863 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Or you could get an official vote counter guy

Maybe, if Steel got minions, they should be called metal filings?

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1 minute ago, Bort said:

Maybe, if Steel got minions, they should be called metal filings?

That sure seems like a good name for the little hirelings.

 

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Ok, I'm in the progress of reading through the cycle now. I'll add comments as I think of things.

Firstly, I have a pretty strong village read on @Hemalurgic Headshot. He confirmed for us that Roadwalker had falsely claimed Miracle Max, and since the Eliminators killed Roadwalker I would imagine none of them knew that he had been lying. After all, had they known, they could have kept him alive and let the village be unsure of his alignment. By killing him when they knew he was lying, they'd lose an information advantage and would also lose the ability to fabricate a controversy over Roadwalker's fake claim.  

Secondly, @Elbereth, this'll be interesting with you as Max. Good call on waiting to claim, too :P. (Also you have to teach me how to use Iambic Pentameter at some point. I got halfway through before realizing I was reading it at the specific cadence, and I'm deeply impressed)

Thirdly, in retrospect, I'm a bit surprised by Rand's suspicion of Cadcom. Cadom's vote was... poorly thought out, true, but Rand has explicitly acknowledged that he's accustomed to looking for the sort of elim tells that would be present in the championship, and I don't think the sort of thing Cadcom did would be seen there at all. His vote was rather transparent and precipitated entirely on a misconception/faulty analysis. Any elim I can think of would know not to vote on something so... not unsubstantial, but almost anti-substantial. Not only was it more or less baseless, it explicitly gave Straw the opportunity to respond and say that his previous posts were evidence he was village, something that wouldn't happen naturally without this sort of accusation. I suppose if they're working together, it'd be possible, but I doubt that he's an elim if Straw isn't.

Fourthly, @randuir is a tricky case for me. His analysis, especially during the first cycle, seemed designed to air out as much as possible. His use of Socratic questioning was actually quite helpful for me, I'll admit. At the same time, though, it seemed a rather noncommittal way to fan the flames of my argument with Len.  Had he not also brought up the argument about Cadcom, I'd be much more suspicious of him, ironically enough. He did, however, introduce a new suspicion and follow it with a vote, even when Araris and I were already up for a lynch, which makes me believe he was likely not fanning the flames for the purpose of getting us lynched, but rather to get us to talk more and potentially provide the village with more clues. Slight village read. 

Fifthly, Mr. Doctor, your analysis is very impressive. I'll quote a section of it below to respond to:

Quote

Something that is bugging me is the neutrality of his arguments. Do players often sit in the background and offer analysis like this? Doc seems very nice and entirely neutral, which is making an alarm bell ring somewhere for me. Almost everyone else who posts an equivalent amount justified their votes a decent amount. Doc didn’t spend especially long on his initial argument against Araris, and spent far more time on analyses of everyone else. That looks like him focusing more on building trust and interaction with everyone else, and less on the outcome of the initial lynch.

As for what that means, either he is Village and wants to prove that he’s engaged and trustworthy to everyone, or if he’s Elim then he’s trying to do the same thing to tie himself to everyone and become harder to lynch, and he also wasn’t especially concerned with Araris going down because he knew that Araris was a Villager.

…Argh, this is doing my head in. I want to trust you, Doc, but I don’t know what to think.

Doc, at least in my experience, seems rather furtive when he's an eliminator. He is (or was, at least) very preoccupied with maintaining an information imbalance, and it often became apparent that he knew more than he was letting on. It's been quite awhile since I've played with him, but there was a time when I had him down cold, and assuming his playstyle hasn't significantly changed, I'm reading him as village. 

Sixth, and I know that this isn't the order the posts actually appeared in, but I'd like to respond to @Elbereth's post that said the following:

Quote

Vague suspicion on Eternum for this post and this one. Ish. Reading them over again, they're not so bad as I initally thought (as they do show progression of thought), but within the three he places suspicion on all three major suspects of yesterday. It reads  as trying to cast suspicion, realising that suspicion is infeasible, and reaching for a different easy target. Eternum

With regards to the progression of thought you reference, I disagree that it's indicative of being village. I believe you're referring to his claim of rereading and being less sure of Araris' alignment after the vote already ended, which to me is NAI. I'd say that could possibly be a distancing technique as much as it could be progression of thought.  @Mr Doctor, I also disagree with your analysis of that. Eliminators have less progression of thought because they already know what's true, so they can't figure stuff out over time. It means they have to stage it if they're showing a change in opinion, so it's certainly not elim indicative. It's just not village indicative either, though, at least in my opinion. 

