my assertion that at least one person from the day 1 lynch is likely to be an elim.  All 5 are still alive currently and my initial suspicions that Fifth was the elim look rather weak right now...doc12 is my current #1 suspect from that day.

[Jondesu]

6 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Jondesu - pops up every so often with random posts and theories. I'm not sure what to think of him, though I do relate to his posts about being unable to pay enough attention and being willing to get lynched

You misunderstood.  I don't want to get lynched.  I want to get someone else lynched even though I haven't done much, because my lynch would be a waste.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Doc12, Rath's analysis of Doc12's vote record seals the deal for me.

[Fifth Scholar]

Voting History of Living Players. Nothing below this line should count as a vote or retraction. Green=confirmed village. Red=confirmed elim. 

---

Walin: Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain

Elephant Earwax/Manukos: Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain

HH: Araris Valerian, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Randuir

Snipexe: Sart, Abstain, Abstain, Sart, Abstain

Fifth: Araris Valerian, Elephant Earwax/Manukos, Straw, Randuir, Randuir

Jondesu: Abstain, Abstain, Doc12, Abstain, Straw

Doc12: Araris Valerian, Abstain, Devotary of Spontaneity, Abstain, Abstain

Dalinar: Abstain, Abstain, Randuir, Bort, Randuir

Straw: Abstain, Sart,Devotary of Spontaneity, Abstain, Randuir

Mr Doctor: Abstain, Abstain, Eternum/Drake, Sart, Randuir

Val: Devotary of Spontaneity, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain

Sart: Roadwalker,Elenion, Randuir, Bort, Randuir,

Coop/Elandera: Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Walin

Mark/Burnt: Walin, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain

Elbereth: Abstain, Eternum/Drake, Abstain, Abstain, Abstain

Rathmaskal: Abstain, Fifth, Fifth, Abstain, Randuir

---

(I’m seriously voting/retracting now)

Doc12. His voting record is definitely the worst. So why am I retracting? Because I know exactly how he feels. He’s likely just had a suspicion or two wrong and is getting strung up for it. I’ve mislynched way more than he has in the past, and was still village. You know who we need to look at? Dalinar. That voting record is way too squeaky clean. Same with Sart’s—his only bad vote was the one on Roadwalker, and that was cast when it was still believed Road was Max. And who was hit by the Elim kill that cycle? Yep, him. In addition, the fact that those two have voted on the correct side of every single lynch they’ve meaningfully contributed to is almost too perfect. I’m willing to kill one of them to find out if we have a pair of very aggressive bussers on our hands. Because if we do, we’ll have likely lost the game by the time we suspect them. 

Actually, not Dalinar, Sart. The way Rand kept emphasizing his cleared nature makes him more suspect in my eyes.

Edited June 20, 2018 by Fifth Scholar

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Fifth, that's an interesting point you make, but I was under the impression that Sart was one of the most cleared players among us. I suppose you can't really trust anything in SE... But if your hunch has more to it than meets the eye, Sart might be the most complex reverse-WGG? thing I've ever seen, to willingly lynch teammates consistently to make yourself nearly foolproof to the village?

That's almost too unbelievable for me to even consider it. Though Fifth, Rand's emphasis on Sart's cleared-ness might have been an attempt to get us to question it.

I would like to see a vote count to see how ensured Doc's lynch is, if that isn't too much trouble.

[Fifth Scholar]

Basically 4 votes on Doc and my vote on Sart. And I realize this sounds very conspiracy-theory, but for some reason I believe it.  I suppose if nobody else agrees then we could go ahead and kill Doc.

[Sart]

I would rather lynch Jondesu than Doc12. He tried to save an eliminator, and we're just ignoring that? It's more of a symbolic vote than anything at this point, but I think we're putting the horse before the wagon. I suppose if Doc12 is guilty, then Rathmaskal is probably cleared. Also, Fifth Scholar, you're getting paranoid. I was getting pocketed by Randuir, but I saw through it at the end of the last cycle.

[Mr Doctor]

Unfortunately, I'm getting sick and have an exam tomorrow (woohoo), so I can't really give as much of an analysis for today's lynch.

I'm interested in seeing how Sart flips, and Fifth's theory is interesting enough that I'm tempted to see how it goes just out of sheer curiosity, but I've already convinced myself that Sart is clean. The chance that he's an Elim and has survived several lynches that have killed other Elims is just ridiculous (even though that makes Fifth's theory more enticing ).

I'm unsure about Jondesu, but I don't yet have enough on him. If I did a post on him I'd probably be able to decide one way or another, but I don't have the time or energy.

For the reasons I've got here, even though they aren't particularly conclusive, I'll put my vote on Doc12. I agree with everyone else's reasons, particularly Rath's, and Sart pointing out that we'll learn more about Rath depending on how Doc flips. Voting on Jon would be a wasted vote because everyone seems dedicated to Doc, and even if he got lynched it wouldn't reveal much about other players.

[Fifth Scholar]

Dang. I had a beautiful post lined up, but it got eaten by the site. I’ll repost it tonight, as it’s too late now.

[Steeldancer]

The day is over! The night should be up in just a second. 

[Steeldancer]

Night 6: Silence of the Doctor

“‘Guilty, you are! You helped kill Drake! He was such a pleasant person, and you killed him!’
‘I’m telling you, I didn’t do it! I had nothing to do with his death.’

