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21 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

 

@Cadmium Compounder, I'm female, by the way. :P

Oops!:o I am trying to use gender neutral terms, because, as it turns out, I am very bad at determining genders based off online names. But I do see that I still used "he" twice when talking about you. Sorry;)

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Anyway, on to the next group of people, starting with:

Cadcom(who ninja'd me, and more than doubled his word-count doing so)

I've talked about CadCom before when I voted on him. I can see his explanation for it being a bit of a D1 joke-vote, but an elim would probably say the same thing. His analysis of Fifth is interesting, but I have a bit of trouble seeing how he comes to his conclusion. Unless I'm mistaken, he puts a bunch of stuff down as NAI, as well as some stuff as village or elim that seems to balance out. @Cadmium Compounder, could you maybe make a short summary of your long analysis post in which you explain what made you decide Fifth was suspicious?

Overall(apart form the conclusion), his analysis of Fifth seem fair, and I hope he keeps this up. 

Neutral-ish read.

Devotary

The one thing that stood out to me is that Devotary noted that he didn't believe Araris' actions where worth lynching over. He then proceeds to vote on Bort. though his reasoning for that isn't bad, i find it odd that he didn't make a vote better positioned to help Bort if he believed Bort was a mislynch. Elim!Devotary could have made that comment regarding Araris to look better when he got mislynched, without actually doing anything to fight that lynch. @Devotary of Spontaneity,c an youe xplain your position on Aaris from alst cycle again?

Slight elim read for now.

Eternum

Heh, I missed his question about how slow this game is by championship standards. @Eternum, I'm pretty certain I alone outposted all of cycle 1 over the course of that game, and the person that had posted most had more posts than a lot of our smaller games have over their entire run (about 600 or so). I'll let you draw your own conclusions :P.

 For the rest, your comment about Elenion seemingly reading Araris village without reason is interesting, but I'll look more into that once I get to Elenion. The same goes for your catch of Doc stating that it was a self-claimed joke vote when you hadn't actually stated that (the opposite, in fact, you alter backed that vote up with some reasoning). I'll also be interested in seeing the conclusions you'll draw from yesterdays discussion.

On the other hand, I still don't particularly like the quick vote you made against Araris, and the way you seem to try to portray it as a joke-vote now, while it was a vote he was backing up with some analysis before doesn't sit well with me

Slight elim read.

HH

His reasons for voting Araris look reasonable, given that he'd decided to focus on that group because they where the loudest discussion. His response to suspicion from elenion seems very village on tone. I'd also expect an elim to be scrambling for ways to get the suspicion off hi, or finding ways to turn it against someone else, rather than acknowledging it as fair.

I'm reading him neutral for now, and hope to see more content from him to be able to refine that read.

More to come in an hour or so, if I'm still awake enough by then.

Edited by randuir
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@Elbereth I should answer.. what, exactly? Did I miss something? 

@randuir What you're missing is that when I placed it, I intended it to be a joke vote. As the cycle progressed, I decided to leave it where it was for reasons I have stated.

Also, something to note regarding progression of thought, seeing as it's been a topic of discussion. Villagers actually do have it, while elims cannot. However, they can appear to have it. The difference is that elims have to plan it all out, thus making it more likely to seem "artificial" if they're not careful. Also, it coincidentally takes more time. It takes an obscene amount of effort to make something sound genuine if it's not. So, any posts like as CadCom's should be thoroughly scrutinized. All posts, imo, should be thoroughly scrutinized, but if I'm not willing to do something then I won't genuinely suggest it, and I lack both the patience and time necessary to do such a thing :P

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In 1st Cycle Roadwalker lied

I'm the miracle man he cried

But Headshot had proof

that that was a spoof

that to protect Max, Road mostly died

 

After road posted his claim

Sart attacked seeming to mame

He no evidence presented,

Just anger he vented

And Later backed down from his claim

 

Sart's 2nd post caused me much thought

the anger seemed to have rot

the wording cried intrigue

like Sart with those in league,

who caused Road's heart to stop.

