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Sigh. I'm the Spaniard, and I'd really rather not die before avenging my father. Night 1, I scanned Cadmium Compounder for voting Straw in what might have been an attempt to kill a possible Spaniard, and because it would have been ironic for the polydactylous character and the Spaniard's cousin to be the Spaniard and the Count respectively. Night 2, I scanned Doc12 as I didn't have any solid suspicions and I could salvage a decent rhyme from that scan. Obviously, neither CadCom nor Doc12 are the Six Fingered Count.

I probably waited too long to do this, but I would have preferred to survive this lynch without roleclaiming. I still have my one kill, and I might use it today if it looks like I'm going to die. @Sart, @Eternum, @Doc12, @Rathmaskal, @Straw, would you mind moving your votes?

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This ganging up on Devotary is precisely the sort of behaviour that I said we wanted to avoid. There are very few arguments that I’ve seen that justify this dogpile. People have been voting “just because”, or because other people are doing it. I’m really not seeing why we should vote on her. It looks like people are voting in the dark because really no other options; people haven’t been all that active this cycle, and I’m guilty of that myself.

I don’t think there is enough evidence on Devotary to justify any sort of vote or bandwagon. People are outright stating that they don’t know what their reads are, and so they’re willing to vote in an attempt to get information. It’s a vain attempt, because this isn’t getting us anything. It’s spending resources that we’re getting virtually nothing out of.

As I said in my previous post, setting a precedent of being able to lynch someone without proper arguments allows the Elims to lie easier and gives them free reign. It’s self-destructive, and I’m disappointed that we went down this path so quickly.

4 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Currently, votes are tied between Randuir and Devotary, this might change in the next five or so hours while I sleep, but this thread has been so quiet... I'm throwing a vote on Devotary, mainly for her action in breaking the tie between Elenion and Sart. I agree that Straw also warrants a closer look, but I'm not going to add yet another person to the tie :P

4 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

My read on Devotary is up in the air, as you can tell from my back-and-forth reasoning. Between the two (arbitrary distribution or rather NAI vote pattern), I think I will place my vote on Devotary for now.

On 6/8/2018 at 1:19 PM, Sart said:

Well, we might as well strike while the iron is hot. Devotary of Spontaneity broke the tie and tried to kill me instead of Elenion. I'd like an explanation

On 6/8/2018 at 4:29 PM, Eternum said:

EDIT: I will suggest something to everyone: Don't focus on Devotary. We can decide whether or not to lynch her, but look back on the last cycles with the new information we have now. Analyze anyone that has posts worth analyzing. We need as many reads as possible, and this'll help massively.

 

That’s several voters that all state that they aren’t sure or that their vote might change. A lot of them have rescinded their votes in lieu of better discussion, which is good. I understand voting on someone to generate discussion, but this shows a bit of a problem. It really seems like you’re looking for an excuse, and neglecting to back up your arguments will mean that Elims don’t have to either, which makes their votes opaque, which makes it harder to spot them. If Devotary or Rand gets lynched today, what do we gain? On D4 we learn whether or not they were actually evil. What do we learn of the players? Not much, unfortunately.

I also think that the logic on Rand is a bit shaky. Other than Doc’s testimony about him in previous games, a lot of this is coming down to gut feelings. As I think I’ve made clear, this is really bad when we have multiple bandwagons forming and people are jumping on them with no reason.

And now Devotary has roleclaimed. I think that this is enough in her favour that a bandwagon against her is ridiculous, and I see that a lot of people are rescinding their votes. Good.

 

I think that people haven’t looked enough at Eternum, who I dislike as seen in this post. I think that we need more discussion on him.

On 6/8/2018 at 4:29 PM, Eternum said:

1. Forgetting the number of necessary votes for a lynch is a stretch, but it's understandable, I suppose. However. Miracle Max is actually more helpful to the elims than the village, so them blatantly trying to get rid of Max might very easily be their way of incriminating Sart. Also, alienating Max isn't the best idea, yes, but treating Neutrals as "just another elim faction" is a sadly common stance in SE and Mafia in general. I can understand where he's coming from, even if I don't agree. The fact that you're so hung up on Max says something. You realize that keeping Max alive doesn't necessarily help the village win, yeah?

