Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Val]

The extension sounds good to me 

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

An extension or a pause of some sort would be good. It seems like an extension is more popular. I just need to be able to not be thrown into the fire swamp.

[Steeldancer]

Ok, extension of the night, the next day? I assume you want an extension of the day, as days tend to be more productive 

[Straw]

I’d personally like an extension of the night.

[DeTess]

Add a day to both?

[Steeldancer]

An extension of the night by 24 hours would be good for me, because as aforementioned, I have seminary graduation tonight- which of course I am conducting.  

Randuir, that might work too. A day added to both would give enough time for everyone to come back. I like it. Does anyone have any issues with that? 

Edited June 10, 2018 by Steeldancer

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Sounds good.

[Steeldancer]

Ok, I’m extending the night 24 hours. Here’s the new countdown

 

[Bugsy]

Ok. Going to continue my analysis

Quote

The elims know who is good and bad, yes, but the village doesn't. Anyone attaining a status of 'confirmed villager' will become a major target for the elims as that person is highly unlikely to be lynched. If Wesley instead remains alive untill the late game, revealing his role could help narrow down the suspect list even more. 

- Randuir

That's a rather big "if", Rand. Waiting until late game, when there's a solid chance Wesley will die before then, merely postpones the village getting information

Quote

You said in your post that you'd be willing to lynch Eternum for his suspicions last Day, but I find HH more suspicious based on his position in the bandwagon and the reasoning he gave for it. Why do you find Eternum more suspicious than HH?

-Elenion

As I said before, I'm reading HH as very village. This merely helps that, knowing that Len flipped Elim

Quote

So I did this analysis of Fifth because I was suspicious of him. I intend to to more analyses as the game continues, I just wanted to do his first. I still have that suspicion, so Fifth Scholar. Depending on your response, I may remove my vote, but for now it is stuck right there.

-CadCom

Hm. Could you explain what evidence in your post made that suspicion occur? You sort of went back and forth in your analysis, and I had no way how it would conclude until I saw your vote

Quote

I've talked about CadCom before when I voted on him. I can see his explanation for it being a bit of a D1 joke-vote, but an elim would probably say the same thing. His analysis of Fifth is interesting, but I have a bit of trouble seeing how he comes to his conclusion. Unless I'm mistaken, he puts a bunch of stuff down as NAI, as well as some stuff as village or elim that seems to balance out. @Cadmium Compounder, could you maybe make a short summary of your long analysis post in which you explain what made you decide Fifth was suspicious?

-Rand

...I swear, I had no memory of this post from my previous read-through when I made mine

Quote

His reasons for voting Araris look reasonable, given that he'd decided to focus on that group because they where the loudest discussion. His response to suspicion from elenion seems very village on tone. I'd also expect an elim to be scrambling for ways to get the suspicion off hi, or finding ways to turn it against someone else, rather than acknowledging it as fair.

I'm reading him neutral for now, and hope to see more content from him to be able to refine that read.

-Rand

Any reason you don't read him as village? I feel like you listed a few village things, and then came to a conclusion of neutral

Quote

Villagers actually do have it, while elims cannot. However, they can appear to have it. The difference is that elims have to plan it all out, thus making it more likely to seem "artificial" if they're not careful. Also, it coincidentally takes more time. It takes an obscene amount of effort to make something sound genuine if it's not. So, any posts like as CadCom's should be thoroughly scrutinized. All posts, imo, should be thoroughly scrutinized, but if I'm not willing to do something then I won't genuinely suggest it, and I lack both the patience and time necessary to do such a thing

-Eternum

This is the case, yes. That actually brings up something interesting - CadCom didn't, as far as I saw, have a distinct train of thought from one point to another, he addressed each of Fifth's posts in isolation and then made a conclusion that didn't seem predictable based on his analysis. This could be an error in attempting to portray progression of thought, possibly.

Quote

I think I’ve told you this before, but I don’t have a better idea of what I’m doing than most people here. I’ve only been playing for a few months more than you have, and most people here that aren’t brand new have a lot more experience than I do. 

-Fifth

In your first game you did well enough I didn't believe you were a new player. I think you're a bit hard on yourself  

Quote

While I felt worst about the way Len jumped on Bugsy, Araris wasn’t looking the greatest to me either, so in addition to information gathering I also voted based off my slightly bad read of Araris. Had I been voting for pure information, I would likely have voted Bugsy, as his flip would give more info on Araris and Len than Araris’ flip. Again, I’m not really sure how you see this as Elim-y. 

-Fifth

I'm reading this as village. Fifth had an opportunity to create chaos by boosting me and Aonar to similar levels of votes, which could have meant we wasted 2 turns lynching Aonar and then me. Instead, he expressed suspicion of Len (and thereby a degree of trust to me) and voted for Aonar to get information without killing me or letting Eliminators manipulate to do so. That feels like a village train of thought, especially knowing what we know of Len's alignment

Quote

I’m more in the camp that information on vote manipulation is only useful if it’s somehow traceable to the vote manipulators

-Fifth

This is very true

Quote

Eh. Admitting guilt isn’t really alignment indicative either way unless it’s a straight-up confession. It would have been stupid of me to try to distance myself from the Araris lynch, regardless of my alignment, given my earlier comments.

