Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Elenion]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

So Rollover might be late today, I mentioned it earlier. Would the players rather I am not on for rollover and have a shorter night (because this senior thing is going to take forever), or just simply extend the turn by one day? I'm alright either way. 

I'd take the shorter Night, but an extended Day is good too.

[CadCom]

I will now perform analysis of Len
Not because I personally suspect them
But because he was listed in a PM
This is actually my second time doing this analysis
because I accidentaly refreshed, and it didn't save
Originally that was a poem above, but I cant remember how exactly it went
So now there is no rhyme.
The first part of my analysis will be repeated
so out of laziness, the content is somewhat depleted
One good rhyme is enough for today
So here's the analysis now...Yay!?

I've put it all in a spoiler, because it seemed even longer than my analysis of Fifth yesterday. So... Spoiler for length.

Spoiler

 

But here's Len's first post

Quote

Elenion: Posted Friday at 11:51 PM

OOC: I'm using this RP to bring up a real point: if we get Miracle Max on our side, he can effectively negate the elim kill. But if the elims get him on their side, he could make the elims very hard to lynch, under cover of resurrecting people they trust. Miracle Max has incentive to work with both: the elims can help by providing names of elims who have died, but Max needs to resurrect more villagers than elims. If it comes to threats, both sides have repeatable kills, but that might make Max betray the blackmailer to the other side. If a side can convince Miracle Max to work exclusively for them, and only do the minimum resurrections for the other side, that side has a large advantage.

So there was an RP that I didn't paste. Basically this post gives me a moderate village read on Len. Reasoning: He is provding information that would be beneficial to Elims if it was kept secret. At least this early in the game. 

Here's a response from Randuir that seems worthy of note

"I'd say Miracle max would be more dangerous to the village if he worked with the elims than vice-versa. If he where to constantly heal the night-kills then the elims could just start slipping their own in there to get them cleared, while the village still needs to lynch people to solve the game. If he starts to keep the elims safe from the lynch though, they will become very hard to deal with, unless Wesley sacrifices his night kill to make sure the lynchee dies." (Bold added by me)

It gives me a somewhat village read from Randuir, for the same reasons, But we aren't analyzing Randuir, so lets continue, shall we?

Quote

Randuir: Posted Saturday at 02:00 AM 

1. FoS on Elenion, as he's failed to provide us with the number of elims he expects, and how many cycles we have before LYLO.

So Elenion has done this in the past, but it isn't frequent, and sometimes it comes after more information has been revealed, like after a few cycles at least. I rate this as a standard D1 lynch that doesn't need to be founded in any real evidence. Let's read over Len's own response to this

Quote

@randuir I don't think I'm usually in the habit of projecting the number of cycles before LyLo, except in that one Perfect State game when the field of players was really small. I don't even think such a projection would be possible in this game, with the amount of resurrection involved. That said, you are right that I didn't project a number of elims like I usually do. This game I'm fairly sure we have 5 elims, because we have 27 players, 26 if you discount Miracle Max, and so both the Square Root Rule and the 20% Rule give us 5.

 

Thanks for responding! So yeah, no big deal. In my opinion. This exchange did not change my opinion of him. still Moderate village. 

Here's his next post of worth to analyze, in my opinion, responding to a discussion about miracle max and the man in black.

Quote

Elenion: Posted Saturday at 12:07 PM

I don't think it would be a good idea. One of the primary advantages of a vig-kill is that it can hit the elims when and where they least expect it. If you use it to double-tap the lynchees, you make it easily predictable. The advantage to killing the lynchees is that any elim who would be lynched would be guaranteed not to come back, but I don't think that's worth giving up a surprise kill that could take an elim out of the doc for a cycle (mostly dead can't talk in docs) and potentially take them out of the entire game.

