Long Game 46: A Land War in Asia

[Kidpen]

That was bwutal.

[Steeldancer]

REMINDER OF PM RULES: You may only make one PM per night, unless you have a Parrot. Using the Parrot does not require an action. Remember to include me in all PMs. You may not make Group PMs. Thank you for your cooperation. 

[Mr Doctor]

First blood...

----------------------------RP----------------------------

The Dead Private Hobbert stared down that the broken form of Araris—or was it Fade? He stroked the mouse that was tied to his hand in place of his right ring finger. The mouse bit him, and he imagined for a moment that he could feel it.

The Private had seen his share of death. A military man who found himself dragged back to the land of the living with every major conflict always would. But he knew death better than most, what with actually being dead. It wasn’t all that fun. Oblivion tended to get a little bit tedious after the first few eternities you spent floating on the lightless sea. And when you were above ground, you kept on having to run away from the dogs that thought you were a nice piece of mobile jerky. He felt a sort of kinship with the corpse on the floor.

A few of the other pirates were getting happily drunk on the late Araris’s liquor. Private Hobbert took a cup and drank to show his camaraderie, even though he couldn’t taste it and it leaked out of the hole in his oesophagus.

Then, while he thought that the others weren’t looking, Hobbert knelt down by Araris/Fade and started to tug on the body’s left leg. His own was starting to show some signs of wear, and you could never be without too many spare parts.

“Waste not, want not, mate,” he muttered as he looked for the best way to detach it. He smiled—a hideous sight to anyone who had eaten in the last few hours—as he realised that he’d managed to say an entire sentence without that blasted lisp going off.

----------------------------RP----------------------------

I stand by my vote, even though I don’t like the outcome. Araris was the worst of the bunch, but that doesn’t mean that he was bad. He was just unreliable. As I said in my last post, either he was willing to sacrifice Bugsy to get things moving, or he was making a coordinated move. But that’s the only behaviour I have to go on, and I don't feel like it completely justified a Lynch.

I suppose that the first Lynch is always a bit like this, with misunderstanding and overreaction. I think that the Bugsy-Araris fight got blown far out of proportion, and it looks like we already have animosity brewing.

I think that everyone should take a step back. The last thing we need is a Bugsy-Araris fight turning into a Bugsy-Elenion fight, because I think that both of them have just been caught up in something non-constructive, and neither of them have any reason to suspect each other or to be considered suspicious by the rest of us.

1 hour ago, Steeldancer said:

Devotary of Spontaneity (2): Val, Fifth

Bugsy (1): Elenion,

Araris (5): Eternum, Mr Doctor, HH, Doc12, Fifth Scholar

Did Fifth Scholar get two votes? He’s listed as voting for Devotary and Araris, despite rescinding his vote on Devotary in the same post as voting for Araris. And speaking of, it was a little strange to see Fifth get on that bandwagon despite having said virtually nothing all game. I suppose that it’s reasonable that he wanted to cement the vote, as he said, but I haven’t seen any other evidence of him wanting to gather intel. It’s not condemning, but I think that it’s worth pointing out.

[Rathmaskal]

I'm not sure why anyone would want to make sure to cement a vote on the first day like that tbh.  Unless I missed something in the rules (correct me if I'm wrong), I don't think think there's any way for a pirate to KNOW that someone is on team Humperdink...

 

I think blue is for RL?  Anyway, I was playing in an ultimate tournament all day yesterday and today, hence my relative inactivity.  Should be considerably more active from here on out.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

So it appears that someone wasted their rum by removing Bort's vote from Walin, while another player wasted their dagger making Araris vote for Roadwalker. @Steeldancer, can you confirm that Bort's vote should be missing from the tally? He voted on page 8 of the thread.

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Until then, since I should probably vote for someone, Walin, since he's at the top of the list.

I'm guessing Araris's changed vote was the result of a dagger, as Steeldancer's daytime vote tally included Araris's vote for Bugsy. If this is not the case, GM clarification would be appreciated. I'm not sure why someone gave up their role to move that vote; if someone wanted to save Araris or kill Roadwalker they would have been better off moving the vote of someone who had voted for Araris.