-Fifth 

While true, some Elims have a hard time doing it genuinely. They'll be over the top or far too reserved, instead of it feeling natural. I'm not convinced it's alignment indicative for you, but it could be for others

Quote

On another note, you can't be consistent if you don't know your own playstyle!

-Eternum

Not knowing your playstyle means you don't know what to avoid  

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles." - Sun Tzu

Quote

I've been throwing a fair amount of shade around this cycle, but for now I'll vote for my first (and biggest) suspicion, Elenion.

-Eternum

Hmmmmm. This is an interesting dynamic. Given that Len was defending Eternum earlier (although possibly out of an effort to pin HH?), I could read it as distancing, but I don't think it is. It wound up resulting in Elenion's lynch, and I don't think his team would bus him this early

Quote

My biggest problem with Len's read of Araris is that Araris made a joke. The post that gave Bugsy a miniscule elim read was apparently taken by Len as a village tell for some reason, when it should be completely NAI as simply humor and nothing more. I might be tunneling at this point though, so I'll go to sleep and look at everything again in a new light tomorrow

-Eternum

Doubling down on Len makes me less suspicious of Eternum. He could have backed off instead of defending his stance, and he'd still have something to point to as evidence that he once expressed suspicion of Len once he flipped Elim. He did leave himself an out in terms of the next day's analysis, but I'm reading it as if Eternum and Elenion aren't w/w, and since we know Len was an Elim I have a slight village on Eternum

Quote

If Bugsy and Araris turn out to both be village, I would not be surprised if the elims didn't feel a need to ensure that Araris hung. HH and Fifth Scholar especially hadn't said much that day cycle, so if either of them are evil with a village Bugsy, they would not have been obliged to decide which way the mislynch swung. An evil Bugsy would put more suspicion on them, I think. It would also make it more likely that the dagger wielder works for Prince Humperdinck.

-Devotary 

I rather agree with this. I don't think HH or Fifth are Elims, based on previous analysis, and this provides some good reasoning to back it up. 

Also, I don't really have any strong opinion of Devotary, for some reason. I'm not getting a good read

Quote

Analysis for me is hard. I'm trying to read everyone's posts, but so many different lines of thoughts have me confused. I should probably grab a paper, or open a Word document, and write down some stuff

-Val

That can be useful. I also (obviously ) find it rather useful to do a long series of multi-quotes so I can respond on a point by point basis

Quote

Right now the best info lynch would probably be Fifth, because then we could get reads on CadCom and Rathmaskal, plus any other players that Fifth interacted with. However, Fifth is a good analyst, and I don't think I'm willing to kill them for the sake of info alone. Maybe for the points against them, but not solely as an info lynch. Right now I'm going to hold my ground on HH being suspicious, but if I don't get any support in the next 11 or so hours I'll switch my vote to someone else with an analysis-based vote on them (right now Fifth or Eternum), because I have to work from then until turnover.

-Elenion

...I feel like this has to have some bearing on alignment of Fifth and Eternum, but I'm not confident my analysis is up to it - this is prime WIFOM territory

Quote

So there was an RP that I didn't paste. Basically this post gives me a moderate village read on Len. Reasoning: He is provding information that would be beneficial to Elims if it was kept secret. At least this early in the game. 

-CadCom

What information is that?

Quote

Overall, I feel the response wasn't thought out enough to be Certainly Elim, but it also was thought out too much to make it a certain village response. combined with all the other posts so far, I am going to put you as very slight elim, like 51-53% Very small

-CadCom

Hmm. I would have considered that aspect relatively minor compared to other avenues of suspicion against Len that you took to be NAI, but this is showing progression of thought and leading you to the correct conclusion, so I don't find it suspicious. Just interesting to see the thought process

Quote

I told Fifth Scholar That I would remove my vote from him, so I am going to do that. I will, for now change it to Elenion. But please, Before anyone else votes Elenion, Do an analysis of Bugsy. I noticed that today, there has been a lot more discussion on Elenion than on Bugsy. First, everyone thought he was the man in black, then he said he wasnt. I want to point out that my vote on him is from D1 information, and not much from d2, because I was running out of time. 

I will try to get back to this later today. So Hold tight, Len, My vote might change

-CadCom

I... don't know what to think of this. On one hand, you keep an out for yourself and request that others don't vote on Len, but on the other you vote on him yourself.  Anyone else have more insight into this post? It feels like it relies on a lot of context, and I'm interested in seeing other interpretations

Quote

It's almost a 5 way tie for first. All I have to do at this point is remove my vote. And Honestly, I'm considering moving my vote to Bugsy after I analyse his posts more closely. If I do that, then it would become a 6 way tie...

-CadCom

So, CadCom's vote puts Len in the lead with 2, and he leaves an avenue open to make it a widespread tie at 1. This sort of goes with the previous. Anyone have any insight?

Quote

However, I do note that Bugsy hasn't really posted much today apart from speculation about the dread pirates identity. @Bugsy, do you have any current suspicions that you are willing to share with us?