At this point analyzing the mechanics discussed here is not relevant, because the man in black has lost his ability, but at the time this was posted, the analysis was relevant. I am of the opinion that analyzing mechanics from a village Point of view is a typical strategy of Elenion. Could someone who is more familiar with Len's playstyle confirm that? Thanks to whoever does that. With that being said, that keeps Elenion as moderate village.(In my opinion) However, it is also important to note, that I believe Len would use the same strategy if they were elim too. so Moderate village, always with a grain of salt. 

Ok. this is the entirety of my analysis before I lost my post, But all of what you have read was a summarized version. Sorry about not getting to read the original long version that I lost.

Continuing on...

Quote

Elenion: Posted Saturday at 04:48 PM

Wait... @Cadmium Compounder why would you vote on Straw if you have no clue as to his alignment? I'm not really getting an elim-y vibe from it per se, but it just seems strange.

I don't know if I ever responded directly to you. I do know that I responded to the inquiry, because multiple people brought it up. But yeah, it was a bit strange. The post in gave me an elim-y vibe of Straw, but with no evidence to back it up. Once Straw pointed out a flaw in my logic, the logic fell apart in my head. D1 mistake, OK? 

Quote

Elenion: Posted Sunday at 12:56 AM

I'm going to jump in and defend Araris here, because I'd actually put it as a village indication. Something like this has come up in multiple games before: IIRC it's called the Ripple Effect because it was RippleGylf who one game messed up the names of the village and elim teams and everyone thought it was a slip. An elim is more likely to scrutinize their posts for accuracy before posting than a villager is, so it's more likely that a villager would make an RP slip than an elim. Bugsy, because I agree with Rand that you looked very opportunistic there, and because I'm not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment. Araris' post is NAI at worst and slightly village at best.

I'm not a SE historian, but This seems valid. It's regarding a D1 lynch for someone we know is village at this point. Len defended Araris, and then voted Bugsy for being too opportunistic. This seems like as valid a suspicion someone can have on D1 as anything else. It doesn't change my read of Len. I haven't gone through Bugsy's posts, but it could change my alignment there.

Quote

Excerpt from Doc12's post:

On other matters, the vote count goes thus 

Araris (1): Eternum (Self-stated random vote)

Walin (1): Mark (Another random vote)

Devotary (2): Val, Fifth (Nothing against them personally except a grudge from a past game and having a weird name) 

Bugsy (2): Araris, Elenion (Bugsy's seeming opportunisticness in voting on Araris, and for lack of a better target)

There's just been a lot of random voting this cycle, with only the lynch on Bugsy having any semblance of a reason, speaking of which, 

  On 6/3/2018 at 0:56 AM, Elenion said:

I'm going to jump in and defend Araris here, because I'd actually put it as a village indication. Something like this has come up in multiple games before: IIRC it's called the Ripple Effect because it was RippleGylf who one game messed up the names of the village and elim teams and everyone thought it was a slip. An elim is more likely to scrutinize their posts for accuracy before posting than a villager is, so it's more likely that a villager would make an RP slip than an elim. Bugsy, because I agree with Rand that you looked very opportunistic there, and because I'm not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment. Araris' post is NAI at worst and slightly village at best.

Uhm, Len, aren't you being just a little opportunistic as well? Bugs explicitly said that he felt Araris' post was NAI (which you agreed with), and he would only vote on Araris if there's nothing better to vote on (Of which you are guilty of saying exactly the same) 

Yes, we could very easily say that Len was also being opportunistic on that vote. But just as Doc pointed out right after listing the vote totals. The lynch on Bugsy is the only one, in his opinion, to have "any semblance of reason" So, even though it is opportunistic, it also has some semblance of reason. Now it is a tiny bit hypocritical. So it does affect my overall read of Elenion. It has gone from moderately village, now to only slightly village, close to Neutral.

Quote

Bugsy(responding to elenion): Posted Sunday at 09:13 AM

Were I attempting to be opportunistic, wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well? I could simply have flown beneath the radar. As an elim, I certainly wouldn't be calling attention to something that minor this early in the game, especially because the elims have no incentive to direct the vote this early; it's very unlikely we'll hit an elim day one, so they can just stay back and later vote on targets of opportunity after skating beneath the radar. 

