863 posts in this topic

Well, I finally managed to get on again. I even forgot to make a night PM :P

We got one! I'll look at last cycle's thread later, to see what I can gather, but for now.. something that caught my eye.

2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

1. I had assumed that we would have 24 more hours to cast votes, but then with an hour remaining in the day, I learned that we weren't getting an extension after all. I then managed to forget that there was a two vote minimum for lynches, instead believing that some simple vote manipulation would be enough to ensure that up to five villagers could be lynched. Sart and Elenion were the only players with multiple votes, so I decided to vote for one of them. I chose Sart; for the Roadwalker vote and corresponding possible attempt to kill Max/alienate him from the village, because Elenion had earlier said that he wouldn't be around for rollover, and because I ran out of time to contemplate alternatives. Evidently, I made the wrong choice.

2. I think CadCom particularly is soft-cleared, especially as he gave himself an opening to change his vote but didn't. Elenion's death also makes it far more likely that Bugsy is a villager, though the fact that a vote was moved from Bugsy to Roadwalker should probably not be discounted.

1. Forgetting the number of necessary votes for a lynch is a stretch, but it's understandable, I suppose. However. Miracle Max is actually more helpful to the elims than the village, so them blatantly trying to get rid of Max might very easily be their way of incriminating Sart. Also, alienating Max isn't the best idea, yes, but treating Neutrals as "just another elim faction" is a sadly common stance in SE and Mafia in general. I can understand where he's coming from, even if I don't agree. The fact that you're so hung up on Max says something. You realize that keeping Max alive doesn't necessarily help the village win, yeah?

2. Okay, that reads slightly as trying to pocket CadCom. Especially considering you're under fire. And then we have a pretty big flip-flop, to borrow one of El's terms: You say that Len being an elim speaks for itself in regards to Bugsy, but then imply that he's an elim for.. having a vote moved off of him? Again, this was at a time when we didn't know Roadwalker wasn't Max, and I still stand by my belief that the elims are trying to toss the blame on people by associating them with Roadwalker's/El's death in one way or another. And it's very curious how you specify "moved from Bugsy  to Roadwalker". In my opinion, the fact that a vote was moved from someone is first and foremost, and to who(m?) is secondary. Again, this reads as not wanting to commit, which I find suspicious. Plus, what does Bugsy have to do with where that vote was moved?? I'm confused.

Sorry for mild incoherence, but it's 6:20 AM and I have nothing better to do :P

(Mainly) For the reasons stated above, Devotary.

(As a TL;DR: I think the elims are trying to frame people (namely Sart and Bugsy) for Roadwalker's/El's deaths, this is the next stage in their "plan": revealing these "suspicions" to the thread.)

EDIT: I will suggest something to everyone: Don't focus on Devotary. We can decide whether or not to lynch her, but look back on the last cycles with the new information we have now. Analyze anyone that has posts worth analyzing. We need as many reads as possible, and this'll help massively.

Edited by Eternum
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1 hour ago, Dalinar Kholin said:

What are your reads on Eternum, Randuir, and Fifth Scholar?

So Eternum obviously was the first one to vote for  Elenion yesterday, which is a big point in Eternum's. Also, he and Rathmaskal appear to be the ones responsible for making sure the day wasn't extended. At the time, Elenion was ahead in votes, and seeing as how there was no vote manipulation other than Sart's rum, I can be quite certain that Eternum's request for a shorter night was not an attempt to save a teammate through vote manipulation. Rather, it seems far more likely that this was the act of a villager comfortable with their vote. I would put Eternum as soft-cleared village.

Randuir has spent most of his time trying to analyze every single player. He maintained a steady mild suspicion of Elenion throughout the whole game but never voted that way, instead voting for CadCom day 1 and for me cycle 2. On that note, it's somewhat odd that he's had lingering suspicion of me for voting Bort over a lynch contender day 1. I can't quite be sure whether Randuir though Bugsy or Araris was more suspicious, but I do get the sense that Randuir preferred to vote for an actual suspicion than for someone less suspicious but more likely to be lynched. Randuir's vote did of course have the advantage of being cast early enough in the cycle that the lynch wasn't assured, and rollover is at an inconvenient time for him. He was going to analyze the Araris lynchers, but then Elenion beat him to it. Randuir's broader analysis came to different conclusions to Elenion, namely that Elenion voted for HH while Randuir largely cleared him. I'm not really sure about Randuir. It doesn't seem like he was working with Elenion, so I'll put Randuir at somewhere neutral/lean village.

Fifth started off Day 1 by voting for me, then changed his vote seven minutes before the end of the turn to ensure that no single act of vote manipulation could prevent Araris's death. Looking through Fifth's more recent games, one can see that that he would indeed rather avoid vote manipulation changing the results of the lynch, as he claimed when his vote was questioned. Fifth has never actually been evil so I have nothing to compare to, but at the very least solidifying a lynch is something he would do as a villager. In one of his long posts, he stated that 2/3 of the players had either a rum or a dagger, which we know isn't true as Kidpen died without any items. That suggests to me that either Fifth is a villager other than the Spaniard/Giant, or every non-unique eliminator has an item. He also said he doubted Roadwalker was Max, right after Roadwalker was nightkilled by the eliminators. Finally, Fifth stated he would voted for either Elenion or Eternum last cycle, before Elenion's alignment was revealed. Right now, I'm leaning village on Fifth.