-Rand

Sorry about that. Hope this post helps  

Quote

A quick intermezzo , regarding something I only just noticed on a re-read. HH apparently knew that Roadwalker wasn't Max, which makes me elan a bit mroe village on him. I can't really figure out why the elims would have hit roadwalker unless they believed his Max claim and wanted him out of the picture quickly, so if HH had been an elim and knew that, then I can't figure out why they would have hit him anyway. @Hemalurgic Headshot, did Roadwalker say anything else in that PM that could explain why the elims would have hit him?

-Rand

Glad to see HH getting some defense. I had noticed that myself, and I'm pretty solidly village on him

Quote

Well! I was the Man in Black

-Val

Ok, I suppose my solid village reads are now Val, Fifth, and HH

Quote

He's also making me paranoid because he seems to really know his stuff, but I'm just going to assume he did a bunch of reading in advance. I found it odd how apologetic he seemed about the Araris lynch before Araris had even flipped, and how odd he found the kill on Kidpen. He wouldn't be the first new player to be put off by the general bloodthirstyness of this game though.

-Rand

To be fair, I found the kill odd as well. It seemed as if the kill, being the only vig kill of the game, would have been better used on a target of suspicion, but *shrug*

Quote

My current elim reads are Devotary, Straw, Elenion and Eternum, more or less in that order form most to least suspicious, but I have no hard suspicions on any of them right now. In fact, I'm tempted of borrowing Alvrons trick from MR29 and rolling a  4-sided die. I won't do that though. I'm going to vote on Devotary, as his slight defense of Araris still feels off to me, and partly because process of elimination drops the other 3 for this cycle at least. I feel like I end up lynching straw just about every time I've got no better idea, I've got a PM with Eternum that's given me a not-horrible gut-read, and I feel like Elenions posts today have been better than what made me initially suspicious of him.

-Rand

Hmm. Could you cite some specific stuff Devotary has said? Like I said, I'm having trouble getting a read.

With regards to Straw, I haven't seen much alignment indicative stuff myself, although in retrospect Elenion's reaction to CadCom's random vote on Straw is very amusing if Len and Straw are w/w

Quote

There's really only so much you can gather in the first cycle or two regarding anyone's allegiance, regardless of what they say in a thread.  I'm relatively certain that the majority of the people here are skilled enough in this game that they can manage a considerable amount of deceit via what, in this situation, is a text-based social deduction game. 

-Rath

While true, especially compared to people who don't do SE (I'm not particularly good, here, and I decimate my classmates in Werewolf, as I'm sure you'd all do as well ), there is still grounds for analysis and use of text based analysis. If you ignore it the first cycle, you start the second in the same position. You essentially have to make a down payment on analysis the first few cycles of the game, and hope it pays off.

Quote

Between two different games, I could legitimately just copy/pasta certain responses and if everything is taken at face value, it would appear my allegiances between the two games would be the same. 

-Rath

Big assumption

Very few things are taken at face value here. Everything is situational

Quote

So, I don't think it would be very helpful if I attempt to break down what people say, especially since I'm not nearly as familiar with everyone else as most of you are with each other.

-Rath

Only way to get better is to practice. Besides, that'll let us get a feel for you  

Quote

This is a situation where actions speak louder than words.  The recent comment regarding these games being rather bloodthirsty at the start does have be second-guessing this vote a bit, but I'm not sure why anyone would want to put the literary nail in someone's coffin like was done.  My thoughts are that at least one, likely 2 or 3, of the people who voted for Araris on day one is bound to be elim.

-Rath

I... very much disagree that it's likely 2 or 3. Given that Araris and I were the 2 leading candidates, the Elims didn't have much of an investment in selecting the target, and I doubt they'd all tie themselves so explicitly to a lynch they knew would flip village

Quote

Rand: You're taking the approach I often do in live games (and try to do consistently) of just providing consistent analysis for as long as possible before actually trying to take a side.  I'm sure it's by design so that you can continue to utilize the strategy in all games, regardless of whether village or elim, but I have little to no read on you.

-Rath

Meta analysis already? Nice

Quote

HH: Elenion's initial analysis on the day 1 lynching had me leaning elim here as well...  I still can't discount the analysis, but as Elenion's allegiance falls into question, it's also time to look for counter-evidence.

-Rath

What're your thoughts on this now?

Quote

The difference in tone from day 1 to day 2 is interesting.  Seems like once Araris was out of the game, Bugsy was able to take a step back and become a bit more calm.

-Rath

This was actually more to do with RL stuff, but the change in tone is a fair note

Quote

With a mere two items used(though my vote will ensure that more are needed), we could lose up to five players to today's lynch. As interesting as it might be to have lots of people die, it seems like it would be easy for the elims to minimize their risk by using daggers and rum to move or remove votes. I'd rather avoid a massacre of villagers, so I'll vote Sart for now

-Devotary

I've known Elims to express ignorance of the rules before, and since this post claims that Devotary is making things harder for the Elims when it's actually based on a misunderstanding, I'm not going to take it as alignment indicative. Also, I find it interesting that Devotary switched to Sart instead of Len.