Actually, he really does help the Village. When people get hit by the Elims and revived, they effectively get cleared as Village, because they got hit by the Elims. The alternative is for the Elims to kill their own player in order to have them maybe revived and cleared. If that gambit fails (because there are 2 people to revive each night), then they lose 1 of 5 players and waste a kill. Max can make certain Villagers almost immune to the lynch because of this. So he’s actually a massive asset to us in that regard.

Believing that Max is an asset is not suspicious. Trying to convince the Village that he’s a threat to us is suspicious, because currently he’s neutral, as you say, but with a massive amount of potential to help. Could you explain why you suddenly go from agreeing that alienating Max isn’t great to thinking that such a belief is suspicious? It really doesn’t make sense to condemn someone for pointing out that Max is more helpful to the Village the Elims, because frankly he is. If Elims die, they’re already suspicious and can be lynched again. If Villagers die (at least not to the lynch), they can be cleared when they come back and Elims have to waste a kill on them to get rid of them again.

 

On 6/8/2018 at 4:29 PM, Eternum said:

2. Okay, that reads slightly as trying to pocket CadCom. Especially considering you're under fire. And then we have a pretty big flip-flop, to borrow one of El's terms: You say that Len being an elim speaks for itself in regards to Bugsy, but then imply that he's an elim for.. having a vote moved off of him? Again, this was at a time when we didn't know Roadwalker wasn't Max, and I still stand by my belief that the elims are trying to toss the blame on people by associating them with Roadwalker's/El's death in one way or another. And it's very curious how you specify "moved from Bugsy  to Roadwalker". In my opinion, the fact that a vote was moved from someone is first and foremost, and to who(m?) is secondary. Again, this reads as not wanting to commit, which I find suspicious. Plus, what does Bugsy have to do with where that vote was moved?? I'm confused.

Pocketing being attempting to defend a particular player? I disagree that this is pocketing, although there isn’t much of Devotary’s argument to analyse in this regard. But condemning a Villager for being unsure about whom to trust is like condemning a fish for swimming. Villagers being unsure is what this game is about. In terms of not wanting to commit, look at all of the players that I’ve quoted up above. None of them are especially sure, but we’re not going to lynch them because of it. Elims are by nature surer, because they know what the field looks like. Pointing out that someone is wavering on an issue is more of a Village tell to me. But the way you argue it, it makes it sound like Elim behaviour.

 

On 6/8/2018 at 4:29 PM, Eternum said:

EDIT: I will suggest something to everyone: Don't focus on Devotary. We can decide whether or not to lynch her, but look back on the last cycles with the new information we have now. Analyze anyone that has posts worth analyzing. We need as many reads as possible, and this'll help massively.

Elims having some big overarching plan sounds pretty shaky to me. No plan survives first contact with the thread. If you look like you have a plan, it looks like you have more information, and that is incriminating. Framing is possible, but I really don’t think that it would come out in the way that you’ve described. If there was a coordinated discussion between Devotary and some other people, then I’d been inclined to agree with you. But there isn’t, and Devotary is on her own. I think that this vote is throwing unfounded suspicion in an attempt to take an innocent person down.

 

I don’t think that Eternum is showing the behaviour of an upstanding Villager. This isn’t going to lynch you, but you are currently highest on my suspicion list.

 

In terms of Rand, there really also isn’t enough information there. All of my arguments about Devotary's bandwagon also apply to his. Where’s the discussion? Don’t let apathy take over. If you can’t back up your argument, should you really be voting? Vote if you think so, but I don't think that you really have the grounds to do so.

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Okay, what's it with me and getting lynched when I don;t have time to respond? The last two games I got lynched, (three if I get lynched this game) I got lynched while not being around to respond to the votes at all. I've barely read through the thread to properly understand the case against me, but one thing did stand out during my short skim, being Jondesu's argument for Village!me and village!Devotary. That (assuming devotary's claim is true) shows just a bit too much pre-info.

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Night Three: Naps

Little Alv all snug in bed, starts to drift off but then raises his head;

“Grandpa Steel, make them do something!  They’re just standing around being boring.”