6 minutes ago, Eternum said:

You say that Len being an elim speaks for itself in regards to Bugsy, but then imply that he's an elim for.. having a vote moved off of him?

I'm saying(or was trying to say), that the Bugsy/Elenion argument makes it much more likely that Bugsy is village, given that Elenion was an eliminator. However, it is technically possible for them to have staged that fight while using a dagger to make sure neither of them was lynched. I'm not saying that's likely, as spending a powerful vote manipulation tool so early in a gambit to gain trust for one of Bugsy/Len should the other one die seems an inefficient use of a dagger. I still strongly lean village on Bugsy.

15 minutes ago, Eternum said:

And it's very curious how you specify "moved from Bugsy  to Roadwalker". In my opinion, the fact that a vote was moved from someone is first and foremost, and to who(m?) is secondary.

I'm not sure where this opinion comes from? Until Fifth's vote at the end of day 1, someone with a dagger could have given Araris a 50% chance of survival by moving a vote off him onto any of Bugsy, Walin, or me. Would you then say that which one of us the dagger wielder tried to get lynched would be secondary?

I do know that keeping Max alive doesn't necessarily help the village win. I also believe that taking the time to kill Max isn't worthwhile, or even counterproductive. I probably missed some of what you asked me, so feel free to ask me again.

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-------------------------------------------------RP-------------------------------------------------

The Dead Private Hobbert came running up to the group of pirates. He’d had to detour to find some heavy-duty glue because his ear had fallen off again, and you really don’t appreciate directional sound until it’s gone.

“Don’t worry, I’m back,” he said, shoving his way through the gang of pirates. Well, he attempted to shove his way through. They parted for him on instinct, having all learned quickly that they really didn’t want to touch the Dead Private for any reason.

He looked around, counting on his remaining fingers. When he got the mouse, it squeaked and told him that he’d counted a pirate twice. So he had to start again.

“Twenty…three?” the Private asked the assembled pirates. “How many are we again?”

“Twenty-five!” someone shouted from the back.

“Naw, we were twenty-seven when we got here!”

“Nineteen.”

“Four!”

The mouse on Hobbert’s finger squeaked again, and he held it up to his ear. It let out a barrage of squeaks, and Hobbert nodded. “Then we’re missing someone. Where’s the king?”

“Which king?” a pirate asked.

“The Shree King Eelz,” Hobbert said, looking around again. “He was right here.”

The pirates glanced at each other guiltily.

Hobbert rubbed his face with a hand, dislodging his nose. “At this rate, we’ll never capture the castle if we keep on arguing! You need to stop killing each other! The Captain would sort us out, but we killed Buttercup and now he’s sulking.”

“Eelz was one of Humperdinck’s cronies, though,” a pirate pointed out.

“Says who?”

“Max. The little bugger should be around here somewhere, but he left a note that proved it.”

Hobbert felt a sinking feeling in his stomach, but this time he knew that his stomach wasn’t actually being dislodged. These were regular feelings. There were traitors in the ranks.

But a true soldier would not be deterred at the first sign of a mission becoming complicated. Hobbert slapped his nose back onto his face decisively.

“Alright, maggots!” he said. “Why are we here?”

The pirates glanced at each other. Most of them were halfway pickled, so being questioned by a walking corpse did not quite inspire thought. A few of them chortled at the irony of Hobbert calling them maggots when he had more than a few himself.

When no one offered anything, Hobbert said, “We’re here to take a castle. But why are we here?”

Again, silence. Something dripped in the dim corridors. Something dripped off of Hobbert.

“Well, I’m here because I’m a soldier,” the Dead Private said. “I’m here because when war is brewing, my soul gets grabbed by a big old meat hook and shoved back into my body. I have a purpose. That’s what we’re lacking, and that’s why we keep on killing each other.”

“…So?” a pirate asked.

“So we need to find a purpose! Dying is terrible. Try not to do it. But I can die, I can be cut up and shredded and served up as kebabs at the fair, and I’ll just come back. I’ll rise from a grave come the next war. But I have a purpose.”

Some of the pirates were looking a bit green. Maybe mentioning the kebabs was a bit far.

“If you have a purpose,” Hobbert said, “then you have so much more. You become something more. Right now, we’re all just floating in this world, but purpose gives us direction. It makes your actions shake the foundations of the world, instead of just changing yourself. A purpose is man and meaning. And meaning is worth anything.”

The pirates were nodding. Some of them were even looking Hobbert in the face, which was a big improvement. “When you have meaning,” Hobbert said, “then anything becomes worth it. Look at me, I’m a walking, decomposing lump of grey flesh and grave mud, my clothes were stolen off a scarecrow, I’ve got a mouse for a finger, my nose is stuck on with pins, my left arm with duct tape, my right ear with glue, I can’t taste or breathe, and I’m only able to talk because necromancer magics that I don’t understand are making my waterlogged lungs move. But I have purpose! I’m here because of my purpose.”

He paused, looking around the gathered pirates. “And if purpose gives enough meaning that a dead man can live, it can make us work together again.”

-------------------------------------------------RP-------------------------------------------------

Sorry that I wasn't active last Night. I've got a lot of university work to do, but I'm dedicated to making a couple of decent-length posts each cycle. I do seem to have set a bit of a standard for myself, haven't I? :P

I'll do a big analysis later today, as someone in a PM was asking about my opinions on some people I hadn't really mentioned yet, but for now I'll just leave some basic thoughts lying around.