Quote

I think that Bugsy had ample opportunity to defuse the situation and didn’t, which is something that I thought was noteworthy. He explained himself, yes, but focused more on the fact that Araris was going after him than the original issue.

-Mr Doctor

The "original issue" was nothing more than a bad joke, so I didn't really want to focus on that  

In all seriousness, though, I did say I was far more suspicious of Len than Araris, and I feel that in retrospect my continuing to vote on Len was fully justifiable  

Quote

No, I meant that our hypothetical elim!Bugsy organised a trap by trying to bait one of the aggressive Villagers, and Araris happened to step into it. They wouldn’t have known whom to coordinate against until someone sprung the trap

-Mr Doctor

My post originally addressed Araris, not Len, so I'm not sure how that could have been baiting Len and accidentally getting Araris?

Quote

Alright, this makes a lot of sense. An alternative theory is then that Elims can reveal information over a period of time in order to simulate progression of thought, but I guess that it’s probably very hard to fake. Yeah, you make a very good point.

-Mr Doctor

A side note is that this makes it easier for new players who are Elims, because they can show progression of thought with regards to game mechanics

Quote

I think that I’ve been convinced that voting is good, because we’ve got a lot of information out of the first lynch.

-Mr Doctor

We seem to have this discussion every game, but I'm glad it went faster this one than most  

Quote

It wasn't my item. It could have been Bugsy defending himself

-Sart

Wasn't me  

---

Ok, there's my analysis for C2. C3 coming as soon as I can do it, but class is about to end again so I need to return the computer

[DeTess]

5 hours ago, Bugsy said:

That's a rather big "if", Rand. Waiting until late game, when there's a solid chance Wesley will die before then, merely postpones the village getting information

And what information do you mean here? Wesley's identity is revealed on his death as well, and the shot at Kidpen looked somewhat understandable. It's a moot point, as Wesley claimed, but I still don't see how an early Wesley claim would help the village.

Regarding my read on HH, I believe I put him initially at Neutral because he had very little content overall. What he had seemed good, but I preferred to be careful. I later adjusted that read once I realized he knew roadwalker faked being Max.

Edit: The main thing that stood out to me with Devotary was his stated defense of Araris that wasn't backed up by actual actions. He stated that eh didn't think Araris actions where worth lynching over, but then didn't take action to prevent the lynch from happening, which made me think he might have been trying to get a bit of village cred from an upcoming mislynch.

edit:

Anyway, stuff's been really quiet right now, and that's bad. I could do more analysis, but that hasn't gotten people talking that much.  I'll have some during the day cycle, but for now I've got questions for everyone. I'd also like to once again reiterate my request that everyone vote. It gives people things to look at, and it prevents stunts like the one I pulled at the end of last cycle (though, you know, maybe Devotary was lying about being the spaniard and is actually an elim?)

@Walin, you asked Max to claim D1, and stated that you thought it unlikely that anyone would want Max dead. The elims ostensibly disagree, given their attacks on Roadwalker and Elbereth. Can you think of a reason they want Max dead, and do you think anyone here would be more likely to want to get rid of her?
@Bort, You've talked about the Araris lynch before and suggested that an elim could have pushed that lynch in the hope of getting a lynch on a villager. Do you think an elimw as among those threatened by the lynch that day? If so, who would that be?
@ElephantEarwax, let's present a hypothetical scenario: You have absolute poer to lynch one player, but if you don't use it, you'll get lynched instead. Who'd you pick, and why?
@Cadmium Compounder, you voted on me to start a discussion as you thought me and fifth where an anti-aligned pair. Why did you pick me over fifth for this goal? Where you aware I'd indicate I would be away for this cycle?

@Hemalurgic Headshot, you highlight Devotary's use of the word Massacre as making him more likely to be village. Do you think this is something the elims can't fake? If so, is there anyone thing else that has stood out about other people regarding word-choice?

@Snipexe, You mention that Cadcom's theory working so well when it's apparently incorrect scares you. Can you explain this more? What consequences does this scary theory have for your reads on people?

@Fifth Scholar, you say that it appears I am evil. Assuming you are right, what conclusions about other people could you draw? And If you've got time, what would your reads be if you prove to be wrong? (This is a question anyone voting for me tomorrow should try to answer if they've got the time, btw)

@Jondesu, you brought up quite the complicated elim ploy yesterday. It's a bit hard to judge in hindsight, but how likely to be right did you think you where yesterday?

@Doc12, How useful do you think it is to look at someone's past games to get a feel for their alignments? Are there any other people in this game you'd cosndier reading through their past games if you had the time?

@Dalinar Kholin, you brought up the problem of people being quiet yesterday, and noted that hat is very convenient if you got suspicion on you. Has anyone else shown similar 'evasive' behaviour?

@Bugsy...I've got nothing, but he's been putting in plenty of work now, so he's one of the people less in need of a question to get them more into the game.

@Straw, Are there any other conclusions you can draw from yesterdays End of Day,a part form the fact that you would have retracted your vote on Devotary?