Sadly, Grandpa Steel had nodded off as well. And that wasn't all. Many of the characters had decided to take naps. A few lethargically accused each other of things, but nobody really wanted to make the effort to really get on someone's case. 
Several pirates declared their intention to sleep through the next day or two. 
And with Grandpa Steel asleep, and half the characters asleep, the story hardly advanced at all. 
And then, someone tripped in the hall outside, waking Grandpa Steel up.
"Captain Grumbleton and Polydactyl sat at a table. Polydactyl reached out, took 2 cups, and almost poured the iocaine poison into her own cup. But then, she changed her mind. She poured the poison into the other cup. Grumbleton reached out and grabbed his own cup, then suddenly switched. Polydactyl had no choice but to drink the cup she had just poisoned."

"Meanwhile, Elenta was force-fed a miraclpill." 

Devotary(4): Randuir, Eternum, Doc12, Straw
Randuir(4): CadCom, Dalinar, Devotary, Sart
Straw(1): Fifth
Doc12(1): Jondesu
Fifth(1): Rathmaskal
Eternum(1): Mr. Doctor

Devotary has been lynched! They are mostly dead.

Elbereth is alive!

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)

3. Elephant Earwax (Maw Wiage)

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle)  Mostly dead

7. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks)

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund)

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Coop772 (Kay Oss)

24. Mark IV (Mark)

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

red_1528671600.png

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This is my fault for not imposing standards on how PMs are labeled, which is part of why I messed up. Please, label all PMs as LG46"sender-receiver". This will help me keep them apart from GM PMs. Thank you for your cooperation. 

Edited by Steeldancer
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It appears Randuir is evil. 

I’ve got a ton of IRL stuff pop up out of the blue, part of which involves me getting a photo ID so I can get background checked by the NSA itself so I can go into a high security government coding center as part of a summer camp. It’s a very exciting opportunity, but won’t leave me a ton of time to be here the next few days unless another drastic change happens.

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Currently in Yosemite with very little internet, so likely won't post for another 24 hours or so. 

I have more to say, but as I don't have much time I'll just go with: elims, I'd love an explanation, because I'm somewhat irritated and rather confused about your actions. 

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Well, I knew that was going to be bad no matter how it turned out. Devotary seemed genuine, but we’ll see when she flips. Elbereth going down means that she had to use the Pill on herself (assuming she’s telling the truth, which I think is all but confirmed) which means that Devotary can’t be revived (someone correct me if I'm gravely mistaken). I don’t believe that she was an Elim, and even if she was, the past day was pretty bad for the Village, as I’ll get into.

People didn’t state arguments, didn’t offer discussion, and didn’t come to any sort of reasonable conclusion when the Day ended. Devotary stated that she was the Spaniard, and provided a decent amount of counterargument to the people who voted on her with justification, and yet she was still within lynching distance. I imagine that it’s an issue of a lot of people not being available to be active, and so the lynch happened with no good options.

The important thing now is to not bandwagon yet again. The vote on Rand was pretty unfair, because he wasn’t here to offer any justification and the cases against him were shaky to begin with. If you suspect him, tell us why. Even if it’s not a great argument. Maybe it’ll give everyone else some ideas that will bring more things to light. Currently we have no options, so let’s consider some.

 

Personally, I suspect Eternum the most. As Rathmaskal points out:

14 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Well, Eternum continues to be in the place at the time...voted for all three lynches.

This is supplementary to my views on him throughout this whole game. He’s been quiet, but just active enough to provide justification for his votes, and hasn’t contributed to much of the discussion and analysis. There have been prompts for him to share his thoughts more and give us a decent read on him, but in my eyes, he hasn’t fulfilled that. His post against Devotary felt shaky at best, contradictory at worst. I’ve gone into more detail here.

The crux of the argument is that he is acting in a way that is just active enough to provide an effect on the game, but not so active that he becomes transparent. That’s the easiest route for an Elim to take because it means that they don’t need to go into all of the effort of creating Village-like arguments, analyses, and posts. If they’re lucky, they slip under the radar because everyone is looking for contradictions in larger posts. I’ve already talked about how it’s better to encourage more activity and more arguments, because it makes it harder for the Elims to lie.

A Villager knows that they are a Villager. They know that they are honest. Therefore, they might fall into the bias of believing that their honesty will protect them. All they need to do is provide as much information to people analysing them as they can, and honesty will be shown. In a lot of cases, this can work, and in my mind it's a tell of Village-like behaviour. An Elim has to either feign honesty, or be honest about specific things. Naturally, that’s harder. When under pressure, it’s in a Villager’s best interests to provide plenty of information to show that they have nothing to hide. That would be done in the form of responding to votes and suspicions laid against them.