Speaking of, isn't this sort of what you're doing? I said Araris' post was NAI, but slighly Elim at worst. You say this is opportunistic, although I fail to see it at all as advantageous. Then, as you accuse me of being opportunistic, you do the very same thing, saying you're voting for me because you're "not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment". You're acting in a far more opportunistic manner than I am, voting on someone who's already leading in votes for an infraction you admit is minor and for something you yourself have done. I did not even vote in mine, leading to absolutely no influence on the lynch, much less on someone eliminators would deem an acceptable target because I'm already subject to suspicion

Ok good point, Bugsy didn't actually vote. Someone in the main thread on that day mentioned that an elim would have been more careful. That being said, It does seem odd. So At the end of this analysis, depending on where it goes, i might put a poke vote on you, just to see your response, If I don't find it during my analysis. Due to no longer understanding your reasoning, I am changing my read of Len to Neutral.

Quote

Mr. Doctor(portion): Posted Sunday at 09:22 AM

I don’t like the way that Araris and Elenion jumped on Bugsy in the way that they did. Bugsy made an innocent statement that didn't seem at all suspicious from a technical standpoint, and justified it well with a follow-up post, but they haven't yet rescinded their votes. That may change, but it currently smells unpleasant to me. Araris was willing to vote against Bugsy for virtually no justification, based on a statement was entirely reasonable on Bugsy’s part, and Elenion followed him.

As Doc, my fellow medical practitioner, pointed out: that’s unsustainable. I can think of two potential conclusions from this. Firstly, they are happy to sow distrust where none needs to exist in the name of getting the ball rolling. Secondly, and perhaps worse, they’re coordinating. Either option is not nice in my books. If they will happily sacrifice the integrity and net trust of the Village, then I’m not sure if they should be considered reliable, regardless of roles. If they’re coordinating, then we have a bigger problem.

However, Elenion has offered helpful posts earlier, and appears to be well-engaged in this game. Since the vote against Bugsy only a small part of his activity so far, and the bulk of it has been discussion on the game mechanics, I’m more willing to trust him to try and move things along with a vote. Regardless, this has earned him a place on a list.

Araris was the instigator of this attack on Bugsy, and he doesn’t nearly have the saving graces that Elenion does. I can’t say that I have any idea about Araris's alignment, but as I stated earlier, either conclusion from this is not good, which means that voting on him is my best option.

I hope that everyone’s names can be cleared and we can resolve it before this turns into something worse.

Sorry, Doctor, Not everyone's name was cleared in time, though, now Araris's name has been cleared, it was too late. Other than that, Doctor discussed Elenion, upon a retrospective analysis, I think that Doc is correct, Len did have some saving posts. But they are starting to look less and less important. I find errors in Doctor's logic, but I don't think I would have seen those errors at the time he made the post. So I don't think there's any coordination between doc and Len, so both remain neutral.

Quote

Bugsy: Posted Sunday at 09:33 AM 

@Elenion, what do you think of this argument? I'm still suspicious of you, but this raises a good point. At the same time, I'd argue the same could be held true for me, and I'm hesitant to withdraw my vote when you're engaging in what I feel is suspicious behavior.

So far, I haven't seen any answer posts from Len. I'll give him time. 

Quote

  On 6/3/2018 at 9:33 AM, Bugsy said:

@Elenion, what do you think of this argument? I'm still suspicious of you, but this raises a good point. At the same time, I'd argue the same could be held true for me, and I'm hesitant to withdraw my vote when you're engaging in what I feel is suspicious behavior

I'm generally of the opinion that lynching very-actives D1 is not as good as lynching less-actives, ceteris paribus, but actives should be lynched if they are more suspicious.