[Bugsy]

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This entire Bugsy-Araris-Len exchange has been.. Interesting. Right now, I've begun to suspect that Bugsy and Araris are distancing, and while Len's "defense" of Araris seemed.. unnecessary at best, it's not a priority of mine to think about it, mainly because it could go either way. The fact that Bugsy only reacted to Araris's post (the one @Mark IV quoted) after it was brought up by someone else, despite it being a prime target for accusations, makes me uneasy. So I'll be leaving my vote on Araris for now. Depending on how he flips, if he gets lynched, I want to/will look at Rand, Bugsy and Len as the most contributing (discussion-wise) players this cycle.

Honestly, I had somehow missed that post until I saw it quoted, which is why my response to it was delayed. It was definitely something I should have responded to, yes, which is why I did it as soon as I realized it was a thing  

2 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

REMINDER OF PM RULES: You may only make one PM per night, unless you have a Parrot. Using the Parrot does not require an action. Remember to include me in all PMs. You may not make Group PMs. Thank you for your cooperation. 

To clarify, if someone makes a PM with us, may we make one of our own as well? I'd assume so, but I'd hate to accidentally break the rules.

[Elenion]

Shree King Eels was in general unhappy to find that the priest Araris had been killed. He hadn't participated in it--who knew if Araris had still possessed the knife he had pulled (or at least he thought it had been Araris who had yelled at him earlier), and Eels still found Dread Pirate Cummerbund more suspicious. Once they figured out if Araris was loyal or not, that might help them. If he had been disloyal, that would put Eels in a bad spot for defending him, but at least it was one fewer of the prince's guards running around. If he had been loyal, it would be regrettable, but one fewer knife-wielding priest is never a bad thing. Plus, Eels was still hurt by being called a serial adulterer. Serial implied more than once, and of course Eels was not an adulterer, period. To be an adulterer you actually had to have been in a relationship...

"Before you all killed him, he pulled a knife on me. Did anyone see the knife?"

Wait... he had actually been able to say knife! What about the other word?

"He's dead, so he couldn't have had an extra wife."

Nope, the word life was still coming out as wife. Inconceivable!

[Sart]

Ah. I was under the impression that alignment would be revealed upon mostly death. That makes a lot more sense, and makes Miracle Max less of a problem. He still delays the game via his healing, but it's more or less fair this way. Good to know.

[+ElephantEarwax]

WIP Araris

[DeTess]

Araris got lynched, which is fair enough, given the discussion today. I'm a bit dissapointed that the discussion never got broader than that, but nothing much to eb done about that now (though I still want to hear more from @Cadmium Compounder about his straw vote, and from @Eternum about his Araris vote).

If/once he flips we'll have a better idea of whether there was actually something fishy going on with the votes surrounding him and Bugsy. If he flips elim, I'd take another look at Elenion (as they could be team-mates) and fifth (as that last-minute vote could be someone getting a bus in place after a team-mate looked like they where about to be lynched). If he flips village then I'll take another look at today's votes to see if there was any particular vote that could be attributed to elims piling on.

[Doc12]

Firstly, I'm surprised so much happened while I was asleep (I feel that I should clarify that I'm GMT+8, so the last seven or so hours of the cycle happen while I'm asleep) So Araris got three more votes piled up on him, Bugs and Len continued an argument, and the general consensus (Mr Doctor, Fifth, Rand) concluding that Bugs' first post was NAI. Another significant thing would be Sart coming on and jumped on Roadwalker for his Miracle Max claim, in turn being jumped by Kidpen and Snipexe for that vote.  

Some analysis on some posts last night - 

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Hi guys. Sorry I've not been active yet, but it's been a long weekend without much sleep, and I'm too tired to think about this. I'm planning on getting a decent night's sleep tonight, and will take a look then.

Until then, since I should probably vote for someone, Walin, since he's at the top of the list.