‘Well, that’s what a Guard would say! So, get down there!’
The mob shoved Doctor Senfalo down the stairs. He heard growling. The pirates had discovered what appeared to be animals that the prince raised to hunt. Dangerous animals, ones that would be more than happy to eat a poor little doctor like him. ‘Please, no, don’t do this. I don’t want to be eaten alive!’
One of the pirates chuckled. ‘How can we trust you? You’re going down there. Or we will impale you.’ The pirates as a whole shoved swords and spears into Doctor Senfalo’s face. And so, Doctor Senfalo walked into the basement. He heard growling, and a panther emerged. He heard the door lock behind him. And so he ran. Not that there was really anywhere to go, for him.”
Grandpa Steel stopped, and reached for a glass of water. Alvron cocked his head at his grandfather. “Is that it?”
Steel smiled. “I figured after all the various gore and such from the last few chapters, we could take a break and not describe how Senfalo was shredded to bits by the panther. You can wait until the next chapter for more death in gory detail.”
Alvron frowned. “Isn’t this supposed to be more dramatic? More death and stuff?”
Steel shook his head. “It is exactly because of your obsession with death and darkness that I am not going to describe it. Suffice it to say it was not pretty.”

Drake Marshall was a Pirate.
Doc12 has been lynched! He is Mostly Dead.

Doc12(6)- Elandera, Straw, Rath, Snipexe, Dalinar Kholin, Mr Doctor
Sart(1)- Fifth Scholar
Jondesu(1)- Sart

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)  Prince's Guard

3. Manukos

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Pirate with a Parrot

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Drake Marshall Pirate

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo) Mostly Dead

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund) Pirate with a Dagger

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)  Prince's Guard

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Elandera

24. Burnt Spaghetti

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)  Pirate

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

[Elandera]

I'm really hoping Doc flips elim, if nothing else but to justify that bandwagon. Either way, there are still more elims out there. From what I'm reading of other's posts Jondesu is next on many people's lists. I also think we should look at the voting on D2, when Elenion was killed.

The vote should have been tied between Elenion and Sart, but someone used a rum on Snipexe. It's possible there was at least one elim vote on Sart during that cycle as it had the most likelyhood of saving Elenion. Those votes included Devotary, Snipexe and Straw. Between Snipexe and Straw, I'd probably say Snipexe was more likely to be elim.

The other probability is that an elim was among those who didn't vote. There were at least five active eliminators that turn, so it shouldn't have been quite so easy to kill Elenion had all of them been active. It's why I have been suspicious of Doc12 and Jondesu. The others that didn't vote that cycle include Walin, Manukos/ElephantEarwax, HH, Dalinar Kholin, Mr. Doctor, Elandera/Coop, and Burnt Spaghetti/MarkIV. Of that group, I'd like to hear more from Burnt Spaghetti and Manukos. Everyone else I consider at least slight village at this time.

[Fifth Scholar]

The question isn’t whether or not I’m paranoid. The question is whether I’m paranoid and right, or paranoid and wrong. And the facts all line up!

You, Sart, voted on Roadwalker, trying to kill him, shortly before he was slain by filthy Eliminators! I know what you will say! You will claim that the Elims were trying to cast suspicion on you as a part of a grand conspiracy. But you ignore the real conspiracy—the deep cover conspiracy, the IKYK within an IKYK, as you kill the person you verbally suspected hoping it will draw suspicion away from you, by the village going the first level but no farther! Filthy Humperdinck, treacherous scum!

You, Sart, killed two Eliminators out of self-preservation! I know what you will say! You will claim that you are a villager, afraid of being mislynched, and that the votes on the Eliminators were simply a way to escape the noose. But you ignore the real conspiracy—the deep cover conspiracy, the IKYK within an IKYK, as you condemn your teammates to death so that you, filthy Elim that you are, may gain towncred and become near impervious to the lynch, the village’s only kill, as well as retaining your alignment scanning abilities. Filthy Humperdinck, treacherous scum!

You, Sart, were village-read by Randuir consistently, right up until his death! I know what you will say! You will claim that Rand was structuring his heavy townreads to pocket different villagers, and to attract the wrong kind of attention to the people on his list! But you ignore the real conspiracy—the deep cover conspiracy, the IKYK within an IKYK, as Rand village-reads you knowing that the village will clear you for it, thinking Rand was secretly trying to cast suspicion, when they should have gone one level deeper! I see your outrageous lies for what they truly are! Filthy Humperdinck, treacherous scum! Rotten to the core and covered with a fair skin! FILTH! *incoherently mumbles to himself*

*retreats into corner*

(I hope that was dramatic enough)

[Rathmaskal]

1 hour ago, Elandera said:

The vote should have been tied between Elenion and Sart, but someone used a rum on Snipexe.

Sart claimed that rum.

[Elandera]

38 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Sart claimed that rum.

An understandable move. I didn't particularly care who used it, other than the probability it clears them. My point was before the use of rum, the vote was tied between who we now know is an eliminator and someone likely cleared (to nearly everyone but Fifth, apparently). One of those three votes would probably have been an eliminator trying to save Elenion.

EDIT: I thought of something else that might actually support Fifth. D2 was between Elenion and Sart, but Elenion didn't vote to save himself. I find that very odd, because he stayed fairly active. I need to go back and review a bit more, but it could be a sign that Sart is the Prince. At that time we still had the Spaniard, so having a tracker would actually have been useful. Randuir voted on Devotary and Bort on Doc12. Why did neither of them step in to try to save Elenion? It would have been easy for just one of them to place a vote on Sart. Unless they had an agreement when it started to go to Sart vs Elenion to let Elenion die. 

I need to look at Sart's specific voting patterns to be sure. (I kind of feel like I'm going a bit tin-foil-hat-conspiracy-theorist with this one.)

Edited June 21, 2018 by Elandera
Added theory.