 

Elenion was evil! When the votes were going down I wasn't entirely convinced that they were justified at all well enough, but hey, progress. First Elim death that I've witnessed first-hand. I now know that I was completely suckered when I preferred Elenion back in D1 because he provided arguments. I don't think that I could have done anything better, and the vote wouldn't have been decisive against him D1, but still...

Currently my main suspicion is on Eternum. Reasons for that should be pretty obvious based on my last post, but I'll expound on them more when I do my big analysis. Minor suspicions on Fifth, because of how he acted early-game. He was quiet for a while, then suddenly cemented the Araris vote with little justification or time beforehand. He's offered explanations, but I'm going to look at him further.

Sart is going to get a writeup, but I really don't know if he could be considered suspicious. His post where he vote-switched from Straw to Elenion just feels weird. It's also weird that his vote was integral to getting Len lynched, even though his reasons for doing so were really shaky. I don't want to imply any of my thoughts about him until I've actually written them out in full, because it's just a strange scenario.

I also want to do a deeper analysis of Bugsy. It will be good to hear his thoughts on how things have developed.

At some point in the future I'm going to write up an explanation of all of the biases that I've noticed in myself. Hopefully vocalising them will help me avoid them better, and it will also let people understand my thought processes more.

 

Not much to say on the Day insofar. Eternum has posted just as I'm writing this, but I'll leave a dissection of that until later. I hope that everyone who's voted Devotary is willing to provide good reasons for their votes. Sart's appears to be a poke for explanation, Fifth seems to understand that well, and Eternum has his reasons. While this is good to galvanise discussion, letting your poke-votes turn into real votes without enough discussion is how we get mislynches. As I've been convinced by Elbereth and others, voting is good for information gathering, but I still think that decisive votes need to be backed up. 

If we don't get arguments with our votes, then it defeats the point of voting to gather information. And that means that we're spending players and breaking trust for very little information. The scales just don't tip. If we back up our arguments, then the analysts can do their work to sort out the good from the bad. And a vote without justification leads to arguments about motive, and that's less helpful to most people than arguments about content. The number of players who can reliably pick out suspicion from behaviour is significantly smaller than the number of those who can determine if an argument contradicts itself, and so giving too little justification is reducing the number of people who can give us good analysis. And it also makes it easier for the Elims, because they don't need to act as hard if all they have to do to look genuine is write a single paragraph in a single post that justifies their vote. The Village's job is not just to analyse, it's to make the job of the Elims hard by making it harder to lie. And when they slip up, we can catch them.

 

1 hour ago, Rathmaskal said:

Well, with Elenion now out as Elim, this quote seems a bit more suspicious:

Quote

Araris was the instigator of this attack on Bugsy, and he doesn’t nearly have the saving graces that Elenion does.

That was Mr Doctor's rationale on voting Araris Day 1...

When you look at it like that, it's a fair suspicion, but this is part of my rationale, and indeed is out of context. I go into a lot of detail about it in other posts. Fifth is also correct, I took the three main players and voted based on what information I had on them. Bugsy had reacted and provided justification, and I thought that his side was correct anyway. Len had provided justification, which I respected even if I couldn't quite agree entirely with it. Araris gave comparatively nothing.

And again, as Fifth says, since then I've added quite a bit to my opinions on Len.

@Rathmaskal given the arguments that I've made for and against Elenion between that quote and now, what do you think? If you want me to explain a bit further, I'm happy to.

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Ok, I didn't actually summarize the last few cycles very quickly. I'm going to give my summary late tomorrow, while digging out some quick RP to say I posted at least something.

-----------------------------------

Bill Ted stared at the pirates around him, walking around in the hallways and looking for men to fight. It was a bogus day, with no soldiers encountered--but people were still dying. It was sometimes stabbing, sometimes iocaine, sometimes iocaine-laced stabbing, and death by bad rolls. Who would've thought that bringing all-natural rolls as rations would cause death upon eating just one at a time?

He guessed it was just the natural ones' lack of any modifiers, like style or seasoning. Either way, Bill digressed. This was supposed to be an excellent adventure, fraught with fighting and with dying, but it seemed right now that it was just dying. He had to make a Bill Save (sorry, Will Save) just from not being able to fight anyone with swordplay. He'd lost his bonuses (I mean, spoils), or something like that, so unless he rolled a nat 20 (when somersaulting down a hallway to be sneaky) he'd probably get hit with a hostile.

One that would kill him quickly, without style. Man, this was so bogus! The time machine had completely disappeared, too, so there was no going back to it and trying to fix it--and then taking a ride back to where there'd be awesome stuff. At least he was learning some history about tabletops.

------------------------------------

Sorry, the jokes in there were pretty packed. Deeply packed. If you didn't catch them, it was mostly tabletop gaming and Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure phrases and words.

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13 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Well, apparently the Elims aren’t too happy El didn’t save Len. Although with a dead Elim, I’ve got a lot more information to tinker with. I’ll see who defended or hedged against Len’s lynch, and find out if that points to anyone. 

