Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

@Bort I chose Araris because I thought that he was my best option. I hadn't really thought about my options, and I was too lazy to search around for an updated vote count, so I didn't know how many votes he had. What actually "sealed his fate" were the votes that came afterward, pushing Araris further. Or something.

[CadCom]

On an unrelated note, not directly related to me, I'm pretty sure that many people on the 17th Shard are LDS(mormon), because Brandon Sanderson is mormon. With that being said, The prophet of the Mormon Church has challenged the youth(ages 12-17 I think) to do a week long detox, or fast from social media. I am not personally affected by this, and abstaining from Social media should be a personal decision that shouldn't necessarily affect the rest of game play, but I don't want this to negatively affect the game, with a bunch of people dying due to inactivity for the next week. So can I request that perhaps  an extension or exception be considered to the inactivity filter for anyone who would have died on the second cycle of this week?

Like I said, I am not personally affected, so I don't care if that happens or not. What does everyone else think about my suggestion? @Steeldancer, What is your opinion?

Once again, I don't want to bring religion into this, but If it turns out that enough people are inactive, I think it might be worth it to keep the game fun.

[Steeldancer]

13 minutes ago, Cadmium Compounder said:

On an unrelated note, not directly related to me, I'm pretty sure that many people on the 17th Shard are LDS(mormon), because Brandon Sanderson is mormon. With that being said, The prophet of the Mormon Church has challenged the youth(ages 12-17 I think) to do a week long detox, or fast from social media. I am not personally affected by this, and abstaining from Social media should be a personal decision that shouldn't necessarily affect the rest of game play, but I don't want this to negatively affect the game, with a bunch of people dying due to inactivity for the next week. So can I request that perhaps  an extension or exception be considered to the inactivity filter for anyone who would have died on the second cycle of this week?

Like I said, I am not personally affected, so I don't care if that happens or not. What does everyone else think about my suggestion? @Steeldancer, What is your opinion?

Once again, I don't want to bring religion into this, but If it turns out that enough people are inactive, I think it might be worth it to keep the game fun.

Being LDS myself, I decided I wasn't going to do that until the game is finished (I felt it would be a little rude to drop this on you all, plus I enjoy this). If anyone decides to make that decision, it would be best if they inform me and then we can get a pinch hitter. Personally, I don't interpret SE as social media, but that's personally. Plus, inactivity is not a major issue right now. So, if anyone decides to do that, I'll find a pinch hitter somewhere. Just please inform me, don't drop off without letting me know. 

[Bort]

2 hours ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

@Bort I chose Araris because I thought that he was my best option. I hadn't really thought about my options, and I was too lazy to search around for an updated vote count, so I didn't know how many votes he had. What actually "sealed his fate" were the votes that came afterward, pushing Araris further. Or something.

That's fair, and is also why I included the other two, since they helped seal his fate too.

[Dalinar Kholin]

Wow, okay, been really busy for the past couple of days and SE totally slipped my mind. I am officially back and ready to figure out what the heck has been going on.

P.S. No idea right now.

[Coop772]

1: Sorry I have been so inactive of late, had some irl responsibilities last weekend.
2: I'm back now. Probably won't get anything done by the end of the night, so I plan on reading back through everything and compiling analysis for day 2
3: Thanks for not noticing that I was inactive and punishing me for it

[CadCom]

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Being LDS myself, I decided I wasn't going to do that until the game is finished (I felt it would be a little rude to drop this on you all, plus I enjoy this). If anyone decides to make that decision, it would be best if they inform me and then we can get a pinch hitter. Personally, I don't interpret SE as social media, but that's personally. Plus, inactivity is not a major issue right now. So, if anyone decides to do that, I'll find a pinch hitter somewhere. Just please inform me, don't drop off without letting me know. 

Fair enough. That seems like a good plan. I personally interpret social media as stuff blocked on my work computer/on my work wifi. And miraculously, the Shard isn't blocked. So by default, it must not be Social Media.

____

I personally think Fifth has been playing a bit quieter than normal, but it seems, by everyone's own admission, we all seem to be busy with summer stuff. So, maybe it's just that. @Fifth Scholar What say ye?

[Fifth Scholar]

I say that my activity has been dampened by a more sporadically busy summer, and that I’m having trouble getting reads due to the sheer size of the player base and my unfamiliarity with the rules. (The latter is actually fairly easy to rectify, and I’ll look at the rules and get a good grip on them tonight, if I can.)

@Bort I believe I’ve already explained my vote, but if you have issues with my explanation feel free to question me. 