And as for why I thought it was opportunistic, but that my vote was not, you expressed it very well here:

  On 6/3/2018 at 9:13 AM, Bugsy said:

Were I attempting to be opportunistic, wouldn't it make much more sense to vote back on him because he had voted on me and simply wait to retract until he did so as well? I could simply have flown beneath the radar. As an elim, I certainly wouldn't be calling attention to something that minor this early in the game, especially because the elims have no incentive to direct the vote this early; it's very unlikely we'll hit an elim day one, so they can just stay back and later vote on targets of opportunity after skating beneath the radar.

This is exactly what you did: you got on, saw that Araris had said something questionable, and called attention to it. As you said, elims have no incentive to vote this early. You did not put a vote down on Araris, but you provided yourself with a way to vote on him later. Your statement made him into a "target of opportunity" that an elim!Bugsy could vote on.

My vote differs from yours for two reasons. I didn't do the opportunistic set-up for a later vote; I put my vote down right away. I also didn't think you had good reason to vote on Araris, but I had reason to vote on you because you were taking something that Araris did that I was reading village on, and then spun it in a way that made him look guilty. That looks elim-y, so I voted on you, with that vote also moving the lynch away from Devotary (who is being voted on for no in-game reason).

Here's his responses to some of the questions asked of him. I don't think that the logic here is the best personally. Bugsy performed an action that seems typical to me. He pointed out something questionable, and said he might vote on it later on in the cycle. I'm pretty sure I've seen that a lot. I don't know if it's something that Elims try more than villagers, but it seems pretty standard to me. Bugsy basically said, Hey araris, why shoudn't i vote for you.

But the second paragraph does sound better, You did provide a reason for your vote on Bugsy. Fortunately you were able to find one.

Overall, I feel the response wasn't thought out enough to be Certainly Elim, but it also was thought out too much to make it a certain village response. combined with all the other posts so far, I am going to put you as very slight elim, like 51-53% Very small. (I personally think that my response doesn't completely make sense here, and I'll probably get some criticism about it. Just know that whatever my thought process was, it led me to lean slightly elim on Len.)

Continuing on, Bugsy and Len get into as fifth scholar calls it, a "heated exchange" As I read through that, I noticed that I didn't agree with all the arguments on either side, and they both acted very defensive. It looked too real to be coordinated, but it is very possible that one of them was an elim. We are still too close, with not enough additional information to allow hindsight to be 20/20, but I definitely want to examine bugsy now as well. 

Quote

Eternum: Posted Sunday at 02:06 PM

This entire Bugsy-Araris-Len exchange has been.. Interesting. Right now, I've begun to suspect that Bugsy and Araris are distancing, and while Len's "defense" of Araris seemed.. unnecessary at best, it's not a priority of mine to think about it, mainly because it could go either way. The fact that Bugsy only reacted to Araris's post (the one @Mark IV quoted) after it was brought up by someone else, despite it being a prime target for accusations, makes me uneasy. So I'll be leaving my vote on Araris for now. Depending on how he flips, if he gets lynched, I want to/will look at Rand, Bugsy and Len as the most contributing (discussion-wise) players this cycle.

I actually really agree with this post, even though I didn't earlier. Mostly you were discussing Bugsy's actions, but it is possible that it was a well planned distancing technique. I know I just said that I didn't think so, but the way Eternum worded it changed my mind. Definitely going to do a Bugsy Analysis soon!

Let's get back on topic now: Len

Quote

Doc12: Posted Monday at 01:26 AM

Well, no, you didn't do the set up for the vote, but you did vote on Bugs based on what could be perceived as a setup by Randuir, who first mused on Bugsy's post as being oportunistic.  So... sure, your vote differed from Bugs in that you didn't do the set-up. It could be argued that a setup by one elim followed by a vote by another elim would be even better of a strategy than the same one posting, and then voting in a later post. Not that this means I think you're an elim just yet, it does seem a little too careless, but... Well, you've never been shy about drawing attention to yourself, have you?  In any case, hope you understand where I'm coming from. 

Yet another look at Len's exchange with Doc. I don't think that it's all necessarily true, but it is good to note, and consider. No opinion yet on the veracity of this argument.