True, We do have a lot more information. I think the Elims decided to kill El, thinking that she would have saved Len. So then it would have been one Elim saved, and upped the odds of winning for the elims. After Len was saved, they probably wanted El dead because that means she can't save any villagers. 

Fortunately for us, unfortunately for the Elims, and (kind of) fortunately for El, it looks like her plan was to wait until she had 2 miracle pills, so she could use one for herself, if needed, and one for someone else. Apparently the Elims don't like the Idea of a Neutral player helping the village wincon.

Edit: 100th Post! That's something worth living for!

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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Mr Doctor, I'm still not 100% convinced based on just your merits: 

  • Araris and Elenion I thought had very similar productive activity up to the point you made that post...the main difference is that Elenion had much more RP. 
  • Additionally, I can understand how you would think that quote was taken out of context...but it really isn't.  It's a summary of your entire post. 
  • Next, Fifth coming to defend you isn't exactly a point in your favor at this point either...but I'm starting to lean more neutral there.  Someone made the argument that an elim wouldn't gain anything out of solidifying the vote on Araris day one when the next-highest vote-getter was 2 at that point seems fair...but I also don't see any situation a villager would gain something out of that move.  If Araris had instead been a pirate with dagger, that 4 could have changed to 3 pretty easily...and moved a third to someone else, so the 5th vote was still pretty damning.

The MAIN reason I'm willing to retract my vote for now is the fact that Elenion tried to draw attention to you and HH on day 2.  Although I still somewhat agree with that analysis (you can't lie ALL the time when you're on the elim side) I'm willing to hold back for now.

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I think I will refrain from voting this cycle, because I haven't looked back at anyone's interactions with Elenion yet to suspect anyone else, and I don't think I will have time to do so. I will try to though. So I might vote, but don't count on it.

Also, I am going to be inactive this weekend. Weekends are generally more difficult for me, but this weekend I will be out of town. So expect very few posts from me. I will try to at least keep up on reading all the posts though.

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Sorry for doing a new post, but I feel like the topic is significantly different, and I'm not going to be able to contribute for much longer this cycle, and I wanted to get people to have a discussion.

I've analyzed D1, and part of N1 again, with Len being Elim in mind. In my opinion Bugsy actually did a good job at pinning Len early on in their argument, causing Len to grasp for straws, (which is funny, because I literally grasped for @Straw that cycle:P Then I let go.) 

During his time Grasping for straws, I noticed two people in particular who joined the conversation, to try to "de-escalate" it for lack of a better term. 

The first is Fifth Scholar, who did so, then near the end of the cycle retracted a vote from Devotary to put an extra layer of cement on Araris. Fifth scholar tended to side with Bugsy in the argument. Which in my opinion would be a good strategy for an Elim, Side with the Bugsy, but try to get bugsy to leave Len alone, so he can go under the radar. 

The second person that caught my eye was Randuir. I like to think I've been working with Randuir most of the game, but in SE, you can never trust even your closest colleagues. So I tried to pay attention to him as well. Randuir slowly ended up mostly agreeing with Fifth Scholar. Then, after doing that, he tried to change the topic to a lynch. Against me of all people!! :o

He later explained why he did that without any request to do so.

Quote

 

It's too early in the day for me to be rhyming,

This truly is terrible timing.

 

Anyway, the discussion centered around Araris, Len and Bugsy for most of the day yesterday. I had my own part in that, of course, but one thing I did notice is that the elims (or anyone else for that matter) seemingly felt no need to move the discussion elsewhere. I made a vote against CadCom in the second half of the day, both because I thought the way he went after straw looked odd and suspicious, and because I wanted to see whether people would jump on a  fourth option outside of the main discussion or not. That vote got pretty much ignored, but if the elims believed one of their own was getting an uncomfortable amount of attention, I would have expected them to try and move discussion away if given a decent excuse. I'm not ruling Bugsy or Len out as elims right now, but it makes me feel a bit better about both of them.

More in depth analysis will follow in about 8 hours or so once I'm back from my internship.

 

That seems very typical of Rand, but I also do remember reading a couple of times that Rand is a difficult player to read. 

 

SO... I came to the conclusion that either @Fifth Scholar is Elim, or @randuir is Elim. I want to start a discussion, so I am going to place a vote on Rand for now.

(Rand, depending on how the discussion goes, and if I have time to get back on, I will remove that vote. I would like to continue to work together, but I just want to get some discussion going hopefully.)

Edit: I know that this analysis is much shorter than my other analyses. But I don't have a whole lot of time this time around, sorry about that for those who were looking forward to my next long post.

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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4 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

The first is Fifth Scholar, who did so, then near the end of the cycle retracted a vote from Devotary to put an extra layer of cement on Araris. Fifth scholar tended to side with Bugsy in the argument. Which in my opinion would be a good strategy for an Elim, Side with the Bugsy, but try to get bugsy to leave Len alone, so he can go under the radar. 

Uh, so I’d like to point out that I did not tell Bugsy to leave Len alone. In fact, I said multiple times during cycle two that I suspected Len more than Araris, and the only reason I didn’t vote Len the first cycle was time. I should have voted Len the second cycle, but I forgot the extension was retracted and my vote ended up staying on EE while I was trying to re-analyze the thread. But I never told Bugsy to back off on Len.

Speaking of analyzing the thread, Randuir is somewhat connected to Len based on a quick perusal of D2, but I’m unsure if it’s really a Elim connection. I would expect them to stay further apart from each other, were they Elims. 