Eternum hasn’t done this. He’s remained in his semi-active state, and I’m starting to wonder about why. Is he actively avoiding analysts like Elbereth? Does he feel that if he is forced to defend himself, it will wrongfully incriminate him for some reason? If he knows that he is innocent, the best way to prove it is to become more active. It’ll give us more to work with, and if he is innocent, then we should be able to read that in his words.

 

I said that I'd mention a post of Sart's, and here it is.

Quote

I don't like defending myself, since I'm usually bad at it, but it's a necessary evil. Straw is off the hook for now while I vote on Elenion. He's been active and tried defending Araris, which seems like a villager thing to do. However, I know that I'm a villager, and he's the only one I can vote on to tie up the vote. In regards to the Day 1 vote on Roadwalker, it was mostly for meta-game reasoning. A role that negated a kill each cycle seemed not that fun, and would delay the game more than I would like. I would note that no one voted for Roadwalker besides me. I know this is getting into mind games, but why would I do that if I were Evil? It nearly killed me Day 1. I could have instead joined on one of the lynch trains to select my choice of victim, or I could have kept my mouth shut and blended into the shadows.

The Night 1 kill is more interesting. There are two scenarios I could see happening. In one case, the Elims learn that Roadwalker is not Miracle Max, possibly by his own words. Claiming that role could have meant that Roadwalker was hiding a village role. In that case, they had every reason to kill Roadwalker. Even if he didn't, Roadwalker would still gather lots of information for the village, which is something they wouldn't want. In the other case, the Elims think Roadwalker is Miracle Max. To be honest, I think Max is more helpful to the Elims than the villagers, but that's my opinion. If they felt threatened, they could only kill Max that night, so it was a shot worth taking. In either case, I didn't need to vote on Roadwalker. I did vote on him though, and I stand by that vote. Judge for yourselves, and if another bandwagon happens, I'll probably jump on it. Like I said, I don't suspect Elenion that much.

Sart’s reasons for voting seemed…strange in this post. Self-preservation is certainly a good enough reason, but it would be nice to hear that from Sart himself.

In terms of his arguments for Elenion: defending Araris was not necessarily a Village thing to do even though Araris was Village, unless Sart is saying that everyone who voted on Araris was an Elim, which is infeasible inconceivable. Any Villager who defended Araris would not have known that Araris was Village, and so there was nothing but the weight of Araris’s own arguments to go on. Sart hasn’t offered his opinion on those anywhere I can see.

The second point of Sart’s is about self-preservation. This makes sense, you can only be certain that you are Village, and so naturally it’s not worth letting a lynch happen on you when you can prevent it. No issues there.

I don’t like the vote on Roadwalker D1, or at least I don’t like these reasons for it. A longer game means that more information can be brought to light, and more chances for the Elims to slip up. Assuming random lynches every cycle, this is a war of attrition where one side outnumbers the other significantly, and therefore is favoured the longer things go on. But it isn’t random lynches, it’s information gathering, and longer games mean more information, which makes it harder for Elims to provide consistent lies. I’ve also already mentioned how Max can give us people who are all but confirmed to be Villagers by resurrecting those hit by the Elims. So why is Sart threatened by Max?

As for why Sart would have voted on something which almost got him lynched, I’m not sure how good this defence is. He couldn’t have known that people would react the way that they did. And frankly, if several people distrusted him because of it, I’m willing to consider Sart in a worse light because of it, because they might have seen something I didn’t.

There is a saving grace, however: why would Sart vote on the apparent Max when the Elims could (and did) reliably kill him that Night? It did indeed draw a lot of attention to him, which definitely helps Sart’s case.

So, what does this mean about my opinions of Sart? Well, his reasons for voting on Elenion are logical (bear in mind that I'm considering the information level at which Elenion was not known to be an Elim), but self-preservation really isn’t enough to save him from the fact that it looks like he’s distancing himself from an Elim and ensuring which one goes down. Perhaps they agreed that Sart would be able to escape scrutiny better than Elenion, and so Elenion took the fall.

I’d like some more justification from Sart. He’s on the watchlist, but he’s not going to get a vote from me until I know more.

 

I’m going to take a look at the arguments against Rand, and see whether or not I agree with them. My feelings from yesterday were that they really didn’t justify the lynch, but we’ll see.