Quote

Elenion: Posted Monday at 08:21 AM

I wasn't meaning to use Randuir's arguments as a setup, but I see how it could be perceived that way. And no, I never have been shy about that sort of thing. 

@Sart I don't think it would be a good idea to vote on Roadwalker. It's true that Max could make things difficult for us if he decided to help the elims, but voting on him and threatening him with the lynch are what's going to make him want to work with the elims in the first place. I know you wouldn't have voted on Road unless you were fairly sure we could get an advantage out of it, so what was the advantage?

I just love it when the person I'm analyzing responds to the post that they are mentioned in, it makes analysis funner. He also asks a question. Let's see if he provides more info as to why he asks the question in a further post.

 

Starting D2, Len does some poems, about how the Village has really messed some things up. Yes we have. We've lost one important role, which also took away the ability from another important role. oops. 

I really don't want to go through all of Len's posts and mentions from the rest of the day cycle, there are almost 200 of those if you search for "len" anywhere on the page. Most of those results actually refer to Len

I told Fifth Scholar That I would remove my vote from him, so I am going to do that. I will, for now change it to Elenion. But please, Before anyone else votes Elenion, Do an analysis of Bugsy. I noticed that today, there has been a lot more discussion on Elenion than on Bugsy. First, everyone thought he was the man in black, then he said he wasnt. I want to point out that my vote on him is from D1 information, and not much from d2, because I was running out of time. 

I will try to get back to this later today. So Hold tight, Len, My vote might change. 

[Jondesu]

Whatever works best for you, @Steeldancer.

[Steeldancer]

Unless there are any complaints, I’m going to extend the cycle by 24 hours. Speak now, or forever hold your peace. 

[CadCom]

So far the vote tally is 

Shorter night (1) Elenion
Don't care (3) randuir, Eternum, Jondesu
Extend by a day (1) anonymous

In all seriousness, I am fine either way. So I don't have an opinion either. But I want everyone to know that I won't be very active from Friday afternoonish (Mountain time) until the end of Monday. I should be able to get on and check, but don't expect any analysis posts from me. 

Edit: Literally Ninja'd, while I was pushing submit...

 

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by Cadmium Compounder

[Eternum]

I'd prefer a shorter night, tbh.

[Rathmaskal]

+1 for shorter night

[CadCom]

Someone please tell me I'm missing something or someone, because despite this thread having 73 posts, I counted 6 votes

Eternum (1) Elbereth
Fifth (1) Rath
Sart (1) Snip
Elenion (2) Eternum, CadCom
Straw (1) Sart

It's almost a 5 way tie for first. All I have to do at this point is remove my vote. And Honestly, I'm considering moving my vote to Bugsy after I analyse his posts more closely. If I do that, then it would become a 6 way tie...

Which would be fun to see the write-up about, But At the same time, I don't know how much information that would give us...

[Rathmaskal]

Unless I missed a removal...you missed the vote on HH from Elenion.

[CadCom]

No, I think I missed it. So If I do end up changing my vote, we will have  a 7 way tie.

[DeTess]

So, where was I?

Doc12

...hasn't actually posted today yet. @Doc12? My position on him hasn't changed much. His tone is good, I haven't seen anything articulately suspicious yet, and I'm fairly certain I need to keep a close eye on him.

Dalinar

hasn't posted much yet.. @Dalinar Kholin, how is your catch up coming along? Are there any insights you'd be willing to share already?

Bugsy

My read on him is currently fairly neutral. I had some mild suspicions of him initially, but based on his defenses I concluded that what had made me suspicious was fairly NAI for him. However, I do note that Bugsy hasn't really posted much today apart from speculation about the dread pirates identity. @Bugsy, do you have any current suspicions that you are willing to share with us?