-Bort

What? Why...? Besides the stated reason - which in itself doesn't make much sense, I notice that this ties the vote between Devotary, Araris and Bugsy, turning it into a four-way tie. I again, don't see much advantage for this except for the fact that it gives Walin an advantage in the tie that would occur - Does this make the chances that the other lynchees would die higher, while still guaranteeing Walin's survival?

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It's currently 3am for me, but I'll be up in time for the end of Day One. Until then, I'll leave my thoughts and my vote here.

I don’t like the way that Araris and Elenion jumped on Bugsy in the way that they did. Bugsy made an innocent statement that didn't seem at all suspicious from a technical standpoint, and justified it well with a follow-up post, but they haven't yet rescinded their votes. That may change, but it currently smells unpleasant to me. Araris was willing to vote against Bugsy for virtually no justification, based on a statement was entirely reasonable on Bugsy’s part, and Elenion followed him.

As Doc, my fellow medical practitioner, pointed out: that’s unsustainable. I can think of two potential conclusions from this. Firstly, they are happy to sow distrust where none needs to exist in the name of getting the ball rolling. Secondly, and perhaps worse, they’re coordinating. Either option is not nice in my books. If they will happily sacrifice the integrity and net trust of the Village, then I’m not sure if they should be considered reliable, regardless of roles. If they’re coordinating, then we have a bigger problem.

However, Elenion has offered helpful posts earlier, and appears to be well-engaged in this game. Since the vote against Bugsy only a small part of his activity so far, and the bulk of it has been discussion on the game mechanics, I’m more willing to trust him to try and move things along with a vote. Regardless, this has earned him a place on a list.

Araris was the instigator of this attack on Bugsy, and he doesn’t nearly have the saving graces that Elenion does. I can’t say that I have any idea about Araris's alignment, but as I stated earlier, either conclusion from this is not good, which means that voting on him is my best option.

I hope that everyone’s names can be cleared and we can resolve it before this turns into something worse.

Just to note - I don't think Len was following Araris specifically, more that he jumped on Randuir's questioning, which brings us to this - 

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(In the voting post)

Bugsy, because I agree with Rand that you looked very opportunistic there, and because I'm not seeing much better stuff to vote off of at the moment. Araris' post is NAI at worst and slightly village at best.

(In a later post)

My vote differs from yours for two reasons. I didn't do the opportunistic set-up for a later vote; I put my vote down right away. I also didn't think you had good reason to vote on Araris, but I had reason to vote on you because you were taking something that Araris did that I was reading village on, and then spun it in a way that made him look guilty. That looks elim-y, so I voted on you, with that vote also moving the lynch away from Devotary (who is being voted on for no in-game reason).

-Elenion

Well, no, you didn't do the set up for the vote, but you did vote on Bugs based on what could be perceived as a setup by Randuir, who first mused on Bugsy's post as being oportunistic.  So... sure, your vote differed from Bugs in that you didn't do the set-up. It could be argued that a setup by one elim followed by a vote by another elim would be even better of a strategy than the same one posting, and then voting in a later post. Not that this means I think you're an elim just yet, it does seem a little too careless, but... Well, you've never been shy about drawing attention to yourself, have you?  In any case, hope you understand where I'm coming from. 

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Not only that, Araris did rescind his poke vote after my initial post in response, and placed it back soon thereafter. That seems a bit suspicious to me; he rescinded his vote to make it look as if he weren't sticking to his guns on a poke vote, and then placed it back once I became an acceptable target of suspicion. I'm curious as to why. @Araris Valerian, care to provide an explanation? 

I'd disagree that the "set up" was in any way opportunistic. What actual advantage did it convey? It's not as if it set me up to vote later; I could have voted later anyways, and this just would have drawn twice the attention to it - once in my original post, and again in my post with the actual vote. Also, I'd note that my entire point is that Elims don't want to provide the "opportunistic set-up". They wait for someone else to provide the basis for a vote and follow up on someone else's suspicion, divorcing themselves from the responsibility and creating a false sense of consensus. I did exact opposite.

-Bugs

^Basically, what Bugs said. And I highlighted the part about Araris just because it was something worth keeping in mind. 