@Mr Doctor, You complained about people voting based on very flimsy reasoning yesterday. Do you think its better to not vote at all fi you can't solidly back it up, or vote based on gut so that people can see how you voted to try and judge your alignment? As an extension fo this question, do you think elims are more likely to vote with poorly justified votes, or find reasons to not vote at all if they don't have to? (and yes, I realize this is a fairly leading question. Apologies for that, but I think this is something you should think more about).

@Val, Can you explain more what part about Devotary getting lynched doesn't look good? Do you think there is anything to be learned from that day despite an, apparently, undesirable outcome?

@Sart, Do you think it is possible for an elim to make a false claim at the end of the day if they're being lynched? Why, or why not?

@Coop772, please answer the question I asked of ElephantEarwax.

@Mark IV, Same question as Coop.

@Rebecca, Same question as Mark.

@Rathmaskal, you've made note of Eternum's position in the votes several times now. Does anyone else's votes stand out to you? Why?

Edited June 11, 2018 by randuir

[Rathmaskal]

The latest comment on Eternum was mostly musing...  On a purely voting standpoint, and you've probably noted it yourself, you and doc12 standout for multiple votes on (what are now) confirmed villagers.

We've had four people abstain for all three votes so far:

• Walin
• Elephant Earwax
• Coop772
• Rebecca

Most of that seems to be due to relative inactivity, but it's always a decent strategy to not draw attention to yourself in games like these.

Other mildly interesting commentary on votes:

• Hemalurgic Headshot was part of the initial lynch on Araris...but has abstained since then.
• Back to doc12 - votes on Araris and DoS (hopefully you're OK with that abbreviation) with an abstention in between...bad luck or tell?
• Val had the DoS vote D1 (due to a dislike of character name), but has abstained since...  Seems likely inactivity-related?
• I still don't think we've gotten an explanation from anyone as to why they used a dagger on Araris' vote D1...  I GUESS it could have been Roadwalker (since he was confirmed to be Pirate with Dagger) but that would make approximately -7 sense...
• Jondesu seemed to be playing a fairly patient game until firing at doc12 this last round...Same with Dalinar and the vote on randuir.
• MarkIV has essentially abstained with the joke vote on Walin for being at the top of the list being the only vote so far.  (Seems to be a carryover from last LG)

I'm sure I could find some other random pieces of information to look at if it weren't past the end of my lunch break.

[Jondesu]

@randuir, I honestly felt I was pretty likely half right at least, in thinking both were innocent. I’m not as sure still that it was an elim ploy, but if not, they’re surely enjoying the situation.

[Fifth Scholar]

@randuir, I believe you are evil because you voted to save yourself, against someone who had claimed a village role that would have allowed us to catch Eliminators and against whom there was no reason to try to kill. Village!Rand would have let the lynch kill him to save Devotary, in the interest of preserving a strong village role. I will not shift my stance unless Devotary flips as evil, in which case I will re-evaluate you as village. 

[Val]

7 hours ago, randuir said:

@Val, Can you explain more what part about Devotary getting lynched doesn't look good? Do you think there is anything to be learned from that day despite an, apparently, undesirable outcome?

Well, if Devotary does turn out to be the Spaniard, then it's another village role lost, which helps catch elims, as Fifth said. But we'll see if they are actually a villager or not, I guess. And for the second question... I don't know.

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Val had the DoS vote D1 (due to a dislike of character name), but has abstained since...  Seems likely inactivity-related?

I thought it was mandatory to vote, woopsies. I'll try to get my ideas straight and vote next cycle.

 

[Rathmaskal]

Realized I didn't respond to Bugsy's question:

Quote

Quote

HH: Elenion's initial analysis on the day 1 lynching had me leaning elim here as well...  I still can't discount the analysis, but as Elenion's allegiance falls into question, it's also time to look for counter-evidence.

-Rath

What're your thoughts on this now? -Bugsy

Honestly, not much more here...  HH has been relatively inactive for the past couple cycles.  The analysis still holds weight, but there's not really been anything to back it up since then...  Now, HH being relatively quiet since then COULD be due to trying to take some heat off for sure.  If I had to take a read on HH, I'd read slight elim...but it's definitely more neutral still.

[Steeldancer]

The night is over! The day will be up in a few minutes. 

[Steeldancer]