[Steeldancer]

Heh I got out of work early, rollover will be on time! 8 minutes left. 

[Steeldancer]

The night is over! Hold tight for a few minutes until I get the new day up. 

[Steeldancer]

Day Two: The Princess Died

Wesley had lost track of Buttercup. Where did she go?
He heard a scream, and a chill entered his heart, and he ran into the kitchen to find her dying. 
He saw the pirates in the room, terrified at him. They clearly had been drinking.
"You killed her... because she took the bishops hat?" Cold rage entered his voice. 
One stepped forward. "Um, we wanted the booze."
Wesley sighed, and stabbed him. "I will no longer be the man in black to you. You have killed me with your foolishness."
The other pirates ran, and Wesley held Buttercup's cold body in his arms. 

"Nice," 
"Seriously, hush." 

--- 

Brutus Kowd sat on a chair, entirely silent. He wore a sign around his neck that read:
"I will not speak
For a week."
"Excellent. No one will hear you say 'eeeeee'
When you are trapped in our tree." The Count grabbed Brutus, and indeed no one could hear him scream. 

Kidpen has been killed! He is Mostly Dead.

Roadwalker has been killed! He is Mostly Dead. 

Araris has totally died! He was the Princess/Buttercup. The Man in Black has become a normal villager. 

Spoiler

1. Walin (Bill Ted)

2. Bort (Asu Wish)

3. Elephant Earwax (Maw Wiage)

4. Araris Valerian (Araris) Princess/Buttercup

5. Cadmium Compounder (Indigo Montoya)

6. Devotary of Spontaneity (Polydactylous Pterrodactyle) 

7. Eternum (Rob Indie Banks)

8. Hemalurgic Headshot (Leonard Wilkins)

9. Snipexe (Exetes the Wandering Artist)

10. Fifth Scholar (Plaristocrates)

11. Jondesu (Q)

12. Elenion (Shree King Eelz)

13. Roadwalker (Brutus Kowd) Mostly Dead

14. Doc12 (D. Senfalo)

15. Dalinar Kholin (Reginald Canuk)

16. Bugsy (Dread Pirate Cummerbund)

17. Kidpen (Incan C. Vable) Mostly Dead

18. Straw (Straw)

19. Mr. Doctor (Dead Private Hobbert)

20. Val (Val)

21. Randuir (Captain K.C. Grumbleton)

22. Sart (Grandpa Lace)

23. Coop772 (Kay Oss)

24. Mark IV (Mark)

25. Elbereth (Elenta)

26. Rebecca (Sir Shrei King Eel)

27. Rathmaskal (Rath

Today's fashion is rhyming! You guys have done great so far, keep up the good work! We have a clear winner right now, but all it will take is a couple good posts to catch up. 

[Elenion]

The elims must be so thrill-ed

Our own vig role we kill-ed

And now it looks like they took Max

In the race for info we're sitting dead last

We need to get our game on, quick

Our else our defeat will surely stick

[Fifth Scholar]

Well, that’s awkward, the princess wasn’t supposed to die.

I could say my hands are clean, but that would be a lie. 

I suppose little Alv couldn’t hear such a terrible story,

Since Buttercup died before reaching her full glory. 

Now the rate of attrition will drastically decrease,

As Westley’s nightly kills have completely ceased. 

So I would advise our Miracle Worker, Max,

To perhaps take a day or two off and just relax. 

For if every person is resurrected after being killed, 

This game could go on for as long as Max willed. 

I suppose I’ll cast a vote later on in the turn;

However, first I shall simply watch the thread and learn

What other people think of this most tragic death,

And if we should make Max draw his final breath. 

Fourteen lines is awkward, so I’ll just add two more

To bring this poem four lines short of a full score. 

---

Yay for bad poetry! TL;DR—Buttercup died, I suppose I’m partially to blame, and without Westley killing people things will go much slower. Max should abstain from giving out a ton of pills so we can get information at a faster rate. I’ll put down a vote later but will wait for now and see what other people think. 

[Elenion]

24 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Yay for bad poetry! TL;DR—Buttercup died, I suppose I’m partially to blame, and without Westley killing people things will go much slower. Max should abstain from giving out a ton of pills so we can get information at a faster rate. I’ll put down a vote later but will wait for now and see what other people think. 