Sart

Edited by Snipexe
a stanza didn't make sense
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1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I don't know Fifth extremely well, but He has been one of the people I have paid close attention to throughout. Being a new player, I try to look to the players that seem like they know what they're doing, and Fifth has been one of those players. This seems out of character for what I usually see from him. he doesn't usually vote for someone from previous games. 

That being said... This is obviously a joke vote, and it will be changed. The post gave a mild elim vibe, but not enough to worry about, because it's a joke post. 

No need to use capital letters when using pronouns referring to me. I only pretend to be divine :P 

I think I’ve told you this before, but I don’t have a better idea of what I’m doing than most people here. I’ve only been playing for a few months more than you have, and most people here that aren’t brand new have a lot more experience than I do. 

This vote was indeed out of character for me, but was the result of a moderate perusal of the thread, and the post was mainly meant to mark off how far I’d read through at least once. In addition, I was hoping Devotary would reply to it in some way, and see what kind of reaction I got, but that never really materialised. As you said, that was mostly a joke vote, and I’m unsure how you read “elim” from it other than a slight change in playstyle. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

This post made my previous mild elim vibe go back towards mild village. Bugsy, Araris, and Elenion had been discussing elim behavior, and Fifth didn't see it going anywhere, so he put an end to it. I still found it a bit suspicious that he would want to put an end to it though, as he usually tends to try to foster discussion.

I...didn’t put an end to it, just merely staked out my position on it. While the discussion around it did putter out slightly following my post, that’s hardly my fault, and has more to do with everything that could have been said about it, for the most part, already having been said. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Fifth's style is usually one of wanting to get information to work with, so this seems like it would reflect his normal style. However, It didn't feel right to me. Fifth tends to vote on people more often because of mild suspicion, plus good information. This time, it seemed to be fully for the purposes of more information. I began to lean back more towards Elim here. 

Yes, this is correct, I did this vote mainly for information. I would argue, however, that minor suspicion went along with it. While I felt worst about the way Len jumped on Bugsy, Araris wasn’t looking the greatest to me either, so in addition to information gathering I also voted based off my slightly bad read of Araris. Had I been voting for pure information, I would likely have voted Bugsy, as his flip would give more info on Araris and Len than Araris’ flip. Again, I’m not really sure how you see this as Elim-y. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I have also been noticing that fifth has been quieter than normal, and I will address that later.  Cementing a vote just seems out of Fifth's style, because he usually tries to gather more information, before cementing a vote. 

I’m unsure how much info I’m supposed to gather with seven minutes left in the cycle? Cementing the vote had to do with timing, and I certainly wasn’t going to spark a huge discussion between the two or three people around that could respond when there’s seven minutes for me to place a vote. As stated before, my previous quietness was due to IRL reasons, and I should be more active now. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:
Perfect! Fifth's response to everyone's criticism of him! I was in this position last game, and a little bit this game as well, Last game, I was village, so I know what it feels like to be put under suspicion when being innocent. I am going to analyze this post compared to what I would have said, having been put under similar suspicions. 

1. Blame it on IRL stuff. I definitely did that. What can I say, it was the truth. Most of the time my posts were less frequent, or less thought out, it was because I was busy. 

2. Hypocracy. He pointed out that he thought Len was being hypocritical. Then he proceeded to vote on Araris... What?

3. Oh, an explanation. Thanks again Fifth, for answering my questions when we need them. Len didn't have any votes, and it was too late to vote on him to get him lynched. So Instead make sure we get a lynch vote. 

4. Personally, I prefer closer votes. I think we can learn more from closer votes, that could potentially become ties. We would learn more about vote manipulation, and someone would die anyways to do analysis. I would have thought that Fifth would have thought the same, but Who knows? The explanation seems pretty innocent to me.

Issue with this: I’m not you. :P While I understand some parallels could be drawn in the way we would look at things while we’re under fire as villagers, no two responses will be the same. I’ll look at your points individually though. 