Day Four: Inconceivable

"A tragedy of the highest sort. A man with a mission, one man who wanted to right a wrong. Killed by iocaine powder from New Zealand. A true shame."
Alvron frowned. "Why'd you have to kill off the spaniard? He's my favorite! I wanted to hear the 'You killed my father. Prepare to die' thing."
"Sadly, life is not always a comedy. Don't worry, the giant is still alive," reassured Grandpa Steel.
"I never liked the giant. He's scary," grumped Alvron.
"Scary? What? That is legitimately inconceivable," Steel laughed. "Well, along with the Spaniard being dead, the Count had heard of a man named Indigo Montoya. Wanting to eliminate all possible threats to his life, he found the man in the castle."
Alvron became wide eyed. "Ok, so what happened?"
"Well, Indigo was not like his relative. He had not studied the sword, but instead studied the art of disguise and spying. He had been sneaking into places to find the Count for years, on his off time from being a pirate. On the upside, it meant that he was a lot better off than Inigo."
"Hm, interesting."
"Well, when Indigo found Inigo dead from poison, he was heartbroken. His relative, dead? Just like Inigo's father? Perhaps he could enact justice. For he, too, had heard the rumors of the 6 fingered Count being in the castle."
"So, Indigo went looking for him, using his spy skills to sneak through the castle. He was so good, that in order for the count to find him, he ended up needing the Prince's help- for the Prince was a master hunter after all. But once they found him- he was in the Count's personal rooms by then- they snuck up behind indigo and gave him a good thump on the head. After that, the Count took him to his machine in the pit, where Indigo screamed 10 years of his life away- and then died. Mostly, of course."
Alvron grimaced. "What a shame that nobody did anything about it. Now vengeance would never come upon the Count."
"Indeed," Grandpa Steel said sadly. "The spirit of Inigo's father would forever drift, vengeance unfulfilled by his family."

Devotary of Spontaneity is completely dead! They were the Spaniard. 

Cadmium Compounder was attacked! They are Mostly dead. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)

3. Elephant Earwax (Maw Wiage)

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)  Mostly Dead

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Spaniard

7. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks)

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund)

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Coop772 (Kay Oss)

24. Mark IV (Mark)

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

 

 Today's fashion is inconceivable! Whether in timing, or whatever, just make it funny and creative. The last one didn't work so well, and Alvron is still trouncing all of you. Furthermore, multiple people are at risk of dying of inactivity today. The turn is extended 24 hours, but if they do not respond by the end of the turn, they will be offed or replaced by a pinch hitter. 

 

[Walin]

Hey guys; I will be yet more un-posty than I have been before, due to adjusting to a new schedule. I'm just as not-busy as before, just at different times, and I'm learning how to budget time so that I can post rather than lurk in small intervals.

I'll maybe post analysis or that summary I said I'd give, but probably only after 24 hours.

[Dalinar Kholin]

 Randuir. Devotary has come up as the Spaniard as claimed. Randuir gave no comment to his being an important village role, and instead of sacrificing himself to the lynch decided to leave it to chance. Interestingly, if Randuir is evil, I would say it suggests the Elims do not have any vote manipulation. In response to Randuirs question, I will make a post on the subject tommorow (along with further analysis). 

[Bort]

Quote

You've talked about the Araris lynch before and suggested that an elim could have pushed that lynch in the hope of getting a lynch on a villager. Do you think an elimw as among those threatened by the lynch that day? If so, who would that be?

Quoting @randuir

I don't know. There might have been, but if so, it was Walin. The only other person was Roadwalker, and he's already been outed and killed as Fake Max. Then along comes Araris, and suddenly is a clear leader in the death count. Seemed a bit dodgy to me, and honestly, I've not been that impressed with the excuses I've heard as to why people suddenly thought it was a good idea to lynch Araris.

Also, something that strikes me as quite entertaining in this game. Why are so many people so willing to believe a claim, simply because it was made? Devotary was, at least, being honest in her claim, yet the very first claim made this game was a lie, apparently accepted by all that didn't know the truth, including the eliminators since it looks like they had Road killed for making said claim.

So, @Dalinar Kholin - Why would it seem strange to you that Randuir would throw the lynch to the iocane rules to protect himself, when we had no proof at all that Devotary's claim was true? I'd have done the same, and suspect the vast majority of players would do likewise. Would you be willing to risk your life for something that may or may not be true?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but doesn't help before the event happens, in this case, a lynch.

Dalinar. For the time being, at least. Why would you expect someone to sacrifice themselves for an unconfirmed claim?

Edit:

If what Rand points out about the day one lynch is true, then what do you guys think of Walin? Suspiciously evil, or not?

Edit 2:

I also noticed that Dalinar made a comment about vote manipulations. He's not the first to do so (I saw another a few days ago, by Fifth, I think it was), yet, barring secret roles and rules, there are no vote manipulation roles in the game. So, he either knows something that the rest of us don't, or  I suppose he might have meant that the elims had no rum or daggers, but they are all one use only, so would they have been used?

Let me ask, what would our reaction have been today, had Randuir suddenly been saved by a vote being changed or cancelled? We'd have lynched them immediately, with no discussions, and we might have been right or we might have been wrong to do so...

Actually, Dalinar, I think I've just talked myself into believing you might be right about the elims and their lack of rum and daggers. I mean, elim or not, we would have lynched Rand today, had he been saved from the last lynch by way of manipulation, so an elim team which could still manipulate votes could have used this to get an innocent Rand lynched, thus buying themselves time.

Edited June 12, 2018 by Bort

[DeTess]

Bort brings up a very interesting point regarding the speed at which people believe role-claims. Devotary's claim has proven to be true, but it was made at a point where it could just as easily have been false. there's no reason for an elim not to try a ploy .like that if their lynch looks locked in after all, as it might buy them an extra cycle, and will either reveal the real holder of thew role, or people they trust enough to claim to.