Seventh, @Fifth Scholar , to respond to this:

Quote

If El is lying about being Max, the real Max will counterclaim and we can lynch her for her dishonesty. As for now, though, I’m of a mind to trust El’s claim, unless someone else refutes it. El is not the type of person to lie about something like this (I think). 

I'd say you're pretty much correct. I don't see El falsely claiming, because the possibility of a counterclaim would make it a more risky maneuver than her usual playstyle, and because it could cause a lot of unpredictability. Her keeping a low profile C1 also helps strengthen her case. I'm inclined to believe her regarding her role as Max, although I plan on  remaining cautious :P 

Eighth, @Elbereth again:

Quote

5b. Also, yesterday wasn't heated at all, in my opinion - it was a few people debating, all of whom enjoy debate (speaking of which, @Bugsy, I could really hear the MUN in your voice). I was never worried about it escalating further

I'd agree, someone yesterday described it as heated, and I was rather surprised because personally it seemed pretty civil. Reminds me of when I first joined and got really invested in arguments, though. I suppose the culture of all being friends but still trying to kill eachother takes awhile to get used to :P 

With regards to the MUN, any specific way you mean that? I'm pleasantly surprised to hear that.

Class is ending, so I have to give the computer back. Will return with more analysis later.

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I'm posting to apologize for my lack of activity last cycle and this one - I have only proceeded to get sicker, and while I have tried my best to keep up to date by reading, I haven't really been feeling up to the two hours or so of work to do analysis and make those big posts I do. I'm still here, and will try to be on tomorrow to vote and analyze and try do be active and engaged, but yeah, apologies for being sick and inactive. Maybe El as Max can give me something for the illness? 

 

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Quick note before I start looking at work TOO much - Eternum is the only person to vote for both lynchees.

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For some reason I’m having issues processing the really large posts people are putting out, so I’m doing a bit of analysis on the less-frequent posters. 

I looked through @Jondesu’s posts this game, and while he’s said a bit, mostly about D1 discussion being mostly NAI, he hasn’t really given reads or analysis on players yet, which I’d like to see. Neutral lean on him until he talks more.

@Mark IV said some stuff D1 but has been pretty quiet lately. I’ll comb through his posts a bit. First three posts he jokes around about the bottom of the list being better, and puts a joke vote on Walin for being at the top of the list. Fourth post he seems to advocate for a more Chaotic Neutral Max, because he thinks that would be more fun for Max (note that each player plays roles differently, and a less chaos-inclined Max could have fun joining one side or the other, but this post is NAI regardless). Fifth and sixth posts are both NAI, either jokes or rule clarifications, and his seventh and final post is pointing out an apparent contradiction in something Araris said, which I didn’t really find contradictory. So essentially, the vast majority of what he said was NAI or unhelpful, and he hasn’t really produced reads or significant analysis of his own. Finally, he didn’t post anything last Day cycle, and still hasn’t posted anything tonight. The lack of anything solid from him makes me want to vote him next Day cycle, if he doesn’t show up again, as I think it could be elim!Mark trying to appear as though he’s contributed but not really say much. 

Finally, if anyone has a PM to spare I’d be happy to talk to you :). In particular, if there’s anyone you’d like me to analyze, please ask me, since I’m low on motivation to do analysis this game and you’ll force me to do it. 

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Yeah, no, I'm here. Just a little caught up irl. Should be free by Saturday morning/Friday evening? 

 

I agree with scholar's assessment of me. It could just be elim!Me trying to appear as if I've contributed much. :ph34r:

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4 hours ago, Rathmaskal said:

Quick note before I start looking at work TOO much - Eternum is the only person to vote for both lynchees.