If Roadwalker was telling true

Max won't have any pill-giving to do

So unless you know of a different claimant

To the role of Max, but in thread abstain-ed

Max is dead, pills are no more

And mostly dead is dead for sure

[Bugsy]

As the Dread Pirate Cummerbund laid eyes on the dead body of the Princess, he felt his hopes for a peaceful resolution die inside him. He had been here to avoid a war between Gilder and Florin, but now, with the death of the princess, that no longer would be possible. The war was inevitable; now, he merely needed be sure his home country of Gilder would win it. To do so would necessitate the destruction of Florin leadership; if any were allowed to maintain power, war would surely follow. Musing, he considered what advantage this could bring him. Cummerbund, King of Florin, he thought in his head. It has a certain ring to it.

---

That was a really bad mislynch. It'll be hard for us to come back from this. Looking back at who defended Araris, Elenion seems to be the most obvious candidate for Dread Pirate Roberts, but as he hasn't claimed and whoever it was didn't kill me, I doubt that's the case. Other than that, I can't think of who it would be. If the ex Dread Pirate Roberts is reading this, I'd recommend you claim. Unless it's Kidpen or Roadwalker, we should be able to have a cleared village person for at least one cycle. I'm hesitant to establish a Mayor system, but with such an information disadvantage it may be a worthy trade for us to be able to set up a PM hub this night cycle, even if Roberts is killed the same night. 

29 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Max should abstain from giving out a ton of pills so we can get information at a faster rate

Roadwalker had claimed Max, so there's a very good chance we lost both the vigilante, the action suppressor, and the healer all in one turn. It's deeply unfortunate that we lost Buttercup, but I think losing Max the same turn may have been for the better, specifically so the game doesn't become endlessly prolonged.

Edit: Ninja'd by Len

Edited June 5, 2018 by Bugsy

[Straw]

Buttercup’s dead

Killed by the pirates, it’s said

Terribly sad

That things have turned bad

And Buttercup will not be the only one dead

---

Huh, looks like we’ve lost three of our most important roles. We should probably focus on protecting the Spaniard, so they can get as many scans as possible. As Bugsy pointed out, it’s pretty likely that Elenion is the Man in Black, due to his defense of Araris.

[Fifth Scholar]

14 minutes ago, Bugsy said:

Roadwalker had claimed Max, so there's a very good chance we lost both the vigilante, the action suppressor, and the healer all in one turn. It's deeply unfortunate that we lost Buttercup, but I think losing Max the same turn may have been for the better, specifically so the game doesn't become endlessly prolonged.

I’m...unsure if I believe Roadwalker’s claim? It seemed less of “I’m this person, here’s why” but more of a way of seeing how people responded to it. While he very well could be Max, I’d be unsurprised if he flips as a regular villager. That said, I agree that we should proceed as if there is no more healing, and everyone killed is dead permanently. Essentially, don’t count on Max to save us from mislynches. 

5 minutes ago, Straw said:

Huh, looks like we’ve lost three of our most important roles. We should probably focus on protecting the Spaniard, so they can get as many scans as possible. As Bugsy pointed out, it’s pretty likely that Elenion is the Man in Black, due to his defense of Araris.

Umm...first, Miracle Max isn’t really “our” role, as he’s neutral. Second, there is no protection role in this game iirc, so there is no way of getting the Spaniard to claim and then guard him as he scans. Third, I’m not sure that we should instantly draw the line to Len as the Man in Black. If he wishes to claim as such, that’s fine, but assuming something like that likely isn’t the greatest idea.

[Bugsy]

9 minutes ago, Straw said:

As Bugsy pointed out, it’s pretty likely that Elenion is the Man in Black, due to his defense of Araris

While this was my initial thought, I'm not really sure now. If Len were the Man in Black, I feel as if he'd likely have killed me last night, and that he'd have claimed this morning. Since neither of those is the case, I'm thinking it's someone else.

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

Since Roadwalker is now mostly dead

I feel I should reveal this info instead

Through my PM, I know he's not Max

So perhaps, you can relax.

[Straw]

11 minutes ago, Hemalurgic Headshot said:

Since Roadwalker is now mostly dead

I feel I should reveal this info instead

Through my PM, I know he's not Max

So perhaps, you can relax.

How do you know he’s not Max? Did he say that his claim was fake?

25 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Umm...first, Miracle Max isn’t really “our” role, as he’s neutral. Second, there is no protection role in this game iirc, so there is no way of getting the Spaniard to claim and then guard him as he scans. Third, I’m not sure that we should instantly draw the line to Len as the Man in Black. If he wishes to claim as such, that’s fine, but assuming something like that likely isn’t the greatest idea.