I'd seen Devotary's claim, but at that point there was now any to be certain about that, while I am certain about my own alignment. I'm going to take another look at those that where quick to trust his claim, as it's not inconceivable for an elim to accidentally slip up and betray their privileged knowledge by immediately believing such a claim. An elim would be less likely to consider the possibility of an elim ploy, after all.

Edit: Bringing this up makes me elan more village on bort, btw, as an elim could easily have just sat back while I got lynched over this.

edit2:

So, in immediate response to Devotary's claim, Rath and Sart backed off. Rath claimed that he hadn't intended to keep the vote there anyway, while Sart went with a innocent untill proven otherwise approach.

Rath had shown some uncertainty about his vote on Devotary before, but the same can't really be said about Sart. 

The night after that, Fifth was the first to jump on this as well, though by that point enough time had passed without counterclaim that Devotary's claim looked less shaky. On the other hand, if Devotary's claim had been false, there would have been no reason for the real Spaniard to counter-claim at that point, as Devotary was done for anyway.

The last one to bring this up is Dalinar, after the claim had been proven true.

Of these four, I least like fifth. Rath's response was backed by his progression, Sart's stance of 'let's see if there's a counterclaim' is understandable(but I don't like that I can't see any progression from him on me, who he then swung the vote to), and Dalinar waited for proof of Devotary's alignment before making any any conclusions. Fifth on the other hand was quick to make claims regarding Devotary's flip after he'd already died but before his alignment was actually revealed. He'd also expressed suspicions of Devotary in that cycle, and had voted on him for a while, only moving off because he thought Straw more suspicious, so I'm having some trouble believing that he immediately took Devotary's claim at face value.

Edited June 12, 2018 by randuir

[Walin]

Bill Ted was astounded. The best swordsman they had, after the previous Dread Pirate (named Westley) had abandoned his title, was dead. Bill knew the effort that had gone into his scheming for revenge, and the vehemence that Inigo had. And then he just up and died.

It was astounding, inconceivable even. The deception which the Prince’s men used was too strong.

Perhaps, was there even an attacker still among them? Of course not. The pirates would not die at their own hands; they had been trained by the Dread Pirate Roberts himself!

It was bogus about the others, though. Bill wondered whether the convincing to kill innocents was done in the open, or in the shadows...

Or if it was just an honest mistake—but that would be inconceivable.

[Fifth Scholar]

I have returned* to activity! *I’ll be pretty active until the 22nd, but from the 23rd to the 30th I’ll be completely silent, and if I’m not dead by then a pinch hitter or inactivity death will be my fate. 

Randuir simply doesn’t seem village to me. His last-second vote against Devotary was made for no stated reason other than to survive, and although Devotary hadn’t been confirmed as the Spainiard she was the worse lynch of the two, as a counterclaim would have gotten her lynched the next cycle and we would have gotten significant information from Rand’s flip irrespective of Devotary’s status as the Spainiard. Something else tells me that village!Rand would recognize this, and would let himself be lynched to provide the village with information. It is inconceivable that we allow a near-outed Eliminator live another cycle, when the lynch of said person also provides the village with a wealth of information, and the target is very suspect as well. I realize I don’t have a ton of evidence for this, but I’ll sift through the previous few Days tonight and see what I can dig up. I particularly want to revisit the Len/Rand interactions.

Finally, I understand that I’m not exactly the paradigm of activity, but people need to post more here. A mass village death due to inactivity is fun for nobody and essentially throws the game to the Eliminators, especially with the lack of discussion that accompanies it. 

[Sart]

It's inconceivable! Ridley in Super Smash Bros. Every fighter ever in Smash! It's a dream come true!

...Wait. I'm supposed to be playing a game of Mafia right now. Crap. Let me go over the arguments.

The main subject of discussion appears to be Randuir. The main argument appears to be that he killed the Spaniard when the votes were tied. Admittedly, I voted on him last cycle, but I'm not all that suspicious of him. Rather, I was less suspicious of Devotary, because of the role claim. Yes, role claims can be faked. However, there were several reasons why Devotary's claim was unlikely to be fake. First, he was claiming a unique role. If someone counterclaimed, he would have been lynched the next cycle. More importantly, he had the means to back up his claim. He was planning on using his kill last night. Considering that the Spaniard is the only one left besides the Mafia who has a kill, it would have been obvious Devotary was telling the truth. Therefore, his post read as a Cop not wanting to reveal until the last minute. I didn't suspect Randuir, but he was a better target.

That being said, I understand why Randuir posted a vote on Devotary. In this game, you can only be certain of one alignment: your own. Thus, it is of utmost imperative that you defend yourself when on the chopping block. Even if you believe 99% that the other target is another villager, it will be better than your own lynch. After all, that's what led to Elenion dying. There are some exceptions, like when the role being claimed is more important than yours. I could see myself sacrificing myself in that situation, but I can also see my survival instinct kicking in.

So, if we're writing off that argument, there's not much left against him. On Day 1, he got into a debate with Elenion. That's not total proof, but I find it unlikely that that kind of debate would occur between two teammates. Again, that's not guaranteed, but it points to Randuir being innocent. In addition, is his listings It's also killing discussion by just saying Randuir is guilty. If he turns out innocent, we'll be in trouble.