All the village reads on me are making me nervous, as I’m notoriously bad at differentiating trusting villagers from pocketing Elims, and I usually assume the first which makes me very easy to pocket >> That said, I just got two people accusing me, and now I have to differentiate Elims throwing shade from paranoid villagers. Stop making me self-focus so much, guys, I just want to analyze the thread as a whole :P 

I do feel marginally better about Devotary, but I’m leaving my vote there as I currently don’t have bigger suspicions. If I muster up the willpower to do a read through of the whole thread, again, I’ll change it. Until then, I’ll do analysis on a few people Rand brought up and see what I can find.

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Unrelated to any game strategy...every time I read "xxx is totally dead" I laugh at the valley-girl sound of it.

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Devotary. Straw

I know we always lynch Straw when we have no solid suspicions...but I think I actually have a decent case against him this time. I will be very unsurprised if I’m wrong, though. 

Straw has posted a lot this game, far more than I’m used to seeing from him. However, most of it is NAI stuff like vote counts and asking for rules clarifications. While it’s a fairly flimsy argument by itself, it’s worth noting that this is a possible move by elim!Straw to seem active while mostly skating by. Here are Straw’s game-relevant posts:

Quote

@Cadmium Compounder That seems a bit silly, considering that if I were an eliminator, I would have asked it in my GM PM. Logically, the eliminators would want the village to have the minimum amount of information, so asking in the GM PM would be optimal. Also, you might want to try analyzing multiple players before choosing one to vote on. :P

This was in response to CadCom wondering why Straw had asked one of his rule clarifications in-thread. The response itself is decent and there’s nothing really incriminating in there, though I always dislike arguments based on “Elims do things this way, I did it this other way, I can’t be an Elim.” Yes, you can. 

Quote

Buttercup’s dead

Killed by the pirates, it’s said

Terribly sad

That things have turned bad

And Buttercup will not be the only one dead


Huh, looks like we’ve lost three of our most important roles. We should probably focus on protecting the Spaniard, so they can get as many scans as possible. As Bugsy pointed out, it’s pretty likely that Elenion is the Man in Black, due to his defense of Araris.

I really don’t like this post. The first sentence just feels weird, the sentiment is NAI and the use of “our” really doesn’t help my paranoia, as that’s a great way to play on someone’s subconscious and get them to trust you as villager. I normally overlook that because I do it as a villager sometimes, but here it just feels wrong for some reason. The second sentence is moot, as there’s no protection roles in the game, as Straw should know full well, but I’ll get into this more later when I look at his next post. The final sentence is the most incriminating in my view, as it looks like Straw trying to hand Len a bit of towncred by suggesting something that’s false, but will still associate Len with the “good guys” and make him seem more village by “mistakenly thinking” he’s one of the village power roles. 

Quote

How do you know he’s not Max? Did he say that his claim was fake?

   On 6/4/2018 at 8:46 PM,  Fifth Scholar said: 

Umm...first, Miracle Max isn’t really “our” role, as he’s neutral. Second, there is no protection role in this game iirc, so there is no way of getting the Spaniard to claim and then guard him as he scans. Third, I’m not sure that we should instantly draw the line to Len as the Man in Black. If he wishes to claim as such, that’s fine, but assuming something like that likely isn’t the greatest idea.

1. Technically, Miracle Max would have to help the village in order to achieve his win condition, so he would be at least mildly helpful to the village.

2. I was meaning that we should think up ways for him to safely pass his scans to the village, without being discovered.

3. I was basing that off of Bugsy’s post, which made a good point for why Elenion is probably village, and possibly the Man in Black.

First sentence is Straw looking for clarification about Roadwalker not being Max from HH. Seems NAI. 

His first point seems obvious, but I could see an Elim or villager pointing that out so I won’t draw too much from that. The second point I vehemently disagree with—other than Val the Spainiard doesn’t have anyone confirmed good to contact, and since his scan only checks for one particular Elim it isn’t terribly useful information to spread—a negative result doesn’t preclude somebody from being another type of Eliminator. In addition, should the Spainiard find the Count, it’s much better for him to simply use his kill on him, as it’ll confirm whoever they kill as evil and not require the Spainiard to have to out himself to another player to reveal a positive result. The third point also irks me, as it seems like a way to deflect suspicion if/when Len flipped. I could see the argument going “well, I was basing it off what Bugsy said, I even said so right here!” The issue with that is that Bugsy only floated the possibility of Len being the Man in Black, and said in his next post that he was likely wrong. Finally, the third point Straw brings up also gives Len a townread. 

Quote

I’m a bit suspicious of Sart, mainly due to the fact that he voted on me. :P

My other thought is that we shouldn’t focus too much on the last minute push on Araris. It was most likely due to people being desperate to have a solid lynch, and people who were reading the thread right before rollover.

My main issue with this was that Straw’s vote ended up being part of the lynch vote that tied Len with Sart, and nearly prevented his death. The fact that this seeming joke or poke vote wasn’t retracted doesn’t help my read on Straw. The point about not focusing too much on the Araris wagon is...fair, but part of SE is analyzing votes and lynches, and while I get Straw’s point I could see it coming from an Elim trying to suppress information. I’m likely just too far into a tunnel at this point, though. First paragraph gives an Elim read and the second paragraph a neutral/very slight village one. 