1. Yep, already stated most of my inactivity was due to IRL reasons. 

2. There was no way I was going to get Len lynched with seven minutes to spare. Wasn’t going to happen. So I voted Araris as the second-best target. I’ve explained this at least twice, if not three times now, and am frankly somewhat tired of doing so. While I could have voted on Len, why would I when he’s not getting killed anyway, and another person I found suspicious was up for the lynch regardless? 

3. Oops, just went on a long rant and you say the same things I did in the third bullet. :P Sorry. 

4. I used to think how you do, but now I’m more in the camp that information on vote manipulation is only useful if it’s somehow traceable to the vote manipulators. Since it appears two-thirds of the people in this game possess either Rum or a Dagger, vote manipulation is difficult to track, and a cemented, guaranteed outcome agreed upon publicly by the village was more useful than throwing the votes into chaos. I chose the former.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Ok, this seems fair. If you're busy, it makes it hard to post. Plus when you can get on, your first priority is most likely to catch up on the thread/PMs/Docs. So it takes more time to get to the rules. I think that the excuse is valid. However, it's equally valid if you are Elim, or if you are village, so it doesn't change my read of you.

Fair, none of that post should have changed your read on me.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Great poem! I should give it an upvote. I haven't done so yet. If I remember, I'll do it after I finish my analysis. Also, thanks for the summary at the bottom. That's the part that I want to analyze more. 

Admitting guilt is a pretty vilage thing in my opinion, unless it's a confession post. Because you have so far only been under mild scrutiny, that's obviously not what you're doing. But You do know how a battle of wits works. Once a battle of wits has begun between any two people who know how a battle of wits works, it essentially becomes random, and no answer can be 100% satisfactory until the results are revealed. So you could be an elim, doing something that looks villagey, or a villager, doing something that looks like an elim doing a villagey thing, or just a villager doing a village thing...You get the idea.

Eh. Admitting guilt isn’t really alignment indicative either way unless it’s a straight-up confession. It would have been stupid of me to try to distance myself from the Araris lynch, regardless of my alignment, given my earlier comments. As you said, it turns into an IKYK. This post was mainly just my initial thoughts after seeing that Araris had flipped as Buttercup.

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

Tone, in my opinion can easily be faked, if you attempt to put effort into your posts. I agree that There isn't much hard evidence for villageness in their posts at all. 

This is true—tone shouldn’t make you definitively read someone one way or the other, but it may be a contributing factor. I’m not sure that effort denotes good tone, but I suppose it is one of the factors that goes into it. 

1 hour ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

I don't think the Man in Black should claim. He now no longer has his kill ability. If I recall from MR 29, I had the tiebreaker role, and no one asked that person to role claim so people could know who he was. Obviously, needing to know someone's reasoning can be important, but N1 kills are likely "I had a little bit of suspicion, plus I wanted to use my power" Especially if the player is newish. That's what I ended up doing in MR 29.

Honestly, I haven't looked much at the long posts from this cycle yet, I've been spending too much time doing an analysis of Fifth. But that's next on my list, re-analyze everything this cycle so far. But I am fairly certain that Fifth is correct. Excelent Analysis Doctor! Thank you for your insight. 

So I did this analysis of Fifth because I was suspicious of him. I intend to to more analyses as the game continues, I just wanted to do his first. I still have that suspicion, so Fifth Scholar. Depending on your response, I may remove my vote, but for now it is stuck right there.

I did. I asked you to claim in PM :D Jokes aside, you’re probably right, and now that several people have hedged against Westley claiming I suppose I’ll do the same. While I still believe it would give us information, I suppose the cost outweighs the benefit. I still think they should claim if we’re about to lynch them, though. 

I suppose my final question is what exactly you’re suspicious of me for. I can’t really find an underlying theme in your post about why I’m suspect or how my posts have been ringing mental Eliminator alarms, so I’d appreciate you explaining that. I think a bit of it was meta reasoning, which somewhat scares me, as it tells me that I’ve been around long enough that I’ve developed an analyzable playstyle and have become *shudder* consistent. That’s not good. :P  

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30 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

 I think a bit of it was meta reasoning, which somewhat scares me, as it tells me that I’ve been around long enough that I’ve developed an analyzable playstyle and have become *shudder* consistent. That’s not good. :P  

Don't worry about it, I've grown increasingly conviced that this fabled "consistency" the more experienced players talk about is just a myth and nothing more. :P

On another note, you can't be consistent if you don't know your own playstyle!09-roll-safe.w710.h473.jpg

21 minutes ago, Elbereth said:

My vote on you, and the further discussion, is what I was referring to. Sorry if that wasn't clear. 