I did a quick look at Eternum, and you do bring up a good point, but I don't think the Elim team would have the same make the mistake of having someone vote on the Lynchee two turns in a row. It makes that person immediately look suspicious. I could be wrong though. 

I have actually wanted to look at Sart, partly because he also voted on Len(Oh wait, so did I, I had better analyze myself, so that I can make sure I'm not an Elim), and partly because he is not getting much analysis for the most part. But for now, I will focus on Sart. 

I like what I did with my analysis of Elenion, so I will put the actual analysis in a spoiler for length, then put a summary at the end. 

 

Spoiler
Quote

 

Sart: Posted Sunday at 04:12 PM

"AH HA!"

"You fools think you awe so cwevew. Howevew, I have deduced that Roadwalker is not in fact a piwate. Thewefowe, we must attack, because miwacles do not happen fow piwates at a wate cowwesponding to non-piwates."

 

Three people responded to this

Kidpen: Incan wondewed what this means.
Snipexe: I’m echoing Kidpen here, how....?

Devotary: It seems Sart is voting for Roadwalker on the basis that Roadwalker isn't a pirate. @Sart, are you saying you disbelieve his claim of being Miracle Max, or that you want to lynch Max because he has to revive a higher percentage of elims than villagers? 

To which, Sart Responded

Quote

 

Sowwy for slurring my words. Since Day 1 is often chaotic, I decided to go after a supposed neutral player. I don't like Miracle Max in this game for several reasons. One, he is a neutral player, which means he will be pitting both sides against one another. More importantly, he delays the game. Suppose we lynch or kill an eliminator. Miracle Max then has an incentive to bring that eliminator back from the dead. The next day, we would then have to lynch the eliminator, wasting valuable time. That didn't seem fun to me, so I decided to vote for Roadwalker. Plus, if he is telling the truth, we haven't killed a pirate. At the very least, it was interesting to see your reactions.

 

 

 

What I got out from this exchange is in a game with 27 players and 5 elims, if we assume everyone has one life, then the elim to vil ratio is 5/21(removing max as neutral as well), or in decimal about .2381. But with Miracle max extra lives are added. The logic is that max would add 2 lives to Elims, and only 4 to village, making it 7/25, which in decimal is .28. making the ratio about .04 higher for the elims, thus improving their win probability. 

My problem with this that Miracle max doesn't know our roles or alignment so he won't only rescue 4 villagers. It's likely that he'll accidentally rescue more of us than he will Elims. So that keeps the game relatively the same. His wincon is different from what he'll likely do. More or less. 

Well, his response to seeing the D1 lynch results are interesting:

Quote

Sart: Posted Sunday at 09:11 PM 

Ah. I was under the impression that alignment would be revealed upon mostly death. That makes a lot more sense, and makes Miracle Max less of a problem. He still delays the game via his healing, but it's more or less fair this way. Good to know.

It's like he knew I was going to do this analysis of him, and answered my concern. But the entire situation does show that he has put a lot of thought into the Neutral role.  So that doesn't change much yet.

Quote

Roadwalker: Posted Monday at 08:04 AM 

@Sart

I believe sart voted on me because IF Max turned nasty he could be much more of a help to the elims than to the village.

Ok, so I agree. If Maxturned Nasty, he would help the Elims a lot more. He could continue rescuing them after he got his own wincon. But at the same time, If he turned good, he would help the village a lot more after. That gives me an Idea of someone to review in a minute... I'll have to go to my notes and search for the specific post that just popped into my head though, so I'm not sure whose post it is. 

Ok, back to Sart's analysis. So yeah, If max goes bad=bad for village, but I think it's more likely that they won't go bad. I think that they'll remain neutral. It will take them long enough to get their wincon anyways, it will be really late in the game before we need to worry about Max flipping sides or anything. Personally, if I were Elim, I would be more afraid of Max than if I were village though. 

Quote

Elenion: Posted Monday at 08:21 AM 

@Sart I don't think it would be a good idea to vote on Roadwalker. It's true that Max could make things difficult for us if he decided to help the elims, but voting on him and threatening him with the lynch are what's going to make him want to work with the elims in the first place. I know you wouldn't have voted on Road unless you were fairly sure we could get an advantage out of it, so what was the advantage?