Quote

Well, I wish I had taken my vote off of Sart. After all, my vote was made as a joke, but it risked getting in the way of a legitimate lynch. :unsure:

He does end up apologizing later for the unretracted vote, but this is NAI in my opinion because Elim!Straw would still say this to seem sorry for nearly blocking the death of an Eliminator. 

I’m likely somewhat in a tunnel right now, but I do believe Straw may actually be evil this game, and I am willing to lynch him to find out. 

EDIT: I will be spending time with some of my relatives from the West Coast from Saturday to Tuesday. While I will make an effort to look in here every once in a while, expect short responses and not paragraph-long analysis, so if you want me to answer something just @ping me and I’ll answer it. (Or PM me. I always like PMs. :D)

Edited by Fifth Scholar
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I'm going to apologize in advance for my inactivity this cycle and possibly in following cycles. IRL stuff takes priority :P I'll try to be as active as possible, but I can't promise anything.

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Apologies for not being active as well. I’ve been reading the thread, but it’s been a really busy week and I haven’t been able to really form any reads worth acting on. I’ll consider the arguments I see here and decide if I can cast a vote with less potential damage than not casting one.

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 Randuir. I agree that it was odd he was suspicious of Elenion, yet ended up not voting for him and eventually came to the conclusion that Elenion wasn't evil. Also, @randuir , and anyone else in the thread. They've been very quiet this cycle, which seems a convenient time when they have some suspicion on them. Did they say they have irl stuff going on? If Randuir is good I think we should vote for Devotary, but my gut says Rand.

Edited by Dalinar Kholin
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Randuir did mention being mostly afk through tomorrow...doesn't make your suspicion any less valid, but worth noting.

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Right, so this post won't be very long, but in *preparation* for this post, I did like two hours of reading... 

Currently, votes are tied between Randuir and Devotary, this might change in the next five or so hours while I sleep, but this thread has been so quiet... I'm throwing a vote on Devotary, mainly for her action in breaking the tie between Elenion and Sart. I agree that Straw also warrants a closer look, but I'm not going to add yet another person to the tie :P

I would agree that Eternum and Cadcom are soft cleared for now, for voting on Len and sticking to it. The Sart lynch came up rather quickly after those two votes on Len had been established (Snipexe voted on Sart too, but before the first vote on Len, which makes it seem less of a calculated swing than Straw's and Devotary's votes)

On Randuir, I honestly can't trust him, not because I have any real elim read on him yet, but because I keep *wanting* to trust him for all his analysis heavy posts and that's dangerous :P. There is also the fact that in the two games I have been in with Rand, he was evil in both of them, so  a lot of the aformentioned two hour reading was going through games where he had been good. I was a little leery of all the analysis he did yet really not much willingness to commit to it, such as his hovering on the fringes on the Bugsy/Elenion discussion, and then his exhaustive thoughts on all the players last round, but after looking around, I'm a little more reassured that's his normal playstyle. I'm not clearing him by any means, but I'm more willing to lynch Devotary than Randuir at this point, especially as Randuir isn't around to defend himself. 

Hope discussion picks up in the next few hours. There really have been too few people voting. 

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I haven't been active either, but I didn't want to post until I knew what I was going to say. I can tell that we currently have a little bandwagon against Rand forming. This is interesting, since I also had a slight suspicion of Rand, simply because of my hypothetical distribution.

My reasoning is thus: the Elims have a few semi-actives, and one or two active contributors. Len was proved to be Elim, so perhaps that would cross out the active category. Rand is a player that I would consider to be in the active contributor category. Now, what I believe to be the activity distribution of Elims is completely arbitrary, but it kind of makes sense to me. Vaguely.

Devotary is the other main suspect currently. Ninja'd by Doc here, and he brings up a good point. Since we have a confirmed Elim, Len, and since he was also the topic of much discussion D1 and D2, we get some good information out of this. Specifically, Devotary switched her vote to Sart when given the chance. This move can definitely be seen as an Elim action, but it could be an innocent action. Devotary gives some good evidence for her vote.

Quote

"...based on the possibility that Sart's last hour attempt to get Roadwalker lynched in combination with the vote switched by Roadwalker with a dagger was an elim plot to kill Max, with the night kill being placed when Roadwalker survived the day. "

This reasoning makes sense if Sart is an Elim, but right before this, she alludes that Len is a villager, which, yet again, could be innocent, or an Elim teammate trying to move suspicion from a fellow Elim.

My read on Devotary is up in the air, as you can tell from my back-and-forth reasoning. Between the two (arbitrary distribution or rather NAI vote pattern), I think I will place my vote on Devotary for now.

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I'll join the Devotary band-wagon for now...  I still have other suspicions that I'm not sold on, but between Randuir and Devotary, I'm definitely leaning that way.  I'll be lurking the rest of the day, so that still may not be my final vote.

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18 hours ago, Fifth Scholar said:

1. Devotary. Straw

2. I know we always lynch Straw when we have no solid suspicions...but I think I actually have a decent case against him this time. I will be very unsurprised if I’m wrong, though. 