Ah, I see. Well, I've responded to your first suspicion to the fullest of my ability. Do you have any more questions or things you'd like to point out? For that matter, does anyone else?

I've been throwing a fair amount of shade around this cycle, but for now I'll vote for my first (and biggest) suspicion, Elenion.

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Alright, the final group I'll be able to get to today. I'll try to finish the rest tomorrow.

Snipexe

Well, there's nothing much here to analyze. If Sart's evil, Snipexe is probably good, but that's about it. @Snipexe, do you have any reads on people other than Sart?

Neutral read.

Fifth Scholar

He posted a Defense of Bugsy during D1. If Bugsy's an elim, I'd be more suspicious of Fifth over that, and vice-versa. He then throws in that vote against Araris that has been discussed before. I disagree with the sentiment behind the vote (close votes can potentially get us some interesting info), but given that Araris flipped village, I can't see a reason for an elim to chip in a vote like that at the end of the day when no one else was really at risk of being lynched.

One thing that stands out is a bit of a lack of direct reads this cycle. There's a bunch of responses to other people reads, but he hasn't really provided any of his own, apart from the fact that he thought Elenion was the most suspicious of Araris, Elenion and Bugsy yesterday.

Neutral, or maybe very slightly village(mostly based on tone) read

Jondesu

Two posts, not much alignment indicative stuff. @Jondesu, you said that you think that arguments used during D1 are rarely alignment indicative. Can you elaborate a bit more on how D1 is different from D2 in this regard?

Elenion

I've already talked about Elenion's vote against Bugsy before. The point Eternum brought up about him seemingly reading Araris village for no reason is somewhat refuted (Elenion brought up that the comment from Araris that made Bugsy lean very slightly elim on Araris actually made him Lean more village on Araris), but I agree that that seems like a slim reason, and I haven't seen much else from Araris that would make me lean village on him back in D1.

Not much else stands out to me. The fact that the elims seemed fine with the focus around Elenion, Araris and Bugsy last cycle still makes me a bit more hesitant to continue lynching in that group, but Len's seemingly strong village read on Araris looks pretty odd on review.

Slight elim read.

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2 hours ago, randuir said:

I've talked about CadCom before when I voted on him. I can see his explanation for it being a bit of a D1 joke-vote, but an elim would probably say the same thing. His analysis of Fifth is interesting, but I have a bit of trouble seeing how he comes to his conclusion. Unless I'm mistaken, he puts a bunch of stuff down as NAI, as well as some stuff as village or elim that seems to balance out. @Cadmium Compounder, could you maybe make a short summary of your long analysis post in which you explain what made you decide Fifth was suspicious?

1 hour ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I suppose my final question is what exactly you’re suspicious of me for. I can’t really find an underlying theme in your post about why I’m suspect or how my posts have been ringing mental Eliminator alarms, so I’d appreciate you explaining that. I think a bit of it was meta reasoning, which somewhat scares me, as it tells me that I’ve been around long enough that I’ve developed an analyzable playstyle and have become *shudder* consistent. That’s not good. :P  

I guess I did put a lot of fluff in my post. So the main reason I am suspicious of Fifth is because I feel like his tone is different. He is not consistent with his usual playstyle. 

@Fifth ScholarYour response was very good indeed. I am considering removing my vote from you, but give me time to perform another analysis, so that my vote doesn't completely disappear. It might be near the end of the cycle. 

Also, Remember, that you will still remain on my Radar.