Cadmium Compounder

Quote

That seems very typical of Rand, but I also do remember reading a couple of times that Rand is a difficult player to read. 

 

SO... I came to the conclusion that either @Fifth Scholar is Elim, or @randuir is Elim. I want to start a discussion, so I am going to place a vote on Rand for now.

(Rand, depending on how the discussion goes, and if I have time to get back on, I will remove that vote. I would like to continue to work together, but I just want to get some discussion going hopefully.)

 - CadCom, here

Does being difficult to read make him inherently bad? I suppose so, and I would probably argue something similar given my thoughts on the Village honesty bias that I mentioned earlier in this post, because that’s what I’ve observed in myself. But Rand is probably a skilled enough player that he doesn’t fall prey to that bias easily as a Villager, and would probably get more out of analysing and sharing his thoughts than hoping that someone sees something honest in his posts. It’s a matter of brute-force versus crafting responses to prove trustworthiness. I imagine that is what makes him hard to read, because of the level of lucidity.

I agree with this the most, although I would have liked to see more of how you got to that conclusion @Cadmium Compounder. If I've missed a post of yours that explains it, please point me there. Your analysis so far has been good, and I'd like to see what you have to say about Rand.

It’s worth noting that this discussion never happened, and CadCom never rescinded that vote.

Dalinar Kholin

Quote

 Randuir. I agree that it was odd he was suspicious of Elenion, yet ended up not voting for him and eventually came to the conclusion that Elenion wasn't evil. Also, @randuir , and anyone else in the thread. They've been very quiet this cycle, which seems a convenient time when they have some suspicion on them. Did they say they have irl stuff going on? If Randuir is good I think we should vote for Devotary, but my gut says Rand.

 - Dalinar Kholin, here

I agree with this. He did seem to shy away from voting on Elenion despite having suspicions. Acting on a gut reading, yes, but there isn’t much to go on. This is still early in the discussion, so it’s reasonable that this vote occurred also to generate discussion.

Devotary of Spontaneity

Quote

Four votes on me within the span of twenty minutes. This is getting slightly ridiculous. Unless they all ninja'd each other, that many votes in quick succession seems useless. As it's entirely possible that at least one of those votes was designed to protect a teammate, I will vote on Randuir for now.

 - Devotary, here

Self-preservation here. It’s reasonable to vote on the next-highest person in the hopes that it saves you. The suspicion of Rand being protected makes sense, also, but it doesn't have any additional reasoning.

Sart

Quote

Well that's a problem. Devotary of Spontaneity is innocent unless we get a counterclaim. I'll swing the lynch over to Randuir, to prevent vote manipulation.

 - Sart, here

Mmm… Nope, don’t like this. If Sart believed that Rand was Elim, then the only vote manipulation that would take place in the original scenario would be a Villager attempting to solidify their vote. If he believed that both Rand and Devotary were Village, then he might have been trying to mitigate damage or something. If he had neutral reads on both of them, making it an iocaine situation doesn't really gain or lose anything. I don't really know, and I'd like some explanation. The potential argument here is that Sart believed that Devotary’s claim was legitimate and voted accordingly, but Sart didn’t say that. Avoiding vote manipulation is a poor argument. This actually invites vote manipulation, as anyone with either of the two manipulator items can guarantee the outcome of the vote.

 

Looking through these, only two of them seem to justify a potential lynch against Rand specifically, and they aren't particularly detailed arguments. Make sure that the next Day has a lot of discussion before voting, and actually let the accused defend themselves. I do have my own suspicions of Rand, but it's late and I've spent long enough on this post that I'll save them for the next Day (both in and out of game :P).

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I have decided to make a small change to the rules. As it currently stands, the Max win condition is impossible to achieve. An important aspect of balancing this game was balancing Miracle Max, and I think I leaned too much towards nerfing them. Therefore, I am changing the OoA to have the creation of the pill go before the kill, and making the recovery time after being revived only a turn, rather than a cycle. I plan on discussing my thoughts on Miracle Max at length once the game is over. Thank you for putting up with me. 

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In other GMing news, I have noticed that many players will be inactive for a few days. I am willing to consider pausing the game for a day or two, or extending a cycle, or just continuing with the people still available. It sounds like everyone will be back in a few days, so I would like to hear input. Also, apparently I’m in charge of Seminary graduation tonight at 7, so I will do my best regarding the new day. 

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