3. Straw has posted a lot this game, far more than I’m used to seeing from him. However, most of it is NAI stuff like vote counts and asking for rules clarifications. While it’s a fairly flimsy argument by itself, it’s worth noting that this is a possible move by elim!Straw to seem active while mostly skating by. Here are Straw’s game-relevant posts:

4. This was in response to CadCom wondering why Straw had asked one of his rule clarifications in-thread. The response itself is decent and there’s nothing really incriminating in there, though I always dislike arguments based on “Elims do things this way, I did it this other way, I can’t be an Elim.” Yes, you can. 

5. I really don’t like this post. The first sentence just feels weird, the sentiment is NAI and the use of “our” really doesn’t help my paranoia, as that’s a great way to play on someone’s subconscious and get them to trust you as villager. I normally overlook that because I do it as a villager sometimes, but here it just feels wrong for some reason. The second sentence is moot, as there’s no protection roles in the game, as Straw should know full well, but I’ll get into this more later when I look at his next post. The final sentence is the most incriminating in my view, as it looks like Straw trying to hand Len a bit of towncred by suggesting something that’s false, but will still associate Len with the “good guys” and make him seem more village by “mistakenly thinking” he’s one of the village power roles. 

6. First sentence is Straw looking for clarification about Roadwalker not being Max from HH. Seems NAI. 

7. His first point seems obvious, but I could see an Elim or villager pointing that out so I won’t draw too much from that. The second point I vehemently disagree with—other than Val the Spainiard doesn’t have anyone confirmed good to contact, and since his scan only checks for one particular Elim it isn’t terribly useful information to spread—a negative result doesn’t preclude somebody from being another type of Eliminator. In addition, should the Spainiard find the Count, it’s much better for him to simply use his kill on him, as it’ll confirm whoever they kill as evil and not require the Spainiard to have to out himself to another player to reveal a positive result. The third point also irks me, as it seems like a way to deflect suspicion if/when Len flipped. I could see the argument going “well, I was basing it off what Bugsy said, I even said so right here!” The issue with that is that Bugsy only floated the possibility of Len being the Man in Black, and said in his next post that he was likely wrong. Finally, the third point Straw brings up also gives Len a townread. 

8. My main issue with this was that Straw’s vote ended up being part of the lynch vote that tied Len with Sart, and nearly prevented his death. The fact that this seeming joke or poke vote wasn’t retracted doesn’t help my read on Straw. The point about not focusing too much on the Araris wagon is...fair, but part of SE is analyzing votes and lynches, and while I get Straw’s point I could see it coming from an Elim trying to suppress information. I’m likely just too far into a tunnel at this point, though. First paragraph gives an Elim read and the second paragraph a neutral/very slight village one. 

He does end up apologizing later for the unretracted vote, but this is NAI in my opinion because Elim!Straw would still say this to seem sorry for nearly blocking the death of an Eliminator. 

I’m likely somewhat in a tunnel right now, but I do believe Straw may actually be evil this game, and I am willing to lynch him to find out. 

EDIT: I will be spending time with some of my relatives from the West Coast from Saturday to Tuesday. While I will make an effort to look in here every once in a while, expect short responses and not paragraph-long analysis, so if you want me to answer something just @ping me and I’ll answer it. (Or PM me. I always like PMs. :D)

1. Huh, a vote on me. Interesting way to start your post. :P

2. I don’t really have anything to say about this.

3. Huh. Personally, I think that I’ve been slightly less active than usual.

4. While the “if I was an eliminator I’d do something different,” argument is slightly faulty. It was the best argument I could think of at the time. Also, I’d prefer not to get into an IKYK. :P

5. How you refer to the village is a matter of personal preference, so it should probably count as NAI. As for the second sentence, I responded to that in a later post, I’ll assume you missed that because you were going through my posts chronologically. As for the last sentence, I agree that it looks suspicious in that it appears to be trying to give Len village credit, but if I were an eliminator, it’d be useless due to the fact that Len would either say that he wasn’t the Man in Black, or the Man in Black would counterclaim.

6. Yep, there’s not really anything to discuss about this.

7. Regarding the second point, I mistakenly thought that the Spaniard has a classic scan, there’s not really anything else to say about it. Your response to my third point is mildly annoying, due to the fact that you assume that I’m an eliminator. At that time, the only information I had was that he had attempted to defend a villager with a powerful role, which usually indicates being a villager.

8. It’s a bit unfair that you’re focusing on my vote, which was merely in response to Sart’s vote, and was intended to get him to take his vote off of me, instead of focusing on Devotary’s vote, which actually made it so it completed with the lynch train on Elenion.

@Fifth Scholar

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Only six votes so far, as quite a few people have said they won't be active at this time. Nobody will be inactivity-killed/replaced this turn, though a few players will suffer that fate if they don't come back for the night turn.

Polydactylous Tarotdactyl lived to fly. With his nine meter wingspan, he could easily fly fast enough to keep pace with Dread Pirate Roberts's ship. After several fruitless(the pirates needed to keep all the fruit to themselves to prevent scurvy) attempts to drive him off, the pirates accepted that the flamboyant, five-fingered flying fish-filleter was there to stay. Now though, there were several crew members saying that he was secretly working for some land dweller. Polydactylous Ptrdctl had been on land before. Usually, he preferred beaches next to the nice cool water. He couldn't see why anyone would want to live on the land with nothing to eat. The pirates, though they lacked wings, at least had the sense to live out in the water where all the food was. Most of the crew had better things to do than decide his fate. Today was after all, and there was a feast to celebrate the occasion. Even if Polydactylous Ptearedactill had been invited to the feast, he wouldn't have attended. No, it was far more enjoyable to do his own hunting, diving into the water to find the most delicious fish. Yes, this was the life for him. Robert's ship disturbed the fish as it passed, causing them to be easy targets for a swooping predator. To think that all the pterodactyls back home had found it inconceivable for any of their race to interact with humans. They didn't know what they were missing.