Edited by Cadmium Compounder
Originally I said "my vote completely disappears" but I meant to say "My vote doesn't completely disappear"
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@randuir My biggest problem with Len's read of Araris is that Araris made a joke. The post that gave Bugsy a miniscule elim read was apparently taken by Len as a village tell for some reason, when it should be completely NAI as simply humor and nothing more. I might be tunneling at this point though, so I'll go to sleep and look at everything again in a new light tomorrow :P

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3 minutes ago, Eternum said:

@randuir My biggest problem with Len's read of Araris is that Araris made a joke. The post that gave Bugsy a miniscule elim read was apparently taken by Len as a village tell for some reason, when it should be completely NAI as simply humor and nothing more. I might be tunneling at this point though, so I'll go to sleep and look at everything again in a new light tomorrow :P

I don't think I was disagreeing with you on this point?

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Oh darn, I've been inactive

But mark my words, I'll be reactive

To any accusations with a word of thought

That clears me or kills me, but it ought

To be informative indeed and quite wordy

Because if anything, a long post seems sturdy

As an alignment defense.

 

However, I may still fall under suspicion

I have been known to change my rendition

Of events, in accordance with knowledge granted

By being evil, or by an alignment slanted

I hope that here I don't seem too knowing

So as to avoid a great flowing

Of suspicion and hopping off the fence.

 

TL;DR--I hope to post heavy analysis and not seem like I know stuff I shouldn't. I jump to conclusions, but I don't want it to cause my death.

AKA Neutral reads only.

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My read on Araris was initially based on him seeming "loose". It just didn't strike me as elim-y how he voted on Bugsy, took it off, and then dropped a retaliatory vote on him. It was far too high-profile for a player whose team would be absolutely dependent on their survival. (Yes, it does turn out that we were dependent on his survival, but I had no clue that he was Buttercup. My reasoning was bad but it led to a correct read. XD) He didn't make any big posts defending himself, so my read on him intensified that he was just a vanilla or low-power villager. I defended him from Bugsy not knowing what he was, thinking he was a random villager getting accused by a possible-elim.

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2 hours ago, randuir said:

The one thing that stood out to me is that Devotary noted that he didn't believe Araris' actions where worth lynching over. He then proceeds to vote on Bort. though his reasoning for that isn't bad, i find it odd that he didn't make a vote better positioned to help [Araris] if he believed [Araris] was a mislynch.

It seemed like the main reason Araris was getting lynched was for his vote. I've seen Araris be willing to vote to kill early on before solid evidence is available, so I didn't see his vote for Busy as indicating that Araris was an evil cutthroat. At the time, the main alternatives to the lynch were Walin, Bugsy, and Devotary. I'm not going to vote for myself, and the only 'evidence' against Walin was that he is at the top of the player directory. That left Bugsy, but I didn't see good enough reasons to make him die. So, I voted Bort for arbitrarily putting Walin into a four way tie. 

Quote

Firstly, I'm surprised so much happened while I was asleep (I feel that I should clarify that I'm GMT+8, so the last seven or so hours of the cycle happen while I'm asleep) So Araris got three more votes piled up on him, Bugs and Len continued an argument, and the general consensus (Mr Doctor, Fifth, Rand) concluding that Bugs' first post was NAI.
...
I'm waiting for Steel to clarify on this, but Roadwalker and Walin were absolutely in no danger of being lynched, not with that huge vote margin on Araris - why would anyone feel the need to use their items on them? An attempt to get them noticed? 

So Doc12 starts off by saying that he missed the last three votes on Araris, then later on in that same post wonders as I did why someone would try to kill Roadwalker/save Walin and/or Bugsy when Araris was definitely getting lynched. There were only a few hours left in the cycle when Araris's death was finally clinched. It is definitely possible that the dagger wielder acted while Bugsy had as many votes as any on the vote tally. There were quite a few people who weren't around to see the day's finale.  

16 hours ago, Elenion said:

I'm going to take a look at that Araris bandwagon again. With the lynch being so volatile and not settling on a target until the very end of the cycle, I expect at least one voter on Araris to be an elim looking to solidify the vote. That assumes there was an elim with a vote on them, but there were enough different people accruing votes that I think it's a safe assumption.