I think I will have to wait to see how Elenion flips before I put any weight to this post. It could be distancing, or it could be genuine concern. But we won't be able to figure that out unless Max doesn't save Len tonight.

Quote

 

Snipexe: Posted Tuesday at 01:05 PM

In 1st Cycle Roadwalker lied

I'm the miracle man he cried

But Headshot had proof

that that was a spoof

that to protect Max, Road mostly died

 

After road posted his claim

Sart attacked seeming to mame

He no evidence presented,

Just anger he vented

And Later backed down from his claim

 

Sart's 2nd post caused me much thought

the anger seemed to have rot

the wording cried intrigue

like Sart with those in league,

who caused Road's heart to stop.

Sart

 

Very cleverly worded poem by Snipexe. I think I just gave it an upvote. But yes, Snip, you point out what I thought was Odd. Roadwalker died, and Sart was the only person to openly show suspicion. If I were an elim and Sart weren't on my team, I would totally use him as a scapegoat here, and kill where blame can be passed. But Maybe... Just maybe, we can get a little bit more information. For that, I will go back to the results from D1, and N1. 

D1 Lynch had Kidpen and Snipexe on Sart, But Kidpen backed off last minute. N1, Night Kill killed Kidpen. He had been voting on Sart, and the Man in Black killed Kidpen. This whole time, I kept trying to convince myself that Sart is Elim, but this one post makes it possible that he could be Man in Black. In this case, he would just be a standard villager now. If he was man in black, he was just trying to kill someone that he maybe secretly suspected/feared. But why not attack Snipexe? Well, Snipexe had his vote still placed. Killing off someone with a vote placed might bring it back directly to the one who he voted on. 

So to try to do a check/balance on that last paragraph, I am going to analyze when Sart placed his vote on Max. Sart's vote was placed on Roadwalker about 12 hours after the first vote on araris that I saw. It could have been Sart trying to lynch another candidate that he hoped would start another lynch train off of Buttercup. When it didn't work, he was scared of kidpen continuing to seek revenge, so he killed Kidpen.

I mean this is Kidpen's post, five minutes before Rollover. 

Quote

Kidpen: Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM 

I'll Sart, but I don't like these reasons very much. I'm outa time though, so no discussion for today

He still expressed suspicion, and removed his vote somewhat begrudgingly. Then he died.

I've been going all over the place chronologically. I am going to head back to where I left off before going all over the place.

Quote

Sart: Posted Tuesday at 06:54 PM 

Vote Count:

Eternum (1): Elbereth
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Elenion
Fifth Scholar (2): Rathmaskal, Cadmium Compounder
Sart (1): Snipexe

For all the nonsense you've spun

Our leads are near none.

And voting really hasn't begun

We need our suspicions

To create bigger fissions

So please, abandon your missions

Of ranking the players

From weaklings to slayers

It buries the truth in more layers

Of meaningless prattle

Meaning a schoolyard tattle

Could start a meaningless battle

Let's cut to the chase

And finally place

Votes on whom to erase

With that being said

I want Straw to be dead

One reason I have in my head

He's followed along

But called no one wrong

And so I finish my song

I also gave this an upvote, though I think Snipexe's was more poetic(But that's all probably personal opinion). A vote on Straw, for reasons I'm to lazy to fact-check right now. But I'll believe this. You are now suspicious of Straw. Or you are trying to keep under the Radar. Let's keep going

Quote

Randuir: Posted 23 hours ago

Sart voted on roadwalker C1, and the attack on Roadwalker places that in the same convoluted WIFOM case as it does Walin. This cycle he voted on Straw for pretty much the same reasons as I'm currently suspecting him. Not much of note here ither.

So Just a typical read. Rand reads Sart the same way Sart reads Straw. Sart reads straw Elim, so Rand must have a slight elim read on Sart. Or maybe I'm misunderstanding, and it's actually Rand reads Straw the same way Sart reads Straw.

Quote

Straw: Posted 21 hours ago

I’m a bit suspicious of Sart, mainly due to the fact that he voted on me. :P

My other thought is that we shouldn’t focus too much on the last minute push on Araris. It was most likely due to people being desperate to have a solid lynch, and people who were reading the thread right before rollover.