A quick intermezzo , regarding something I only just noticed on a re-read. HH apparently knew that Roadwalker wasn't Max, which makes me elan a bit mroe village on him. I can't really figure out why the elims would have hit roadwalker unless they believed his Max claim and wanted him out of the picture quickly, so if HH had been an elim and knew that, then I can't figure out why they would have hit him anyway. @Hemalurgic Headshot, did Roadwalker say anything else in that PM that could explain why the elims would have hit him?

Straw

Given how many posts he's made there's surprisingly little content. @Straw, who are your current suspicions?  Is there anyone you think is fairly likely to be village?

I'd be inclined to put straw on neutral, but he's had enough posts that I don't actually like his silence on reads that much. very slight elim read for now (maybe this time, for once, I'll be right...)

 

Edited June 6, 2018 by randuir

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

@randuir Our PM was very brief. I asked him if he was actually Max, and he said no. I then offered to keep up his charade, since keeping the real Max alive seemed like a good idea. That's literally all that was in the PM.

[Eternum]

That "charade" is now (mostly) dead and buried, just like Roadwalker

[Val]

Well! I was the Man in Black.

Sorry to disappoint, everyone. I probably would've tried to defend Araris on Day 1, but when most of that exchange happened I was at a pool party/meeting (should this be in blue?), and didn't really use my phone until around 10 pm my time that day. Sorry, sorry. And yeah, Kidpen was my kill. I don't even quite remember what made me think "Well I might as well kill them"..., sorry, again. In-depth analysis (or analysis, in general) is not my thing, and I will work on that. 

For some reason, I thought everyone had to choose someone to lynch.  For now, I'll try to have my eyes on Elenion, Eternum, Bugsy, and Fifth, but won't vote for anyone.

I hope that clears some things up.

goes back to the shadows

[DeTess]

Mr Doctor

He's certainly showing his work with insightful and interesting posts.  He's also making me paranoid because he seems to really know his stuff, but I'm just going to assume he did a bunch of reading in advance. I found it odd how apologetic he seemed about the Araris lynch before Araris had even flipped, and how odd he found the kill on Kidpen. He wouldn't be the first new player to be put off by the general bloodthirstyness of this game though.

I'd like to put him as village, but those two things I mentioned could possibly be an elim slip (or just general new-player ness. I remember Walin (I think) was pretty upset about the way the day 1 lynch target got taken down, and that got village!Walin lynched as the D1 lynch hit an elim). I'm keeping him as Neutral and on my watch-list.

I kinda want to do some other things this evening as well, so I'm going to cut my analysis a bit short here. I haven't seen much AI from Rath, @Mark IV, @Coop772 and @Rebecca, with those I pinged having posted very little in general. Hey people, do any of you have any suspicions at this point? Same goes for Val, but he jsut claimed Dread Pirate, so unless someone counter-claims I suppose he's cleared. Likewise I have no reason to doubt Elbereth's Claim of being Max right now.

Sart voted on roadwalker C1, and the attack on Roadwalker places that in the same convoluted WIFOM case as it does Walin. This cycle he voted on Straw for pretty much the same reasons as I'm currently suspecting him. Not much of note here ither.

So, general conclusions: there's a lot of people posting very little right now. This is very annoying because any number of the elims could be hiding among them, but lynching among them is a crapshoot that won't get us much information. On the other hand, lynching among the actives could leave us with a very quiet game if those currently being quiet don't step up.

My current elim reads are Devotary, Straw, Elenion and Eternum, more or less in that order form most to least suspicious, but I have no hard suspicions on any of them right now. In fact, I'm tempted of borrowing Alvrons trick from MR29 and rolling a  4-sided die. I won't do that though. I'm going to vote on Devotary, as his slight defense of Araris still feels off to me, and partly because process of elimination drops the other 3 for this cycle at least. I feel like I end up lynching straw just about every time I've got no better idea, I've got a PM with Eternum that's given me a not-horrible gut-read, and I feel like Elenions posts today have been better than what made me initially suspicious of him.