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Doc

Nice analysis, most of which I agree with. That's also pretty NAI right now (for Doc, at least), but I wouldn't lynch him anytime soon.

Cadmium Compounder

The first time I saw his vote on Straw, I thought it looked pretty suspicious, given that he was voting after establishing that straw was either village or or elim. I thought nothing of it after he backed off after being called out on it, but in hindsight it still looks bad.

-Rand

Awww thanks  But why wasn't it alignment indicative? What's alignment indicative for me?  

Also - note to self to not let Cadmium off the hook completely, they still have not answered to this. 

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

So it appears that someone wasted their rum by removing Bort's vote from Walin, while another player wasted their dagger making Araris vote for Roadwalker. @Steeldancer, can you confirm that Bort's vote should be missing from the tally? He voted on page 8 of the thread.

I'm guessing Araris's changed vote was the result of a dagger, as Steeldancer's daytime vote tally included Araris's vote for Bugsy. If this is not the case, GM clarification would be appreciated. I'm not sure why someone gave up their role to move that vote; if someone wanted to save Araris or kill Roadwalker they would have been better off moving the vote of someone who had voted for Araris.

I'm waiting for Steel to clarify on this, but Roadwalker and Walin were absolutely in no danger of being lynched, not with that huge vote margin on Araris - why would anyone feel the need to use their items on them? An attempt to get them noticed? 

Lingering thoughts - While I think the lynch on Araris was the best choice personally, some of the reasons for the other voters are less clear - that of Eternum and Fifth, particularly. Headshot and Mr Doctor's votes were of the "this is the more suspicious of the choices" variety, while my reasons I believe I have given.

I think Eternum and Fifth's votes might have just been attempts to prove they were active by skimming the thread and plopping down a vote on an acceptable target, something shared by Kidpen and Snipexe when Sart became an acceptable target, but still... hopefully we'll see more reasoning for your votes next time. 

I'll end on the note that I am very much open to PMs, and anyone who has not created their PMs yet should consider PMing me - I'm a decent fellow, I promise! Restful night, my friends. 

 

[DeTess]

7 minutes ago, Doc12 said:

Awww thanks  But why wasn't it alignment indicative? What's alignment indicative for me?  

Actually catching an elim would be. As would hammering the vote against the village to ensure that the elims win . In all seriousness though, I know you're pretty good at this game, so I'll be looking a bit more at your results to get a read on your alignment.

Edited June 4, 2018 by randuir

[Eternum]

7 hours ago, Bugsy said:

Honestly, I had somehow missed that post until I saw it quoted, which is why my response to it was delayed. It was definitely something I should have responded to, yes, which is why I did it as soon as I realized it was a thing  

Mm.. Fair enough. I'm not going to ignore the fact that it might just have been a mistake

2 hours ago, Doc12 said:

I think Eternum and Fifth's votes might have just been attempts to prove they were active by skimming the thread and plopping down a vote on an acceptable target, something shared by Kidpen and Snipexe when Sart became an acceptable target, but still... hopefully we'll see more reasoning for your votes next time. 

I wasn't really trying to seem active. I just felt like keeping my vote on Araris was the best idea, but all I did was skim the thread, as you said.

Now that I reread the last cycle, I'm growing less sure that Araris is indeed an elim. He has been very.. well, forthright. Not really worried about being suspected, not being particularly careful about his posts etc., tells I would rarely, if ever, associate with an elim.

I think that Len coming to Araris's defense could have been an attempt at pocketing. My suspicion that Araris and Bugsy were distancing seems to fall flat, in hindsight.

[Fifth Scholar]

Okay, to explain my vote last cycle a bit more: I had a fairly busy weekend, and not much time to pore over the thread in exhaustive detail (especially with my mind still half in the MR that was wrapping up). The joking around and prevalence of w’s was making it hard to understand the initial section of the posts, which I basically wrote off as NAI, and I focused my time on the big Araris/Bugsy conflict. I didn’t really blame Araris for his slightly indignant reaction, as what Bugsy accused him of wasn’t really great evidence, but given the tone of Bugsy’s post it seemed fairly clear that he was joking. Araris put a vote on Bugsy (I think...did he?) and then Len jumped on Bugsy immediately afterwards, accusing him of being opportunistic. I found this slightly hypocritical, as Len’s vote felt way more opportunistic, but by the time I had left to vote (7 minutes into the cycle) there was basically nobody on Len so I voted on somebody within the three I had been looking at, to hopefully generate information for us to analyze as well as to protect the Araris wagon from vote manipulators. 