1. Technically, Miracle Max would have to help the village in order to achieve his win condition, so he would be at least mildly helpful to the village.

2. I was meaning that we should think up ways for him to safely pass his scans to the village, without being discovered.

3. I was basing that off of Bugsy’s post, which made a good point for why Elenion is probably village, and possibly the Man in Black.

[Jondesu]

Ouch.

I didn’t help, I’m just sitting on my couch.

I won’t put down my glass.

Or get up off my...

Sofa.

———

Seriously, though, I didn’t get to really have much of a part, and I hate day 1 lynches so I cant really fault what anyone said or did specifically in that Araris lynch originally, but while it’s bad we lost Buttercup right away, I am at least glad to see we’re not just going to get everyone revived, so we get some information going forward.

Edit: I’m not arguing the value of a day 1 lynch, I’ve just noticed that the arguments and accusations people use rarely have any indication of their alignment, so it’s not helpful in a direct sense.

Edited June 5, 2018 by Jondesu

[Hemalurgic Headshot]

@Straw Yes, he said his claim was fake. He wanted to cover for the actual Max, in case he was targeted. Which is definitely what seemed to happen.

[Elbereth]

Thoughts as I read through: 

@Araris Valerian, I know you’re dead now, but that first piece of RP you did probably made me laugh hardest out of anything that turn. Thanks for that.

@Steeldancer, questions on win conditions. So, say the Spaniard kills the Six Fingered Man mostly dead and then he’s revived. You say this counts towards his win condition but he won’t win until he actually dies - what happens at that point, once the Spaniard does win? Is he removed? Does the game end? Does he just sort of sit around? 

I’ve got no read on Len and a mild village read on Bugsy, because I can see the argument for initial suspicion, but think his defence is very villagery (though I do disagree that elims always want to avoid casting the first suspicion, because IKYKs and differing playstlyles). It’s clear responding to exact points. Agreed with Fifth, basically. 

Given Araris’ explanatory post referenced intent to kill, obligatory LG12 Post Reference (which sometime should probably written up somewhere more useful, at this point...). Anyone who hasn’t read that yet should.

Vague suspicion on Eternum for this post and this one. Ish. Reading them over again, they're not so bad as I initally thought (as they do show progression of thought), but within the three he places suspicion on all three major suspects of yesterday. It reads  as trying to cast suspicion, realising that suspicion is infeasible, and reaching for a different easy target. Eternum. 

Also, by the way, I'm Miracle Max.  I didn't claim yesterday, because that was the only Day I could be lynched and guaranteed dead, which some people would definitely be in favour of for not prolonging the game and/or making the village's job harder and/or D1 I'd be a relatively easy lynch. But now I have to be killed three times, which is really not worth it for either team in my opinion (and if you disagree, then... fine? I guess?). (Also, I wrote a poem and couldn't not share it.)

So, I will be resurrecting each cycle after this one (keeping a Pill so that I do have that guarantee of protection). I have to, if I want to fulfill my win condition in any realistic amount of time - I won't use a Pill till Cycle 3, and then need to resurrect 6 people. I can't really afford to skip cycles. I don't think it's fair to the eliminators to only resurrect their kills, nor to the village to only resurrect lynchees (particularly as that'd kill discussion, which would be awful), so I've decided to flip a coin each cycle and resurrect based on that. I will not tell anyone ahead of time what I've flipped. 

On the subject of elims contacting me, I would have preferred to be village this game (the last time I was village for more than a day, and active, was literally over a year ago >>), so will be trying to find you through analysis just like a normal villager. So please don't contact me, or at most one of you, and ideally when someone's going to die.  That said, I will not reveal any eliminator who has contacted me to the thread. 

@Sart, sorry for delaying the game; hopefully it will be fun enough for people that they don't mind. 

Oh! Also! Do not let this claim run the day cycle. Please discuss other things. Discussion is important, and if I accidentally kill it I will be displeased. 

---

Elenta was a maiden fair and bright
A truly inconceivable good soul,
She healed the sore and dying through the night,
Uncaring of elim or village role. 

They called her Max - wherefore, she did not know,
In truth, they thought Elenta was too lame
Whilst Max had no more Miracles to show,
At least with Max alliteration came.

The day they stormed the palace she did dwell,
With pills to make from crayon art she'd drawn.
And had she named herself would she have fell
So draw she did and waited for the dawn.

But when it came the time for her to lie,
She smiled and said she cared not if she died. 