[CadCom]

11 minutes ago, randuir said:

Mr Doctor

He's certainly showing his work with insightful and interesting posts.  He's also making me paranoid because he seems to really know his stuff, but I'm just going to assume he did a bunch of reading in advance. I found it odd how apologetic he seemed about the Araris lynch before Araris had even flipped, and how odd he found the kill on Kidpen. He wouldn't be the first new player to be put off by the general bloodthirstyness of this game though.

So, I noticed the same thing when I was doing my analysis of Elenion. So I thought back to my first games, when I did something, I wanted people to talk about it, even if it was small. So My immediate reaction was to think that they might be the man in black. 

But Val just said this:

35 minutes ago, Val said:

Well! I was the Man in Black.

Sorry to disappoint, everyone. I probably would've tried to defend Araris on Day 1, but when most of that exchange happened I was at a pool party/meeting (should this be in blue?), and didn't really use my phone until around 10 pm my time that day. Sorry, sorry. And yeah, Kidpen was my kill. I don't even quite remember what made me think "Well I might as well kill them"..., sorry, again. In-depth analysis (or analysis, in general) is not my thing, and I will work on that. 

For some reason, I thought everyone had to choose someone to lynch.  For now, I'll try to have my eyes on Elenion, Eternum, Bugsy, and Fifth, but won't vote for anyone.

I hope that clears some things up.

goes back to the shadows

That seems as clear of a role-claim as I've seen. (It rivals Kidpen's from his first game, which was also my first game) But Val even provided evidence, which makes it very likely that she's telling the truth

So that made me start thinking that Mr. Doctor could possible be Elim trying to just find out the reasoning behind the shot. maybe behind the death of a teammate. But Mr. Doctor, even though it's his first game seems smarter than making a move like that. 

My vote is currently on Elenion, because I have a slight elim read on him, by reading the posts. But my gut is telling me to go with Bugsy or Doctor. Hopefully my analysis of Bugsy will end with time for me to explore Mr. Doctor as well.

 

[Bort]

Well, I've read through everything, and am glad the day has been extended by 24 hours. It means I can reread it again before I decide who to vote for. Currently, I have no strong elim reads on anyone, hence wanting the reread, but part of me wonders if Elbereth really is Max. I could see this turning into a total "I'm Brian" moment...

"I'm Max!"

"No, I'm Max!"

"I'm Max, and so's my wife!"

Oh, I think I know how to confirm Max, switching to PMs to be sure...

Edit: Actually, before I do that... Are PMs night only?

Edited June 6, 2018 by Bort

[DeTess]

4 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

So that made me start thinking that Mr. Doctor could possible be Elim trying to just find out the reasoning behind the shot. maybe behind the death of a teammate. But Mr. Doctor, even though it's his first game seems smarter than making a move like that. 

Hmm, that would definitely be worth looking at once we know how Kidpen flips.

[Rathmaskal]

I'm fairly certain I understand the terms in context, but could you define AI and NAI (assumed to be Not AI)?

[DeTess]

1 minute ago, Rathmaskal said:

I'm fairly certain I understand the terms in context, but could you define AI and NAI (assumed to be Not AI)?

Alignment indicative and Not alignment indicative.

[Rathmaskal]

Ahhh, not quite what I assumed.  That makes more sense.  I was assuming 'Analysis' or 'Insight' were going to be one of the words.

As for my suspicions, at this point I would say my analysis is a bit sophomoric.  There's really only so much you can gather in the first cycle or two regarding anyone's allegiance, regardless of what they say in a thread.  I'm relatively certain that the majority of the people here are skilled enough in this game that they can manage a considerable amount of deceit via what, in this situation, is a text-based social deduction game.  Between two different games, I could legitimately just copy/pasta certain responses and if everything is taken at face value, it would appear my allegiances between the two games would be the same.  So, I don't think it would be very helpful if I attempt to break down what people say, especially since I'm not nearly as familiar with everyone else as most of you are with each other.  I have read through all of the analysis others have written and between that and some general feelings I have, here are some of my thoughts (in a rather random order) of some people who have been reasonably active:

Fifth: Obviously I'm currently voting for him.  This is a situation where actions speak louder than words.  The recent comment regarding these games being rather bloodthirsty at the start does have be second-guessing this vote a bit, but I'm not sure why anyone would want to put the literary nail in someone's coffin like was done.  My thoughts are that at least one, likely 2 or 3, of the people who voted for Araris on day one is bound to be elim.