That doesn't seem like a valid reason, and you were only just barely accused of not being suspicious enough.  Also You're trying to call attention away from the last minute lynch of Araris. I'm going to go see who was part of that after I finish my analysis of Sart. 

Quote

Sart: Posted 20 hours ago

I don't like defending myself, since I'm usually bad at it, but it's a necessary evil. Straw is off the hook for now while I vote on Elenion. He's been active and tried defending Araris, which seems like a villager thing to do. However, I know that I'm a villager, and he's the only one I can vote on to tie up the vote. In regards to the Day 1 vote on Roadwalker, it was mostly for meta-game reasoning. A role that negated a kill each cycle seemed not that fun, and would delay the game more than I would like. I would note that no one voted for Roadwalker besides me. I know this is getting into mind games, but why would I do that if I were Evil? It nearly killed me Day 1. I could have instead joined on one of the lynch trains to select my choice of victim, or I could have kept my mouth shut and blended into the shadows.

The Night 1 kill is more interesting. There are two scenarios I could see happening. In one case, the Elims learn that Roadwalker is not Miracle Max, possibly by his own words. Claiming that role could have meant that Roadwalker was hiding a village role. In that case, they had every reason to kill Roadwalker. Even if he didn't, Roadwalker would still gather lots of information for the village, which is something they wouldn't want. In the other case, the Elims think Roadwalker is Miracle Max. To be honest, I think Max is more helpful to the Elims than the villagers, but that's my opinion. If they felt threatened, they could only kill Max that night, so it was a shot worth taking. In either case, I didn't need to vote on Roadwalker. I did vote on him though, and I stand by that vote. Judge for yourselves, and if another bandwagon happens, I'll probably jump on it. Like I said, I don't suspect Elenion that much.

He wanted to save himself. Valid. Earlier I was hoping that we could find out if Elenion was elim to lynch Sart for trying a distancing tactic, but Now that obviously isn't the case, You wouldn't throw your teammate under the bus if it meant sure death for them too if you were both Elim. So I don't think Sart and Elenion are Both Elims. 

Quote

Devotary: Posted 20 hours ago 

Two vote minimum does mean two votes on an individual, so lots of people won't die after all. That's good to know. Without my vote, a dagger would only be able to render two players mostly dead, while rum could only be used to protect someone. With my vote, it would be difficult for anyone other than Sart or Elenion to be lynched . I still think my vote might be worthwhile, but I'm far less sure. Sart has historically (LG43) been against resurrection roles, so I can see him voting for Roadwalker as a villager. I've run out of time to decide, so I suppose the iocaine will make the decision.

Thank you for this last post, If Sart usually tends to want to get of resurrection roles then I can believe he is villager. 

 

 

 

As I performed my analysis, I went through C1, and I was convinced Sart was Elim. But as I continued, I got partway throuch C2, and decided to look back at C1 with clearer hindsight, and decided that he could be either, and by the End of C2, I am actually leaning village with him, with my suspected role for him in the above spoiler. 

I was convinced early on that by the end of this, I would be placing my Day vote on Sart, But now I'll have to reconsider. I will wait until tomorrow to analyze my new suspected Elim though. 

In all seriousness, This is my favorite analysis that I've performed this game so far. I really think I am close with this one. I sure hope I am now wrong!

Edit: @Snipexe, You have been vocally suspicious of Sart, Albeit in poem, What do you feel about my analysis?

Edit #2: @Sart  I want to make sure that you see this post as well, so that you can respond your thoughts to it.

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

For some reason I’m having issues processing the really large posts people are putting out, so I’m doing a bit of analysis on the less-frequent posters. 

I'll admit, I'm finding them a bit heavy going too. Not bad, they are great posts, but they are taking me a while to get through.

Also, now it is night, I have been able to verify Elbereth's claim. I set her (I think) a challenge that only Max would pass. When I yelled "Humperdink! Humperdink! Humperdink Humperdink!" at her, she covered her ears. So, I now totally believe her claim.

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A few Nursery rhymes to put little Alvron to sleep.

Humperdink Humperdink!
The Squid and his Ink! 
He will now moderate
This game that is great!