I want to put a vote on Straw. In addition to the weird gut feeling to his posts, he was also protected by Elenion Day 1. Take a look:

His voting record also leaves much to be desired. He voted for no one on Day 1, which doesn't help discussion in the slightest. Day 2, he voted for me in retaliation, which nearly lead to us saving Elenion. Further, he voted for Devotary on Day 3, with only 1 sentence worth of logic. I might be flirting with the rules here, but Straw mentioned something last night that got removed for IM reasons. @Straw What exactly happened? I would guess the GM accidentally sent the dead doc link to a Straw and Devotary PM, but that's speculation. It would be be nice to get confirmation, and it would help give us a better understanding of Straw.

[Dalinar Kholin]

15 hours ago, Bort said:

Quoting @randuir

I don't know. There might have been, but if so, it was Walin. The only other person was Roadwalker, and he's already been outed and killed as Fake Max. Then along comes Araris, and suddenly is a clear leader in the death count. Seemed a bit dodgy to me, and honestly, I've not been that impressed with the excuses I've heard as to why people suddenly thought it was a good idea to lynch Araris.

Also, something that strikes me as quite entertaining in this game. Why are so many people so willing to believe a claim, simply because it was made? Devotary was, at least, being honest in her claim, yet the very first claim made this game was a lie, apparently accepted by all that didn't know the truth, including the eliminators since it looks like they had Road killed for making said claim.

So, @Dalinar Kholin - Why would it seem strange to you that Randuir would throw the lynch to the iocane rules to protect himself, when we had no proof at all that Devotary's claim was true? I'd have done the same, and suspect the vast majority of players would do likewise. Would you be willing to risk your life for something that may or may not be true?

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but doesn't help before the event happens, in this case, a lynch.

Dalinar. For the time being, at least. Why would you expect someone to sacrifice themselves for an unconfirmed claim?

Edit:

If what Rand points out about the day one lynch is true, then what do you guys think of Walin? Suspiciously evil, or not?

Edit 2:

I also noticed that Dalinar made a comment about vote manipulations. He's not the first to do so (I saw another a few days ago, by Fifth, I think it was), yet, barring secret roles and rules, there are no vote manipulation roles in the game. So, he either knows something that the rest of us don't, or  I suppose he might have meant that the elims had no rum or daggers, but they are all one use only, so would they have been used?

Let me ask, what would our reaction have been today, had Randuir suddenly been saved by a vote being changed or cancelled? We'd have lynched them immediately, with no discussions, and we might have been right or we might have been wrong to do so...

Actually, Dalinar, I think I've just talked myself into believing you might be right about the elims and their lack of rum and daggers. I mean, elim or not, we would have lynched Rand today, had he been saved from the last lynch by way of manipulation, so an elim team which could still manipulate votes could have used this to get an innocent Rand lynched, thus buying themselves time.

Devotary's claim would be suicidal if not true. The real spaniard could claim, no village would have a reason to lie. One of them must be lying, either way we have a 50% shot of killing the right spaniard quickly. More likely he would have been attacked during the night because there aren't protect roles. Either way, he would have quickly been confirmed by either of those mechanisms. Thus, it is beneficial for devotary to remain alive and rand to die.

If they both tell the truth, Dev dies by night or is confirmed village. Better than a double lynch.

If Rand is good and Dev is bad, getting himself killed will result in a counterclaim (or even in that time period of Dev claiming could have resulted if he was lying, a notable risk to take), we eventually get a baddie. Furthermore, the evidence against Devotary wasn't great, furhter weakening this possibility. 

If Rand is bad and Dev is good, everything makes sense. Self preservation as opposed to the good of the village. In his final post on that night there wasn't even any statement saying sorry for killing the spaniard if he's telling the truth or laying out his logic of self preservation. Heck, he didn't even do that during the night. Don't you find that a little weird? No word of defense during the night for his previous actions? Even the tone during the final post sounds like a fingered elim making a last stand (:p I speak from experience, limited experience, but still experience). Until he read back and then realized that the evidence wasn't very strong and he could resume his role of getting people to contribute with a post aimed at everyone. Only when I come with a vote on him does he reluctantly take up the mantle of defending himself.

Why do I find self preservation defense wrong? Because that's what I claimed in AG 3 when I was evil, it's more half true than anything else.

Why would I expect him to sacrifice himself for a claim? Because that's an important role that could be verified through the mechanism I pointed out above. 

Consider This: If Devotary was evil. The real spaniard knows. The real spaniard has a kill, one kill, presumably to save for important tasks...like killing elims. This would be a basically 100% elim kill because no village would want to lie to everyone. The spaniard doesn't even need to claim in order to prove devotary is evil, he could just kill dev in the night, Problem solved, Randuir avenged or village role saved. @Bort 

@randuir So, what's wrong with my logic?

Edit 1: Okay, sometimes villagers want to lie, but I don't see why any village would lie about being the spaniard, not in this scenario.

Edited June 13, 2018 by Dalinar Kholin