Elenion: CadCom's analysis is about where my thought process was going at the time.  Always nice when someone else can write everything out so I don't have to.

randuir: You're taking the approach I often do in live games (and try to do consistently) of just providing consistent analysis for as long as possible before actually trying to take a side.  I'm sure it's by design so that you can continue to utilize the strategy in all games, regardless of whether village or elim, but I have little to no read on you.

CadCom: Your analysis is so far a bit too close to mine for comfort.  I dread the idea of you being an elim since I'm sure that will shine a bad light on me so I'm HOPING that you turn out to be village...but, you can hope in one hand and...well, you know the saying (either that or I just dated myself as much older than the majority of the people here).  The one thing I'm unsure of...not sure where you're seeing this 'evidence' that Val is providing...  Everything mentioned was readily-available information at this point (other than mindset).

Dalinar: Started a PM with Dalinar last "night"...not getting a read through there...too few posts here to provide much insight either.  Also didn't answer my question (via PM) of how the Stormfather was doing.

HH: Elenion's initial analysis on the day 1 lynching had me leaning elim here as well...  I still can't discount the analysis, but as Elenion's allegiance falls into question, it's also time to look for counter-evidence.

Elbereth: At this point I'm willing to take the Max claim at face value.

Bugsy: The difference in tone from day 1 to day 2 is interesting.  Seems like once Araris was out of the game, Bugsy was able to take a step back and become a bit more calm.

Eternum: Action-based analysis has the negative strike of voting for Araris...there's no way all 5 votes were elim though...that would be extremely sloppy.

doc12: Nothing much...just the bad vote.

MrDoctor: Lots of analysis (by him, not on him)...bad vote...

Steeldancer: Clearly the GM

Once the next cycle runs its course, I feel like we'll have a lot more information (and obviously fewer players to analyze).  At this point, though, as with most others in the game, I have mostly neutral reads.

Edited June 6, 2018 by Rathmaskal
Remove extra line-break

[DeTess]

6 minutes ago, Rathmaskal said:

randuir: You're taking the approach I often do in live games (and try to do consistently) of just providing consistent analysis for as long as possible before actually trying to take a side.  I'm sure it's by design so that you can continue to utilize the strategy in all games, regardless of whether village or elim, but I have little to no read on you.

Yeah, this is a pretty fair appraisal. You'll see me start to vote earlier in the later cycles as numbers drop and people get cleared but right now I try to keep as wide a focus as possible and evaluate everyone before making a decision. 

[Fifth Scholar]

I will throw a vote on Elephant Earwax. This is partly to do with me not having done an analysis of the thread, and partly because he’s said literally nothing except two jokes and a response to Randuir when he was poked. @ElephantEarwax anything to say?

[Rebecca]

Wow, that’s a lot of new long posts. I just skimmed through the thread. I will be gone for the next three days though. I’m leaving Thursday morning and coming back Saturday evening (Mountain Time). I’ll read through the thread, and maybe post something else before I leave. So far, what I’ve picked up is that Val was apparently the Man in Black, and that Roadwalker was not Miracle Max, but Elbereth is. I have no reason to doubt Val. And I’m pretty sure I believe that El is Miracle Max, but I thought the same thing when Road claimed. Otherwise, I’m getting a mostly neutral read on everyone.

[Straw]

I’m a bit suspicious of Sart, mainly due to the fact that he voted on me. 

My other thought is that we shouldn’t focus too much on the last minute push on Araris. It was most likely due to people being desperate to have a solid lynch, and people who were reading the thread right before rollover.