24 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

I'm not clearing him by any means, but I'm more willing to lynch Devotary than Randuir at this point, especially as Randuir isn't around to defend himself. 

So your primary evidence against me is my voting for Sart versus Elenion? That is reasonable, and a fair reason to vote. I'm not sure Randuir not being around to defend himself shouldn't be a big factor in your decision though, as that was one of the mistakes I made with my vote last cycle.

13 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

This reasoning makes sense if Sart is an Elim, but right before this, she alludes that Len is a villager, which, yet again, could be innocent, or an Elim teammate trying to move suspicion from a fellow Elim.

I did not allude that Len was a villager. At the time, I believed that someone with only one vote could be lynched. This false hypothetical opened up the possibility of the elims moving votes off of Elenion and Sart to get as many players lynched as possible. That could have led to five dead villagers if two daggers were used and the iocaine only killed villagers.

8 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

I'll join the Devotary band-wagon for now...  I still have other suspicions that I'm not sold on, but between Randuir and Devotary, I'm definitely leaning that way.  I'll be lurking the rest of the day, so that still may not be my final vote.

What made you change your mind as regards to solidifying a lynch? Earlier today, you said

On 6/8/2018 at 10:31 AM, Rathmaskal said:

Someone made the argument that an elim wouldn't gain anything out of solidifying the vote on Araris day one when the next-highest vote-getter was 2 at that point seems fair...but I also don't see any situation a villager would gain something out of that move.  If Araris had instead been a pirate with dagger, that 4 could have changed to 3 pretty easily...and moved a third to someone else, so the 5th vote was still pretty damning.

What are you hoping to gain by adding a fifth vote on me?

Four votes on me within the span of twenty minutes. This is getting slightly ridiculous. Unless they all ninja'd each other, that many votes in quick succession seems useless. As it's entirely possible that at least one of those votes was designed to protect a teammate, I will vote on Randuir for now.

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32 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

I did not allude that Len was a villager. At the time, I believed that someone with only one vote could be lynched. This false hypothetical opened up the possibility of the elims moving votes off of Elenion and Sart to get as many players lynched as possible. That could have led to five dead villagers if two daggers were used and the iocaine only killed villagers.

That makes more sense, considering your word choice of "massacre". I'll take my vote off you, but I'm not quite sold on lynching Rand. Devotary.

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Devotary(4)- Sart, Eternum, Rathmaskal, Straw

Randuir(3)-CadCom, Dalinar, Devotary

Straw(1)-Fifth

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Voting on you today and solidifying a lynch on day 1 are completely different given the fact that we actually have a little information today...  As I said, though, I'm not 100% set on that vote.  Just seems the best option for now.

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Hello, everyone

I've finished reading cycle 2, and I really don't seem to be in a good spot for analysis right now. I'm not sure what's wrong, but I seem to read things without them registering and nothing is really clear. I did notice that votes were thrown around at a lot of different people and from a lot of different sources, so I'm hoping to diagram those out and analyze it at some point - it seems like that could either show real suspicion or be a distancing mechanism, and analysis to see which is which would be very helpful. I plan on doing this later. 

I haven't taken a look at anything in cycle 3 (I opened this thread and scrolled immediately to post without reading anything, because I know I'm not prepared to take a good look at anything and I don't want to be sucked in :P), so if there's anything I was supposed to respond to, I apologize. I'll attempt to do so either tonight or tomorrow, although the latter looks more feasible, since I'm leaving for a friend's grad party in 10 minutes, and won't be home until after the after party, so it's unlikely I'll get a chance to look at much else until tomorrow.

Sorry again for my relative lack of activity, but with any luck my contribution should pick up soon. Next week is finals week for me, but because of my schedule I don't actually have any exams - all of them are projects I've already completed or tests I've already taken, which means I'll have a lot of downtime for this.

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2 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Four votes on me within the span of twenty minutes. This is getting slightly ridiculous. Unless they all ninja'd each other, that many votes in quick succession seems useless. As it's entirely possible that at least one of those votes was designed to protect a teammate, I will vote on Randuir for now.

I agree, that's not only ridiculous, but suspicious, although I would lean another direction.  I think perhaps we're meant to believe Randuir is being saved by teammates, so that when you're lynched and come up clean, the focus changes to Rand, and then the Elims get another villager lynched as well.  Clever misdirection if so, and when that happens, they won't look as suspicious since they obviously weren't just protecting a teammate.  Except I'm onto it. If I'm right.  What a mystery…

I don't see Doc or HH making it quite that obvious, but @Rathmaskal is newer (unless you've just changed your name?) so I could see that spoiling it, and they posted after Doc and HH, which makes me think one of them is likely coordinating this ploy and is probably now a bit irked.  This smells like a Doc plan to me, so I'm going to cast my vote there.

And yes, I know, I can't prove any of this and it's very conspiracy theory-is, but it's the type of thing I'd want to try myself.

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