I don’t have two votes, but if Steel wants to give me an extra vote, I certainly won’t object.

[Steeldancer]

Borts vote and Scholars vote were GM mistakes. They will now be fixed. 

[DeTess]

16 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

Okay, to explain my vote last cycle a bit more: I had a fairly busy weekend, and not much time to pore over the thread in exhaustive detail (especially with my mind still half in the MR that was wrapping up). The joking around and prevalence of w’s was making it hard to understand the initial section of the posts, which I basically wrote off as NAI, and I focused my time on the big Araris/Bugsy conflict. I didn’t really blame Araris for his slightly indignant reaction, as what Bugsy accused him of wasn’t really great evidence, but given the tone of Bugsy’s post it seemed fairly clear that he was joking. Araris put a vote on Bugsy (I think...did he?) and then Len jumped on Bugsy immediately afterwards, accusing him of being opportunistic. I found this slightly hypocritical, as Len’s vote felt way more opportunistic, but by the time I had left to vote (7 minutes into the cycle) there was basically nobody on Len so I voted on somebody within the three I had been looking at, to hopefully generate information for us to analyze as well as to protect the Araris wagon from vote manipulators. 

Why did you feel this was necessary? If I'm reading this correctly you where not really suspicious of Araris, so why did you want to lock the Araris vote in anyway?

[Steeldancer]

Also, another GM note. I am working until 7, so I will be a few minutes late with ending the cycle. Rollover will also be longer, because I won't have time to finish everything up in advance. 

[Fifth Scholar]

13 minutes ago, randuir said:

Why did you feel this was necessary? If I'm reading this correctly you where not really suspicious of Araris, so why did you want to lock the Araris vote in anyway?

It seemed to be general consensus even before my vote, and would generate a decent bit of information to analyze, which was my main reason for voting him. In addition, while I didn’t like the Araris lynch terribly much, most of the other options looked far worse, and I locked in the Araris vote to guarantee the information I wanted.

[Bugsy]

 

3 hours ago, Doc12 said:

What's alignment indicative for me?  

Excellent question, Doc. I wish I knew the answer  

I know what used to be, but as far as I can tell, that may not work the greatest anymore. I miss the days when I could read you within a cycle  

[CadCom]

13 hours ago, Steeldancer said:

REMINDER OF PM RULES: You may only make one PM per night, unless you have a Parrot. Using the Parrot does not require an action. Remember to include me in all PMs. You may not make Group PMs. Thank you for your cooperation. 

I thought that we could only make one Permanent PM total, unless we had a parrot, which would allow us to make an extra PM every night. So all of us can make a Permanent PM every night? Exciting!

6 hours ago, randuir said:

Araris got lynched, which is fair enough, given the discussion today. I'm a bit dissapointed that the discussion never got broader than that, but nothing much to eb done about that now (though I still want to hear more from @Cadmium Compounder about his straw vote, and from @Eternum about his Araris vote).

If/once he flips we'll have a better idea of whether there was actually something fishy going on with the votes surrounding him and Bugsy. If he flips elim, I'd take another look at Elenion (as they could be team-mates) and fifth (as that last-minute vote could be someone getting a bus in place after a team-mate looked like they where about to be lynched). If he flips village then I'll take another look at today's votes to see if there was any particular vote that could be attributed to elims piling on.

 

5 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Doc

Nice analysis, most of which I agree with. That's also pretty NAI right now (for Doc, at least), but I wouldn't lynch him anytime soon.

Cadmium Compounder

The first time I saw his vote on Straw, I thought it looked pretty suspicious, given that he was voting after establishing that straw was either village or or elim. I thought nothing of it after he backed off after being called out on it, but in hindsight it still looks bad.