---

I apologise for the quality, but it's late and iambic pentameter is hard. So Elenta is apparently a 7 year old who goes around healing people? With... crayon art?

[Elenion]

The first thing I should do is clarify
I am not Roberts, nor is Roberts I
I did not wish for Araris to die
Only because of a gut read of mine

(Whew, one paragraph of iambic pentameter and I am done. Yes, I know I used a non-Shakespearean rhyming pattern. )

I am not Wesley/Dread Pirate Roberts and I've had no PM contact with Araris. I defended him because had a good read on him and a bad read on Bugsy, so I followed through with that. It looks like my read on Araris was right--I'm not really sure about the one on Bugsy. I'm getting a villagey vibe from his reaction to the news about Araris. Ditto with Fifth Scholar, but I didn't suspect Fifth yesterday. If Bugsy comes up again in my analysis I'll bring this debate back up, but bashing about opportunism right now isn't really getting us anywhere.

I'm going to take a look at that Araris bandwagon again. With the lynch being so volatile and not settling on a target until the very end of the cycle, I expect at least one voter on Araris to be an elim looking to solidify the vote. That assumes there was an elim with a vote on them, but there were enough different people accruing votes that I think it's a safe assumption.

Eternum: Gets the first vote on Araris, but rereads later and has an opportunity to take it off, but retains it. Elbereth points out that he suspected all three of us at the center of the issue yesterday at some time or another, but I'm not reading anything elim-y in it. It just seems like he's looking for a way to spot an elim in the bunch, and different things he's looking at are giving different results. Solid neutral read, because he could be faking, but he could also be village.

Mr. Doctor: Third vote on Araris. This and HH's vote are in the positions that I'm most used to seeing elims in: 3rd and 4th. He clearly chooses a side on the issue (supporting Bugsy because he didn't see anything wrong with Bugsy's post). He justified voting on Araris over me because I was contributing more (for which I am grateful). I don't use contribution to tiebreak votes unless everything else is mostly the same, but that's a matter of priorities. Gun to head I'd say he's village, but this isn't as solid of a read as I have on Doc (see below).

HH: Second-to-last vote on Araris. I mentioned above that 3rd and 4th vote in a wagon is elim territory. He decided to vote on one of [Bugsy, Araris, me] because we were the most vocal players, which I'm not really a fan of particularly because he didn't even really take a side on the arguments presented, other than he said Araris' points looked hypocritical. He said I was a bit weird in my arguments (didn't say what, so didn't take a side on any of the specific issues), but then put me at about equal with Bugsy in his summary sentences, which seems strange to me because he didn't mention any suspicion of Bugsy before then. He could be our man.

Doc: Second vote on Araris, which is a bit early for an elim in my opinion. He voted to create a tie, which have been helpful in past games, and he gave a solid reason not to vote for anyone else already with a vote, plus pointed out that Araris was being very gung-ho. I'm getting a village vibe from Doc.

Fifth: The last vote on Araris. The lynch was already decided when Fifth piled on, and Fifth gave good reasoning for it, so I don't think Fifth was an elim looking to solidify the vote. Maybe they're an elim for unrelated reasons--I don't get much hard evidence for villageness from their post--but this vote doesn't mark them as elim, and I have a good toneread on them. Maybe tied with or just above Mr. Doctor on my trust scale.

So on my trust scale (1 almost certain elim, 9 almost certain village) I'd put Doc at 6.5, Fifth at 6, Mr. Doctor at 5.5, Eternum at 5 neutral, and HH at 4. Voting HH, because he joined in at a good time to ensure the bandwagon on Araris didn't break up (4th vote of 5, and about 2-2.5 hours before turnover), and did so after only considering a small portion of the players and not taking sides on the individual issues discussed.

[DeTess]

It's too early in the day for me to be rhyming,

This truly is terrible timing.

 

Anyway, the discussion centered around Araris, Len and Bugsy for most of the day yesterday. I had my own part in that, of course, but one thing I did notice is that the elims (or anyone else for that matter) seemingly felt no need to move the discussion elsewhere. I made a vote against CadCom in the second half of the day, both because I thought the way he went after straw looked odd and suspicious, and because I wanted to see whether people would jump on a  fourth option outside of the main discussion or not. That vote got pretty much ignored, but if the elims believed one of their own was getting an uncomfortable amount of attention, I would have expected them to try and move discussion away if given a decent excuse. I'm not ruling Bugsy or Len out as elims right now, but it makes me feel a bit better about both of them.

More in depth analysis will follow in about 8 hours or so once I'm back from my internship.