Miracle Max
Avoided the Axe
He didn't step on the Road 
That the Elims did Explode

As you wish, Buttercup
I'm sorry we broke up
When I came back, too late
You'd been lynched as your fate

I was once Man in Black
Now I'm Regular Jack
My love has been killed
And I have fallen ill.

Oh Gilder, Oh Gilder
I'll say that you killed her
I'll be stronger than ever
Us Elims are clever.

----------------------------------------------

I have realized a mistake I made in my analysis of Sart, due to a PM I had with someone. So I said that I suspected that Sart could be the man in black, but Now I remember that val already claimed such a role. I still think Sart is village, but instead of leaning moderate to strong village with him, I now only lean slightly village.



 

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
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See, nursery rhymes. That's more at my mental capacity right now, lol.

Not sure if it means CadCom is claiming Man in Black there, or Eliminator...

Edited by Bort
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Val already claimed man in Black, so Sart can't be. I forgot that Val had done that already during my analysis, so it's flawed.

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4 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Val already claimed man in Black, so Sart can't be. I forgot that Val had done that already during my analysis, so it's flawed.

You’re analysis is really good, except for what you say here. Also this,

17 hours ago, Sart said:

Sorry Elenion, I had to protect myself, in case you had vote manipulation as well. I used up my Bottle of Rum, so I'm just a normal villager now.

The fact that your theory works so well, but he’s not the man in Black legitimately scares me. About the poem, thanks!!

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Well that was unfortunate 

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the turn is over! Gimme a bit and I’ll get the day up.

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Day Three: To Blathe

"Shree King Eelz bled out on the floor. Luckily for him, Miracle Max had come.
'Finally, one that isn't totally dead. Man, you've got all sorts of glass in your face. Hm, I'll save you if you have something to pay me.'
Since Shree was not exactly able to be accommodating, Max whistled as he ruffled through his jacket. After going through all his pockets, Max remembered something.
'OH, it's not payday until tomorrow! Poor man, you probably spent all your money on women or something, didn't you. Didn't realize you would need a miracle, did you? Well, I've already saved someone this week without payment. Maybe you have a good reason to not die. Hang on a bit, I'm going to find a bellows.'

Miracle Max came back about 10 minutes later with a large bellows. He stuffed the thing in the dying man's mouth, and yelled at him. 'Hey. Whaddya got that's worth living for?'

He pumped in the air, and waited a minute or two. Then, he slowly pushed Shree's chest. 'Tooooooo blllaaaattthheeee,' Shree moaned. Max gave Shree a very odd look. 'Seriously? I meant that as a joke the other day. I didn't think anyone actually cared about blatheing. Probably comes from being a Prince's Guard. The guard's key had given that away, which Max had of course pocketed. 
'Well, let's try that one more time. Maybe he's just a jokester.' Max repeated the process, and Shree dutifully moaned 'Tooooooo blllaaaaaaattthheeee.'
Max laughed. 'Ok, then I'm not saving you.' And Max walked away, leaving the bellows in Shree's mouth as he died. 

---

The Prince saw a man walking down the hallway. 'That's him! He's the healer I fired years ago. Get him, can't have him working any healing on these pirates!'
The man was old, and couldn't run fast enough to evade them as they dragged him to the pit of despair. The irony of a healer in the pit was not lost on the Prince or the Count, who were going to have fun with him."

Elbereth was attacked! She is Mostly Dead. 

Elenion is totally dead! He was a Prince's Guard with a Parrot. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)

3. Elephant Earwax (Maw Wiage)

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle) 

7. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks)

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz) Prince's Guard with Parrot

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Pirate with a Dagger

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund)

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Pirate

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Coop772 (Kay Oss)

24. Mark IV (Mark)

25. Elbereth (Elenta) Mostly Dead

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)

27. Rathmaskal (Rath)

pur_1528585200.png

Today's fashion is what makes life worth living for! This should require a bit more creativity, and I look forward to seeing what you come up with.

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Uh. So is Elenion is a Guard or a Pirate? You've got it written as both. Given the color, he was probably evil.