-Rand

So, yeah, My vote was just a D1 vote, Which I later retracted, for similar reasons to my original vote. I honestly thought at first that Straw seemed suspicious. It seemed reasonable to me to think that an elim who was not the count would ask a question about the count in the main thread. However, as Straw pointed out, as well as someone else, later in thread, it is less likely for an Elim to make a mistake in thread, because they are going to be more careful so that they don't get put under scrutiny. After straw pointed that out to me, I realized that, so I retracted my vote. Then I was not able to get back on to place another vote before rollover, because it's difficult for me to get on on weekends. 

Currently, I'm attempting to do a quick analysis of D1, and I still need to send out my PM. But I'll post more once my analysis is complete.

[Elbereth]

I exist! Sorry for not doing so for a while.

I'll be at work until rollover (probably. If I'm lucky, I might have time beforehand), but will then read through everything and post something. @Doc12, lovely to see you in a game as well. @Mr Doctor, Elenta is currently an undecided character as yet, since I haven't sat down and thought out what I want. I'll probably decide based on what RP there's already been. 

Beyond that, PMs would be nice if anyone wants to spare one. Talk to you all in the next Day!

[Bort]

Quote from the day cycle from @randuir

Quote

And Bort ninja'd me. @Bort, you do realize that this means Walin is tied first now? That seems a bit much for a random vote, unless you've got actual reasons to suspect Walin.

I had no idea. I have had a hectic weekend on far too little sleep. I've looked in on the thread a few times, but hadn't had time to really read anything. My vote selection was literally pull up the player list, close my eyes, prod at the screen, that one (Edit: Ok, no, rereading day one reminded me, even poking the screen seemed too much effort, so I chose from the top of the list). Just so happened to be Walin. If I did nearly get him lynched because of this, then I am sorry. i would have said it was not my intention, but at the time I wasn't even thinking that much.

This is the first I've been on since, and although no longer mostly dead, I am still slightly dead. I'll be more active from now on, but I want to take the time to read what's happened so far. Then I'll be back with comments.

Edit 2:

@Doc12 - You are reading too much into this. I had no idea who had been voted for or why. I just wanted to get a vote in since I couldn't remember if there was a penalty for not voting - I really need to reread the rules too, they're next.

Out of everyone so far, I am most curious about @Hemalurgic Headshot @Doc12 and @Fifth Scholar - Why did you feel it so necessary as to stack votes on Araris, and sealing his (mostly) death?

Edited June 4, 2018 by Bort

[Sparkrunner]

@Sart

I believe sart voted on me because IF Max turned nasty he could be much more of a help to the elims than to the village.

[Elenion]

6 hours ago, Doc12 said:

Well, no, you didn't do the set up for the vote, but you did vote on Bugs based on what could be perceived as a setup by Randuir, who first mused on Bugsy's post as being oportunistic.  So... sure, your vote differed from Bugs in that you didn't do the set-up. It could be argued that a setup by one elim followed by a vote by another elim would be even better of a strategy than the same one posting, and then voting in a later post. Not that this means I think you're an elim just yet, it does seem a little too careless, but... Well, you've never been shy about drawing attention to yourself, have you?  In any case, hope you understand where I'm coming from.

I wasn't meaning to use Randuir's arguments as a setup, but I see how it could be perceived that way. And no, I never have been shy about that sort of thing.

@Sart I don't think it would be a good idea to vote on Roadwalker. It's true that Max could make things difficult for us if he decided to help the elims, but voting on him and threatening him with the lynch are what's going to make him want to work with the elims in the first place. I know you wouldn't have voted on Road unless you were fairly sure we could get an advantage out of it, so what was the advantage?

[Bort]

11 hours ago, ElephantEarwax said:

WIP Araris

This has to be the best bit of wordplay so far, in my mind at least.

WIP Araris, being West in Peace, I'm guessing, but also, Work in Progress, since he is only mostly dead.

@ElephantEarwax - Brilliant.