If Bugsy and Araris turn out to both be village, I would not be surprised if the elims didn't feel a need to ensure that Araris hung. HH and Fifth Scholar especially hadn't said much that day cycle, so if either of them are evil with a village Bugsy, they would not have been obliged to decide which way the mislynch swung. An evil Bugsy would put more suspicion on them, I think. It would also make it more likely that the dagger wielder works for Prince Humperdinck.

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Hey! I live. I might post a few thoughts tomorrow, but all these large textposts are a bit overwhelming to me haha.

Analysis for me is hard. I'm trying to read everyone's posts, but so many different lines of thoughts have me confused. I should probably grab a paper, or open a Word document, and write down some stuff. Don't expect much activity from me though, but I'm watching from the shadows.:ph34r:

 

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Vote Count:

Eternum (1): Elbereth
Hemalurgic Headshot (1): Elenion
Fifth Scholar (2): Rathmaskal, Cadmium Compounder
Sart (1): Snipexe

For all the nonsense you've spun

Our leads are near none.

And voting really hasn't begun

We need our suspicions

To create bigger fissions

So please, abandon your missions

Of ranking the players

From weaklings to slayers

It buries the truth in more layers

Of meaningless prattle

Meaning a schoolyard tattle

Could start a meaningless battle

Let's cut to the chase

And finally place

Votes on whom to erase

With that being said

I want Straw to be dead

One reason I have in my head

He's followed along

But called no one wrong

And so I finish my song

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@randuir, I missed your question earlier about D1 posts being NAI. Basically, I find that people jump on just about anything they can on D1, or else abstain and/or go random, knowing that few people will know who to go for. Elims don’t have to lay low and stay silent, though some do, and it’s easy to pass off strange comments as rule clarifications or being new, and in fact if played well that could potentially be a good way to proactively dispel some suspicion (adds to playbook). 

I’m getting into more detail than I had thought about originally, but essentially, people act in a wide variety of ways on D1, mostly just based on non-game reasons. What happens then sets the tone for D2 and forward, however, and from that point we can see deviations from a particular player. Picking anything out from D1 posts exclusively seems to always lead to incorrect results in my experience, though.

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Right now the best info lynch would probably be Fifth, because then we could get reads on CadCom and Rathmaskal, plus any other players that Fifth interacted with. However, Fifth is a good analyst, and I don't think I'm willing to kill them for the sake of info alone. Maybe for the points against them, but not solely as an info lynch. Right now I'm going to hold my ground on HH being suspicious, but if I don't get any support in the next 11 or so hours I'll switch my vote to someone else with an analysis-based vote on them (right now Fifth or Eternum), because I have to work from then until turnover.

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15 hours ago, randuir said:

Bort

Bort has only a bit. His first post was a random vote on Walin, and posts after that where him explaining that vote, and asking some questions of participants in the Araris wagon. I don't have a proper read on him yet, but I do have a question. @Bort, in hindsight the Araris lynch is obviously a mislynch. If you where to look purely at C1 without that knowledge, do you think the Araris lynch had merit?

Without hindsight, pretty much all lynches have merit. The point of them is to gain information, and regardless of who gets lynched, information is provided. I do find it rather dubious that so many people would jump onto the bandwagon though, especially for day one. This is why I was asking for reasoning. To see if there was anything particular about why so many went for Araris.

Of course, with hindsight, lynching the Princess was a really bad move. I'll be placing my vote soon, probably on one of Araris' voters, but I'm going to see who has the excuse I feel is weakest.

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So Rollover might be late today, I mentioned it earlier. Would the players rather I am not on for rollover and have a shorter night (because this senior thing is going to take forever), or just simply extend the turn by one day? I'm alright either way. 

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2 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

So Rollover might be late today, I mentioned it earlier. Would the players rather I am not on for rollover and have a shorter night (because this senior thing is going to take forever), or just simply extend the turn by one day? I'm alright either way. 

I don't have particularly strong opinions either way. On that topic though: I will be pretty much inactive from Friday to Sunday because of an event I'm attending over the weekend.

 

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I don't mind either way, whichever works best for you, Steel.

I feel like we need to solidify a lynch at this point in the cycle. I'm going to keep my vote on Elenion.

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