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Just now, Sart said:

Uh. So is Elenion is a Guard or a Pirate? You've got it written as both. Given the color, he was probably evil.

oops. :ph34r: I was thinking Guard. 

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Well, apparently the Elims aren’t too happy El didn’t save Len. Although with a dead Elim, I’ve got a lot more information to tinker with. I’ll see who defended or hedged against Len’s lynch, and find out if that points to anyone. 

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Well, we might as well strike while the iron is hot. Devotary of Spontaneity broke the tie and tried to kill me instead of Elenion. I'd like an explanation @Devotary of Spontaneity

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Well, with Elenion now out as Elim, this quote seems a bit more suspicious:

Quote

Araris was the instigator of this attack on Bugsy, and he doesn’t nearly have the saving graces that Elenion does.

That was Mr Doctor's rationale on voting Araris Day 1...

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27 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

Well, with Elenion now out as Elim, this quote seems a bit more suspicious:

That was Mr Doctor's rationale on voting Araris Day 1...

That quote is a bit out of context. Mr Doctor had been talking about how Len had made more posts and gamestate analysis in general, and in fact last cycle he began to suspect Len fairly strongly. I don’t think that sentence is sufficient justification for a vote. 

I’ve got no clue how we lynched an Elim with three votes in a 20 player game...but yay? It would be terrible if once again Devotary was the only active member of her team left, but her vote on Sart last cycle definitely didn’t look the greatest. Note: despite this fairly incriminating evidence, we need to keep our minds open to Devotary’s response and also spend time analyzing other people. A tunnel, especially one leading straight into a mislynch, serves nobody here. As a side note, I am hereby soft-clearing Eternum and potentially the other two voters on Len, as they likely would have found an excuse to shift off that wagon (unless they were going for a bus). 

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40 minutes ago, Sart said:

I'd like an explanation

I had assumed that we would have 24 more hours to cast votes, but then with an hour remaining in the day, I learned that we weren't getting an extension after all. I then managed to forget that there was a two vote minimum for lynches, instead believing that some simple vote manipulation would be enough to ensure that up to five villagers could be lynched. Sart and Elenion were the only players with multiple votes, so I decided to vote for one of them. I chose Sart; for the Roadwalker vote and corresponding possible attempt to kill Max/alienate him from the village, because Elenion had earlier said that he wouldn't be around for rollover, and because I ran out of time to contemplate alternatives. Evidently, I made the wrong choice.

14 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

As a side note, I am hereby soft-clearing Eternum and potentially the other two voters on Len, as they likely would have found an excuse to shift off that wagon (unless they were going for a bus). 

I think CadCom particularly is soft-cleared, especially as he gave himself an opening to change his vote but didn't. Elenion's death also makes it far more likely that Bugsy is a villager, though the fact that a vote was moved from Bugsy to Roadwalker should probably not be discounted.

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Argh I forgot to do anything during the Night cycle! I'm gonna see if I can provide any helpful information by re-reading the last two cycles thoroughly and providing analysis.

 

However, I have said before that I'm bad at analysis. And that I'd only provide neutral reads. So instead of analysis, I'm going to be providing a summary of events and the important bits.

See y'all in about two to three hours. Knowing is half the battle, and I live for the fight. ...Because we're storming a castle, and fighting is what we plan to do, whether it be infighting or being out fighting.

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@randuir Finally read everything over, I'll admit I skimmed a little bit of the analysis.

Village reads:

HH: Just seemed too haphazard. No strong defense come back when suspicions been thrown at him, I think an elim would have little stake in Araris or Bugsy getting killed. Same with 

Fifth: Mainly, why? If he was an elim, he doesn't get anything throwing down another vote on Araris. I can understand why as a village though.

Elim Reads:

Devotary: Not even getting involved in an Araris vote seems like an easy decision when you know Araris is village. Furthermore, throwing it on a person without any votes already allows you to not argue why you don't like the Araris lynch.

Eternum: He made some comment early that seemed to link Elenion and Araris (thus once Araris died, Elenion would seem good). Alas, I don't have the quote right now. 

I'm going to hold of voting until more discussion happens. @Devotary of Spontaneity . What are your reads on Eternum, Randuir, and Fifth Scholar?

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